Using multi-event hydrologic and hydraulic signatures from water level sensors to diagnose locations of uncertainty in integrated urban drainage models used in living digital twins.

Digital twins of urban drainage systems require simulation models that can adequately replicate the physical system. All models have their limitations, and it is important to investigate when and where simulation results are acceptable and to communicate the level of performance transparently to end users. This paper first defines a classification of four possible 'locations of uncertainty' in integrated urban drainage models. It then develops a structured framework for identifying and diagnosing various types of errors. This framework compares model outputs with in-sewer water level observations based on hydrologic and hydraulic signatures. The approach is applied on a real case study in Odense, Denmark, with examples from three different system sites: a typical manhole, a small flushing chamber, and an internal overflow structure. This allows diagnosing different model errors ranging from issues in the underlying asset database and missing hydrologic processes to limitations in the model software implementation. Structured use of signatures is promising for continuous, iterative improvements of integrated urban drainage models. It also provides a transparent way to communicate the level of model adequacy to end users.

[Treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder in people with intellectual disability]. / Behandeling van posttraumatische stressstoornis bij mensen met een laag IQ.

BACKGROUND: Patients with borderline intellectual functioning (BIF) or intellectual disability (ID) are more likely to develop post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, co-occurrence of BIF/ID and PTSD symptoms often leads to exclusion for treatment in regular mental health care centers.
AIM: To determine whether standard treatment programs for PTSD can be used in the treatment of patients with BIF/ID.
METHOD: Qualitative review of good practices, scientific literature and recent reports about BIF, ID and PTSD.
RESULTS: Literature on evidence-based treatment programs for PTSD suggests that there is no need to be reluctant in starting treatment in patients with BIF/ID. Adjustment of communication and tempo is recommended.
CONCLUSION: There is reason to believe that standard treatment can be used in treating patients with a low IQ. More research to confirm this assumption is necessary, taken into account the size of this patient group.

Prediction models for mortality in adult patients visiting the Emergency Department: a systematic review.

We provide a systematic overview of literature on prediction models for mortality in the Emergency Department (ED). We searched various databases for observational studies in the ED or similar setting describing prediction models for short-term mortality (up to 30 days or in-hospital mortality) in a non-trauma population. We used the CHARMS-checklist for quality assessment. We found a total of 14.768 articles and included 17 articles, describing 22 models. Model performance ranged from AUC 0.63-0.93. Most articles had a moderate risk of bias in one or more domains. The full model and PARIS model performed best, but are not yet ready for implementation. There is a need for validation studies to compare multiple prediction models and to evaluate their accuracy.

Essential diseases in prescribing: A national Delphi study towards a core curriculum in pharmacotherapy education.

AIMS: Prescribing is a core skill for junior doctors, yet 8-10% of their prescriptions contain errors. To ensure adequate training in prescribing, it is important to define the diseases for which junior doctors should be competent to prescribe. The aim of the present study was therefore to identify the essential diseases in prescribing for junior doctors. METHODS: A two-round Delphi consensus study was conducted among medical specialists, general practitioners, junior doctors, pharmacists and pharmacotherapy teachers from all eight academic hospitals in the Netherlands. Using a five-point Likert scale, the participants indicated for each item on an initial questionnaire whether it should be considered an essential disease for junior doctors. The items for which ≥80% of all respondents agreed or strongly agreed were accepted as essential diseases. RESULTS: Sixty-two participants completed the Delphi survey. In total, 63 of 220 items were considered to be essential diseases. CONCLUSION: This is the first Delphi consensus study identifying exact conditions that junior doctors must be able to prescribe for. The essential diseases can be used for training in prescribing and assessment of junior doctors' prescribing competence.

[The associations between God representations and suicidality among Christian patients with a major depressive disorder]. / De relatie tussen godsrepresentaties en suïcidaliteit bij christelijke patiënten met een depressieve stoornis.

BACKGROUND: Depression strongly increases the risk of suicide. Religion is described as a protective factor against suicide. Considering the emotional blunting associated with depression, it is important to investigate the affective dimension of religion. This dimension is conveyed in God representations.
AIM: To describe what types of God representation occur among Christian patients with major depressive disorder and to determine whether there is a relationship between types of God representation and suicide.
METHOD: Clinical and outpatients with a major depressive disorder (n=155) completed the Questionnaire God Representations and the Paykel Suicide Items. A k-means cluster analysis is applied to examine which types of God representations occur among depressed patients. Whether there is a relationship between the different God representations and suicide is examined by applying a linear regression analysis.
RESULTS: Depressed patients uphold two types of God representation: a positive type (n=82) with positive feelings towards God and where God was experienced as supportive, and a negative type (n=73) with anger and anxiety towards God and where God was experienced as passive. Patients with a negative type of God representation scored significantly higher on suicidality. The severity of depression was the main predictor of suicidality, but God representations were also related with a 4% increase in the explained variance.
CONCLUSION: In Christian patients with major depressive disorder a negative and a positive God representation emerged. Patients with a negative God representation mainly seem to feel abandoned by God. The suicidality is significantly increased in patients with a negative God representation, however, the increase in the proportion of the explained variance is small.

Hyperbaric oxygen for the treatment of diabetic foot ulcers: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: A systematic review of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) to assess the additional value of hyperbaric oxygen therapy (HBOT) in promoting the healing of diabetic foot ulcers and preventing amputations was performed. METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were searched to identify RCTs in patients with diabetic foot ulcers published up to August 2013. Eligible studies reported the effectiveness of adjunctive HBOT with regard to wound healing, amputations, and additional interventions. RESULTS: Seven of the 669 identified articles met the inclusion criteria, comprising 376 patients. Three trials included 182 patients with ischaemic ulcers, two trials studied 64 patients with non-ischaemic ulcers, and two trials comprising 130 patients did not specify ulcer type. Two trials were of good methodological quality. Pooling of data was deemed inappropriate because of heterogeneity. Two RCTs in patients with ischaemic ulcers found increased rates of complete healing at 1-year follow-up (number needed to treat (NNT) 1.8 (95% CI: 1.1 to 4.6) and 4.1 (95% CI: 2.3 to 19)), but found no difference in amputation rates. A third trial in ischaemic ulcers found significantly lower major amputation rates in patients with HBOT (NNT 4.2, 95% CI: 2.4 to 17), but did not report on wound healing. None of the RCTs in non-ischaemic ulcers reported differences in wound healing or amputation rates. Two trials with unknown ulcer types reported beneficial effects on amputation rates, although the largest trial used a different definition for both outcomes. HBOT did not influence the need for additional interventions. CONCLUSION: Current evidence shows some evidence of the effectiveness of HBOT in improving the healing of diabetic leg ulcers in patients with concomitant ischaemia. Larger trials of higher quality are needed before implementation of HBOT in routine clinical practice in patients with diabetic foot ulcers can be justified.

The influence of vertically and horizontally aligned visual distractors on aurally guided saccadic eye movements.

Eye movements towards a new target can be guided or disrupted by input from multiple modalities. The degree of oculomotor competition evoked by a distractor depends on both distractor and target properties, such as distractor salience or certainty regarding the target location. The ability to localize the target is particularly important when studying saccades made towards auditory targets, since determination of elevation and azimuth of a sound are based on different processes, and these processes may be affected independently by a distractor. We investigated the effects of a visual distractor on saccadic eye movements made to an auditory target in a two-dimensional plane. Results showed that the competition evoked by a vertical visual distractor was stronger compared with a horizontal visual distractor. The eye movements that were not captured by the vertical visual distractor were still influenced by it: a deviation of endpoints was seen in the direction of the visual distractor. Furthermore, the interference evoked by a high-contrast visual distractor was stronger compared with low-contrast visual stimuli, which was reflected by a faster initiation of an eye movement towards the high-contrast visual distractor and a stronger shift of endpoints in the direction of the high-contrast visual distractor. Together, these findings show that the influence of a visual distractor on aurally guided eye movements depends strongly on its location relative to the target, and to a lesser extent, on stimulus contrast.

The role of limb perfusion studies in the paediatric ischaemic limb.

OBJECTIVES: To study the use of limb perfusion scans in children with limb-threatening ischaemia and determine whether such scans are helpful in making clinical decisions. METHODS: This retrospective study compared the clinical, scan and surgical findings in children who had limb perfusion scans for critical limb ischaemia at Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital, Cape Town, South Africa, from July 2001 to December 2010. Records were reviewed and the data analysed for aetiology, clinical findings, limb perfusion results, operative findings and outcome. RESULTS: There were complete clinical and scan records for 20/22 patients, aged 1 month to 12 years. The causes of limb ischaemia were meningococcal septicaemia (n = 9), septic shock (n = 6), hypovolaemic shock due to gastroenteritis (n = 4), and electrical burns (n = 1). The clinical, scan and surgical findings correlated in 40/48 imaged limbs. In one leg the findings did not correlate, but the perfusion scan results predicted the outcome. In the remaining seven cases the exact correlation was uncertain owing to technical difficulties or absent operative notes. CONCLUSION: This study describes a method for performing limb perfusion studies in children. Limb perfusion studies correlated well with surgical findings. These studies were useful in treatment decisions, parent and patient counselling and surgical planning. They supplemented clinical examination in assessment of the children.

Intratumor genetic heterogeneity and head and neck cancer relapse.

BACKGROUND: Head and neck squamous cell carcinomas are treated by surgery, radiotherapy (RT), chemoradiotherapy (CRT) or combinations thereof, but locoregional recurrences (LRs) occur in 30-40% of treated patients. We have previously shown that in approximately half of the LRs after CRT, cancer driver mutations are not shared with the index tumor. AIM: To investigate two possible explanations for these genetically unrelated relapses, treatment-induced genetic changes and intratumor genetic heterogeneity. METHODS: To investigate treatment-induced clonal DNA changes, we compared copy number alterations (CNAs) and mutations between primary and recurrent xenografted tumors after treatment with (C)RT. Intratumor genetic heterogeneity was studied by multi-region sequencing on DNA from 31 biopsies of 11 surgically treated tumors. RESULTS: Induction of clonal DNA changes by (C)RT was not observed in the xenograft models. Multi-region sequencing demonstrated variations in CNA profiles between paired biopsies of individual tumors, with copy number heterogeneity scores varying from 0.027 to 0.333. In total, 32 cancer driver mutations could be identified and were shared in all biopsies of each tumor. Remarkably, multi-clonal mutations in these same cancer driver genes were observed in 6 of 11 tumors. Genetically distinct heterogeneous cell cultures could also be established from single tumors, with different biomarker profiles and drug sensitivities. CONCLUSION: Intratumor genetic heterogeneity at the level of the cancer driver mutations might explain the discordant mutational profiles in LRs after CRT, while there are no indications in xenograft models that these changes are induced by CRT.

Utility of the BioFire® FilmArray® Pneumonia Panel plus assay for syndromic testing of lower respiratory tract infections in a low/middle-income setting.

Background: Determining lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) aetiology is complex. Culture-based methods are laborious with poor sensitivity. Molecular assays improve detection of potential pathogens, but incorrect interpretation of results may lead to inappropriate antimicrobial therapy. Methods: The utility of the BioFire® FilmArray® Pneumonia Panel plus (FA-PP) to detect LRTI pathogens, and the potential impact on antimicrobial stewardship in a low-resource setting, were assessed. Routine LRT samples were included from adult patients with clinically suspected LRTI or with a concomitant blood culture at Groote Schuur Hospital and referring facilities. Culture and FA-PP results were compared, and pharmacy data analysed to determine appropriateness of antibiotic therapy. Results: There was an 80% correlation between cultured LRTI pathogens and the FA-PP bin ≥107 results. Compared with culture, the FA-PP detected substantially more pathogens (86.6% versus 17.9%) and produced a combined 100% positive percent agreement, and 88% negative percent agreement. The FA-PP detected bacterial/viral coinfections in 27% of samples. Correlation of FA-PP results with pharmacy data (n = 69) indicated a potential antibiotic change in 75% of cases, but this is difficult to accurately characterize without a 'gold standard' for treatment or complete clinical data. Conclusions: The FA-PP increased the number of positive samples with typical bacteria, but the semi-quantitative reporting algorithm does not describe the correlation between the different bin values and colonization versus infection. This complicates result interpretation and may lead to inappropriate antimicrobial treatment. This study highlights the potential positive impact of rapid molecular assays for routine care in lower-income settings, but also underscores the interpretive challenges associated with these tests.

High-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) E6/E7 mRNA testing by PreTect HPV-Proofer for detection of cervical high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia and cancer among hrHPV DNA-positive women with normal cytology.

Our aim was to investigate whether high-risk HPV (hrHPV) mRNA detection by PreTect HPV-Proofer can be used to stratify hrHPV DNA-positive women of different cytology classes for risk of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia or worse (cervical precancer or cancer, i.e., cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or higher [≥ CIN2]). A total of 375 women participating in population-based screening, with a GP5+/6+-PCR hrHPV DNA-positive cervical scrape with normal cytology (n = 202), borderline or mild dyskaryosis (BMD) (n = 88), or moderate dyskaryosis or worse (>BMD) (n = 85), were enrolled. Cervical scrapes were additionally subjected to HPV16/18/31/33/45 E6/E7 mRNA analysis by PreTect HPV-Proofer (mRNA test). Referral and follow-up policies were based on cytology, hrHPV DNA, and mRNA testing. The primary study endpoint was the number of ≥CIN2 detected within 3 years of follow-up. The mRNA positivity increased with the severity of cytological abnormality, ranging from 32% (64/202) in hrHPV DNA-positive women with normal cytology to 47% (41/88) in BMD and 68% (58/85) in >BMD groups (P < 0.01). Women with ≥ CIN2 were more likely to test positive by mRNA test (63%) than women without evidence of ≥ CIN2 (32%; P < 0.01). A positive mRNA test result conferred an increased ≥ CIN2 risk in hrHPV DNA-positive women with normal cytology, i.e., 0.55 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.34 to 0.76) in mRNA-positive versus 0.20 (95% CI, 0.07 to 0.33) in mRNA-negative women. In hrHPV DNA-positive women with BMD or >BMD, the result of the mRNA test did not influence the ≥ CIN2 risk. In conclusion, mRNA testing by PreTect HPV-Proofer might be of value to select hrHPV DNA-positive women with normal cytology in need of immediate referral for colposcopy.

Guideline summary: appropriate use of tigecycline.

Tigecycline, the first of a new class of broad-spectrum antibiotics (the glycylcyclines), has been licensed in South Africa for the parenteral treatment of adult patients with complicated intra-abdominal infections (cIAIs) and complicated skin and soft-tissue infections (cSSTIs). This article serves as a summary of the guideline on the appropriate use of tigecycline, published in mid-2010 as a collaborative effort by representatives of the Association of Surgeons of South Africa, the Critical Care Society of Southern Africa, the Federation of Infectious Diseases Societies of Southern Africa, the South African Thoracic Society and the Trauma Society of South Africa.

Tetra-µ(3)-hydroxido-tetra-kis-[tricarbonyl-rhenium(I)] pyridine tetra-solvate.

The title compound, [Re(4)(µ(3)-OH)(4)(CO)(12)]·4C(5)H(5)N, crystallizes with one tetranuclear rhenium(I) cubane-like molecule and four pyridine mol-ecules in the asymmetric unit. The coordination environment of each Re(I) atom is distorted octahedral. Four intra-molecular O-H⋯N and four inter-molecular C-H⋯O hydrogen-bond inter-actions are observed. Relatively strong hydrogen bonds are found between the hydrogen-bond donor (µ(3)-OH) and acceptor (basic N atom of pyridine), with N⋯O distances between 2.586 (10) and 2.628 (10) Å. Inter-cube distances of 9.873 (2) and 12.376 (3) Šare observed.

Transplant Unit, Division of General Surgery, Department of Surgery, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, South Africa.

Organ and tissue donation depends on non-transplant clinicians to identify and timeously refer potential donors and to counsel families compassionately about the prognosis at end of life. Organ donation referral is often felt to be beyond the capacity of district-level hospital services. In this case series, we report on four referrals from a geographically remote, public sector district-level hospital, and review the identification, referral and consent process of potential donors after brain death, and also donors after circulatory death. For the one successfully consented donor we report on the donor work-up and management, and the outcome of the organ recovery and organ allocation process.

Improving primary care antimicrobial stewardship by implementing a peer audit and feedback intervention in Cape Town community healthcare centres.

BACKGROUND: The increasing prevalence of antibiotic resistance is a major threat to public health. Primary care, where 80% of antibiotics are consumed, is a pivotal setting to direct antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) efforts. However, the ideal model to improve antibiotic prescribing in primary care in low-resource settings is not known. OBJECTIVE: To implement a multidisciplinary audit and feedback AMS intervention with the aim to improve appropriate antibiotic prescribing at primary care level. METHODS: The intervention was implemented and monitored in 10 primary care centres of the Cape Town metropole between July 2017 and June 2019. The primary and secondary outcome measures were monthly adherence to a bundle of antibiotic quality process measures and monthly antibiotic consumption, respectively. Multidisciplinary audit and feedback meetings were initiated and integrated into facility clinical meetings. Two Excel tools were utilised to automatically calculate facility audit scores and consumption. Once a month, 10 antibiotic prescriptions were randomly selected for a peer review audit by the team. The prescriptions were audited for adherence to a bundle of seven antibiotic process measures using the standard treatment guidelines (STG) and Essential Medicines List (EML) as standard. Concurrently, primary care pharmacists monitored monthly antibiotic consumption by calculating defined daily doses (DDDs) per 100 prescriptions dispensed. Adherence and consumption feedback were regularly provided to the facilities. Learning collaboratives involving representative multidisciplinary teams were held twice-yearly. Pre-, baseline and post-intervention periods were defined as 6 months before, first 6 months and last 6 months of the study, respectively. RESULTS: The mean overall adherence increased from 19% (baseline) to 47% (post intervention) (p<0.001). Of the 2 077 prescriptions analysed, 33.7% had an antibiotic prescribed inappropriately. No diagnosis had been captured in patient notes, and the antibiotic chosen was not according to the STG and EML in 30.1% and 31.7% of cases, respectively. Seasonal variation was observed in prescribing adherence, with significantly lower adherence in winter and spring months (adjusted odds ratio 0.60). A reduction of 12.9 DDDs between the pre- and post-intervention periods (p=0.0084) was documented, which represented a 19.3% decrease in antibiotic consumption. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrated that peer reviewed audit and feedback is an effective AMS intervention to improve antibiotic prescribing in primary care in a low-resource setting. The intervention, utilising existing resources and involving multidisciplinary engagement, may be incorporated into existing quality improvement processes at facility level, to ensure sustainable change.

Statement on analysis and interpretation of clinical human gastrointestinal microbiome testing using next-generation sequencing in South Africa.

Advances in DNA sequencing technologies and computational tools over the past few years have led to vast improvements in the metagenomic analysis of the human microbiota. While this has also significantly improved our understanding of the role of the host-microbiome interaction in health and disease, the current clinical expectation is that testing, particularly of the gastrointestinal biome, can be used to diagnose, manage and treat patients. The authors outline the available technologies and highlight current limitations of these techniques to address this clinical demand. Through understanding the limitations of and need for more research and data collection, one can improve the appropriate utilisation and interpretation, as well as the current rational clinical application of these techniques.

Using ceftazidime-avibactam for persistent carbapenem-resistant Serratia marcescens infection highlights antimicrobial stewardship challenges with new beta-lactam-inhibitor combination antibiotics.

The newer beta-lactam-inhibitor combination (BLIC) antibiotics are available in South Africa (SA) for the treatment of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales infections. We describe the successful use of ceftazidime-avibactam (CA) for the treatment of a child with persistent carbapenem-resistant Serratia marcescens bacteraemia, and the challenges faced using this lifesaving antibiotic, including access to susceptibility testing, procurement process, cost and complexity of deciding when, how and for how long to use it. Furthermore, the burden of carbapenem resistance is increasing in SA, and inappropriate use of CA and other newer BLIC antibiotics, such as ceftolozane-tazobactam, will inevitably endanger their longevity. A careful balance must be struck between removing unnecessary obstacles and delays in initiating these antibiotics for life-threatening infections, and additional antimicrobial stewardship-guided interventions aimed at preserving their therapeutic use.

Hydatid brain cyst: A delayed diagnosis in a rural setting during COVID-19.

A previously healthy 10-year-old girl, living in a sheep-farming community in South Africa with exposure to dogs, presented to her local hospital with generalised tonic-clonic seizures. The initial clinical assessment and laboratory work-up were unremarkable. When she presented with further seizures 6 months later, attempts to arrange neuroimaging and specialist assessment were unsuccessful owing to restrictions on routine healthcare services during the SARS-CoV-2 nationwide lockdown. Subsequently, 11 months after her first presentation, she developed focal neurological signs suggestive of raised intracranial pressure. A brain computed tomography scan revealed a left-sided cerebral cyst and imminent tonsillar herniation. An emergency burr-hole procedure was performed to relieve the raised intracranial pressure, followed by definitive neurosurgical excision of cysts. Hydatid protoscolices and hooklets were seen on microscopy of cyst fluid, and treatment with albendazole and praziquantel was initiated. While her infection was treated successfully, long-term sequelae including permanent blindness and hemiparesis could potentially have been prevented with early neuroimaging and surgical intervention.

The Association between Tumour Markers and Meta-iodobenzylguanidine Scans in South African Children with High-risk Neuroblastoma.

AIMS: Diagnostic and post-induction 123I-meta-iodobenzylguanidine (123I-mIBG) scans have prognostic significance in the treatment of neuroblastoma, but data from low- and middle-income countries are limited due to resource constraints. The aim of this study was to determine the association between neuroblastoma-associated tumour markers (lactate dehydrogenase [LDH], ferritin and MYCN amplification) and 123I-mIBG scans (modified Curie scores and metastatic disease patterns) in predicting complete metastatic response rates (mCR) and overall survival. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two hundred and ninety patients diagnosed with high-risk neuroblastoma in South Africa between January 2000 and May 2018 and a subanalysis of 78 patients with diagnostic 123I-mIBG scans were included. Data collection included LDH, ferritin and MYCN amplification at diagnosis. Two nuclear physicians independently determined the modified Curie scores and pattern of distribution for each diagnostic and post-induction 123I-mIBG scans with high inter-rater agreement (r = 0.952) and reliability (K = 0.805). The cut-off values for the diagnostic and post-induction modified Curie scores of ≥7.0 (P = 0.026) and 3 (P = 0.009), respectively, were generated. The association between the tumour markers and the modified Curie score of the 123I-mIBG scans was determined using post-induction mCR and 2-year overall survival. RESULTS: Diagnostic LDH (P < 0.001), ferritin (P < 0.001) and the diagnostic modified Curie scores (P = 0.019) significantly predicted mCR. Only ferritin correlated with diagnostic modified Curie scores (P = 0.003) but had a low correlation coefficient of 0.353. On multivariable analysis, the only significant covariate for 2-year overall survival at diagnosis was LDH <750 U/l (P = 0.024). A post-induction chemotherapy modified Curie score ≤3.0 had a 2-year overall survival of 46.2% compared with 30.8% for a score >3.0 (P = 0.484). CONCLUSION: LDH, ferritin and the diagnostic 123I-mIBG scans significantly predicted mCR, but only LDH predicted 2-year overall survival. Ferritin and the modified Curie scores correlated with each other. MYCN amplification neither correlated with any aspect of the 123I-mIBG scans nor significantly predicted mCR or 2-year overall survival. LDH and ferritin are therefore appropriate neuroblastoma tumour markers to be used in low- and middle-income countries with limited or no access to mIBG scans and/or MYCN amplification studies.