Regional differences and temporal trend analysis of Hepatitis B in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Burden disease related to chronic HBV infection is increasing worldwide. Monitoring Hepatitis B occurrence is difficult due to intrinsic characteristics of the infection, nonetheless analyzing this information improves strategic planning towards reducing the burden related to chronic infection. In this line of thought, this study aims to analyze national and regional epidemiology of Hepatitis B and it's temporal trends based on Brazilian reported cases. METHODS: Data obtained from the Brazilian National Notifiable Disease Reporting System (SINAN) from 2007 to 2018 were classified by infection status with an original classification algorithm, had their temporal trends analyzed by Joinpoint regression model and were correlated with gender, age and region. RESULTS: Of the 487,180 hepatitis B cases notified to SINAN, 97.65% had it infection status correctly classified by the new algorithm. Hepatitis B detection rate, gender and age-distribution were different among Brazilian regions. Overall, detection rates remained stable from 2007 to 2018, achieving their maximal value (56.1 cases per 100,000 inhabitants) in North region. However, there were different temporal trends related to different hepatitis B status and age. Women mean age at notification were always inferior to those of men and the difference was higher in Central-West, North and Northeast regions. CONCLUSION: Hepatitis B affects heterogeneously different populations throughout Brazilian territory. The differences shown in its temporal trends, regional, gender and age-related distribution helps the planning and evaluation of control measures in Brazil.

Interferon-γ release assay as a sensitive diagnostic tool of latent tuberculosis infection in patients with HIV: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: In developing countries, tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health problem and the leading cause of death among patients with HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus). Until 2001, the tuberculin skin test (TST) was the only available tool for the diagnosis of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI), but false-negative TST results are frequently reported. Recently, the interferon-γ (IFN-γ) release assay (IGRA) has gained ground because it can detect the IFN-γ secreted by circulating lymphocytes T cells when stimulated by specific TB antigens. However, the role of IGRA in the diagnosis of LTBI in HIV-infected patients has not been well established. METHODS: This cross-sectional study compared the accuracy of TST (performed by the Mantoux method) and IGRA (QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube, Cellestis, Carnegie, Australia) on the diagnosis of LTBI among patients with HIV. LTBI is defined by LTBI risk and at least one positive test (TST or IGRA), without clinical evidence of active TB. We also assessed the accuracy of TST and IGRA among HIV patients with high and low risk for LTBI. RESULTS: Among 90 HIV patients, 80 met the study criteria for LTBI, fifty-nine (73.7%) patients were TST positive, 21 (26.2%) were negative, whereas 75 patients (93.7%) were IGRA positive, and five (6.2%) were negative. TST showed poor agreement with the diagnosis of LTBI (Kappa: 0.384), while IGRA demonstrated good agreement (Kappa: 0.769). Among 69 patients with high risk and 21 with low risk for LTBI, TST was positive in 48 (69.5%) and 11 (52.4%), while IGRA was positive in 68 (98.5%) and 7 (33.3%) patients, respectively. There were no association between TST and the level of risk (P = 0,191). Conversely, we observed a strong association between the IGRA and risk for LTBI (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Compared to TST, IGRA positivity is consistent with the risk of TB infection and seems to be a better diagnostic tool for LTBI in HIV-infected patients.

The risk of urban yellow fever resurgence in Aedes-infested American cities.

Aedes aegypti, historically known as yellow fever (YF) mosquito, transmits a great number of other viruses such as Dengue, West Nile, Chikungunya, Zika, Mayaro and perhaps Oropouche, among others. Well established in Africa and Asia, Aedes mosquitoes are now increasingly invading large parts of the American continent, and hence the risk of urban YF resurgence in the American cities should because of great concern to public health authorities. Although no new urban cycle of YF was reported in the Americas since the end of an Aedes eradication programme in the late 1950s, the high number of non-vaccinated individuals that visit endemic areas, that is, South American jungles where the sylvatic cycle of YF is transmitted by canopy mosquitoes, and return to Aedes-infested urban areas, increases the risk of resurgence of the urban cycle of YF. We present a method to estimate the risk of urban YF resurgence in dengue-endemic cities. This method consists in (1) to estimate the number of Aedes mosquitoes that explains a given dengue outbreak in a given region; (2) calculate the force of infection caused by the introduction of one infective individual per unit area in the endemic area under study; (3) using the above estimates, calculate the probability of at least one autochthonous YF case per unit area produced by one single viraemic traveller per unit area arriving from a YF endemic or epidemic sylvatic region at the city studied. We demonstrate that, provided the relative vector competence, here defined as the capacity to being infected and disseminate the virus, of Ae. aegypti is greater than 0.7 (with respect to dengue), one infected traveller can introduce urban YF in a dengue endemic area.

Estimating the prevalence of infectious diseases from under-reported age-dependent compulsorily notification databases.

BACKGROUND: National or local laws, norms or regulations (sometimes and in some countries) require medical providers to report notifiable diseases to public health authorities. Reporting, however, is almost always incomplete. This is due to a variety of reasons, ranging from not recognizing the diseased to failures in the technical or administrative steps leading to the final official register in the disease notification system. The reported fraction varies from 9 to 99% and is strongly associated with the disease being reported. METHODS: In this paper we propose a method to approximately estimate the full prevalence (and any other variable or parameter related to transmission intensity) of infectious diseases. The model assumes incomplete notification of incidence and allows the estimation of the non-notified number of infections and it is illustrated by the case of hepatitis C in Brazil. The method has the advantage that it can be corrected iteratively by comparing its findings with empirical results. RESULTS: The application of the model for the case of hepatitis C in Brazil resulted in a prevalence of notified cases that varied between 163,902 and 169,382 cases; a prevalence of non-notified cases that varied between 1,433,638 and 1,446,771; and a total prevalence of infections that varied between 1,597,540 and 1,616,153 cases. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the model proposed can be useful for estimation of the actual magnitude of endemic states of infectious diseases, particularly for those where the number of notified cases is only the tip of the iceberg. In addition, the method can be applied to other situations, such as the well-known underreported incidence of criminality (for example rape), among others.

The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Rio de Janeiro in Brazil will host the Summer Olympic Games in 2016. About 400,000 non-immune foreign tourists are expected to attend the games. As Brazil is the country with the highest number of dengue cases worldwide, concern about the risk of dengue for travelers is justified. METHODS: A mathematical model to calculate the risk of developing dengue for foreign tourists attending the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016 is proposed. A system of differential equation models the spread of dengue amongst the resident population and a stochastic approximation is used to assess the risk to tourists. Historical reported dengue time series in Rio de Janeiro for the years 2000-2015 is used to find out the time dependent force of infection, which is then used to estimate the potential risks to a large tourist cohort. The worst outbreak of dengue occurred in 2012 and this and the other years in the history of Dengue in Rio are used to discuss potential risks to tourists amongst visitors to the forthcoming Rio Olympics. RESULTS: The individual risk to be infected by dengue is very much dependent on the ratio asymptomatic/symptomatic considered but independently of this the worst month of August in the period studied in terms of dengue transmission, occurred in 2007. CONCLUSIONS: If dengue returns in 2016 with the pattern observed in the worst month of August in history (2007), the expected number of symptomatic and asymptomatic dengue cases among tourists will be 23 and 206 cases, respectively. This worst case scenario would have an incidence of 5.75 (symptomatic) and 51.5 (asymptomatic) per 100,000 individuals.

Estimating the Size of the HCV Infection Prevalence: A Modeling Approach Using the Incidence of Cases Reported to an Official Notification System.

In this paper we propose two methods to give a first rough estimate of the actual number of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected individuals (prevalence) taking into account the notification rate of newly diagnosed infections (incidence of notification) and the size of the liver transplantation waiting list (LTWL) of patients with liver failure due to chronic HCV infection. Both approaches, when applied to the Brazilian HCV situation converge to the same results, that is, the methods proposed reproduce both the prevalence of reported cases and the LTWL with reasonable accuracy. We use two methods to calculate the prevalence of HCV that, as a first, and very crude approximation, assumes that the actual prevalence of HCV in Brazil is proportional to the reported incidence to the official notification system with a constant denoted [Formula: see text]. In the paper we discuss the limitations and advantages of this assumption. With the two methods we calculated [Formula: see text], which reproduces both the reported incidence and the size of the LTWL. With the value of [Formula: see text] we calculated the prevalence I(a) (the integral of which resulted in 1.6 million people living with the infection in Brazil, most of whom unidentified). Other variables related to HCV infection (e.g., the distribution of the proportion of people aged a who got infected n years ago) can be easily calculated from this model. These new variables can then be measured and the model can be recursively updated, improving its accuracy.

Modeling Importations and Exportations of Infectious Diseases via Travelers.

This paper is an attempt to estimate the risk of infection importation and exportation by travelers. Two countries are considered: one disease-free country and one visited or source country with a running endemic or epidemic infectious disease. Two models are considered. In the first model (disease importation), susceptible individuals travel from their disease-free home country to the endemic country and come back after some weeks. The risk of infection spreading in their home country is then estimated supposing the visitors are submitted to the same force of infection as the local population but do not contribute to it. In the second model (disease exportation), it is calculated the probability that an individual from the endemic (or epidemic) country travels to a disease-free country in the condition of latent infected and eventually introduces the infection there. The input of both models is the force of infection at the visited/source country, assumed known. The models are deterministic, but a preliminary stochastic formulation is presented as an appendix. The models are exemplified with two distinct real situations: the risk of dengue importation from Thailand to Europe and the risk of Ebola exportation from Liberia to the USA.

Short-term economic impact of the Zika virus outbreak.

Zika virus (ZIKV) is mainly transmitted by mosquitoes bites. However, transmission by sexual contacts has been reported in 11 non endemic countries. The rapid spread of ZIKV in Latin American and Caribbean Countries (LCR), person-to-person transmission and perceived risk on people's well being can affect the emerging economies of LCR which historically dependent on truism. Here we present an analysis on economic outputs for assessing the current impact of ZIKV on markets. Our analysis show an unexpected resilience of LCR markets to international alerts. This positive response represents an opportunity to scale-up interventions for preventing the further spreading of the ZIKV epidemic.

Plasmodium falciparum in the southeastern Atlantic forest: a challenge to the bromeliad-malaria paradigm?

BACKGROUND: Recently an unexpectedly high prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum was found in asymptomatic blood donors living in the southeastern Brazilian Atlantic forest. The bromeliad-malaria paradigm assumes that transmission of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium malariae involves species of the subgenus Kerteszia of Anopheles and only a few cases of P. vivax malaria are reported annually in this region. The expectations of this paradigm are a low prevalence of P. vivax and a null prevalence of P. falciparum. Therefore, the aim of this study was to verify if P. falciparum is actively circulating in the southeastern Brazilian Atlantic forest remains. METHODS: In this study, anophelines were collected with Shannon and CDC-light traps in seven distinct Atlantic forest landscapes over a 4-month period. Field-collected Anopheles mosquitoes were tested by real-time PCR assay in pools of ten, and then each mosquito from every positive pool, separately for P. falciparum and P. vivax. Genomic DNA of P. falciparum or P. vivax from positive anophelines was then amplified by traditional PCR for sequencing of the 18S ribosomal DNA to confirm Plasmodium species. Binomial probabilities were calculated to identify non-random results of the P. falciparum-infected anopheline findings. RESULTS: The overall proportion of anophelines naturally infected with P. falciparum was 4.4% (21/480) and only 0.8% (4/480) with P. vivax. All of the infected mosquitoes were found in intermixed natural and human-modified environments and most were Anopheles cruzii (22/25 = 88%, 18 P. falciparum plus 4 P. vivax). Plasmodium falciparum was confirmed by sequencing in 76% (16/21) of positive mosquitoes, whereas P. vivax was confirmed in only 25% (1/4). Binomial probabilities suggest that P. falciparum actively circulates throughout the region and that there may be a threshold of the forested over human-modified environment ratio upon which the proportion of P. falciparum-infected anophelines increases significantly. CONCLUSIONS: These results show that P. falciparum actively circulates, in higher proportion than P. vivax, among Anopheles mosquitoes of fragments of the southeastern Brazilian Atlantic forest. This finding challenges the classical bromeliad-malaria paradigm, which considers P. vivax circulation as the driver for the dynamics of residual malaria transmission in this region.

A public health risk assessment for yellow fever vaccination: a model exemplified by an outbreak in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.

We propose a method to analyse the 2009 outbreak in the region of Botucatu in the state of São Paulo (SP), Brazil, when 28 yellow fever (YF) cases were confirmed, including 11 deaths. At the time of the outbreak, the Secretary of Health of the State of São Paulo vaccinated one million people, causing the death of five individuals, an unprecedented number of YF vaccine-induced fatalities. We apply a mathematical model described previously to optimise the proportion of people who should be vaccinated to minimise the total number of deaths. The model was used to calculate the optimum proportion that should be vaccinated in the remaining, vaccine-free regions of SP, considering the risk of vaccine-induced fatalities and the risk of YF outbreaks in these regions.

Risk of symptomatic dengue for foreign visitors to the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil.

Brazil will host the FIFA World Cup™, the biggest single-event competition in the world, from June 12-July 13 2014 in 12 cities. This event will draw an estimated 600,000 international visitors. Brazil is endemic for dengue. Hence, attendees of the 2014 event are theoretically at risk for dengue. We calculated the risk of dengue acquisition to non-immune international travellers to Brazil, depending on the football match schedules, considering locations and dates of such matches for June and July 2014. We estimated the average per-capita risk and expected number of dengue cases for each host-city and each game schedule chosen based on reported dengue cases to the Brazilian Ministry of Health for the period between 2010-2013. On the average, the expected number of cases among the 600,000 foreigner tourists during the World Cup is 33, varying from 3-59. Such risk estimates will not only benefit individual travellers for adequate pre-travel preparations, but also provide valuable information for public health professionals and policy makers worldwide. Furthermore, estimates of dengue cases in international travellers during the World Cup can help to anticipate the theoretical risk for exportation of dengue into currently non-infected areas.

Temporal Trends of Acute Hepatitis A in Brazil and Its Regions.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis A is responsible for 126,000,000 cases of acute viral hepatitis distributed heterogeneously worldwide, with a high disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate, especially in low-income countries. Data related to Hepatitis A provides information to improve control measures and identify the population at risk. This study aims to analyze temporal trends of Hepatitis A in Brazil and its regions from 2007 to 2018, based on official notification data. METHODS: Data related to Hepatitis A reported cases from 2007 to 2018 were fitted to a joinpoint model by Brazilian regions, age groups, and gender, allowing the calculation of average annual percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) to estimate trends of Hepatitis A in Brazil. FINDINGS: From 2007 to 2018, 65,284 Hepatitis A cases notified in Brazil were available for analysis. The Northeast Region reported 18,732 (28.69%) cases, followed by the North Region reporting 18,430 (28.23%), the Southeast Region reporting 14,073 (21.55%), the South Region reporting 7909 (12.11%), and the Central-West Region reporting 6140 (9.4%), respectively. Temporal trend analysis showed that Hepatitis A incidence decreased from 2007 to 2016 in all Brazilian regions for individuals less than 20 years old, but increased in the South and Southeast males between 10 and 39 years after 2016. CONCLUSIONS: Hepatitis A endemicity is heterogeneous among Brazilian regions. In addition, an unexpected outbreak of HAV among Southeast and South adult males in 2016 resembles the outbreak in Europe, revealing a vulnerable population that should be prioritized by vaccination programs and control measures.

Rapidly fatal tropical pyomyositis in an elderly diabetic woman.

Necrotizing soft tissue infection, with or without myositis, is classified among the most dangerous infectious emergencies in clinical practice. The authors report a case of an older diabetic woman who presented to the orthopedic service with right elbow pain after a small trauma with skin abrasion and released with an analgesic prescription. After 48h, she presented to the emergency room with a history of developing bullous and necrotic lesions in the upper right limb, hypotension, and numbness, with rapid and fatal evolution despite adequate clinical and surgical therapeutic support. Muscle biopsy showed necrotizing myositis. Blood culture was positive for Panton-Valentine leukocidin producing (PVL-positive) methicillin-resistant S. aureus. Although PVL has a strong epidemiologic association with Community-Acquired Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) infections, it can also be found in CA-MSSA in the context of necrotizing pneumonia and skin and soft tissue infections. Although infrequent, CA-MRSA or CA-MSSA PVL+ infections should always be suspected in high-risk patients because they can rapidly evolve with severe, sometimes fatal complications.

Modeling the dynamics of viral evolution considering competition within individual hosts and at population level: the effects of treatment.

We consider two viral strains competing against each other within individual hosts (at cellular level) and at population level (for infecting hosts) by studying two cases. In the first case, the strains do not mutate into each other. In this case, we found that each individual in the population can be infected by only one strain and that co-existence in the population is possible only when the strain that has the greater basic intracellular reproduction number, R (0c ), has the smaller population number R (0p ). Treatment against the one strain shifts the population equilibrium toward the other strain in a complicated way (see Appendix B). In the second case, we assume that the strain that has the greater intracellular number R (0c ) can mutate into the other strain. In this case, individual hosts can be simultaneously infected by both strains (co-existence within the host). Treatment shifts the prevalence of the two strains within the hosts, depending on the mortality induced by the treatment, which is, in turn, dependent upon the doses given to each individual. The relative proportions of the strains at the population level, under treatment, depend both on the relative proportions within the hosts (which is determined by the dosage of treatment) and on the number of individuals treated per unit time, that is, the rate of treatment. Implications for cases of real diseases are briefly discussed.

Modeling the competition between viruses in a complex plant-pathogen system.

In this article, we propose a mathematical model that describes the competition between two plant virus strains (MAV and PAV) for both the host plant (oat) and their aphid vectors. We found that although PAV is transmitted by two aphids and MAV by only one, this fact, by itself, does not explain the complete replacement of MAV by PAV in New York State during the period from 1961 through 1976; an interpretation that is in agreement with the theories of A. G. Power. Also, although MAV wins the competition within aphids, we assumed that, in 1961, PAV mutated into a new variant such that this new variant was able to overcome MAV within the plants during a latent period. As shown below, this is sufficient to explain the swap of strains; that is, the dominant MAV was replaced by PAV, also in agreement with Power's expectations.

The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA.

We estimate the risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA. This is done by a mathematical model that quantifies the intensity of transmission of the new virus in those countries and the probability that one individual has of acquiring the influenza depending on the date of arrival and time spent in the area. The maximum estimated risk reached 7.5 cases per 10,000 visitors to Chile, 17 cases per 10,000 travelers to Argentina and 23 cases per 10,000 travelers to the USA. The estimated number of imported cases until 27 July is 57 +/- 9 from Chile, 136 +/- 27 from the USA and 301 +/- 21 from Argentina, which are in accord with the official figures. Estimating the number of imported cases was particularly important for the moment of the disease introduction into this country, but it will certainly be important again as a tool to calculate the number of future imported cases from northern countries in our next inter-epidemic season, were imported cases can constitute again the majority of the new influenza burden to the Brazilian health services.

EPICOVID19 protocol: repeated serological surveys on SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Brazil.

The first case of COVID-19 was reported in China in December 2019, and, as the virus has spread worldwide, the World Health Organization declared it a pandemic. Estimates on the number of COVID-19 cases do not reflect it real magnitude as testing is limited. Population based data on the proportion of the population with antibodies is relevant for planning public health policies. We aim to assess the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, presence of signs and symptoms of COVID-19, and adherence to isolation measures. A random sample comprising 133 sentinel cities from all states of the country will be selected. Three serological surveys, three weeks apart, will be conducted. The most populous municipality in each intermediate region of the country, defined by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, was chosen as sentinel city. In each city, 25 census tracts will be selected, and 10 households will be systematically sampled in each tract, totaling 33,250 participants. In each household, one inhabitant will be randomly selected to be interviewed and tested for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, using WONDFO SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Test. By evaluating a representative sample of Brazilian sentinel sites, this study will provide essential information for the design of health policies.

Dog culling and replacement in an area endemic for visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil.

Measures employed to control visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil have focused on vector control by residual insecticide spraying and diagnosis of infection with elimination of positive dogs. We describe dog culling and replacement in a Brazilian endemic area (the Alvorada District, Araçatuba, SP) in order to better understand dog population dynamics when elimination of the dog reservoir is adopted as the main control measure. From August 2002 to July 2004, 60.9% of the estimated dog population for the area was culled with a mean age of 34 months old. The presence of anti-Leishmania sp. antibodies was recorded for only 26.7% of the euthanized canines. Replacement was observed in 38.8% of the cases, some of them by 2 or more dogs and in a mean time of 4 months. Dogs were replaced mostly by puppies of both sexes with a mean age of 6.8 months. From August 2002 to April 2005 we were able to follow-up 116 of these dogs, during a mean time of 8.7 months. Canine visceral leishmaniasis seropositivity by ELISA was observed in 42.2% of the followed dogs, 30.6% of which were already positive at the first evaluation. By the end of the follow-up period 37% of the dogs were submitted to euthanasia, with a mean age of 18.3 months. In the studied CVL endemic area of Brazil, euthanasia and the subsequent replacement ratio were high, increasing the dog population turnover and leading to a younger population that might be more susceptible to a variety of other infectious diseases in addition to CVL. Dog culling as a control strategy for VL should be reassessed.

Dynamics of the 2006/2007 dengue outbreak in Brazil.

We analyzed dengue incidence in the period between October 2006-July 2007 of 146 cities around the country were Larval Index Rapid Assay (LIRA) surveillance was carried out in October 2006. Of these, we chosen 61 cities that had 500 or more cases reported during this period. We calculated the incidence coefficient, the force of infection (lambda) and the basic reproduction number (R0) of dengue in those 61 cities and correlated those variables with the LIRA. We concluded that lambda and R0 are more associated with the number of cases than LIRA. In addition, the average R0 for the 2006/2007 dengue season was almost as high as that calculated for the 2001/2002 season, the worst in Brazilian history.

Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe.

Given the speed of air travel, diseases even with a short viremia such as dengue can be easily exported to dengue naïve areas within 24 hours. We set out to estimate the risk of dengue virus introductions via travelers into Europe and number of secondary autochthonous cases as a result of the introduction. We applied mathematical modeling to estimate the number of dengue-viremic air passengers from 16 dengue-endemic countries to 27 European countries, taking into account the incidence of dengue in the exporting countries, travel volume and the probability of being viremic at the time of travel. Our models estimate a range from zero to 167 air passengers who are dengue-viremic at the time of travel from dengue endemic countries to each of the 27 receiving countries in one year. Germany receives the highest number of imported dengue-viremic air passengers followed by France and the United Kingdom. Our findings estimate 10 autochthonous secondary asymptomatic and symptomatic dengue infections, caused by the expected 124 infected travelers who arrived in Italy in 2012. The risk of onward transmission in Europe is reassuringly low, except where Aedes aegypti is present.