Epidemiological trends and trajectories of MAFLD-associated hepatocellular carcinoma 2002-2033: the ITA.LI.CA database.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) represents a new inclusive definition of the whole spectrum of liver diseases associated to metabolic disorders. The main objective of this study was to compare patients with MAFLD and non-MAFLD with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) included in a nationally representative cohort. METHODS: We analysed 6882 consecutive patients with HCC enrolled from 2002 to 2019 by 23 Italian Liver Cancer centres to compare epidemiological and future trends in three subgroups: pure, single aetiology MAFLD (S-MAFLD); mixed aetiology MAFLD (metabolic and others, M-MAFLD); and non-MAFLD HCC. RESULTS: MAFLD was diagnosed in the majority of patients with HCC (68.4%). The proportion of both total MAFLD and S-MAFLD HCC significantly increased over time (from 50.4% and 3.6% in 2002-2003, to 77.3% and 28.9% in 2018-2019, respectively, p<0.001). In Italy S-MAFLD HCC is expected to overcome M-MAFLD HCC in about 6 years. Patients with S-MAFLD HCC were older, more frequently men and less frequently cirrhotic with clinically relevant portal hypertension and a surveillance-related diagnosis. They had more frequently large tumours and extrahepatic metastases. After weighting, and compared with patients with non-MAFLD, S-MAFLD and M-MAFLD HCC showed a significantly lower overall (p=0.026, p=0.004) and HCC-related (p<0.001, for both) risk of death. Patients with S-MAFLD HCC showed a significantly higher risk of non-HCC-related death (p=0.006). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of MAFLD HCC in Italy is rapidly increasing to cover the majority of patients with HCC. Despite a less favourable cancer stage at diagnosis, patients with MAFLD HCC have a lower risk of HCC-related death, suggesting reduced cancer aggressiveness.

Predictors of non-transplantable recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with frontline liver resection.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence is common in patients treated with liver resection (LR). In this study, we aimed to evaluate the incidence and preoperative predictors of non-transplantable recurrence in patients with single HCC ≤5 cm treated with frontline LR. METHODS: From the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database, 512 patients receiving frontline LR for single HCC ≤5 cm were retrieved. Incidence and predictors of recurrence beyond Milan criteria (MC) and up-to-seven criteria were compared between patients with HCC <4 and ≥4 cm. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 4.2 years, the overall recurrence rate was 55.9%. In the ≥4 cm group, a significantly higher proportion of patients recurred beyond MC at first recurrence (28.9% vs. 14.1%; p < 0.001) and overall (44.4% vs. 25.2%; p < 0.001). Similar results were found considering recurrence beyond up-to-seven criteria. Compared to those with larger tumours, patients with HCC <4 cm had a longer recurrence-free survival and overall survival. HCC size ≥4 cm and high alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level at the time of LR were independent predictors of recurrence beyond MC (and up-to-seven criteria). In the subgroup of patients with available histologic information (n = 354), microvascular invasion and microsatellite lesions were identified as additional independent risk factors for non-transplantable recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the high recurrence rate, LR for single HCC ≤5 cm offers excellent long-term survival. Non-transplantable recurrence is predicted by HCC size and AFP levels, among pre-operatively available variables. High-risk patients could be considered for frontline LT or listed for transplantation even before recurrence.

Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound Findings in Patients with Rare Solitary Necrotic Nodule of the Liver - a Multicenter Report.

PURPOSE: This multicenter retrospective study highlights the contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) findings in a series of histologically proven solitary necrotic nodules (SNN) of the liver, a poorly understood pathologic entity of uncertain origin that mimics malignancy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 22 patients (M/F 13/9; mean age 59.4 years, SD ±â€Š10.7, range 35-81) with histological diagnosis of SNN and CEUS were selected from clinical, imaging, and pathological archives of 7 US interventional centers, each of which provided 1 to 6 cases (mean 2.8). Pathological diagnosis was made on 20 US-guided biopsies and 2 surgical specimens. 2 patients had 2 SNNs with identical CEUS findings so that imaging analysis was carried out on 24 nodules. RESULTS: SNN was an incidental finding in healthy people in 10 cases (45.5 %), and it was discovered during follow-up for either known extrahepatic malignancies (9 cases = 41 %) or chronic liver disease (3 cases = 13.5 %). SNNs had a mean size of 19.3 mm (SD ±â€Š6.5, range 9-40). On B-mode US, SNNs appeared hypoechoic in 14 cases (66.7 %), "target-like" in 7 cases (29.2 %), and homogeneously hyperechoic in 1 case (4.1 %). On CEUS, all lesions appeared devoid of contrast enhancement ("punched out" aspect) in the arterial, portal venous, and late phases after US contrast agent injection. A uniformly thin, hyperenhancing ring in the early arterial phase and isoenhanced with the surrounding parenchyma in the portal venous and late phases was found in 10 nodules (41.6 %). Clinical and imaging follow-up (mean duration 42.2 months, SD ±â€Š34.9, range 2-108) was available in 15 patients with 16 SNNs: no changes in size and echostructure were seen. CONCLUSION: CEUS can contribute to the diagnosis of SNN when a "punched out" appearance in all vascular phases with or without thin rim enhancement in the very early arterial phase is present in healthy subjects in whom a focal liver lesion is incidentally found. In patients with a history of chronic liver disease or malignancy, US-guided biopsy represents the unavoidable first-line diagnostic modality.

Pattern of macrovascular invasion in hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), macrovascular invasion (MaVI) limits treatment options and decreases survival. Detailed data on the relationship between MaVI extension and patients' characteristics, and its impact on patients' outcome are limited. We evaluated the prevalence and extension of MaVI in a large cohort of consecutive HCC patients, analysing its association with liver disease and tumour characteristics, as well as with treatments performed and patients' survival. METHODS: We analysed data of 4774 patients diagnosed with HCC recorded in the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database (2008-2018). Recursive partition analysis (RPA) was performed to evaluate interactions between MaVI, clinical variables and treatment, exploring the inter-relationship determining overall survival. RESULTS: MaVI prevalence was 11.1%, and median survival of these patients was 6.0 months (95% CI, 5.1-7.1). MaVI was associated with younger age at diagnosis, presence of symptoms, worse Performance Status (PS) and liver function, high alphafetoprotein levels and large HCCs. MaVI extension was associated with worse PS, ascites and greater impairment in liver function. RPA identified patients' categories with different treatment indications and survival, ranging from 2.4 months in those with PS > 1 and ascites, regardless of MaVI extension (receiving best supportive care in 90.3% of cases), to 14.1 months in patients with PS 0-1, no ascites and Vp1-Vp2 MaVI (treated with surgery in 19.1% of cases). CONCLUSIONS: MaVI presence and extension, together with PS and ascites, significantly affect patients' survival and treatment selection. The decision tree based on these parameters may help assess patients' prognosis and inform therapeutic decisions.

The changing scenario of hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy: an update.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is changing in most areas of the world. This study aimed at updating the changing scenario of aetiology, clinical presentation, management and prognosis of HCC in Italy during the last 15 years. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database included 6034 HCC patients managed in 23 centres from 2004 to 2018. Patients were divided into three groups according to the date of cancer diagnosis (2004-2008, 2009-2013 and 2014-2018). RESULTS: The main results were: (i) a progressive patient ageing; (ii) a progressive increase of non-viral cases and, particularly, of 'metabolic' and 'metabolic + alcohol' HCCs; (iii) a slightly decline of cases diagnosed under surveillance, but with an incremental use of the semiannual schedule; (iv) a favourable cancer stage migration; (v) an increased use of radiofrequency ablation to the detriment of percutaneous ethanol injection; (vi) improved outcomes of ablative and transarterial treatments; (vii) an improved overall survival (adjusted for the lead time in surveyed patients) in the last calendar period, particularly in viral patients; (viii) a large gap between the number of potential candidates (according to oncologic criteria and age) to liver transplant and that of transplanted patients. CONCLUSIONS: During the last 15 years several aspects of HCC scenario have changed, as well as its management. The improvement in patient survival observed in the last period was likely because of a larger use of thermal ablation with respect to the less effective alcohol injection and to an improved management of intermediate stage patients.

Monofocal hepatocellular carcinoma: How much does size matter?

BACKGROUND & AIMS: According to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system, monofocal hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is classified as early (BCLC A) irrespective of its size, even though controversies still exist regarding staging and treatment of large tumours. We aimed at evaluating the appropriate staging and treatment for large (>5 cm) monofocal (HCC). METHODS: From the Italian Liver Cancer database, we selected 924 patients with small early monofocal HCC (2-5 cm; SEM-HCC), 163 patients with larger tumours (>5 cm; LEM-HCC) and 1048 intermediate stage patients (BCLC B). RESULTS: LEM-HCC patients had a worse overall survival (OS) than SEM-HCC (31.0 vs 49.0 months; P < .0001), and this was confirmed at multivariate analysis (HR 1.63, 95% CI 1.29-2.05; P < .0001). The small difference in OS between LEM-HCC and BCLC B patients (31.0 vs 27.0 months; P = .03) disappeared in the multivariate model (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.77-1.25; P = .89). In all monofocal tumours, treatment was the strongest independent predictor of survival, with a progressively decreasing survival benefit moving from "curative" to "palliative" therapies. The survival of resected patients with LEM-HCC was significantly shorter than that of SEM-HCC (44.0 vs 78.0 months; P = .002), but liver resection provided the highest survival benefit in both groups compared to other treatments. CONCLUSIONS: Monofocal HCC larger than 5 cm should not be staged as BCLC A and either a different staging system or a different subgrouping of patients (e.g. BCLC AB) should be used. Liver resection, if feasible, remains the recommended treatment for all these patients.

Role of Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound in the Detection of Complications After Ultrasound-Guided Liver Interventional Procedures.

The role of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) in interventional ultrasound-guided procedures in the liver has been increasingly recognized. However, little is known about the capability of CEUS for diagnosing complications after liver biopsy and ablation with special regard to postprocedural hemorrhage. The aim of this Pictorial Essay is to present the CEUS features of a wide spectrum of vascular complications (with or without bleeding) and injuries of the surrounding abdominal and chest wall occurring after liver interventional procedures.

Hepatocellular carcinoma in adult thalassemia patients: an expert opinion based on current evidence.

Beta-thalassemia represents a heterogeneous group of haemoglobin inherited disorders, among the most common genetic diseases in the world, frequent in the Mediterranean basin. As beta-thalassemia patients' survival has increased over time, previously unknown complications are observed with increasing frequency. Among them, an increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been registered. Our aim is to reduce inequalities in diagnosis and treatment and to offer patients univocal recommendations in any institution.The members of the panel - gastroenterologists, radiologists, surgeons and oncologists -were selected on the basis of their publication records and expertise. Thirteen clinical questions, derived from clinical needs, and an integration of all the committee members' suggestions, were formulated. Modified Delphi approach involving a detailed literature review and the collective judgement of experts, was applied to this work.Thirteen statements were derived from expert opinions' based on the current literature, on recently developed reviews and on technological advancements. Each statement is discussed in a short paragraph reporting the current key evidence. As this is an emerging issue, the number of papers on HCC in beta-thalassemia patients is limited and based on anecdotal cases rather than on randomized controlled studies. Therefore, the panel has discussed, step by step, the possible differences between beta-thalassemia and non beta-thalassemia patients. Despite the paucity of the literature, practical and concise statements were generated.This paper offers a practical guide organized by statements describing how to manage HCC in patients with beta-thalassemia.

Patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma need a personalized management: A lesson from clinical practice.

The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) advanced stage (BCLC C) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) includes a heterogeneous population, where sorafenib alone is the recommended treatment. In this study, our aim was to assess treatment and overall survival (OS) of BCLC C patients subclassified according to clinical features (performance status [PS], macrovascular invasion [MVI], extrahepatic spread [EHS] or MVI + EHS) determining their allocation to this stage. From the Italian Liver Cancer database, we analyzed 835 consecutive BCLC C patients diagnosed between 2008 and 2014. Patients were subclassified as: PS1 alone (n = 385; 46.1%), PS2 alone (n = 146; 17.5%), MVI (n = 224; 26.8%), EHS (n = 51; 6.1%), and MVI + EHS (n = 29; 3.5%). MVI, EHS, and MVI + EHS patients had larger and multifocal/massive HCCs and higher alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels than PS1 and PS2 patients. Median OS significantly declined from PS1 (38.6 months) to PS2 (22.3 months), EHS (11.2 months), MVI (8.2 months), and MVI + EHS (3.1 months; P < 0.001). Among MVI patients, OS was longer in those with peripheral than with central (portal trunk) MVI (11.2 vs. 7.1 months; P = 0.005). The most frequent treatments were: curative approaches in PS1 (39.7%), supportive therapy in PS2 (41.8%), sorafenib in MVI (39.3%) and EHS (37.3%), and best supportive care in MVI + EHS patients (51.7%). Independent prognostic factors were: Model for End-stage Liver Disease score, Child-Pugh class, ascites, platelet count, albumin, tumor size, MVI, EHS, AFP levels, and treatment type. CONCLUSION: BCLC C stage does not identify patients homogeneous enough to be allocated to a single stage. PS1 alone is not sufficient to include a patient into this stage. The remaining patients should be subclassified according to PS and tumor features, and new patient-tailored therapeutic indications are needed. (Hepatology 2018;67:1784-1796).

Restaging Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Before Additional Treatment Decisions: A Multicenter Cohort Study.

Prognostic assessment of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at the time of diagnosis remains controversial and becomes even more complex at the time of restaging when new variables need to be considered. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the prognostic utility of restaging patients before proceeding with additional therapies for HCC. Two independent Italian prospective databases were used to identify 1,196 (training cohort) and 648 (validation cohort) consecutive patients with HCC treated over the same study period (2008-2015) who had complete restaging before decisions about additional therapies. The performance of the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) prognostic score at restaging was compared with that of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Hong Kong Liver Cancer, and Cancer of the Liver Italian Program systems. A multivariable Cox survival analysis was performed to identify baseline, restaging, or dynamic variables that were able to improve the predictive performance of the prognostic systems. At restaging, 35.3% of patients maintained stable disease; most patients were either down-staged by treatment (27.2%) or had disease progression (37.5%). The ITA.LI.CA scoring system at restaging demonstrated the best prognostic performance in both the training and validation cohorts (c-index 0.707 and 0.722, respectively) among all systems examined. On multivariable analysis, several variables improved the prognostic ability of the ITA.LI.CA score at restaging, including progressive disease after the first treatment, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease at restaging, and choice of nonsurgical treatment as additional therapy. A new ITA.LI.CA restaging model was created that demonstrated high discriminative power in both the training and validation cohorts (c-index 0.753 and 0.745, respectively). CONCLUSION: Although the ITA.LI.CA score demonstrated the best prognostic performance at restaging, other variables should be considered to improve the prognostic assessment of patients at the time of deciding additional therapies for HCC.

The concept of therapeutic hierarchy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) prognostic system for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has recently been proposed and validated. We sought to explore the relationship among the ITA.LI.CA prognostic variables (ie tumour stage, functional score based on performance status and Child-Pugh score, and alpha-fetoprotein), treatment selection and survival outcome in HCC patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We analysed 4,867 consecutive HCC patients undergoing six main treatment strategies (liver transplantation, LT; liver resection, LR; ablation, ABL; intra-arterial therapy, IAT; Sorafenib, SOR; and best supportive care, BSC) and enrolled during 2002-2015 in a multicenter Italian database. In order to control pretreatment imbalances in observed variables, a machine learning methodology was used and inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) was calculated. An IPTW-adjusted multivariate survival model that included ITA.LI.CA prognostic variables, treatment period and treatment strategy was then developed. The survival benefit of HCC treatments was described as a hazard ratio (95% confidence interval), using BSC as a reference value and as predicted median survival. RESULTS: After the IPTW, the six treatment groups became well balanced for most baseline characteristics. In the IPTW-adjusted multivariate survival model, treatment strategy was found to be the strongest survival predictor, irrespective of ITA.LI.CA prognostic variables and treatment period. The survival benefit of different therapies over BSC was: LT = 0.19 (0.18-0.20); RES = 0.40 (0.37-0.42); ABL 0.42 (0.40-0.44); IAT = 0.58 (0.55-0.61); SOR = 0.92 (0.87-0.97). This multivariate model was then used to predict median survival for each therapy within each ITA.LI.CA stage. CONCLUSION: The concept of therapeutic hierarchy was established within each ITA.LI.CA stage.

Correction: Application of the Intermediate-Stage Subclassification to Patients With Untreated Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

In the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) Group, contributor name Alberta Capelli is misspelled and should be corrected to Alberta Cappelli.

Metabolic disorders across hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic disorders are well-known risk factors for HCC. Conversely, their impact on the natural history of HCC is not established. This study aimed at evaluating the impact of metabolic disorders on clinical features, treatment and survival of HCC patients regardless of its aetiology. METHODS: We analysed the ITA.LI.CA database regarding 839 HCC patients prospectively collected. The following metabolic features were analysed: BMI, diabetes, arterial hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia and hypertriglyceridaemia. According to these features, patients were divided into 3 groups: 0-1, 2 and 3-5 metabolic features. RESULTS: As compared with patients with 0-1 metabolic features, patients with 3-5 features showed lower percentage of HCC diagnosis on surveillance (P = .021), larger tumours (P = .038), better liver function (higher percentage of Child-Pugh class A [P = .007] and MELD < 10 [P = .003]), higher percentage of metastasis (P = .024) and lower percentage of portal vein thrombosis (P = .010). The BCLC stage and treatment options were similar among the 3 groups, with the exception of a less frequent access to loco-regional therapies for BCLC stage B patients with 3-5 features (P = .012). Overall survival and survival according to BCLC stage and/or treatment did not significantly differ among the 3 groups. Only using a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, diabetic patients showed a lower survival (P = .046). MELD score, HCC morphology, nodule size, BCLC stage, portal vein thrombosis and metastasis were independent predictors of lead-time adjusted survival. CONCLUSIONS: Our "real world" study suggests that metabolic disorders shape the clinical presentation of HCC but do not seem to play a major role in setting patient survival.

Biopsy of Liver Target Lesions under Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound Guidance - A Multi-Center Study.

PURPOSE: To retrospectively characterize the prevalence and impact of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) as a guidance technique for the biopsy of liver target lesions (LTLs) at six interventional ultrasound centers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The six participating centers retrospectively selected all patients in whom biopsy needles were positioned in LTLs during CEUS. The prevalence of CEUS-guided biopsies at each center between 2005 and 2016, contrast agent consumption, procedure indications, diagnostic yield and complications were assessed. Informed consent was obtained for all patients. RESULTS: CEUS-guided biopsy of LTLs was carried out in 103 patients (68 M/35 F, median age: 69 yrs) with 103 liver target lesions (median size: 20 mm) using cutting needles (18 - 20 g) in 94 cases (91.2 %). CEUS-guided biopsy represented 2.6 % (range: 0.8 - 7.7 %) of 3818 biopsies on LTLs carried out at the participating centers. Indications to CEUS-guided biopsy were: a target lesion not visible on non-enhanced US (27.2 %), improvement of conspicuity of the target (33 %), choice of non-necrotic area inside the target (39.8 %). 26 patients (25.2 %) had a previously non-diagnostic cyto-histological exam. The diagnostic accuracy of the technique was 99 %. No major complications followed infusion of contrast agent or biopsy performance. CONCLUSION: The indications for CEUS-guided biopsy for LTLs are limited, but CEUS can be useful in challenging clinical scenarios, e. g. poorly visualized or invisible lesions or sampling of non-necrotic areas in the target lesions. There is also a potential advantage in using CEUS to guide repeat biopsies after unsuccessful sampling performed using the standard ultrasound technique.

Hepatic decompensation is the major driver of death in HCV-infected cirrhotic patients with successfully treated early hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Assessment of long-term outcome is required in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients with cirrhosis, who have been successfully treated for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage A hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, problems arise due to the lack of models accounting for early changes during follow-up. The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of early events (HCC recurrence or hepatic decompensation within 12months of complete radiological response) on 5-year overall survival (OS) in a large cohort of patients with HCV and cirrhosis, successfully treated HCC. METHODS: A total of 328 consecutive Caucasian patients with HCV-related cirrhosis and BCLC stage 0/A HCC who had complete radiological response after curative resection or thermal ablation were prospectively recruited to this study. Primary endpoint of the study was 5-year OS. Independent baseline and time-dependent predictors of 5-year OS were identified by Cox model. RESULTS: The observed 5-year survival rate was 44%. The observed HCC early recurrence and early hepatic decompensation rate were 21% and 10%, respectively. Early hepatic decompensation (Hazard Ratio [HR] 7.52; 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.23-13.48) and HCC early recurrence as time-dependent covariates (HR 2.50; 95%CI: 1.23-5.05), presence of esophageal varices at baseline (HR 1.66; 95% CI: 1.02-2.70) and age (HR 1.04; 95% CI: 1.02-1.07) were significantly associated with the 5-year OS. CONCLUSION: Survival in HCV-infected patients with cirrhosis and successfully treated HCC is influenced by early hepatic decompensation. Our study indirectly suggests that direct-acting antiviral agents could improve OS of HCC patients through long-term preservation of liver function, resulting in a lower cirrhosis-related mortality and a greater change of receiving curative treatments. LAY SUMMARY: Survival in hepatitis C virus (HCV) infected patients with cirrhosis and successfully treated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), is mainly influenced by early hepatic decompensation. HCV eradication after treatment with new direct-acting antiviral agents could improve overall survival of HCC patients through long-term preservation of liver function.

A meta-analysis of single HCV-untreated arm of studies evaluating outcomes after curative treatments of HCV-related hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Determining risk for recurrence or survival after curative resection or ablation in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is important for stratifying patients according to expected outcomes in future studies of adjuvant therapy in the era of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). The aims of this meta-analysis were to estimate the recurrence and survival probabilities of HCV-related early HCC following complete response after potentially curative treatment and to identify predictors of recurrence and survival. METHODS: Studies reporting time-dependent outcomes (HCC recurrence or death) after potentially curative treatment of HCV-related early HCC were identified in MEDLINE through May 2016. Data on patient populations and outcomes were extracted from each study by three independent observers and combined using a distribution-free summary survival curve. Primary outcomes were actuarial probabilities of recurrence and survival. RESULTS: Eleven studies met the inclusion criteria. Pooled estimates of actuarial recurrence rates were 7.4% at 6 months and 47.0% at 2 years. Pooled estimates of actuarial survival rates were 79.8% at 3 years and 58.6% at 5 years. Heterogeneity among studies was highly significant for all outcomes. By univariate meta-regression analyses, lower serum albumin, randomized controlled trial study design and follow-up were independently associated with higher recurrence risk, whereas tumour size and alpha-foetoprotein levels were associated with higher mortality. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis showed that recurrence risk and survival are extremely variable in patients with successfully treated HCV-related HCC, providing a useful benchmark for indirect comparisons of the benefits of DAAs and for a correct design of randomized controlled trials in the adjuvant setting.

Curative therapies are superior to standard of care (transarterial chemoembolization) for intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer intermediate stage (BCLC-B) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) includes extremely heterogeneous patients in terms of tumour burden and liver function. Transarterial-chemoembolization (TACE) is the first-line treatment for these patients although it may be risky/useless for someone, while others could undergo curative treatments. This study assesses the treatment type performed in a large cohort of BCLC-B patients and its outcome. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of 485 consecutive BCLC-B patients from the ITA.LI.CA database diagnosed with naïve HCC after 1999. Patients were stratified by treatment. RESULTS: 29 patients (6%) were lost to follow-up before receiving treatment. Treatment distribution was: TACE (233, 51.1%), curative treatments (145 patients, 31.8%), sorafenib (18, 3.9%), other (39, 8.5%), best supportive care (BSC) (21, 4.6%). Median survival (95% CI) was 45 months (37.4-52.7) for curative treatments, 30 (24.7-35.3) for TACE, 14 (10.5-17.5) for sorafenib, 14 (5.2-22.7) for other treatments and 10 (6.0-14.2) for BSC (P<.0001). Independent prognosticators were gender and treatment. Curative treatments reduced mortality (HR 0.197, 95%CI: 0.098-0.395) more than TACE (HR 0.408, 95%CI: 0.211-0.789) (P<.0001) as compared with BSC. Propensity score matching confirmed the superiority of curative therapies over TACE. CONCLUSIONS: In everyday practice TACE represents the first-line therapy in an half of patients with naïve BCLC-B HCC since treatment choice is driven not only by liver function and nodule characteristics, but also by contraindications to procedures, comorbidities, age and patient opinion. The treatment type is an independent prognostic factor in BCLC-B patients and curative options offer the best outcome.

The evolutionary scenario of hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy: an update.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma is changing worldwide. This study aimed at evaluating the changing scenario of aetiology, presentation, management and prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy during the last 15 years. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of the ITA.LI.CA (Italian Liver Cancer) database including 5192 hepatocellular carcinoma patients managed in 24 centres from 2000 to 2014. Patients were divided into three groups according to the date of cancer diagnosis (2000-2004, 2005-2009 and 2010-2014). RESULTS: The main results were as follows: (i) progressive patient aging; (ii) progressive expansion of non-viral cases and, namely, of "metabolic" hepatocellular carcinomas; (iii) increasing proportion of hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosed during a correct (semi-annual) surveillance programme; (iv) favourable cancer stage migration; (v) increased use of radiofrequency ablation to the detriment of percutaneous ethanol injection; (vi) improved outcomes of ablative and transarterial treatments; (vii) improved overall survival (adjusted for the lead time in surveyed patients), particularly after 2009, of both viral and non-viral patients presenting with an early- or intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma. CONCLUSIONS: During the last 15 years several aetiological and clinical features of hepatocellular carcinoma patients have changed, as their management. The observed improvement of overall survival was owing both to the wider use of semi-annual surveillance, expanding the proportion of tumours that qualified for curative treatments, and to the improved outcome of loco-regional treatments.

Development and Validation of a New Prognostic System for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic assessment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. Using the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database as a training set, we sought to develop and validate a new prognostic system for patients with HCC. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Prospective collected databases from Italy (training cohort, n = 3,628; internal validation cohort, n = 1,555) and Taiwan (external validation cohort, n = 2,651) were used to develop the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system. We first defined ITA.LI.CA stages (0, A, B1, B2, B3, C) using only tumor characteristics (largest tumor diameter, number of nodules, intra- and extrahepatic macroscopic vascular invasion, extrahepatic metastases). A parametric multivariable survival model was then used to calculate the relative prognostic value of ITA.LI.CA tumor stage, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, Child-Pugh score (CPS), and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in predicting individual survival. Based on the model results, an ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score (from 0 to 13 points) was constructed, and its prognostic power compared with that of other integrated systems (BCLC, HKLC, MESIAH, CLIP, JIS). Median follow-up was 58 mo for Italian patients (interquartile range, 26-106 mo) and 39 mo for Taiwanese patients (interquartile range, 12-61 mo). The ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score showed optimal discrimination and calibration abilities in Italian patients. Observed median survival in the training and internal validation sets was 57 and 61 mo, respectively, in quartile 1 (ITA.LI.CA score ≤ 1), 43 and 38 mo in quartile 2 (ITA.LI.CA score 2-3), 23 and 23 mo in quartile 3 (ITA.LI.CA score 4-5), and 9 and 8 mo in quartile 4 (ITA.LI.CA score > 5). Observed and predicted median survival in the training and internal validation sets largely coincided. Although observed and predicted survival estimations were significantly lower (log-rank test, p < 0.001) in Italian than in Taiwanese patients, the ITA.LI.CA score maintained very high discrimination and calibration features also in the external validation cohort. The concordance index (C index) of the ITA.LI.CA score in the internal and external validation cohorts was 0.71 and 0.78, respectively. The ITA.LI.CA score's prognostic ability was significantly better (p < 0.001) than that of BCLC stage (respective C indexes of 0.64 and 0.73), CLIP score (0.68 and 0.75), JIS stage (0.67 and 0.70), MESIAH score (0.69 and 0.77), and HKLC stage (0.68 and 0.75). The main limitations of this study are its retrospective nature and the intrinsically significant differences between the Taiwanese and Italian groups. CONCLUSIONS: The ITA.LI.CA prognostic system includes both a tumor staging-stratifying patients with HCC into six main stages (0, A, B1, B2, B3, and C)-and a prognostic score-integrating ITA.LI.CA tumor staging, CPS, ECOG performance status, and AFP. The ITA.LI.CA prognostic system shows a strong ability to predict individual survival in European and Asian populations.

Application of the Intermediate-Stage Subclassification to Patients With Untreated Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

OBJECTIVES: The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) intermediate stage (BCLC B) includes a heterogeneous population of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Recently, in order to facilitate treatment decisions, a panel of experts proposed to subclassify BCLC B patients. In this study, we aimed to assess the prognostic capability of the BCLC B stage reclassification in a large cohort of patients with untreated HCC managed by the Italian Liver Cancer Group. METHODS: We assessed the prognosis of 269 untreated HCC patients observed in the period 1987-2012 who were reclassified according to the proposed subclassification of the BCLC B stage from stage B1 to stage B4. We evaluated and compared the survival of the various substages. RESULTS: Median survival progressively decreased from stage B1 (n=65, 24.2%: 25 months) through stages B2 (n=105, 39.0%: 16 months) and B3 (n=22, 8.2%: 9 months), to stage B4 (n=77, 28.6%: 5 months; P<0.0001). Moreover, we observed a significantly different survival between contiguous stages (B1 vs. B2, P=0.0002; B2 vs. B3, P<0.0001; B3 vs. B4, P=0.0219). In multivariate analysis, the BCLC B subclassification (P<0.0001), MELD score (P=0.0013), and platelet count (P=0.0252) were independent predictors of survival. CONCLUSIONS: The subclassification of the intermediate-stage HCC predicts the prognosis of patients with untreated HCC. The prognostic figures identified in this study may be used as a benchmark to assess the efficacy of therapeutic intervention in the various BCLC B substages, whereas it remains to be established whether incorporation of the MELD score might improve the prognosis of treated patients.