Cost-Effectiveness of Vericiguat in Patients With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction: The VICTORIA Randomized Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: The VICTORIA trial (Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction) demonstrated that, in patients with high-risk heart failure, vericiguat reduced the primary composite outcome of cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization relative to placebo. The hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.84-1.07). In a prespecified analysis, treatment effects varied substantially as a function of baseline NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) levels, with survival benefit for vericiguat in the lower NT-proBNP quartiles (hazard ratio, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.69-0.97]) and no benefit in the highest NT-proBNP quartile (hazard ratio, 1.14 [95% CI, 0.95-1.38]). An economic analysis was a major secondary objective of the VICTORIA research program. METHODS: Medical resource use data were collected for all VICTORIA patients (N=5050). Costs were estimated by applying externally derived US cost weights to resource use counts. Life expectancy was projected from patient-level empirical trial survival results with the use of age-based survival modeling methods. Quality-of-life adjustments were based on prospectively collected EQ-5D-based utilities. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, comparing vericiguat with placebo, assessed from the US health care sector perspective over a lifetime horizon. Cost-effectiveness was estimated using the total VICTORIA cohort, both with and without interaction between treatment and baseline NT-proBNP. RESULTS: Life expectancy modeling results varied according to whether the observed heterogeneity of treatment effect by baseline NT-proBNP values was incorporated into the modeling. Including the interaction term, the vericiguat arm had an estimated quality-adjusted life expectancy of 4.56 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) compared with 4.13 QALYs for placebo (incremental discounted QALY, 0.43). Without the treatment heterogeneity/interaction term, vericiguat had 4.50 QALYs compared with 4.33 QALYs for placebo (incremental discounted QALY, 0.17). Incremental discounted costs (vericiguat minus placebo) were $28 546 with the treatment interaction and $20 948 without it. Corresponding incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were $66 509 per QALY allowing for treatment heterogeneity and $124 512 without heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: Vericiguat use in the VICTORIA trial met criteria for intermediate value, but the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio estimates were sensitive to whether the analysis accounted for observed NT-proBNP treatment effect heterogeneity. The cost-effectiveness of vericiguat was driven by the projected incremental life expectancy among patients in the lowest 3 quartiles of NT-proBNP. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT02861534.

STREAM-2: Half-Dose Tenecteplase or Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in Older Patients With ST-Segment-Elevation Myocardial Infarction: A Randomized, Open-Label Trial.

BACKGROUND: ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) guidelines recommend pharmaco-invasive treatment if timely primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is unavailable. Full-dose tenecteplase is associated with an increased risk of intracranial hemorrhage in older patients. Whether pharmaco-invasive treatment with half-dose tenecteplase is effective and safe in older patients with STEMI is unknown. METHODS: STREAM-2 (Strategic Reperfusion in Elderly Patients Early After Myocardial Infarction) was an investigator-initiated, open-label, randomized, multicenter study. Patients ≥60 years of age with ≥2 mm ST-segment elevation in 2 contiguous leads, unable to undergo primary PCI within 1 hour, were randomly assigned (2:1) to half-dose tenecteplase followed by coronary angiography and PCI (if indicated) 6 to 24 hours after randomization, or to primary PCI. Efficacy end points of primary interest were ST resolution and the 30-day composite of death, shock, heart failure, or reinfarction. Safety assessments included stroke and nonintracranial bleeding. RESULTS: Patients were assigned to pharmaco-invasive treatment (n=401) or primary PCI (n=203). Median times from randomization to tenecteplase or sheath insertion were 10 and 81 minutes, respectively. After last angiography, 85.2% of patients undergoing pharmaco-invasive treatment and 78.4% of patients undergoing primary PCI had ≥50% resolution of ST-segment elevation; their residual median sums of ST deviations were 4.5 versus 5.5 mm, respectively. Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction flow grade 3 at last angiography was ≈87% in both groups. The composite clinical end point occurred in 12.8% (51/400) of patients undergoing pharmaco-invasive treatment and 13.3% (27/203) of patients undergoing primary PCI (relative risk, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.62-1.48]). Six intracranial hemorrhages occurred in the pharmaco-invasive arm (1.5%): 3 were protocol violations (excess anticoagulation in 2 and uncontrolled hypertension in 1). No intracranial bleeding occurred in the primary PCI arm. The incidence of major nonintracranial bleeding was low in both groups (<1.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Halving the dose of tenecteplase in a pharmaco-invasive strategy in this early-presenting, older STEMI population was associated with electrocardiographic changes that were at least comparable to those after primary PCI. Similar clinical efficacy and angiographic end points occurred in both treatment groups. The risk of intracranial hemorrhage was higher with half-dose tenecteplase than with primary PCI. If timely PCI is unavailable, this pharmaco-invasive strategy is a reasonable alternative, provided that contraindications to fibrinolysis are observed and excess anticoagulation is avoided. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT02777580.

Comparing Analytical Methods for Composite End Points in Clinical Trials: Insights from the Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction Trial.

BACKGROUND: In VICTORIA (Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction), participants with heart failure (HF) and reduced ejection fraction, vericiguat decreased the primary composite outcome (time to first HF hospitalization [HFH] or cardiovascular death [CVD]) (897 events) compared with placebo (972 events) (hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82-0.98; P = .02). In this prespecified secondary analysis, we applied the weighted composite end point (WCE) and the win ratio (WR) methods to provide complementary assessments of treatment effect. METHODS AND RESULTS: The WCE method estimated the mean HFH-adjusted survival based on prespecified weights from a Delphi panel of the VICTORIA executive committee and national leaders: mild (weight per event, 0.39), moderate (0.5), or severe (0.67) HFH, and CVD (1.0). The unmatched WR was estimated for the descending hierarchy of CVD, then recurrent HFH. The WCE used all 3412 primary clinical events: 875 severe HFH (vericiguat, 416/ placebo, 459), 1614 moderate HFH (767/847), 68 mild HFH (38/30), and 855 CVD (414/441). Improved HFH-adjusted survival occurred with vericiguat (mean 78.2% vs 75.6%, difference 2.4%, 95% CI, 1.7%-3.2%, P < .0001). Based on a comparison of 6,375,624 pairs, the WR of 1.13 (95% CI 1.03-1.24, P = .01) also indicated improved clinical outcomes with vericiguat. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the WCE and WR methods were consistent with the primary analysis of the time to first HFH or CVD. Although both WCE and WR assessed recurrent events, the WCE allowed inclusion of all recurrent events, insights on the severity of HFH events, and an absolute measure of the participant-treatment experience. This approach complements conventional assessment, better informing consumers of new therapeutics and future trial designs.

Vericiguat in Patients with Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND: The effect of vericiguat, a novel oral soluble guanylate cyclase stimulator, in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction who had recently been hospitalized or had received intravenous diuretic therapy is unclear. METHODS: In this phase 3, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, we assigned 5050 patients with chronic heart failure (New York Heart Association class II, III, or IV) and an ejection fraction of less than 45% to receive vericiguat (target dose, 10 mg once daily) or placebo, in addition to guideline-based medical therapy. The primary outcome was a composite of death from cardiovascular causes or first hospitalization for heart failure. RESULTS: Over a median of 10.8 months, a primary-outcome event occurred in 897 of 2526 patients (35.5%) in the vericiguat group and in 972 of 2524 patients (38.5%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82 to 0.98; P = 0.02). A total of 691 patients (27.4%) in the vericiguat group and 747 patients (29.6%) in the placebo group were hospitalized for heart failure (hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.81 to 1.00). Death from cardiovascular causes occurred in 414 patients (16.4%) in the vericiguat group and in 441 patients (17.5%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.81 to 1.06). The composite of death from any cause or hospitalization for heart failure occurred in 957 patients (37.9%) in the vericiguat group and in 1032 patients (40.9%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.83 to 0.98; P = 0.02). Symptomatic hypotension occurred in 9.1% of the patients in the vericiguat group and in 7.9% of the patients in the placebo group (P = 0.12), and syncope occurred in 4.0% of the patients in the vericiguat group and in 3.5% of the patients in the placebo group (P = 0.30). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with high-risk heart failure, the incidence of death from cardiovascular causes or hospitalization for heart failure was lower among those who received vericiguat than among those who received placebo. (Funded by Merck Sharp & Dohme [a subsidiary of Merck] and Bayer; VICTORIA ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02861534.).

Classification of Heart Failure Events by Severity: Insights From the VICTORIA Trial.

BACKGROUND: Hospitalization due to heart failure (HFH) is a major source of morbidity, consumes significant economic resources and is a key endpoint in HF clinical trials. HFH events vary in severity and implications, but they are typically considered equivalent when analyzing clinical trial outcomes. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to evaluate the frequency and severity of HF events, assess treatment effects and describe differences in outcomes by type of HF event in VICTORIA (Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction). METHODS: VICTORIA compared vericiguat with placebo in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction (< 45%) and a recent worsening HF event. All HFHs were prospectively adjudicated by an independent clinical events committee (CEC) whose members were blinded to treatment assignment. We evaluated the frequency and clinical impact of HF events by severity, categorized by highest intensity of HF treatment (urgent outpatient visit or hospitalization treated with oral diuretics, intravenous diuretics, intravenous vasodilators, intravenous inotropes, or mechanical support) and treatment effect by event categories. RESULTS: In VICTORIA, 2948 HF events occurred in 5050 enrolled patients. Overall total CEC HF events for vericiguat vs placebo were 43.9 vs 49.1 events/100 patient-years (P = 0.01). Hospitalization for intravenous diuretics was the most common type of HFH event (54%). HF event types differed markedly in their clinical implications for both in-hospital and post-discharge events. We observed no difference in the distribution of HF events between randomized treatment groups (P = 0.78). CONCLUSION: HF events in large global trials vary significantly in severity and clinical implications, which may have implications for more nuanced trial design and interpretation. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02861534).

Assessment of Biomarkers of Myocardial injury, Inflammation, and Renal Function in Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction: The VICTORIA Biomarker Substudy.

BACKGROUND: Circulating biomarkers may be useful in understanding prognosis and treatment efficacy in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. In the VICTORIA (Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction) trial, vericiguat, a soluble guanylate cyclase stimulator, decreased the primary outcome of cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. We evaluated biomarkers of cardiac injury, inflammation, and renal function for associations with outcomes and vericiguat treatment effect. METHODS AND RESULTS: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), interleukin-6 (IL-6), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), and cystatin C were measured at baseline and 16 weeks. Associations of biomarkers with the primary outcome and its components were estimated. Interaction with study treatment was tested. Changes in biomarkers over time were examined by study treatment. One or more biomarkers were measured in 4652 (92%) of 5050 participants at baseline and 4063 (81%) at 16 weeks. After adjustment, higher values of hs-cTnT, growth differentiation factor-15, and interleukin-6 were associated with the primary outcome, independent of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide. Higher hs-cTnT values were associated with a hazard ratio per log standard deviation of 1.21 (95% confidence interval 1.14-1.27). A treatment interaction with vericiguat was evident with hs-cTnT and cardiovascular death (P = .04), but not HF hospitalization (P = .38). All biomarkers except cystatin C decreased over 16 weeks and no relationship between treatment assignment and changes in biomarker levels was observed. CONCLUSIONS: hs-cTnT, growth differentiation factor-15, and interleukin-6 levels were associated with risk of the primary outcome in VICTORIA (Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction). Uniquely, lower hs-cTnT was associated with a lower rate of cardiovascular death but not HF hospitalization after treatment with vericiguat.

Left main coronary disease: evolving management concepts.

Remarkable advances in the management of coronary artery disease have enhanced our approach to left main coronary artery (LMCA) disease. The traditional role of coronary artery bypass graft surgery has been challenged by the less invasive percutaneous coronary interventional approach. Additionally, major strides in optimal medical therapy now provide a rich menu of treatment choices in selected circumstances. Although a LMCA stenosis >70% is an acceptable threshold for revascularization, those patients with a LMCA narrowing between 40 and 69% present a more complex scenario. This review examines the relative merits of the different treatment options, addresses key diagnostic and therapeutic unknowns, and identifies future work likely to advance progress.

Hemoglobin and Clinical Outcomes in the Vericiguat Global Study in Patients With Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction (VICTORIA).

BACKGROUND: In the VICTORIA trial (Vericiguat Global Study in Patients with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction), anemia occurred more often in patients treated with vericiguat (7.6%) than with placebo (5.7%). We explored the association between vericiguat, randomization hemoglobin, development of anemia, and whether the benefit of vericiguat related to baseline hemoglobin. METHODS: Anemia was defined as hemoglobin <13.0 g/dL in men and <12.0 g/dL in women (World Health Organization Anemia). Adverse events reported as anemia were also evaluated. We assessed the risk-adjusted relationship between hemoglobin and hematocrit with the primary outcome (composite of cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization) and the time-updated hemoglobin relationship to outcomes. RESULTS: At baseline, 1719 (35.7%) patients had World Health Organization anemia; median hemoglobin was 13.4 g/L (25th, 75th percentile: 12.1, 14.7 g/dL). At 16 weeks from randomization, 1643 patients had World Health Organization anemia (284 new for vericiguat and 219 for placebo), which occurred more often with vericiguat than placebo (P<0.001). After 16 weeks, no further decline in hemoglobin occurred over 96 weeks of follow-up and the ratio of hemoglobin/hematocrit remained constant. Overall, adverse event anemia occurred in 342 patients (7.1%). A lower hemoglobin was unrelated to the treatment benefit of vericiguat (versus placebo) on the primary outcome. In addition, analysis of time-updated hemoglobin revealed no association with the treatment effect of vericiguat (versus placebo) on the primary outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Anemia was common at randomization and lower hemoglobin was associated with a greater frequency of clinical events. Although vericiguat modestly lowered hemoglobin by 16 weeks, this effect did not further progress nor was it related to the treatment benefit of vericiguat. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov: Unique identifier: NCT02861534.

Epidemiology of Worsening Heart Failure in a Population-based Cohort from Alberta, Canada: Evaluating Eligibility for Treatment With Vericiguat.

BACKGROUND: Patients with heart failure (HF) and a reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) who experience worsening HF (WHF) events are at increased risk of adverse outcomes and experience significant morbidity and mortality. We herein describe the epidemiology of these patients and identify those potentially eligible for vericiguat therapy in this population-based study. METHODS AND RESULTS: This retrospective cohort study included hospitalized or emergency department patients with a primary diagnosis of HF and a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) of less than 45% diagnosed between April 1, 2009, and March 31, 2019 in Alberta, Canada, with follow-up to March 31, 2020. Inclusion criteria from the VerICiguaT Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection (VICTORIA) trial were applied to explore eligibility for vericiguat. Among 25,629 patients with HF and LVEF data, 9948 (38.8%) had HFrEF, of which 5259 (52.8%) experienced WHF at some point during a median 5.8 years of follow-up, and 38.3% of those met the vericiguat trial eligibility criteria. Compared with patients with HFrEF without WHF, those with WHF were older, with more comorbidities, worse renal function, and similar LVEF status, but greater use of HF medications at baseline. At the time of WHF, 27% of those with HFrEF and WHF were on triple therapy, 50.6% were on dual therapy, and 15.4% were on monotherapy. All-cause mortality and the composite outcome of all-cause mortality or cardiovascular hospitalization at 1-year of follow-up were higher in the HFrEF with WHF cohort compared with HFrEF without WHF (adjusted hazard ratios of 1.92 and 1.51, respectively, both P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately one-half of patients with HFrEF experienced WHF over the long-term follow-up. Most were not on triple therapy, highlighting the underuse of the existing standard-of-care treatments and opportunities for application of newer therapies; more than one-third of patients with HFrEF may be eligible for vericiguat. LAY SUMMARY: Among patients with heart failure (HF), those who experience worsening HF (WHF) are at increased risk of adverse outcomes. A few new therapies, including vericiguat, have emerged recently for patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction. However, the epidemiology, treatment patterns, and outcomes of patients with WHF in large representative populations is unclear. In the current study, approximately one-half of the patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction experienced WHF and 38.3% were potentially eligible for vericiguat therapy. The guideline-recommended therapies were under-utilized among patients with WHF, which highlights the need for initiatives to address this care gap.

Medical Therapy During Hospitalization for Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction: The VICTORIA Registry.

BACKGROUND: For patients hospitalized for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), guidelines recommend optimization of medical therapy prior to discharge. The degree to which changes in medical therapy occur during hospitalizations for HFrEF in North American clinical practice is unclear. METHODS: The VICTORIA registry (Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction) enrolled patients hospitalized for worsening chronic HFrEF across 51 sites in the United States and Canada from February 2018-January 2019. In patients with complete medication data who were not receiving dialysis, use and dose of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI)/angiotensin II receptor blocker (ARB), angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI), beta-blocker, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (MRA), and sodium glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) were assessed at admission and discharge. RESULTS: Of 1695 patients, the median (IQR) age was 69 (59-79) years, and 33% were women. Among eligible patients, 33%, 25% and 55% were not prescribed ACEI/ARB/ARNI, beta-blocker, and MRA at discharge, respectively; 99% were not prescribed SGLT2i. For each medication, > 50% of patients remained on stable subtarget doses or no medication during hospitalization. In-hospital rates of initiation/dose increase were 20% for ACEI/ARB, 4% for ARNI, 20% for beta-blocker, 22% for MRA, and < 1% for SGLT2i; corresponding rates of dose decrease/discontinuation were 11%, 2%, 9%, 5%, and < 1%, respectively. Overall, 17% and 28% of eligible patients were prescribed triple therapy prior to admission and at discharge, respectively. At both admission and discharge, 1% of patients were prescribed triple therapy at target doses. Across classes of medication, multiple factors were independently associated with higher likelihood of in-hospital initiation/dosing increase (eg, Canadian enrollment, white race, admission to intensive care units) and discontinuation/dosing decrease (eg, worse renal function, admission to intensive care units). CONCLUSIONS: In this contemporary North American registry of patients hospitalized for worsening chronic HFrEF, for each recommended medical therapy, the large majority of eligible patients remained on stable subtarget doses or without medication at admission and discharge. Although most patients had no alterations in medical therapy, hospitalization in Canada and multiple patient characteristics were associated with higher likelihood of favorable in-hospital medication changes.

Novel multi-marker proteomics in phenotypically matched patients with ST-segment myocardial infarction: association with clinical outcomes.

Early prediction of significant morbidity or mortality in patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) represents an unmet clinical need. In phenotypically matched population of 139 STEMI patients (72 cases, 67 controls) treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention, we explored associations between a 24-h relative change from baseline in the concentration of 91 novel biomarkers and the composite outcome of death, heart failure, or shock within 90 days. Additionally, we used random forest models to predict the 90-day outcomes. After adjustment for false discovery rate, the 90-day composite was significantly associated with concentration changes in 14 biomarkers involved in various pathophysiologic processes including: myocardial fibrosis/remodeling (collagen alpha-1, cathepsin Z, metalloproteinase inhibitor 4, protein tyrosine phosphatase subunits), inflammation, angiogenesis and signaling (interleukin 1 and 2 subunits, growth differentiation factor 15, galectin 4, trefoil factor 3), bone/mineral metabolism (osteoprotegerin, matrix extracellular phosphoglycoprotein and tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase), thrombosis (tissue factor pathway inhibitor) and cholesterol metabolism (LDL-receptor). Random forest models suggested an independent association when inflammatory markers are included in models predicting the outcomes within 90 days. Substantial heterogeneity is apparent in the early proteomic responses among patients with acutely reperfused STEMI patients who develop death, heart failure or shock within 90 days. These findings suggest the need to consider synergistic multi-biomarker strategies for risk stratification and to inform future development of novel post-myocardial infarction therapies.

Learning whether to subtract beta-blockers: it's about time.

Proposed framework for foundational and provisional secondary prevention therapy over time in low-risk post-MI patients. Foundational therapies should be considered in all patients without contraindications, while provisional therapies should be considered in selected patients with comorbidities or post-infarction complications. The horizontal time axis proposes duration of therapies and timeframes for pharmacotherapeutic re-assessment, and should be responsive to the temporal evolution of post-MI risk and events. ADP, adenosine diphosphate receptor inhibitors; ASA, acetylsalicylic acid; CKD, chronic kidney disease; DM, diabetes mellitus; HTN, hypertension; RAAS, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system; RCT, randomized controlled trials; TG, triglyceride. *Pending guideline recommendations.

Clinical Outcome Predictions for the VerICiguaT Global Study in Subjects With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction (VICTORIA) Trial.

BACKGROUND: The prediction of outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF) may inform prognosis, clinical decisions regarding treatment selection, and new trial planning. The VerICiguaT Global Study in Subjects With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction included high-risk patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction and a recent worsening HF event. The study participants had a high event rate despite the use of contemporary guideline-based therapies. To provide generalizable predictive data for a broad population with a recent worsening HF event, we focused on risk prognostication in the placebo group. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data from 2524 participants randomized to placebo with chronic HF (New York Heart Association functional class II-IV) and an ejection fraction of less than 45% were studied and backward variable selection was used to create Cox proportional hazards models for clinical end points, selecting from 66 candidate predictors. Final model results were produced, accounting for missing data, and nonlinearities. Optimism-corrected c-indices were calculated using 200 bootstrap samples. Over a median follow-up of 10.4 months, the primary outcome of HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death occurred in 972 patients (38.5%). Independent predictors of increased risk for the primary end point included HF characteristics (longer HF duration and worse New York Heart Association functional class), medical history (prior myocardial infarction), and laboratory values (higher N-terminal pro-hormone B-type natriuretic peptide, bilirubin, urate; lower chloride and albumin). Optimism-corrected c-indices were 0.68 for the HF hospitalization/cardiovascular death model, 0.68 for HF hospitalization/all-cause death, 0.72 for cardiovascular death, and 0.73 for all-cause death. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive models developed in a large diverse clinical trial with comprehensive clinical and laboratory baseline data-including novel measures-performed well in high-risk patients with HF who were receiving excellent guideline-based clinical care. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov identifier, NCT02861534.Lay Summary: Patients with heart failure may benefit from tools that help clinicians to better understand a patient's risk for future events like hospitalization. Relatively few risk models have been created after the worsening of heart failure in a contemporary cohort. We provide insights on the risk factors for clinical events from a recent, large, global trial of patients with worsening heart failure to help clinicians better understand and communicate prognosis and select treatment options.

Clinical Outcome Predictions for the VerICiguaT Global Study in Subjects With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction (VICTORIA) Trial: VICTORIA Outcomes Model.

BACKGROUND: Prediction of outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF) may inform prognosis, clinical decisions regarding treatment selection, and new trial planning. The VICTORIA trial included high-risk patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction and a recent worsening HF event. The study participants had an unusually high event rate despite usage of contemporary guideline-based therapies. To provide generalizable predictive data for a broad population with a recent worsening HF event, we focused on risk prognostication in the placebo group. METHODS: Data from 2524 participants randomized to placebo with chronic HF (New York Heart Association class [NYHA] II-IV) and ejection fraction <45% were studied and backward variable selection was used to create Cox proportional hazards models for clinical endpoints, selecting from 66 candidate predictors. Final model results were produced, accounting for missing data, non-linearities, and interactions with treatment. Optimism-corrected c-indices were calculated using 200 bootstrap samples. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 10.4 months, the primary outcome of HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death occurred in 972 (38.5%) patients. Independent predictors of increased risk for the primary endpoint included HF characteristics (longer HF duration and worse NYHA class), medical history (prior myocardial infarction), and laboratory values (higher N-terminal pro-hormone B-type natriuretic peptide, bilirubin, urate; lower chloride and albumin). Optimism-corrected c-indices were 0.68 for the HF hospitalization/cardiovascular death model, 0.68 for HF hospitalization/all-cause death, 0.72 for cardiovascular death, and 0.73 for all-cause death. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive models developed in a large diverse clinical trial with comprehensive clinical and laboratory baseline data-including novel measures-performed well in high-risk HF patients who were receiving excellent guideline-based clinical care. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov identifier, NCT02861534. LAY SUMMARY: Patients with heart failure may benefit from tools that help clinicians better understand patient's risk for future events like hospitalization. Relatively few risk models have been created after worsening of heart failure in a contemporary cohort. We provide insights on risk factors for clinical events from a recent large, global trial of patients with worsening heart failure to help clinicians better understand and communicate prognosis and select treatment options.

Interleukin-6 and Outcomes in Acute Heart Failure: An ASCEND-HF Substudy.

BACKGROUND: The inflammatory cytokine IL-6 has been previously implicated in the pathophysiology of acute decompensated heart failure (HF). Prior observations in acute HF patients have suggested that IL-6 may be associated with outcomes and modulated by nesiritide. We aimed to evaluate the associations between serial IL-6 measurements, mortality and rehospitalization in acute HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed the associations between IL-6 in acute HF, readmission, and mortality (30 and 180 days) using a cohort of 883 hospitalized patients from the ASCEND-HF trial (nesiritide vs placebo). Plasma IL-6 was measured at randomization (baseline), 48-72 hours, and 30 days. The median IL-6 was highest at baseline (14.1 pg/mL) and decreased at subsequent time points (7.6 pg/mL at 30 days). In a univariable Cox regression analysis, the baseline IL-6 was associated with 30- and 180-day mortality (hazard ratio per log 1.74, 95% confidence interval 1.09-2.78, P = .021; hazard ratio 3.23, confidence interval 1.18-8.86, P = .022, respectively). However, there was no association after multivariable adjustment. IL-6 at 48-72 hours was found to be independently associated with 30-day mortality (hazard ratio 8.2, confidence interval 1.2-57.5, P= .03), but not 180-day mortality in multivariable analysis that included the ASCEND-HF risk model and amino terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide as covariates. In comparison with placebo, nesiritide therapy was not associated with differences in serial IL-6 levels. CONCLUSIONS: Although elevated IL-6 levels were associated with higher all-cause mortality in acute HF, no independent association with this outcome was identified at baseline or 30-day measurements. In contrast with prior reports, we did not observe any impact of nesiritide over placebo on serial IL-6 levels.

The Second Strategic Reperfusion Early After Myocardial Infarction (STREAM-2) study optimizing pharmacoinvasive reperfusion strategy in older ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients.

BACKGROUND: The STREAM study demonstrated that a pharmaco-invasive strategy was at least as effective as primary PCI (pPCI) in patients presenting early with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The current trial is a response to the finding that reduced intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in patients ≥75 years occurred after halving the dose of tenecteplase. Additionally, a subsequent analysis of full dose tenecteplase or alteplase in the Assessment of the Safety and Efficacy of a New Thrombolytic (ASSENT) trials demonstrated a steep increase in bleeding events beginning around the age of 60 years. METHODS: STREAM-2 will compare the efficacy and safety of a novel pharmaco-invasive strategy as compared to routine pPCI in STEMI patients ≥60 years presenting within 3 hours from symptom onset. In the pharmaco-invasive arm patients will receive half-dose tenecteplase, as soon as possible before transport to a PCI center. In the pPCI arm, patients will be treated according to optimal standard of care defined by local practice. The key criteria for efficacy will be the number of patients achieving ≥50% ST-segment resolution before and after PCI in lead with maximal ST elevation at baseline and the clinical endpoints of death, congestive heart failure, shock or re-infarction, rescue PCI and aborted myocardial infarction, both singularly and as a composite at 30 days. Key safety criteria are total stroke, ICH and major non-intracranial bleeds. Approximately 600 patients will be randomized (400 to pharmaco-invasive treatment and 200 to pPCI). An interim analysis is planned after 300 patients are enrolled to consider adapting the trial to include a larger sample size aimed at undertaking a formal confirmatory trial. DISCUSSION: The study will provide new insights aimed at establishing an effective and safer pharmaco-invasive treatment for the growing population of older STEMI patients who cannot undergo timely pPCI.

Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol treatment and outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and established cardiovascular disease: Insights from TECOS.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients are at increased risk for cardiovascular (CV) events. Most guidelines recommend treating low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels to ≤70 mg/dL (1.8 mM) for patients with T2D and established atherosclerotic CV disease, and some a more aggressive target of ≤55 mg/dL (1.4 mM). Our objective was to assess the degree to which these LDL-C targets are achieved in routine practice. METHODS: Using data from TECOS, an international pragmatic CV outcomes trial of sitagliptin vs placebo, we assessed lipid-lowering treatment among patients with T2D and CV disease, baseline lipid values, and the association between baseline LDL-C and 5-year risk for major adverse cardiac events (MACE; ie, CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke). RESULTS: Overall, 11,066 of 14,671 TECOS participants (75.4%) had LDL-C measured at baseline. Median age was 65 years, 72% were male, and median T2D duration was 10 years. Overall, 82.5% of patients were on statins; only 5.8% were on ezetimibe. At baseline, 14.3% had LDL-C ≤55 mg/dL, 18.4% between 55.1 and 70 mg/dL, 35% between 70.1 and 100 mg/dL, and 32.3% >100 mg/dL. Each 10 mg/dL higher LDL-C value was associated with a higher risk of MACE (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.03-1.07) or CV death (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.04-1.09). CONCLUSIONS: Although most high-risk patients with T2D and CV disease were on lipid-lowering therapy, only 1:3 had LDL-C <70 mg/dL and 1:6 had LDL-C <55 mg/dL. Each 10 mg/dL higher LDL-C value was associated with a 5% and 6% higher 5-year incidence of MACE and CV death, respectively. (TECOS, NCT00790205).