Spatial spread of COVID-19 during the early pandemic phase in Italy.

Quantifying the potential spatial spread of an infectious pathogen is key to defining effective containment and control strategies. The aim of this study is to estimate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission at different distances in Italy before the first regional lockdown was imposed, identifying important sources of national spreading. To do this, we leverage on a probabilistic model applied to daily symptomatic cases retrospectively ascertained in each Italian municipality with symptom onset between January 28 and March 7, 2020. Results are validated using a multi-patch dynamic transmission model reproducing the spatiotemporal distribution of identified cases. Our results show that the contribution of short-distance ( ≤ 10 k m ) transmission increased from less than 40% in the last week of January to more than 80% in the first week of March 2020. On March 7, 2020, that is the day before the first regional lockdown was imposed, more than 200 local transmission foci were contributing to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy. At the time, isolation measures imposed only on municipalities with at least ten ascertained cases would have left uncontrolled more than 75% of spillover transmission from the already affected municipalities. In early March, national-wide restrictions were required to curb short-distance transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy.

Continued circulation of mpox: an epidemiological and phylogenetic assessment, European Region, 2023 to 2024.

During the summer of 2023, the European Region experienced a limited resurgence of mpox cases following the substantial outbreak in 2022. This increase was characterised by asynchronous and bimodal increases, with countries experiencing peaks at different times. The demographic profile of cases during the resurgence was largely consistent with those reported previously. All available sequences from the European Region belonged to clade IIb. Sustained efforts are crucial to control and eventually eliminate mpox in the European Region.

Characterization of the internal working-life exposome using minimally and non-invasive sampling methods - a narrative review.

During recent years, we are moving away from the 'one exposure, one disease'-approach in occupational settings and towards a more comprehensive approach, taking into account the totality of exposures during a life course by using an exposome approach. Taking an exposome approach however is accompanied by many challenges, one of which, for example, relates to the collection of biological samples. Methods used for sample collection in occupational exposome studies should ideally be minimally invasive, while at the same time sensitive, and enable meaningful repeated sampling in a large population and over a longer time period. This might be hampered in specific situations e.g., people working in remote areas, during pandemics or with flexible work hours. In these situations, using self-sampling techniques might offer a solution. Therefore, our aim was to identify existing self-sampling techniques and to evaluate the applicability of these techniques in an occupational exposome context by conducting a literature review. We here present an overview of current self-sampling methodologies used to characterize the internal exposome. In addition, the use of different biological matrices was evaluated and subdivided based on their level of invasiveness and applicability in an occupational exposome context. In conclusion, this review and the overview of self-sampling techniques presented herein can serve as a guide in the design of future (occupational) exposome studies while circumventing sample collection challenges associated with exposome studies.

COVID-19 response: effectiveness of weekly rapid risk assessments, Italy.

PROBLEM: After Italy's first national restriction measures in 2020, a robust approach was needed to monitor the emerging epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at subnational level and provide data to inform the strengthening or easing of epidemic control measures. APPROACH: We adapted the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control rapid risk assessment tool by including quantitative and qualitative indicators from existing national surveillance systems. We defined COVID-19 risk as a combination of the probability of uncontrolled transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and of an unsustainable impact of COVID-19 cases on hospital services, adjusted in relation to the health system's resilience. The monitoring system was implemented with no additional cost in May 2020. LOCAL SETTING: The infectious diseases surveillance system in Italy uses consistent data collection methods across the country's decentralized regions and autonomous provinces. RELEVANT CHANGES: Weekly risk assessments using this approach were sustainable in monitoring the epidemic at regional level from 4 May 2020 to 24 September 2021. The tool provided reliable assessments of when and where a rapid increase in demand for health-care services would occur if control or mitigation measures were not increased in the following 3 weeks. LESSONS LEARNT: Although the system worked well, framing the risk assessment tool in a legal decree hampered its flexibility, as indicators could not be changed without changing the law. The relative complexity of the tool, the impossibility of real-time validation and its use for the definition of restrictions posed communication challenges.

Population-wide measures due to the COVID-19 pandemic and exposome changes in the general population of Cyprus in March-May 2020.

Non-pharmacological interventions (e.g., stay-at-home orders, school closures, physical distancing) implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic are expected to have modified routines and lifestyles, eventually impacting key exposome parameters, including, among others, physical activity, diet and cleaning habits. The objectives were to describe the exposomic profile of the general Cypriot population and compliance to the population-wide measures implemented during March-May 2020 to lower the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and to simulate the population-wide measures' effect on social contacts and SARS-CoV-2 spread. A survey was conducted in March-May 2020 capturing different exposome parameters, e.g., individual characteristics, lifestyle/habits, time spent and contacts at home/work/elsewhere. We described the exposome parameters and their correlations. In an exposome-wide association analysis, we used the number of hours spent at home as an indicator of compliance to the measures. We generated synthetic human proximity networks, before and during the measures using the dynamic-[Formula: see text]1 model and simulated SARS-CoV-2 transmission (i.e., to identify possible places where higher transmission/number of cases could originate from) on the networks with a dynamic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model. Overall, 594 respondents were included in the analysis (mean age 45.7 years, > 50% in very good health and communicating daily with friends/family via phone/online). The median number of contacts at home and at work decreased during the measures (from 3 to 2 and from 12 to 0, respectively) and the hours spent at home increased, indicating compliance with the measures. Increased time spent at home during the measures was associated with time spent at work before the measures (ß= -0.87, 95% CI [-1.21,-0.53]) as well as with being retired vs employed (ß= 2.32, 95% CI [1.70, 2.93]). The temporal network analysis indicated that most cases originated at work, while the synthetic human proximity networks adequately reproduced the observed SARS-CoV-2 spread. Exposome approaches (i.e., holistic characterization of the spatiotemporal variation of multiple exposures) would aid the comprehensive description of population-wide measures' impact and explore how behaviors and networks may shape SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Gamma variants in Italy, February and March 2021.

BackgroundSeveral SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) have emerged through 2020 and 2021. There is need for tools to estimate the relative transmissibility of emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2 with respect to circulating strains.AimWe aimed to assess the prevalence of co-circulating VOC in Italy and estimate their relative transmissibility.MethodsWe conducted two genomic surveillance surveys on 18 February and 18 March 2021 across the whole Italian territory covering 3,243 clinical samples and developed a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of co-circulating strains.ResultsThe Alpha variant was already dominant on 18 February in a majority of regions/autonomous provinces (national prevalence: 54%) and almost completely replaced historical lineages by 18 March (dominant across Italy, national prevalence: 86%). We found a substantial proportion of the Gamma variant on 18 February, almost exclusively in central Italy (prevalence: 19%), which remained similar on 18 March. Nationally, the mean relative transmissibility of Alpha ranged at 1.55-1.57 times the level of historical lineages (95% CrI: 1.45-1.66). The relative transmissibility of Gamma varied according to the assumed degree of cross-protection from infection with other lineages and ranged from 1.12 (95% CrI: 1.03-1.23) with complete immune evasion to 1.39 (95% CrI: 1.26-1.56) for complete cross-protection.ConclusionWe assessed the relative advantage of competing viral strains, using a mathematical model assuming different degrees of cross-protection. We found substantial co-circulation of Alpha and Gamma in Italy. Gamma was not able to outcompete Alpha, probably because of its lower transmissibility.

Rapid increase in neuroinvasive West Nile virus infections in humans, Italy, July 2022.

As in 2018, when a large West Nile virus (WNV) epidemic occurred, the 2022 vector season in Italy was marked by an early onset of WNV circulation in mosquitoes and birds. Human infections were limited until early July, when we observed a rapid increase in the number of cases. We describe the epidemiology of human infections and animal and vector surveillance for WNV and compare the more consolidated data of June and July 2022 with the same period in 2018.

Impact of a Nationwide Lockdown on SARS-CoV-2 Transmissibility, Italy.

On March 11, 2020, Italy imposed a national lockdown to curtail the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We estimate that, 14 days after lockdown, the net reproduction number had dropped below 1 and remained stable at ¼0.76 (95% CI 0.67-0.85) in all regions for >3 of the following weeks.

Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases in non-Italian nationals notified to the Italian surveillance system.

BACKGROUND: International literature suggests that disadvantaged groups are at higher risk of morbidity and mortality from SARS-CoV-2 infection due to poorer living/working conditions and barriers to healthcare access. Yet, to date, there is no evidence of this disproportionate impact on non-national individuals, including economic migrants, short-term travellers and refugees. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Italian surveillance system of all COVID-19 laboratory-confirmed cases tested positive from the beginning of the outbreak (20th of February) to the 19th of July 2020. We used multilevel negative-binomial regression models to compare the case fatality and the rate of admission to hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) between Italian and non-Italian nationals. The analysis was adjusted for differences in demographic characteristics, pre-existing comorbidities, and period of diagnosis. RESULTS: We analyzed 213 180 COVID-19 cases, including 15 974 (7.5%) non-Italian nationals. We found that, compared to Italian cases, non-Italian cases were diagnosed at a later date and were more likely to be hospitalized {[adjusted rate ratio (ARR)=1.39, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.33-1.44]} and admitted to ICU (ARR=1.19, 95% CI: 1.07-1.32), with differences being more pronounced in those coming from countries with lower human development index (HDI). We also observed an increased risk of death in non-Italian cases from low-HDI countries (ARR=1.32, 95% CI: 1.01-1.75). CONCLUSIONS: A delayed diagnosis in non-Italian cases could explain their worse outcomes compared to Italian cases. Ensuring early access to diagnosis and treatment to non-Italians could facilitate the control of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and improve health outcomes in all people living in Italy, regardless of nationality.

Growth and neurodevelopment in low birth weight versus normal birth weight infants from birth to 24 months, born in an obstetric emergency hospital in Haiti, a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Low birthweight (LBW) infants are at higher risk of mortality and morbidity (growth, chronic disease and neurological problems) during their life. Due to the high incidence of (pre-) eclampsia in Haiti, LBW infants are common. We assessed the anthropometric growth (weight and length) and neurodevelopmental delay in LBW and normal birthweight (NBW) infants born at an obstetric emergency hospital in Port au Prince, Haiti, between 2014 and 2017. METHODS: Infants were followed at discharge and 3, 6, 12, 15, 18, 21 and 24 months of corrected gestational age. At each visit they underwent a physical checkup (weight, length, physical abnormalities, identification of morbidities). At 6, 12, 18 and 24 months they underwent a neurodevelopmental assessment using the Bayley Scale III (motor, cognitive and communication skills). We modelled the trajectories between birth and 24 months of age of NBW compared to LBW infants for weight, length, and raw scores for Bayley III assessments using mixed linear models. RESULTS: In total 500 LBW and 210 NBW infants were recruited of which 333 (46.7%) were followed up for 24 months (127 NBW; 60.5% and 206 LBW; 41.2%) and 150 died (LBW = 137 and NBW = 13). LBW and NBW babies gained a mean 15.8 g and 11.4 g per kg of weight from discharge per day respectively. The speed of weight gain decreased rapidly after 3 months in both groups. Both groups grow rapidly up to 6 months of age. LBW grew more than the NBW group during this period (22.8 cm vs. 21.1 cm). Both groups had WHZ scores <- 2 up to 15 months. At 24 months NBW babies scored significantly higher on the Bayley scales for gross motor, cognitive and receptive and expressive communication skills. There was no difference between the groups for fine motor skills. CONCLUSION: LBW babies that survive neonatal care in urban Haiti and live up to 24 months of age, perform similar to their NBW for weight, length and fine motor skills. LBW babies are delayed in gross motor, cognitive and communication skills development. Further research on the clinical significance of these findings and long term implications of this neurodevelopmental delay is needed.

West Nile virus in Europe: after action reviews of preparedness and response to the 2018 transmission season in Italy, Slovenia, Serbia and Greece.

BACKGROUND: After Action Reviews (AAR) with a One Health perspective were performed in Slovenia, Italy, Serbia and Greece following a severe West Nile virus (WNV) transmission season in 2018. A protocol combining traditional techniques and organizational process analysis was developed and then implemented in each country. RESULTS: In 2018, response to the unusually intense transmission season of WNV in Slovenia, Italy, Serbia and Greece took place through routine response mechanisms. None of the four countries declared a national or subnational emergency. We found a very strong consensus on the strengths identified in responding to this event. All countries indicated the availability of One Health Plans for surveillance and response; very high laboratory diagnostic capacity in the human, veterinary and entomology sectors and strong inter-sectoral collaboration with strong commitment of engaged institutions as critical in the management of the event. Finally, countries implementing One Health surveillance for WNV (in terms of early warning and early activation of prevention measures) consistently reported a positive impact on their activities, in particular when combining mosquito and bird surveillance with surveillance of cases in humans and equids. Recurring priority areas for improvement included: increasing knowledge on vector-control measures, ensuring the sustainability of vector monitoring and surveillance, and improving capacity to manage media pressure. CONCLUSIONS: The AARs presented here demonstrate the benefit of cross-sectoral and cross-disciplinary approaches to preparedness for West Nile virus outbreaks in Europe. In the coming years, priorities include fostering and strengthening arrangements that: enable coordinated One Health surveillance and response during WNV transmission seasons; ensure adequate laboratory capacities; strengthen risk communication; and fund longer-term research to address the knowledge gaps identified in this study.

Correction to: West Nile virus in Europe: after action reviews of preparedness and response to the 2018 transmission season in Italy, Slovenia, Serbia and Greece.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article.

Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases and estimates of the reproductive numbers 1 month into the epidemic, Italy, 28 January to 31 March 2020.

BackgroundOn 20 February 2020, a locally acquired coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case was detected in Lombardy, Italy. This was the first signal of ongoing transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the country. The number of cases in Italy increased rapidly and the country became the first in Europe to experience a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak.AimOur aim was to describe the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the first COVID-19 cases in Italy amid ongoing control measures.MethodsWe analysed all RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases reported to the national integrated surveillance system until 31 March 2020. We provide a descriptive epidemiological summary and estimate the basic and net reproductive numbers by region.ResultsOf the 98,716 cases of COVID-19 analysed, 9,512 were healthcare workers. Of the 10,943 reported COVID-19-associated deaths (crude case fatality ratio: 11.1%) 49.5% occurred in cases older than 80 years. Male sex and age were independent risk factors for COVID-19 death. Estimates of R0 varied between 2.50 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.18-2.83) in Tuscany and 3.00 (95% CI: 2.68-3.33) in Lazio. The net reproduction number Rt in northern regions started decreasing immediately after the first detection.ConclusionThe COVID-19 outbreak in Italy showed a clustering onset similar to the one in Wuhan, China. R0 at 2.96 in Lombardy combined with delayed detection explains the high case load and rapid geographical spread. Overall, Rt in Italian regions showed early signs of decrease, with large diversity in incidence, supporting the importance of combined non-pharmacological control measures.

[Integrated Surveillance in Italy: outputs and related activities]. / La sorveglianza integrata COVID-19 in Italia: output e attività correlate.

OBJECTIVES: to describe the integrated surveillance system of COVID-19 in Italy, to illustrate the outputs used to return epidemiological information on the spread of the epidemic to the competent public health bodies and to the Italian population, and to describe how the surveillance data contributes to the ongoing weekly regional monitoring and risk assessment system. METHODS: the COVID-19 integrated surveillance system is the result of a close and continuous collaboration between the Italian National Institute of Health (ISS), the Italian Ministry of Health, and the regional and local health authorities. Through a web platform, it collects individual data of laboratory confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection and gathers information on their residence, laboratory diagnosis, hospitalisation, clinical status, risk factors, and outcome. Results, for different levels of aggregation and risk categories, are published daily and weekly on the ISS website, and made available to national and regional public health authorities; these results contribute one of the information sources of the regional monitoring and risk assessment system. RESULTS: the COVID-19 integrated surveillance system monitors the space-time distribution of cases and their characteristics. Indicators used in the weekly regional monitoring and risk assessment system include process indicators on completeness and results indicators on weekly trends of newly diagnosed cases per Region. CONCLUSIONS: the outputs of the integrated surveillance system for COVID-19 provide timely information to health authorities and to the general population on the evolution of the epidemic in Italy. They also contribute to the continuous re-assessment of risk related to transmission and impact of the epidemic thus contributing to the management of COVID-19 in Italy.

[Temporal variations in excess mortality during phase 1 and phase 2 of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy]. / Variazioni temporali della mortalità totale e nei decessi per COVID-19 durante la fase 1 e la fase 2 dell'epidemia in Italia.

OBJECTIVES: to assess the temporal variation in excess total mortality and the portion of excess explained by COVID-19 deaths by geographical area, gender, and age during the COVID-19 epidemic. DESIGN: descriptive analysis of temporal variations of total excess deaths and COVID-19 deaths in the phase 1 and phase 2 of the epidemic in Italy. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: 12 Northern cities and 20 Central-Southern cities from December 2019 to June 2020: daily mortality from the National Surveillance System of Daily Mortality (SiSMG) and COVID-19 deaths from the integrated COVID-19 surveillance system. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: total mortality excess and COVID-19 deaths, defined as deaths in microbiologically confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2, by gender and age groups. RESULTS: the largest excess mortality was observed in the North and during the first phase of the epidemic. The portion of excess mortality explained by COVID-19 decreases with age, decreasing to 51% among the very old (>=85 years). In phase 2 (until June 2020), the impact was more contained and totally attributable to COVID-19 deaths and this suggests an effectiveness of social distancing measures. CONCLUSIONS: mortality surveillance is a sensible information basis for the monitoring of health impact of the different phases of the epidemic and supporting decision making at the local and national level on containment measures to put in place in coming months.

Secondary Autochthonous Outbreak of Chikungunya, Southern Italy, 2017.

In 2017, a chikungunya outbreak in central Italy later evolved into a secondary cluster in southern Italy, providing evidence of disease emergence in new areas. Officials have taken action to raise awareness among clinicians and the general population, increase timely case detection, reduce mosquito breeding sites, and promote mosquito bite prevention.

Spatiotemporal distribution and determinants of measles incidence during a large outbreak, Italy, September 2016 to July 2018.

BackgroundMeasles is still endemic in Italy and outbreaks are frequent. From 2016 to 2018, more than 7,000 measles cases were reported to the national integrated measles and rubella surveillance system, the largest outbreak since implementation of this system.AimWe aimed to describe the characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of measles cases in Italy and explore determinants of incidence at municipality level.MethodsWe performed a retrospective observational study, mapping by municipalityall measles cases reported to the national surveillance system with symptom onset between 1 September 2016 and 31 July 2018. We also analysed measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination coverage (VC) data (2000-2017) for the first and second dose, collected from the Ministry of Health. We used regression analysis to explore factors associated with measles incidence at municipality level.ResultsWe analysed 7,854 cases, 3,927 (50%) female. Median age was 26 years; 475 cases (6%) were younger than 1 year. The outbreak occurred in two epidemic waves. The first started in central/northern regions (end of 2016), the second (mostly within 2018) was concentrated in southern regions. In 2016 and 2017, national VC was below 95% for both MMR doses. In 2017, only one region reported VC above 95% for the first dose. At municipality level, incidence was associated with higher urbanisation, less deprivation and fewer adults.ConclusionThe spread of measles between September 2016 and July 2018 in Italy indicates the need to improve VC and to explore further how societal and other parameters might be linked to incidence.

High rate of transmission in a pulmonary tuberculosis outbreak in a primary school, north-eastern Italy, 2019.

Italy is a low-incidence country for tuberculosis (TB). We describe a TB outbreak in a primary school in north-eastern Italy, involving 10 cases of active pulmonary disease and 42 cases of latent infection. The index case was detected in March 2019, while the primary case, an Italian-born schoolteacher, was likely infectious since January 2018. Administration of a pre-employment health questionnaire to school staff with sustained contact with children should be considered in low-incidence countries.

Coupling Urinary Trihalomethanes and Metabolomic Profiles of Type II Diabetes: A Case-Control Study.

Abiding by the exposome paradigm, incorporation of external and internal exposure metrics using metabolomics tools is warranted to refine the etiology of type II diabetes (T2D). A small (n = 51) age- and sex-matched case-control study was conducted in Cyprus coupling urinary trihalomethanes (THMs) with T2D. The objectives were to (i) perform a comparative assessment of different deconvolution parameters in compound identification and (ii) evaluate the association between differentially expressed metabolites and either urinary THM or T2D status. Untargeted urinary metabolomics was performed with a GC-MS triple quadrupole mass spectrometry system. Results of three deconvolution searches each yielding >130 metabolites were used in subsequent analyses. The number of differentially expressed compounds by T2D status or the urinary THM levels (above or below median) differed among the three searches. The identity of these compounds was also confirmed using known standards (level 1 identification). In multivariate logistic regression, 3-aminoisobutyric acid was an important predictor of lower odds of T2D after adjusting for known risk factors. The widespread incorporation of metabolomics in population studies accounting for environmental exposures will eventually pave the way for the exposome characterization, also improving our understanding of the disease process.

Biomarkers of end of shift exposure to disinfection byproducts in nurses.

Increased disinfectant use commonly takes place in hospitals and other health care settings. A cross-sectional study among active nurses in two Cypriot public hospitals (n=179) was conducted to examine the prevalence of exposure to disinfection byproducts (DBPs), such as trihalomethanes (THMs) using both self-reported information and biomarker measurements. The objectives of this study were to: i) quantify the magnitude and variability of occupational exposure to disinfectants/DBPs in nurses, ii) generate job exposure matrices (JEM) and job task exposure matrices (JTEM) for disinfectants, and iii) assess the major determinants of urinary THMs in nurses. End of shift urinary total THM values showed high variability among the nurses, but did not differ between hospitals. The disinfectant group of alcohols/phenols was used by >98% of nurses, followed by octenidine (82%), iodine and chlorine (39%, each), chlorhexidine (25%), formaldehyde (12%), hydrogen peroxide (11%), and peracetic acid/ammonia/quaternary ammonium compounds (QACs), all being <8% each. Chlorine use during the past 24hr was associated with significantly (p<0.05) lower brominated THMs (BrTHMs) after adjusting for age, gender and BMI, while a positive association was shown for TCM and the sum of all THMs (TTHMs), albeit not significant. Nurses were exposed to nearly double the levels of TTHMs and BrTHMs (median and IQR, 1027 [560, 2475] ng/g and 323 [212, 497] ng/g, respectively) when compared to those of the general population (552 [309,989] ng/g and 152 [87,261] ng/g, respectively). This was the first occupational health dataset reporting measurements of biomarkers of end of shift exposures to disinfectants/DBPs.