Controlling HIV in Africa: effectiveness and cost of an intervention in a high-frequency STD transmitter core group.

Since 1985, a population of over 1,000 predominantly HIV-positive female prostitutes residing in a low-income area of Nairobi, has been enrolled in a sexually transmitted disease (STD)/HIV control programme. The major elements of the programme include the diagnosis and treatment of conventional STD, and the promotion of condom use to prevent the transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. Using estimates of numbers of HIV-seropositive prostitutes, numbers of sexual contacts, susceptibility of clients to HIV, HIV transmission efficiency, rates of condom use and the basic reproductive rate of HIV infection in Kenya, we estimate that the programme is responsible for preventing between 6,000 and 10,000 new cases of HIV infection per year among clients and contacts of clients. The total annual operating cost of the programme is approximately US$77,000 or between US$8.00 and US$12.00 for each case of HIV infection prevented. Programmes to reduce the transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections which are targeted at high-frequency STD transmitters, such as prostitutes, can be effective and relatively inexpensive to undertake. More such programmes should be developed and evaluated in different settings.

Transition dynamics of HIV disease in a cohort of African prostitutes: a Markov model approach.

The progression of HIV-related disease from infection to death is represented as a staged Markov model. Transitions between stages are considered reversible. The model is fitted to data from a cohort of African prostitutes by means of maximum likelihood. It appears that the progression to symptomatic disease (Centers for Disease Control stage IV) in this population is considerably more rapid than that reported from studies in Western countries.

PIP: Identifying the incubation period of HIV infection is important for individual prognoses, for developing and testing intervention strategies, for determining the reproductive rate of the disease, and for prevalence of the disease. Mathematical modeling of HIV infection in Africa is necessitated because the disease is more widespread and the immune system is constantly active due to the exposure to diseases such as malaria and tuberculosis. The Markov model for this analysis was selected because parametric estimation is not based on the time a stage is entered, but on the duration between observations and the stages at the time of observation. The HIV infected female prostitutes in the Pumwani area of Nairobi, Kenya (a population primarily of Tanzanian origin) have been identified as a study population since 1985, and seen every 6 months in clinic, or as needed. Data are constricted by the movement out of the area in the end stage of disease, which is only partially solved by tracking with community health workers. The stages identified in incubation estimation are stage 1: seropositive but symptom free (CDC stage II); stage 2: generalized lymphadenopathy (CDC stage III); stage 3: symptomatic disease (CDC stage IV); and stage 4: death. Data reflect the movement back and forth between stage 1 and 2, between 2 and 3, so the model is not a pure Longini model but rather a timed homogeneous staged model with reversible stages called transition parameters computed in a numerical differentiation. The Fortran computer program for the analyses is available from the authors. The results suggest a quick transition between seroconversion and lymphadenopathy (2.4 months) and unlikely reversal, with the mean waiting time until passage to stage 3 is approximately 2.6 years and conversions are common. Since opportunistic infections are treatable, this makes sense. Assuming a correct model, the estimation of the transition time of 20 months of h34 value of .01 and .05, the mean passage time from stage 1, 2, 3 to 4 (death) is 9.1, 8.9, and 6.2 years 12.9, 12.7, and 10.1 years respectively. The implications are that 1) when infectiousness is hypothesized to be not uniform, peak infectivity occurs earlier in Africa than in the West at least among prostitutes, or 2) if infectivity is constant throughout the incubation period, then HIV transmission must be higher in Africa to explain the high rate of infection.

Naturally occurring IgG anti-HLA alloantibody does not correlate with HIV type 1 resistance in Nairobi prostitutes.

In an effort to identify an immunological basis for natural resistance to HIV-1 infection, we have examined serum antibody responses to HLA class I antigens in female prostitutes of the Nairobi Sex Workers Study. Anti-HLA antibodies are known to block HIV infectivity in vitro and can be protective against SIV challenge in macaques immunized with purified class I HLA. Thus, it was postulated that broadly cross-reactive alloantibodies recognizing common HLA alleles in the client population might contribute to the prevention of heterosexual transmission of HIV. In fact, 12% of the women were found to have serum IgG antibodies against class I alloantigens. However, this alloantibody did not correlate with the HIV status of the women and was found in a similar proportion of HIV-positive and HIV-resistant women. The observed levels of alloantibody did not increase with HIV infection in susceptible individuals, suggesting that potential antigenic mimicry between HIV and host HLA class I antigens does not significantly increase levels of anti-class I antibodies. The lack of correlation between serum anti-allo-class I HLA antibodies and the risk of sexual transmission indicates that this humoral immune response is unlikely to be the natural mechanism behind the HIV-resistance phenotype of persistently HIV-seronegative women. This result, however, does not preclude the further investigation of alloimmunization as an artificial HIV immunization strategy.

Low dose erythromycin regimen for the treatment of chancroid.

Haemophilus ducreyi is the commonest cause of genital ulcer disease in Africa and is associated with heterosexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus(HIV). The World Health Organization currently recommends erythromycin 500 mg three times a day for seven days as the treatment of choice for Haemophilus ducreyi infection. We studied the effectiveness of a lower dose erythromycin treatment regime, 250 mg three times a day for seven days in the treatment of chancroid. Patients with genital ulcer disease presenting at Nairobi City council clinic between January and March, 1992 were recruited into the study. Swabs were taken from the ulcers for Haemophilus ducreyi and venous blood was screened for syphilis and HIV antibodies. A total of 219 patients were enrolled for the study and were reviewed on days seven and fourteen for side effects, bacteriological and clinical cure rates. 26.4% of the study population were HIV-1 seropositive. The treatment regime was well tolerated and effective in both HIV seropositive and seronegative patients. Complete bacteriological cure rate was achieved in Haemophilus ducreyi culture positives by day seven irrespective of the HIV serostatus. However, the clinical cure rate for HIV seropositive patients was 88% compared to 99% for seronegative patients (p<.001). It is concluded that a low dose erythromycin is an inexpensive and effective treatment for chancroid with complete bacteriological cure rate, although the healing process takes longer in HIV seropositive patients.

Breastfeeding and immunity to intestinal infections.

The purpose of this study was to compare immune response in breast and non breastfed children presenting with diarrhoea at Paediatric Observation Ward, Kenyatta National Hospital (KNH-POW) and Maternal and Child Health Clinic, Pumwani Maternity Hospital (PMH-MCH). Blood and stool samples were collected from the first four consecutive children aged 5 years and below per day, presenting with or without diarrhoea from January to December, 1992. The stools were tested for total IgA by single radial immunodiffusion (SRID) and specific IgA by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Peripheral blood CD4 and CD8 enumeration was done by flow cytometry. Stools were cultured for bacteria on selective media while ova and cysts of parasites were identified by wet preparation microscopy. A total of 457 children were enrolled into the study, 69.6% of whom presented with diarrhoea. Breastfed children tended to have a shorter duration of diarrhoea than either mixed fed or bottle fed (8.3 vs 9.8 vs 11.2 days, p = 0.2). In general, E. coli were more commonly isolated from breastfed than mixed fed or bottle fed (56.7% vs 43.9% vs 28.9%, p = 0.004) while intestinal parasites were mostly in bottle fed than mixed or breastfed children (28.8% vs 8.2 vs 0.8, p < 0.004). However, when children with diarrhoea were considered, E. coli was more frequently isolated from bottle fed children who presented with diarrhoea than without (26.7% vs 7.7%, p = 0.03).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Effect of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 viral genotype on mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1.

The objective of this study was to determine whether the maternal infecting human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 clade affects mother-to-child transmission frequency. Mothers in the mother-to-child HIV-1 transmission study in Nairobi, Kenya, were grouped by HIV-1 status of their first enrolled child: uninfected, perinatally infected, or postnatally infected. Restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis was used to determine HIV-1 viral clades of nested polymerase chain reaction products from HIV-1 protease or p24 genes. When inconclusive, sequencing determined the clade. Clade distributions within the groups were compared. The 3 groups displayed a uniform clade distribution. The predominant clades were A (59%) and D (20%). Clades B, C, F, mixed, and recombinant infections comprised the remainder (21%). No significant association was seen between clades A and D and either frequency or mode of vertical transmission. RFLP analysis revealed 2 clade B infections, 9 mixed, and 5 p24/protease recombinant infections in the study population.

Acute sexually transmitted infections increase human immunodeficiency virus type 1 plasma viremia, increase plasma type 2 cytokines, and decrease CD4 cell counts.

In Kenya, the median incubation time to AIDS in seroconverting sex workers is 4 years; this incubation time is specific to female sex workers. We studied the influence of acute sexually transmitted infections (STIs) on several immunologic parameters in 32 human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-positive and 10 HIV-1-negative women sex workers who were followed for 1-5 months. Plasma cytokines, soluble cytokine receptors, CD4 and CD8 T cell counts, and HIV-1 plasma viremia were quantitated before, during, and after episodes of STI. Increases in interleukin (IL)-4, IL-6, IL-10, soluble tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha, and viremia and a decline in CD4(+) T cell counts occurred during gonococcal cervicitis and returned to baseline after treatment. Increases in viremia correlated with increased IL-4 and decreased IL-6 concentrations. Similar changes were seen among women with acute pelvic inflammatory disease. Acute bacterial STI resulted in increased HIV-1 viremia. This may be mediated through increased inflammatory cytokines or through modulation of immune responses that control HIV-1 viremia.

Resistance to HIV-1 infection among persistently seronegative prostitutes in Nairobi, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: There is indirect evidence that HIV-1 exposure does not inevitably lead to persistent infection. Heterogeneity in susceptibility to infection could be due to protective immunity. The objective of this study was to find out whether in highly HIV-1-exposed populations some individuals are resistant to infection. METHODS: We did an observational cohort study of incident HIV-1 infection-among 424 initially HIV-1-seronegative prostitutes in Nairobi, Kenya, between 1985 and 1994. 239 women seroconverted to HIV-1 during the study period. Exponential, Weibull, and mixture survival models were used to examine the effect of the duration of follow-up on incidence of HIV-1 infection. The influence of the duration of exposure to HIV-1 through prostitution on seroconversion risk was examined by Cox proportional hazards modelling, with control for other known or suspected risk factors for incident HIV-1 infection. HIV-1 PCR with env, nef, and vif gene primers was done on 43 persistently seronegative prostitutes who remained seronegative after 3 or more years of follow-up. FINDINGS: Modelling of the time to HIV-1 seroconversion showed that the incidence of HIV-1 seroconversion decreased with increasing duration of exposure, which indicates that there is heterogeneity in HIV-1 susceptibility or acquired immunity to HIV-1. Each weighted year of exposure through prostitution resulted in a 1.2-fold reduction in HIV-1 seroconversion risk (hazard ratio 0.83 [95% CI 0.79-0.88], p < 0.0001). Analyses of epidemiological and laboratory data, show that persistent seronegativity is not explained by seronegative HIV-1 infection or by differences in risk factors for HIV-1 infection such as safer sexual behaviours or the incidence of other sexually transmitted infections. INTERPRETATION: We conclude that a small proportion of highly exposed individuals, who may have natural protective immunity to HIV-1, are resistant to HIV-1.

PIP: A cohort study conducted in 1985-94 among 424 prostitutes from Nairobi, Kenya, who were initially human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 seronegative, tended to provide support for the observation that some individuals in highly exposed populations may be resistant to infection. During the 10-year study period, 239 of these women seroconverted. The overall HIV-1 incidence was 42/100 person-years. After the first 2 years of follow up, in which the majority of seroconversions occurred, HIV-1 prevalence reached a plateau and then began a steep decline. To determine whether the risk of HIV-1 infection declined over time as a result of the selection of resistance, incidence rates among women with less than 3 years' versus more than 3 years' duration of prostitution were compared for 1989-93. An increasing protective effect for each seronegative year of exposure was observed. The estimated cumulative protective effect for women practicing prostitution from 1984-93 and remaining seronegative, compared to women who entered prostitution in 1994, was over 100-fold. To rule out the possibility that the decrease in seroconversion with duration of exposure reflected differences in sexual behavior or immunity to sexually transmitted diseases that facilitate HIV transmission, Cox proportional hazards modelling was performed. The weighted duration of prostitution was independently associated with a decreased risk of seroconversion. Each weighted year of exposure resulted in a 1.2-fold decrease in risk. Women who seroconverted were more likely to report 1 or more regular partners and to use condoms with these partners than their counterparts who remained seronegative. Elucidation of the protective mechanisms and the factors mediating the development of immunity against HIV-1 could be important to HIV-1 vaccine research.