Imaging chronic active lesions in multiple sclerosis: a consensus statement.

Chronic active lesions (CAL) are an important manifestation of chronic inflammation in multiple sclerosis (MS) and have implications for non-relapsing biological progression. In recent years, the discovery of innovative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and PET derived biomarkers has made it possible to detect CAL, and to some extent quantify them, in the brain of persons with MS, in vivo. Paramagnetic rim lesions on susceptibility-sensitive MRI sequences, MRI-defined slowly expanding lesions on T1-weighted (T1-w) and T2-w scans, and 18-kDa translocator protein-positive lesions on PET are promising candidate biomarkers of CAL. While partially overlapping, these biomarkers do not have equivalent sensitivity and specificity to histopathological CAL. Standardization in the use of available imaging measures for CAL identification, quantification, and monitoring is lacking. To fast-forward clinical translation of CAL, the North American Imaging in Multiple Sclerosis Cooperative developed a Consensus Statement, which provides guidance for the radiological definition and measurement of CAL. The proposed manuscript presents this Consensus Statement, summarizes the multistep process leading to it, and identifies the remaining major gaps in knowledge.

Dimethyl Fumarate Delays Multiple Sclerosis in Radiologically Isolated Syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: The radiologically isolated syndrome (RIS) represents the earliest detectable pre-clinical phase of multiple sclerosis (MS). This study evaluated the impact of therapeutic intervention in preventing first symptom manifestation at this stage in the disease spectrum. METHODS: We conducted a multi-center, randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled study involving people with RIS. Individuals without clinical symptoms typical of MS but with incidental brain MRI anomalies consistent with central nervous system (CNS) demyelination were included. Within 12 MS centers in the United States, participants were randomly assigned 1:1 to oral dimethyl fumarate (DMF) 240 mg twice daily or placebo. The primary endpoint was the time to onset of clinical symptoms attributable to a CNS demyelinating event within a follow-up period of 96 weeks. An intention-to-treat analysis was applied to all participating individuals in the primary and safety investigations. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02739542 (ARISE). RESULTS: Participants from 12 centers were recruited from March 9, 2016, to October 31, 2019, with 44 people randomized to dimethyl fumarate and 43 to placebo. Following DMF treatment, the risk of a first clinical demyelinating event during the 96-week study period was highly reduced in the unadjusted Cox proportional-hazards regression model (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.05-0.63, p = 0.007). More moderate adverse reactions were present in the DMF (34 [32%]) than placebo groups (19 [21%]) but severe events were similar (DMF, 3 [5%]; placebo, 4 [9%]). INTERPRETATION: This is the first randomized clinical trial demonstrating the benefit of a disease-modifying therapy in preventing a first acute clinical event in people with RIS. ANN NEUROL 2023;93:604-614.

Choroid plexus volume differentiates MS from its mimics.

This study aimed to determine whether choroid plexus volume (CPV) could differentiate multiple sclerosis (MS) from its mimics. A secondary analysis of two previously enrolled studies, 50 participants with MS and 64 with alternative diagnoses were included. CPV was automatically segmented from 3T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), followed by manual review to remove misclassified tissue. Mean normalized choroid plexus volume (nCPV) to intracranial volume demonstrated relatively high specificity for MS participants in each cohort (0.80 and 0.76) with an area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve of 0.71 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.55-0.87) and 0.65 (95% CI = 0.52-0.77). In this preliminary study, nCPV differentiated MS from its mimics.

A multicenter pilot study evaluating simplified central vein assessment for the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The central vein sign (CVS) is a proposed magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) biomarker for multiple sclerosis (MS); the optimal method for abbreviated CVS scoring is not yet established. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of a simplified approach to CVS assessment in a multicenter study of patients being evaluated for suspected MS. METHODS: Adults referred for possible MS to 10 sites were recruited. A post-Gd 3D T2*-weighted MRI sequence (FLAIR*) was obtained in each subject. Trained raters at each site identified up to six CVS-positive lesions per FLAIR* scan. Diagnostic performance of CVS was evaluated for a diagnosis of MS which had been confirmed using the 2017 McDonald criteria at thresholds including three positive lesions (Select-3*) and six positive lesions (Select-6*). Inter-rater reliability assessments were performed. RESULTS: Overall, 78 participants were analyzed; 37 (47%) were diagnosed with MS, and 41 (53%) were not. The mean age of participants was 45 (range: 19-64) years, and most were female (n = 55, 71%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for the simplified counting method was 0.83 (95% CI: 0.73-0.93). Select-3* and Select-6* had sensitivity of 81% and 65% and specificity of 68% and 98%, respectively. Inter-rater agreement was 78% for Select-3* and 83% for Select-6*. CONCLUSION: A simplified method for CVS assessment in patients referred for suspected MS demonstrated good diagnostic performance and inter-rater agreement.

The radiologically isolated syndrome: revised diagnostic criteria.

The radiologically isolated syndrome (RIS) was defined in 2009 as the presence of asymptomatic, incidentally identified demyelinating-appearing white matter lesions in the CNS within individuals lacking symptoms typical of multiple sclerosis (MS). The RIS criteria have been validated and predict the transition to symptomatic MS reliably. The performance of RIS criteria that require fewer MRI lesions is unknown. 2009-RIS subjects, by definition, fulfil three to four of four criteria for 2005 dissemination in space (DIS) and subjects fulfilling only one or two lesions in at least one 2017 DIS location were identified within 37 prospective databases. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used to identify predictors of a first clinical event. Performances of different groups were calculated. Seven hundred and forty-seven subjects (72.2% female, mean age 37.7 ± 12.3 years at the index MRI) were included. The mean clinical follow-up time was 46.8 ± 45.4 months. All subjects had focal T2 hyperintensities suggestive of inflammatory demyelination on MRI; 251 (33.6%) fulfilled one or two 2017 DIS criteria (designated as Groups 1 and 2, respectively), and 496 (66.4%) fulfilled three or four 2005 DIS criteria representing 2009-RIS subjects. Group 1 and 2 subjects were younger than the 2009-RIS group and were more likely to develop new T2 lesions over time (P < 0.001). Groups 1 and 2 were similar regarding survival distribution and risk factors for transition to MS. At 5 years, the cumulative probability for a clinical event was 29.0% for Groups 1 and 2 compared to 38.7% for 2009-RIS (P = 0.0241). The presence of spinal cord lesions on the index scan and CSF-restricted oligoclonal bands in Groups 1-2 increased the risk of symptomatic MS evolution at 5 years to 38%, comparable to the risk of development in the 2009-RIS group. The presence of new T2 or gadolinium-enhancing lesions on follow-up scans independently increased the risk of presenting with a clinical event (P < 0.001). The 2009-RIS subjects or Groups 1 and 2 with at least two of the risk factors for a clinical event demonstrated better sensitivity (86.0%), negative predictive value (73.1%), accuracy (59.8%) and area under the curve (60.7%) compared to other criteria studied. This large prospective cohort brings Class I evidence that subjects with fewer lesions than required in the 2009 RIS criteria evolve directly to a first clinical event at a similar rate when additional risk factors are present. Our results provide a rationale for revisions to existing RIS diagnostic criteria.

Effect of GBCA Use on Detection and Diagnostic Performance of the Central Vein Sign: Evaluation Using a 3-T FLAIR* Sequence in Patients With Suspected Multiple Sclerosis.

BACKGROUND. The central vein sign (CVS) is a proposed MRI biomarker of multiple sclerosis (MS). The impact of gadolinium-based contrast agent (GBCA) administration on CVS evaluation remains poorly investigated. OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of GBCA use on CVS detection and on the diagnostic performance of the CVS for MS using a 3-T FLAIR* sequence. METHODS. This study was a secondary analysis of data from the pilot study for the prospective multicenter Central Vein Sign: A Diagnostic Biomarker in Multiple Sclerosis (CAVS-MS), which recruited adults with suspected MS from April 2018 to February 2020. Participants underwent 3-T brain MRI including FLAIR and precontrast and post-contrast echo-planar imaging T2*-weighted acquisitions. Postprocessing was used to generate combined FLAIR and T2*-weighted images (hereafter, FLAIR*). MS diagnoses were established using the 2017 McDonald criteria. Thirty participants (23 women, seven men; mean age, 45 years) were randomly selected from the CAVS-MS pilot study cohort. White matter lesions (WMLs) were marked using FLAIR* images. A single observer, blinded to clinical data and GBCA use, reviewed marked WMLs on FLAIR* images for the presence of the CVS. RESULTS. Thirteen of 30 participants had MS. Across participants, on precontrast FLAIR* imaging, 218 CVS-positive and 517 CVS-negative WMLs were identified; on post-contrast FLAIR* imaging, 269 CVS-positive and 459 CVS-negative WMLs were identified. The fraction of WMLs that were CVS-positive on precontrast and postcontrast images was 48% and 58% in participants with MS and 7% and 10% in participants without MS, respectively. The median patient-level CVS-positivity rate on precontrast and postcontrast images was 43% and 67% for participants with MS and 4% and 8% for participants without MS, respectively. In a binomial model adjusting for MS diagnoses, GBCA use was associated with an increased likelihood of at least one CVS-positive WML (odds ratio, 1.6; p < .001). At a 40% CVS-positivity threshold, the sensitivity of the CVS for MS increased from 62% on precontrast images to 92% on postcontrast images (p = .046). Specificity was not significantly different between precontrast (88%) and postcontrast (82%) images (p = .32). CONCLUSION. GBCA use increased CVS detection on FLAIR* images, thereby increasing the sensitivity of the CVS for MS diagnoses. CLINICAL IMPACT. The postcontrast FLAIR* sequence should be considered for CVS evaluation in future investigational trials and clinical practice.

Deep grey matter injury in multiple sclerosis: a NAIMS consensus statement.

Although multiple sclerosis has traditionally been considered a white matter disease, extensive research documents the presence and importance of grey matter injury including cortical and deep regions. The deep grey matter exhibits a broad range of pathology and is uniquely suited to study the mechanisms and clinical relevance of tissue injury in multiple sclerosis using magnetic resonance techniques. Deep grey matter injury has been associated with clinical and cognitive disability. Recently, MRI characterization of deep grey matter properties, such as thalamic volume, have been tested as potential clinical trial end points associated with neurodegenerative aspects of multiple sclerosis. Given this emerging area of interest and its potential clinical trial relevance, the North American Imaging in Multiple Sclerosis (NAIMS) Cooperative held a workshop and reached consensus on imaging topics related to deep grey matter. Herein, we review current knowledge regarding deep grey matter injury in multiple sclerosis from an imaging perspective, including insights from histopathology, image acquisition and post-processing for deep grey matter. We discuss the clinical relevance of deep grey matter injury and specific regions of interest within the deep grey matter. We highlight unanswered questions and propose future directions, with the aim of focusing research priorities towards better methods, analysis, and interpretation of results.

Cerebellar volume loss in radiologically isolated syndrome.

Radiologically isolated syndrome (RIS), in which asymptomatic demyelinating-appearing lesions are detected incidentally on MRI, can be a pre-clinical form of multiple sclerosis (MS). In this study, we measured cerebellar volumes on 3D T1-weighted 3T MR images in 21 individuals with RIS and 38 age- and sex-matched healthy controls (HC). Normalized cerebellar white matter volume and the anterior cerebellar gray matter volume were significantly decreased in RIS compared to HC (p = 0.003 and p = 0.005, respectively). Our findings support reports of regional brain atrophy in RIS prior to the development of a seminal attack related to inflammatory demyelination.

Thalamic atrophy in multiple sclerosis: A magnetic resonance imaging marker of neurodegeneration throughout disease.

OBJECTIVE: Thalamic volume is a candidate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based marker associated with neurodegeneration to hasten development of neuroprotective treatments. Our objective is to describe the longitudinal evolution of thalamic atrophy in MS and normal aging, and to estimate sample sizes for study design. METHODS: Six hundred one subjects (2,632 MRI scans) were analyzed. Five hundred twenty subjects with relapse-onset MS (clinically isolated syndrome, n = 90; relapsing-remitting MS, n = 392; secondary progressive MS, n = 38) underwent annual standardized 3T MRI scans for an average of 4.1 years, including a 1mm3 3-dimensional T1-weighted sequence (3DT1; 2,485 MRI scans). Eighty-one healthy controls (HC) were scanned longitudinally on the same scanner using the same protocol (147 MRI scans). 3DT1s were processed using FreeSurfer's longitudinal pipeline after lesion inpainting. Rates of normalized thalamic volume loss in MS and HC were compared in linear mixed effects models. Simulation-based sample size calculations were performed incorporating the rate of atrophy in HC. RESULTS: Thalamic volume declined significantly faster in MS subjects compared to HC, with an estimated decline of -0.71% per year (95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.77% to -0.64%) in MS subjects and -0.28% per year (95% CI = -0.58% to 0.02%) in HC (p for difference = 0.007). The rate of decline was consistent throughout the MS disease duration and across MS clinical subtypes. Eighty or 100 subjects per arm (α = 0.1 or 0.05, respectively) would be needed to detect the maximal effect size with 80% power in a 24-month study. INTERPRETATION: Thalamic atrophy occurs early and consistently throughout MS. Preliminary sample size calculations appear feasible, adding to its appeal as an MRI marker associated with neurodegeneration. Ann Neurol 2018;83:223-234.

Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis Evolving From Radiologically Isolated Syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this work was to evaluate the preprogressive phase in subjects with radiologically isolated syndrome (RIS) who evolve to primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS). METHODS: A multicenter RIS cohort was previously established. Demographic, clinical, and radiological characteristics of subjects with RIS that evolved directly to PPMS were compared to those that developed a relapsing disease course from onset (clinically isolated syndrome [CIS] or relapsing-remitting MS) and were also compared to two other population- and clinic-based PPMS cohorts. RESULTS: Of the 453 subjects with RIS, 128 evolved to symptomatic MS during the follow-up (113 developed a first acute clinical event consistent with CIS/MS, 15 evolved to PPMS). PPMS prevalence (11.7%) and onset age (mean ± standard deviation; 49.1 ± 12.1) in the RIS group were comparable to other PPMS populations (p > 0.05). Median time to PPMS was 3.5 years (range, 1.6-5.4). RIS evolved to PPMS more commonly in men (p = 0.005) and at an older age (p < 0.001) when compared to CIS/MS, independent of follow-up duration. Subjects who evolved to PPMS had more spinal cord lesions (100%) before symptomatic evolution than those that developed CIS/MS (64%) and those that remained asymptomatic (23%) within the follow-up period (P = 0.005). Other MRI characteristics in the preprogressive phase of PPMS were indistinguishable from CIS/MS. INTERPRETATION: Subjects with RIS evolve to PPMS at the same frequency as expected from general MS populations in an age-dependent manner. Besides age, unequivocal presence of spinal cord lesions and being male predicted evolution to PPMS. Our findings further suggest that RIS is biologically part of the MS spectrum.

Whole-brain atrophy: ready for implementation into clinical decision-making in multiple sclerosis?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The article provides an overview of the importance of whole-brain atrophy in multiple sclerosis (MS) and proposes steps that would be necessary prior to incorporating whole-brain volume measurements into routine clinical practice. RECENT FINDINGS: Whole-brain atrophy is clinically relevant, present early in the disease, and measureable in a reproducible manner using MRI. Several of the currently available approved disease-modifying therapies can slow the rate of whole-brain atrophy at the group level. As such, clinicians may want to use whole-brain volume measurements for clinical decision-making. SUMMARY: Despite its relevance and face validity, several steps must be taken before whole-brain volume measurements are ready to be incorporated into clinical practice, including the adoption of a standardized MRI protocol for MS, the establishment of a gold-standard image postprocessing software to measure whole-brain volume, and the development of specific statistical methods to translate whole-brain volume measurements into clinically relevant metrics at the individual level. As neurodegeneration becomes the focus of MS research worldwide and the likely target of the next generation of disease-modifying therapies, MRI metrics associated with neurodegeneration will be critically important to monitor disease progression and treatment response at the group and individual levels.

In vivo evidence of glutamate toxicity in multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: There is increasing evidence that altered glutamate (Glu) homeostasis is involved in the pathophysiology of multiple sclerosis (MS). The aim of this study was to evaluate the in vivo effects of excess brain Glu on neuroaxonal integrity measured by N-acetylaspartate (NAA), brain volume, and clinical outcomes in a large, prospectively followed cohort of MS subjects. METHODS: We used multivoxel spectroscopy at 3T to longitudinally estimate Glu and NAA concentrations from large areas of normal-appearing white and gray matter (NAWM and GM) in MS patients (n = 343) with a mean follow-up time of 5 years. Using linear mixed-effects models, Glu was examined as a predictor of NAA decline, annualized percentage brain volume change, and evolution of clinical outcomes (Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite [MSFC], Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test-3 [PASAT], and Expanded Disability Status Scale). Glu/NAA ratio was tested as a predictor of brain volume loss and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Baseline Glu[NAWM] was predictive of accelerated longitudinal decline in NAA[GM] (-0.06mM change in NAA[GM] /yr for each unit increase in Glu; p = 0.004). The sustained elevation of Glu[NAWM] was predictive of a loss of 0.28mM/yr in NAA[NAWM] (p < 0.001) and 0.15mM/yr in NAA[GM] (p = 0.056). Each 10% increase in Glu/NAA[NAWM] was associated with a loss of 0.33% brain volume/yr (p = 0.001), 0.009 standard deviations/yr in MSFC z-score (p < 0.001), and 0.17 points/yr on the PASAT (p < 0.001). INTERPRETATION: These results indicate that higher Glu concentrations increase the rate of NAA decline, and higher Glu/NAA[NAWM] ratio increases the rate of decline of brain volume, MSFC, and PASAT. This provides evidence of a relationship between brain Glu and markers of disease progression in MS.

A comparison of continuous video-EEG monitoring and 30-minute EEG in an ICU.

AIM: To determine whether there is added benefit in detecting electrographic abnormalities from 16-24 hours of continuous video-EEG in adult medical/surgical ICU patients, compared to a 30-minute EEG. METHODS: This was a prospectively enroled non-randomized study of 130 consecutive ICU patients for whom EEG was requested. For 117 patients, a 30-minute EEG was requested for altered mental state and/or suspected seizures; 83 patients continued with continuous video-EEG for 16-24 hours and 34 patients had only the 30-minute EEG. For 13 patients with prior seizures, continuous video-EEG was requested and was carried out for 16-24 hours. We gathered EEG data prospectively, and reviewed the medical records retrospectively to assess the impact of continuous video-EEG. RESULTS: A total of 83 continuous video-EEG recordings were performed for 16-24 hours beyond 30 minutes of routine EEG. All were slow, and 34% showed epileptiform findings in the first 30 minutes, including 2% with seizures. Over 16-24 hours, 14% developed new or additional epileptiform abnormalities, including 6% with seizures. In 8%, treatment was changed based on continuous video-EEG. Among the 34 EEGs limited to 30 minutes, almost all were slow and 18% showed epileptiform activity, including 3% with seizures. Among the 13 patients with known seizures, continuous video-EEG was slow in all and 69% had epileptiform abnormalities in the first 30 minutes, including 31% with seizures. An additional 8% developed epileptiform abnormalities over 16-24 hours. In 46%, treatment was changed based on continuous video-EEG. CONCLUSION: This study indicates that if continuous video-EEG is not available, a 30-minute EEG in the ICU has a substantial diagnostic yield and will lead to the detection of the majority of epileptiform abnormalities. In a small percentage of patients, continuous video-EEG will lead to the detection of additional epileptiform abnormalities. In a sub-population, with a history of seizures prior to the initiation of EEG recording, the benefits of continuous video-EEG in monitoring seizure activity and influencing treatment may be greater.

Dimethyl fumarate preserves brainstem and cervical spinal cord integrity in radiologically isolated syndrome.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The first randomized placebo-controlled therapeutic trial in radiologically isolated syndrome (RIS), ARISE, demonstrated that treatment with dimethyl fumarate (DMF) delayed the onset of a first clinical event related to CNS demyelination and was associated with a significant reduction in new and/or newly enlarging T2-weighted hyperintense lesions. The purpose of this study was to explore the effect of DMF on volumetric measures, including whole brain, thalamic, and subcortical gray matter volumes, brainstem and upper cervical spine three-dimensional (3D) volumes, and brainstem and upper cervical spine surface characteristics. METHODS: Standardized 3T MRIs including 3D isotropic T1-weighted gradient echo images were acquired at baseline and end-of-study according to the ARISE study protocol. The acquired data were analyzed using Structural Image Evaluation Using Normalization of Atrophy (SIENA), FreeSurfer v7.3, and an in-house pipeline for 3D conformational metrics. Multivariate mixed models for repeated measures were used to analyze rates of change in whole brain, thalamic, subcortical gray matter, as well as change in the 3D surface curvature of the dorsal pons and dorsal medulla and 3D volume change at the medulla-upper cervical spinal cord. RESULTS: The study population consisted of 64 RIS subjects (DMF:30, placebo:34). No significant difference was seen in whole brain, thalamic, or subcortical gray matter volumes in treated vs. untreated RIS patients. A significant difference was observed in dorsal pons curvature with the DMF group having a lower least squares mean change of - 4.46 (standard estimate (SE): 3.77) when compared to placebo [6.94 (3.71)] (p = 0.036). In individuals that experienced a first clinical event, a greater reduction in medulla-upper cervical spinal cord volume (p = 0.044) and a decrease in surface curvature was observed at the dorsal medulla (p = 0.009) but not at the dorsal pons (p = 0.443). CONCLUSIONS: The benefit of disease-modifying therapy in RIS may extend to CNS structures impacted by neurodegeneration that is below the resolution of conventional volumetric measures.

The diagnostic workup of children with the radiologically isolated syndrome differs by age and by sex.

BACKGROUND: Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and spinal MRIs are often obtained in children with the radiologically isolated syndrome (RIS) for diagnosis and prognosis. Factors affecting the frequency and timing of these tests are unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether age or sex were associated with (1) having CSF or spinal MRI obtained or (2) the timing of these tests. METHODS: We analyzed children (≤ 18 y) with RIS enrolled in an international longitudinal study. Index scans met 2010/2017 multiple sclerosis (MS) MRI criteria for dissemination in space (DIS). We used Fisher's exact test and multivariable logistic regression (covariates = age, sex, MRI date, MRI indication, 2005 MRI DIS criteria met, and race). RESULTS: We included 103 children with RIS (67% girls, median age = 14.9 y). Children ≥ 12 y were more likely than children < 12 y to have CSF obtained (58% vs. 21%, adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 4.9, p = 0.03). Pre-2017, girls were more likely than boys to have CSF obtained (n = 70, 79% vs. 52%, AOR = 4.6, p = 0.01), but not more recently (n = 30, 75% vs. 80%, AOR = 0.2, p = 0.1; p = 0.004 for interaction). Spinal MRIs were obtained sooner in children ≥ 12 y (median 11d vs. 159d, p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Younger children with RIS may be at continued risk for misdiagnosis and misclassification of MS risk. Consensus guidelines are needed.

Toward Precision Medicine Using a "Digital Twin" Approach: Modeling the Onset of Disease-Specific Brain Atrophy in Individuals with Multiple Sclerosis.

Digital Twin (DT) is a novel concept that may bring a paradigm shift for precision medicine. In this study we demonstrate a DT application for estimating the age of onset of disease-specific brain atrophy in individuals with multiple sclerosis (MS) using brain MRI. We first augmented longitudinal data from a well-fitted spline model derived from a large cross-sectional normal aging data. Then we compared different mixed spline models through both simulated and real-life data and identified the mixed spline model with the best fit. Using the appropriate covariate structure selected from 52 different candidate structures, we augmented the thalamic atrophy trajectory over the lifespan for each individual MS patient and a corresponding hypothetical twin with normal aging. Theoretically, the age at which the brain atrophy trajectory of an MS patient deviates from the trajectory of their hypothetical healthy twin can be considered as the onset of progressive brain tissue loss. With a 10-fold cross validation procedure through 1000 bootstrapping samples, we found the onset age of progressive brain tissue loss was, on average, 5-6 years prior to clinical symptom onset. Our novel approach also discovered two clear patterns of patient clusters: earlier onset vs. simultaneous onset of brain atrophy.

Toward precision medicine using a "digital twin" approach: modeling the onset of disease-specific brain atrophy in individuals with multiple sclerosis.

Digital Twin (DT) is a novel concept that may bring a paradigm shift for precision medicine. In this study we demonstrate a DT application for estimating the age of onset of disease-specific brain atrophy in individuals with multiple sclerosis (MS) using brain MRI. We first augmented longitudinal data from a well-fitted spline model derived from a large cross-sectional normal aging data. Then we compared different mixed spline models through both simulated and real-life data and identified the mixed spline model with the best fit. Using the appropriate covariate structure selected from 52 different candidate structures, we augmented the thalamic atrophy trajectory over the lifespan for each individual MS patient and a corresponding hypothetical twin with normal aging. Theoretically, the age at which the brain atrophy trajectory of an MS patient deviates from the trajectory of their hypothetical healthy twin can be considered as the onset of progressive brain tissue loss. With a tenfold cross validation procedure through 1000 bootstrapping samples, we found the onset age of progressive brain tissue loss was, on average, 5-6 years prior to clinical symptom onset. Our novel approach also discovered two clear patterns of patient clusters: earlier onset versus simultaneous onset of brain atrophy.

Radiologically isolated syndrome.

Individuals can be deemed to have radiologically isolated syndrome (RIS) if they have incidental demyelinating-appearing lesions in their brain or spinal cord that are highly suggestive of multiple sclerosis but their clinical history does not include symptoms consistent with multiple sclerosis. Data from international longitudinal cohorts indicate that around half of people with RIS will develop relapsing or progressive symptoms of multiple sclerosis within 10 years, suggesting that in some individuals, RIS is a presymptomatic stage of multiple sclerosis. Risk factors for progression from RIS to clinical multiple sclerosis include younger age (ie, <35 years), male sex, CSF-restricted oligoclonal bands, spinal cord or infratentorial lesions, and gadolinium-enhancing lesions. Other imaging, biological, genetic, and digital biomarkers that might be of value in identifying individuals who are at the highest risk of developing multiple sclerosis need further investigation. Two 2-year randomised clinical trials showed the efficacy of approved multiple sclerosis immunomodulatory medications in preventing the clinical conversion to multiple sclerosis in some individuals with RIS. If substantiated in longer-term studies, these data have the potential to transform our approach to care for the people with RIS who are at the greatest risk of diagnosis with multiple sclerosis.