The Emergency Medicine Workforce: Shortage Resolving, Future Surplus Expected.

INTRODUCTION: The emergency medicine (EM) workforce has been growing at a rapid rate, fueled by a large increase in the number of EM residency programs and growth in the number of Advanced Practice Providers (APPs). OBJECTIVES: To review current available data on patient volumes and characteristics, the overall physician workforce, the current emergency physician (EP) workforce, and to project emergency physician staffing needs into the future. METHODS: Data was obtained through review of the current medical literature, reports from certifying organizations and professional societies, Web searches for alternative sources, and published governmental data. RESULTS: We conservatively estimate the demand for emergency clinicians to grow by ∼1.8% per year. The actual demand for EPs will likely be lower, considering the higher growth rates seen by APPs, likely offsetting the need for increasing numbers of EPs. We estimate the overall supply of board-certified or board-eligible EPs to increase by at least 4% in the near-term, which includes losses due to attrition. In light of this, we conservatively estimate the supply of board-certified or eligible EPs should exceed demand by at least 2.2% per year. In the intermediate term, it is possible that the supply of board-certified or eligible EPs could exceed demand by 3% or more per year. Using 2.2% growth, we estimate that the number of board-certified or board-eligible EPs should meet the anticipated demand for EPs as early as the start of 2021. Furthermore, extrapolating current trends, we anticipate the EP workforce could be 20-30% oversupplied by 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Historically, there has been a significant shortage of EPs. We project that this shortage may resolve quickly, and there is the potential for a significant oversupply in the future.

The Emergency Medicine Workforce: Profile and Projections.

BACKGROUND: The landscape of the emergency medicine workforce has changed dramatically over the last few decades. The growth in emergency medicine residency programs has significantly increased the number of emergency medicine specialists now staffing emergency departments (EDs) throughout the country. Despite this increase in available providers, rising patient volumes, an aging population, ED overcrowding and inefficiency, increased regulation, and other factors have resulted in the continued need for additional emergency physicians. OBJECTIVES: To review current available data on patient volumes and characteristics, the overall physician workforce, the current emergency physician workforce, the impact of physician extenders and scribes on the practice of emergency medicine, and project emergency physician staffing needs into the future. DISCUSSION AND PROJECTIONS: We project that within the next 5 to 10 years, there will be enough board-certified or -eligible emergency physicians to provide care to all patients in the U.S. EDs. However, low-volume rural EDs will continue to have difficulty attracting emergency medicine specialists without significant incentives. CONCLUSIONS: There remains a shortage of board-certified emergency physicians, but it is decreasing every year. The use of physicians from other specialties to staff EDs has long been based on the theory that there is a long-standing shortage of available American Board of Emergency Medicine/American Osteopathic Board of Emergency Medicine physicians, both now and in the future. Our investigation shows that this is not supported by current data. Although there will always be regional and rural physician shortages, these are mirrored by all other specialties and are even more pressing in primary care.