The choice of reference chart affects the strength of the association between malaria in pregnancy and small for gestational age: an individual participant data meta-analysis comparing the Intergrowth-21 with a Tanzanian birthweight chart.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of small for gestational age (SGA) may vary depending on the chosen weight-for-gestational-age reference chart. An individual participant data meta-analysis was conducted to assess the implications of using a local reference (STOPPAM) instead of a universal reference (Intergrowth-21) on the association between malaria in pregnancy and SGA. METHODS: Individual participant data of 6,236 newborns were pooled from seven conveniently identified studies conducted in Tanzania and Malawi from 2003-2018 with data on malaria in pregnancy, birthweight, and ultrasound estimated gestational age. Mixed-effects regression models were used to compare the association between malaria in pregnancy and SGA when using the STOPPAM and the Intergrowth-21 references, respectively. RESULTS: The 10th percentile for birthweights-for-gestational age was lower for STOPPAM than for Intergrowth-21, leading to a prevalence of SGASTOPPAM of 14.2% and SGAIG21 of 18.0%, p < 0.001. The association between malaria in pregnancy and SGA was stronger for STOPPAM (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.30 [1.09-1.56], p < 0.01) than for Intergrowth-21 (aOR 1.19 [1.00-1.40], p = 0.04), particularly among paucigravidae (SGASTOPPAM aOR 1.36 [1.09-1.71], p < 0.01 vs SGAIG21 aOR 1.21 [0.97-1.50], p = 0.08). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of SGA may be overestimated and the impact of malaria in pregnancy underestimated when using Intergrowth-21. Comparing local reference charts to global references when assessing and interpreting the impact of malaria in pregnancy may be appropriate.

Weight change during the first week of life and a new method for retrospective prediction of birthweight among exclusively breastfed newborns.

INTRODUCTION: Identification of low birthweight and small for gestational age is pivotal in clinical management and many research studies, but in low-income countries, birthweight is often unavailable within 24 h of birth. Newborn weights measured within days after birth and knowledge of the growth patterns in the first week of life can help estimate the weight at birth retrospectively. This study aimed to generate sex-specific prediction maps and weight reference charts for the retrospective estimation of birthweight for exclusively breastfed newborns in a low-resource setting. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study nested in a clinical trial of intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy for malaria with either dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine with/without azithromycin or sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine in Korogwe District, north-eastern Tanzania (Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT03208179). Newborns were weighed at birth or in the immediate hours after birth and then daily for 1 week. Reference charts, nadir, time to regain weight, and prediction maps were generated using nonlinear mixed-effects models fitted to the longitudinal data, incorporating interindividual variation as random effects. Predictions and prediction standard deviations were computed using a linear approximation approach. RESULTS: Between March and December 2019, 513 live newborns with birthweights measured within 24 h of delivery were weighed daily for 1 week. Complete datasets were available from 476 exclusively breastfed newborns. There was a rapid decline in weight shortly after delivery. The average weight loss, time of nadir, and time to regain weight were 4.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.8-4.9) at 27 h (95% CI 24-30) and 105 h (95% CI 91-120) in boys and 4.9% (95% CI 4.2-5.6) at 28 h (95% CI 23-33) and 114 h (95% CI 93-136) in girls, respectively. The data were used to generate prediction maps with 1-h time intervals and 0.05 kg weight increments showing the predicted birthweights and weight-for-age and weight-change-for-age reference charts depicting variation in weight loss from <1 to >10%. CONCLUSIONS: The prediction maps and reference charts can be used by researchers in low-resource settings to retrospectively estimate birthweights using weights collected up to 168 h after delivery, thereby maximizing data utilization. Clinical practitioners can also use the prediction maps to retrospectively classify newborns as low birthweight or small for gestational age.

Pattern of all-causes and cause-specific mortality in an area with progressively declining malaria burden in Korogwe district, north-eastern Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Although death records are useful for planning and monitoring health interventions, such information is limited in most developing countries. Verbal autopsy (VA) interviews are alternatively used to determine causes of death in places without or with incomplete hospital records. This study was conducted to determine all causes and cause-specific mortality in Korogwe health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) undertaken in Korogwe district, northeastern Tanzania. METHODS: The study was conducted from January 2006 to December 2012 in 14 villages under Korogwe HDSS. Vital events such as births, deaths and migrations were routinely updated quarterly. A standard VA questionnaire was administered to parents/close relatives of the deceased to determine cause of death. RESULTS: Overall, 1325 deaths of individuals with median age of 46 years were recorded in a population with 170,471.4 person years observed (PY). Crude mortality rate was 7.8 per 1000 PY (95% CI 7.2-8.4) and the highest rate was observed in infants (77.9 per 1000 PY; 95% CI 67.4-90.0). The overall mortality increased between 2006 and 2007, followed by a slight decline up to 2011, with the highest decrease observed in 2012. Causes of deaths were established in 942 (71.1%) deaths and malaria (198 deaths, 21.0%) was the leading cause of death in all age groups except adults (15-59 years). HIV/AIDS (17.6%, n = 365) was the leading cause of death in individuals aged 15-59 years followed by malaria (13.9%) and tuberculosis. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) including stroke, hypertension, cancer, and cardiac failure caused majority of deaths in elderly (60 years and above) accounting for 37.1% (n = 348) of all deaths, although malaria was the single leading cause of death in this group (16.6%). CONCLUSION: The study showed a significant decline of deaths in the Korogwe HDSS site and malaria was the main cause of death in all age groups (except adults, aged 15-59 years) while HIV/AIDS and NCDs were the main causes in adults and elderly, respectively. Further surveillance is required to monitor and document changes in cause-specific mortality as malaria transmission continues to decline in this and other parts of Tanzania.