Future Burden of Ischemic Stroke in Australia: Impact on Health Outcomes between 2019 and 2038.

BACKGROUND: Projections of the future burden of ischemic stroke (IS) has not been extensively reported for the Australian population; the availability of such data would assist in health policy planning, clinical guideline updates, and public health. METHODS: First, we estimated the lifetime risk of IS (from age 40 to 100 years) using a multistate life table model. Second, a dynamic multistate model was constructed to project the burden of IS for the whole Australian population aged between 40 and 100 years over a 20-year period (2019-2038). Data for the study were primarily sourced from a large, representative Victorian linked dataset based on the Victorian Admitted Episode Dataset and National Death Index. The model projected prevalent and incident cases of nonfatal IS, fatal IS, and years of life lived (YLL) with and without IS. The YLL outcome was discounted by 5% annually; we varied the discounting rate in scenario analyses. RESULTS: The lifetime risk of IS from age 40 years was estimated as 15.5% for males and 14.0% for females in 2018. From 2019 to 2038, 644,208 Australians were projected to develop incident IS (564,922 nonfatal and 79,287 fatal). By 2038, the model projected there would be 358,534 people with prevalent IS, 35,554 people with incident nonfatal IS and 5,338 people with fatal IS, a 14.2% (44,535), 72.9% (14,988), and 106.3% (2,751) increase compared to 2019 estimations, respectively. Projected YLL (with a 5% discount rate) accrued by the Australian population were 174,782,672 (84,251,360 in males and 90,531,312 in females), with 4,053,794 YLL among people with IS (2,320,513 in males, 1,733,281 in females). CONCLUSION: The burden of IS was projected to increase between 2019 and 2038 in Australia. The outcomes of the model provide important information for decision-makers to design strategies to reduce stroke burden.

Current and Future Cost Burden of Ischemic Stroke in Australia: Dynamic Model.

BACKGROUND: Stroke remains one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Australia. The objective of this study was to estimate the current and future cost burden of ischemic stroke (IS) in Australia. METHOD: First, chronic management costs following IS were derived for all people aged ≥ 30 years discharged from a public or private hospital in Victoria, Australia between July 2012 and June 2017 (n = 34 471). These costs were then used to project total costs following IS (combination of acute event and chronic management cost) over a 20-year period (2019-2038) for people aged between 30 and 99 years in Australia using a dynamic multistate lifetable model. Data for the dynamic model were sourced from the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset (VAED) and supplemented with other published data. RESULT: The estimated annual total chronic management cost following IS was 13 525 Australian dollars (AUD) per person (95%CI: AUD 13 380, AUD 13 670) for cohorts in the VAED between July 2012 and June 2017. The annual chronic management cost was estimated to decline following IS. The highest cost was incurred in the first year of follow-up post-IS (AUD 14 309 per person) and declined to AUD 9 776 in the sixth year of follow-up post-IS. The total healthcare cost for people aged 30-99 years was projected to be AUD 47.7 billion (95% UI: AUD 44.6 billion, AUD 51.0 billion) over the 20-year period (2019-2038) Australia-wide, of which 91.3% (AUD 43.6 billion) was attributed to chronic management costs and the remaining 8.7% (AUD 4.2 billion) were due to acute IS events. CONCLUSION: IS has and will continue to have a considerable financial impact in the next two decades on the Australian healthcare system. Our estimated and projected cost burden following IS provides important information for decision making in relation to IS.

Societal health and economic burden of cardiovascular diseases in the population with type 2 diabetes in Qatar. A 10-year forecasting model.

AIMS: To predict the future health and economic burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Qatar. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A dynamic multistate model was designed to simulate the progression of fatal and non-fatal CVD events among people with T2D in Qatar aged 40-79 years. First CVD events [i.e. myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke] were calculated via the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equation, while recurrent CVD events were sourced from the REACH registry. Key model outcomes were fatal and non-fatal MI and stroke, years of life lived, quality-adjusted life years, total direct medical costs and total productivity loss costs. Utility and cost model inputs were drawn from published sources. The model adopted a Qatari societal perspective. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of estimates. RESULTS: Over 10 years among people with T2D, model estimates 108 195 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 104 249-112 172] non-fatal MIs, 62 366 (95% UI 60 283-65 520) non-fatal strokes and 14 612 (95% UI 14 472-14 744) CVD deaths. The T2D population accrued 4 786 605 (95% UI 4 743 454, 4 858 705) total years of life lived and 3 781 833 (95% UI 3 724 718-3 830 669) total quality-adjusted life years. Direct costs accounted for 57.85% of the total costs, with a projection of QAR41.60 billion (US$11.40 billion) [95% UI 7.53-147.40 billion (US$2.06-40.38 billion)], while the total indirect costs were expected to exceed QAR30.31 billion (US$8.30 billion) [95% UI 1.07-162.60 billion (US$292.05 million-44.55 billion)]. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest a significant economic and health burden of CVD among people with T2D in Qatar and highlight the need for more enhanced preventive strategies targeting this population group.

A Causal Model for Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease: The Health Economic Model for the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease.

OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to design and develop an open-source model capable of simulating interventions for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) that incorporated the cumulative effects of risk factors (eg, cholesterol years or blood-pressure years) to enhance health economic modeling in settings which clinical trials are not possible. METHODS: We reviewed the literature to design the model structure by selecting the most important causal risk factors for CVD-low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, diabetes, and lipoprotein (a) (Lp(a))-and most common CVDs-myocardial infarction and stroke. The epidemiological basis of the model involves the simulation of risk factor trajectories, which are used to modify CVD risk via causal effect estimates derived from Mendelian randomization. LDL-C, SBP, Lp(a), and smoking all have cumulative impacts on CVD risk, which were incorporated into the health economic model. The data for the model were primarily sourced from the UK Biobank study. We calibrated the model using clinical trial data and validated the model against the observed UK Biobank data. Finally, we performed an example health economic analysis to demonstrate the utility of the model. The model is open source. RESULTS: The model performed well in all validation tests. It was able to produce interpretable and plausible (consistent with expectations of the existing literature) results from an example health economic analysis. CONCLUSIONS: We have constructed an open-source health economic model capable of incorporating the cumulative effect of LDL-C (ie, cholesterol years), SBP (SBP-years), Lp(a), and smoking on lifetime CVD risk.

Patterns of 12-Month Post-Myocardial Infarction Medication Use According to Revascularisation Strategy: Analysis of 15,339 Admissions in Victoria, Australia.

AIM: Clinical guidelines recommend secondary prevention medications following myocardial infarction (MI) regardless of revascularisation strategy. Studies suggest that there is variation in post-MI medication use following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and coronary artery bypass grafts (CABG). We investigated initial dispensing and 12-month patterns of medication use according to revascularisation strategy following non-ST-elevation MI (NSTEMI). METHOD: We included all public and private hospital admissions for NSTEMI for patients aged ≥30 years in Victoria, Australia, between July 2012 and June 2017. We investigated initial dispensing of P2Y12 inhibitors (P2Y12i), statins (total and high intensity), angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors (ACEi)/angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB), and beta blockers within 60 days after discharge. Twelve-month post-MI medication use was estimated as the proportion of days covered (PDC) over a 12-month period from the date of hospital discharge. Analyses were performed using adjusted regression models, stratified by revascularisation strategy. RESULTS: There were 15,399 admissions for NSTEMI: 11,754 with PCI and 3,645 with CABG. Following adjustments, predicted probability of initial dispensing in the PCI and CABG groups, respectively, was 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.93-0.95) vs 0.17 (0.13-0.21) for P2Y12i; 0.69 (0.66-0.71) vs 0.42 (0.37-0.48) for ACEi/ARB; 0.59 (0.57-0.62) vs 0.69 (0.64-0.74) for beta blockers; 0.89 (0.87-0.91) vs 0.89 (0.85-0.92) for statins; and 0.60 (0.57-0.62) vs 0.69 (0.63-0.73) for high intensity statins. The 12-month PDC in the PCI and CABG groups, respectively, was 0.82 (0.80-0.83) vs 0.12 (0.09-0.15) for P2Y12i; 0.62 (0.60-0.65) vs 0.43 (0.39-0.48) for ACEi/ARB; 0.53 (0.51-0.55) vs 0.632 (0.58-0.66) for beta blockers; 0.79 (0.78-0.81) vs 0.78 (0.74-0.81) for statins; and 0.49 (0.47-0.51) vs 0.55 (0.50-0.59) for high intensity statins. CONCLUSIONS: Post-discharge dispensing of secondary prevention medications differed with respect to revascularisation strategy from 2012 to 2017, despite clear evidence of benefit during this period. Interventions may be needed to address possible clinician and patient uncertainty about the benefits of secondary prevention medications, regardless of revascularisation strategy.

Australian Headache Epidemiology Data (AHEAD): a pilot study to assess sampling and engagement methodology for a nationwide population-based survey.

BACKGROUND: There are no robust population-based Australian data on prevalence and attributed burden of migraine and medication-overuse headache (MOH) data. In this pilot cross-sectional study, we aimed to capture the participation rate, preferred response method, and acceptability of self-report questionnaires to inform the conduct of a future nationwide migraine/MOH epidemiological study. METHODS: We developed a self-report questionnaire, available in hard-copy and online, including modules from the Headache-Attributed Restriction, Disability, Social Handicap and Impaired Participation (HARDSHIP) questionnaire, the Eq. 5D (quality of life), and enquiry into treatment gaps. Study invitations were mailed to 20,000 randomly selected households across Australia's two most populous states. The household member who most recently had a birthday and was aged ≥ 18 years was invited to participate, and could do so by returning a hard-copy questionnaire via reply-paid mail, or by entering responses directly into an online platform. RESULTS: The participation rate was 5.0% (N = 1,000). Participants' median age was 60 years (IQR 44-71 years), and 64.7% (n = 647) were female. Significantly more responses were received from areas with relatively older populations and middle-level socioeconomic status. Hard copy was the more commonly chosen response method (n = 736). Females and younger respondents were significantly more likely to respond online than via hard-copy. CONCLUSIONS: This pilot study indicates that alternative methodology is needed to achieve satisfactory engagement in a future nationwide migraine/MOH epidemiological study, for example through inclusion of migraine screening questions in well-resourced, interview-based national health surveys that are conducted regularly by government agencies. Meanwhile, additional future research directions include defining and addressing treatment gaps to improve migraine awareness, and minimise under-diagnosis and under-treatment.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of short-stay programmes for total hip and knee replacement, focusing on safety and optimal patient selection.

BACKGROUND: Short-stay joint replacement programmes are used in many countries but there has been little scrutiny of safety outcomes in the literature. We aimed to systematically review evidence on the safety of short-stay programmes versus usual care for total hip (THR) and knee replacement (KR), and optimal patient selection. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-experimental studies including a comparator group reporting on 14 safety outcomes (hospital readmissions, reoperations, blood loss, emergency department visits, infection, mortality, neurovascular injury, other complications, periprosthetic fractures, postoperative falls, venous thromboembolism, wound complications, dislocation, stiffness) within 90 days postoperatively in adults ≥ 18 years undergoing primary THR or KR were included. Secondary outcomes were associations between patient demographics or clinical characteristics and patient outcomes. Four databases were searched between January 2000 and May 2023. Risk of bias and certainty of the evidence were assessed. RESULTS: Forty-nine studies were included. Based upon low certainty RCT evidence, short-stay programmes may not reduce readmission (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.12-7.43); blood transfusion requirements (OR 1.75, 95% CI 0.27-11.36); neurovascular injury (OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.01-7.92); other complications (OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.26-1.53); or stiffness (OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.53-2.05). For registry studies, there was no difference in readmission, infection, neurovascular injury, other complications, venous thromboembolism, or wound complications but there were reductions in mortality and dislocations. For interrupted time series studies, there was no difference in readmissions, reoperations, blood loss volume, emergency department visits, infection, mortality, or neurovascular injury; reduced odds of blood transfusion and other complications, but increased odds of periprosthetic fracture. For other observational studies, there was an increased risk of readmission, no difference in blood loss volume, infection, other complications, or wound complications, reduced odds of requiring blood transfusion, reduced mortality, and reduced venous thromboembolism. One study examined an outcome relevant to optimal patient selection; it reported comparable blood loss for short-stay male and female participants (p = 0.814). CONCLUSIONS: There is low certainty evidence that short-stay programmes for THR and KR may have non-inferior 90-day safety outcomes. There is little evidence on factors informing optimal patient selection; this remains an important knowledge gap.

Stakeholder perspectives on short-stay joint replacement programs: results from a national cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The capacity to meet anticipated growth in joint replacement demand requires safe, efficient models of care. While short-stay joint replacement programs are being used internationally, they have not been widely implemented in many countries. Importantly, the critical challenges that need to be addressed ahead of large-scale program implementation remain unclear. This study aimed to investigate stakeholder perspectives on short-stay joint replacement programs, including perceived barriers and enablers to implementation and sustainability, and understand current practices in Australia. METHODS: Four key stakeholder groups were invited to participate in this national study: (1) health professionals who provide joint replacement care; (2) hospital administrators involved in joint replacement provision; (3) patients with recent joint replacement; and (4) carers of people with recent joint replacement. Data on perceived feasibility (0 (not at all feasible) - 10 (highly feasible), appeal (0 (not at all appealing) - 10 (highly appealing), current practices, and barriers and enablers were collected using visual analogue scales, multiple response option and open-ended questions, via an online platform. Descriptive analysis and free-text content analysis was undertaken. RESULTS: Data were available from 1,445 participants including 360 health professionals, 20 hospital administrators, 1,034 patients, and 31 carers. Short-stay program implementation was considered moderately feasible by health professionals (median 6, interquartile range (IQR) 3-8) and hospital administrators (median 5, IQR 5-6). Short-stay programs were moderately appealing to patients (median 7, IQR 2-9) but of little appeal to carers (median 3, IQR 1-7). Prominent implementation barriers included perceived limited appropriateness of short-stay programs, inadequate home supports, and issues around reimbursement models or program funding. Not having daily physiotherapy access and concerns about pain and mobility at home were common barriers for patients. Concern about patients' ability to manage daily activities was the most common barrier for carers. Access to post-discharge services, better funding models, improved staffing, and consistent protocols and national care standards were prominent enablers. CONCLUSIONS: This national study has uniquely captured multiple stakeholder perspectives on short-stay joint replacement programs. The findings can guide future quality improvement and implementation initiatives and the development of resources to best support patients, carers, clinicians, and hospitals.

The Burden of Type 2 Diabetes on the Productivity and Economy in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Life Table Modelling Analysis from a South African Perspective.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is rapidly increasing in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). T2D increases the risk of premature death and reduces quality of life and work productivity. This population life table modelling analysis evaluated the impact of T2D in terms of productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs) on the South African working-age population. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Life table modelling was employed to simulate the follow-up of individuals aged 20-65 with T2D in South Africa (SA). Two life table models were developed to simulate health outcomes for a SA cohort with and without diabetes. The difference in the number of deaths, years of life lost (YLL), and PALYs lost between the two cohorts represented the burden of diabetes. Scenarios were simulated in which the proportions of gross domestic productivity (GDP), productivity indices, labour force dropout, and mortality risk trends were adjusted to lower and upper uncertainty bounds. Data were sourced from the International Diabetes Federation, Statistics SA, and both publicly available and published sources. We utilised the World Health Organization (WHO) standard annual discount rate of 3% for YLL and PALYs. RESULTS: In 2019, an estimated 9.5% (7.68% men and 11.37% women) or 3.2 million total working-age people had T2D in SA. Simulated follow-up until retirement predicted 669,427 excess mortality, a loss of 6.2 million years of life (9.3%) and 13 million PALYs (30.6%) in SA. On average, this resulted in 3.1 PALYs lost per person. Based on the GDP per full-time employee in 2019, the PALYs loss equated to US$223 billion, or US$69,875 per person. CONCLUSIONS: This study emphasises the significant impact of T2D on society and the economy. Relatively modest T2D prevention and treatment management enhancement could lead to substantial economic benefits in SA.

Evaluating Health and Well-Being Returns on Investment in a Cancer Biobank.

Objectives: To evaluate the population health returns from investment in the Victorian Cancer Biobank (VCB), a research consortium including five hospital-integrated sample repositories located in Melbourne, Australia. Methods: This economic evaluation assigned monetary values to the health gains attributable to VCB-supported research. These were then compared with the total investment in VCB infrastructure since inception (2006-2022) to determine the return on investment (ROI). A time lag of 40 years was incorporated, recognizing the delay from investment to impact in scientific research. Health gains were therefore measured for the years 2046-2066, with a 3% discount rate applied. Health gains were measured in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to VCB-associated research, with monetary cost assigned via the standardized value of a statistical life year (AU$227,000). The age-standardized DALY rate attributable to cancer was modeled for two standpoints (1) extrapolating the current decreasing trajectory and (2) assuming nil future improvement from current rates, with 33% of the difference attributed to scientific innovation. The proportion of the aggregate health gain attributable to VCB-supported research was estimated from the number of VCB-credited scientific publications as a proportion of total oncology publications over the same period. Results: The AU$32,628,016 of public funding invested in VCB activities over the years 2006-2022 is projected to generate AU$84,561,373 in total (discounted) savings. ROI was AU$1.59 for each AU$1 invested. Conclusions: The VCB offers a strong ROI in terms of impacts on health, justifying the expenditure of public funds and supporting the use of biobanks to advance scientific research.

Substitution of a Traditional Face-to-Face Workshop With Virtual Escape Room in Higher Education: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Online education games are gaining ground in health profession education, yet there is limited literature on its costs. This study is an economic evaluation of the substitution of a face-to-face (F2F) workshop with an online escape room game teaching the same content. METHODS: A traditional F2F workshop on hepatitis management was conducted with 364 students in 2021 and was compared with a virtual self-run escape room game called Hepatitiscape™, which was used by 417 students in 2022. The outcomes were final examination and objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) scores for hepatitis stations. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was used to compare costs and outcomes. Student perceptions of the delivery of Hepatitiscape™ were also captured using an online questionnaire. RESULTS: Delivering the hepatitis case workshop via Hepatitiscape™ yielded an additional 4.77% increase in the final examination score and a 21.04% increase in the OSCE score at an additional cost of AUD $4212 in the first year compared with F2F delivery. This equated to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of AUD 883 per additional score of final examination and AUD 200 per additional score of OSCE for hepatitis stations. Hepatitiscape™ became cost saving from the second year onward. Student perception data revealed their recall of content was higher owing to the iterative design of the gaming elements. CONCLUSIONS: Hepatitiscape™ is likely to be a cost-effective strategy to deliver workshops that are routinely delivered F2F to test knowledge-based constructs. In addition, virtual gaming has a logistical advantage over F2F delivery in that it enhances student participation from remote locations and allows for better control and flexibility of content delivery with increasing or decreasing cohort sizes, and can have potential long-term sustainable savings.

Work productivity, quality of life, and care needs: An unfolding epilepsy burden revealed in the Australian Epilepsy Project pilot study.

OBJECTIVE: Epilepsy is a common and serious neurological disorder. This cross-sectional analysis addresses the burden of epilepsy at different stages of the disease. METHODS: This pilot study is embedded within the Australian Epilepsy Project (AEP), aiming to provide epilepsy support through a national network of dedicated sites. For this analysis, adults aged 18-65 years with first unprovoked seizure (FUS), newly diagnosed epilepsy (NDE), or drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE) were recruited between February-August 2022. Baseline clinicodemographic data were collected from the participants who completed questionnaires to assess their quality of life (QOLIE-31, EQ-5D-5L), work productivity (Work Productivity and Activity Impairment [WPAI]), and care needs. Univariate analysis and multivariate regression was performed. RESULTS: 172 participants formed the study cohort (median age 34, interquartile range [IQR]: 26-45), comprising FUS (n = 44), NDE (n = 53), and DRE (n = 75). Mean QOLIE-31 score was 56 (standard deviation [SD] ± 18) and median EQ-5D-5L score was 0.77 (IQR: 0.56-0.92). QOLIE-31 but not EQ-5D-5L scores were significantly lower in the DRE group compared to FUS and NDE groups (p < 0.001). Overall, 64.5% of participants participated in paid work, with fewer DRE (52.0%) compared with FUS (76.7%) and NDE (72.5%) (p < 0.001). Compared to those not in paid employment, those in paid employment had significantly higher quality of life scores (p < 0.001). Almost 5.8% of participants required formal care (median 20 h/week, IQR: 12-55) and 17.7% required informal care (median 16 h/week, IQR: 7-101). SIGNIFICANCE: Epilepsy is associated with a large burden in terms of quality of life, productivity and care needs. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: This is a pilot study from the Australian Epilepsy Project (AEP). It reports health economic data for adults of working age who live with epilepsy. It found that people with focal drug-resistant epilepsy had lower quality of life scores and were less likely to participate in paid employment compared to people with new diagnosis epilepsy. This study provides important local data regarding the burden of epilepsy and will help researchers in the future to measure the impact of the AEP on important personal and societal health economic outcomes.

Barriers and enablers to the implementation and sustainability of short-stay arthroplasty programs for elective primary total hip and knee replacement: A systematic review with qualitative evidence synthesis.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to systematically review contemporary evidence on the barriers and enablers to implementing and sustaining short-stay arthroplasty programs for elective primary total hip and knee replacement from the perspectives of patients, health professionals, carers, healthcare administrators, funders and policymakers and to map the findings to the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF). METHODS: Medline, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched (up to 19 August 2023). Primary qualitative or mixed-methods studies reporting on perspectives relating to the review aims that utilised a short-stay programme were eligible for inclusion. Study quality was assessed using the qualitative critical appraisal tool from the Joanna Briggs Institute. Data were analysed inductively. The final themes were mapped to the TDF. The confidence in the findings was assessed using GRADE CERQual. RESULTS: Fifteen studies were included. Twelve barrier themes and twelve enabler themes were identified. Three themes were graded with high confidence, 10 were graded with moderate confidence, three were graded with low confidence, and eight were graded with very low confidence. The most pertinent domains that the themes were mapped to for patients were beliefs about capabilities, reinforcement, and the environmental context and resources. Health professionals identified knowledge, environmental context and resources as important domains. Two domains were identified for carers: (1) social/professional role and identity and (2) memory, attention, and decision processes. CONCLUSION: We identified key barrier and enabler themes linked to the TDF that can be used to guide implementation initiatives and promote the sustainability of short-stay arthroplasty programs.

Cost-Effectiveness of Screening Strategies for Familial Hypercholesterolaemia: An Updated Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to systematically synthesise the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies to detect heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (FH). METHODS: We searched seven databases from inception to 2 February , 2023, for eligible cost-effective analysis (CEA) that evaluated screening strategies for FH versus the standard care for FH detection. Independent reviewers performed the screening, data extraction and quality evaluation. Cost results were adapted to 2022 US dollars (US$) to facilitate comparisons between studies using the same screening strategies. Cost-effectiveness thresholds were based on the original study criteria. RESULTS: A total of 21 studies evaluating 62 strategies were included in this review, most of the studies (95%) adopted a healthcare perspective in the base case, and majority were set in high-income countries. Strategies analysed included cascade screening (23 strategies), opportunistic screening (13 strategies), systematic screening (11 strategies) and population-wide screening (15 strategies). Most of the strategies relied on genetic diagnosis for case ascertainment. The most common comparator was no screening, but some studies compared the proposed strategy versus current screening strategies or versus the best next alternative. Six studies evaluated screening in children while the remaining were targeted at adults. From a healthcare perspective, cascade screening was cost-effective in 78% of the studies [cost-adapted incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) ranged from dominant to 2022 US$ 104,877], opportunistic screening in 85% (ICERs from US$4959 to US$41,705), systematic screening in 80% (ICERs from US$2763 to US$69,969) and population-wide screening in 60% (ICERs from US$1484 to US$223,240). The most common driver of ICER identified in the sensitivity analysis was the long-term cost of lipid-lowering treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Based on reported willingness to pay thresholds for each setting, most CEA studies concluded that screening for FH compared with no screening was cost-effective, regardless of the screening strategy. Cascade screening resulted in the largest health benefits per person tested.

The cost associated with the development of the antimicrobial stewardship program in the adult general medicine setting in Qatar.

Objective: To estimate the economic impact of the developed antimicrobial stewardship program (ASP) versus the preliminary ASP use, in the adults' general medicine settings in Qatar. Methods: Patient records were retrospectively reviewed during two periods: preliminary ASP was defined as the 12 months following ASP implementation (i.e. May 2015-April 2016), and developed ASP was defined as the last 12 months of a 5-year ASP implementation in Hamad Medical Corporation (HMC) (i.e. February 2019-January 2020). The economic impact was the overall cost savings in resource use, including operational costs, plus the cost avoidance associated with ASP. Results: A total of 500 patients were included in the study. The operational costs decreased with the developed ASP. Whereas antimicrobial consumption and resource utilisation, and their associated costs, appear to have declined with the developed ASP, with a cost saving of QAR458 (US$125) per 100-patient beds, the avoided cost was negative, by QAR4,807 (US$1,317) per 100-patient beds, adding to a total QAR4,224 (US$1,160) increase in the 100-patient beds cost after ASP development. Conclusions: Despite that the developed ASP attained a total cost saving QAR458 (US$125) per 100-patient beds, the avoided cost was QAR-4,807 (US$-1,317) per 100-patient beds, which exceeded the cost savings achieved.

Ambient PM2.5 and productivity-adjusted life years lost in Brazil: a national population-based study.

Enormous health burden has been associated with air pollution and its effects continue to grow. However, the impact of air pollution on labour productivity at the population level is still unknown. This study assessed the association between premature death due to PM2.5 exposure and the loss of productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs), in Brazil. We applied a novel variant of the difference-in-difference (DID) approach to assess the association. Daily all-cause mortality data in Brazil were collected from 2000-2019. The PALYs lost increased by 5.11% (95% CI: 4.10-6.13%), for every 10 µg/m3 increase in the 2-day moving average of PM2.5. A total of 9,219,995 (95% CI: 7,491,634-10,921,141) PALYs lost and US$ 268.05 (95% CI: 217.82-317.50) billion economic costs were attributed to PM2.5 exposure, corresponding to 7.37% (95% CI: 5.99-8.73%) of the total PALYs lost due to premature death. This study also found that 5,005,306 PALYs could be avoided if the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guideline (AQG) level was met. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that ambient PM2.5 exposure is associated with a considerable labour productivity burden relating to premature death in Brazil, while over half of the burden could be prevented if the WHO AQG was met. The findings highlight the need to reduce ambient PM2.5 levels and provide strong evidence for the development of strategies to mitigate the economic impacts of air pollution.

Health economic analysis of polygenic risk score use in primary prevention of coronary artery disease - A system dynamics model.

Background: Primary prevention programs utilising traditional risk scores fail to identify all individuals who suffer acute cardiovascular events. We aimed to model the impact and cost effectiveness of incorporating a Polygenic risk scores (PRS) into the cardiovascular disease CVD primary prevention program in Australia, using a whole-of-system model. Methods: System dynamics models, encompassing acute and chronic CVD care in the Australian healthcare setting, assessing the cost-effectiveness of incorporating a CAD-PRS in the primary prevention setting. The time horizon was 10-years. Results: Pragmatically incorporating a CAD-PRS in the Australian primary prevention setting in middle-aged individuals already attending a Heart Health Check (HHC) who are determined to be at low or moderate risk based on the 5-year Framingham risk score (FRS), with conservative assumptions regarding uptake of PRS, could have prevented 2, 052 deaths over 10-years, and resulted in 24, 085 QALYs gained at a cost of $19, 945 per QALY with a net benefit of $724 million. If all Australians overs the age of 35 years old had their FRS and PRS performed, and acted upon, 12, 374 deaths and 60, 284 acute coronary events would be prevented, with 183, 682 QALYs gained at a cost of $18, 531 per QALY, with a net benefit of $5, 780 million. Conclusions: Incorporating a CAD-PRS in a contemporary primary prevention setting in Australia would result in substantial health and societal benefits and is cost-effective. The broader the uptake of CAD-PRS in the primary prevention setting in middle-aged Australians, the greater the impact and the more cost-effective the strategy.

Estimating the Health Care Expenditure to Manage and Care for Type 2 Diabetes in Nepal: A Patient Perspective.

Background. This study aimed to estimate the health care expenditure for managing type 2 diabetes (T2D) in the community setting of Nepal. Methods. This is a baseline cross-sectional study of a heath behavior intervention that was conducted between September 2021 and February 2022 among patients with T2D (N = 481) in the Kavrepalanchok and Nuwakot districts of Nepal. Bottom-up and micro-costing approaches were used to estimate the health care costs and were stratified according to residential status and the presence of comorbid conditions. A generalized linear model with a log-link and gamma distribution was applied for modeling the continuous right-skewed costs, and 95% confidence intervals were obtained from 10,000 bootstrapping resampling techniques. Results. Over 6 months the mean health care resource cost to manage T2D was US $22.87 per patient: 61% included the direct medical cost (US $14.01), 15% included the direct nonmedical cost (US $3.43), and 24% was associated with productivity losses (US $5.44). The mean health care resource cost per patient living in an urban community (US $24.65) was about US $4.95 higher than patients living in the rural community (US $19.69). The health care costs per patient with comorbid conditions was US $22.93 and was US $22.81 for those without comorbidities. Patients living in rural areas had 16% lower health care expenses compared with their urban counterparts. Conclusion. T2D imposes a substantial financial burden on both the health care system and individuals. There is a need to establish high-value care treatment strategies for the management of T2D to reduce the high health care expenses. Highlights: More than 60% of health care expenses comprise the direct medical cost, 15% direct nonmedical cost, and 24% patient productivity losses. The costs of diagnosis, hospitalization, and recommended foods were the main drivers of health care costs for managing type 2 diabetes.Health care expenses among patients living in urban communities and patients with comorbid conditions was higher compared with those in rural communities and those with without comorbidities.The results of this study are expected to help integrate diabetes care within the existing primary health care systems, thereby reducing health care expenses and improving the quality of diabetes care in Nepal.

Combined population genomic screening for three high-risk conditions in Australia: a modelling study.

Background: No previous health-economic evaluation has assessed the impact and cost-effectiveness of offering combined adult population genomic screening for mutliple high-risk conditions in a national public healthcare system. Methods: This modeling study assessed the impact of offering combined genomic screening for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer, Lynch syndrome and familial hypercholesterolaemia to all young adults in Australia, compared with the current practice of clinical criteria-based testing for each condition separately. The intervention of genomic screening, assumed as an up-front single cost in the first annual model cycle, would detect pathogenic variants in seven high-risk genes. The simulated population was 18-40 year-olds (8,324,242 individuals), modelling per-sample test costs ranging AU$100-$1200 (base-case AU$200) from the year 2023 onwards with testing uptake of 50%. Interventions for identified high-risk variant carriers follow current Australian guidelines, modelling imperfect uptake and adherence. Outcome measures were morbidity and mortality due to cancer (breast, ovarian, colorectal and endometrial) and coronary heart disease (CHD) over a lifetime horizon, from healthcare-system and societal perspectives. Outcomes included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), discounted 5% annually (with 3% discounting in scenario analysis). Findings: Over the population lifetime (to age 80 years), the model estimated that genomic screening per-100,000 individuals would lead to 747 QALYs gained by preventing 63 cancers, 31 CHD cases and 97 deaths. In the total model population, this would translate to 31,094 QALYs gained by preventing 2612 cancers, 542 non-fatal CHD events and 4047 total deaths. At AU$200 per-test, genomic screening would require an investment of AU$832 million for screening of 50% of the population. Our findings suggest that this intervention would be cost-effective from a healthcare-system perspective, yielding an ICER of AU$23,926 (∼£12,050/€14,110/US$15,345) per QALY gained over the status quo. In scenario analysis with 3% discounting, an ICER of AU$4758/QALY was obtained. Sensitivity analysis for the base case indicated that combined genomic screening would be cost-effective under 70% of simulations, cost-saving under 25% and not cost-effective under 5%. Threshold analysis showed that genomic screening would be cost-effective under the AU$50,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold at per-test costs up to AU$325 (∼£164/€192/US$208). Interpretation: Our findings suggest that offering combined genomic screening for high-risk conditions to young adults would be cost-effective in the Australian public healthcare system, at currently realistic testing costs. Other matters, including psychosocial impacts, ethical and societal issues, and implementation challenges, also need consideration. Funding: Australian Government, Department of Health, Medical Research Future Fund, Genomics Health Futures Mission (APP2009024). National Heart Foundation Future Leader Fellowship (102604).