Factors associated with delayed presentation to healthcare facilities for Lassa fever cases, Nigeria 2019: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Large outbreaks of Lassa fever (LF) occur annually in Nigeria. The case fatality rate among hospitalised cases is ~ 20%. The antiviral drug ribavirin along with supportive care and rehydration are the recommended treatments but must be administered early (within 6 days of symptom onset) for optimal results. We aimed to identify factors associated with late presentation of LF cases to a healthcare facility to inform interventions. METHODS: We undertook a retrospective cohort study of all laboratory confirmed LF cases reported in Nigeria from December 2018 to April 2019. We performed descriptive epidemiology and a univariate Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis to investigate the effect of clinical (symptom severity), epidemiological (age, sex, education, occupation, residential State) and exposure (travel, attendance at funeral, exposure to rodents or confirmed case) factors on time to presentation. RESULTS: Of 389 cases, median presentation time was 6 days (IQR 4-10 days), with 53% attending within 6 days. There were no differences in presentation times by sex but differences were noted by age-group; 60+ year-olds had the longest delays while 13-17 year-olds had the shortest. By sex and age, there were differences seen among the younger ages, with 0-4-year-old females presenting earlier than males (4 days and 73% vs. 10 days and 30%). For 5-12 and 13-17 year-olds, males presented sooner than females (males: 5 days, 65% and 3 days, 85% vs. females: 6 days, 50% and 5 days, 61%, respectively). Presentation times differed across occupations 4.5-9 days and 20-60%, transporters (people who drive informal public transport vehicles) had the longest delays. Other data were limited (41-95% missing). However, the Cox regression showed no factors were statistically associated with longer presentation time. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst we observed important differences in presentation delays across factors, our sample size was insufficient to show any statistically significant differences that might exist. However, almost half of cases presented after 6 days of onset, highlighting the need for more accurate and complete surveillance data to determine if there is a systemic or specific cause for delays, so to inform, monitor and evaluate public health strategies and improve outcomes.

Retrospective cohort study investigating extent of pertussis transmission during a boarding school outbreak, England, December 2017 to June 2018.

On 1 May 2018, a pertussis outbreak was declared and widespread vaccination recommended at an all-female secondary boarding school in southern England. We conducted a retrospective cohort study to determine the extent of pertussis transmission and identify risk factors in this semi-closed population. Of 504 students and staff assessed before post-exposure vaccination, 48% (n = 240) had evidence of pertussis. A sub-analysis of 409 students found that both residential dormitory (p = 0.05) and school year (p = 0.03) were associated with pertussis, with odds decreasing by 11% for each increase in school year (95% confidence interval: 0.7-20.2). Odds of pertussis were 1.7 times higher in those assumed to have received acellular vaccines for their primary course compared with those assumed to have received whole-cell vaccines (based on date of birth), although this difference was not significant (p = 0.12). Our findings support the need for timely, widespread vaccination following identification of cases among adolescents in a semi-closed United Kingdom (UK) setting and to review the evidence for the introduction of an adolescent pertussis booster to the UK routine vaccination programme.

Detection of Chlamydia trachomatis in rectal specimens in women and its association with anal intercourse: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Chlamydia trachomatis is the most commonly diagnosed bacterial STI. Lack of prevalence and risk factor data for rectal chlamydia in women has testing and treatment implications, as azithromycin (a first-line urogenital chlamydia treatment) may be less effective for rectal chlamydia. We conducted a systematic review of studies on women in high-income countries to estimate rectal chlamydia prevalence, concurrency with urogenital chlamydia and associations with reported anal intercourse (AI). DESIGN: Systematic review and four meta-analyses conducted using random-effects modelling. DATA SOURCES: Medline, Embase, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, PsycINFO and the Cochrane Database were searched for articles published between January 1997 and October 2017. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies reporting rectal chlamydia positivity in heterosexual women aged ≥15 years old in high-income countries were included. Studies must have used nucleic acid amplification tests and reported both the total number of women tested for rectal chlamydia and the number of rectal chlamydia infections detected. Conference abstracts, case reports and studies with self-reported diagnoses were excluded. Data extracted included setting, rectal and urogenital chlamydia testing results, AI history, and demographics. RESULTS: Fourteen eligible studies were identified, all among diverse populations attending sexual health services. Among routine clinic-attending women, summary rectal chlamydia positivity was 6.0% (95% CI 3.2% to 8.9%); summary concurrent rectal chlamydia infection was 68.1% in those who tested positive for urogenital chlamydia (95% CI 56.6% to 79.6%); and of those who tested negative for urogenital chlamydia, 2.2% (95% CI 0% to 5.2%) were positive for rectal chlamydia. Reported AI was not associated with rectal chlamydia (summary risk ratio 0.90; 95% CI 0.75 to 1.10). CONCLUSIONS: High levels of rectal chlamydia infection have been shown in women with urogenital chlamydia infection. The absence of association between reported AI and rectal chlamydia suggests AI is not an adequate indicator for rectal testing. Further work is needed to determine policy and practice for routine rectal testing in women.

Filling in the gaps: estimating numbers of chlamydia tests and diagnoses by age group and sex before and during the implementation of the English National Screening Programme, 2000 to 2012.

To inform mathematical modelling of the impact of chlamydia screening in England since 2000, a complete picture of chlamydia testing is needed. Monitoring and surveillance systems evolved between 2000 and 2012. Since 2012, data on publicly funded chlamydia tests and diagnoses have been collected nationally. However, gaps exist for earlier years. We collated available data on chlamydia testing and diagnosis rates among 15-44-year-olds by sex and age group for 2000-2012. Where data were unavailable, we applied data- and evidence-based assumptions to construct plausible minimum and maximum estimates and set bounds on uncertainty. There was a large range between estimates in years when datasets were less comprehensive (2000-2008); smaller ranges were seen hereafter. In 15-19-year-old women in 2000, the estimated diagnosis rate ranged between 891 and 2,489 diagnoses per 100,000 persons. Testing and diagnosis rates increased between 2000 and 2012 in women and men across all age groups using minimum or maximum estimates, with greatest increases seen among 15-24-year-olds. Our dataset can be used to parameterise and validate mathematical models and serve as a reference dataset to which trends in chlamydia-related complications can be compared. Our analysis highlights the complexities of combining monitoring and surveillance datasets.

Application of a new multi-locus variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) scheme for the seasonal investigation of Cryptosporidium parvum cases in Wales and the northwest of England, spring 2022.

The protozoan Cryptosporidium parvum is an important cause of gastroenteritis in humans and livestock, and cryptosporidiosis outbreaks are common. However, a multi-locus genotyping scheme is not widely adopted. We describe the further development and application of a seven-locus multi-locus variable number of tandem repeats analysis (MLVA) scheme. From 28th March to 31st July 2022, confirmed C. parvum stools (n = 213) from cryptosporidiosis patients (cases) in Wales (n = 95) and the north west of England (n = 118) were tested by MLVA. Typability (defined as alleles identified at all seven loci in a sample) was 81.2% and discriminatory power estimated by Hunter Gaston Discriminatory Index was 0.99. A MLVA profile was constructed from the alleles, expressed in chromosomal order. Profiles were defined as simple (single allele at each locus) or mixed (more than one allele at any locus). A total of 161 MLVA profiles were identified; 13 were mixed, an additional 38 simple profiles contained null records, and 110 were complete simple profiles. A minimum spanning tree was constructed of simple MLVA profiles and those identical at all seven loci defined genetic clusters of cases (here, null records were considered as an allele); 77 cases formed 25 clusters, ranging from two to nine (mode = two) cases. The largest cluster, following epidemiological investigation, signalled a newly-identified outbreak. Two other cases with mixed profiles that contained the outbreak alleles were included in the outbreak investigation. In another epidemiologically-identified outbreak of six initial cases, MLVA detected two additional cases. In a third, small outbreak of three cases, identical MLVA profiles strengthened the microbiological evidence. Review of the performance characteristics of the individual loci and of the seven-locus scheme suggested that two loci might be candidates for review, but a larger dataset over a wider geographical area and longer timeframe will help inform decision-making about the scheme by user laboratories and stakeholders (such as public health agencies). This MLVA scheme is straightforward in use, fast and cheap compared to sequence-based methods, identifies mixed infections, provides an important tool for C. parvum surveillance, and can enhance outbreak investigations and public health action.

Accuracy of four lateral flow immunoassays for anti SARS-CoV-2 antibodies: a head-to-head comparative study.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 antibody tests are used for population surveillance and might have a future role in individual risk assessment. Lateral flow immunoassays (LFIAs) can deliver results rapidly and at scale, but have widely varying accuracy. METHODS: In a laboratory setting, we performed head-to-head comparisons of four LFIAs: the Rapid Test Consortium's AbC-19TM Rapid Test, OrientGene COVID IgG/IgM Rapid Test Cassette, SureScreen COVID-19 Rapid Test Cassette, and Biomerica COVID-19 IgG/IgM Rapid Test. We analysed blood samples from 2,847 key workers and 1,995 pre-pandemic blood donors with all four devices. FINDINGS: We observed a clear trade-off between sensitivity and specificity: the IgG band of the SureScreen device and the AbC-19TM device had higher specificities but OrientGene and Biomerica higher sensitivities. Based on analysis of pre-pandemic samples, SureScreen IgG band had the highest specificity (98.9%, 95% confidence interval 98.3 to 99.3%), which translated to the highest positive predictive value across any pre-test probability: for example, 95.1% (95% uncertainty interval 92.6, 96.8%) at 20% pre-test probability. All four devices showed higher sensitivity at higher antibody concentrations ("spectrum effects"), but the extent of this varied by device. INTERPRETATION: The estimates of sensitivity and specificity can be used to adjust for test error rates when using these devices to estimate the prevalence of antibody. If tests were used to determine whether an individual has SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, in an example scenario in which 20% of individuals have antibodies we estimate around 5% of positive results on the most specific device would be false positives. FUNDING: Public Health England.

The One Health approach to incident management of the 2019 Lassa fever outbreak response in Nigeria.

Globally, effective emergency response to disease outbreaks is usually affected by weak coordination. However, coordination using an incident management system (IMS) in line with a One Health approach involving human, environment, and animal health with collaborations between government and non-governmental agencies result in improved response outcome for zoonotic diseases such as Lassa fever (LF). We provide an overview of the 2019 LF outbreak response in Nigeria using the IMS and One Health approach. The response was coordinated via ten Emergency Operation Centre (EOC) response pillars. Cardinal response activities included activation of EOC, development of an incident action plan, deployment of One Health rapid response teams to support affected states, mid-outbreak review and after-action review meetings. Between 1st January and 29th December 2019, of the 5057 people tested for LF, 833 were confirmed positive from 23 States, across 86 Local Government Areas. Of the 833 confirmed cases, 650 (78%) were from hotspot States of Edo (36%), Ondo (26%) and Ebonyi (16%). Those in the age-group 21-40 years (47%) were mostly affected, with a male to female ratio of 1:1. Twenty healthcare workers were affected. Two LF naïve states Kebbi and Zamfara, reported confirmed cases for the first time during this period. The outbreak peaked earlier in the year compared to previous years, and the emergency phase of the outbreak was declared over by epidemiological week 17 based on low national threshold composite indicators over a period of six consecutive weeks. Multisectoral and multidisciplinary strategic One Health EOC coordination at all levels facilitated the swift containment of Nigeria's large LF outbreak in 2019. It is therefore imperative to embrace One Health approach embedded within the EOC to holistically address the increasing LF incidence in Nigeria.

Genomic approaches used to investigate an atypical outbreak of Salmonella Adjame.

In 2017, an outbreak of gastroenteritis in England attributed to Salmonella Adjame was detected and investigated. With the introduction of whole genome sequencing (WGS) for microbial typing, methods for comparing international outbreak data require evaluation. A case was defined as a person resident in England with a clinical sample from 1 June 2017 to 27 July 2017 from whom S. Adjame was isolated. Cases were interviewed and exposures analysed. Backward tracing of food provenance was undertaken. WGS was performed on isolates from cases and historical isolates and compared using Public Health England's SnapperDB high-quality SNP pipeline and Enterobase's Salmonella core genome multi-locus sequence typing (cgMLST) scheme. In total, 14 cases were identified. The majority were vegetarian, probably of South Asian descent, with a median age of 66.5 years with no recent international travel reported. Cases consumed a range of fresh food products including herbs and spices bought from South Asian grocers. Backward tracing did not identify a common source. WGS typing showed sub-clustering and considerable genetic variation across human samples. cgMLST allele-based analysis was comparable to SNP-derived phylogenetic analysis and clusters were defined using each method. Imported herbs or spices were suspected vehicles. The cases were linked in time and place but WGS showed marked heterogeneity, atypical of a point source Salmonella outbreak. The application of incorporating SNP or allelic differences into the case definition may not always be appropriate. With further validation, cgMLST could be used for international outbreak alerts when WGS analysis is being undertaken to facilitate comparison.

A large-scale stochastic spatiotemporal model for Aedes albopictus-borne chikungunya epidemiology.

Chikungunya is a viral disease transmitted to humans primarily via the bites of infected Aedes mosquitoes. The virus caused a major epidemic in the Indian Ocean in 2004, affecting millions of inhabitants, while cases have also been observed in Europe since 2007. We developed a stochastic spatiotemporal model of Aedes albopictus-borne chikungunya transmission based on our recently developed environmentally-driven vector population dynamics model. We designed an integrated modelling framework incorporating large-scale gridded climate datasets to investigate disease outbreaks on Reunion Island and in Italy. We performed Bayesian parameter inference on the surveillance data, and investigated the validity and applicability of the underlying biological assumptions. The model successfully represents the outbreak and measures of containment in Italy, suggesting wider applicability in Europe. In its current configuration, the model implies two different viral strains, thus two different outbreaks, for the two-stage Reunion Island epidemic. Characterisation of the posterior distributions indicates a possible relationship between the second larger outbreak on Reunion Island and the Italian outbreak. The model suggests that vector control measures, with different modes of operation, are most effective when applied in combination: adult vector intervention has a high impact but is short-lived, larval intervention has a low impact but is long-lasting, and quarantining infected territories, if applied strictly, is effective in preventing large epidemics. We present a novel approach in analysing chikungunya outbreaks globally using a single environmentally-driven mathematical model. Our study represents a significant step towards developing a globally applicable Ae. albopictus-borne chikungunya transmission model, and introduces a guideline for extending such models to other vector-borne diseases.

The role of environmental variables on Aedes albopictus biology and chikungunya epidemiology.

Aedes albopictus is a vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses in the field, along with around 24 additional arboviruses under laboratory conditions. As an invasive mosquito species, Ae. albopictus has been expanding in geographical range over the past 20 years, although the poleward extent of mosquito populations is limited by winter temperatures. Nonetheless, population densities depend on environmental conditions and since global climate change projections indicate increasing temperatures and altered patterns of rainfall, geographic distributions of previously tropical mosquito species may change. Although mathematical models can provide explanatory insight into observed patterns of disease prevalence in terms of epidemiological and entomological processes, understanding how environmental variables affect transmission is possible only with reliable model parameterisation, which, in turn, is obtained only through a thorough understanding of the relationship between mosquito biology and environmental variables. Thus, in order to assess the impact of climate change on mosquito population distribution and regions threatened by vector-borne disease, a detailed understanding (through a synthesis of current knowledge) of the relationship between climate, mosquito biology, and disease transmission is required, but this process has not yet been undertaken for Ae. albopictus. In this review, the impact of temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity on Ae. albopictus development and survival are considered. Existing Ae. albopictus populations across Europe are mapped with current climatic conditions, considering whether estimates of climatic cutoffs for Ae. albopictus are accurate, and suggesting that environmental thresholds must be calibrated according to the scale and resolution of climate model outputs and mosquito presence data.