Interindividual Differences in Cognitive Variability Are Ubiquitous and Distinct From Mean Performance in a Battery of Eleven Tasks.

Our performance on cognitive tasks fluctuates: the same individual completing the same task will differ in their response's moment-to-moment. For decades cognitive fluctuations have been implicitly ignored - treated as measurement error - with a focus instead on aggregates such as mean performance. Leveraging dense trial-by-trial data and novel time-series methods we explored variability as an intrinsically important phenotype. Across eleven cognitive tasks with over 7 million trials, we found highly reliable interindividual differences in cognitive variability in every task we examined. These differences are both qualitatively and quantitatively distinct from mean performance. Moreover, we found that a single dimension for variability across tasks was inadequate, demonstrating that previously posited global mechanisms for cognitive variability are at least partially incomplete. Our findings indicate that variability is a fundamental part of cognition - with the potential to offer novel insights into developmental processes.

Common Cause Versus Dynamic Mutualism: An Empirical Comparison of Two Theories of Psychopathology in Two Large Longitudinal Cohorts.

Mental disorders are among the leading causes of global disease burden. To respond effectively, a strong understanding of the structure of psychopathology is critical. We empirically compared two competing frameworks, dynamic-mutualism theory and common-cause theory, that vie to explain the development of psychopathology. We formalized these theories in statistical models and applied them to explain change in the general factor of psychopathology (p factor) from early to late adolescence (N = 1,482) and major depression in middle adulthood and old age (N = 6,443). Change in the p factor was better explained by mutualism according to model-fit indices. However, a core prediction of mutualism was not supported (i.e., predominantly positive causal interactions among distinct domains). The evidence for change in depression was more ambiguous. Our results support a multicausal approach to understanding psychopathology and showcase the value of translating theories into testable statistical models for understanding developmental processes in clinical sciences.

Protocol and preregistration for the CODEC project: measuring, modelling and mechanistically understanding the nature of cognitive variability in early childhood.

BACKGROUND: Children's cognitive performance fluctuates across multiple timescales. However, fluctuations have often been neglected in favour of research into average cognitive performance, limiting the unique insights into cognitive abilities and development that cognitive variability may afford. Preliminary evidence suggests that greater variability is associated with increased symptoms of neurodevelopmental disorders, and differences in behavioural and neural functioning. The relative dearth of empirical work on variability, historically limited due to a lack of suitable data and quantitative methodology, has left crucial questions unanswered, which the CODEC (COgnitive Dynamics in Early Childhood) study aims to address. METHOD: The CODEC cohort is an accelerated 3-year longitudinal study which encompasses 600 7-to-10-year-old children. Each year includes a 'burst' week (3 times per day, 5 days per week) of cognitive measurements on five cognitive domains (reasoning, working memory, processing speed, vocabulary, exploration), conducted both in classrooms and at home through experience sampling assessments. We also measure academic outcomes and external factors hypothesised to predict cognitive variability, including sleep, mood, motivation and background noise. A subset of 200 children (CODEC-MRI) are invited for two deep phenotyping sessions (in year 1 and year 3 of the study), including structural and functional magnetic resonance imaging, eye-tracking, parental measurements and questionnaire-based demographic and psychosocial measures. We will quantify developmental differences and changes in variability using Dynamic Structural Equation Modelling, allowing us to simultaneously capture variability and the multilevel structure of trials nested in sessions, days, children and classrooms. DISCUSSION: CODEC's unique design allows us to measure variability across a range of different cognitive domains, ages, and temporal resolutions. The deep-phenotyping arm allows us to test hypotheses concerning variability, including the role of mind wandering, strategy exploration, mood, sleep, and brain structure. Due to CODEC's longitudinal nature, we are able to quantify which measures of variability at baseline predict long-term outcomes. In summary, the CODEC study is a unique longitudinal study combining experience sampling, an accelerated longitudinal 'burst' design, deep phenotyping, and cutting-edge statistical methodologies to better understand the nature, causes, and consequences of cognitive variability in children. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov - NCT06330090.

Common Factors and Interpretation of the p Factor of Psychopathology.

One of the most discussed recent topics in psychopathology research is the p factor of mental illness. This single dimension is understood to measure "a person's liability to mental disorder, comorbidity among disorders, persistence of disorders over time, and severity of symptoms."1 A recent paper by Constantinou et al.2 published in the Journal investigated the external validity of the p factor. We commend the authors for the contribution to the literature and want to highlight two points: (1) the interpretation of p as a causal entity, and (2) selection of bifactor models over alternative models for reasons of superior fit.