Predictors of mortality in hospitalized patients with influenza: a five-year experience from a tertiary care centre in Pakistan.

Influenza outbreaks are associated with significant morbidity. Our aim was to determine the factors associated with increased mortality in hospitalized patients admitted with diagnosis of influenza, at a tertiary care center in Pakistan. This study included all adult patients with an influenza infection, confirmed by realtime reverse-transcriptase polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) at Aga Khan University Hospital Pakistan. In our study, 112 patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection were admittedat our hospital from the 1st of January 2013 to the 31st of December 2018. Eighty-nine patients (79.46%) were managed in ward or special care units and 23 patients (20.5%) received treatment in intensive care unit (ICU). The overall mortality in our study was 15/112 (13.4%) with the mortality rate of ICU patients being 47.8% while the mortality rate of patients treated in special care units and wards was only 4.5%. The mean age of patients with influenza infection was 58.1 years (±16.6). Influenza virus type A was found in 87 patients (77.6%), while influenza type B was present in only 25 (22.4%) patients. Out of the 15 non-survivors, 14 had influenza A. Only 17 patients (15.2%) were found to have positive culture of respiratory specimen, out of which 3 were non-survivors and 14 were survivors. Our analysis identified septic shock (odds ratio 45.24; 95%, confidence interval 6.20-330; p<0.001), renal failure (odds ratio 10.88; 95%, confidence interval 1.61-73.52; p=0.01) and ICU stay (odds ratio 17.22; 95%, confidence interval 2.68-110.5; p=0.003) as independent risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality.

Comparison of Critical Illness Score in Patients Admitted to Intermediate Care Units of a Tertiary Care Hospital: A Comparative Cross-Sectional Study from Karachi, Pakistan.

Introduction: Intermediate care units (IMCUs) serve as step-up units for emergency department patients and as step-down units for critically ill patients transferred from intensive care units. This study compares four critical illness scores for assessment of acutely ill patients and their accuracy in predicting mortality in patients admitted to IMCU. Methods: A comparative cross-sectional study on patients aged ≥18 admitted to IMCU of Aga Khan University Hospital from 2017 to 2019. All patients admitted to IMCU from the emergency room were included in the study. Patient's record were reviewed for demographic data, physiological and laboratory parameters. Critical illness scores were calculated from these variables for each patient. Results: A total of 1192 patients were admitted to the IMCU, of which 923 (77.4%) medical records were finally analyzed. The mean (SD) age of participants was 62 years (± 16.5) and 469 (50.8%) were women. The overall hospital mortality rate of patients managed in IMCU was 6.4% (59/923 patients). The median scores of APACHE II, SOFA, SAPS II and MEWS were 16 (IQR 11-21), 4 (IQR 2-6), 36 (IQR 30-53) and 3 (IQR 2-4) points respectively. AUC for SAPS II was 0.763 (95% CI: 0.71-0.81), SOFA score was 0.735 (95% CI: 0.68-0.79) and MEWS score was 0.714 (95% CI: 0.66-0.77). The lowest ROC curve was 0.584 (95% CI: 0.52-0.64) for APACHE II. Conclusion: In conclusion, our study found that SAPS II, followed by SOFA and MEWS scores, provided better discrimination in stratifying critical illness in patients admitted to IMCU of a tertiary care hospital in Pakistan.

Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation score and mortality of patients admitted to intermediate care units of a hospital in a low- and middle-income country: A cross-sectional study from Pakistan.

Background: Intermediate care units (IMCUs) serve as a bridge between general wards and intensive care units by providing close monitoring and rapid response to medical emergencies. We aim to identify the common acute medical conditions in patients admitted to IMCU and compare the predicted mortality of these conditions by acute physiology and chronic health evaluation-II (APACHE-II) score with actual mortality. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted at a tertiary care hospital from 2017 to 2019. All adult internal medicine patients admitted to IMCUs were included. Acute conditions were defined as those of short duration (<3 weeks) that require hospitalization. The APACHE-II score was used to determine the severity of these patients' illnesses. Results: Mean (standard deviation [SD]) age was 62 (16.5) years, and 493 (49.2%) patients were male. The top three acute medical conditions were acute and chronic kidney disease in 399 (39.8%), pneumonia in 303 (30.2%), and urinary tract infections (UTIs) in 211 (21.1%). The mean (SD) APACHE-II score of these patients was 12.5 (5.4). The highest mean APACHE-II (SD) score was for acute kidney injury (14.7 ± 4.8), followed by sepsis/septic shock (13.6 ± 5.1) and UTI (13.4 ± 5.1). Sepsis/septic shock was associated with the greatest mortality (odds ratio [OR]: 6.9 [95% CI (confidence interval): 4.5-10.6]), followed by stroke (OR: 3.9 [95% CI: 1.9-8.3]) and pneumonia (OR: 3.0 [95% CI: 2.0-4.5]). Conclusions: Sepsis/septic shock, stroke, and pneumonia are the leading causes of death in our IMCUs. The APACHE-II score predicted mortality for most acute medical conditions but underestimated the risk for sepsis and stroke.