Heterogeneity in influenza seasonality and vaccine effectiveness in Australia, Chile, New Zealand and South Africa: early estimates of the 2019 influenza season.

We compared 2019 influenza seasonality and vaccine effectiveness (VE) in four southern hemisphere countries: Australia, Chile, New Zealand and South Africa. Influenza seasons differed in timing, duration, intensity and predominant circulating viruses. VE estimates were also heterogeneous, with all-ages point estimates ranging from 7-70% (I2: 33%) for A(H1N1)pdm09, 4-57% (I2: 49%) for A(H3N2) and 29-66% (I2: 0%) for B. Caution should be applied when attempting to use southern hemisphere data to predict the northern hemisphere influenza season.

Hepatocellular carcinoma over three decades in Victoria, Australia: epidemiology, diagnosis and trends, 1984-2013.

BACKGROUND: Liver cancer continues to be a health priority in Australia, with the majority attributable to preventable causes, and certain populations at higher risk. AIMS: Epidemiological assessment of incidence, trends and distribution to inform prevention, and reassessment of data in light of recent changes to registry case definitions. METHODS: Reported cases of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Victoria, Australia, 1984-2013, were obtained from the Victorian Cancer Registry. Demographic characteristics were examined, incidence and survival assessed using Poisson and Cox regression, and geographic distribution mapped. Incidence was compared before and after inclusion of non-histologically confirmed cases in Registry data to assess impacts on incidence trends. RESULTS: Diagnoses of HCC rose substantially between 1984 and 2013, increasing sixfold from 0.9 to 5.9 per 100 000. The rate of increase per year accelerated from 5.3% between 1984 and 2003 to 9.5% between 2004 and 2013. Cases were disproportionately male (80%), median age at diagnosis was 66 years and 53% were born overseas. Even during 2004-2013, 5-year survival was only 16%, although higher among younger people, metropolitan residents and people born overseas. Incidence showed strong geographic clustering. The proportion of cases diagnosed clinically increased from 1% during 1984-2004 to 43% in 2009-2013. The revised case definition added 993 cases (27.3% of total). CONCLUSION: Cases of HCC are becoming increasingly common, and revised incidence estimates highlight the impact of case definitions in the context of changing diagnostic approaches. The ongoing burden, disproportionate population distribution and low survival emphasise the importance of prevention and early detection as a public health imperative.

Low interim influenza vaccine effectiveness, Australia, 1 May to 24 September 2017.

In 2017, influenza seasonal activity was high in the southern hemisphere. We present interim influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates from Australia. Adjusted VE was low overall at 33% (95% confidence interval (CI): 17 to 46), 50% (95% CI: 8 to 74) for A(H1)pdm09, 10% (95% CI: -16 to 31) for A(H3) and 57% (95% CI: 41 to 69) for influenza B. For A(H3), VE was poorer for those vaccinated in the current and prior seasons.

Increase in Meningococcal Serogroup W Disease, Victoria, Australia, 2013-2015.

In Victoria, Australia, invasive meningococcal disease caused by Neisseria meningitidis serogroup W increased from 4% of all cases in 2013 to 30% in 2015. This increase resulted largely from strains similar to those in the serogroup W sequence type 11 clonal complex, previously described in the United Kingdom and South America.

Burden of antimicrobial prescribing in primary care attributable to sore throat: a retrospective cohort study of patient record data.

BACKGROUND: Reducing antibiotic use in Australia, and the subsequent impact on antimicrobial resistance, requires multiple, sustained approaches with appropriate resources and support. Additional strategies to reduce antibiotic prescribing include effective vaccines, against pathogens such as Streptococcus pyogenes, the most common bacterial cause of sore throat. As part of efforts towards assessing the benefits of introducing new strategies to reduce antimicrobial prescribing, we aimed to determine the burden of antimicrobial prescribing for sore throat in general practice. METHODS: General practice activity data from 2013 - 2017 derived from the first 8 practices participating in the 'Primary Care Audit, Teaching and Research Open Network' (Patron) program were analysed according to reason for visit (upper respiratory tract infection, URTI, or sore throat) and antibiotic prescription. The main outcome measures were percentage of sore throat or URTI presentations with antibiotic prescription by age. RESULTS: A total of 722,339 visits to general practice were made by 65,449 patients; 5.7% of visits were for URTI with 0.8% meeting the more specific criteria for sore throat. 66.1% of sore throat visits and 36.2% of URTI visits resulted in antibiotic prescription. Penicillin, the recommended antibiotic for sore throat when indicated, was the antibiotic of choice in only 52.9% of sore throat cases prescribed antibiotics. Broader spectrum antibiotics were prescribed more frequently in older age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Frequency of antibiotic prescribing for sore throat is high and broad, despite Australian Therapeutic guideline recommendations. Multiple, sustained interventions to reduce prescribing, including availability of effective S. pyogenes vaccines that could reduce the incidence of streptococcal pharyngitis, could obviate the need to prescribe antibiotics and support ongoing efforts to promote antimicrobial stewardship.

Differential COVID-19 case ascertainment by age and vaccination status in Victoria, Australia: a serosurveillance and record linkage study.

Objectives: To compare serological evidence of prior severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection with linked coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case notification data in Victoria, Australia, and to determine in vitro SARS-CoV-2 neutralisation activity based on prior infection and vaccination history. Design, setting, participants: Four cross-sectional serological surveys were conducted between 30 June and 31 October 2022 (a period of Omicron BA.4/BA.5 dominance) using 1,974 residual serum samples obtained from the Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory. Serological results were linked to COVID-19 case notification and vaccination data. Surrogate virus neutralisation testing was performed to obtain in vitro inhibition estimates by anti-nucleocapsid serostatus and COVID-19 vaccination history. Main outcome measures: Adjusted anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike and nucleocapsid seropositivity by sex, age and region of residence; adjusted proportion of cases notified by anti-nucleocapsid serostatus, age and number of COVID-19 vaccination doses received; adjusted percentage in vitro inhibition against wildtype and Omicron BA.4/BA.5 SARS-CoV-2 variants by anti-nucleocapsid serostatus and COVID-19 vaccination history. Results: The prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibodies was inversely proportional to age. In October 2022, prevalence was 84% (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 75-93%) among 18-29-year-olds, compared to 39% (95% CI: 27-52%) among ≥ 80-year-olds. In most age groups, approximately 40% of COVID-19 cases appear to have been notified via existing surveillance mechanisms. Case notification was highest among individuals older than 80 years and people who had received COVID-19 vaccine booster doses. In vitro neutralisation of Omicron BA.4/BA.5 sub-variants was highest for individuals with evidence of both prior infection and booster vaccination. Conclusions: Under-notification of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the Victorian population is not uniform across age and vaccination strata. Seroprevalence data that give insights into case notification behaviour provide additional context for the interpretation of existing COVID-19 surveillance information.

Intraseason decline in influenza vaccine effectiveness during the 2016 southern hemisphere influenza season: A test-negative design study and phylogenetic assessment.

BACKGROUND: We estimated the effectiveness of seasonal inactivated influenza vaccine and the potential influence of timing of immunization on vaccine effectiveness (VE) using data from the 2016 southern hemisphere influenza season. METHODS: Data were pooled from three routine syndromic sentinel surveillance systems in general practices in Australia. Each system routinely collected specimens for influenza testing from patients presenting with influenza-like illness. Next generation sequencing was used to characterize viruses. Using a test-negative design, VE was estimated based on the odds of vaccination among influenza-positive cases as compared to influenza-negative controls. Subgroup analyses were used to estimate VE by type, subtype and lineage, as well as age group and time between vaccination and symptom onset. RESULTS: A total of 1085 patients tested for influenza in 2016 were included in the analysis, of whom 447 (41%) tested positive for influenza. The majority of detections were influenza A/H3N2 (74%). One-third (31%) of patients received the 2016 southern hemisphere formulation influenza vaccine. Overall, VE was estimated at 40% (95% CI: 18-56%). VE estimates were highest for patients immunized within two months prior to symptom onset (VE: 60%; 95% CI: 26-78%) and lowest for patients immunized >4 months prior to symptom onset (VE: 19%; 95% CI: -73-62%). DISCUSSION: Overall, the 2016 influenza vaccine showed good protection against laboratory-confirmed infection among general practice patients. Results by duration of vaccination suggest a significant decline in effectiveness during the 2016 influenza season, indicating immunization close to influenza season offered optimal protection.

Disease burden and health-care clinic attendances for young children in remote aboriginal communities of northern Australia.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the frequency of presentations and infectious-disease burden at primary health care (PHC) services in young children in two remote Aboriginal communities in tropical northern Australia. METHODS: Children born after 1 January 2001, who were resident at 30 September 2005 and for whom consent was obtained, were studied. Clinic records were reviewed for all presentations between 1 January 2002 and 30 September 2005. Data collected included reason for presentation (if infectious), antibiotic prescription and referral to hospital. FINDINGS: There were 7273 clinic presentations for 174 children aged 0-4.75 years, 55% of whom were male. The median presentation rate per child per year was 16 (23 in the first year of life). Upper-respiratory-tract infections (32%) and skin infections (18%) were the most common infectious reasons for presentation. First presentations for scabies and skin sores peaked at the age of 2 months. By 1 year of age, 63% and 69% of children had presented with scabies and skin sores, respectively. CONCLUSION: These Aboriginal children average about two visits per month to PHC centres during their first year of life. This high rate is testament to the disease burden, the willingness of Aboriginal people to use health services and the high workload experienced by these health services. Scabies and skin sores remain significant health problems, with this study describing a previously undocumented burden of these conditions commencing within the first few months of life. Appropriate prevention and treatment strategies should encompass early infancy to reduce the high burden of infectious diseases in this population.

Infection is the major component of the disease burden in aboriginal and non-aboriginal Australian children: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Infection accounts for the majority of pediatric mortality and morbidity in developing countries, but there are limited data on the infectious diseases burden in children from developed countries. We investigated reasons for hospitalization before age 2 years in a birth cohort of Western Australian Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children. METHODS: Data on live births between January 1990 and December 2000, and corresponding deaths and hospitalizations in the first 2 years of life, were obtained through linked population-based data. RESULTS: Almost half the cohort of 270,068 children were hospitalized at least once. Aboriginal children had significantly higher admission rates (2196 vs. 779 per 1000 live births), stayed longer and were more likely to die in hospital than non-Aboriginal children. Infections (mainly respiratory and gastrointestinal) were the most common reason for hospitalization, accounting for 34% of all admissions, with higher rates in Aboriginal (1114 per 1000 live births) than non-Aboriginal children (242 per 1000) (P < 0.001). Over time, admission rates for infections declined in Aboriginal children but increased in non-Aboriginal children. Aboriginal children were admitted 14 times more often for pneumonia than non-Aboriginal children. CONCLUSIONS: Infections are the leading cause of hospitalization in children under 2 years of age. The continuing heavy burden of serious infections, borne disproportionately by Aboriginal children, needs to be alleviated. Public health interventions such as the development and universal implementation of vaccines for respiratory syncytial virus, rotavirus and influenza are needed, while adequate funding must be committed to Indigenous health services and training.

Understanding influenza vaccine protection in the community: an assessment of the 2013 influenza season in Victoria, Australia.

BACKGROUND: The influenza virus undergoes frequent antigenic drift, necessitating annual review of the composition of the influenza vaccine. Vaccination is an important strategy for reducing the impact and burden of influenza, and estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE) each year informs surveillance and preventative measures. We aimed to describe the influenza season and to estimate the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine in Victoria, Australia, in 2013. METHODS: Routine laboratory notifications, general practitioner sentinel surveillance (including a medical deputising service) data, and sentinel hospital admission surveillance data for the influenza season (29 April to 27 October 2013) were collated in Victoria, Australia, to describe influenza-like illness or confirmed influenza during the season. General practitioner sentinel surveillance data were used to estimate VE against medically-attended laboratory confirmed influenza. VE was estimated using the case test negative design as 1-adjusted odds ratio (odds of vaccination in cases compared with controls) × 100%. Cases tested positive for influenza while non-cases (controls) tested negative. Estimates were adjusted for age group, week of onset, time to swabbing and co-morbidities. RESULTS: The 2013 influenza season was characterised by relatively low activity with a late peak. Influenza B circulation preceded that of influenza A(H1)pdm09, with very little influenza A(H3) circulation. Adjusted VE for all influenza was 55% (95%CI: -11, 82), for influenza A(H1)pdm09 was 43% (95%CI: -132, 86), and for influenza B was 56% (95%CI: -51, 87) Imputation of missing data raised the influenza VE point estimate to 64% (95%CI: 13, 85). CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians can continue to promote a positive approach to influenza vaccination, understanding that inactivated influenza vaccines prevent at least 50% of laboratory-confirmed outcomes in hospitals and the community.

Mortality due to viral hepatitis in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010: new evidence of an urgent global public health priority demanding action.

The recently published Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010) contains accurate, contemporary estimates of human morbidity and mortality, with substantial changes in the patterns of illness observed over the last two decades. One of the most significant alterations to these estimates has been the recognition that viral hepatitis is a leading cause of human mortality, with an estimated 1.29 million deaths worldwide in 2010. The global community must act to address emerging health priorities identified by GBD 2010, including the need to provide treatment and care to people living with viral hepatitis, especially in resource-poor settings.

Pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 infection in Victoria, Australia: no evidence for harm or benefit following receipt of seasonal influenza vaccine in 2009.

Conflicting findings regarding the level of protection offered by seasonal influenza vaccination against pandemic influenza H1N1 have been reported. We performed a test-negative case control study using sentinel patients from general practices in Victoria to estimate seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness against laboratory proven infection with pandemic influenza. Cases were defined as patients with an influenza-like illness who tested positive for influenza while controls had an influenza-like illness but tested negative. We found no evidence of significant protection from seasonal vaccine against pandemic influenza virus infection in any age group. Age-stratified point estimates, adjusted for pandemic phase, ranged from 44% in persons aged less than 5 years to -103% (odds ratio=2.03) in persons aged 50-64 years. Vaccine effectiveness, adjusted for age group and pandemic phase, was 3% (95% CI -48 to 37) for all patients. Our study confirms the results from our previous interim report, and other studies, that failed to demonstrate benefit or harm from receipt of seasonal influenza vaccine in patients with confirmed infection with pandemic influenza H1N1 2009.

Crowding and other strong predictors of upper respiratory tract carriage of otitis media-related bacteria in Australian Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children.

BACKGROUND: Streptococcus pneumoniae, Moraxella catarrhalis, and nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae is associated with otitis media (OM). Data are limited on risk factors for carriage of these pathogens, particularly for Indigenous populations. We investigated predictors of nasopharyngeal carriage in Australian Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children. METHODS: Nasopharyngeal aspirates were collected up to 7 times before age 2 years from 100 Aboriginal and 180 non-Aboriginal children. Longitudinal modeling estimated effects of environmental factors and concurrent carriage of other bacteria on the probability of bacterial carriage. We present a novel method combining the effects of number of household members and size of house into an overall crowding model. RESULTS: Each additional household member increased the risk of carriage of S. pneumoniae (odds ratio [OR] = 1.45 per additional Aboriginal child in a 4-room house, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.15-1.84; OR = 2.34 per additional non-Aboriginal child, 95% CI: 1.76-3.10), with similar effect sizes for M. catarrhalis, and nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae. However, living in a larger house attenuated this effect among Aboriginal children. Daycare attendance predicted carriage of the 3 OM-associated bacteria among non-Aboriginal children. Exclusive breast-feeding at 6 to 8 weeks protected against Streptococcus aureus carriage (OR = 0.42, 95% CI: 0.19-0.90 in Aboriginal children and OR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.25-0.96 in non-Aboriginal children). OM-associated bacteria were more likely to be present if there was concurrent carriage of the other OM-associated species. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the importance of household transmission in carriage of OM bacteria, underscoring the need to reduce the crowding in Aboriginal households.

A decline in varicella but an uncertain impact on zoster following varicella vaccination in Victoria, Australia.

Varicella vaccine was licensed in Australia in 1999 and publicly funded in 2005. We examined trends in varicella and zoster hospitalisations and community consultations in Victoria during periods of no vaccine, private availability of vaccine and funded vaccination. Varicella hospitalisation rates declined 7% per year (95% CI 5-9%) from 2000 to 2007, predominately in children under five (12% per year, 95% CI 9-16%). A similar decline was seen in community data. The zoster hospitalisation rate increased from 1998 to 2007 (5% per year, 95% CI 3-6%), before introduction of varicella vaccine. Among those aged 80 and over the hospitalisation rate increased 5% per year (95% CI 3-7%) from 1998 to 2007. Zoster increased in community data from 2001.

Influenza surveillance within hospitals: what is the world doing?

Influenza within hospitals is receiving increasing attention as a result of planning for an influenza pandemic and the magnitude and severity of the 2007 influenza season in Australia. This article reviews current approaches to influenza surveillance of admitted patients, as opposed to surveillance of emergency departments, in hospitals internationally. Most examples came from the United States of America and Canada, although systems have been described in the United Kingdom and Japan. In-hospital surveillance of influenza occurs within broader surveillance systems established by national governments, and through other systems established by sub-national governments and individual hospitals. Systems vary in focus, i.e. laboratory confirmed influenza or influenza-like illness, and some are labour intensive while others incorporate differing degrees of automation. The approach to influenza surveillance within hospitals will depend on objectives and available resources, although an automated approach is likely to have greater longevity as labour requirements are reduced.

Comparison between nasal swabs and nasopharyngeal aspirates for, and effect of time in transit on, isolation of Streptococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus aureus, Haemophilus influenzae, and Moraxella catarrhalis.

We assessed the impact of the use of nasal swabs or nasopharyngeal aspirates and the time from specimen collection to storage at -70 degrees C on bacterial isolation. Haemophilus influenzae was isolated significantly less often from swabs than from nasopharyngeal aspirates. Samples in transit for >3 days were half as likely to grow Streptococcus pneumoniae and H. influenzae as those in transit for < or =3 days. There was no statistically significant difference for either Moraxella catarrhalis or Staphylococcus aureus.