A simple nomogram for predicting aspiration associated with dysphagia in hospitalized patients after stroke.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Aspiration is a common complication of poststroke dysphagia (PSD) and is associated with poor prognosis and mortality. There is no uniform criterion for determining aspiration associated with dysphagia. The aim of this study was to identify early predictors of aspiration, leading to the development of a simple nomogram for identifying aspiration risk associated with dysphagia in hospitalized patients after stroke. METHODS: Demographic information and clinical characteristics of 330 patients with PSD in the training cohort were utilized to develop a nomogram. The LASSO regression method was used to screen variables, and logistic regression was used to construct the nomogram. Internal validation was performed with bootstrap in the training cohort, and external validation was performed in the validation cohort of another 82 patients. The area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the performance of the nomogram. RESULTS: Seven variables were selected based on LASSO and multivariate logistic regression. The AUC of the nomogram was 0.834 (95% CI, 0.790-0.878) in the training cohort, 0.806 (95% CI, 0.791-0.880) in the internal validation cohort, and 0.882 (95% CI, 0.810-0.954) in the external validation cohort, which indicated that the model had good discrimination. The calibration and DCA curves showed that the nomogram had good accuracy and clinical utility. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we established a nomogram that can be used to identify the risk of aspiration associated with dysphagia after stroke, and patients may benefit from early screening and preventive care.