A new interpretation of Madagascar's megafaunal decline: The "Subsistence Shift Hypothesis".

Fundamental disagreements remain regarding the relative importance of climate change and human activities as triggers for Madagascar's Holocene megafaunal extinction. We use stable isotope data from stalagmites from northwest Madagascar coupled with radiocarbon and butchery records from subfossil bones across the island to investigate relationships between megafaunal decline, climate change, and habitat modification. Archaeological and genetic evidence support human presence by 2000 years Before Common Era (BCE). Megafaunal decline was at first slow; it hastened at ∼700 Common Era (CE) and peaked between 750 and 850 CE, just before a dramatic vegetation transformation in the northwest that resulted in the replacement of C3 woodland habitat with C4 grasslands, during a period of heightened monsoonal activity. Cut and chop marks on subfossil lemur bones reveal a shift in primary hunting targets from larger, now-extinct species prior to ∼900 CE, to smaller, still-extant species afterwards. By 1050 CE, megafaunal populations had essentially collapsed. Neither the rapid megafaunal decline beginning ∼700 CE, nor the dramatic vegetation transformation in the northwest beginning ∼890 CE, was influenced by aridification. However, both roughly coincide with a major transition in human subsistence on the island from hunting/foraging to herding/farming. We offer a new hypothesis, which we call the "Subsistence Shift Hypothesis," to explain megafaunal decline and extinction in Madagascar. This hypothesis acknowledges the importance of wild-animal hunting by early hunter/foragers, but more critically highlights negative impacts of the shift from hunting/foraging to herding/farming, settlement by new immigrant groups, and the concomitant expansion of the island's human population. The interval between 700 and 900 CE, when the pace of megafaunal decline quickened and peaked, coincided with this economic transition. While early megafaunal decline through hunting may have helped to trigger the transition, there is strong evidence that the economic shift itself hastened the crash of megafaunal populations.

Multidecadal to multicentury scale collapses of Northern Hemisphere monsoons over the past millennium.

Late Holocene climate in western North America was punctuated by periods of extended aridity called megadroughts. These droughts have been linked to cool eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Here, we show both short-term and long-term climate variability over the last 1,500 y from annual band thickness and stable isotope speleothem data. Several megadroughts are evident, including a multicentury one, AD 1350-1650, herein referred to as Super Drought, which corresponds to the coldest period of the Little Ice Age. Synchronicity between southwestern North American, Chinese, and West African monsoon precipitation suggests the megadroughts were hemispheric in scale. Northern Hemisphere monsoon strength over the last millennium is positively correlated with Northern Hemisphere temperature and North Atlantic SST. The megadroughts are associated with cooler than average SST and Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Furthermore, the megadroughts, including the Super Drought, coincide with solar insolation minima, suggesting that solar forcing of sea surface and atmospheric temperatures may generate variations in the strength of Northern Hemisphere monsoons. Our findings seem to suggest stronger (wetter) Northern Hemisphere monsoons with increased warming.

Zonal control on Holocene precipitation in northwestern Madagascar based on a stalagmite from Anjohibe.

The Malagasy Summer Monsoon is an important part of the larger Indian Ocean and tropical monsoon region. As the effects of global warming play out, changes to precipitation in Madagascar will have important ramifications for the Malagasy people. To help understand how precipitation responds to climate changes we present a long-term Holocene speleothem record from Anjohibe, part of the Andranoboka cave system in northwestern Madagascar. To date, it is the most complete Holocene record from this region and sheds light on the nature of millennial and centennial precipitation changes in this region. We find that over the Holocene, precipitation in northwestern Madagascar is actually in phase with the Northern Hemisphere Asian monsoon on multi-millennial scales, but that during some shorter centennial-scale events such as the 8.2 ka event, Anjohibe exhibits an antiphase precipitation signal to the Northern Hemisphere. The ultimate driver of precipitation changes across the Holocene does not appear to be the meridional migration of the monsoon. Instead, zonal sea surface temperature gradients in the Indian Ocean seem to play a primary role in precipitation changes in northwestern Madagascar.

Droughts and societal change: The environmental context for the emergence of Islam in late Antique Arabia.

In Arabia, the first half of the sixth century CE was marked by the demise of Himyar, the dominant power in Arabia until 525 CE. Important social and political changes followed, which promoted the disintegration of the major Arabian polities. Here, we present hydroclimate records from around Southern Arabia, including a new high-resolution stalagmite record from northern Oman. These records clearly indicate unprecedented droughts during the sixth century CE, with the most severe aridity persisting between ~500 and 530 CE. We suggest that such droughts undermined the resilience of Himyar and thereby contributed to the societal changes from which Islam emerged.

Structural complexity in ramp-compressed sodium to 480 GPa.

The properties of all materials at one atmosphere of pressure are controlled by the configurations of their valence electrons. At extreme pressures, neighboring atoms approach so close that core-electron orbitals overlap, and theory predicts the emergence of unusual quantum behavior. We ramp-compress monovalent elemental sodium, a prototypical metal at ambient conditions, to nearly 500 GPa (5 million atmospheres). The 7-fold increase of density brings the interatomic distance to 1.74 Å well within the initial 2.03 Å of the Na+ ionic diameter, and squeezes the valence electrons into the interstitial voids suggesting the formation of an electride phase. The laser-driven compression results in pressure-driven melting and recrystallization in a billionth of a second. In situ x-ray diffraction reveals a series of unexpected phase transitions upon recrystallization, and optical reflectivity measurements show a precipitous decrease throughout the liquid and solid phases, where the liquid is predicted to have electronic localization. These data reveal the presence of a rich, temperature-driven polymorphism where core electron overlap is thought to stabilize the formation of peculiar electride states.

Insolation-driven changes in atmospheric circulation over the past 116,000 years in subtropical Brazil.

During the last glacial period, large millennial-scale temperature oscillations--the 'Dansgaard/Oeschger' cycles--were the primary climate signal in Northern Hemisphere climate archives from the high latitudes to the tropics. But whether the influence of these abrupt climate changes extended to the tropical and subtropical Southern Hemisphere, where changes in insolation are thought to be the main direct forcing of climate, has remained unclear. Here we present a high-resolution oxygen isotope record of a U/Th-dated stalagmite from subtropical southern Brazil, covering the past 116,200 years. The oxygen isotope signature varies with shifts in the source region and amount of rainfall in the area, and hence records changes in atmospheric circulation and convective intensity over South America. We find that these variations in rainfall source and amount are primarily driven by summer solar radiation, which is controlled by the Earth's precessional cycle. The Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles can be detected in our record and therefore we confirm that they also affect the tropical hydrological cycle, but that in southern subtropical Brazil, millennial-scale climate changes are not as dominant as they are in the Northern Hemisphere.

Millennial and orbital scale variability of the South American Monsoon during the penultimate glacial period.

The presence of large, rapid climate oscillations is the most prominent feature of the Earth's last glacial period. These oscillations are observed throughout the Northern Hemisphere and into the Southern Hemisphere tropics. Whether similar oscillations are typical of prior glacial periods, however, has not been well established. Here, we present results of a study of the South American Summer Monsoon system that covers nearly the entire penultimate glacial period, from 195 to 135 ky BP. We use a well-dated, high-resolution (~50 y) time series of oxygen isotopes to show that the precession of the earth's orbit is the primary control on monsoon intensity. After removing the precession signal we observe millennial oscillations that are very similar in amplitude and structure to the Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles of the last interglacial and that match well a synthetic reconstruction of millennial variability. Time series analyses shows that the most prominent of the observed cycles occur at considerably longer frequency (~3500 y) that the Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles from Marine Isotope Stages 2-4.

Synchronous precipitation reduction in the American Tropics associated with Heinrich 2.

During the last ice age temperature in the North Atlantic oscillated in cycles known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events. The magnitude of Caribbean hydroclimate change associated with D-O variability and particularly with stadial intervals, remains poorly constrained by paleoclimate records. We present a 3.3 thousand-year long stalagmite δ18O record from the Yucatan Peninsula (YP) that spans the interval between 26.5 and 23.2 thousand years before present. We estimate quantitative precipitation variability and the high resolution and dating accuracy of this record allow us to investigate how rainfall in the region responds to D-O events. Quantitative precipitation estimates are based on observed regional amount effect variability, last glacial paleotemperature records, and estimates of the last glacial oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation based on global circulation models (GCMs). The new precipitation record suggests significant low latitude hydrological responses to internal modes of climate variability and supports a role of Caribbean hydroclimate in helping Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation recovery during D-O events. Significant in-phase precipitation reduction across the equator in the tropical Americas associated with Heinrich event 2 is suggested by available speleothem oxygen isotope records.

High-latitude forcing of the South American summer monsoon during the Last Glacial.

The climate of the Last Glacial period (10,000 to 110,000 years ago) was characterized by rapid millennial-scale climate fluctuations termed Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) and Heinrich events. We present results from a speleothem-derived proxy of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) from 16,000 to 50,000 years ago that demonstrate the occurrence of D/O cycles and Heinrich events. This tropical Southern Hemisphere monsoon reconstruction illustrates an antiphase relationship to Northern Hemisphere monsoon intensity at the millennial scale. Our results also show an influence of Antarctic millennial-scale climate fluctuations on the SASM. This high-resolution, precisely dated, tropical precipitation record can be used to establish the timing of climate events in the high latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

Indian Ocean climate and an absolute chronology over Dansgaard/Oeschger events 9 to 13.

Oxygen-isotope ratios of a stalagmite from Socotra Island in the Indian Ocean provide a record of changes in monsoon precipitation and climate for the time period from 42 to 55 thousand years before the present. The pattern of precipitation bears a striking resemblance to the oxygen-isotope record from Greenland ice cores, with increased tropical precipitation associated with warm periods in the high northern latitudes. The largest change, at the onset of interstadial 12, occurred very rapidly, in about 25 years. The chronology of the events found in our record requires a reevaluation of previously published time scales for climate events during this period.

Holocene forcing of the Indian monsoon recorded in a stalagmite from southern Oman.

A high-resolution oxygen-isotope record from a thorium-uranium-dated stalagmite from southern Oman reflects variations in the amount of monsoon precipitation for the periods from 10.3 to 2.7 and 1.4 to 0.4 thousand years before the present (ky B.P.). Between 10.3 and 8 ky B.P., decadal to centennial variations in monsoon precipitation are in phase with temperature fluctuations recorded in Greenland ice cores, indicating that early Holocene monsoon intensity is largely controlled by glacial boundary conditions. After approximately 8 ky B.P., monsoon precipitation decreases gradually in response to changing Northern Hemisphere summer solar insolation, with decadal to multidecadal variations in monsoon precipitation being linked to solar activity.