Trends in prevalence of multimorbidity for chronic diseases in China: serial cross-sectional surveys from 2009 to 2018.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity, individuals suffering from two or more chronic diseases, has become a major health challenge worldwide, especially in populous and prosperous cities, where studies of this phenomenon in China are limited. We examined the prevalence, trends, patterns, and associated factors of multimorbidity from 2009 to 2018 among community-dwelling adults in Guangzhou, China. METHODS: We conducted serial cross-sectional surveys for chronic diseases in Guangzhou, China, in 2009, 2013, and 2018. General and stratified prevalence were standardized using demographic data. Multivariable logistic regression and hierarchical cluster analysis were applied to identify associated factors and to assess the correlations and patterns of multimorbidity, respectively. RESULTS: This study included 23,284 adults aged 18 and over in 2009, 18,551 in 2013, and 15,727 in 2018. The standardized prevalence of multimorbidity increased substantially, with 12.69% (95% CI 10.45-15.33) in 2009, 25.44% (95% CI 23.47-27.52) in 2013, and 35.13% (95% CI32.64-37.70) in 2018 (P for trend <0.001). The highest bi- and triple-conditions of multimorbidity were dyslipidemia (DP) and overweight or obesity (OO) (12.54%, 95% CI 11.68-13.46), and DP, OO, and Hypertension (HT) (3.99%, 95% CI 3.47-4.58) in 2018. From 2009 to 2018, (1) The majority of multimorbidity patterns showed a high prevalence; (2) The percentage of participants with only one chronic condition was found lower, while the percentage with multiple conditions was higher. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of chronic disease multimorbidity in Guangzhou China, has increased substantially among adults. Effective policies targeting multimorbidity are urgently needed, especially for the health management of primary medical institutions.