Assessing the contributions of an urban population health initiative to shift political priority towards cardiovascular health: three case studies from Brazil, Mongolia and Senegal.

BACKGROUND: The urban population health initiative was designed as a multidisciplinary, multisector programme to address cardiovascular (CV) disease, specifically hypertension and its underlying causes in the cities of Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia; Dakar, Senegal; and São Paulo, Brazil. This article aims to provide an overview of the history and dynamics of CV disease policy making in the three countries, to present the policy reform contributions of the initiative and its role in the policy agenda-setting framework/process in each country and to identify the enablers and challenges to the initiative for doing so. METHODS: A qualitative case study was conducted for each setting from November 2020 to January 2021, comprised of a document review, semi-structured in-depth interviews and unstructured interviews with stakeholders involved in the initiative. The literature review included documents from the initiative and the peer-reviewed and grey literature with a total of 188 documents screened. Interviews were conducted with 21 stakeholders. Data collection and thematic analysis was guided by (i) the Kingdon multiple streams conceptual framework with the main themes being CV disease problems, policy, politics and the role of policy entrepreneurs; and (ii) the study question inquiring on the role of the urban population health initiative at the CV disease policy level and enabling and challenging factors to advancing CV disease policy. Data were thematically analysed using the Framework Method. RESULTS: Each setting was characterized by a high hypertension and CV disease burden combined with an aware and proactive political environment. Policy outcomes attributed to the initiative were updating the guidelines and/or algorithms of care for hypertension and including revised physical and nutritional education in school curricula, in each city. Overall, the urban health initiative's effects in the policy arena, were most prominent in Mongolia and Senegal, where the team effectively acted as policy entrepreneur, promoting the solutions/policies in alignment with the most pressing local problems and in strong involvement with the political actors. The initiative was also involved in improving access to CV disease drugs at primary health levels. Its success was influenced by the local governance structures, the proximity of the initiative to the policy makers and the local needs. In Brazil, needs were expressed predominantly in the clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: This multi-country experience shows that, although the policy and political environment plays its role in shaping initiatives, often the local priority needs are the driving force behind wider change.

An observational, sequential analysis of the relationship between local economic distress and inequities in health outcomes, clinical care, health behaviors, and social determinants of health.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic status has long been associated with population health and health outcomes. While ameliorating social determinants of health may improve health, identifying and targeting areas where feasible interventions are most needed would help improve health equity. We sought to identify inequities in health and social determinants of health (SDOH) associated with local economic distress at the county-level. METHODS: For 3,131 counties in the 50 US states and Washington, DC (wherein approximately 325,711,203 people lived in 2019), we conducted a retrospective analysis of county-level data collected from County Health Rankings in two periods (centering around 2015 and 2019). We used ANOVA to compare thirty-three measures across five health and SDOH domains (Health Outcomes, Clinical Care, Health Behaviors, Physical Environment, and Social and Economic Factors) that were available in both periods, changes in measures between periods, and ratios of measures for the least to most prosperous counties across county-level prosperity quintiles, based on the Economic Innovation Group's 2015-2019 Distressed Community Index Scores. RESULTS: With seven exceptions, in both periods, we found a worsening of values with each progression from more to less prosperous counties, with least prosperous counties having the worst values (ANOVA p < 0.001 for all measures). Between 2015 and 2019, all except six measures progressively worsened when comparing higher to lower prosperity quintiles, and gaps between the least and most prosperous counties generally widened. CONCLUSIONS: In the late 2010s, the least prosperous US counties overwhelmingly had worse values in measures of Health Outcomes, Clinical Care, Health Behaviors, the Physical Environment, and Social and Economic Factors than more prosperous counties. Between 2015 and 2019, for most measures, inequities between the least and most prosperous counties widened. Our findings suggest that local economic prosperity may serve as a proxy for health and SDOH status of the community. Policymakers and leaders in public and private sectors might use long-term, targeted economic stimuli in low prosperity counties to generate local, community health benefits for vulnerable populations. Doing so could sustainably improve health; not doing so will continue to generate poor health outcomes and ever-widening economic disparities.

Implementing a multisector public-private partnership to improve urban hypertension management in low-and middle- income countries.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease presents an increasing health burden to low- and middle-income countries. Although ample therapeutic options and care improvement frameworks exist to address its prime risk factor, hypertension, blood pressure control rates remain poor. We describe the results of an effectiveness study of a multisector urban population health initiative that targets hypertension in a real-world implementation setting in cities across three continents. The initiative followed the "CARDIO4Cities" approach (quality of Care, early Access, policy Reform, Data and digital technology, Intersectoral collaboration, and local Ownership). METHOD: The approach was applied in Ulaanbaatar in Mongolia, Dakar in Senegal, and São Paulo in Brazil. In each city, a portfolio of evidence-based practices was implemented, tailored to local priorities and available data. Outcomes were measured by extracting hypertension diagnosis, treatment and control rates from primary health records. Data from 18,997 patients with hypertension in primary health facilities were analyzed. RESULTS: Over one to two years of implementation, blood pressure control rates among enrolled patients receiving medication tripled in São Paulo (from 12·3% to 31·2%) and Dakar (from 6·7% to 19·4%) and increased six-fold in Ulaanbaatar (from 3·1% to 19·7%). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides first evidence that a multisectoral population health approach to implement known best-practices, supported by data and digital technologies, and relying on local buy-in and ownership, can improve hypertension control in high-burden urban primary care settings in low-and middle-income countries.

Fostering cardiovascular health at work - case study from Senegal.

BACKGROUND: Of the 15 million annual premature deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs), 85% occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Affecting individuals in the prime of their lives, NCDs impose severe economic damage to economies and businesses, owing to the high mortality and morbidity within the workforce. The Novartis Foundation urban health initiative, Better Hearts Better Cities, was designed to improve cardiovascular health in Dakar, Senegal through a combination of interventions including a workplace health program. In this study, we describe the labor policy environment in Senegal and the outcomes of a Novartis Foundation-supported multisector workplace health coalition bringing together volunteering private companies. METHODS: A mixed method design was applied between April 2018 and February 2020 to evaluate the workplace health program as a case study. Qualitative methods included a desk review of documents relevant to the Senegalese employment context and work environment and in-depth interviews with eight key informants including human resource representatives and physicians working in the participating companies. Quantitative methods involved an analysis of workplace health program indicators, including data on diagnosis, treatment and control of hypertension in employees, provided by the coalition companies, and a cost estimate of NCD-related ill-health as compared to the investment needed for hypertension screening and awareness raising events. RESULTS: Senegal has a legal and regulatory system that ensures employee protection, supports social security benefits, and promotes health and hygiene in companies. The Dakar Workplace Health Coalition comprised 18 companies, with a range of staff between 300 and 4'220, covering 36'268 employees in total. Interviews suggested that the main enablers for workplace program success were strong leadership support within the company and a central coordination mechanism for the program. The main barrier to monitor progress and outcomes was the reluctance of companies to share data. Four companies provided aggregated anonymized cohort data, documenting a total of 21'392 hypertension screenings and an increasing trend in blood pressure control (from 34% in Q4 2018 to 39% in Q2 2019) in employees who received antihypertensive treatment. CONCLUSION: Evidence on workplace health and wellness programs in Africa is scarce. This study highlights how private sector companies can play a significant role in improving cardiovascular population health in LMICs.

Hypertension among South African children in disadvantaged areas and associations with physical activity, fitness, and cardiovascular risk markers: A cross-sectional study.

Childhood hypertension drives hypertension in later life; hence, assessing blood pressure in children is an important measure to determine current and future cardiovascular health. There is, however, a paucity of childhood blood pressure data, particularly for sub-Saharan Africa. This study explores blood pressure and associations with age, sex, socioeconomic status, physical activity, fitness, and cardiovascular risk markers. In the 'Disease, Activity and Schoolchildren's Health' (DASH) study, a cross-sectional analysis was conducted in disadvantaged neighbourhoods in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa. Assessments included blood pressure, accelerometer-measured physical activity, physical fitness, and cardiovascular risk markers. The study consisted of 785 children (383 boys, 402 girls, M = 12.4±0.9 years). Overall, 18% of the children were classified as hypertensive, while 20% were either overweight/obese, and almost four out of ten children did not meet global daily physical activity recommendations. Hypertensive children were more likely to be overweight/obese, χ2 (2,785) = 14.42, p < 0.01, but only if they did not meet physical activity recommendations, χ2 (2,295) = 11.93, p < 0.01. Considering the moderating effect which sufficient activity has on the relationship between hypertension and body weight, more emphasis should be placed on early primary health intervention and education strategies.

Towards improved health service quality in Tanzania: appropriateness of an electronic tool to assess quality of primary healthcare.

BACKGROUND: Progress in health service quality is vital to reach the target of Universal Health Coverage. However, in order to improve quality, it must be measured, and the assessment results must be actionable. We analyzed an electronic tool, which was developed to assess and monitor the quality of primary healthcare in Tanzania in the context of routine supportive supervision. The electronic assessment tool focused on areas in which improvements are most effective in order to suit its purpose of routinely steering improvement measures at local level. METHODS: Due to the lack of standards regarding how to best measure quality of care, we used a range of different quantitative and qualitative methods to investigate the appropriateness of the quality assessment tool. The quantitative methods included descriptive statistics, linear regression models, and factor analysis; the qualitative methods in-depth interviews and observations. RESULTS: Quantitative and qualitative results were overlapping and consistent. Robustness checks confirmed the tool's ability to assign scores to health facilities and revealed the usefulness of grouping indicators into different quality dimensions. Focusing the quality assessment on processes and structural adequacy of healthcare was an appropriate approach for the assessment's intended purpose, and a unique key feature of the electronic assessment tool. The findings underpinned the accuracy of the assessment tool to measure and monitor quality of primary healthcare for the purpose of routinely steering improvement measures at local level. This was true for different level and owner categories of primary healthcare facilities in Tanzania. CONCLUSION: The electronic assessment tool demonstrated a feasible option for routine quality measures of primary healthcare in Tanzania. The findings, combined with the more operational results of companion papers, created a solid foundation for an approach that could lastingly improve services for patients attending primary healthcare. However, the results also revealed that the use of the electronic assessment tool outside its intended purpose, for example for performance-based payment schemes, accreditation and other systematic evaluations of healthcare quality, should be considered carefully because of the risk of bias, adverse effects and corruption.

Towards improved health service quality in Tanzania: contribution of a supportive supervision approach to increased quality of primary healthcare.

BACKGROUND: Universal Health Coverage only leads to the desired health outcomes if quality of health services is ensured. In Tanzania, quality has been a major concern for many years, including the problem of ineffective and inadequate routine supportive supervision of healthcare providers by council health management teams. To address this, we developed and assessed an approach to improve quality of primary healthcare through enhanced routine supportive supervision. METHODS: Mixed methods were used, combining trends of quantitative quality of care measurements with qualitative data mainly collected through in-depth interviews. The former allowed for identification of drivers of quality improvements and the latter investigated the perceived contribution of the new supportive supervision approach to these improvements. RESULTS: The results showed that the new approach managed to address quality issues that could be solved either solely by the healthcare provider, or in collaboration with the council. The new approach was able to improve and maintain crucial primary healthcare quality standards across different health facility level and owner categories in various contexts. CONCLUSION: Together with other findings reported in companion papers, we could show that the new supportive supervision approach not only served to assess quality of primary healthcare, but also to improve and maintain crucial primary healthcare quality standards. The new approach therefore presents a powerful tool to support, guide and drive quality improvement measures within council. It can thus be considered a suitable option to make routine supportive supervision more effective and adequate.

Best practices in scaling digital health in low and middle income countries.

Healthcare challenges in low and middle income countries (LMICs) have been the focus of many digital initiatives that have aimed to improve both access to healthcare and the quality of healthcare delivery. Moving beyond the initial phase of piloting and experimentation, these initiatives are now more clearly focused on the need for effective scaling and integration to provide sustainable benefit to healthcare systems.Based on real-life case studies of scaling digital health in LMICs, five key focus areas have been identified as being critical for success. Firstly, the intrinsic characteristics of the programme or initiative must offer tangible benefits to address an unmet need, with end-user input from the outset. Secondly, all stakeholders must be engaged, trained and motivated to implement a new initiative, and thirdly, the technical profile of the initiative should be driven by simplicity, interoperability and adaptability. The fourth focus area is the policy environment in which the digital healthcare initiative is intended to function, where alignment with broader healthcare policy is essential, as is sustainable funding that will support long-term growth, including private sector funding where appropriate. Finally, the extrinsic ecosystem should be considered, including the presence of the appropriate infrastructure to support the use of digital initiatives at scale.At the global level, collaborative efforts towards a less-siloed approach to scaling and integrating digital health may provide the necessary leadership to enable innovative solutions to reach healthcare workers and patients in LMICs. This review provides insights into best practice for scaling digital health initiatives in LMICs derived from practical experience in real-life case studies, discussing how these may influence the development and implementation of health programmes in the future.

The Leprosy Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (LPEP) programme: update and interim analysis.

Innovative approaches are required to further enhance leprosy control, reduce the number of people developing leprosy, and curb transmission. Early case detection, contact screening, and chemoprophylaxis currently is the most promising approach to achieve this goal. The Leprosy Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (LPEP) programme generates evidence on the feasibility of integrating contact tracing and single-dose rifampicin (SDR) administration into routine leprosy control activities in different settings. The LPEP programme is implemented within the leprosy control programmes of Brazil, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Tanzania. Focus is on three key interventions: tracing the contacts of newly diagnosed leprosy patients; screening the contacts for leprosy; and administering SDR to eligible contacts. Country-specific protocol adaptations refer to contact definition, minimal age for SDR, and staff involved. Central coordination, detailed documentation and rigorous supervision ensure quality evidence. Around 2 years of field work had been completed in seven countries by July 2017. The 5,941 enrolled index patients (89·4% of the registered) identified a total of 123,311 contacts, of which 99·1% were traced and screened. Among them, 406 new leprosy patients were identified (329/100,000), and 10,883 (8·9%) were excluded from SDR for various reasons. Also, 785 contacts (0·7%) refused the prophylactic treatment with SDR. Overall, SDR was administered to 89·0% of the listed contacts. Post-exposure prophylaxis with SDR is safe; can be integrated into the routines of different leprosy control programmes; and is generally well accepted by index patients, their contacts and the health workforce. The programme has also invigorated local leprosy control.

Evaluation of a community-based hypertension improvement program (ComHIP) in Ghana: data from a baseline survey.

BACKGROUND: Ghana faces an increasing burden of non-communicable disease with rates of hypertension estimated as high as 36% in adults. Despite these high rates, hypertension control remains very poor in Ghana (4%). The current project aims to implement and evaluate a community-based programme to raise awareness, and to improve treatment and control of hypertension in the Eastern Region of Ghana. In this paper, we present the findings of the baseline cross-sectional survey focusing on hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control. METHODS: To evaluate the ComHIP project, a quasi-experimental design consisted of a before and after evaluations are being implemented in the intervention and comparison districts. A cohort study component is being implemented in the intervention district to assess hypertension control. Background anthropometric and clinical data collected as part of the baseline survey were analyzed in STATA Version 11. We examined the characteristics of individuals, associated with the baseline study outcomes using logistic regression models. RESULTS: We interviewed 2400 respondents (1200 each from the comparison and intervention districts), although final sample sizes after data cleaning were 1170 participants in the comparison district and 1167 in the intervention district. With the exception of ethnicity, the control and intervention districts compare favorably. Overall 32.4% of the study respondents were hypertensive (31.4% in the control site; and 33.4% in the intervention site); 46.2% of hypertensive individuals were aware of a previous diagnosis of hypertension (44.7% in the control site, and 47.7% in the intervention site), and only around 9% of these were being treated in either arm. Hypertension control was 1.3% overall (0.5% in the comparison site, and 2.1% in the intervention site). Age was a predictor of having hypertension, and so was increasing body mass index (BMI), waist, and hip circumferences. After adjusting for age, the risk factors with the greatest association with hypertension were being overweight (aOR = 2.30; 95% CI 1.53-3.46) or obese (aOR = 3.61; 95% CI 2.37-5.51). Older individuals were more likely to be aware of their hypertension status than younger people. After adjusting for age people with a family history of hypertension or CVD, or having an unhealthy waist hip ratio, were more likely to be aware of their hypertension status. CONCLUSIONS: The high burden of hypertension among the studied population, coupled with high awareness, yet very low level of hypertension treatment and control requires in-depth investigation of the bottlenecks to treatment and control. The low hypertension treatment and control rates despite current and previous general educational programs particularly in the intervention district, may suggest that such programs are not necessarily impactful on the health of the population.

Role of contact tracing and prevention strategies in the interruption of leprosy transmission.

The global prevalence of leprosy has declined from 5.2 million in the 1980 s to 200,000 today. However, the new case detection rate remains high: over the last 8 years, around 220,000-250,000 people have been diagnosed with leprosy each year. In June 2013, an international meeting was organised by the Novartis Foundation for Sustainable Development in Geneva, Switzerland,2 with the objective of discussing the feasibility of interrupting the transmission of leprosy. The group of physicians, epidemiologists and public health professionals concluded that a successful programme would require early diagnosis and prompt multidrug therapy (MDT) for all patients, tracing and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) for contacts of patients newly diagnosed with leprosy, improvements in diagnostic tools, as well as strict epidemiological surveillance and response systems to monitor progress. As a follow-up, a second expert group meeting was convened by the Novartis Foundation in January 2014 in Zurich, Switzerland, with the objective of reviewing the evidence for chemoprophylaxis in contacts and high-risk communities. The meeting also considered the definitions of 'contacts' and 'contact tracing', discussed alternative prophylaxis regimens, preliminary findings of operational pilot projects on PEP in Indonesia, as well as the development of diagnostic tools, and identified the priority questions for operational research in leprosy transmission. The meeting outlined how contact tracing and chemoprophylaxis programmes can be implemented to interrupt leprosy transmission. The expert panel reached the following conclusions: Chemoprophylaxis with single-dose rifampicin (SDR) is efficacious in reducing the risk of developing leprosy, although the protective effect appears to be smaller in contacts closer to the index patient than in more distant contacts.3 SDR can be targeted to contacts or implemented as community mass prophylaxis in certain circumstances; the preferred approach depends on local factors, such as the case detection rate, the level of community stigma against leprosy, and the degree of access to healthcare for patients and contacts. Alternative prophylaxis regimens and the role of post-exposure immunoprophylaxis need to be further investigated. Contact tracing combined with PEP across very diverse settings offers protection rates similar to those reported in controlled trials. For high-incidence pockets ('hotspots') or remote or confined high-incidence populations ('hotpops'), blanket administration of PEP may be a better option. Implementation of contact-tracing programmes is feasible and cost-effective, particularly in high-risk groups, but it should be integrated into local healthcare services to ensure their long-term sustainability. Funding and support must be maintained after an initial pilot has finished. New programmes for contact tracing need effective surveillance systems to enable appropriate follow-up and outcome evaluation. The Novartis Foundation and Netherlands Leprosy Relief (NLR) are currently developing and implementing a large international programme to demonstrate the feasibility, acceptability, cost-effectiveness and real-world efficacy of PEP as a strategy to interrupt leprosy transmission, in six pilot projects in Asia, Africa and South America. These new pilot projects will be developed together with the local health authorities, healthcare workers, communities and patients, in order to create local ownership from the outset. The pilots should aim to be scalable and sustainable, and should therefore include an objective outcome assessment. Local ownership ensures that locally appropriate language and definitions of contacts are used in each of the pilots. A test to identify subclinical disease and distinguish M. leprae exposure from infection would facilitate early and appropriate therapy (with PEP or MDT). The identification and validation of new, sensitive biomarkers for M. leprae infection and exposure may allow better targeting of PEP to those contacts at highest risk of developing leprosy.

Rural-urban disparities in health outcomes, clinical care, health behaviors, and social determinants of health and an action-oriented, dynamic tool for visualizing them.

While rural-urban disparities in health and health outcomes have been demonstrated, because of their impact on (and intervenability to improve) health and health outcomes, we sought to examine cross-sectional and longitudinal inequities in health, clinical care, health behaviors, and social determinants of health (SDOH) between rural and non-rural counties in the pre-pandemic era (2015 to 2019), and to present a Health Equity Dashboard that can be used by policymakers and researchers to facilitate examining such disparities. Therefore, using data obtained from 2015-2022 County Health Rankings datasets, we used analysis of variance to examine differences in 33 county level attributes between rural and non-rural counties, calculated the change in values for each measure between 2015 and 2019, determined whether rural-urban disparities had widened, and used those data to create a Health Equity Dashboard that displays county-level individual measures or compilations of them. We followed STROBE guidelines in writing the manuscript. We found that rural counties overwhelmingly had worse measures of SDOH at the county level. With few exceptions, the measures we examined were getting worse between 2015 and 2019 in all counties, relatively more so in rural counties, resulting in the widening of rural-urban disparities in these measures. When rural-urban gaps narrowed, it tended to be in measures wherein rural counties were outperforming urban ones in the earlier period. In conclusion, our findings highlight the need for policymakers to prioritize rural settings for interventions designed to improve health outcomes, likely through improving health behaviors, clinical care, social and environmental factors, and physical environment attributes. Visualization tools can help guide policymakers and researchers with grounded information, communicate necessary data to engage relevant stakeholders, and track SDOH changes and health outcomes over time.

Relationship between Body Mass Index and Physical Activity among Children from Low-Income Communities in Gqeberha, South Africa: A Cross-Sectional Study.

This study aimed to establish the prevalence of underweight, overweight and obesity, the level of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and the association thereof among vulnerable children from low-income communities in South Africa. Cross-sectional data were collected from 916 children (467 boys and 449 girls) aged 8-13 years (x̄ = 10.4 ± 1.2 years) attending eight low-income schools in Gqeberha, South Africa. Measured outcomes included accelerometery-measured physical activity (PA), weight, height and body mass index (BMI). Analysis of variance was used to determine the mean difference of total MVPA stratified by sex and BMI classification. Overall, 13% of the cohort were underweight, 19% were overweight/obese and 64% engaged in 60 min of MVPA per day. Girls presented nearly twice the odds of being overweight or obese than boys (95% CI: 1.40-2.77). Underweight to normal-weight children (boys: OR = 3.89, 95% CI: 2.18-6.93; girls: OR = 1.78, 95% CI: 1.13-2.80) were more likely to engage in 60 min/day of MVPA than overweight to obese children. There is an inverse association between BMI categories and theduration of MVPA achieved per day. Special attention should be aimed at increasing awareness of healthy nutrition and promoting a variety of PA, especially among girls and children with excess weight.

Uses of Social Determinants of Health Data to Address Cardiovascular Disease and Health Equity: A Scoping Review.

Background Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Prior research suggests that social determinants of health have a compounding effect on health and are associated with cardiovascular disease. This scoping review explores what and how social determinants of health data are being used to address cardiovascular disease and improve health equity. Methods and Results After removing duplicate citations, the initial search yielded 4110 articles for screening, and 50 studies were identified for data extraction. Most studies relied on similar data sources for social determinants of health, including geocoded electronic health record data, national survey responses, and census data, and largely focused on health care access and quality, and the neighborhood and built environment. Most focused on developing interventions to improve health care access and quality or characterizing neighborhood risk and individual risk. Conclusions Given that few interventions addressed economic stability, education access and quality, or community context and social risk, the potential for harnessing social determinants of health data to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease remains unrealized.

Population health impact and economic evaluation of the CARDIO4Cities approach to improve urban hypertension management.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality worldwide, with 80% of that mortality occurring in low- and middle-income countries. Hypertension, its primary risk factor, can be effectively addressed through multisectoral, multi-intervention initiatives. However, evidence for the population-level impact on cardiovascular (CV) event rates and mortality, and the cost-effectiveness of such initiatives is scarce as long-term longitudinal data is often lacking. Here, we model the long-term population health impact and cost-effectiveness of a multisectoral urban population health initiative designed to reduce hypertension, conducted in Ulaanbaatar (Mongolia), Dakar (Senegal), and in the district of Itaquera in São Paulo (Brazil) in collaboration with the local governments. We based our analysis on cohort-level data among hypertensive patients on treatment and control rates from a real-world effectiveness study of the CARDIO4Cities approach (built on quality of care, early access, policy reform, data and digital, Intersectoral collaboration, and local ownership). We built a decision tree model to estimate the CV event rates during implementation (1-2 years) and a Markov model to project health outcomes over 10 years. We estimated the number of CV events averted and quality-adjusted life-years gained (QALYs through the initiative and assessed its cost-effectiveness based on the costs reported by the funder using the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) and published thresholds. A one-way sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the robustness of the results. The modelled patient cohorts included 10,075 patients treated for hypertension in Ulaanbaatar, 5,236 in Dakar, and 5,844 in São Paulo. We estimated that 3.3-12.8% of strokes and 3.0-12.0% of coronary heart disease (CHD) events were averted during 1-2 years of implementation in the three cities. We estimated that over the subsequent 10 years, 3.6-9.9% of strokes, 2.8-7.8% of CHD events, and 2.7-7.9% of premature deaths would be averted. The estimated ICER was USD 748 QALY gained in Ulaanbaatar, USD 3091 in Dakar, and USD 784 in São Paulo. With that, the intervention was estimated to be cost-effective in Ulaanbaatar and São Paulo. For Dakar, cost-effectiveness was met under WHO-CHOICE standards, but not under more conservative standards adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP) and opportunity costs. The findings were robust to the sensitivity analysis. Our results provide evidence that the favorable impact of multisector systemic interventions designed to reduce the hypertension burden extend to long-term population-level CV health outcomes and are likely cost-effective. The CARDIO4Cities approach is predicted to be a cost-effective solution to alleviate the growing CVD burden in cities across the world.

Improving hypertension awareness and management in Vietnam through a community-based model.

Hypertension prevalence in Vietnam is high, but few people are aware of their disease status. Detection, diagnosis, and treatment are limited, so new approaches are needed to improve awareness and manage the condition, especially at the primary health care level. The Communities for Healthy Hearts programme operated in four districts of Ho Chi Minh City, with the aim of increasing awareness and ensuring linkage to care. Interventions focused on extending services beyond health facilities to convenient community locations; training cadres of community volunteers to screen, refer, and follow up with clients; training health workers in facilities to diagnose, educate, and manage patients referred from the community; and supporting the process with digital case tracking. Community-based blood pressure screenings took place in client homes, commune health stations, and non-traditional sites such as coffee shops, dentists' offices, marketplaces, neighbourhood watch/security posts, and tailor shops. In total, 121,273 adults aged 40 and older were screened. Of these, 25.1% had elevated blood pressure or a previous hypertension diagnosis and were referred to health facilities. Of those referred, 56.2% were confirmed to have hypertension, and of those confirmed, 75.2% were treated. Of those treated, 51.0% achieved blood pressure control, a favourable outcome over past programmes.

Clustered cardiovascular disease risk among children aged 8-13 years from lower socioeconomic schools in Gqeberha, South Africa.

Objectives: To determine the prevalence of individual cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and clustered CVD risk among children attending schools in periurban areas of Gqeberha and to investigate the independent association between clustered CVD risk, moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF). Methods: Baseline data were collected in a cross-sectional analysis of 975 children aged 8-13 years. We measured the height, weight, waist circumference, blood pressure, fasting glucose, full lipid panel, 20 m shuttle run performance and accelerometry. The prevalence of individual risk factors was determined, and a clustered risk score (CRS) was constructed using principal component analysis. Children with an elevated CRS of 1 SD above the average CRS were considered 'at-risk'. Results: We found 424 children (43.3%) having at least one elevated CVD risk factor: 27.7% elevated triglycerides, 20.7% depressed high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and 15.9% elevated total cholesterol. An elevated clustered risk was identified in 17% (n=104) of the sample; girls exhibited a significantly higher CRS >1 SD than boys (p=0.036). The estimated odds of an elevated clustered risk are doubled every 2 mL/kg/min decrease in VO2max (95% CI 1.66 to 3.12) or every 49 min reduction in MVPA (95% CI 27 to 224). Conclusion: A relatively high prevalence of elevated individual and clustered CVD risk was identified. Our results have also confirmed the independent inverse association of the clustered CVD risk with physical activity and CRF. These indicate that increased levels of CRF or MVPA may aid in the prevention and reduction of elevated clustered CVD risk.

Practice Change Needed for the Identification of Pediatric Hypertension in Marginalized Populations: An Example From South Africa.

Introduction: Hypertension in children has increased globally over the past 20 years; yet, little is known about this issue among disadvantaged communities from low- and middle-income countries. Age-, sex-, and height-adjusted normative tables are the "gold" standard for the diagnosis and estimation of pediatric hypertension worldwide, but it is unclear whether the use of international standards is appropriate for all contexts. The purpose of this study was to evaluate and compare different international references to identify hypertension among South African school-aged children from disadvantaged communities. Methods: Blood pressure, weight, and height were measured in a cohort of 897 children aged 8-16 years from eight peri-urban schools in the Eastern Cape of South Africa. Cross-sectional prevalence of hypertension was calculated according to American, German, and global normative tables, as well as pseudo-normative data from the own study population. Isolated systolic hypertension and body mass index (BMI) were considered markers for cardiovascular disease. Multinomial logistic regression was used to compare the likelihood of blood pressure categorization with increasing BMI levels. Results: Hypertension prevalence ranged from 11.4% with the pseudo-normative study tables to 28.8% based on the German reference. Global guidelines showed the highest agreement both among international standards (92.5% with American guidelines) and with the study reference (72.5%). While the global and the American references presented higher systolic over diastolic hypertension rates (23.6 vs. 10.6% and 24.2 vs. 14.7%, respectively), the American guidelines predicted the highest increased risk for hypertension stage 2 [odds ratio, 1.72 (95% confidence interval: 1.43-2.07)] with raising levels of BMI. Conclusion: Our results support the heterogeneity of blood pressure estimates found in the South African literature, and highlight the underrepresentation of African children in international guidelines. We call for caution in the use of international standards in different contexts and advocate for the development of normative tables that are representative of the South African pediatric population necessary to ensure an accurate identification of hypertension both from the clinical and epidemiological perspective.

Reimagining leprosy elimination with AI analysis of a combination of skin lesion images with demographic and clinical data.

Background: Leprosy is an infectious disease that mostly affects underserved populations. Although it has been largely eliminated, still about 200'000 new patients are diagnosed annually. In the absence of a diagnostic test, clinical diagnosis is often delayed, potentially leading to irreversible neurological damage and its resulting stigma, as well as continued transmission. Accelerating diagnosis could significantly contribute to advancing global leprosy elimination. Digital and Artificial Intelligence (AI) driven technology has shown potential to augment health workers abilities in making faster and more accurate diagnosis, especially when using images such as in the fields of dermatology or ophthalmology. That made us start the quest for an AI-driven diagnosis assistant for leprosy, based on skin images. Methods: Here we describe the accuracy of an AI-enabled image-based diagnosis assistant for leprosy, called AI4Leprosy, based on a combination of skin images and clinical data, collected following a standardized process. In a Brazilian leprosy national referral center, 222 patients with leprosy or other dermatological conditions were included, and the 1229 collected skin images and 585 sets of metadata are stored in an open-source dataset for other researchers to exploit. Findings: We used this dataset to test whether a CNN-based AI algorithm could contribute to leprosy diagnosis and employed three AI models, testing images and metadata both independently and in combination. AI modeling indicated that the most important clinical signs are thermal sensitivity loss, nodules and papules, feet paresthesia, number of lesions and gender, but also scaling surface and pruritus that were negatively associated with leprosy. Using elastic-net logistic regression provided a high classification accuracy (90%) and an area under curve (AUC) of 96.46% for leprosy diagnosis. Interpretation: Future validation of these models is underway, gathering larger datasets from populations of different skin types and collecting images with smartphone cameras to mimic real world settings. We hope that the results of our research will lead to clinical solutions that help accelerate global leprosy elimination. Funding: This study was partially funded by Novartis Foundation and Microsoft (in-kind contribution).

Effectiveness of amlodipine-valsartan single-pill combinations: hierarchical modeling of blood pressure and total cardiovascular disease risk outcomes (the EXCELLENT study).

BACKGROUND: Both patient- and physician-related factors have been shown to explain variability in the outcomes of antihypertensive treatment. Total cardiovascular risk (TCVR) is increasingly used as a determinant of treatment effectiveness but has also been proposed as a treatment outcome. To our knowledge, no studies have reported how antihypertensive treatment impacts blood pressure and TCVR outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To examine in patients treated with a regimen including single-pill combinations (SPCs) of amlodipine/valsartan (1) blood pressure (BP) reduction and control, total cardiovascular risk (TCVR) change, and TCVR reduction of 1 class or more; (2) hierarchical patient- and physician-level determinants of these outcomes; and (3) predictors of uncontrolled BP and improved TCVR classification. METHODS: A prospective (90 days), multicenter, multilevel pharmacoepidemiologic study was conducted in 3546 patients with hypertension treated with SPC amlodipine/valsartan by 698 general practitioners. Statistical analysis included hierarchical linear and logistic modeling of BP and TCVR outcomes. RESULTS: Mean (SD) systolic BP (SBP) reductions were 20.1 (15.5) mm Hg and diastolic BP (DBP) reductions were 9.8 (10.3) mm Hg, with higher reductions among high-risk patients. SBP, DBP, and SBP/DBP control rates were 33.3%, 45.3%, and 25.5%, respectively, with lower rates among high-risk patients. Mean TCVR improvement was a reduction of 0.73 (0.96) classes (-4 [best] to +4 [worst]), with higher reductions for high-risk patients; 58.2% of patients achieved a TCVR reduction of 1 or more classes, with lower percentages for high-risk patients. Twenty-two percent of systolic variability and 26% of diastolic variability in 90-day BP values were attributable to a physician class effect, as was 16% of TCVR change. CONCLUSIONS: Regimens that include SPC amlodipine/valsartan formulations are effective in reducing BP and TCVR in a real-world observational setting. Hierarchical modeling identified patient- and physician-related determinants of BP values and TCVR change, as well as independent predictors of uncontrolled BP and reduced TCVR. TCVR is a scientifically feasible and clinically relevant effectiveness outcome of antihypertensive treatment.