Outcomes of early vs late treatment initiation in solid organ transplantation from hepatitis C virus nucleic acid test-positive donors to hepatitis C virus-uninfected recipients: Results from the HCV-TARGET study.

Curative hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy has increased transplantation from HCV-infected nucleic acid test-positive donors to HCV-uninfected recipients (D+/R-). We evaluated outcomes of early and late HCV treatment among D+/R- nonliver organ transplants. Patients received HCV regimens per local standard (n = 10 sites). Outcomes were compared between early and late treatments. Early treatment regimens (ETR) (n = 56) were initiated pretransplantation to day 7 posttransplant. Late treatment regimens (LTRs) (n = 102) began median 31 (range, 8-114) days posttransplant. There were 79 kidney, 50 lung, 23 heart, and 6 mixed transplants, similar between groups. HCV RNA was quantifiable in 98% of LTR versus 44.6% of ETR recipients (P < .001). Mean (range) days on treatment were 28 (7-93) ETR and 81 (51-111) LTR (P < .0001). There were no virological failures with ETR, but relapse (n = 3) and nonresponse (n = 2) in LTR (P = .16), including fibrosing cholestatic hepatitis postrelapse (n = 1). Sustained virological response was 100% (95% confidence interval, 93.4-100.0) in ETR (n = 54) and 94.9% (95% confidence interval, 88.5-98.3) in LTR (n = 98). Acute rejection occurred in 11 (19.6%) ETR and 25 (24.5%) LTR. In total, 11 HCV-unrelated deaths occurred: 8 ETR and 3 LTR. Organ transplantation from HCV-infected nucleic acid test-positive donors to HCV-uninfected recipients was safe. ETR led to fewer virological failures with shorter treatment duration, supporting recommendations to initiate treatment promptly posttransplant.

DAA therapy and long-term hepatic function in advanced/decompensated cirrhosis: Real-world experience from HCV-TARGET cohort.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy is used in patients with HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis with the expectation of improving hepatic function. However, little is known about the long-term hepatic benefit of successful antiviral treatment. METHODS: Patients with advanced/decompensated cirrhosis (model for end-stage liver disease [MELD] ≥10), in whom NS5A-containing DAA therapy was initiated prior to September 2018, were included (from the HCV-TARGET cohort). Treatment outcomes and the impact of treatment on short-term and long-term hepatic function were examined. RESULTS: A total of 642 patients were analyzed. The mean age was 60 years, 68% were male. The median baseline MELD was 12 (range 10-39) and 64% had prior decompensation. Among patients with available virologic outcomes, 90.5% achieved a sustained virologic response at 12 weeks (SVR12). Eighty (24%) patients achieved a clinically significant decrease in MELD by ≥3 points during short-term follow-up (9-26 weeks after the end of treatment). However, in long-term follow-up (median of 4 years after treatment), mean changes in MELD (-0.30 points), total bilirubin (+0.23 mg/dl) and albumin (+0.36 g/dl) were marginal. Fifty-one patients died and 22 underwent liver transplant. In long-term follow-up, a clinically meaningful decrease in MELD of ≥3 occurred in 29% and a final MELD score of <10 was achieved in 25%. CONCLUSION: In a large real-world experience of patients with advanced/decompensated HCV-related cirrhosis treated with DAAs, there were only marginal improvements in MELD, total bilirubin, or albumin at long-term follow-up (after achieving SVR12). These patients may remain at high risk of decompensation and must continue to be closely monitored. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV: NCT01474811. LAY SUMMARY: Hepatitis C virus infection can now be cured with medications, even in patients who have advanced scarring of the liver (cirrhosis). In this study, we evaluated whether liver function improves or deteriorates in the long-term, following successful treatment of hepatitis C in patients with cirrhosis. We found that overall liver function was relatively stable with only 29% of patients achieving a clinically meaningful improvement in liver function, and we therefore believe that these patients require ongoing monitoring.

Safety and Effectiveness of Ledipasvir and Sofosbuvir, With or Without Ribavirin, in Treatment-Experienced Patients With Genotype 1 Hepatitis C Virus Infection and Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We aimed to evaluate the safety and effectiveness of 12 or 24 weeks treatment with ledipasvir and sofosbuvir, with or without ribavirin, in treatment-experienced patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 1 infection and cirrhosis in routine clinical practice. Patients were followed in a multi-center, prospective, observational cohort study (HCV-TARGET). METHODS: We collected data from 667 treatment-experienced adults with chronic genotype 1 HCV infection who began treatment with ledipasvir and sofosbuvir, with or without ribavirin, from 2011 through September 15, 2016, according to the regional standards of care, at academic (n = 39) and community (n = 18) centers in the United States, Canada, Germany, and Israel. Information was collected from medical records and abstracted into a unique centralized data core. Independent monitors systematically reviewed data entries for completeness and accuracy. Demographic, clinical, adverse event, and virologic data were collected every 12 weeks during treatment and during the follow-up period. The primary efficacy endpoint was sustained virologic response, defined as a level of HCV RNA below the lower limit of quantification or undetectable at a minimum 64 days after the end of treatment (SVR12). The per-protocol population (n = 610) was restricted to patients who completed 12 or 24 weeks of treatment (±2 weeks) and had final virologic outcomes available. RESULTS: The per-protocol analysis revealed that 579 patients (93.8%) achieved an SVR12, including 50/51 patients who received ledipasvir and sofosbuvir for 12 weeks (98%), 384/408 patients who received ledipasvir and sofosbuvir for 24 weeks (94.1%), 68/70 patients who received ledipasvir and sofosbuvir with ribavirin for 12 weeks (97.1%), and 57/60 patients who received ledipasvir and sofosbuvir with ribavirin for 24 weeks (95%). On multivariate analysis, neither treatment duration nor the addition of ribavirin was associated with SVR12. Compensated cirrhosis (odds ratio [OR] compared to decompensated cirrhosis, 2.41; 95% CI, 1.16-5.02), albumin ≥ 3.5 g/dL (OR, 3.15; 95% CI 1.46-6.80), or total bilirubin ≤ 1.2 mg/dL (OR 3.34; 95% CI, 1.59-7.00) were associated with SVR12. CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of safety and effectiveness data from the HCV-TARGET study, we found treatment with ledipasvir and sofosbuvir, with or without ribavirin, to be effective and well tolerated by treatment-experienced patients with genotype 1 HCV infection and compensated cirrhosis. There were no significant differences in rate of SVR12 among patients treated with ledipasvir and sofosbuvir for 12 or 24 weeks, with or without ribavirin. Patients with decompensated cirrhosis appear to benefit from the addition of ribavirin or extension of ledipasvir and sofosbuvir treatment to 24 weeks. ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT10474811.

Safety and efficacy of current direct-acting antiviral regimens in kidney and liver transplant recipients with hepatitis C: Results from the HCV-TARGET study.

Data outside of clinical trials with direct-acting antiviral regimens with or without ribavirin as treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus in solid organ transplant recipients are limited. Liver transplant (LT), kidney transplant (KT), and dual liver kidney (DLK) transplant recipients from the Hepatitis C Therapeutic Registry and Research Network database, a multicenter, longitudinal clinical care treatment cohort, treated with direct-acting antiviral regimens between January 1, 2014, and February 15, 2016, were included to assess safety and efficacy. Included were 443 posttransplant patients (KT = 60, LT = 347, DLK = 36); 42% had cirrhosis, and 54% had failed prior antiviral therapy. Most had genotype (GT) 1 (87% with 52% GT1a, 27% GT1b, and 8% GT1 no subtype) and were treated with sofosbuvir (SOF)/ledipasvir ± ribavirin (85%) followed by SOF + daclatasvir ± ribavirin (9%) and ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir + dasabuvir ± ribavirin (6%). Rates of sustained virologic response (SVR) at 12 weeks were available on 412 patients, and 395 patients (95.9%) achieved SVR at 12 weeks: 96.6%, 94.5%, and 90.9% among LT, KT, and DLK transplant recipients, respectively. Ribavirin did not influence SVR rates and was more often used in those with higher BMI, higher estimated glomerular filtration rate and lower creatinine. Female gender, baseline albumin ≥3.5 g/dL, baseline total bilirubin ≤1.2 mg/dL, absence of cirrhosis, and hepatic decompensation predicted SVR at 12 weeks. Six episodes of acute rejection (n = 2 KT, 4 LT) occurred, during hepatitis C virus treatment in 4 and after cessation of treatment in 2. CONCLUSION: In a large prospective observational cohort study, direct-acting antiviral therapy with SOF/ledipasvir, ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir + dasabuvir, and SOF plus daclatasvir was efficacious and safe in LT, KT, and DLK transplant recipients; ribavirin did not influence SVR, and graft rejection was rare. (Hepatology 2017;66:1090-1101).

Effectiveness and safety of sofosbuvir plus ribavirin for the treatment of HCV genotype 2 infection: results of the real-world, clinical practice HCV-TARGET study.

OBJECTIVE: Due to a high efficacy in clinical trials, sofosbuvir (SOF) and ribavirin (RBV) for 12 or 16 weeks is recommended for treatment of patients with HCV genotype (GT) 2 infection. We investigated safety and effectiveness of these regimens for GT2 in HCV-TARGET participants. DESIGN: HCV-TARGET, an international, prospective observational study evaluates clinical practice data on novel antiviral therapies at 44 academic and 17 community medical centres in North America and Europe. Clinical data were centrally abstracted from medical records. Selection of treatment regimen and duration was the investigator's choice. The primary efficacy outcome was sustained virological response 12 weeks after therapy (SVR12). RESULTS: Between December 2013 and April 2015, 321 patients completed 12 weeks (n=283) or 16 weeks (n=38) of treatment with SOF and RBV. Prior treatment experience and cirrhosis was more frequent among patients in the 16-week regimen compared with 12 weeks (52.6% vs 27.6% and 63.2% vs 21.9%, respectively). Overall, SVR12 was 88.2%. The SVR12 in patients without cirrhosis was 91.0% and 92.9% for 12 or 16 weeks of therapy, respectively. In patients with cirrhosis treated for 12 or 16 weeks, SVR12 was 79.0% and 83%. In the multivariate analysis, liver cirrhosis, lower serum albumin and RBV dose at baseline were significantly associated with SVR12. Common adverse events (AEs) included fatigue, anaemia, nausea, headache, insomnia, rash and flu-like symptoms. Discontinuation due to AEs occurred in 2.8%. CONCLUSIONS: In this clinical practice setting, SOF and RBV was safe and effective for treatment of patients with HCV GT2 infection. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01474811.

Effectiveness of Ledipasvir-Sofosbuvir Combination in Patients With Hepatitis C Virus Infection and Factors Associated With Sustained Virologic Response.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The combination of ledipasvir and sofosbuvir has been approved for treatment of genotype 1 hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, including an 8-week regimen for treatment-naïve patients without cirrhosis and a baseline level of HCV RNA <6 million IU/mL. We analyzed data from a multicenter, prospective, observational study to determine real-world sustained virologic responses 12 weeks after treatment (SVR12) with regimens containing ledipasvir and sofosbuvir and identify factors associated with treatment failure. METHODS: We collected data from 2099 participants in the HCV-TARGET study with complete virologic data (per-protocol population). We analyzed data from 1788 patients receiving ledipasvir-sofosbuvir (282 for 8 weeks, 910 for 12 weeks, 510 for 24 weeks, and 86 for a different duration) and 311 receiving ledipasvir-sofosbuvir plus ribavirin (212 for 12 weeks and 81 for 24 weeks, 18 for other duration) to estimate SVR12 (with 95% confidence interval [CI]), and logistic regression methods to identify factors that predicted an SVR12. RESULTS: The overall study population was 25% black, 66% with HCV genotype 1A infection, 41% with cirrhosis, 50% treatment-experienced, and 30% receiving proton pump inhibitors at start of treatment. In the per-protocol population, SVR12s were achieved by 96% of patients receiving ledipasvir-sofosbuvir for 8 weeks (95% CI, 93%-98%), 97% receiving the drugs for 12 weeks (95% CI, 96%-98%), and 95% receiving the drugs for 24 weeks (95% CI, 93%-97%). Among patients also receiving ribavirin, SVR12 was achieved by 97% of the patients receiving the drugs for 12 weeks (95% CI, 94%-99%) and 95% receiving the drugs for 24 weeks (95% CI, 88%-99%). Of the 586 patients who qualified for 8 weeks of treatment, only 255 (44%) received the drugs for 8 weeks. The rate of SVR12 among those who qualified for and received 8 weeks of therapy was similar in those who qualified for 8 weeks but received 12 weeks therapy (96%; 95% CI, 92%-99% vs 98%; 95% CI, 95%-99%). Factors that predicted SVR12 were higher albumin (≥3.5 g/dL), lower total bilirubin (≤1.2 g/dL), absence of cirrhosis, and absence of proton pump inhibitor use. CONCLUSIONS: Regimens containing ledipasvir and sofosbuvir are highly effective for a broad spectrum of patients with HCV genotype 1 infection treated in different clinical practice settings. Expanded use of 8-week treatment regimens for eligible patients is supported by these real-world results. Modification of proton pump inhibitor use may increase rates of SVR. ClinicalTrials.gov no. NCT01474811.

Effectiveness and Safety of Sofosbuvir-Based Regimens for Chronic HCV Genotype 3 Infection: Results of the HCV-TARGET Study.

BACKGROUND: Sofosbuvir (SOF) is active against all hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes, and SOF-based therapies lead to high rates of sustained virologic response (SVR). However, genotype 3 (GT3) HCV remains a challenge with lower SVR rates reported, particularly in patients with cirrhosis. This study reports the effectiveness and safety of SOF-based therapy in patients with GT3 HCV treated in clinical practice. METHODS: Hepatitis C Virus Therapeutic Registry and Research Network is an international, prospective observational study evaluating patients treated in usual clinical practice. Patients with GT3 HCV were analyzed to assess predictors of treatment response and adverse events using descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Treatment outcomes were available for 197 patients treated with SOF and ribavirin (RBV), with or without peginterferon, including 54% with cirrhosis and 49% who failed prior therapy. Of 178 patients treated with SOF/RBV, 60% achieved SVR at 12 weeks (SVR12), compared with 84% of 19 patients treated with SOF/peginterferon/RBV. For patients treated with SOF/RBV, the SVR12 rate was 58% in treatment-naive patients with cirrhosis, and 42% in those with cirrhosis who failed prior therapy. In noncirrhotic patients, SVR12 rates were 89% in treatment-naive and 88% in treatment-experienced patients. After controlling for age and sex, absence of cirrhosis (odds ratio [OR], 6.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.78-14.74), albumin levels ≥3.2 g/dL (OR, 12.48; 95% CI, 3.86-40.33), and platelet count >10(5) cells/µL (OR, 7.44; 95% CI, 3.51-15.78) were associated with greater odds of SVR12 CONCLUSIONS: SVR rates were acceptable in patients with GT3 HCV without cirrhosis; however, in those with cirrhosis, treatment with SOF/RBV was suboptimal, highlighting the need for new therapies for this population.

A multi-center population-based case-control study of ovarian cancer in African-American women: the African American Cancer Epidemiology Study (AACES).

BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer (OVCA) is the leading cause of death from gynecological cancer, with poorer survival for African American (AA) women compared to whites. However, little is known about risk factors for OVCA in AA. To study the epidemiology of OVCA in this population, we started a collaborative effort in 10 sites in the US. Here we describe the study and highlight the challenges of conducting a study of a lethal disease in a minority population. METHODS: The African American Cancer Epidemiology Study (AACES) is an ongoing, population-based case-control study of OVCA in AA in 10 geographic locations, aiming to recruit 850 women with invasive epithelial OVCA and 850 controls age- and geographically-matched to cases. Rapid case ascertainment and random-digit-dialing systems are in place to ascertain cases and controls, respectively. A telephone survey focuses on risk factors as well as factors of particular relevance for AAs. Food-frequency questionnaires, follow-up surveys, biospecimens and medical records are also obtained. RESULTS: Current accrual of 403 AA OVCA cases and 639 controls exceeds that of any existing study to date. We observed a high proportion (15%) of deceased non-responders among the cases that in part is explained by advanced stage at diagnosis. A logistic regression model did not support that socio-economic status was a factor in advanced stage at diagnosis. Most risk factor associations were in the expected direction and magnitude. High BMI was associated with ovarian cancer risk, with multivariable adjusted ORs and 95% CIs of 1.50 (0.99-2.27) for obese and 1.27 (0.85- 1.91) for morbidly obese women compared to normal/underweight women. CONCLUSIONS: AACES targets a rare tumor in AAs and addresses issues most relevant to this population. The importance of the study is accentuated by the high proportion of OVCA cases ascertained as deceased. Our analyses indicated that obesity, highly prevalent in this population (>60% of the cases), was associated with increased OVCA risk. While these findings need to be replicated, they suggest the potential for an effective intervention on the risk in AAs. Upon completion of enrollment, AACES will be the largest epidemiologic study of OVCA in AA women.

Vitamin D receptor (VDR) polymorphisms and risk of ovarian cancer in Caucasian and African American women.

OBJECTIVE: Polymorphisms in the vitamin D receptor (VDR) gene have been shown in some studies to be associated with the risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) in Caucasian women. There are no published reports among African Americans. METHODS: Case-control data from the North Carolina Ovarian Cancer Study were analyzed using logistic regression to determine the association between seven VDR polymorphisms and EOC in both Caucasians (513 cases, 532 controls) and African Americans (74 cases, 79 controls). In a larger sample of African-Americans (125 cases, 155 controls), we assessed associations between six SNPs in proximity of rs7975232. RESULTS: African American women who carried at least one minor allele of rs7975232 were at higher risk for invasive EOC controlling for age and admixture with an odds ratio (OR) for association under the log-additive model of 2.08 (95% confidence interval (CI)=1.19, 3.63, p=0.010). No association was observed between any of the VDR variants and EOC among Caucasians. A larger sample of African Americans revealed a nearly two-fold increased risk of invasive EOC associated with rs7305032, a SNP in proximity to rs7975232 (R(2)=0.369) with a log-additive OR of 1.87 (95% CI=1.20, 2.93, p=0.006). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first report showing VDR variants associated with ovarian cancer risk in African American women. A larger study of African American women is needed to confirm these findings. These results imply that vitamin D exposure is a possible modifiable risk factor of ovarian cancer among African Americans.

What can we learn from the age- and race/ethnicity- specific rates of inflammatory breast carcinoma?

Inflammatory Breast Carcinoma (IBC), the most aggressive type of breast tumor with unique clinicopathological presentation, is hypothesized to have distinct etiology with a socioeconomic status (SES) component. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program data for 2004-2007, we compare incidence rates of IBC to non-inflammatory locally advanced breast cancer (LABC) among racial/ethnic groups with different SES. The analysis includes women 20-84 years of age. To examine evidence for the distinct etiology of IBC, we analyzed age-distribution patterns of IBC and non-inflammatory LABC, using a mathematical carcinogenesis model. Based on the Collaborative Staging Extension codes, 2,942 incident IBC cases (codes 71 and 73) and 5,721 non-inflammatory LABC cases (codes 40-62) were identified during the four-year study period. Age-adjusted rates of IBC among non-Hispanic White and Hispanic women were similar (2.5/100,000 in both groups). Similar rates were also found in non-inflammatory LABC in these two groups (4.8/100,000 and 4.2/100,000, respectively). In African-American women, the IBC (3.91/100,000) and non-inflammatory LABC (8.47/100,000) rates were greater compared with other ethnic/racial sub-groups. However, the ratio of rates of IBC/non-inflammatory LABC was similar among all the racial/ethnic groups, suggesting that African-American women are susceptible to aggressive breast tumors in general but not specifically to IBC. The mathematical model successfully predicted the observed age-specific rates of both examined breast tumors and revealed distinct patterns. IBC rates increased until age 65 and then slightly decreased, whereas non-inflammatory LABC rates steadily increased throughout the entire age interval. The number of critical transition carcinogenesis stages (m-stages) predicted by the model were 6.3 and 8.5 for IBC and non-inflammatory LABC, respectively, supporting different etiologies of these breast tumors.

Trends in survival and recovery from stroke: evidence from the National Long-Term Care Survey/Medicare data.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Improvements in recovery rates may contribute to an increase in healthy life expectancy. It is unclear, however, whether such changes take place because health researchers traditionally deal with changes in incidence and survival from diseases. The purpose of this study was to test for the presence of time trends in the recovery rate from stroke. METHODS: We compared age patterns of recovery rates from stroke evaluated in 2 subcohorts represented in the National Long-Term Care Survey data linked with the Medicare service use files. RESULTS: We found a statistically significant increase in recovery rate between 1994 and 1999 for females but not for males. CONCLUSIONS: Time trends in recovery rate from stroke exist and can be detected from available data. The roles of influential factors and causes of sex difference in recovery improvement deserve further studies.

Primary peritoneal and ovarian cancers: an epidemiological comparative analysis.

We performed case-control analyses using data from the North Carolina Ovarian Cancer Study to determine risk factors that distinguish primary peritoneal cancer (PPC) from epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). Our risk factor analyses were restricted to invasive serous cancers including 495 EOC cases, 62 PPC cases and 1,086 control women. Logistic regression analyses were used to calculate adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for risk factor associations. Although many case-control associations for the invasive serous PPC cases were similar to those of the invasive serous EOC cases, some differences were observed including a twofold increase in risk of invasive serous PPC in women who were >or=35 years at last pregnancy, whereas a decreased risk was observed for invasive serous EOC risk. We could not confirm a previous report of an association between tubal ligation and PPC, a factor consistently associated with a decreased risk of EOC. The difference in the risk factor associations between invasive serous PPC and EOC cancers suggests divergent molecular development of peritoneal and ovarian cancers. A larger study to determine risk factors for invasive serous PPC is warranted.

Ovarian cancer risk factors in African-American and white women.

Ovarian cancer is the most lethal gynecologic malignancy in both African-American and white women. Although prevalences of many ovarian cancer risk factors differ markedly between African Americans and whites, there has been little research on how the relative contributions of risk factors may vary between racial/ethnic groups. Using data from a North Carolina case-control study (1999-2008), the authors conducted unconditional logistic regression analyses to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for ovarian cancer risk factors in African-American (143 cases, 189 controls) and white (943 cases, 868 controls) women and to test for interactions by race/ethnicity. They also calculated attributable fractions within each racial/ethnic group for the modifiable factors of pregnancy, oral contraceptive use, tubal ligation, and body mass index. Many risk factors showed similar relations across racial/ethnic groups, but tubal ligation and family history of breast or ovarian cancer showed stronger associations among African Americans. Younger age at menarche was associated with risk only in white women. Attributable fractions associated with tubal ligation, oral contraceptive use, and obesity were markedly higher for African Americans. The relative importance of ovarian cancer risk factors may differ for African-American women, but conclusions were limited by the small sample. There is a clear need for further research on etiologic factors for ovarian cancer in African-American women.

Trade-off between cancer and aging: what role do other diseases play? Evidence from experimental and human population studies.

The potential gain in life expectancy which could result from the complete elimination of mortality from cancer in the U.S. would not exceed 3 years if one were to consider cancer independently of other causes of death. In this paper, we review evidence of trade-offs between cancer and aging as well as between cancer and other diseases, which, if taken into account, may substantially increase estimates of gain in life expectancy resulting from cancer eradication. We also used the Multiple Causes of Death (MCD) data to evaluate correlations among mortalities from cancer and other major disorders including heart disease, stroke, diabetes, Alzheimer's, Parkinson's diseases, and asthma. Our analyses revealed significant negative correlations between cancer and other diseases suggesting stronger population effects of cancer eradication. Possible mechanisms of the observed dependencies and emerging perspectives of using dependent competing risks models for evaluating the effects of reduction of mortality from cancer on life expectancy are discussed.

Genetic model for longitudinal studies of aging, health, and longevity and its potential application to incomplete data.

Many longitudinal studies of aging collect genetic information only for a sub-sample of participants of the study. These data also do not include recent findings, new ideas and methodological concepts developed by distinct groups of researchers. The formal statistical analyses of genetic data ignore this additional information and therefore cannot utilize the entire research potential of the data. In this paper, we present a stochastic model for studying such longitudinal data in joint analyses of genetic and non-genetic sub-samples. The model incorporates several major concepts of aging known to date and usually studied independently. These include age-specific physiological norms, allostasis and allostatic load, stochasticity, and decline in stress resistance and adaptive capacity with age. The approach allows for studying all these concepts in their mutual connection, even if respective mechanisms are not directly measured in data (which is typical for longitudinal data available to date). The model takes into account dependence of longitudinal indices and hazard rates on genetic markers and permits evaluation of all these characteristics for carriers of different alleles (genotypes) to address questions concerning genetic influence on aging-related characteristics. The method is based on extracting genetic information from the entire sample of longitudinal data consisting of genetic and non-genetic sub-samples. Thus it results in a substantial increase in the accuracy of statistical estimates of genetic parameters compared to methods that use only information from a genetic sub-sample. Such an increase is achieved without collecting additional genetic data. Simulation studies illustrate the increase in the accuracy in different scenarios for datasets structurally similar to the Framingham Heart Study. Possible applications of the model and its further generalizations are discussed.

Treatment Status of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Does Not Influence Rates of Sustained Virologic Response: An HCV-TARGET Analysis.

Recent studies have suggested a negative impact of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) on sustained virologic response (SVR) to hepatitis C virus (HCV) direct acting antivirals (DAAs). We compared the effectiveness of DAAs in patients with cirrhosis, with and without HCC, and in those with HCC partially treated or untreated (PT/UT-HCC) versus completely treated (CT-HCC). HCC status was based on imaging 6 months before or 2 months after start of DAA therapy. Absence and presence of enhancing lesions after HCC treatment defined CT-HCC and PT/UT-HCC, respectively. Using minimally adjusted logistic regression, the association between the presence of HCC and SVR rates was estimated. Among the 1,457 patients with cirrhosis from HCV-TARGET with complete virologic data (per-protocol population) who did not undergo liver transplantation during treatment and followup, 1,300 were without HCC, 91 with CT-HCC, and 66 with PT/UT-HCC. Most patients were genotype 1 (81%) and treatment-experienced (56%), 41% had history of prior decompensation, and the median pretreatment Model for End-Stage Liver Disease was 9 (range 6-39). The SVR rates were 91% for patients without HCC, 84% for CT-HCC, and 80% for PT/UT-HCC. The presence of HCC (versus not having HCC) was associated with significantly lower odds of achieving SVR (odds ratio [OR] = 0.51, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.33-0.81; P = 0.003). However, among those with HCC, HCC treatment status (PT/UT-HCC versus CT-HCC) did not show association with SVR (OR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.35-1.79, P = 0.569). Conclusions: The presence of HCC reduces the likelihood of SVR by 50%, but with no evident difference in those with completely treated HCC versus partially treated/untreated HCC.

What age trajectories of cumulative deficits and medical costs tell us about individual aging and mortality risk: Findings from the NLTCS-Medicare data.

An important feature of aging-related deterioration in human health is the decline in organisms' resistance to stresses, which contributes to an increase in morbidity and mortality risks. In human longitudinal studies of aging, such a decline is not measured directly, so indirect methods of statistical modeling have to be used for evaluating this characteristic. Since medical interventions reflect severity of occurring health disorders, data from Medicare service use files can be used for such modeling. In this paper, we use the National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS) data merged with the Medicare service use files to investigate dynamics of stress resistance in the U.S. elderly. We constructed individual indices of cumulative deficits and medical costs and investigated their separate and joint effects on dynamics of mortality risks using the quadratic hazard model (QHM). We found that males show a faster decline in stress resistance with age than females.

Cumulative deficits and physiological indices as predictors of mortality and long life.

We evaluated the predictive potential for long-term (24-year) survival and longevity (85+ years) of an index of cumulative deficits (DI) and six physiological indices (pulse pressure, diastolic blood pressure, pulse rate, serum cholesterol, blood glucose, and hematocrit) measured in mid- to late life (44-88 years) for participants of the 9th and 14th Framingham Heart Study examinations. For all ages combined, the DI, pulse pressure, and blood glucose are the strongest determinants of both long-term survival and longevity, contributing cumulatively to their explanation. Diastolic blood pressure and hematocrit are less significant determinants of both of these outcomes. The pulse rate is more relevant to survival, whereas serum cholesterol is more relevant to longevity. Only the DI is a significant predictor of longevity and mortality for each 5-year age group ranging from 45 to 85 years. The DI appears to be a more important determinant of long-term risks of death and longevity than are the physiological indices.

Cumulative index of elderly disorders and its dynamic contribution to mortality and longevity.

The composite index constructed from longitudinal survey data as the level of deficits accumulated by an individual (frailty index) captures important systemic aspects of deterioration in a human organism, and is an attractive candidate for studying determinants of aging and longevity. The objective of this paper was to investigate the ability of this index to characterize human aging, mortality, and longevity. We use 32 variables from the National Long Term Care Survey data characterizing health and daily activities deficits to construct the cumulative frailty index. We use the Cox's proportional hazard model to describe its contribution to mortality. The risk of death considered as the function of the frailty index has asymmetric U-shaped form. The asymmetric U-function of the absolute risk is getting steeper (narrower) with age. The asymmetric U-function describing the relative risk exhibits the opposite tendency with age. The narrowing of the absolute risk functions with age reflects the age-related decline in stress resistance. The widening of the relative risk function with age indicates an increase in the relative contribution of other, unobserved, risk factors (including senescence) to the risk of death. This suggests increasing the role of senescence per se in the increasing risk of death with age compared to the role of specific pathology.