[Coal-carbon-pollutant Coordinated Control of Coal Chemical Industry Under Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Constraints].

ABSTRACT

Under carbon peak and carbon neutrality constraints, the coal chemical industry should take stricter measures to tackle carbon reduction. Based on the intensity differences of five major coal and carbon reduction measures applied by the coal chemical industry, which include raw material structure adjustment, fuel structure adjustment, energy-saving technology transformation, terminal capture technology, and industrial structure adjustment, this study adopted the downstream sector demand method and project method, combined with the air pollution reduction model, to predict three scenarios (benchmark, policy, and enhancement) of coal chemical industry peak year and peak amount of coal consumption and carbon dioxide emission, associated with air pollutant reduction row effects. The results showed that coal consumption under the benchmark and policy scenarios of the coal chemical industry is expected to reach a peak in the late period of China's "14th Five-Year Plan", with peak values of 0.96 billion and 0.93 billion tons, respectively. By contrast, under the enhanced scenario, it is expected to peak in the early period of the "14th Five-Year Plan" with a value of 0.91 billion tons. The carbon peak will arrive in the late period of the "15th Five-Year Plan" under the benchmark scenario but in the early and late period of the "14th Five-Year Plan" under the policy and enhanced scenarios, with peak values of approximately 0.64 billion, 0.57 billion, and 0.55 billion tons, respectively. Controlling the construction scale of new coal chemical projects, tapping the space for raw material substitution, and speeding up the energy-saving technological transformation are important measures for coal and carbon control in the coal chemical industry. The implementation of coal and carbon reduction measures of the coal chemical industry will coordinately reduce air pollutant emissions, such as SO2, NOx, PM, and VOCs by 37, 43, 11, and 28 thousand tons per year after 2035.