Earth history and the passerine superradiation.

Avian diversification has been influenced by global climate change, plate tectonic movements, and mass extinction events. However, the impact of these factors on the diversification of the hyperdiverse perching birds (passerines) is unclear because family level relationships are unresolved and the timing of splitting events among lineages is uncertain. We analyzed DNA data from 4,060 nuclear loci and 137 passerine families using concatenation and coalescent approaches to infer a comprehensive phylogenetic hypothesis that clarifies relationships among all passerine families. Then, we calibrated this phylogeny using 13 fossils to examine the effects of different events in Earth history on the timing and rate of passerine diversification. Our analyses reconcile passerine diversification with the fossil and geological records; suggest that passerines originated on the Australian landmass ∼47 Ma; and show that subsequent dispersal and diversification of passerines was affected by a number of climatological and geological events, such as Oligocene glaciation and inundation of the New Zealand landmass. Although passerine diversification rates fluctuated throughout the Cenozoic, we find no link between the rate of passerine diversification and Cenozoic global temperature, and our analyses show that the increases in passerine diversification rate we observe are disconnected from the colonization of new continents. Taken together, these results suggest more complex mechanisms than temperature change or ecological opportunity have controlled macroscale patterns of passerine speciation.

Extracting phylogenetic signal from phylogenomic data: Higher-level relationships of the nightbirds (Strisores).

A well-resolved phylogeny would facilitate study of adaptation to nocturnality in the avian superorder Strisores, a group that includes both nocturnal and diurnal lineages. Based on previous estimates, it could be hypothesized that there were multiple independent origins of nocturnality in this group. In order to refine the Strisores phylogeny, we generated genome-scale datasets of 2289-4243 ultraconserved elements for 23 taxa representing all major living lineages in the group. Among the considerations for using genome-scale, molecular sequence data in phylogenomic analyses are issues related to GC content, GC variance and their effects on model selection. In this study, we employed a variety of analytical techniques to empirically investigate those issues in our data, as well as biases and errors resulting from alignment trimming, taxon selection, matrix completeness and evolutionary rate variation among sites and across lineages. Extensive analyses revealed conflict within the data, especially in regard to variation in GC content, that would not have been detected by more cursory study. Our results indicate that readily available models of molecular evolution are insufficient to encapsulate all phenomena present in genome-scale matrices, and that this problem may be at the root of many current issues in phylogenomic analysis. The analytical methods employed in this study are relevant to phylogenomic analysis of any large, heterogeneous matrix. In conclusion, we present a strongly supported estimate of the Strisores tree, and discuss visual adaptations for, and potential evolutionary pathways to, nocturnality in this clade.

What are the roles of taxon sampling and model fit in tests of cyto-nuclear discordance using avian mitogenomic data?

Conflicts between nuclear and mitochondrial phylogenies have led to uncertainty for some relationships within the tree of life. These conflicts have led some to question the value of mitochondrial DNA in phylogenetics now that genome-scale nuclear data can be readily obtained. However, since mitochondrial DNA is maternally inherited and does not recombine, its phylogeny should be closer to the species tree. Additionally, its rapid evolutionary rate may drive accumulation of mutations along short internodes where relevant information from nuclear loci may be limited. In this study, we examine the mitochondrial phylogeny of Cavitaves to elucidate its congruence with recently published nuclear phylogenies of this group of birds. Cavitaves includes the orders Trogoniformes (trogons), Bucerotiformes (hornbills), Coraciiformes (kingfishers and allies), and Piciformes (woodpeckers and allies). We hypothesized that sparse taxon sampling in previously published mitochondrial trees was responsible for apparent cyto-nuclear discordance. To test this hypothesis, we assembled 27 additional Cavitaves mitogenomes and estimated phylogenies using seven different taxon sampling schemes ranging from five to 42 ingroup species. We also tested the role that partitioning and model choice played in the observed discordance. Our analyses demonstrated that improved taxon sampling could resolve many of the disagreements. Similarly, partitioning was valuable in improving congruence with the topology from nuclear phylogenies, though the model used to generate the mitochondrial phylogenies had less influence. Overall, our results suggest that the mitochondrial tree is trustworthy when partitioning is used with suitable taxon sampling.

Why Do Phylogenomic Data Sets Yield Conflicting Trees? Data Type Influences the Avian Tree of Life more than Taxon Sampling.

Phylogenomics, the use of large-scale data matrices in phylogenetic analyses, has been viewed as the ultimate solution to the problem of resolving difficult nodes in the tree of life. However, it has become clear that analyses of these large genomic data sets can also result in conflicting estimates of phylogeny. Here, we use the early divergences in Neoaves, the largest clade of extant birds, as a "model system" to understand the basis for incongruence among phylogenomic trees. We were motivated by the observation that trees from two recent avian phylogenomic studies exhibit conflicts. Those studies used different strategies: 1) collecting many characters [$\sim$ 42 mega base pairs (Mbp) of sequence data] from 48 birds, sometimes including only one taxon for each major clade; and 2) collecting fewer characters ($\sim$ 0.4 Mbp) from 198 birds, selected to subdivide long branches. However, the studies also used different data types: the taxon-poor data matrix comprised 68% non-coding sequences whereas coding exons dominated the taxon-rich data matrix. This difference raises the question of whether the primary reason for incongruence is the number of sites, the number of taxa, or the data type. To test among these alternative hypotheses we assembled a novel, large-scale data matrix comprising 90% non-coding sequences from 235 bird species. Although increased taxon sampling appeared to have a positive impact on phylogenetic analyses the most important variable was data type. Indeed, by analyzing different subsets of the taxa in our data matrix we found that increased taxon sampling actually resulted in increased congruence with the tree from the previous taxon-poor study (which had a majority of non-coding data) instead of the taxon-rich study (which largely used coding data). We suggest that the observed differences in the estimates of topology for these studies reflect data-type effects due to violations of the models used in phylogenetic analyses, some of which may be difficult to detect. If incongruence among trees estimated using phylogenomic methods largely reflects problems with model fit developing more "biologically-realistic" models is likely to be critical for efforts to reconstruct the tree of life. [Birds; coding exons; GTR model; model fit; Neoaves; non-coding DNA; phylogenomics; taxon sampling.].

Ongoing introgression of a secondary sexual plumage trait in a stable avian hybrid zone.

Hybrid zones are dynamic systems where natural selection, sexual selection, and other evolutionary forces can act on reshuffled combinations of distinct genomes. The movement of hybrid zones, individual traits, or both are of particular interest for understanding the interplay between selective processes. In a hybrid zone involving two lek-breeding birds, secondary sexual plumage traits of Manacus vitellinus, including bright yellow collar and olive belly color, have introgressed asymmetrically ~50 km across the genomic center of the zone into populations more genetically similar to Manacus candei. Males with yellow collars are preferred by females and are more aggressive than parental M. candei, suggesting that sexual selection was responsible for the introgression of male traits. We assessed the spatial and temporal dynamics of this hybrid zone using historical (1989 - 1994) and contemporary (2017 - 2020) transect samples to survey both morphological and genetic variation. Genome-wide SNP data and several male phenotypic traits show that the genomic center of the zone has remained spatially stable, whereas the olive belly color of male M. vitellinus has continued to introgress over this time period. Our data suggest that sexual selection can continue to shape phenotypes dynamically, independent of a stable genomic transition between species.

Evolution of the Growth Hormone Gene Duplication in Passerine Birds.

Birds of the order Passeriformes represent the most speciose order of land vertebrates. Despite strong scientific interest in this super-radiation, genetic traits unique to passerines are not well characterized. A duplicate copy of growth hormone (GH) is the only gene known to be present in all major lineages of passerines, but not in other birds. GH genes plausibly influence extreme life history traits that passerines exhibit, including the shortest embryo-to-fledging developmental period of any avian order. To unravel the implications of this GH duplication, we investigated the molecular evolution of the ancestral avian GH gene (GH or GH1) and the novel passerine GH paralog (GH2), using 497 gene sequences extracted from 342 genomes. Passerine GH1 and GH2 are reciprocally monophyletic, consistent with a single duplication event from a microchromosome onto a macrochromosome in a common ancestor of extant passerines. Additional chromosomal rearrangements have changed the syntenic and potential regulatory context of these genes. Both passerine GH1 and GH2 display substantially higher rates of nonsynonymous codon change than non-passerine avian GH, suggesting positive selection following duplication. A site involved in signal peptide cleavage is under selection in both paralogs. Other sites under positive selection differ between the two paralogs, but many are clustered in one region of a 3D model of the protein. Both paralogs retain key functional features and are actively but differentially expressed in two major passerine suborders. These phenomena suggest that GH genes may be evolving novel adaptive roles in passerine birds.

Hybrid zone or hybrid lineage: a genomic reevaluation of Sibley's classic species conundrum in Pipilo towhees.

Hybrid zones can be studied by modeling clines of trait variation (e.g., morphology, genetics) over a linear transect. Yet, hybrid zones can also be spatially complex, can shift over time, and can even lead to the formation of hybrid lineages with the right combination of dispersal and vicariance. We reassessed Sibley's (1950) gradient between Collared Towhee (Pipilo ocai) and Spotted Towhee (Pipilo maculatus) in Central Mexico to test whether it conformed to a typical tension-zone cline model. By comparing historical and modern data, we found that cline centers for genetic and phenotypic traits have not shifted over the course of 70 years. This equilibrium suggests that secondary contact between these species, which originally diverged over 2 million years ago, likely dates to the Pleistocene. Given the amount of mtDNA divergence, parental ends of the cline have very low autosomal nuclear differentiation (FST = 0.12). Dramatic and coincident cline shifts in mtDNA and throat color suggest the possibility of sexual selection as a factor in differential introgression, while a contrasting cline shift in green back color hints at a role for natural selection. Supporting the idea of a continuum between clinal variation and hybrid lineage formation, the towhee gradient can be analyzed as one population under isolation-by-distance, as a two-population cline, and as three lineages experiencing divergence with gene flow. In the middle of the gradient, a hybrid lineage has become partly isolated, likely due to forested habitat shrinking and fragmenting as it moved upslope after the last glacial maximum and a stark environmental transition. This towhee system offers a window into the potential outcomes of hybridization across a dynamic landscape including the creation of novel genomic and phenotypic combinations and incipient hybrid lineages.

Dental and Maxillofacial Cone Beam CT-High Number of Incidental Findings and Their Impact on Follow-Up and Therapy Management.

Cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) is increasingly used for dental and maxillofacial imaging. The occurrence of incidental findings has been reported, but clinical implications of these findings remain unclear. The study's aim was to identify the frequency and clinical impact of incidental findings in CBCT. A total of 374 consecutive CBCT examinations of a 3 year period were retrospectively evaluated for the presence, kind, and clinical relevance of incidental findings. In a subgroup of 54 patients, therapeutic consequences of CBCT incidental findings were queried from the referring physicians. A total of 974 incidental findings were detected, involving 78.6% of all CBCT, hence 2.6 incidental findings per CBCT. Of these, 38.6% were classified to require treatment, with an additional 25.2% requiring follow-up. Incidental findings included dental pathologies in 55.3%, pathologies of the paranasal sinuses and airways in 29.2%, osseous pathologies in 14.9% of all CBCT, and findings in the soft tissue or TMJ in few cases. Clinically relevant dental incidental findings were detected significantly more frequently in CBCT for implant planning compared to other indications (60.7% vs. 43.2%, p < 0.01), and in CBCT with an FOV ≥ 100 mm compared to an FOV < 100 mm (54.7% vs. 40.0%, p < 0.01). Similar results were obtained for paranasal incidental findings. In a subgroup analysis, 29 of 54 patients showed incidental findings which were previously unknown, and the findings changed therapeutical management in 19 patients (35%). The results of our study highlighted the importance of a meticulous analysis of the entire FOV of CBCT for incidental findings, which showed clinical relevance in more than one in three patients. Due to a high number of clinically relevant incidental findings especially in CBCT for implant planning, an FOV of 100 × 100 mm covering both the mandible and the maxilla was concluded to be recommendable for this indication.

A novel exome probe set captures phototransduction genes across birds (Aves) enabling efficient analysis of vision evolution.

The diversity of avian visual phenotypes provides a framework for studying mechanisms of trait diversification generally, and the evolution of vertebrate vision, specifically. Previous research has focused on opsins, but to fully understand visual adaptation, we must study the complete phototransduction cascade (PTC). Here, we developed a probe set that captures exonic regions of 46 genes representing the PTC and other light responses. For a subset of species, we directly compared gene capture between our probe set and low-coverage whole genome sequencing (WGS), and we discuss considerations for choosing between these methods. Finally, we developed a unique strategy to avoid chimeric assembly by using "decoy" reference sequences. We successfully captured an average of 64% of our targeted exome in 46 species across 14 orders using the probe set and had similar recovery using the WGS data. Compared to WGS or transcriptomes, our probe set: (1) reduces sequencing requirements by efficiently capturing vision genes, (2) employs a simpler bioinformatic pipeline by limiting required assembly and negating annotation, and (3) eliminates the need for fresh tissues, enabling researchers to leverage existing museum collections. We then utilized our vision exome data to identify positively selected genes in two evolutionary scenarios-evolution of night vision in nocturnal birds and evolution of high-speed vision specific to manakins (Pipridae). We found parallel positive selection of SLC24A1 in both scenarios, implicating the alteration of rod response kinetics, which could improve color discrimination in dim light conditions and/or facilitate higher temporal resolution.

Homoplastic microinversions and the avian tree of life.

BACKGROUND: Microinversions are cytologically undetectable inversions of DNA sequences that accumulate slowly in genomes. Like many other rare genomic changes (RGCs), microinversions are thought to be virtually homoplasy-free evolutionary characters, suggesting that they may be very useful for difficult phylogenetic problems such as the avian tree of life. However, few detailed surveys of these genomic rearrangements have been conducted, making it difficult to assess this hypothesis or understand the impact of microinversions upon genome evolution. RESULTS: We surveyed non-coding sequence data from a recent avian phylogenetic study and found substantially more microinversions than expected based upon prior information about vertebrate inversion rates, although this is likely due to underestimation of these rates in previous studies. Most microinversions were lineage-specific or united well-accepted groups. However, some homoplastic microinversions were evident among the informative characters. Hemiplasy, which reflects differences between gene trees and the species tree, did not explain the observed homoplasy. Two specific loci were microinversion hotspots, with high numbers of inversions that included both the homoplastic as well as some overlapping microinversions. Neither stem-loop structures nor detectable sequence motifs were associated with microinversions in the hotspots. CONCLUSIONS: Microinversions can provide valuable phylogenetic information, although power analysis indicates that large amounts of sequence data will be necessary to identify enough inversions (and similar RGCs) to resolve short branches in the tree of life. Moreover, microinversions are not perfect characters and should be interpreted with caution, just as with any other character type. Independent of their use for phylogenetic analyses, microinversions are important because they have the potential to complicate alignment of non-coding sequences. Despite their low rate of accumulation, they have clearly contributed to genome evolution, suggesting that active identification of microinversions will prove useful in future phylogenomic studies.

Phylogenomic evidence for multiple losses of flight in ratite birds.

Ratites (ostriches, emus, rheas, cassowaries, and kiwis) are large, flightless birds that have long fascinated biologists. Their current distribution on isolated southern land masses is believed to reflect the breakup of the paleocontinent of Gondwana. The prevailing view is that ratites are monophyletic, with the flighted tinamous as their sister group, suggesting a single loss of flight in the common ancestry of ratites. However, phylogenetic analyses of 20 unlinked nuclear genes reveal a genome-wide signal that unequivocally places tinamous within ratites, making ratites polyphyletic and suggesting multiple losses of flight. Phenomena that can mislead phylogenetic analyses, including long branch attraction, base compositional bias, discordance between gene trees and species trees, and sequence alignment errors, have been eliminated as explanations for this result. The most plausible hypothesis requires at least three losses of flight and explains the many morphological and behavioral similarities among ratites by parallel or convergent evolution. Finally, this phylogeny demands fundamental reconsideration of proposals that relate ratite evolution to continental drift.

Sexual Selection and Introgression in Avian Hybrid Zones: Spotlight on Manacus.

Hybrid zones offer a window into the processes and outcomes of evolution, from species formation or fusion to genomic underpinnings of specific traits and isolating mechanisms. Sexual selection is believed to be an important factor in speciation processes, and hybrid zones present special opportunities to probe its impact. The manakins (Aves, Pipridae) are a promising group in which to study the interplay of sexual selection and natural hybridization: they show substantial variation across the family in the strength of sexual selection they experience, they readily hybridize within and between genera, and they appear to have formed hybrid species, a rare event in birds. A hybrid zone between two manakins in the genus Manacus is unusual in that plumage and behavioral traits of one species have introgressed asymmetrically into populations of the second species through positive sexual selection, then apparently stalled at a river barrier. This is one of a handful of documented examples of asymmetric sexual trait introgression with a known selective mechanism. It offers opportunities to examine reproductive isolation, introgression, plumage color evolution, and natural factors enhancing or constraining the effects of sexual selection in real time. Here, we review previous work in this system, propose new hypotheses for observed patterns, and recommend approaches to test them.

A multi-gene estimate of phylogeny in the nightjars and nighthawks (Caprimulgidae).

Caprimulgidae is a cosmopolitan family of nocturnal and crepuscular insectivorous birds comprising the nightjars, nighthawks, and relatives. Sexual selection and convergence or parallelism in plumage and behavior have made it difficult to discern evolutionary relationships in this group. In order to provide a framework for comparative studies of this family, a molecular phylogeny was reconstructed using mitochondrial cytochrome b, and nuclear c-myc and growth hormone DNA sequences. Likelihood, parsimony and Bayesian analyses agree in placing Eurostopodus species and Caprimulgus enarratus, a Malagasy endemic, as the earliest branches of the tree. The remaining taxa are divided among four well-supported clades, three in the New World and one in the Old World. Insertion/deletion events, common in non-coding sequences, provide additional support in resolving the phylogeny. Neither of the traditional subfamilies, Caprimulginae (nightjars) and Chordeilinae (nighthawks), is monophyletic, suggesting that the morphological specializations characterizing "nighthawks" evolved multiple times and the "nightjar" body plan is an old and conservative one. The large genus Caprimulgus is polyphyletic with respect to many other genera in the family, which are often defined by derived plumage traits that likely reflect sexual selection or ecological specialization. A taxonomic revision of the family is proposed based on the combined tree, including naming a new genus for C. enarratus.

Comment on "Female toads engaging in adaptive hybridization prefer high-quality heterospecifics as mates".

Chen and Pfennig (Reports, 20 March 2020, p. 1377) analyze the fitness consequences of hybridization in toads but do not account for differences in survival among progeny. Apparent fitness effects depend on families with anomalously low survival, yet survival is crucial to evolutionary fitness. This and other analytical shortcomings demonstrate that a conclusion of adaptive mate choice is not yet justified.

Opening the door to greater phylogeographic inference in Southeast Asia: Comparative genomic study of five codistributed rainforest bird species using target capture and historical DNA.

Indochina and Sundaland are biologically diverse, interconnected regions of Southeast Asia with complex geographic histories. Few studies have examined phylogeography of bird species that span the two regions because of inadequate population sampling. To determine how geographic barriers/events and disparate dispersal potential have influenced the population structure, gene flow, and demographics of species that occupy the entire area, we studied five largely codistributed rainforest bird species: Arachnothera longirostra, Irena puella, Brachypodius atriceps, Niltava grandis, and Stachyris nigriceps. We accomplished relatively thorough sampling and data collection by sequencing ultraconserved elements (UCEs) using DNA extracted from modern and older (historical) specimens. We obtained a genome-wide set of 753-4,501 variable loci and 3,919-18,472 single nucleotide polymorphisms. The formation of major within-species lineages occurred within a similar span of time (0.5-1.5 mya). Major patterns in population genetic structure are largely consistent with the dispersal potential and habitat requirements of the study species. A population break across the Isthmus of Kra was shared only by the two hill/submontane insectivores (N. grandis and S. nigriceps). Across Sundaland, there is little structure in B. atriceps, which is a eurytopic and partially frugivorous species that often utilizes forest edges. Two other eurytopic species, A. longirostra and I. puella, possess highly divergent populations in peripheral Sunda Islands (Java and/or Palawan) and India. These species probably possess intermediate dispersal abilities that allowed them to colonize new areas, and then remained largely isolated subsequently. We also observed an east-west break in Indochina that was shared by B. atriceps and S. nigriceps, species with very different habitat requirements and dispersal potential. By analyzing high-throughput DNA data, our study provides an unprecedented comparative perspective on the process of avian population divergence across Southeast Asia, a process that is determined by geography, species characteristics, and the stochastic nature of dispersal and vicariance events.

Duplication of accelerated evolution and growth hormone gene in passerine birds.

We report the discovery of a duplication of the growth hormone (GH) gene in a major group of birds, the passerines (Aves: Passeriformes). Phylogenetic analysis of 1.3-kb partial DNA sequences of GH genes for 24 species of passerines and numerous outgroups indicates that the duplication occurred in the ancestral lineage of extant passerines. Both duplicates and their open-reading frames are preserved throughout the passerine clade, and both duplicates are expressed in the zebra finch brain, suggesting that both are likely to be functional. The estimated rates of amino acid evolution are more than 10-fold higher in passerine GH genes than in those of their closest nonpasserine relatives. In addition, although the 84 codons sequenced are generally highly conserved for both passerines and nonpasserines, comparisons of the nonsynonymous/synonymous substitution ratios and the rate of predicted amino acid changes indicate that the 2 gene duplicates are evolving under different selective pressures and may be functionally divergent. The evidence of differential selection, coupled with the preservation of both gene copies in all major lineages since the origin of passerines, suggests that the duplication may be of adaptive significance, with possible implications for the explosive diversification of the passerine clade.

The effect of marker choice on estimated levels of introgression across an avian (Pipridae: Manacus) hybrid zone.

Hybrid zones are often characterized by narrow, coincident clines for diverse traits, suggesting that little introgression occurs across them. However, this pattern may result from a bias in focussing on traits that are diagnostic of parental populations. Such choice of highly differentiated traits may cause us to overlook differential introgression in nondiagnostic traits and to distort our perception of hybrid zones. We tested this hypothesis in an avian hybrid zone by comparing cline structure in two sets of molecular markers: isozyme and restriction fragment length polymorphism markers chosen for differentiation between parental forms, and microsatellite markers chosen for polymorphism. Two cline-fitting methods showed that cline centre positions of microsatellite alleles were more variable than those of isozyme and restriction fragment length polymorphism markers, and several were significantly shifted from those of the diagnostic markers. Cline widths of microsatellite alleles were also variable and two- to eightfold wider than those of the diagnostic markers. These patterns are consistent with the idea that markers chosen for differentiation are more likely to be under purifying selection, and studies focussed on these markers will underestimate overall introgression across hybrid zones. Our results suggest that neutral and positively selected alleles may introgress freely across many hybrid zones without altering perceived boundaries between hybridizing forms.

A molecular phylogenetic survey of caprimulgiform nightbirds illustrates the utility of non-coding sequences.

The order Caprimulgiformes comprises five bird families adapted to nocturnal activity. The order has been regarded as monophyletic, but recent evidence suggests that swifts and hummingbirds (Apodiformes) belong within it. To explore the group's phylogeny, we obtained more than 2000 bp of DNA sequence from the cytochrome b and c-myc genes for 35 taxa, representing all major lineages and outgroups. Non-coding sequences of the c-myc gene were unsaturated, readily alignable and contained numerous informative insertions and deletions (indels), signalling broad utility for higher level phylogenetics. A 12 bp insertion in c-myc links Apodiformes with owlet-nightjars, confirming paraphyly of the traditional Caprimulgiformes. However, even this rare genomic change is homoplasious when all birds are considered. Monophyly of each of the five traditional families was strongly confirmed, but relationships among families were poorly resolved. The tree structure argues against family status for Eurostopodus and Batrachostomus, which should be retained in Caprimulgidae and Podargidae, respectively. The genus Caprimulgus and both subfamilies of Caprimulgidae appear to be polyphyletic. The phylogeny elucidates the evolution of adaptive traits such as nocturnality and hypothermia, but whether nocturnality evolved once or multiple times is an open question.

How to deal with ground truthing affected by human-induced habitat change?: Identifying high-quality habitats for the Critically Endangered Red Siskin.

Species distribution models (SDM) can be valuable for identifying key habitats for conservation management of threatened taxa, but anthropogenic habitat change can undermine SDM accuracy. We used data for the Red Siskin (Spinus cucullatus), a critically endangered bird and ground truthing to examine anthropogenic habitat change as a source of SDM inaccuracy. We aimed to estimate: (1) the Red Siskin's historic distribution in Venezuela; (2) the portion of this historic distribution lost to vegetation degradation; and (3) the location of key habitats or areas with both, a high probability of historic occurrence and a low probability of vegetation degradation. We ground-truthed 191 locations and used expert opinion as well as landscape characteristics to classify species' habitat suitability as excellent, good, acceptable, or poor. We fit a Random Forest model (RF) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) time series to evaluate the accuracy and precision of the expert categorization of habitat suitability. We estimated the probability of historic occurrence by fitting a MaxLike model using 88 presence records (1960-2013) and data on forest cover and aridity index. Of the entire study area, 23% (20,696 km2) had a historic probability of Red Siskin occurrence over 0.743. Furthermore, 85% of ground-truthed locations had substantial reductions in mean EVI, resulting in key habitats totaling just 976 km2, in small blocks in the western and central regions. Decline in Area of Occupancy over 15 years was between 40% and 95%, corresponding to an extinction risk category between Vulnerable and Critically Endangered. Relating key habitats with other landscape features revealed significant risks and opportunities for proposed conservation interventions, including the fact that ongoing vegetation degradation could limit the establishment of reintroduced populations in eastern areas, while the conservation of remaining key habitats on private lands could be improved with biodiversity-friendly agri- and silviculture programs.