Agile scores in MASLD and ALD: External validation and their utility in clinical algorithms.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Agile scores, including liver stiffness measurements (LSM) and routine clinical/laboratory biomarkers, have been developed for advanced fibrosis (F≥3) and cirrhosis (F4), respectively, in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). We independently validated the diagnostic accuracy of these scores in MASLD, alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) and chronic hepatitis B or C (CHB/C) and assessed them in clinical algorithms with FIB-4 and LSM. METHODS: We included 4,243 patients (MASLD: 912, ALD: 386, CHB: 597, CHC: 2,348) with LSM, liver biopsy and laboratory tests within 6 months. FIB-4, Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores were calculated. RESULTS: For F≥3, the diagnostic accuracy of Agile 3+ and LSM were similar in MASLD (AUC: 0.86 vs. 0.86, p = 0.831) and ALD (0.92 vs. 0.94, p = 0.123). For cirrhosis, Agile 4 was similar to LSM in MASLD (0.89 vs. 0.90, p = 0.412) and ALD (0.94 vs. 0.95, p = 0.513). Agile 3+/4 performed worse than LSM in CHB/C. Using predefined dual thresholds of 90% sensitivity/specificity, correct classification rates in MASLD were 66% vs. 61% using Agile 3+ vs. LS dual cut-offs and 71% vs. 67% in ALD, respectively. When using Agile 3+ or LSM as a second step after FIB-4 >1.3, correct classification rates were higher with Agile 3+ than LSM, both for MASLD (75% vs. 71%) and ALD (76% vs. 72%), with fewer indeterminate results. Positive agreement of LSM and Agile 3+/4 significantly increased the specificity of a diagnosis of advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis. CONCLUSION: Agile 3+ and Agile 4 have equal diagnostic accuracy with LSM in both MASLD and ALD but result in fewer indeterminate results. Sequential use of FIB-4 and Agile 3+/4 or concurrent Agile 3+/4 and LSM can be used to further optimize F≥3 diagnosis. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: As of today, it is accepted that there will be no single non-invasive test or an isolated cut-off for identifying patients with advanced chronic liver disease. Here, we confirmed that Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores are useful alternatives to simple liver stiffness measurement in diagnosing advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis in steatotic liver disease, but they do not perform as well in chronic viral hepatitis. Agile scores can help optimize the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis in a dual cut-off strategy by reducing the number of indeterminate results either alone or in a sequential strategy after FIB-4. The combination of Agile scores and liver stiffness measurement can further increase our confidence in a positive diagnosis of advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis. These novel combination strategies can be useful tools to predict the likelihood of advanced stages of liver disease with the highest possible accuracy in a secondary/tertiary healthcare setting.

Development and Validation of a Scoring System to Predict Response to Obeticholic Acid in Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Obeticholic acid (OCA) is the only licensed second-line therapy for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). With novel therapeutics in advanced development, clinical tools are needed to tailor the treatment algorithm. We aimed to derive and externally validate the OCA response score (ORS) for predicting the response probability of individuals with PBC to OCA. METHODS: We used data from the Italian RECAPITULATE (N = 441) and the IBER-PBC (N = 244) OCA real-world prospective cohorts to derive/validate a score including widely available variables obtained either pre-treatment (ORS) or also after 6 months of treatment (ORS+). Multivariable Cox regressions with backward selection were applied to obtain parsimonious predictive models. The predicted outcomes were biochemical response according to POISE (alkaline phosphatase [ALP]/upper limit of normal [ULN]<1.67 with a reduction of at least 15%, and normal bilirubin), or ALP/ULN<1.67, or Normal range criteria (NR: normal ALP, alanine aminotransferase [ALT], and bilirubin) up to 24 months. RESULTS: Depending on the response criteria, ORS included age, pruritus, cirrhosis, ALP/ULN, ALT/ULN, GGT/ULN, and bilirubin. ORS+ also included ALP/ULN and bilirubin after 6 months of OCA therapy. Internally validated c-statistics for ORS were 0.75, 0.78, and 0.72 for POISE, ALP/ULN<1.67, and NR response, which raised to 0.83, 0.88, and 0.81 with ORS+, respectively. The respective performances in validation were 0.70, 0.72, and 0.71 for ORS and 0.80, 0.84, and 0.78 for ORS+. Results were consistent across groups with mild/severe disease. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and externally validated a scoring system capable to predict OCA response according to different criteria. This tool will enhance a stratified second-line therapy model to streamline standard care and trial delivery in PBC.

Mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in older adult patients with cirrhosis: A validated prediction model.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Implantation of a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) improves survival in patients with cirrhosis with refractory ascites and portal hypertensive bleeding. However, the indication for TIPS in older adult patients (greater than or equal to 70 years) is debated, and a specific prediction model developed in this particular setting is lacking. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a multivariable model for an accurate prediction of mortality in older adults. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We prospectively enrolled 411 consecutive patients observed at four referral centers with de novo TIPS implantation for refractory ascites or secondary prophylaxis of variceal bleeding (derivation cohort) and an external cohort of 415 patients with similar indications for TIPS (validation cohort). Older adult patients in the two cohorts were 99 and 76, respectively. A cause-specific Cox competing risks model was used to predict liver-related mortality, with orthotopic liver transplant and death for extrahepatic causes as competing events. Age, alcoholic etiology, creatinine levels, and international normalized ratio in the overall cohort, and creatinine and sodium levels in older adults were independent risk factors for liver-related death by multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: After TIPS implantation, mortality is increased by aging, but TIPS placement should not be precluded in patients older than 70 years. In older adults, creatinine and sodium levels are useful predictors for decision making. Further efforts to update the prediction model with larger sample size are warranted.

Non-Invasive Diagnostic Tests for Portal Hypertension in Patients with HBV- and HCV-Related Cirrhosis: A Comprehensive Review.

Clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease indicates an increased risk of decompensation and death. While invasive methods like hepatic venous-portal gradient measurement is considered the gold standard, non-invasive tests (NITs) have emerged as valuable tools for diagnosing and monitoring CSPH. This review comprehensively explores non-invasive diagnostic modalities for portal hypertension, focusing on NITs in the setting of hepatitis B and hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis. Biochemical-based NITs can be represented by single serum biomarkers (e.g., platelet count) or by composite scores that combine different serum biomarkers with each other or with demographic characteristics (e.g., FIB-4). On the other hand, liver stiffness measurement and spleen stiffness measurement can be assessed using a variety of elastography techniques, and they can be used alone, in combination with, or as a second step after biochemical-based NITs. The incorporation of liver and spleen stiffness measurements, alone or combined with platelet count, into established and validated criteria, such as Baveno VI or Baveno VII criteria, provides useful tools for the prediction of CSPH and for ruling out high-risk varices, potentially avoiding invasive tests like upper endoscopy. Moreover, they have also been shown to be able to predict liver-related events (e.g., the occurrence of hepatic decompensation). When transient elastography is not available or not feasible, biochemical-based NITs (e.g., RESIST criteria, that are based on the combination of platelet count and albumin levels) are valid alternatives for predicting high-risk varices both in patients with untreated viral aetiology and after sustained virological response. Ongoing research should explore novel biomarkers and novel elastography techniques, but current evidence supports the utility of routine blood tests, LSM, and SSM as effective surrogates in diagnosing and staging portal hypertension and predicting patient outcomes.

Glecaprevir/Pibrentasvir is safe and effective in Italian patients with chronic hepatitis C aged 75 years or older: A multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: Glecaprevir and Pibrentasvir (G/P) determine high rates of sustained virological response (SVR) with optimal safety profile in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. The efficacy and safety of G/P in Caucasian patients aged 75 years and older have not been widely analysed. METHODS: This is a retrospective multicentre real-world study enrolling all consecutive patients 75 years and older who received G/P between October 2017 and January 2022 at five referral centres in Italy. SVR was analysed by intention-to-treat (ITT) and per-protocol analyses (PP). RESULTS: A total of 570 patients met the inclusion criteria and were analysed: mean age was 80 (75-97) years, 356 (62%) were females, 52% (298/570) had HCV-1, 44% (252/570) had HCV-2 and 137 (24%) patients had liver cirrhosis. Four hundred and sixty-three (81%) patients were taking at least one concomitant drug, with 144 (25%) taking ≥5 concomitant drugs. G/P was given for 8 weeks in 488 patients (86%). During treatment, 48 patients (8%) reported side effects, with 10 (2%) patients discontinuing treatment prematurely. Two patients developed treatment-unrelated serious adverse events. Overall, the SVR rate was 97.9% (558/570) by ITT analysis and 99.6% (558/560) by PP analysis. SVR rates remained consistently high among subgroup analysis stratified by genotype, treatment duration, fibrosis stage and concomitant medications. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with G/P achieved 97.9% SVR rates in HCV patients older than 75 years of age. Safety was optimal with only 2% of patients discontinuing early.

RESIST-HCV Criteria to Monitor Progression of Low-Risk Esophageal Varices in Patients With Compensated Cirrhosis After HCV Eradication: The SIMPLE Study: SIMPLE: Scoring Index to Monitor Progression of Low-risk Esophageal varices.

INTRODUCTION: Noninvasive criteria to predict the progression of low-risk esophageal varices (EV) in patients with compensated hepatitis C virus (HCV) cirrhosis after sustained virological response (SVR) by direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are lacking. Our aim was to assess the diagnostic performance of Rete Sicilia Selezione Terapia-HCV (RESIST-HCV) criteria for EV progression compared with elastography-based criteria (Baveno VI, Expanded Baveno VI, and Baveno VII-HCV criteria). METHODS: All consecutive patients observed at 3 referral centers with compensated HCV cirrhosis with or without F1 EV who achieved sustained virological response by DAAs were classified at last esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGDS) as RESIST-HCV low risk (i.e., low probability of high-risk varices [HRV]) if platelets were >120 × 10 9 /L and serum albumin >3.6 g/dL or RESIST-HCV high risk (i.e., high probability of HRV) if platelets were <120 × 10 9 /L or serum albumin <3.6 g/dL. The primary outcome was the progression to HRV. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and decision curve analysis of noninvasive criteria were calculated. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 353 patients in Child-Pugh class A (mean age 67.2 years, 53.8% males). During a mean follow-up of 44.2 months, 34 patients (9.6%, 95% CI 6.7%-13.5%) developed HRV. At the last EGDS, 178 patients (50.4%) were RESIST-low risk, and 175 (49.6%) were RESIST-high risk. RESIST-HCV criteria showed the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.65-0.75), correctly sparing the highest number of EGDS (54.3%), with the lowest false-positive rate (45.7%), compared with elastography-based criteria. Decision curve analysis showed that RESIST-HCV had higher clinical utility than elastography-based criteria. DISCUSSION: Biochemical-based RESIST-HCV criteria are useful to easily predict HRV development after HCV eradication by DAAs in patients with compensated cirrhosis and low-risk EV.

Accuracy of Transient Elastography in Assessing Fibrosis at Diagnosis in Naïve Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis: A Dual Cut-Off Approach.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Liver fibrosis holds a relevant prognostic meaning in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Noninvasive fibrosis evaluation using vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) is routinely performed. However, there is limited evidence on its accuracy at diagnosis in PBC. We aimed to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of VCTE in assessing advanced fibrosis (AF) at disease presentation in PBC. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We collected data from 167 consecutive treatment-naïve PBC patients who underwent liver biopsy (LB) at diagnosis at six Italian centers. VCTE examinations were completed within 12 weeks of LB. Biopsies were scored by two blinded expert pathologists, according to the Ludwig system. Diagnostic accuracy was estimated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) for AF (Ludwig stage ≥III). Effects of biochemical and clinical parameters on liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were appraised. The derivation cohort consisted of 126 patients with valid LSM and LB; VCTE identified patients with AF with an AUROC of 0.89. LSM cutoffs ≤6.5 and >11.0 kPa enabled to exclude and confirm, respectively, AF (negative predictive value [NPV] = 0.94; positive predictive value [PPV] = 0.89; error rate = 5.6%). These values were externally validated in an independent cohort of 91 PBC patients (NPV = 0.93; PPV = 0.89; error rate = 8.6%). Multivariable analysis found that the only parameter affecting LSM was fibrosis stage. No association was found with BMI and liver biochemistry. CONCLUSIONS: In a multicenter study of treatment-naïve PBC patients, we identified two cutoffs (LSM ≤6.5 and >11.0 kPa) able to discriminate at diagnosis the absence or presence, respectively, of AF in PBC patients, with external validation. In patients with LSM between these two cutoffs, VCTE is not reliable and liver biopsy should be evaluated for accurate disease staging. BMI and liver biochemistry did not affect LSMs.

Predictors of serious adverse events and non-response in cirrhotic patients with primary biliary cholangitis treated with obeticholic acid.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Obeticholic acid (OCA) has recently been restricted in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) with "advanced cirrhosis" because of its narrow therapeutic index. We aimed to better define the predicting factors of hepatic serious adverse events (SAEs) and non-response in cirrhotic patients undergoing OCA therapy. METHODS: Safety and efficacy of treatment were evaluated in a cohort of consecutive PBC cirrhotic patients started with OCA. OCA response was evaluated according to the Poise criteria. Risk factors for hepatic SAEs and non-response were reported as risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: One hundred PBC cirrhotics were included, 97 Child-Pugh class A and 3 class B. Thirty-one had oesophageal varices and 5 had a history of ascites. Thirty-three per cent and 32% of patients achieved a biochemical response at 6 and 12 months respectively. Male sex (adjusted-RR 1.75, 95%CI 1.42-2.12), INR (1.37, 1.00-1.87), Child-Pugh score (1.79, 1.28-2.50), MELD (1.17, 1.04-1.30) and bilirubin (1.83, 1.11-3.01) were independently associated with non-response to OCA. Twenty-two patients discontinued OCA within 12 months: 10 for pruritus, 9 for hepatic SAEs (5 for jaundice and/or ascitic decompensation; 4 for upper digestive bleeding). INR (adjusted-RR 1.91, 95%CI 1.10-3.36), lower albumin levels (0.18, 0.06-0.51), Child-Pugh score (2.43, 1.50-4.04), history of ascites (3.5, 1.85-6.5) and bilirubin (1.30, 1.05-1.56), were associated with hepatic SAEs. A total bilirubin≥1.4 mg/dl at baseline was the most accurate biochemical predictor of hepatic SAEs under OCA. CONCLUSIONS: An accurate baseline assessment is crucial to select cirrhotic patients who can benefit from OCA. Although OCA is effective in one third of cirrhotics, bilirubin level ≥1.4 mg/dl should discourage from its use.

Refining the Baveno VI elastography criteria for the definition of compensated advanced chronic liver disease.

BACKGROUND: The Baveno VI consensus proposed a dual liver stiffness (LS) by transient elastography threshold of <10 and >15 kPa for excluding and diagnosing compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) in the absence of other clinical signs. Herein, we aimed to validate these criteria in a real-world multicentre study. METHODS: We included 5,648 patients (mean age 51 ± 13 years, 53% males) from 10 European liver centres who had a liver biopsy and LS measurement within 6 months. We included patients with chronic hepatitis C (n = 2,913, 52%), non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD, n = 1,073, 19%), alcohol-related liver disease (ALD, n = 946, 17%) or chronic hepatitis B (n = 716, 13%). cACLD was defined as fibrosis stage ≥F3. RESULTS: Overall, 3,606 (66%) and 987 (18%) patients had LS <10 and >15 kPa, respectively, while cACLD was histologically confirmed in 1,772 (31%) patients. The cut-offs of <10 and >15 kPa showed 75% sensitivity and 96% specificity to exclude and diagnose cACLD, respectively. Examining the ROC curve, a more optimal dual cut-off at <7 and >12 kPa, with 91% sensitivity and 92% specificity for excluding and diagnosing cACLD (AUC 0.87; 95% CI 0.86-0.88; p <0.001) was derived. Specifically, for ALD and NAFLD, a low cut-off of 8 kPa can be used (sensitivity=93%). For the unclassified patients, we derived a risk model based on common patient characteristics with better discrimination than LS alone (AUC 0.74 vs. 0.69; p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Instead of the Baveno VI proposed <10 and >15 kPa dual cut-offs, we found that the <8 kPa (or <7 kPa for viral hepatitis) and >12 kPa dual cut-offs have better diagnostic accuracy in cACLD. LAY SUMMARY: The term compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) was introduced in 2015 to describe the spectrum of advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in asymptomatic patients. It was also suggested that cACLD could be diagnosed or ruled out based on specific liver stiffness values, which can be non-invasively measured by transient elastography. Herein, we assessed the suggested cut-off values and identified alternative values that offered better overall accuracy for diagnosing or ruling out cACLD.

Liver and cardiovascular mortality after hepatitis C virus eradication by DAA: Data from RESIST-HCV cohort.

Real-world evidence on the course of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) chronic liver disease after Sustained Virologic Response (SVR) obtained with direct-acting antiviral drugs (DAAs) are still limited, and the effects on mortality remain unclear. We evaluated the post-treatment survival of 4307 patients in the RESIST-HCV cohort (mean age 66.3 ± 11.6 years, 56.9% males, 24.7% chronic hepatitis, 66.9% Child-Pugh A cirrhosis and 8.4% Child-Pugh B cirrhosis) treated with DAAs between March 2015 and December 2016 and followed for a median of 73 weeks (range 16-152). Proportional cause-specific hazard regression for competing risks was used to evaluate the survival and to assess the predictors of liver and cardiovascular death. Overall, 94.7% of patients achieved SVR while 5.3% were HCV RNA-positive at last follow-up. Sixty-three patients (1.4%) died during the observation period. SVR was associated with a decreased risk of liver mortality (hazard ratio,HR0.09, beta -2.37, p < .001). Also, platelet count (HR 0.99, beta-0.01, p = .007) and albumin value (HR 0.26, beta -1.36 p = .001) were associated with liver mortality by competing risk analysis. SVR was associated with a reduced risk of cardiovascular mortality regardless of presence of cirrhosis (HR 0.07, beta-2.67, p < .001). Presence of diabetes (HR 3.45, beta 1.24, p = .014) and chronic kidney disease class ≥3 (HR 3.60, beta 1.28, p = 0.016) were two factors independently associated with higher risk of cardiovascular mortality. Patients with SVR to a DAA therapy have a better liver and cardiovascular survival, and the effects of HCV eradication are most evident in patients with compensated liver disease.

Long-term evolution of LI-RADS observations in HCV-related cirrhosis treated with direct-acting antivirals.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The risk of progression of indeterminate observations to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after direct-acting antivirals (DAA) is still undetermined. To assess whether DAA therapy changes the risk of progression of observations with low (LR-2), intermediate (LR-3) and high (LR-4) probability for HCC in cirrhotic patients and to identify predictors of progression. METHODS: This retrospective study included cirrhotic patients treated with DAA who achieved sustained virological response between 2015 and 2019. A total of 68 patients had pre-DAA indeterminate observations and at least six months CT/MRI follow-up before and after DAA. Two radiologists reviewed CT/MRI studies to categorize observations according to the LI-RADSv2018 and assess the evolution on subsequent follow-ups. Predictors of evolutions were evaluated by using the Cox proportional hazard model, Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test. RESULTS: A total of 109 untreated observations were evaluated, including 31 (28.4%) LR-2, 67 (61.5%) LR-3 and 11 (10.1%) LR-4. During a median follow-up of 41 months, 17.4% and 13.3% of observations evolved to LR-5 or LR-M and LR-5, before and after DAA respectively (P = .428). There was no difference in rate of progression of neither LR-2 (P = 1.000), LR-3 (P = .833) or LR-4 (P = .505). At multivariate analysis, only initial LI-RADS category was an independent predictor of progression to LR-5 or LR-M for all observations (hazard ratio 6.75, P < .001), and of progression to LR-5 after DAA (hazard ratio 4.34, P = .047). CONCLUSIONS: DAA therapy does not increase progression of indeterminate observations to malignant categories. The initial LI-RADS category is an independent predictor of observations upgrade.

Resistance analysis and treatment outcomes in hepatitis C virus genotype 3-infected patients within the Italian network VIRONET-C.

AIM: This study aimed to investigate the role of resistance-associated substitutions (RASs) to direct-acting-antivirals (DAAs) in HCV genotype 3 (GT3). METHODS: Within the Italian VIRONET-C network, a total of 539 GT3-infected patients (417 DAA-naïve and 135 DAA-failures, of them, 13 at both baseline and failure) were analysed. Sanger sequencing of NS3/NS5A/NS5B was performed following home-made protocols. RESULTS: The majority of patients were male (79.4%), 91.4% were injection drug users, 49.3% were cirrhotic and 13.9% were HIV co-infected. Phylogenetic analysis classified sequences as GT3a-b-g-h (98%-0.4%-0.2%-1.2%) respectively. Overall, 135 patients failed a DAA regimen: sofosbuvir (SOF)/daclatasvir (DCV) or velpatasvir (VEL)±ribavirin (RBV) (N = 91/15) and glecaprevir (G)/pibrentasvir (P) (N = 9). Moreover, 14.8% of patients were treated with suboptimal regimens for GT3: 3D ± RBV (Paritaprevir/r + Ombitasvir+Dasabuvir, N = 15), SOF + Simeprevir (SIM) (N = 1) or SOF/Ledipasvir (LDV) ± RBV (N = 4). RAS prevalence was 15.8% in DAA-naïve patients. At failure, 81.5% patients showed at least one RAS: 11/25 (44.0%) in NS3, 109/135 (80.7%) in NS5A, 7/111 (6.3%) in NS5B SOF-failures. In NS5A-failures, Y93H RAS was the most prevalent (68.5% vs 5.1% DAA-naïve, P < .001) followed by A30K (12.7% vs 2.8% in DAA-naïve, P < .001). Analysing baseline samples, a higher prevalence of NS5A-RASs was observed before treatment in DAA-failures (5/13, 38.5%) vs DAA-naïves (61/393, 15.5%, P = .04). Regarding 228 DAA-naïve patients with an available outcome, 93.9% achieved a SVR. Interestingly, patients with baseline Y93H and/or A30K had SVR rate of 72.2% vs 95.7% for patients without NS5A-RASs (P = .002). CONCLUSIONS: In this real-life GT3 cohort, the majority of failures harboured resistant variants carrying NS5A-RASs, the most frequent being Y93H. The presence of natural NS5A-RASs before treatment was associated with failure. Further analyses are needed to confirm this observation, particularly for the new current regimens.

Hepatic benefits of HCV cure.

Direct-acting antiviral (DAA)-induced HCV clearance conceivably leads to improved outcomes at all stages of liver disease. However, available data suggest that the maximum measurable benefit is obtained by treating patients before they reach the stage of compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). Ideally, all patients with chronic hepatitis C should be treated before they develop advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis, since even if sustained virologic response (SVR) reduces the risk of hepatic events (e.g. decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC]) and improves survival, further progression of liver disease and adverse outcomes, including hepatic deaths, cannot be entirely avoided. The hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) correlates closely with the stage of liver disease. Measurements of HVPG in patients with severe fibrosis or cirrhosis treated with DAAs show that those with the highest degree of portal hypertension have the lowest probability of a meaningful reduction of portal pressure after SVR, and remain at significant risk of decompensation. Reduced liver stiffness is commonly observed in patients with cACLD but its role in predicting prognosis is yet to be demonstrated. In patients with decompensated cirrhosis, prevention of further decompensation and of HCC is only weakly associated with SVR. Overall, the main clinical predictors of a high risk of HCC in patients who obtain SVR on DAAs are all indexes strongly reflecting advanced fibrosis and impaired hepatic function. Long-term follow-up of large real-life cohorts of patients treated at all stages of liver disease, but mainly those with mild to moderate fibrosis, will be needed to confirm the impact of SVR among diverse HCV-infected populations and, more importantly, to better stratify patients at higher risk of complications in order to define their correct surveillance.

Aminopyrine breath test predicts liver-related events and death in HCV-related cirrhosis on SVR after DAA therapy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related advanced cirrhosis, the effects of sustained virological response (SVR) by direct antiviral agents (DAAs) on decompensation and liver deaths are less clearcut, since up to 30% of patients do not improve, and no predictors of outcome have been identified. We used 13 C-aminopyrine breath test (ABT) to assess whether its changes can predict liver-related outcomes after DAA treatment in patients with HCV cirrhosis. METHODS: Fifty consecutive patients with HCV cirrhosis were enrolled. Patients were included if they had Child A cirrhosis at risk for decompensation - defined as Child A6 (N = 22, 44%) or previous decompensation (N = 7, 14%) - or Child B cirrhosis (N = 21, 42%) eligible for DAA-based antiviral therapy. ABT was performed at baseline and 12 weeks after the end of antiviral therapy. Patients received sofosbuvir-based regimens. RESULTS: Aminopyrine breath test was available for all 50 patients at baseline. The 120' cumulative dose was directly associated at regression analysis only with albumin levels (P = .001). ABT was available at follow-up week 12 for 41 patients (FUW12), all with SVR, and followed for a median of 25.2 months (range 12.2-32.1 months). Lower Ʌ ABT - defined as changes of 120' cumulative dose from FUW12 to baseline - (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.94-0.99; P = .02) and FUW12 hepatic encephalopathy (HR 19.0, 95% CI 1.16-310.3; P = .03) were the only independent predictors of liver events/death at multivariate Cox regression analysis. The AUC of Ʌ ABT was good (0.87, 95% CI 0.75-0.97), with a delta ≥0% well discriminating patients at lower vs patients at higher risk of liver-related events/death (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with advanced HCV cirrhosis who achieve SVR with DAA, Ʌ ABT assists in assessing the residual likelihood of liver-related events and deaths after viral cure.

Hepatitis C virus eradication by direct antiviral agents abates oxidative stress in patients with advanced liver fibrosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: HCV eradication improves non-hepatic outcomes such as cardiovascular diseases, although without clearly defined mechanisms. In this study we aimed to assess whether improvement of carotid atherosclerosis may be linked to a reduction in systemic oxidative stress after viral clearance. METHODS: We studied a retrospective cohort of 105 patients (age 62.4 ± 11.2 years; 62 men) with F3/F4 fibrosis, characterized by carotid ultrasonography at baseline and at sustained virologic response (SVR) follow-up. Levels of 8-iso-prostaglandin F2α (F2 -isoprostanes) and other oxidative stress markers were measured on frozen sera. Association between change (denoted as Δ) in oxidative stress markers (exposures) and change in carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) (outcome) was examined using multiple linear regression. RESULTS: Subclinical atherosclerosis, defined as the presence of carotid plaque and/or cIMT ≥ 0.9, was present in 72% of the cohort. All patients achieved SVR that led to reduction in cIMT (0.92 ± 0.20 vs 0.83 ± 0.21 mm, P < .001). HCV eradication markedly decreased serum levels of F2 -isoprostanes (620.5 [143.2; 1904.1] vs 119.51 [63.2; 400.6] pg/mL, P < .0001), lipid hydroperoxides (13.8 [6.3; 20.7] vs 4.9 [2.3; 9.6] nmol/µl, P < .0001) and 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (558.9 [321.0; 6301.2] vs 294.51 [215.31; 408.95] pg/mL, P < .0001), whereas increased serum GPx activity (10.44 [4.6; 16.3] vs 13.75 [9.42; 20.63] nmol/min/mL, P = .001). By multiple linear regression analysis ΔcIMT was independently associated with ΔF2 -isoprostanes (ß: 1.746 [0.948; 2.543]; P < .0001) after adjustment for age, baseline F2 -isoprostanes and baseline IMT. CONCLUSIONS: Besides association of lipid peroxidation with severity of liver disease, the reduction in F2 -isoprostanes may be involved in the improvement of atherosclerosis after HCV eradication.

Reduced incidence of type 2 diabetes in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection cleared by direct-acting antiviral therapy: A prospective study.

AIM: To assess the effect of hepatitis C virus (HCV) eradication on type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). incidence. METHODS: A prospective multicentre case-control study was performed, which included 2426 patients with HCV, 42% of whom had liver fibrosis stage F0-F2 and 58% of whom had liver fibrosis stage F3-F4. The study population consisted of a control group including 1099 untreated patients and 1327 cases treated with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). T2DM incidence was assessed during a median (interquartile range) follow-up period of 30 (28-42) months. Risk factors for T2DM were assessed using a Cox regression model (relative risk [RR], hazard ratio [HR], Kaplan-Meier analysis). Insulin sensitivity was evaluated by homeostatic model assessment (HOMA) and changes by repeated-measures ANOVA. Factors independently associated with T2DM were assessed by multivariate analysis. RESULTS: The absolute incidence of T2DM for controls and cases was 28 and 7/1000 person-years, respectively (P = 0.001). In cases compared to controls, HCV clearance reduced the RR and HR of T2DM by 81% and 75% to 93%, respectively (P = 0.001). It was calculated that, for every 15 patients who obtained HCV clearance, one case of T2DM was saved. HCV clearance was associated with significant reductions in HOMA-insulin resistance and HOMA-ß-cell function and an increase in HOMA-insulin sensitivity, as assessed in 384 patients before and after HCV clearance. At multivariate analysis, HCV clearance emerged as independently associated with a reduced T2DM risk. CONCLUSION: The results showed that HCV clearance by DAA treatment reduces T2DM incidence probably by restoring the HCV-induced alteration of glucose homeostasis mechanisms.

Direct-acting antivirals after successful treatment of early hepatocellular carcinoma improve survival in HCV-cirrhotic patients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The effectiveness of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) against hepatitis C virus (HCV), following successful treatment of early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), has been studied extensively. However, the benefit in terms of overall survival (OS) remains to be conclusively demonstrated. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of DAAs on OS, HCC recurrence, and hepatic decompensation. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled 163 consecutive patients with HCV-related cirrhosis and a first diagnosis of early Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0/A HCC, who had achieved a complete radiologic response after curative resection or ablation and were subsequently treated with DAAs. DAA-untreated patients from the ITA.LI.CA. cohort (n = 328) served as controls. After propensity score matching, outcomes of 102 DAA-treated (DAA group) and 102 DAA-untreated patients (No DAA group) were compared. RESULTS: In the DAA group, 7/102 patients (6.9%) died, HCC recurred in 28/102 patients (27.5%) and hepatic decompensation occurred in 6/102 patients (5.9%), after a mean follow-up of 21.4 months. OS was significantly higher in the DAA group compared to the No DAA group (hazard ratio [HR] 0.39; 95% CI0.17-0.91; p = 0.03). HCC recurrence was not significantly different between the DAA and No DAA groups (HR0.70; 95% CI0.44-1.13; p = 0.15). A significant reduction in the rate of hepatic decompensation was observed in the DAA group compared with the No DAA group (HR0.32; 95% CI0.13-0.84; p = 0.02). In the DAA group, sustained virologic response was a significant predictor of OS (HR 0.02; 95% CI 0.00-0.19; p <0.001), HCC recurrence (HR 0.25; 95% CI 0.11-0.57; p <0.001) and hepatic decompensation (HR 0.12; 95% CI 0.02-0.38; p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with HCV-related cirrhosis who had been successfully treated for early HCC, DAAs significantly improved OS compared with No DAA treatment. LAY SUMMARY: We aimed to determine whether direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) significantly improve overall survival in patients with hepatitis C virus-related compensated cirrhosis and a first diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) which has been successfully treated with curative resection or ablation. Using propensity-score matched patients, we found that DAAs improved overall survival and reduced the risk of hepatic decompensation. However, the risk of HCC recurrence was not significantly reduced.

Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With HCV-Associated Cirrhosis Treated With Direct-Acting Antiviral Agents.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Studies have produced conflicting results of the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with hepatitis C virus-associated cirrhosis treated with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). Data from clinics are needed to accurately assess the occurrence rate of HCC in patients with cirrhosis in the real world. METHODS: We collected data from a large prospective study of 2,249 consecutive patients (mean age = 65.4 years, 56.9% male) with hepatitis C virus-associated cirrhosis (90.5% with Child-Pugh class A and 9.5% with Child-Pugh class B) treated with DAAs from March 2015 through July 2016 at 22 academic and community liver centers in Sicily, Italy. HCC occurrence was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier curves. Cox regression analysis was used to identify variables associated with HCC development. RESULTS: A sustained virologic response (SVR) was achieved by 2,140 patients (total = 95.2%; 95.9% with Child Pugh class A and 88.3% with Child Pugh class B; P < .001). Seventy-eight patients (3.5%) developed HCC during a mean follow-up of 14 months (range = 6-24 months). At 1 year after exposure to DAAs, HCC developed in 2.1% of patients with Child-Pugh class A with an SVR and 6.6% of patients with no SVR and in 7.8% of patients with Child-Pugh class B with an SVR and 12.4% of patients with no SVR (P < .001 by log-rank test). Albumin level below 3.5 g/dL (hazard ratio = 1.77, 95% confidence interval = 1.12-2.82, P = .015), platelet count below 120 × 109/L (hazard ratio = 3.89, 95% confidence interval = 2.11-7.15, P < .001), and absence of an SVR (hazard ratio = 3.40, 95% confidence interval = 1.89-6.12, P < .001) were independently associated increased risk for HCC. The mean interval from exposure to DAAs to an HCC diagnosis was 9.8 months (range = 2-22 months) and did not differ significantly between patients with (n = 64, 9.2 months) and without (n = 14, 12.0 months) an SVR (P = .11). A larger proportion of patients with an SVR had a single HCC lesion (78% vs 50% without an SVR; P = .009) or an HCC lesion smaller than 3 cm (58% vs 28% without an SVR; P = .07). CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of data from a large prospective study of patients with hepatitis C virus-associated compensated or decompensated cirrhosis, we found that the SVR to DAA treatment decreased the incidence of HCC over a mean follow-up of 14 months.

Is Transient Elastography Needed for Noninvasive Assessment of High-Risk Varices? The REAL Experience.

INTRODUCTION: The Baveno VI consensus guidelines and an expanded algorithm suggest that transient elastography (TE) and platelet (PLT) count can be used to identify patients with cirrhosis who can avoid esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD). The primary aims of this study were to assess the ability of a simple algorithm, which uses only laboratory parameters, to predict medium/large esophageal varices (EV) in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and cirrhosis from the Rete Sicilia Selezione Terapia-HCV (RESIST-HCV) cohort and to compare the performance of the algorithm with Baveno VI and Expanded Baveno VI criteria. The secondary aim was to assess the role of TE in ruling out large EV. METHODS: In total, 1,381 patients with HCV-associated cirrhosis who had EGD and TE within 1 year of starting treatment with direct-acting antivirals were evaluated. Using multivariate logistic analysis, laboratory variables were selected to determine which were independently associated with medium/large EV to create the RESIST-HCV criteria. These criteria were tested in a training cohort with patients from a single center (Palermo) and validated with patients from the 21 other centers of the RESIST-HCV program (validation cohort). RESULTS: In the entire cohort, medium/large EV were identified in 5 of 216 patients (2.3%) using the Baveno VI criteria and 13 of 497 patients (2.6%) using the Expanded Baveno VI criteria. PLT count and albumin level were independently associated with medium/large EV. The best cut-off values were a PLT count greater than 120 × 10 cells/µL and serum albumin level greater than 3.6 g/dL; negative predictive values (NPVs) were 97.2% and 94.7%, respectively. In the training cohort of 326 patients, 119 (36.5%) met the RESIST-HCV criteria and the NPV was 99.2%. Among 1,055 patients in the validation cohort, 315 (30%) met the RESIST-HCV criteria and the NPV was 98.1%. Adding TE to the RESIST-HCV criteria reduced the avoided EGDs for approximately 25% of patients and the NPV was 98.2%. DISCUSSION: The "easy-to-use" RESIST-HCV algorithm avoids EGD for high-risk EV screening for more than 30% of patients and has the same performance criteria as TE. Using these criteria simplifies the diagnosis of portal hypertension.

Point-of-care HCV RNA testing in the setting of DAA therapy: HCV-FiS (HEpatitis C Virus Fingerstick Study).

HCV-RNA assessment during therapy with Direct-Acting Antiviral (DAA) regimens still relies on assays requiring blood collection and transport to a specialised laboratory, which may compromise linkage to care. GeneXpert-HCV Viral Load (GXHVL) (Cepheid) is a plasma-based assay used at point of care (POC) with a sensitivity of ≤10 IU/mL, and, results available within 2 hours. Fifty-nine consecutive HCV-patients ready for DAAs treatment were enrolled. HCV-RNA was simultaneously tested using Roche TaqMan RT-PCR (venous blood sample) and GXHVL (capillary blood collected by fingerstick), at baseline (BL), week 4 (W4) of therapy, end of therapy (EOT) and week 12 of follow-up (W12FU). Both assays demonstrated undetectable HCV-RNA in all patients at EOT and identified the single case of HCV-relapse at W12FU. GXHVL used as a point-of-care assay in the outpatient setting provides results fully comparable to the laboratory-based test. Its excellent performance and ease of use suggest its adoption in non-specialist settings where simplicity of care is paramount to implement HCV eradication campaigns.