Links to rare climates do not translate into distinct traits for island endemics.

Current models of island biogeography treat endemic and non-endemic species as if they were functionally equivalent, focussing primarily on species richness. Thus, the functional composition of island biotas in relation to island biogeographical variables remains largely unknown. Using plant trait data (plant height, leaf area and flower length) for 895 native species in the Canary Islands, we related functional trait distinctiveness and climate rarity for endemic and non-endemic species and island ages. Endemics showed a link to climatically rare conditions that is consistent with island geological change through time. However, functional trait distinctiveness did not differ between endemics and non-endemics and remained constant with island age. Thus, there is no obvious link between trait distinctiveness and occupancy of rare climates, at least for the traits measured here, suggesting that treating endemic and non-endemic species as functionally equivalent in island biogeography is not fundamentally wrong.

Long-term trajectories of non-native vegetation on islands globally.

Human-mediated changes in island vegetation are, among others, largely caused by the introduction and establishment of non-native species. However, data on past changes in non-native plant species abundance that predate historical documentation and censuses are scarce. Islands are among the few places where we can track human arrival in natural systems allowing us to reveal changes in vegetation dynamics with the arrival of non-native species. We matched fossil pollen data with botanical status information (native, non-native), and quantified the timing, trajectories and magnitude of non-native plant vegetational change on 29 islands over the past 5000 years. We recorded a proportional increase in pollen of non-native plant taxa within the last 1000 years. Individual island trajectories are context-dependent and linked to island settlement histories. Our data show that non-native plant introductions have a longer and more dynamic history than is generally recognized, with critical implications for biodiversity baselines and invasion biology.

A multitaxonomic assessment of Natura 2000 effectiveness across European biogeographic regions.

The Natura 2000 (N2K) protected area (PA) network is a crucial tool to limit biodiversity loss in Europe. Despite covering 18% of the European Union's (EU) land area, its effectiveness at conserving biodiversity across taxa and biogeographic regions remains uncertain. Testing this effectiveness is, however, difficult because it requires considering the nonrandom location of PAs, and many possible confounding factors. We used propensity score matching and accounted for the confounding effects of biogeographic regions, terrain ruggedness, and land cover to assess the effectiveness of N2K PAs on the distribution of 1769 species of conservation priority in the EU's Birds and Habitats Directives, including mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, arthropods, fishes, mollusks, and vascular and nonvascular plants. We compared alpha, beta, and gamma diversity between matched selections of protected and unprotected areas across EU's biogeographic regions with generalized linear models, generalized mixed models, and nonparametric tests for paired samples, respectively, for each taxonomic group and for the entire set of species. PAs in N2K hosted significantly more priority species than unprotected land, but this difference was not consistent across biogeographic regions or taxa. Total alpha diversity and alpha diversity of amphibians, arthropods, birds, mammals, and vascular plants were significantly higher inside PAs than outside, except in the Boreal biogeographical region. Beta diversity was in general significantly higher inside N2K PAs than outside. Similarly, gamma diversity had the highest values inside PAs, with some exceptions in Boreal and Atlantic regions. The planned expansion of the N2K network, as dictated by the European Biodiversity Strategy for 2030, should therefore target areas in the southern part of the Boreal region where species diversity of amphibians, arthropods, birds, mammals, and vascular plants is high and species are currently underrepresented in N2K.

Análisis multitaxonómico de la efectividad de Natura 2000 en las regiones biogeográficas de Europa Resumen La red de áreas protegidas (AP) de Natura 2000 (N2K) es una herramienta importante para reducir la pérdida de biodiversidad en Europa. A pesar de que cubre el 18% del área terrestre de la UE, todavía es incierta la efectividad que tiene para conservar la biodiversidad en los taxones y las regiones biogeográficas. Sin embargo, es complicado analizar esta efectividad porque requiere considerar la ubicación no azarosa de las AP y la posibilidad de muchos factores confusos. Usamos el pareamiento por puntaje de propensión y consideramos los efectos confusos de las regiones biogeográficas, lo accidentado del terreno y la cobertura del suelo para analizar la efectividad de las AP de N2K en la distribución de 1,769 especies (mamíferos, aves, anfibios, reptiles, artrópodos, peces, moluscos y plantas vasculares y no vasculares) con prioridad de conservación en las Directivas de Aves y Hábitats de la UE. Comparamos la diversidad alfa, beta y gamma entre las selecciones pareadas de las áreas protegidas y no protegidas en las regiones biogeográficas de la UE con los modelos generalizados lineales, mixtos y pruebas no paramétricas de las muestras pareadas, respectivamente, para cada grupo taxonómico y para el conjunto completo de especies. Las áreas protegidas en N2K tuvieron una mayoría significativa de especies prioritarias en comparación con el suelo no protegido, pero esta diferencia no fue coherente entre los taxones y las regiones biogeográficas. La diversidad alfa total y la diversidad alfa de anfibios, artrópodos, aves, mamíferos y plantas vasculares fue significativamente mayor dentro de las AP que fuera de ellas, excepto en la región biogeográfica boreal. La diversidad beta fue significativamente más alta dentro de las AP de N2K que fuera de ellas. De forma similar, la diversidad gamma tuvo los valores más altos dentro de las AP, salvo algunas excepciones en las regiones boreal y atlántica. Por lo tanto, la expansión planeada de la red N2K, como dicta la Estrategia de la UE sobre Biodiversidad para 2030, debería enfocarse en las áreas del sur de la región boreal, donde es alta la diversidad de especies de anfibios, artrópodos, aves, mamíferos y plantas vasculares y cuyas especies están poco representadas dentro de N2K.

Long-term evidence of differential resistance and resilience of grassland ecosystems to extreme climate events.

Grassland ecosystems are affected by the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (e.g., droughts). Understanding how grassland ecosystems maintain their functioning, resistance, and resilience under climatic perturbations is a topic of current concern. Resistance is the capacity of an ecosystem to withstand change against extreme climate, while resilience is the ability of an ecosystem to return to its original state after a perturbation. Using the growing season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVIgs, an index of vegetation growth) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (a drought index), we evaluated the response, resistance, and resilience of vegetation to climatic conditions for alpine grassland, grass-dominated steppe, hay meadow, arid steppe, and semi-arid steppe in northern China for the period 1982-2012. The results show that NDVIgs varied significantly across these grasslands, with the highest (lowest) NDVIgs values in alpine grassland (semi-arid steppe). We found increasing trends of greenness in alpine grassland, grass-dominated steppe, and hay meadow, while there were no detectable changes of NDVIgs in arid and semi-arid steppes. NDVIgs decreased with increasing dryness from extreme wet to extreme dry. Alpine and steppe grasslands exhibited higher resistance to and lower resilience after extreme wet, while lower resistance to and higher resilience after extreme dry conditions. No significant differences in resistance and resilience of hay meadow under climatic conditions suggest the stability of this grassland under climatic perturbations. This study concludes that highly resistant grasslands under conditions of water surplus are low resilient, but low resistant ecosystems under conditions of water shortage are highly resilient.

Global change effects on plant communities are magnified by time and the number of global change factors imposed.

Global change drivers (GCDs) are expected to alter community structure and consequently, the services that ecosystems provide. Yet, few experimental investigations have examined effects of GCDs on plant community structure across multiple ecosystem types, and those that do exist present conflicting patterns. In an unprecedented global synthesis of over 100 experiments that manipulated factors linked to GCDs, we show that herbaceous plant community responses depend on experimental manipulation length and number of factors manipulated. We found that plant communities are fairly resistant to experimentally manipulated GCDs in the short term (<10 y). In contrast, long-term (≥10 y) experiments show increasing community divergence of treatments from control conditions. Surprisingly, these community responses occurred with similar frequency across the GCD types manipulated in our database. However, community responses were more common when 3 or more GCDs were simultaneously manipulated, suggesting the emergence of additive or synergistic effects of multiple drivers, particularly over long time periods. In half of the cases, GCD manipulations caused a difference in community composition without a corresponding species richness difference, indicating that species reordering or replacement is an important mechanism of community responses to GCDs and should be given greater consideration when examining consequences of GCDs for the biodiversity-ecosystem function relationship. Human activities are currently driving unparalleled global changes worldwide. Our analyses provide the most comprehensive evidence to date that these human activities may have widespread impacts on plant community composition globally, which will increase in frequency over time and be greater in areas where communities face multiple GCDs simultaneously.

Biodiversity increases the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate extremes.

It remains unclear whether biodiversity buffers ecosystems against climate extremes, which are becoming increasingly frequent worldwide. Early results suggested that the ecosystem productivity of diverse grassland plant communities was more resistant, changing less during drought, and more resilient, recovering more quickly after drought, than that of depauperate communities. However, subsequent experimental tests produced mixed results. Here we use data from 46 experiments that manipulated grassland plant diversity to test whether biodiversity provides resistance during and resilience after climate events. We show that biodiversity increased ecosystem resistance for a broad range of climate events, including wet or dry, moderate or extreme, and brief or prolonged events. Across all studies and climate events, the productivity of low-diversity communities with one or two species changed by approximately 50% during climate events, whereas that of high-diversity communities with 16-32 species was more resistant, changing by only approximately 25%. By a year after each climate event, ecosystem productivity had often fully recovered, or overshot, normal levels of productivity in both high- and low-diversity communities, leading to no detectable dependence of ecosystem resilience on biodiversity. Our results suggest that biodiversity mainly stabilizes ecosystem productivity, and productivity-dependent ecosystem services, by increasing resistance to climate events. Anthropogenic environmental changes that drive biodiversity loss thus seem likely to decrease ecosystem stability, and restoration of biodiversity to increase it, mainly by changing the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate events.

Global patterns of nonanalogous climates in the past and future derived from thermal and hydraulic factors.

Nonanalogous climates (NACs), climates without modern analogs on Earth, challenge our understanding of eco-evolutionary processes that shape global biodiversity, particularly because of their propensity to promote novel ecosystems. However, NAC studies are generally inadequate and partial. Specifically, systematic comparisons between the future and the past are generally lacking, and hydraulic NACs tend to be underemphasized. In the present study, by adopting a frequency distribution-based method that facilitates the procedures of contributions parsing and conducting multiple comparisons, we provide a global overview of multidimensional NACs for both the past and the future within a unified framework. We show that NACs are globally prevalent, covering roughly half of the land area across the time-periods under investigation, and have a high degree of spatial structure. Patterns of NACs differ dramatically between the past and the future. Hydraulic NACs are more complex both in spatial patterns and in major contributions of variables than are thermal NACs. However, hydraulic NACs are more predictable than originally thought. Generally, hydraulic NACs in the future (2100 AD) exhibit comparable predictability to thermal NACs in the last glacial maximum (LGM) (21k BP). Identifying these NAC patterns has potential implications on climate-adaptive managements and preparing in advance to possibly frequent novel ecosystems. However, a learning-from-the-past strategy might be of limited utility for management under present circumstances.

Evaluating the risk for Usutu virus circulation in Europe: comparison of environmental niche models and epidemiological models.

BACKGROUND: Usutu virus (USUV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus, reported in many countries of Africa and Europe, with an increasing spatial distribution and host range. Recent outbreaks leading to regional declines of European common blackbird (Turdus merula) populations and a rising number of human cases emphasize the need for increased awareness and spatial risk assessment. METHODS: Modelling approaches in ecology and epidemiology differ substantially in their algorithms, potentially resulting in diverging model outputs. Therefore, we implemented a parallel approach incorporating two commonly applied modelling techniques: (1) Maxent, a correlation-based environmental niche model and (2) a mechanistic epidemiological susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model. Across Europe, surveillance data of USUV-positive birds from 2003 to 2016 was acquired to train the environmental niche model and to serve as test cases for the SEIR model. The SEIR model is mainly driven by daily mean temperature and calculates the basic reproduction number R0. The environmental niche model was run with long-term bio-climatic variables derived from the same source in order to estimate climatic suitability. RESULTS: Large areas across Europe are currently suitable for USUV transmission. Both models show patterns of high risk for USUV in parts of France, in the Pannonian Basin as well as northern Italy. The environmental niche model depicts the current situation better, but with USUV still being in an invasive stage there is a chance for under-estimation of risk. Areas where transmission occurred are mostly predicted correctly by the SEIR model, but it mostly fails to resolve the temporal dynamics of USUV events. High R0 values predicted by the SEIR model in areas without evidence for real-life transmission suggest that it may tend towards over-estimation of risk. CONCLUSIONS: The results from our parallel-model approach highlight that relying on a single model for assessing vector-borne disease risk may lead to incomplete conclusions. Utilizing different modelling approaches is thus crucial for risk-assessment of under-studied emerging pathogens like USUV.

Species richness effects on grassland recovery from drought depend on community productivity in a multisite experiment.

Biodiversity can buffer ecosystem functioning against extreme climatic events, but few experiments have explicitly tested this. Here, we present the first multisite biodiversity × drought manipulation experiment to examine drought resistance and recovery at five temperate and Mediterranean grassland sites. Aboveground biomass production declined by 30% due to experimental drought (standardised local extremity by rainfall exclusion for 72-98 consecutive days). Species richness did not affect resistance but promoted recovery. Recovery was only positively affected by species richness in low-productive communities, with most diverse communities even showing overcompensation. This positive diversity effect could be linked to asynchrony of species responses. Our results suggest that a more context-dependent view considering the nature of the climatic disturbance as well as the productivity of the studied system will help identify under which circumstances biodiversity promotes drought resistance or recovery. Stability of biomass production can generally be expected to decrease with biodiversity loss and climate change.

Effects of extreme drought on specific leaf area of grassland species: A meta-analysis of experimental studies in temperate and sub-Mediterranean systems.

Here, we conducted a meta-analysis of experimental drought manipulation studies using rainout shelters in five sites of natural grassland ecosystems of Europe. The single studies assess the effects of extreme drought on the intraspecific variation of the specific leaf area (SLA), a proxy of plant growth. We evaluate and compare the effect size of the SLA response for the functional groups of forbs and grasses in temperate and sub-Mediterranean systems. We hypothesized that the functional groups of grasses and forbs from temperate grassland systems have different strategies in short-term drought response, measured as adjustment of SLA, with SLA-reduction in grasses and SLA-maintenance in forbs. Second, we hypothesized that grasses and forbs from sub-Mediterranean systems do not differ in their drought response as both groups maintain their SLA. We found a significant decrease of SLA in grasses of the temperate systems in response to drought while SLA of forbs showed no significant response. Lower SLA is associated with enhanced water-use efficiency under water stress and thus can be seen as a strategy of phenotypic adjustment. By contrast, in the sub-Mediterranean systems, grasses significantly increased their SLA in the drought treatment. This result points towards a better growth performance of these grasses, which is most likely related to their strategy to allocate resources to belowground parts. The observed SLA reduction of forbs is most likely a direct drought response given that competitive effect of grasses is unlikely due to the scanty vegetation cover. We point out that phenotypic adjustment is an important driver of short-term functional plant response to climatic extremes such as drought. Differential reactions of functional groups have to be interpreted against the background of the group's evolutionary configuration that can differ between climatic zones.

Plant responses to climatic extremes: within-species variation equals among-species variation.

Within-species and among-species differences in growth responses to a changing climate have been well documented, yet the relative magnitude of within-species vs. among-species variation has remained largely unexplored. This missing comparison impedes our ability to make general predictions of biodiversity change and to project future species distributions using models. We present a direct comparison of among- versus within-species variation in response to three of the main stresses anticipated with climate change: drought, warming, and frost. Two earlier experiments had experimentally induced (i) summer drought and (ii) spring frost for four common European grass species and their ecotypes from across Europe. To supplement existing data, a third experiment was carried out, to compare variation among species from different functional groups to within-species variation. Here, we simulated (iii) winter warming plus frost for four grasses, two nonleguminous, and two leguminous forbs, in addition to eleven European ecotypes of the widespread grass Arrhenatherum elatius. For each experiment, we measured: (i) C/N ratio and biomass, (ii) chlorophyll content and biomass, and (iii) plant greenness, root (15) N uptake, and live and dead tissue mass. Using coefficients of variation (CVs) for each experiment and response parameter, a total of 156 within- vs. among-species comparisons were conducted, comparing within-species variation in each of four species with among-species variation for each seed origin (five countries). Of the six significant differences, within-species CVs were higher than among-species CVs in four cases. Partitioning of variance within each treatment in two of the three experiments showed that within-species variability (ecotypes) could explain an additional 9% of response variation after accounting for the among-species variation. Our observation that within-species variation was generally as high as among-species variation emphasizes the importance of including both within- and among-species variability in ecological theory (e.g., the insurance hypothesis) and for practical applications (e.g., biodiversity conservation).

Effects of anthropogenic fragmentation on primary productivity and soil carbon storage in temperate mountain grasslands.

Habitat fragmentation is one of the most severe anthropogenic pressures exerted on ecosystem's biodiversity. Empirical studies to date focused with an overriding interest on the effects of habitat loss or habitat fragmentation per se on species richness patterns detrimental to biogeochemical processes. To account for changes in ecosystem fluxes, we investigated how anthropogenic fragmentation affects primary productivity and carbon storage in temperate mountain grasslands. A field study was conducted to assess the influence of grassland isolation on soil carbon stocks, N availability, species biomass, and plant functional groups distribution. We tested the hypothesis that increased isolation of grassland, within the land cover, decreases soil carbon stocks, and available N nutrient as well as aboveground biomass. Soil carbon concentration decreased with isolation but increased near the forest edge. We found significant differences in aboveground biomass distribution and relative contribution of plant functional groups between isolation conditions. The magnitude of edge effect on carbon stocks, N availability, and primary productivity intensified with increasing isolation as a consequence of the additive influence of edges. Our study reveals that the potential creation of artificially isolated patches diminished primary productivity, N availability, and C stocks. However, in highly managed landscapes, grazing pressure is an additional factor that changes biomass and nutrients patterns. We emphasize that spatial configuration of the landscape has a major role in modulating ecological flows and ecosystem service supply, in addition to changes in species richness.

Warming differentially influences the effects of drought on stoichiometry and metabolomics in shoots and roots.

Plants in natural environments are increasingly being subjected to a combination of abiotic stresses, such as drought and warming, in many regions. The effects of each stress and the combination of stresses on the functioning of shoots and roots have been studied extensively, but little is known about the simultaneous metabolome responses of the different organs of the plant to different stresses acting at once. We studied the shift in metabolism and elemental composition of shoots and roots of two perennial grasses, Holcus lanatus and Alopecurus pratensis, in response to simultaneous drought and warming. These species responded differently to individual and simultaneous stresses. These responses were even opposite in roots and shoots. In plants exposed to simultaneous drought and warming, terpenes, catechin and indole acetic acid accumulated in shoots, whereas amino acids, quinic acid, nitrogenous bases, the osmoprotectants choline and glycine betaine, and elements involved in growth (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium) accumulated in roots. Under drought, warming further increased the allocation of primary metabolic activity to roots and changed the composition of secondary metabolites in shoots. These results highlight the plasticity of plant metabolomes and stoichiometry, and the different complementary responses of shoots and roots to complex environmental conditions.

Shifts in the elemental composition of plants during a very severe drought.

Diverse plant functions (e.g. growth, storage, defense and anti-stress mechanisms) use elements disproportionally. We hypothesized that plants growing under different abiotic and biotic conditions would shift their elemental compositions in response to a very severe drought. We tested this hypothesis by investigating the changes in foliar stoichiometry and species composition from a very severe drought. We also tested the effects of previous droughts (acclimation) on this response. Different species growing in the same community responded more similarly to a very severe drought than did individual species growing in different communities. The stoichiometric shifts were thus more community-dependent than species-dependent. The results also suggested that plants grown in monoculture were less stoichiometrically plastic during the drought than plants grown in a more diverse community. Previous exposure to long-term drought treatments in the same communities did not significantly affect the stoichiometric shifts during the new drought. Differential use of resources may have been responsible for these responses. Monocultured plants, which used the same resources in similar proportions, had more difficulty avoiding direct competition when the resources became scarcer. Moreover, each species tested had a particular elemental composition in all communities and climatic treatments. The differences in foliar elemental compositions were largest between plant functional groups (shrubs and grasses) and smallest among species within the same functional group. Global principal components analyses (PCAs) identified a general tendency for all species, independently of the community in which they grew, toward lower concentrations of K, N, P, Mg and S, and to higher concentrations of C and Fe as the drought advanced. This study has demonstrated the utility of analyses of differences and shifts in plant elemental composition for understanding the processes underlying the responses of plants to changes in biotic and abiotic environmental conditions.

The last decade in ecological climate change impact research: where are we now?

Climate change is increasingly affecting organisms and ecosystems. The amount of research and the number of articles in this field is overwhelming. However, single studies necessarily consider limited aspects. Hence, there is an increasing need for structuring the research approaches and findings in climate change research in order to direct future action in an efficient way towards research gaps and areas of uncertainty. Here, we review the current state of knowledge accumulated over the last 10 years (2003-2012) about impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems. Almost 1,200 articles of the scientific literature listed in the ISI Web of Science are analysed. We explore the geographical distribution of knowledge gain, the studied taxonomic groups, ecosystems and environmental parameters as well as the applied methods. Several knowledge gaps arise. Most of the first authors of the analysed articles are residents of North America, Australia or Europe. A similar pattern is found for the study areas. Vascular plants and therewith forests are the most studied taxonomic group and ecosystem. The use of models to estimate potential impacts of climate change is well established in climate change impact research and is continuously developing. However, there is a lack of empirical data derived from experimental climate change simulations. In a rapidly evolving research landscape, this review aims at providing an overview of the current patterns of knowledge distribution and research demands arising from knowledge gaps and biases. Our results should help to identify future research needs and priorities.

Spatiotemporally Explicit Epidemic Model for West Nile Virus Outbreak in Germany: An Inversely Calibrated Approach.

Since the first autochthonous transmission of West Nile Virus was detected in Germany (WNV) in 2018, it has become endemic in several parts of the country and is continuing to spread due to the attainment of a suitable environment for vector occurrence and pathogen transmission. Increasing temperature associated with a changing climate has been identified as a potential driver of mosquito-borne disease in temperate regions. This scenario justifies the need for the development of a spatially and temporarily explicit model that describes the dynamics of WNV transmission in Germany. In this study, we developed a process-based mechanistic epidemic model driven by environmental and epidemiological data. Functional traits of mosquitoes and birds of interest were used to parameterize our compartmental model appropriately. Air temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity were the key climatic forcings used to replicate the fundamental niche responsible for supporting mosquito population and infection transmission risks in the study area. An inverse calibration method was used to optimize our parameter selection. Our model was able to generate spatially and temporally explicit basic reproductive number (R0) maps showing dynamics of the WNV occurrences across Germany, which was strongly associated with the deviation from daily means of climatic forcings, signaling the impact of a changing climate in vector-borne disease dynamics. Epidemiological data for human infections sourced from Robert Koch Institute and animal cases collected from the Animal Diseases Information System (TSIS) of the Friedrich-Loeffler-Institute were used to validate model-simulated transmission rates. From our results, it was evident that West Nile Virus is likely to spread towards the western parts of Germany with the rapid attainment of environmental suitability for vector mosquitoes and amplifying host birds, especially short-distance migratory birds. Locations with high risk of WNV outbreak (Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, Berlin, Brandenburg, Hamburg, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Saxony-Anhalt and Saxony) were shown on R0 maps. This study presents a path for developing an early warning system for vector-borne diseases driven by climate change.

Volcanic tephra deposition dataset based on interpolated field measurements following the 2021 Tajogaite Eruption on La Palma, Canary Islands, Spain.

In 2021, the Tajogaite Volcano erupted along the western slope of the Cumbre Vieja on the island of La Palma, Canary Islands, Spain. Volcanic tephra blanketed a substantial proportion of the island. By our estimations, approximately 23,000,000 m3 of pyroclastic ashes and more coarse-grained particles were deposited unto La Palma's land surface in addition to the lava flow. Five months following the initial eruption, we measured the depth of the new ash layer across the island. We combined this data with drone-based observations to compile a dataset comprising the point distribution of ash depth. A spatial interpolation was then performed using Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) to estimate the ash depth across the island at a 2 m spatial resolution. The interpolation performed well, yielding a root mean squared error (RMSE) value of 0.34 and thus, the dataset offers immense reuse potential for spatial inquiries related to evolutionary traits, vegetation patterns, and vegetation response to disturbance on oceanic islands. In addition, the data can be used to test different spatial interpolation techniques in an effort to improve the accuracy achieved using IDW.

Predicting ectotherm disease vector spread--benefits from multidisciplinary approaches and directions forward.

The occurrence of ectotherm disease vectors outside of their previous distribution area and the emergence of vector-borne diseases can be increasingly observed at a global scale and are accompanied by a growing number of studies which investigate the vast range of determining factors and their causal links. Consequently, a broad span of scientific disciplines is involved in tackling these complex phenomena. First, we evaluate the citation behaviour of relevant scientific literature in order to clarify the question "do scientists consider results of other disciplines to extend their expertise?" We then highlight emerging tools and concepts useful for risk assessment. Correlative models (regression-based, machine-learning and profile techniques), mechanistic models (basic reproduction number R0) and methods of spatial regression, interaction and interpolation are described. We discuss further steps towards multidisciplinary approaches regarding new tools and emerging concepts to combine existing approaches such as Bayesian geostatistical modelling, mechanistic models which avoid the need for parameter fitting, joined correlative and mechanistic models, multi-criteria decision analysis and geographic profiling. We take the quality of both occurrence data for vector, host and disease cases, and data of the predictor variables into consideration as both determine the accuracy of risk area identification. Finally, we underline the importance of multidisciplinary research approaches. Even if the establishment of communication networks between scientific disciplines and the share of specific methods is time consuming, it promises new insights for the surveillance and control of vector-borne diseases worldwide.

Climate change effects on Chikungunya transmission in Europe: geospatial analysis of vector's climatic suitability and virus' temperature requirements.

BACKGROUND: Chikungunya was, from the European perspective, considered to be a travel-related tropical mosquito-borne disease prior to the first European outbreak in Northern Italy in 2007. This was followed by cases of autochthonous transmission reported in South-eastern France in 2010. Both events occurred after the introduction, establishment and expansion of the Chikungunya-competent and highly invasive disease vector Aedes albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito) in Europe. In order to assess whether these outbreaks are indicative of the beginning of a trend or one-off events, there is a need to further examine the factors driving the potential transmission of Chikungunya in Europe. The climatic suitability, both now and in the future, is an essential starting point for such an analysis. METHODS: The climatic suitability for Chikungunya outbreaks was determined by using bioclimatic factors that influence, both vector and, pathogen. Climatic suitability for the European distribution of the vector Aedes albopictus was based upon previous correlative environmental niche models. Climatic risk classes were derived by combining climatic suitability for the vector with known temperature requirements for pathogen transmission, obtained from outbreak regions. In addition, the longest potential intra-annual season for Chikungunya transmission was estimated for regions with expected vector occurrences.In order to analyse spatio-temporal trends for risk exposure and season of transmission in Europe, climate change impacts are projected for three time-frames (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) and two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These climatic projections are based on regional climate model COSMO-CLM, which builds on the global model ECHAM5. RESULTS: European areas with current and future climatic suitability of Chikungunya transmission are identified. An increase in risk is projected for Western Europe (e.g. France and Benelux-States) in the first half of the 21st century and from mid-century onwards for central parts of Europe (e.g. Germany). Interestingly, the southernmost parts of Europe do not generally provide suitable conditions in these projections. Nevertheless, many Mediterranean regions will persist to be climatically suitable for transmission. Overall, the highest risk of transmission by the end of the 21st century was projected for France, Northern Italy and the Pannonian Basin (East-Central Europe). This general tendency is depicted in both, the A1B and B1 climate change scenarios. CONCLUSION: In order to guide preparedness for further outbreaks, it is crucial to anticipate risk as to identify areas where specific public health measures, such as surveillance and vector control, can be implemented. However, public health practitioners need to be aware that climate is only one factor driving the transmission of vector-borne disease.

Diurnal temperature range as a key predictor of plants' elevation ranges globally.

A prominent hypothesis in ecology is that larger species ranges are found in more variable climates because species develop broader environmental tolerances, predicting a positive range size-temperature variability relationship. However, this overlooks the extreme temperatures that variable climates impose on species, with upper or lower thermal limits more likely to be exceeded. Accordingly, we propose the 'temperature range squeeze' hypothesis, predicting a negative range size-temperature variability relationship. We test these contrasting predictions by relating 88,000 elevation range sizes of vascular plants in 44 mountains to short- and long-term temperature variation. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that species' range size is negatively correlated with diurnal temperature range. Accurate predictions of short-term temperature variation will become increasingly important for extinction risk assessment in the future.