ABSTRACT
Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among alternative model structures and assumptions. To assess the potential for uncertainties about emerging pathogens to affect forecasts of their spread, we evaluated the performance 16 forecasting models in the context of the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia. Each model featured a different combination of assumptions about human mobility, spatiotemporal variation in transmission potential, and the number of virus introductions. We found that which model assumptions had the most ensemble weight changed through time. We additionally identified a trade-off whereby some individual models outperformed ensemble models early in the epidemic, but on average the ensembles outperformed all individual models. Our results suggest that multiple models spanning uncertainty across alternative assumptions are necessary to obtain robust forecasts for emerging infectious diseases.
Subject(s)
Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology , Epidemics/statistics & numerical data , Epidemiological Monitoring , Zika Virus Infection/epidemiology , Colombia/epidemiology , Data Interpretation, Statistical , Datasets as Topic , Forecasting/methods , Humans , Models, Statistical , Spatio-Temporal Analysis , UncertaintyABSTRACT
The International Harmonization Project defined complete response (CR) after treatment for Hodgkin disease (HD) by absence of fluorodeoxyglucose avidity, regardless of the size of residual masses. Residual avidity after initial treatment is known to predict inferior survival. In the setting of retrieval therapy, early positron emission tomography (PET) scans may improve assessment of treatment efficacy. Retrospective analysis after 2 cycles of gemcitabine and vinorelbine for refractory HD revealed 6 CR among 13 patients by PET and 1 CR in 13 by computed tomography (CT). No relationship between PET response and event-free or overall survival could be discerned, presumably because of the heterogeneity of subsequent therapies.