Resurgence of wheat stem rust infections in western Europe: causes and how to curtail them.

Ten years ago, (black) stem rust - the most damaging of wheat (Triticum aestivum) rusts - re-emerged in western Europe. Disease incidences have since increased in scale and frequency. Here, we investigated the likely underlying causes and used those to propose urgently needed mitigating actions. We report that the first large-scale UK outbreak of the wheat stem rust fungus, Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici (Pgt), in 2022 may have been caused by timely arrival of airborne urediniospores from southwest Europe. The drive towards later-maturing wheat varieties in the UK may be exacerbating Pgt incidences, which could have disastrous consequences. Indeed, infection assays showed that two UK Pgt isolates from 2022 could infect over 96% of current UK wheat varieties. We determined that the temperature response data in current disease risk simulation models are outdated. Analysis of germination rates for three current UK Pgt isolates showed substantial variation in temperature response functions, suggesting that the accuracy of disease risk simulations would be substantially enhanced by incorporating data from prevailing Pgt isolates. As Pgt incidences continue to accelerate in western Europe, we advocate for urgent action to curtail Pgt losses and help safeguard future wheat production across the region.

Epidemics and the future of coffee production.

In this perspective, we draw on recent scientific research on the coffee leaf rust (CLR) epidemic that severely impacted several countries across Latin America and the Caribbean over the last decade, to explore how the socioeconomic impacts from COVID-19 could lead to the reemergence of another rust epidemic. We describe how past CLR outbreaks have been linked to reduced crop care and investment in coffee farms, as evidenced in the years following the 2008 global financial crisis. We discuss relationships between CLR incidence, farmer-scale agricultural practices, and economic signals transferred through global and local effects. We contextualize how current COVID-19 impacts on labor, unemployment, stay-at-home orders, and international border policies could affect farmer investments in coffee plants and in turn create conditions favorable for future shocks. We conclude by arguing that COVID-19's socioeconomic disruptions are likely to drive the coffee industry into another severe production crisis. While this argument illustrates the vulnerabilities that come from a globalized coffee system, it also highlights the necessity of ensuring the well-being of all. By increasing investments in coffee institutions and paying smallholders more, we can create a fairer and healthier system that is more resilient to future social-ecological shocks.

The persistent threat of emerging plant disease pandemics to global food security.

Plant disease outbreaks are increasing and threaten food security for the vulnerable in many areas of the world. Now a global human pandemic is threatening the health of millions on our planet. A stable, nutritious food supply will be needed to lift people out of poverty and improve health outcomes. Plant diseases, both endemic and recently emerging, are spreading and exacerbated by climate change, transmission with global food trade networks, pathogen spillover, and evolution of new pathogen lineages. In order to tackle these grand challenges, a new set of tools that include disease surveillance and improved detection technologies including pathogen sensors and predictive modeling and data analytics are needed to prevent future outbreaks. Herein, we describe an integrated research agenda that could help mitigate future plant disease pandemics.

Genome Sequence Data Reveal at Least Two Distinct Incursions of the Tropical Race 4 Variant of Fusarium Wilt into South America.

The global banana industry is threatened by one of the most devastating diseases: Fusarium wilt of banana. Fusarium wilt of banana is caused by the soilborne fungus Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense (Foc), which almost annihilated the banana production in the late 1950s. A new strain of Foc, known as tropical race 4 (TR4), attacks a wide range of banana varieties, including Cavendish clones, which are the source of 99% of banana exports. In 2019, Foc TR4 was reported in Colombia, and more recently (2021) in Peru. In this study, we sequenced three fungal isolates identified as Foc TR4 from La Guajira (Colombia) and compared them against 19 whole-genome sequences of Foc TR4 publicly available, including four genome sequences recently released from Peru. To understand the genetic relatedness of the Colombian Foc TR4 isolates and those from Peru, we conducted a phylogenetic analysis based on a genome-wide set of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Additionally, we compared the genomes of the 22 available Foc TR4 isolates, looking for the presence-absence of gene polymorphisms and genomic regions. Our results reveal that (i) the Colombian and Peruvian isolates are genetically distant, which could be better explained by independent incursions of the pathogen to the continent, and (ii) there is a high correspondence between the genetic relatedness and geographic origin of Foc TR4. The profile of present/absent genes and the distribution of missing genomic regions showed a high correspondence to the clades recovered in the phylogenetic analysis, supporting the results obtained by SNP-based phylogeny.

Taxonomic Revision of the Banana Fusarium Wilt TR4 Pathogen Is Premature.

Taxonomic revisions for pathogens of crops should be based on robust underpinning evidence. Recently, a substantial revision was proposed for the taxonomy of the causative agent of Fusarium wilt on banana. We reanalyzed the data on which this revision was based and discovered that the data do not robustly support the proposals. Several apparent discrepancies and errors in the published phylogenies cast further doubt on the conclusions drawn from them. Although we do not assert that the authors' conclusions are incorrect, we posit that the taxonomic changes are premature, given the data currently in the public domain.[Formula: see text] Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY 4.0 International license.

The problem of scale in predicting biological responses to climate.

Many analyses of biological responses to climate rely on gridded climate data derived from weather stations, which differ from the conditions experienced by organisms in at least two respects. First, the microclimate recorded by a weather station is often quite different to that near the ground surface, where many organisms live. Second, the temporal and spatial resolutions of gridded climate datasets derived from weather stations are often too coarse to capture the conditions experienced by organisms. Temporally and spatially coarse data have clear benefits in terms of reduced model size and complexity, but here we argue that coarse-grained data introduce errors that, in biological studies, are too often ignored. However, in contrast to common perception, these errors are not necessarily caused directly by a spatial mismatch between the size of organisms and the scale at which climate data are collected. Rather, errors and biases are primarily due to (a) systematic discrepancies between the climate used in analysis and that experienced by organisms under study; and (b) the non-linearity of most biological responses in combination with differences in climate variance between locations and time periods for which models are fitted and those for which projections are made. We discuss when exactly problems of scale can be expected to arise and highlight the potential to circumvent these by spatially and temporally down-scaling climate. We also suggest ways in which adjustments to deal with issues of scale could be made without the need to run high-resolution models over wide extents.

Many unreported crop pests and pathogens are probably already present.

Invasive species threaten global biodiversity, food security and ecosystem function. Such incursions present challenges to agriculture where invasive species cause significant crop damage and require major economic investment to control production losses. Pest risk analysis (PRA) is key to prioritize agricultural biosecurity efforts, but is hampered by incomplete knowledge of current crop pest and pathogen distributions. Here, we develop predictive models of current pest distributions and test these models using new observations at subnational resolution. We apply generalized linear models (GLM) to estimate presence probabilities for 1,739 crop pests in the CABI pest distribution database. We test model predictions for 100 unobserved pest occurrences in the People's Republic of China (PRC), against observations of these pests abstracted from the Chinese literature. This resource has hitherto been omitted from databases on global pest distributions. Finally, we predict occurrences of all unobserved pests globally. Presence probability increases with host presence, presence in neighbouring regions, per capita GDP and global prevalence. Presence probability decreases with mean distance from coast and known host number per pest. The models are good predictors of pest presence in provinces of the PRC, with area under the ROC curve (AUC) values of 0.75-0.76. Large numbers of currently unobserved, but probably present pests (defined here as unreported pests with a predicted presence probability >0.75), are predicted in China, India, southern Brazil and some countries of the former USSR. We show that GLMs can predict presences of pseudoabsent pests at subnational resolution. The Chinese literature has been largely inaccessible to Western academia but contains important information that can support PRA. Prior studies have often assumed that unreported pests in a global distribution database represent a true absence. Our analysis provides a method for quantifying pseudoabsences to enable improved PRA and species distribution modelling.

Crop-destroying fungal and oomycete pathogens challenge food security.

Of the various crop pests and pathogens which blight our harvests, it is the fungi and oomycetes which are the most widely-dispersed groups and which lead the global invasion of agriculture. Here, we highlight the rapid growth in fungal and oomycete disease incidence and spread across the globe. We draw attention to the need for improved disease surveillance and for more sustainable agricultural intensification and consider the economic and humanitarian costs of fungal and oomycete diseases.

Edge effects on moisture reduce wood decomposition rate in a temperate forest.

Forests around the world are increasingly fragmented, and edge effects on forest microclimates have the potential to affect ecosystem functions such as carbon and nutrient cycling. Edges tend to be drier and warmer due to the effects of insolation, wind, and evapotranspiration and these gradients can penetrate hundreds of metres into the forest. Litter decomposition is a key component of the carbon cycle, which is largely controlled by saprotrophic fungi that respond to variation in temperature and moisture. However, the impact of forest fragmentation on litter decay is poorly understood. Here, we investigate edge effects on the decay of wood in a temperate forest using an experimental approach, whereby mass loss in wood blocks placed along 100 m transects from the forest edge to core was monitored over 2 years. Decomposition rate increased with distance from the edge, and was correlated with increasing humidity and moisture content of the decaying wood, such that the decay constant at 100 m was nearly twice that at the edge. Mean air temperature decreased slightly with distance from the edge. The variation in decay constant due to edge effects was larger than that expected from any reasonable estimates of climatic variation, based on a published regional model. We modelled the influence of edge effects on the decay constant at the landscape scale using functions for forest area within different distances from edge across the UK. We found that taking edge effects into account would decrease the decay rate by nearly one quarter, compared with estimates that assumed no edge effect.

Economic and physical determinants of the global distributions of crop pests and pathogens.

Crop pests and pathogens pose a significant and growing threat to food security, but their geographical distributions are poorly understood. We present a global analysis of pest and pathogen distributions, to determine the roles of socioeconomic and biophysical factors in determining pest diversity, controlling for variation in observational capacity among countries. Known distributions of 1901 pests and pathogens were obtained from CABI. Linear models were used to partition the variation in pest species per country amongst predictors. Reported pest numbers increased with per capita gross domestic product (GDP), research expenditure and research capacity, and the influence of economics was greater in micro-organisms than in arthropods. Total crop production and crop diversity were the strongest physical predictors of pest numbers per country, but trade and tourism were insignificant once other factors were controlled. Islands reported more pests than mainland countries, but no latitudinal gradient in species richness was evident. Country wealth is likely to be a strong indicator of observational capacity, not just trade flow, as has been interpreted in invasive species studies. If every country had US levels of per capita GDP, then 205 ± 9 additional pests per country would be reported, suggesting that enhanced investment in pest observations will reveal the hidden threat of crop pests and pathogens.

Author inflation masks global capacity for species discovery in flowering plants.

Species discovery is a fundamental first step for all of biodiversity science. Recent research has claimed that the increasing number of authors associated with the description of new species represents an expanding workforce discovering the remaining new species from an ever-diminishing pool. Here, we present a comprehensive dataset from The International Plant Names Index (IPNI) of new species of flowering plant published between 1970 and 2011. We show that, on average, 1855 new species have been described annually since 1970. We show that compared to other scientific disciplines the increased number of authors on taxonomic papers is relatively small and may reflect changes in scientific practice rather than an increase in taxonomic capacity. These data, alongside published results demonstrating a lag period of 35 yr between a specimen being collected and published as a new species, strongly suggest that the global taxonomic capacity to describe new species of flowering plant is stagnant at a time of unprecedented concern for conservation and extinction.

Effectiveness of community forestry in Prey Long forest, Cambodia.

Cambodia has 57% forest cover, the second highest in the Greater Mekong region, and a high deforestation rate (1.2%/year, 2005-2010). Community forestry (CF) has been proposed as a way to reduce deforestation and support livelihoods through local management of forests. CF is expanding rapidly in Cambodia. The National Forests Program aims to designate one million hectares of forest to CF by 2030. However, the effectiveness of CF in conservation is not clear due to a global lack of controlled comparisons, multiple meanings of CF, and the context-specific nature of CF implementation. We assessed the effectiveness of CF by comparing 9 CF sites with paired controls in state production forest in the area of Prey Long forest, Cambodia. We assessed forest condition in 18-20 randomly placed variable-radius plots and fixed-area regeneration plots. We surveyed 10% of households in each of the 9 CF villages to determine the proportion that used forest products, as a measure of household dependence on the forest. CF sites had fewer signs of anthropogenic damage (cut stems, stumps, and burned trees), higher aboveground biomass, more regenerating stems, and reduced canopy openness than control areas. Abundance of economically valuable species, however, was higher in control sites. We used survey results and geographic parameters to model factors affecting CF outcomes. Interaction between management type, CF or control, and forest dependence indicated that CF was more effective in cases where the community relied on forest products for subsistence use and income.

Life-history traits and landscape characteristics predict macro-moth responses to forest fragmentation.

How best to manage forest patches, mitigate the consequences of forest fragmentation, and enable landscape permeability are key questions facing conservation scientists and managers. Many temperate forests have become increasingly fragmented, resulting in reduced interior forest habitat, increased edge habitats, and reduced connectivity. Using a citizen science landscape-scale mark-release-recapture study on 87 macro-moth species, we investigated how both life-history traits and landscape characteristics predicted macro-moth responses to forest fragmentation. Wingspan, wing shape, adult feeding, and larval feeding guild predicted macro-moth mobility, although the predictive power of wingspan and wing shape depended on the species' affinity to the forest. Solitary trees and small fragments functioned as "stepping stones," especially when their landscape connectivity was increased, by being positioned within hedgerows or within a favorable matrix. Mobile forest specialists were most affected by forest fragmentation: despite their high intrinsic dispersal capability, these species were confined mostly to the largest of the forest patches due to their strong affinity for the forest habitat, and were also heavily dependent on forest connectivity in order to cross the agricultural matrix. Forest fragments need to be larger than five hectares and to have interior forest more than 100 m from the edge in order to sustain populations of forest specialists. Our study provides new insights into the movement patterns of a functionally important insect group, with implications for the landscape-scale management of forest patches within agricultural landscapes.

Herbaria are a major frontier for species discovery.

Despite the importance of species discovery, the processes including collecting, recognizing, and describing new species are poorly understood. Data are presented for flowering plants, measuring quantitatively the lag between the date a specimen of a new species was collected for the first time and when it was subsequently described and published. The data from our sample of new species published between 1970 and 2010 show that only 16% were described within five years of being collected for the first time. The description of the remaining 84% involved much older specimens, with nearly one-quarter of new species descriptions involving specimens >50 y old. Extrapolation of these results suggest that, of the estimated 70,000 species still to be described, more than half already have been collected and are stored in herbaria. Effort, funding, and research focus should, therefore, be directed as much to examining extant herbarium material as collecting new material in the field.

Big hitting collectors make massive and disproportionate contribution to the discovery of plant species.

Discovering biological diversity is a fundamental goal--made urgent by the alarmingly high rate of extinction. We have compiled information from more than 100,000 type specimens to quantify the role of collectors in the discovery of plant diversity. Our results show that more than half of all type specimens were collected by less than 2 per cent of collectors. This highly skewed pattern has persisted through time. We demonstrate that a number of attributes are associated with prolific plant collectors: a long career with increasing productivity and experience in several countries and plant families. These results imply that funding a small number of expert plant collectors in the right geographical locations should be an important element in any effective strategy to find undiscovered plant species and complete the inventory of the world flora.

Climate change and plant pathogens.

Global food security is threatened by climate change, both directly through responses of crop physiology and productivity, and indirectly through responses of plant-associated microbiota, including plant pathogens. While the interactions between host plants, pathogens and environmental drivers can be complex, recent research is beginning to indicate certain overall patterns in how plant diseases will affect crop production in future. Here, we review the results of three methodological approaches: large-scale observational studies, process-based disease models and experimental comparisons of pathosystems under current and future conditions. We find that observational studies have tended to identify rising temperatures as the primary driver of disease impact. Process-based models suggest that rising temperatures will lead to latitudinal shifts in disease pressure, but drying conditions could mitigate disease risk. Experimental studies suggest that rising atmospheric CO2 will exacerbate disease impacts. Plant diseases may therefore counteract any crop yield increases due to climate change.

Emerging health threat and cost of Fusarium mycotoxins in European wheat.

Mycotoxins harm human and livestock health, while damaging economies. Here we reveal the changing threat of Fusarium head blight (FHB) mycotoxins in European wheat, using data from the European Food Safety Agency and agribusiness (BIOMIN, World Mycotoxin Survey) for ten years (2010-2019). We show persistent, high, single- and multi-mycotoxin contamination alongside changing temporal-geographical distributions, indicative of altering FHB disease pressure and pathogen populations, highlighting the potential synergistic negative health consequences and economic cost.

Simulated nitrogen deposition affects wood decomposition by cord-forming fungi.

Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition affects many natural processes, including forest litter decomposition. Saprotrophic fungi are the only organisms capable of completely decomposing lignocellulosic (woody) litter in temperate ecosystems, and therefore the responses of fungi to N deposition are critical in understanding the effects of global change on the forest carbon cycle. Plant litter decomposition under elevated N has been intensively studied, with varying results. The complexity of forest floor biota and variability in litter quality have obscured N-elevation effects on decomposers. Field experiments often utilize standardized substrates and N-levels, but few studies have controlled the decay organisms. Decomposition of beech (Fagus sylvatica) blocks inoculated with two cord-forming basidiomycete fungi, Hypholoma fasciculare and Phanerochaete velutina, was compared experimentally under realistic levels of simulated N deposition at Wytham Wood, Oxfordshire, UK. Mass loss was greater with P. velutina than with H. fasciculare, and with N treatment than in the control. Decomposition was accompanied by growth of the fungal mycelium and increasing N concentration in the remaining wood. We attribute the N effect on wood decay to the response of cord-forming wood decay fungi to N availability. Previous studies demonstrated the capacity of these fungi to scavenge and import N to decaying wood via a translocating network of mycelium. This study shows that small increases in N availability can increase wood decomposition by these organisms. Dead wood is an important carbon store and habitat. The responses of wood decomposers to anthropogenic N deposition should be considered in models of forest carbon dynamics.