Own-price and cross-price elasticities of demand for cigarettes and waterpipe tobacco in three Eastern Mediterranean countries: a volumetric choice experiment.

BACKGROUND: Waterpipe tobacco smoking rates in the Eastern Mediterranean region are among the highest worldwide, yet little evidence exists on its economics. Estimates of demand elasticities for tobacco products are largely limited to cigarettes. This study aimed to estimate own-price and cross-price elasticities of demand for cigarettes and waterpipe tobacco products in Lebanon, Jordan and Palestine. METHODS: A volumetric choice experiment was conducted using nationally representative household surveys. The choice experiment elicited respondents' stated purchases of eight cigarette and waterpipe tobacco product varieties by hypothetically varying prices. Data were analysed using zero-inflated Poisson models that yielded demand elasticity estimates of cigarette and waterpipe tobacco consumption. RESULTS: The study included 1680 participants in Lebanon (50% female), 1925 in Jordan (44.6% female) and 1679 in Palestine (50% female). We found the demand for premium cigarettes to be price elastic (range, -1.0 to -1.2) across all three countries, whereas the demand for discount cigarettes was less elastic than premium cigarettes in Lebanon (-0.6) and Jordan (-0.7) and more elastic in Palestine (-1.2). The demand for premium waterpipe tobacco was highly elastic in Lebanon (-1.9), moderately elastic in Jordan (-0.6) and inelastic in Palestine (0.2). The cross-price elasticity between cigarettes and waterpipe tobacco was near zero, suggesting that the two products are not considered to be close substitutes by consumers. CONCLUSIONS: These results serve as a strong evidence base for developing and implementing fiscal policies for tobacco control in the Eastern Mediterranean region that address cigarettes and waterpipe tobacco products.

Economic research in waterpipe tobacco smoking: reflections on data, demand, taxes, equity and health modelling.

Economic evaluation of tobacco control policies is common in high-income settings and mainly focuses on cigarette smoking. Evidence suggests that increasing the excise tax of tobacco products is a consistently effective tool for reducing tobacco use and is an efficient mechanism for increasing government revenues. However, less research has been conducted in low/middle-income countries where other tobacco forms are common. This paper presents insights from our work on the economics of waterpipe tobacco smoking conducted in the Eastern Mediterranean Region where waterpipe smoking originated and is highly prevalent. The specific areas related to economics of waterpipe smoking considered herein are: price elasticity, taxation, government revenue, expenditure and healthcare costs. This paper aims to provide practical guidance for researchers investigating the economics of waterpipe tobacco with potential implications for other novel tobacco products. We present lessons learnt across five thematic areas: data, demand, taxes, equity and health modelling. We also highlight knowledge gaps to be addressed in future research. Research implications include designing comprehensive assessment tools that investigate heterogeneity in waterpipe smoking patterns; accounting for cross-price elasticity of demand with other tobacco products; exploring the change in waterpipe tobacco smoking in response to a tax increase and analysing the equity impact of waterpipe tobacco control interventions.

Impact of waterpipe tobacco taxation on consumption, government revenue and premature deaths averted in Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine: a simulation study.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the high prevalence of waterpipe tobacco smoking in the Eastern Mediterranean region, evidence supporting its fiscal measures is limited. We modelled the impact of waterpipe tobacco-specific excise taxes on consumption, government revenue and premature deaths averted in Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine. METHODS: We developed a simulation model using country-specific and market share-specific price, consumption and price elasticity data from WHO, UN Comtrade and nationally representative surveys. We modelled increases to specific excise taxes to meet a 35.9% tax burden on 20 g of waterpipe tobacco in Lebanon and Jordan, in line with the global average, and to double government revenues from excise duties in Palestine, which has surpassed this average. RESULTS: Specific excise tax was raised by $1.14 ($0.18-$1.32) in Jordan, $2.41 ($0.03-$2.44) in Lebanon (alongside removal of ad valorem taxes) and $2.39 ($1.72-$4.11) in Palestine per 20 g of waterpipe tobacco. Government revenue increased by $126.3 million in Jordan, $53.8 million in Lebanon and $162.4 million in Palestine while waterpipes smoked decreased by 32.4% in Jordan, 71.0% in Lebanon and 16.3% in Palestine. The corresponding numbers of premature deaths averted annually were approximately 162 000; 1 000 000; and 52 000. DISCUSSION: Increases in waterpipe tobacco-specific excise taxes substantially reduce smoking and increase government revenue and averted premature deaths in Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine. This has positive implications for both public health and financing and should be considered a policy priority.

Factors associated with intentions to quit tobacco use in Lebanon: A cross-sectional survey.

Introduction: The prevalence of tobacco smoking in Lebanon is among the highest globally. This study aims to determine past attempts to quit smoking among adults and identify factors associated with intentions to quit. Methods: A nationally representative telephone survey was conducted between June and August 2022. Eligibility criteria included people aged >=18 years residing in Lebanon. The questionnaire was divided into three components: socio-demographic characteristics, cigarette and waterpipe tobacco use behaviours. Binary logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with intention to quit cigarette and waterpipe tobacco use. Results: A total of 2003 respondents were included in the study. The prevalence of any tobacco product use was 41%, the prevalence of current cigarette smoking was 41% and the prevalence of current waterpipe tobacco use was 20%. Approximately 24% of adults who smoke cigarettes and 26% of those who use waterpipe tobacco had previous quit attempts mainly due to health concerns. Intentions to quit smoking within the next 6 months were reported among 12% of survey respondents. Among adults who smoke, past quit attempts increased the likelihood of intentions to quit cigarette smoking by 5-fold (OR: 5.11; 95% CI: 1.80-14.47, p = 0.002) and waterpipe tobacco use by 7-fold (OR: 6.98, 95% CI: 2.63-18.51, p = <0.001). Age and income were associated with intentions to quit cigarette but not waterpipe tobacco use. Conclusion: Intention to quit smoking was strongly associated with past quitting attempts. Understanding factors associated with intentions to quit can help inform the development of context specific smoking cessation interventions.

From knowledge production to knowledge translation: Waterpipe tobacco control research in the Eastern Mediterranean Region.

Waterpipe tobacco smoking (WTS) rates in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) are the highest worldwide, particularly among young people. Although fiscal policies to curb tobacco use have been recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), implementation has been suboptimal. The Eastern Mediterranean Consortium on the Economics of Waterpipe Tobacco Smoking (ECON-WTS) was formed in response to this need to produce knowledge on the economics of WTS in the EMR and apply a comprehensive Knowledge translation (KT) framework. The KT framework comprised priority setting, evidence synthesis, knowledge translation, and knowledge uptake. In this article, we discuss the approaches followed in applying the KT framework to WTS control, providing examples and noting challenges and lessons learned where possible.

Health and economic impacts of introducing specific excise tax to waterpipe tobacco in Egypt: a simulation model of simple and mixed tax policy approaches.

INTRODUCTION: Waterpipe tobacco is taxed at half the rate of cigarettes in Egypt and, unlike cigarettes, does not have a specific excise component. We aimed to simulate the introduction of a specific excise tax on waterpipe tobacco consumption, premature deaths and government waterpipe tobacco revenue in Egypt. METHODS: We took model inputs from the latest available data on consumption, market shares and market share prices, price elasticities of demand, tax structure and from discussions with government officials. We modelled increases to specific excise to produce a 45%, 55%, 65% and 75% tax burden and compared a simple (specific only) structure with a mixed (specific and ad valorem) structure. RESULTS: Under the simple approach, introducing a US$2.1 specific tax would result in a 75% tax burden with 67% fewer waterpipe tobacco units smoked, 1 004 604 averted premature deaths and a 236% increase in government revenue relative to the current tax structure. At the 75% tax burden, the simple approach resulted in 1.5% fewer waterpipe tobacco units consumed, 9000 more averted premature deaths and 12.7% more government revenue compared with the mixed approach. Results for other tax burdens are presented and remained robust to sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Introducing a specific excise tax on waterpipe tobacco in Egypt can yield considerable government revenue and public health gains. We recommend the simple approach, in line with the WHO recommendations, which produces greater economic and public health gains than the mixed approach and is easier to administer for the Egyptian government.

An effectiveness-implementation hybrid trial of phone-based tobacco cessation interventions in the Lebanese primary healthcare system: protocol for project PHOENICS.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco use remains the leading cause of preventable disease, disability, and death in the world. Lebanon has an exceptionally high tobacco use burden. The World Health Organization endorses smoking cessation advice integrated into primary care settings as well as easily accessible and free phone-based counseling and low-cost pharmacotherapy as standard of practice for population-level tobacco dependence treatment. Although these interventions can increase access to tobacco treatment and are highly cost-effective compared with other interventions, their evidence base comes primarily from high-income countries, and they have rarely been evaluated in low- and middle-income countries. Recommended interventions are not integrated as a routine part of primary care in Lebanon, as in other low-resource settings. Addressing this evidence-to-practice gap requires research on multi-level interventions and contextual factors for implementing integrated, scalable, and sustainable cessation treatment within low-resource settings. METHODS: The objective of this study is to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of promising multi-component interventions for implementing evidence-based tobacco treatment in primary healthcare centers within the Lebanese National Primary Healthcare Network. We will adapt and tailor an existing in-person smoking cessation program to deliver phone-based counseling to smokers in Lebanon. We will then conduct a three-arm group-randomized trial of 1500 patients across 24 clinics comparing (1) ask about tobacco use; advise to quit; assist with brief counseling (AAA) as standard care; (2) ask; advise; connect to phone-based counseling (AAC); and (3) AAC + nicotine replacement therapy (NRT). We will also evaluate the implementation process to measure factors that influence implementation. Our central hypothesis is that connecting patients to phone-based counseling with NRT is the most effective alternative. This study will be guided by the Exploration, Preparation, Implementation, Sustainment (EPIS) framework, supported by Proctor's framework for implementation outcomes. DISCUSSION: The project addresses the evidence-to-practice gap in the provision of tobacco dependence treatment within low-resource settings by developing and testing contextually tailored multi-level interventions while optimizing implementation success and sustainability. This research is significant for its potential to guide the large-scale adoption of cost-effective strategies for implementing tobacco dependence treatment in low-resource settings, thereby reducing tobacco-related morbidity and mortality. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05628389, Registered 16 November 2022.

Gender differences in the price elasticity of demand for waterpipe and cigarette smoking in Lebanon, Jordan and Palestine: a volumetric choice experiment.

OBJECTIVES: This study assessed the extent to which the elasticity of cigarette and waterpipe tobacco products differs between men and women. We also explored the levels of substitution and complementarity in tobacco products among men and women. SETTING: The study examines tobacco elasticities in three Arab countries: Lebanon, Jordan and the West Bank of Palestine. PARTICIPANTS: We used data from nationally representative surveys of adults aged ≥18 years in Lebanon (n=1680), Jordan (n=1925) and Palestine (n=1679). The proportion of women was 50.0% of the sample in Lebanon and Palestine, and 44.6% in Jordan. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: A zero-inflated Poisson regression model estimated own-price and cross-price elasticities for two variations of cigarettes and five variations of waterpipe tobacco products. Elasticities were measured based on eight scenarios of prices. RESULTS: Demand for waterpipe tobacco products was elastic for both men and women. The cross-price elasticities in the three countries indicate the existence of substitution between cigarettes and waterpipe products and by different varieties within each of the two tobacco products. Gender differences varied across the three countries whereby higher cross-price elasticities were observed for women in Jordan and Palestine. For example, the price elasticity for discount waterpipe was -1.4 and -0.6 for women and men in Jordan, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Results on the elasticity of demand for tobacco products and the existence of substitution between tobacco products reveal the higher responsiveness of men and women to changes in tobacco prices. This should be taken into consideration in tobacco control strategies particularly when reducing tobacco consumption via taxation policies.

Prevalence of cigarette and waterpipe tobacco smoking among adults in three Eastern Mediterranean countries: a cross-sectional household survey.

OBJECTIVES: Tobacco smoking is on the rise in the Eastern Mediterranean region. In light of limited surveillance of smoking in the region, this study sought to understand the prevalence of cigarette and waterpipe smoking among adults and the factors associated with smoking in Lebanon, Jordan and Palestine (West Bank only). DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Household surveys were conducted with participants over the age of 18 in Lebanon (n=1680), Jordan (n=1925) and Palestine (n=1679) between June and August 2019. A multistage cluster sampling approach with probability-proportional-to-size random selection method was followed in the three countries. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Gender-specific prevalence rates for cigarette and waterpipe smoking were estimated. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with current cigarette and waterpipe tobacco smoking. RESULTS: The prevalence of cigarette smoking among males and females respectively was 48.6% and 21.5% in Lebanon, 50.4% and 9.1% in Jordan, and 53.4% and 3.1% in Palestine. The prevalence of waterpipe smoking among males and females respectively was 32.7% and 46.2% in Lebanon, 13.4% and 7.8% in Jordan, and 18.0% and 7.9% in Palestine. Cigarette smokers were significantly (p<0.05) more likely to be male, younger and with lower educational attainment across the three countries. Waterpipe smokers were more likely to be young adults across the three countries (p<0.001). They were more likely to be male in Jordan and Palestine, and more likely to be female in Lebanon. CONCLUSIONS: The high prevalence rates of smoking in Lebanon, Jordan and Palestine are concerning. Continued surveillance is key to monitor smoking patterns and inform stronger tobacco control measures.