Predictors of treatment failure for non-severe childhood pneumonia in developing countries--systematic literature review and expert survey--the first step towards a community focused mHealth risk-assessment tool?

BACKGROUND: Improved referral algorithms for children with non-severe pneumonia at the community level are desirable. We sought to identify predictors of oral antibiotic failure in children who fulfill the case definition of World Health Organization (WHO) non-severe pneumonia. Predictors of greatest interest were those not currently utilized in referral algorithms and feasible to obtain at the community level. METHODS: We systematically reviewed prospective studies reporting independent predictors of oral antibiotic failure for children 2-59 months of age in resource-limited settings with WHO non-severe pneumonia (either fast breathing for age and/or lower chest wall indrawing without danger signs), with an emphasis on predictors not currently utilized for referral and reasonable for community health workers. We searched PubMed, Cochrane, and Embase and qualitatively analyzed publications from 1997-2014. To supplement the limited published evidence in this subject area we also surveyed respiratory experts. RESULTS: Nine studies met criteria, seven of which were performed in south Asia. One eligible study occurred exclusively at the community level. Overall, oral antibiotic failure rates ranged between 7.8-22.9%. Six studies found excess age-adjusted respiratory rate (either WHO-defined very fast breathing for age or 10-15 breaths/min faster than normal WHO age-adjusted thresholds) and four reported young age as predictive for oral antibiotic failure. Of the seven predictors identified by the expert panel, abnormal oxygen saturation and malnutrition were most highly favored per the panel's rankings and comments. CONCLUSIONS: This review identified several candidate predictors of oral antibiotic failure not currently utilized in childhood pneumonia referral algorithms; excess age-specific respiratory rate, young age, abnormal oxygen saturation, and moderate malnutrition. However, the data was limited and there are clear evidence gaps; research in rural, low-resource settings with community health workers is needed.

Implications of acquired environmental enteric dysfunction for growth and stunting in infants and children living in low- and middle-income countries.

Changes in small bowel function early in infancy in developing countries are increasingly being demonstrated, probably accompanied by altered mucosal architecture in most individuals, including reduced enterocyte mass and evidence of immune activation and inflammation in the mucosa. These alterations appear to be the result of factors of uncertain nature in the environment, and may be a cause of growth faltering and stunting in young children. For these reasons, this constellation of findings is being referred to as environmental enteropathy, or as we propose herein, environmental enteric dysfunction. If the causes were known and effective interventions were available, strategies and policies to intervene at--or possibly before--birth could be developed and promoted in order to prevent subsequent malnutrition and recurrent infection, which are known to interact in a cyclical and synergistic manner in a downward clinical course often ending in death. Resources would be mobilized and applied differently, and the emphasis would change from treatment to prevention. In order to move in this highly desired direction, investments in research will be required to establish the criteria to assess environmental enteric dysfunction, determine its predictive value for growth faltering and stunting, identify the causes, and propose and test potential interventions. The concepts and tools are available. What is required is the decision to move forward along this pathway to better health for infants and children in low-income countries.