Comparing clinical trial population representativeness to real-world users of 17 biologics approved for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: An external validity analysis of 66,639 biologic users from the Italian VALORE project.

To date, no population-based studies have specifically explored the external validity of pivotal randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of biologics simultaneously for a broad spectrum of immuno-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs). The aims of this study were, firstly, to compare the patients' characteristics and median treatment duration of biologics approved for IMIDs between RCTs' and real-world setting (RW); secondly, to assess the extent of biologic users treated for IMIDs in the real-world setting that would not have been eligible for inclusion into pivotal RCT for each indication of use. Using the Italian VALORE distributed database (66,639 incident biologic users), adult patients with IMIDs treated with biologics in the Italian real-world setting were substantially older (mean age ± SD: 50 ± 15 years) compared to those enrolled in pivotal RCTs (45 ± 15 years). In the real-world setting, certolizumab pegol was more commonly used by adult women with psoriasis/ankylosing spondylitis (F/M ratio: 1.8-1.9) compared to RCTs (F/M ratio: 0.5-0.6). The median treatment duration (weeks) of incident biologic users in RW was significantly higher than the duration of pivotal RCTs in almost all indications for use and most biologics (4-100 vs. 6-167). Furthermore, almost half (46.4%) of biologic users from RW settings would have been ineligible for inclusion in the respective indication-specific pivotal RCTs. The main reasons were: advanced age, recent history of cancer and presence of other concomitant IMIDs. These findings suggest that post-marketing surveillance of biologics should be prioritized for those patients.

Combined blockade of mTOR and p21-activated kinases pathways prevents tumour growth in KRAS-mutated colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The identification of novel therapeutic strategies for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients harbouring KRAS mutations represents an unmet clinical need. In this study, we aimed to clarify the role of p21-activated kinases (Paks) as therapeutic target for KRAS-mutated CRC. METHODS: Paks expression and activation levels were evaluated in a cohort of KRAS-WT or -mutated CRC patients by immunohistochemistry. The effects of Paks inhibition on tumour cell proliferation and signal transduction were assayed by RNAi and by the use of three pan-Paks inhibitors (PF-3758309, FRAX1036, GNE-2861), evaluating CRC cells, spheroids and tumour xenografts' growth. RESULTS: Paks activation positively correlated with KRAS mutational status in both patients and cell lines. Moreover, genetic modulation or pharmacological inhibition of Paks led to a robust impairment of KRAS-mut CRC cell proliferation. However, Paks prolonged blockade induced a rapid tumour adaptation through the hyper-activation of the mTOR/p70S6K pathway. The addition of everolimus (mTOR inhibitor) prevented the growth of KRAS-mut CRC tumours in vitro and in vivo, reverting the adaptive tumour resistance to Paks targeting. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, our results suggest the simultaneous blockade of mTOR and Pak pathways as a promising alternative therapeutic strategy for patients affected by KRAS-mut colorectal cancer.

[Long-term exposure to air pollution and incidence of coronary heart diseases and stroke in the longitudinal metropolitan studies (LMS) network: the BIGEPI project]. / Esposizione di lungo periodo all'inquinamento atmosferico e incidenza di malattia coronarica acuta e ictus nella rete degli studi longitudinali metropolitani: il progetto BIGEPI.

OBJECTIVES: to assess the potential of using longitudinal metropolitan studies (LMS) to study the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and the incidence of acute coronary events and stroke. DESIGN: closed cohort. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: subjects aged >=30 years, who took part in the 2011 census, residents in 5 cities (Turin, Bologna, Rome, Brindisi and Taranto). Annual concentrations of particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and warm-season ozone (O3) (annual O3 in Taranto and Brindisi), estimated through satellite (Turin, Bologna, Rome) or photochemical models (Taranto and Brindisi) with a spatial resolution of 1 km2, were assigned to the census address. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke until 31.12.2018 (2019 in Bologna). Cohort-specific Hazard Ratios (HRs), estimated using Cox regression models progressively adjusting for individual and contextual covariates, were pooled with random-effect meta-analysis. RESULTS: there were 71,872 incident CHD cases and 43,884 incident cases of stroke in almost 18 million person-years. No association was observed between the exposures studied and incidence of CHD and stroke, except for an increase in the incidence of CHD associated with warm-season O3 exposure (HR 1.034 per 5 µg/m3 increase). Some positive associations were found in specific cities (both outcomes in Brindisi with PM10 exposure and in Taranto with NO2 exposure, stroke in Rome with both PM10 and PM2.5), although estimates were not significant in some instances. CONCLUSIONS: LMS are a high potential tool for the study of comparative medium- and long-term effects of air pollution. Their further development (different definitions of exposure, outcomes, characteristics of the urban areas and extension to other LMS) may make them even more valuable tools for monitoring and planning public health interventions.

Burden of Parkinson's disease in Sicily: a health administrative database study.

INTRODUCTION: Prevalence of Parkinson's disease (PD) increases with the advanced ages, representing a relevant health burden. Accurate prevalence estimates are of fundamental need in order to adjust the supply of health services for these patients. The availability of administrative health data from the National Health System provides a useful resource to assess the burden of diseases. Our aim was to evaluate the prevalence of PD through the use of administrative data in the Sicily region. METHODS: We have identified all the subjects affected by PD in Sicily in 2017 by gathering data from three regional health administrative databases: the hospital discharge records, the medical exemption databases, and the pharmacological prescription database. Prevalence rates and 95% confidence intervals (CI) have been calculated across 5-year age classes. RESULTS: PD patients identified through database searching were 24,674, giving a prevalence of 488/100,000 (95%CI 481.9-494.1) inhabitants. Prevalence was higher among men (514.5/100,000; 95%CI 505.6-523.6) and reached a peak in the 85-89 age class (3203.8/100,000; 95%CI 3095.2-3315.1). DISCUSSION: Our prevalence estimates of PD were higher when compared to previous epidemiological surveys conducted in Sicily. These findings are, however, comparable to other studies conducted in Italy that identified cases through administrative databases. Using health databases is a feasible strategy to assess the burden of PD.

[Application of an algorithm for the validation of congenital anomaly cases using hospital discharge records]. / Applicazione di un algoritmo per la validazione dei casi di malformazione congenita provenienti dal flusso delle schede di dimissione ospedaliera.

OBJECTIVES: to evaluate and validate the adoption of an algorithm for the identification of cases of congenital anomalies (CAs) to improve the performance of the Congenital Malformations Registry of Sicily Region (Southern Italy). DESIGN: an algorithm was used to identify congenital anomalies on a sample of hospital discharge records (SDO) with ICD-9-CM code between 740-759 on any of the diagnoses within the first year of life, together with a sample of healthy births equal to 5% of total births for the same period. The identified cases were evaluated through the clinical record analysis. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: the analysed sample was composed of 4,271 cases identified between June 2013 and December 2014 along with 3,993 SDO without any code of MC (5% of the total volume of births in the same period). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: positive predictive value (VPP) and negative predictive value (VPN) were computed by means of the comparison between the algorithm outcomes and the clinical record verification. RESULTS: 4,271 potentially malformed records involving 3,381 subjects born in the Sicilian territory have been identified. Among the hospital discharge records that it was possible to verify, the application of the algorithm led to the exclusion of 924 cases: of these, 62 proved to be false negatives (VPN: 93.3). The valid cases were 1,179, while the cases to be evaluated 617: the comparison between algorithm and clinical record analysis led to a VPP of 91.7 and 72.1, respectively, for valid and to be evaluated. CONCLUSIONS: the tested algorithm proved to be a useful tool for identifying SDO potentially related to congenital anomalies. In the overall sample, the algorithm provided an outcome consistent with the clinical record assessment in 87.4% (2,379) of cases.

[SARS-CoV-2 epidemic among Italians e resident immigrant population: differential incidence from an interregional multicentre study]. / L'epidemia di SARS-CoV-2 nella popolazione italiana e straniera: differenze di incidenza che emergono da uno studio multicentrico interregionale.

OBJECTIVES: to describe differences in the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections between Italians and foreigners residing in seven Italian Regions during the different phases of the pandemic and by gender. DESIGN: retrospective observational study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: all confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections from 02.02. 2020 to 16.07.2021 in the seven Regions under study were included. Italian resident population calculated by the National Institute of Statistics as of 01.01.2020 was used to calculate the rates. The considered period is divided into 5 sub-periods (phases). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: number of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections in the five phases of the pandemic and crude rates by citizenship (Italian vs foreign). Distribution of infections by age group and by week. Crude and age-adjusted incidence rates ratios (IRR) were calculated, by Region, gender, and phase of the pandemic. RESULTS: an epidemic curve delay was observed in foreigners in the first phase of the epidemic, in particular in the northern Regions, the most affected in that phase. The first phase of the epidemic was characterized by a greater proportion of cases occurred in people aged over 60 years than the other phases, both in Italians and in foreigners. The incidence among foreigners is higher during the summer of 2020 (intermediate period: June-September 2020) and during the last period (May-July 2021) in all Regions. The overall figure shows a lower incidence among foreigners than Italians, except for males in Tuscany. CONCLUSIONS: the lower incidence rates among foreigners should be interpreted with caution as the available data suggest that it is at least partly attributable to less access to diagnostic tests. Regional differences found in the study deserve further research together with the effect of gender and country of origin.

[Mortality and impact of COVID-19 by citizenship in seven Italian Regions from the beginning of the pandemic to mid-July 2021]. / Mortalità per COVID-19 nella popolazione immigrata in sette Regioni italiane da inizio pandemia a metà luglio 2021.

OBJECTIVES: to quantify the variability of COVID-19 mortality from the beginning of the pandemic to mid-July 2021, in relation to the immigrant status and by Region and period. DESIGN: observational incidence study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: the study population consists of the residents at the beginning of 2020 in seven Regions (Piedmont, Lombardy, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany, Lazio, Sicily) aged <=74 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: absolute frequency of deaths occurred in subjects who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, crude and standardized rates (standard: Italian population at the beginning of 2020), and mortality rates ratios (obtained using Poisson models), by immigrant status and stratified by gender, Region of residence, and period. The study period was divided into 5 subperiods: 22.02.2020-25.05.2020, 26.05.2020-02.10.2020, 03.10.2020-26.02.2021, 27.02.2021-16.07.2021. RESULTS: the study includes more than one half of the Italian population and most of the immigrants residing in the country, who are younger than Italians and experienced fewer COVID-19 deaths. Deaths among those who tested positive varied greatly between Regions and periods; standardized rates showed considerable increases over time among immigrants. In terms of rate ratios, there were excesses among immigrant males in the third period (MRR: 1.46; 95%CI 1.30-1.65) and in the fourth period (MRR: 1.55; 95%CI 1, 34-1.81). Among immigrant females, there is an indication of lower risk in the third period (MRR: 0.79; 95%CI 0.65-0.97) and of greater risk in the fourth period (MRR: 1. 46; 95%CI 1.21-1.77). Finally, the effect is modified by the Region of residence, both in the third and in the fourth period for males and only in the fourth period for females. CONCLUSIONS: the risk of premature mortality due to COVID-19 is linked to immigrant status and with an intensity that varies by gender, Region, and period. More accessible tools for prevention, diagnosis and early healthcare can support immigrant communities in managing the risk factors linked to the spread of infections and, in particular, counteract their evolution into more severe disease outcomes.

[Can diabetes and its related hypoglycemic drug treatment be considered risk factors for health outcomes in COVID-19 patients? The results of a study in the population residing in Sicily Region (Southern Italy)]. / Diabete e trattamento farmacologico con ipoglicemizzanti possono essere considerati fattori di rischio per gli esiti di salute in soggetti COVID-19? I risultati di uno studio nella popolazione residente in Sicilia.

OBJECTIVES: to evaluate the effects of a pre-existing condition of diabetes and of the use of antidiabetic drugs in the Sicilian population on different outcomes of the COVID-19 disease. DESIGN: a retrospective observational study based was used. Data deriving from the COVID-19 epidemic surveillance and from the collection of information on drugs consume by Sicilian residents. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: due to the data availability, the study was calibrated on the Region and included all population distinguishing by gender and age groups. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: the risks of cumulative incidence for COVID-19 were investigated in people who had diabetes comorbidities to incur a hospitalization for COVID-19, to be treated within an intensive care unit, and lethality. The role of previous antidiabetic drug treatments with respect to each study outcome was also investigated. RESULTS: in Sicily, from 01.03.2020 to 26.06.2020, a number of 172 cases of COVID-19 disease with diabetes comorbidity were diagnosed. The data did not show any difference in the cumulative incidence for COVID-19 between diabetics (64.2/100,000 inhabitants) and non-diabetics (56.9/100,000 inhabitants) patients. Diabetes increases the risk of hospitalization in the under 80 in both men and women (men: OR 2.62; women OR 4.31), for treatment in intensive care (men: OR 4,41; women: OR 7.74), and for death (men: OR 5.21; women OR 5.92). The analysis of drug using showed risks effect of insulin (OR 2.13) on hospitalization, sulfonylureas/glinides (OR 2.58) on intensive care and protective of metformin on death both in single component (OR 0.44) and in multicomponent (OR 0.43). CONCLUSIONS: data availability made it possible to monitor the occurrence and explore some of the characteristics of the cases with COVID-19 in Sicily. Diabetes does not seem to represent a risk factor for SARS-CoV-2 infection in Sicily, while previous diabetes condition seems to determine greater risk of hospitalization, treatment in intensive care, and lethality among over 80. There are also gender differences with almost double risks in women for hospitalization and intensive care only. Among the antidiabetic drugs investigated, there was a risk for hospitalization and intensive care while protective for deaths. This study represents an important tool for the activation of intervention programmes in the area aimed at populations with greater health risk deriving from the effects of this new pandemic.

North-south differences in incidence and surveillance of cutaneous malignant melanoma in Italy.

BACKGROUND: In Italy, the incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma is two-fold higher in the north than in the south. This gradient might be associated with differences in incidence trends and disease surveillance. We compared the time trends in incidence rates, mortality rates, dermatologic office visit rates and skin biopsy rates between the Emilia-Romagna Region (northern Italy) and the Sicily Region (southern Italy). METHODS: The cancer registries of Parma, Modena, Ferrara and Romagna (current population, 2,606,465) and Catania-Messina-Enna, Siracusa and Ragusa (2,775,019) provided incidence and mortality records for the years 2008-2017. The records of outpatient services delivered in public health facilities were obtained from the two Regional Administrations. Trends in rates were assessed with the estimated average annual percent change. North-south differences were expressed as age-standardised rate ratios. RESULTS: In the context of a generalised increasing incidence trend, which was more moderate in the female population of the Sicily Region, the standardised rate ratios were: 5.31 (males) and 5.20 (females) for in situ cutaneous malignant melanoma; 2.10 and 2.07 for invasive cutaneous malignant melanoma, with an excess incidence concentrated in lesions ⩽1.00 mm thick (3.58 and 3.05); 3.00 and 2.44 for dermatologic office visits; and 5.25 and 5.02 for skin biopsies. Mortality was stable in both Regions. CONCLUSIONS: In the Emilia-Romagna Region, as compared with the Sicily Region, a higher incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma -especially of in situ and early invasive cutaneous malignant melanoma- coexisted with a higher level of clinical surveillance. The question of the direction of the cause-effect relationship between increased incidence and increased diagnostic scrutiny remains open.

Development of a Set of Indicators for Measuring and Improving Quality of Rehabilitation Care after Ischemic Stroke.

Stroke is the leading global cause of permanent disability and the second leading cause of dementia within the first year of the event. Systematic quality improvement interventions such as Audit & Feedback (A&F) can monitor and improve the performance of post-stroke care in conjunction with the use of quality indicators (QIs). The scientific literature shows limited studies on quality improvement and QIs design for poststroke rehabilitation. In Italy, the National Outcomes Evaluation Programme (PNE) annually provides several QIs concerning the acute wards. On the contrary, indicators for quality assessment of post-acute stroke rehabilitation are not available nationwide. In recent years, the Italian Ministry of Health has funded a national network project, the aim of which is to provide and evaluate the effectiveness of A&F strategies in healthcare improvement. Part of this project is the development of a set of IQs for ischemic stroke rehabilitation used to conduct an A&F. In this study, we describe the design and development process of these QIs from administrative databases and report the results of the pilot test conducted on a small sample of Sicilian rehabilitation facilities, comparing them from 2019 to 2021. Feedback from the participating centers was mainly positive, and the quality indicators were found to be comprehensible and appreciated. However, the study highlighted the need for better adherence to indicators measuring processes of rehabilitation care. The set of quality indicators presented in this study, relevant to inpatient settings, could be considered a starting point on which to base quality improvement initiatives both nationally and internationally.

Pak1 pathway hyper-activation mediates resistance to endocrine therapy and CDK4/6 inhibitors in ER+ breast cancer.

Cyclin-dependent kinase 4 and 6 inhibitors (CDK4/6i) have been approved in combination with endocrine therapy (ET) to treat estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) metastatic breast cancer (BC). However, drug resistance represents the leading cause of breast cancer patients mortality. This study aimed to identify novel resistance mechanisms to ER antagonists in combination with CDK4/6 inhibitors. We generated two ER+ BC cell lines, T47D and MCF7, resistant to the combination of the ER antagonist fulvestrant and CDK4/6i abemaciclib, named T47D-FAR and MCF7-FAR. Transcriptomic analysis revealed common up-regulation of genes involved in MAPK and epithelial to mesenchymal transition (EMT) pathways in FAR cells, sustaining their hyper-invasive phenotype and increased anchorage-independent growth, compared to sensitive cells. FAR cells showed higher p21-activated kinase 1 (Pak1) expression and phosphorylation levels than parental cells. PAK1 knockdown by siRNAs hampered cell proliferation, reduced anchorage-independent growth and invasive properties of T47D-FAR and MCF7-FAR, re-sensitizing them to fulvestrant and abemaciclib. Conversely, over-expression of PAK1 in MCF7 and T47D cells increased tumor spheroids' growth and invasion and reduced sensitivity to fulvestrant and abemaciclib, confirming its role in inducing drug resistance. Finally, treatment with Pak1 inhibitors, PF-3758309 (PF309) and NVS-PAK1-1, restored cell sensitivity to fulvestrant and abemaciclib of MCF7-FAR and T47D-FAR cells, both in vitro and in vivo. In conclusion, our data suggested a pivotal role for Pak1 in resistance to ET and CDK4/6i in ER+ breast cancers. These data might promote the rationale for the development of novel Pak1 inhibitors for treatment of patients with ER+ BC progressing on ET plus CDK4/6i.

Development and Validation of a Novel Pre-Pregnancy Score Predictive of Preterm Birth in Nulliparous Women Using Data from Italian Healthcare Utilization Databases.

Background: Preterm birth is a major worldwide public health concern, being the leading cause of infant mortality. Understanding of risk factors remains limited, and early identification of women at high risk of preterm birth is an open challenge. Objective: The aim of the study was to develop and validate a novel pre-pregnancy score for preterm delivery in nulliparous women using information from Italian healthcare utilization databases. Study Design: Twenty-six variables independently able to predict preterm delivery were selected, using a LASSO logistic regression, from a large number of features collected in the 4 years prior to conception, related to clinical history and socio-demographic characteristics of 126,839 nulliparous women from Lombardy region who gave birth between 2012 and 2017. A weight proportional to the coefficient estimated by the model was assigned to each of the selected variables, which contributed to the Preterm Birth Score. Discrimination and calibration of the Preterm Birth Score were assessed using an internal validation set (i.e., other 54,359 deliveries from Lombardy) and two external validation sets (i.e., 14,703 and 62,131 deliveries from Marche and Sicily, respectively). Results: The occurrence of preterm delivery increased with increasing the Preterm Birth Score value in all regions in the study. Almost ideal calibration plots were obtained for the internal validation set and Marche, while expected and observed probabilities differed slightly in Sicily for high Preterm Birth Score values. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 60%, 61% and 56% for the internal validation set, Marche and Sicily, respectively. Conclusions: Despite the limited discriminatory power, the Preterm Birth Score is able to stratify women according to their risk of preterm birth, allowing the early identification of mothers who are more likely to have a preterm delivery.

Indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and its containment measures on social inequalities in hospital utilisation in Italy.

BACKGROUND: The pandemic may undermine the equity of access to and utilisation of health services for conditions other than COVID-19. The objective of the study is to evaluate the indirect impact of COVID-19 and lockdown measures on sociodemographic inequalities in healthcare utilisation in seven Italian areas. METHODS: In this multicentre retrospective study, we evaluated whether COVID-19 modified the association between educational level or deprivation and indicators of hospital utilisation and quality of care. We also assessed variations in gradients by sex and age class. We estimated age-standardised rates and prevalence and their relative per cent changes comparing pandemic (2020) and pre-pandemic (2018-2019) periods, and the Relative Index of Inequalities (RIIs) fitting multivariable Poisson models with an interaction between socioeconomic position and period. RESULTS: Compared with 2018-2019, hospital utilisation and, to a lesser extent, timeliness of procedures indicators fell during the first months of 2020. Larger declines were registered among women, the elderly and the low educated resulting in a shrinkage (or widening if RII <1) of the educational gradients for most of the indicators. Timeliness of procedures indicators did not show any educational gradient neither before nor during the pandemic. Inequalities by deprivation were nuanced and did not substantially change in 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The socially patterned reduction of hospital utilisation may lead to a potential exacerbation of health inequalities among groups who were already vulnerable before the pandemic. The healthcare service can contribute to contrast health disparities worsened by COVID-19 through more efficient communication and locally appropriate interventions.

Indirect impact of Covid-19 on hospital care pathways in Italy.

Earlier in 2020, seven Italian regions, which cover 62% of the Italian population, set up the Mimico-19 network to monitor the side effects of the restrictive measures against Covid-19 on volumes and quality of care. To this aim, we retrospectively analysed hospital discharges data, computing twelve indicators of volume and performance in three clinical areas: cardiology, oncology, and orthopaedics. Weekly indicators for the period January-July 2020 were compared with the corresponding average for 2018-2019; comparisons were performed within 3 sub-periods: pre-lockdown, lockdown, and post-lockdown. The weekly trend of hospitalisations for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) showed a 40% reduction, but the proportion of STEMI patients with a primary PTCA did not significantly change from previous years. Malignant neoplasms surgery volumes differed substantially by site, with a limited reduction for lung cancer (< 20%) and greater declines (30-40%) for breast and prostate cancers. The percentage of timely surgery for femoral neck in the elderly remained constantly higher than the previous 2 years whereas hip and knee replacements fell dramatically. Hospitalisations have generally decreased, but the capacity of a timely and effective response in time-dependent pathways of care was not jeopardized throughout the period. General trends did not show important differences across regions, regardless of the different burden of Covid-19. Preventive and primary care services should adopt a pro-active approach, moving towards the identification of at-risk conditions that were neglected during the pandemic and timely addressing patients to the secondary care system.

Stratification of the risk of developing severe or lethal Covid-19 using a new score from a large Italian population: a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a population-based risk stratification model (COVID-19 Vulnerability Score) for predicting severe/fatal clinical manifestations of SARS-CoV-2 infection, using the multiple source information provided by the healthcare utilisation databases of the Italian National Health Service. DESIGN: Retrospective observational cohort study. SETTING: Population-based study using the healthcare utilisation database from five Italian regions. PARTICIPANTS: Beneficiaries of the National Health Service, aged 18-79 years, who had the residentship in the five participating regions. Residents in a nursing home were not included. The model was built from the 7 655 502 residents of Lombardy region. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The score included gender, age and 29 conditions/diseases selected from a list of 61 conditions which independently predicted the primary outcome, that is, severe (intensive care unit admission) or fatal manifestation of COVID-19 experienced during the first epidemic wave (until June 2020). The score performance was validated by applying the model to several validation sets, that is, Lombardy population (second epidemic wave), and the other four Italian regions (entire 2020) for a total of about 15.4 million individuals and 7031 outcomes. Predictive performance was assessed by discrimination (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and calibration (plot of observed vs predicted outcomes). RESULTS: We observed a clear positive trend towards increasing outcome incidence as the score increased. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the COVID-19 Vulnerability Score ranged from 0.85 to 0.88, which compared favourably with the areas of generic scores such as the Charlson Comorbidity Score (0.60). A remarkable performance of the score on the calibration of observed and predicted outcome probability was also observed. CONCLUSIONS: A score based on data used for public health management accurately predicted the occurrence of severe/fatal manifestations of COVID-19. Use of this score may help health decision-makers to more accurately identify high-risk citizens who need early preventive or treatment interventions.

Large-Scale Postmarketing Surveillance of Biological Drugs for Immune-Mediated Inflammatory Diseases Through an Italian Distributed Multi-Database Healthcare Network: The VALORE Project.

BACKGROUND: Biological drugs have improved the management of immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) despite being associated with important safety issues such as immunogenicity, infections, and malignancies in real-world settings. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to explore the potential of a large Italian multi-database distributed network for use in the postmarketing surveillance of biological drugs, including biosimilars, in patients with IMID. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using 13 Italian regional claims databases during 2010-2019. A tailor-made R-based tool developed for distributed analysis of claims data using a study-specific common data model was customized for this study. We measured the yearly prevalence of biological drug users and the frequency of switches between originator and biosimilars for infliximab, etanercept, and adalimumab separately and stratified them by calendar year and region. We then calculated the cumulative number of users and person-years (PYs) of exposure to individual biological drugs approved for IMIDs. For a number of safety outcomes (e.g., severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 [SARS-COV-2] infection), we conducted a sample power calculation to estimate the PYs of exposure required to investigate their association with individual biological drugs approved for IMIDs, considering different strengths of association. RESULTS: From a total underlying population of almost 50 million inhabitants from 13 Italian regions, we identified 143,602 (0.3%) biological drug users, with a cumulative exposure of 507,745 PYs during the entire follow-up. The mean age ± standard deviation of biological drug users was 49.3 ± 16.3, with a female-to-male ratio of 1.2. The age-adjusted yearly prevalence of biological drug users increased threefold from 0.7 per 1000 in 2010 to 2.1 per 1000 in 2019. Overall, we identified 40,996 users of biosimilars of tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α inhibitors (i.e., etanercept, adalimumab, and infliximab) in the years 2015-2019. Of these, 46% (N = 18,845) switched at any time between originator and biosimilars or vice versa. To investigate a moderate association (incidence rate ratio 2) between biological drugs approved for IMIDs and safety events of interest, such as optic neuritis (lowest background incidence rate 10.4/100,000 PYs) or severe infection (highest background incidence rate 4312/100,000 PYs), a total of 43,311 PYs and 104 PYs of exposure to individual biological drugs, respectively, would be required. As such, using this network, of 15 individual biological drugs approved for IMIDs, the association with those adverse events could be investigated for four (27%) and 14 (93%), respectively. CONCLUSION: The VALORE project multi-database network has access to data on more than 140,000 biological drug users (and > 0.5 million PYs) from 13 Italian regions during the years 2010-2019, which will be further expanded with the inclusion of data from other regions and more recent calendar years. Overall, the cumulated amount of person-time of exposure to biological drugs approved for IMIDs provides enough statistical power to investigate weak/moderate associations of almost all individual compounds and the most relevant safety outcomes. Moreover, this network may offer the opportunity to investigate the interchangeability of originator and biosimilars of several TNFα inhibitors in different therapeutic areas in real-world settings.