Choosing Wisely, the reasons for its success.

The philosophy and the history of the International Choosing Wisely movement, launched in the U.S. in 2012, are described. It grew and spread beyond what it was anticipated at the beginning because there is a rising concern of the medical community regarding the appropriate use of procedures and treatments placed into the market before an adequate evaluation of risks and benefits. Not only healthcare providers, but also patients, citizens and politicians, are becoming aware of the consequences of inappropriate decisions and behaviors since inappropriateness has economic (waste of resources), clinical (risks), but also ethical implications. In Italy the movement was launched and still is coordinated by the Slow Medicine organization, that created the campaign Doing more does not mean doing better - Choosing Wisely Italy, which aimed to improve clinical appropriateness through the reduction of unnecessary tests and treatments and the dialogue between physicians and patients. Currently, 44 societies of physicians, nurses, pharmacists and physiotherapists identified 230 recommendations about tests, treatments and procedures commonly used in Italy's clinical practice that do not provide any benefit to most patients but may cause harm.

"Hosting" an implantable cardioverter defibrillator: A phenomenological inquiry.

Implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) can reduce unexpected cardiac mortality, but they also have a dramatic impact on a patient's quality of life. We aimed to explore ICD recipients' experiences in order to foster improvements in the quality of care. Analyses were done using a descriptive phenomenological method, based on qualitative interview data from a purposive sample of 20 ICD recipients. Four main themes emerged: living with fear; relying on technology; knowing about the ICD and how to live with it; and coping with the effects of the ICD on daily life. ICD recipients lived in a constant state of fear due to the presence of the device and the uncertainty related to the potential electrical shocks it could deliver. This fear was compounded by changes that severely affected the quality of their daily life. ICD recipients felt they were always on the brink of death, and that although they received sufficient technical information they did not feel they received meaningful information to help them accept, live with, and cope with the device. Emotional information and support, rather than technical information, must be provided to ICD recipients to give them the ability to cope with the everyday threats they perceive because of the device. Qualitative evidence may help professionals tackle known threats to patients' quality of life and increase the quality of care.

[Individual response to treatment: from Withering to contemporary medicine]. / La risposta individuale ai trattamenti. Da Withering alla medicina di oggi.

This is an essay dealing with the 1785 cohort study by William Withering (the "account"), in which he reported the results of the treatment with foxglove (Digitalis purpurea) in 163 patients suffering from various forms of hydropsy (water retention). Withering reported the results of all patients, and classified them into responders and non-responders. He identified the responders as suffering from heart failure. In the 18th century, medical treatments were judged as successful if they complied with the criteria a priori of the theory of the four humors, and not on the patient's response to the treatment. Withering was the first not only to compare the patient's conditions before and after treatment, but also to identify the individual clinical characteristics of the patients who responded. In modern medicine, drugs are released on the market and approved for use after what is known as "population-derived clinical research", principally randomized controlled trials, and guidelines. More than 200 years ago, Withering anticipated the current and growing trend towards individual responses to treatment, and personalized medicine.

[The fox guarding the henhouse. Who decides diagnostic criteria?] / Affidare alla volpe il compito di proteggere le galline. Chi decide i criteri diagnostici?

To reduce overprescribing, the consequences due to the invention of new diseases and the systematic reduction of threshold values have been studied, and projects to reduce procedures of low efficacy, the number of prescribed drugs, and procedures at risk of inappropriateness have been developed. The composition of committees establishing diagnostic criteria was never addressed. To avoid this problem (de-diagnosing) four procedures should be implemented: 1) diagnostic criteria should be assigned to a committee of general practitioners, clinical specialists, experts like epidemiologists, sociologists, philosophers, psychologists, economists, and representatives of citizens and patients; 2) experts do not have relevant conflicts of interest; 3) criteria should be set up as recommendations to facilitate discussion between a physician and a patient on the decision whether to begin a treatment and not as a recommendation functional to overprescription; 4) criteria should be periodically revised to approach the process closer to the experiences and needs of physicians and patients.

[ANMCO Position paper: Choosing Wisely - ANMCO proposals for 2023]. / Position paper ANMCO: Choosing Wisely ­ le proposte dell'ANMCO nel 2023.

Nowadays, a progressive and exponential increase in the use of invasive and non-invasive instrumental diagnostics and therapeutic services has been shown. Although unnecessary, instrumental examinations are often largely prescribed, replacing clinical evaluation. Their correct use, on the contrary, would address precise epidemiological and clinical contexts. Therefore identifying whether a test or procedure is appropriate or not plays a crucial role in clinical practice. Several documents from scientific societies and expert groups indicate the most appropriate cardiovascular diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. The international Choosing Wisely campaign invited the main scientific societies to identify five techniques or treatments used in their field that are often unnecessary and may potentially damage patients. The Italian Association of Hospital Cardiologists (ANMCO) joined the project identifying the five cardiological practices in our country at greater risk of inappropriateness in 2014. This list has recently been updated. Moreover, possible solutions to this problem have been proposed.

[When medicine is respectful.] / Quando la medicina è rispettosa.

There is a relevant gap between the medicine learned on books and the clinical practice made of suffering humans facing us. Guidelines recommendations don't usually cover this aspect. The Slow Medicine movement, born in 2011, stands as a model a sober respectful and right healthcare. Everyone is entitled to express himself freely: a respectful medicine receives worths, choices and tendencies of the patient in every moment of his life. The keystone of slow decisions is to respect patient's freedom and autonomy, and to recognize his ability to make decisions even if he is elderly and frail. Listening to a patient's biography and welcoming his personal needs and expectations allows the physician to spread comfort, trust and gratification.

[Polypharmacy and deprescribing in cardiology]. / Politerapia e deprescrizione in cardiologia.

Inappropriate prescribing of diagnostic procedures and treatments should be avoided for good medical practice. Furthermore, the therapeutic plan of each patient should be regularly revised, activating deprescription procedures to reduce the dosage or to discontinue unnecessary drugs. It has widely been reported that the number of drugs taken by each patient increases over the years and adverse events caused by polypharmacy therapy are increasingly reported. Polypharmacy is due to multimorbidity related to longer life expectancy, but it is also induced by drug manufacturers' pressures, the practice of prescribing one product to counteract the adverse effects of another, the division into subspecialties inducing clinicians to solve the specific problem regardless of the patient therapeutic profile, and the uncritical implementation of current guidelines. The recommendations published by scientific societies for the international Choosing Wisely project allow to identify practices at risk of inappropriateness, and programs are available to help evaluating the risks of several drug associations, taking into consideration different aspects of pharmacology, drug interactions, potentially inappropriate in the elderly, according to different criteria from the scientific literature. The safety of reducing or withdrawing under strict medical supervision some cardiovascular treatments has been demonstrated, with documented benefits for the patients.

Plasma brain natriuretic peptide predicts short-term clinical outcome in heart failure patients with restrictive filling pattern.

OBJECTIVE: Plasma brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) is an important parameter of severity in congestive heart failure (CHF). We analyzed if BNP might stratify 6-month clinical outcome in outpatients with CHF with restrictive mitral filling pattern. METHODS: All subjects with New York Heart Association (NYHA) class II to IV and restrictive filling pattern were enrolled at hospital discharge after an acute decompensation. NYHA class, BNP, and echocardiogram for the evaluation of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and diastolic function were analyzed. Death and hospital readmission for CHF were the clinical events observed. RESULTS: A total of 250 patients (66% were male, mean age 73 years) were enrolled. The mean NYHA class was 2.5 +/- 0.6, LVEF was 38% +/- 15%, and mean deceleration time was 120 +/- 16 ms. The mean BNP was 643 +/- 566 pg/mL. During the 6-month follow-up, 35 patients (14%) died and 106 patients (42.4%) were readmitted for CHF (event group); in 109 patients (43.6%) no events were observed (no-event group). Higher NYHA class (2.7 +/- 0.6 vs 2.4 +/- 0.6, P = .001) and reduced LVEF (34% +/- 13% vs 42% +/- 17%, P = .01) but similar deceleration time (119 +/- 16 ms vs 122 +/- 17 ms, P = not significant) were observed in the event group. A higher level of mean BNP (833 +/- 604 pg/mL vs 397 +/- 396 pg/mL, P = .01) was recorded in the event group. The multivariate Cox analysis confirmed that LVEF (P = .04), NYHA class (P = .02), and plasma BNP (P = .0001) were associated with adverse short-term clinical outcome. CONCLUSION: Patients with CHF with a restrictive diastolic pattern had poor short-term clinical outcome. NYHA class and LVEF at discharge might predict cardiovascular events, but plasma BNP proved to be the strongest predictor.

Reversible impairment of coronary flow reserve in takotsubo cardiomyopathy: a myocardial PET study.

BACKGROUND: The precise etiology of takotsubo cardiomyopathy remains unclear. The study of myocardial blood flow (MBF) and coronary flow reserve (CFR) by use of positron emission tomography might help in understanding this syndrome. METHODS AND RESULTS: Three postmenopausal women underwent adenosine/rest perfusion with nitrogen 13 ammonia and metabolism with fluorine 18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography, coronary angiography, cardiac magnetic resonance, and echocardiography in the acute phase of takotsubo cardiomyopathy and at 3 months' follow-up, after normalization of left ventricular function. PET study was performed in 2 parts: the perfusion analysis with nitrogen ammonia and the metabolism of the heart using FDG. MBF and CFR were analyzed quantitatively in the acute phase and at follow-up. The images highlighted the impairment of tissue metabolism in the dysfunctioning left ventricular segments in the acute phase, mainly in the apical segments and progressively less in the medium segments. At the same time, a clear inverse metabolic/perfusion mismatch emerged, which normalized 3 months later. The quantitative analysis of MBF showed a reduction in the acute phase in apical segments in comparison to basal segments without differences between midventricular and basal segments. In the acute phase CFR proved to be reduced in apical versus basal segments. CFR impairment of apical segments recovered completely after 3 months. CONCLUSION: The acute phase of takotsubo cardiomyopathy is characterized by an inverse perfusion/metabolism mismatch with a reduction in CFR in the apical segments. However, the impairment of CFR and the reduction of metabolism in the apical segments recovered completely after 3 months.

Cardiac resynchronization therapy modifies the neurohormonal profile, hemodynamic and functional capacity in heart failure patients.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) has been shown to improve the clinical status and survival in congestive heart failure (CHF) patients, but little is known about its influence on neurohormonal profile. METHODS: Heart failure patients treated with CRT for moderate/severe heart failure were studied with echocardiography, cardiopulmonary test, and neurohormonal profile [brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), endothelin (END), big endothelin (big-END), epinephrine (EPI), tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha)] at baseline and after 1 year from the pacemaker implantation. RESULTS: 120 NYHA II-IV patients entered this study, all with an indication to CRT; 100 agreed to be implanted (group A), whereas 20 refused, identifying a control group (group B). In group A NYHA class (from 3.15+/-0.49-1.15+/-0.49, p=0.001), left ventricular ejection fraction (from 19.6+/-4.95-35.6+/-5.95%, p=0.001), severity of mitral regurgitation (from 13.3+/-4.19-6.09+/-4.11 cmq, p=0.001), and peak VO(2) (from 9.68+/-4.61-13.35+/-3.32 mL/kg/min, p=0.001) improved at 1-year follow-up. In the neurohormonal profile only plasma BNP (from 185.1+/-185.9-110.2+/-137.5 pg/mL, p=0.03) and big-END (from 1.8+/-1.5-0.87+/-0.7 fmol/mL, p=0.007) were reduced significantly. None of these parameters significantly changed in the control group at 1-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with moderate/severe heart failure, CRT improved clinical status and the functional parameters modifying the neurohormonal profile at 1-year follow-up.

[Management of heart failure in Piedmont Region]. / La gestione ambulatoriale dello scompenso cardiaco cronico nella Regione Piemonte.

BACKGROUND: Congestive heart failure (CHF) represents an emerging problem in industrialized countries: it continues to be diagnosed at high rates and has an decreased survival time, raising new problems, such as the need of an adequate medical service organization and resource expenditure. Aim of this analysis was a quantitative evaluation of diagnostic and therapeutic resource use for CHF in outpatient departments in Piedmont, Italy. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional observational study, based on a two-month data collection in 12 outpatient departments dedicated to congestive heart failure. Information was obtained on each patient using a specific anonymous data collection form. RESULTS: We obtained and analyzed for the study 547forms. Mean patient age was 66.1 years, mean ejection fraction was 36.6%. Coronary artery disease accounted for 34.6% of congestive heart failure cases, followed by idiopathic etiology (26.4%). Main comorbidities were diabetes (22.3%) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (17.7%). Sixty-nine% of patients received a medical treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors, 72.6% with beta-blockers, 48.8% with aldosterone antagonists. As far as diagnostic resource use during a six-month period preceeding observation, 46.8% of patients underwent echocardiographic examination, 9.9% Holter ECG, 6.0% coronary angiography. Therapy was more often increased in patients who underwent an instrumental evaluation during the preceeding six-month period. CONCLUSIONS: Data suggests that in Piedmont outpatients with chronic heart failure receive a high drug prescription level and a small number of instrumental evaluations, as suggested in main international guidelines.

Colchicine in addition to conventional therapy for acute pericarditis: results of the COlchicine for acute PEricarditis (COPE) trial.

BACKGROUND: Colchicine is effective and safe for the treatment and prevention of recurrent pericarditis and might ultimately serve as the initial mode of treatment, especially in idiopathic cases. The aim of this work was to verify the safety and efficacy of colchicine as an adjunct to conventional therapy for the treatment of the first episode of acute pericarditis. METHODS AND RESULTS: A prospective, randomized, open-label design was used. A total of 120 patients (mean age 56.9+/-18.8 years, 54 males) with a first episode of acute pericarditis (idiopathic, viral, postpericardiotomy syndromes, and connective tissue diseases) were randomly assigned to conventional treatment with aspirin (group I) or conventional treatment plus colchicine 1.0 to 2.0 mg for the first day and then 0.5 to 1.0 mg/d for 3 months (group II). Corticosteroid therapy was restricted to patients with aspirin contraindications or intolerance. The primary end point was recurrence rate. During the 2873 patient-month follow-up, colchicine significantly reduced the recurrence rate (recurrence rates at 18 months were, respectively, 10.7% versus 32.3%; P=0.004; number needed to treat=5) and symptom persistence at 72 hours (respectively, 11.7% versus 36.7%; P=0.003). After multivariate analysis, corticosteroid use (OR 4.30, 95% CI 1.21 to 15.25; P=0.024) was an independent risk factor for recurrences. Colchicine was discontinued in 5 cases (8.3%) because of diarrhea. No serious adverse effects were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Colchicine plus conventional therapy led to a clinically important and statistically significant benefit over conventional treatment, decreasing the recurrence rate in patients with a first episode of acute pericarditis. Corticosteroid therapy given in the index attack can favor the occurrence of recurrences.

Colchicine as first-choice therapy for recurrent pericarditis: results of the CORE (COlchicine for REcurrent pericarditis) trial.

BACKGROUND: Colchicine seems to be a good drug for treating recurrences of pericarditis after conventional treatment failure, but no clinical trial has tested the effects of colchicine as first-line drug for the treatment of the first recurrence of pericarditis. METHODS: A prospective, randomized, open-label design was used to investigate the safety and efficacy of colchicine therapy as adjunct to conventional therapy for the first episode of recurrent pericarditis. Eighty-four consecutive patients with a first episode of recurrent pericarditis were randomly assigned to receive conventional treatment with aspirin alone or conventional treatment plus colchicine (1.0-2.0 mg the first day and then 0.5-1.0 mg/d for 6 months). When aspirin was contraindicated, prednisone (1.0-1.5 mg/kg daily) was given for 1 month and then was gradually tapered. The primary end point was the recurrence rate. Intention-to-treat analyses were performed by treatment group. RESULTS: During 1682 patient-months (mean follow-up, 20 months), treatment with colchicine significantly decreased the recurrence rate (actuarial rates at 18 months were 24.0% vs 50.6%; P = .02; number needed to treat = 4.0; 95% confidence interval 2.5-7.1) and symptom persistence at 72 hours (10% vs 31%; P = .03). In multivariate analysis, previous corticosteroid use was an independent risk factor for further recurrences (odds ratio, 2.89; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-8.26; P = .04). No serious adverse effects were observed. CONCLUSION: Colchicine therapy led to a clinically important and statistically significant benefit over conventional treatment, decreasing the recurrence rate in patients with a first episode of recurrent pericarditis.

Cardiac troponin I in acute pericarditis.

OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to investigate the prognostic value of cardiac troponin I (cTnI) in viral or idiopathic pericarditis. BACKGROUND: Idiopathic acute pericarditis has been recently reported as a possible cause of nonischemic release of cTnI. The prognostic value of this observation remains unknown. METHODS: We enrolled 118 consecutive cases (age 49.2 +/- 18.4 years; 61 men) within 24 h of symptoms onset. A highly sensitive enzymoimmunofluorometric method was used to measure cTnI (acute myocardial infarction [AMI] threshold was 1.5 ng/ml). RESULTS: A cTnI rise was detectable in 38 patients (32.2%). The following characteristics were more frequently associated with a positive cTnI test: younger age (p < 0.001), male gender (p = 0.007), ST-segment elevation (p < 0.001), and pericardial effusion (p = 0.007) at presentation. An increase beyond AMI threshold was present in nine cases (7.6%), with an associated creatine kinase-MB elevation, a release pattern similar to AMI, and echocardiographic diffuse or localized abnormal left ventricular wall motion without detectable coronary artery disease. After a mean follow-up of 24 months a similar rate of complications was found in patients with a positive or a negative cTnI test (recurrent pericarditis: 18.4 vs. 18.8%; constrictive pericarditis: 0 vs. 1.3%, for all p = NS; no cases of cardiac tamponade or residual left ventricular dysfunction were detected). CONCLUSIONS: In viral or idiopathic acute pericarditis cTnI elevation is frequently observed and commonly associated with young age, male gender, ST-segment elevation, and pericardial effusion at presentation. cTnI increase is roughly related to the extent of myocardial inflammatory involvement and, unlike acute coronary syndromes, is not a negative prognostic marker.

Relation of acute pericardial disease to malignancy.

Neoplastic etiology was found in 33 of 450 patients with acute pericardial disease (7.3%). Acute pericardial disease was the first manifestation of previously unknown malignancies in 18 of 450 patients (4.0%), and lung cancer was the most common malignancy (72.2%, p = 0.02). The following clinical characteristics were associated with a greater probability of a neoplastic etiology: a history of malignancy (odds ratio [OR] 19.8), cardiac tamponade at presentation (OR 7.0), a lack of response to nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, and recurrent or incessant pericarditis (OR 10.0). A similar prognosis was found in patients with or without a history of known cancer.

Management, risk factors, and outcomes in recurrent pericarditis.

Fifty-five of 294 consecutive patients with acute pericarditis had first attacks of recurrent pericarditis and were evaluated and treated according to a management protocol. Corticosteroids were restricted to aspirin contraindication or failure. Colchicine was added in cases of aspirin and prednisone failure and was the treatment of choice for the second and subsequent recurrences. After logistic regression multivariate analysis, only the previous use of corticosteroids (odds ratio 10.35, 95% confidence interval 4.46 to 23.99, p <0.001) was associated with an increased risk for recurrence. After a mean follow-up of 72 months (range 48 to 108), a similar rate of complications was found in patients with or without recurrences.

[Hospital admissions for congestive heart failure in Piedmont, Italy: 1996-2001 trend]. / Epidemiologia dei ricoveri per scompenso cardiaco in Piemonte tra il 1996 e il 2001.

BACKGROUND: Since epidemiological studies on congestive heart failure (CHF) have shown somewhat contradictory results, detailed analyses of local trends may be useful in order to plan health strategies. METHODS: All patients discharged from public hospitals between 1996 and 2001 with a DRG 127 were evaluated. For patients living in the city of Turin, 1- and 12-month survival analysis was performed. Multivariate analysis was performed for both the total DRG 127 discharges and patients without acute CHF (ICD9CM 785). RESULTS: During the 6-year period 56292 discharges were classified as DRG 127. Hospital discharges for CHF increased until 1999, and then remained stable. Because of the progressive decrease of total number of hospital discharges, the percentage of DRG 127 increased from 1.3 to 2%. Mean age increased from 72.8 to 75.4 years in men and from 77.9 to 80.0 years in women. The average hospital stay decreased from 10.8 to 9.9 days in men, from 11.5 to 10.7 days in women. Within 12 months 17.4% of patients were re-hospitalized. The in-hospital mortality decreased from 17.3 to 14.3% in men and from 20.1 to 14.6% in women. For urban population both 1-month and 12-month mortality (from 40.5 to 35.5% in men, from 33.5 to 28.7% in women) decreased. The subgroup with acute CHF within DRG 127 decreased from 11.8 to 4.8%. At multivariate analysis in-hospital mortality is logically correlated with the age of patients and an increase of the mortality, both in women and men, is shown for patients not admitted in a cardiology department. CONCLUSIONS: The number of CHF hospital discharges, between 1998 and 2001, remained stable, but increased with respect to total admissions. The reduction of in-hospital, 1-month, and 12-month mortality seems to be more dependent on different patient characteristics than to a real effect.

[Patients facing with the decision to undergo percutaneous coronary intervention]. / I pazienti di fronte alla decisione di sottoporsi ad angioplastica.

Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is a common procedure to treat coronary artery stenoses. Several studies had demonstrated that PCI does not reduce the risk of death or myocardial infarction when performed to patients with stable angina. However it has been observed that most patients believe that PCI will reduce their risk for death and myocardial infarction. On the other hand, cardiologists generally acknowledge the limitation of PCI according to the current literature.Cardiologists' decision to refer a patient to PCI is based on factors other then perceived benefits such as fear of missing a needed procedure, defensive medicine, desire of demonstrating their professional competence, vested professional and economic interests, accomplish patient expectation, the so called oculo-stenotic reflex, when a lesion is dilated regardless the clinical indication. Patients' misleading perception of harm and benefits of a procedure is mainly related to the cognitive dissonance, when individuals tend to reduce the conflict of an uncomfortable decision adopting information, which are likely to reduce their discomfort. Furthermore, patients believe that doing more means doing better, that technologic intervention are better than pharmacological treatment that in turn are better than doing nothing. Finally, they assume that a procedure is really effective since their physician suggested it.It should be emphasized that physicians and patients do not communicate successfully about key decision and how little we know about patient understanding of the factors that influence important medical care decisions. Although considerable attention is given to facilitating informed consent, patients' perceived benefits of elective PCI do not match existing evidence, as they overestimated both the benefits and urgency of their procedures. These findings suggest that an even greater effort at patient education is needed prior to elective PCI to facilitate fully informed decision-making.

Tolerability of carvedilol and ACE-Inhibition in mild heart failure. Results of CARMEN (Carvedilol ACE-Inhibitor Remodelling Mild CHF EvaluatioN).

BACKGROUND: Management guidelines for heart failure recommend ACE-I and beta-blockers. The perception of difficult up-titration might have added to the slow uptake of beta-blockers despite their mortality and morbidity benefits. AIMS: CARMEN offered a possibility to study safety and tolerability of enalapril against carvedilol and their combination. METHODS: Five hundred and seventy-two patients were blindly up-titrated on carvedilol (target 25 mg bid) and/or enalapril (target 10 mg bid), and continued for 18 months. In the combination arm, carvedilol was up-titrated before enalapril. RESULTS: There was no group related difference in adverse events during up-titration. Withdrawal rates were 31, 30 and 30%, and serious adverse events 28, 29 and 34% in the combination, carvedilol and enalapril arms. Mortality was similar in all groups (all-cause N=14, 14 and 14; cardiovascular N=9, 13 and 14). All-cause and cardiovascular hospitalizations occurred in 26, 27 and 32%, and in 12, 16 and 22% in the combination, carvedilol and enalapril arms, respectively. CONCLUSION: The safety profile was similar in all treatment arms. In contrast to common perception, there was no difference in tolerability between the ACE-I and carvedilol. This result is even more remarkable as the high prestudy use of ACE-I (65%) might have introduced a bias by selecting ACE-I tolerant patients, who were only switched from their former ACE-I to enalapril.

Evolution of case-mix in heart surgery: from mortality risk to complication risk.

During the last two decades despite an increase of the average preoperative mortality risk of patients referred to heart surgery a decrease of hospital mortality has been observed in many surgical institutions. The ratio between the increase of risk and the decrease of mortality could be defined as the 'risk paradox' for coronary surgery. Meanwhile an increase of the incidence of postoperative complications is leading to a longer stay in intensive care that involves a remarkable cost increase per single hospitalisation and a disproportionally long-term use of reanimation beds in those patients who survive the operation but have comorbidities complicating the postoperative course. This progressive change of the epidemiology of patients undergoing heart surgery is coupled with a progressive increase of costs. In the present review a comparison of stratification models developed to predict hospital mortality with those developed to predict prolonged stay in intensive care is discussed. Such predictions are not obviously aimed at deciding whether to operate a patient or not, but can be looked in managing high risk patients, e.g. by a daily monitoring and revision of their prognosis and relevant therapeutic choices, as well as in discussing with their relatives about whether to continue or not implacable treatments. After identifying the models, it is desirable that they are spread into professional Societies in order to sensitise field operators' awareness on the issue of proper intervention indications and on the opportunity of identifying those patients for whom an intervention is not to be advised and to whom propose medical or intervention treatments.