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1.
Inj Prev ; 30(4): 320-327, 2024 Jul 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38182408

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Children in households experiencing poverty are disproportionately exposed to maltreatment. Income support policies have been associated with reductions in child abuse and neglect. The advance child tax credit (CTC) payments may reduce child maltreatment by improving the economic security of some families. No national studies have examined the association between advance CTC payments and child abuse and neglect. This study examines the association between the advance CTC payments and child abuse and neglect-related contacts to the Childhelp National Child Abuse Hotline. METHODS: A time series study of contacts to the Childhelp National Child Abuse Hotline between January 2019 and December 2022 was used to examine the association between the payments and hotline contacts. An interrupted time series (ITS) exploiting the variation in the advance CTC payments was estimated using fixed effects. RESULTS: The CTC advance payments were associated with an immediate 13.8% (95% CI -17.5% to -10.0%) decrease in contacts to the hotline in the ITS model. Following the expiration of the advance CTC payments, there was a significant and gradual 0.1% (95% CI +0.0% to +0.2%) daily increase in contacts. Sensitivity analyses found significant reductions in contacts following each payment, however, the reductions were associated with the last three of the six total payments. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest the advance CTC payments may reduce child abuse and neglect-related hotline contacts and continue to build the evidence base for associations between income-support policies and reductions in child abuse and neglect.


Subject(s)
Child Abuse , Humans , Child Abuse/prevention & control , Child Abuse/economics , Child , United States , Child, Preschool , Male , Female , Hotlines/economics , Hotlines/statistics & numerical data , Poverty , Interrupted Time Series Analysis , Infant , Income Tax
2.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 72(13): 333-337, 2023 Mar 31.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36995967

ABSTRACT

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. firearm homicide rate increased by nearly 35%, and the firearm suicide rate remained high during 2019-2020 (1). Provisional mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System indicate that rates continued to increase in 2021: the rates of firearm homicide and firearm suicide in 2021 were the highest recorded since 1993 and 1990, respectively (2). Firearm injuries treated in emergency departments (EDs), the primary setting for the immediate medical treatment of such injuries, gradually increased during 2018-2019 (3); however, more recent patterns of ED visits for firearm injuries, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, are unknown. Using data from the National Syndromic Surveillance Program (NSSP),* CDC examined changes in ED visits for initial firearm injury encounters during January 2019-December 2022, by year, patient sex, and age group. Increases in the overall weekly number of firearm injury ED visits were detected at certain periods during the COVID-19 pandemic. One such period during which there was a gradual increase was March 2020, which coincided with both the declaration of COVID-19 as a national emergency† and a pronounced decrease in the total number of ED visits. Another increase in firearm injury ED visits occurred in late May 2020, concurrent with a period marked by public outcry related to social injustice and structural racism (4), changes in state-level COVID-19-specific prevention strategies,§ decreased engagement in COVID-19 mitigation behaviors (5), and reported increases in some types of crime (4). Compared with 2019, the average number of weekly ED visits for firearm injury was 37% higher in 2020, 36% higher in 2021, and 20% higher in 2022. A comprehensive approach is needed to prevent and respond to firearm injuries in communities, including strategies that engage community and street outreach programs, implement hospital-based violence prevention programs, improve community physical environments, enhance secure storage of firearms, and strengthen social and economic supports.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Firearms , Wounds, Gunshot , Humans , United States/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , Pandemics , Wounds, Gunshot/epidemiology , Wounds, Gunshot/therapy , Emergency Service, Hospital
3.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 71(27): 873-877, 2022 Jul 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35797204

ABSTRACT

At least 100,000 persons in the United States experience a fatal or nonfatal firearm injury each year.* CDC examined rates of firearm injury emergency department (ED) visits by community social vulnerability using data from CDC's Firearm Injury Surveillance Through Emergency Rooms (FASTER) program.† ED visit data, shared with CDC's National Syndromic Surveillance Program (NSSP)§ during 2018-2021, were analyzed for 647 counties in 10 FASTER-funded jurisdictions.¶ County-level social vulnerability data were obtained from the 2018 Social Vulnerability Index (SVI).** Rates of ED visits for firearm injuries (number of firearm injury ED visits per 100,000 ED visits) were calculated across tertile levels of social vulnerability. Negative binomial regression models were used to estimate rate ratios (RRs) and associated 95% CIs comparing rates of ED visits across social vulnerability levels. During 2018-2021, compared with rates in counties with low overall social vulnerability, the firearm injury ED visit rate was 1.34 times as high in counties with medium social vulnerability and 1.80 times as high in counties with high social vulnerability. Similar patterns were observed for the SVI themes of socioeconomic status and housing type and transportation, but not for the themes of household composition and disability status or racial and ethnic minority status and language proficiency. More timely data†† on firearm injury ED visits by social vulnerability can help identify communities disproportionately experiencing elevated firearm injury rates. States and communities can use the best available evidence to implement comprehensive prevention strategies that address inequities in the social and structural conditions that contribute to risk for violence, including creating protective community environments, strengthening economic supports, and intervening to reduce harms and prevent future risk (e.g., with hospital-based violence intervention programs) (1,2).


Subject(s)
Firearms , Wounds, Gunshot , Emergency Service, Hospital , Ethnicity , Humans , Minority Groups , Social Vulnerability , United States/epidemiology , Wounds, Gunshot/epidemiology
4.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 71(19): 656-663, 2022 May 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35550497

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The majority of homicides (79%) and suicides (53%) in the United States involved a firearm in 2020. High firearm homicide and suicide rates and corresponding inequities by race and ethnicity and poverty level represent important public health concerns. This study examined changes in firearm homicide and firearm suicide rates coinciding with the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. METHODS: National vital statistics and population data were integrated with urbanization and poverty measures at the county level. Population-based firearm homicide and suicide rates were examined by age, sex, race and ethnicity, geographic area, level of urbanization, and level of poverty. RESULTS: From 2019 to 2020, the overall firearm homicide rate increased 34.6%, from 4.6 to 6.1 per 100,000 persons. The largest increases occurred among non-Hispanic Black or African American males aged 10-44 years and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) males aged 25-44 years. Rates of firearm homicide were lowest and increased least at the lowest poverty level and were higher and showed larger increases at higher poverty levels. The overall firearm suicide rate remained relatively unchanged from 2019 to 2020 (7.9 to 8.1); however, in some populations, including AI/AN males aged 10-44 years, rates did increase. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the firearm homicide rate in the United States reached its highest level since 1994, with substantial increases among several population subgroups. These increases have widened disparities in rates by race and ethnicity and poverty level. Several increases in firearm suicide rates were also observed. Implementation of comprehensive strategies employing proven approaches that address underlying economic, physical, and social conditions contributing to the risks for violence and suicide is urgently needed to reduce these rates and disparities.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Firearms , Suicide , Cause of Death , Homicide , Humans , Male , Pandemics , Population Surveillance , United States/epidemiology , Vital Signs
5.
J Res Adolesc ; 30(4): 1025-1038, 2020 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32918776

ABSTRACT

We aimed to characterize developmental patterns of involvement in alcohol use, delinquency, and interpersonal aggression in a normative sample of adolescents by applying multitrajectory group-based modeling. Using seven waves of data from a cohort sequential study spanning the 6th to 12th grades (n = 2,825; 50% girls), we identified four distinct trajectory groups: low risk (33%), declining peer aggressors (44%), peer and dating aggressors (13%), and multidomain high risk (10%). Across all comparisons, girls were more likely than boys to be members of the peer and dating aggressor group and less likely to be members of the multidomain high-risk group. Moreover, individual (self-control, negative emotionality), family (family violence, parental monitoring), and peer (substance use norms) distinguished class membership.


Subject(s)
Domestic Violence , Substance-Related Disorders , Adolescent , Aggression , Alcohol Drinking/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Male , Peer Group
6.
AIDS Care ; 31(6): 707-713, 2019 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30522335

ABSTRACT

HIV-positive women who engage in postpartum unsafe sex are at risk for sexually transmitted infection (STI), unintended pregnancy, and secondary transmission of HIV to uninfected partners. One factor that may increase risk for postpartum unsafe sex among HIV-positive women is intimate partner violence (IPV) victimization; few studies, however, have examined this association. This longitudinal study examined whether patterns of psychological, physical, and sexual IPV, assessed during pregnancy, predicted unsafe sex at 14 weeks postpartum among South African women diagnosed as HIV-positive during pregnancy (n = 561). In a latent class analysis, we identified three distinct patterns of IPV victimization: non-victims (74%), moderate IPV (20%), and multiform severe controlling IPV (5%). Compared to non-victims, victims of multiform severe controlling IPV were significantly more likely to engage in postpartum unsafe sex (p = .01), even after adjusting for potential confounding factors. Moderate IPV was not associated with postpartum unsafe sex. Findings support the need for targeted sexual risk reduction interventions for HIV-positive pregnant women who have experienced severe patterns of IPV.


Subject(s)
HIV Infections/diagnosis , Intimate Partner Violence/psychology , Postpartum Period , Sexual Partners/psychology , Unsafe Sex/statistics & numerical data , Adolescent , Adult , Black People , Crime Victims/psychology , Female , HIV Infections/psychology , Humans , Intimate Partner Violence/statistics & numerical data , Latent Class Analysis , Longitudinal Studies , Pregnancy , Sexual Behavior/psychology , Unsafe Sex/psychology , Young Adult
8.
Prev Sci ; 19(8): 997-1007, 2018 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29629508

ABSTRACT

Social ecological and developmental system perspectives suggest that interactions among factors within and across multiple contexts (e.g., neighborhood, peer, family) must be considered in explaining dating violence perpetration. Yet, to date, most extant research on dating violence has focused on individual, rather than contextual predictors, and used variable-centered approaches that fail to capture the configurations of factors that may jointly explain involvement in dating violence. The current study used a person-centered approach, latent profile analysis, to identify key configurations (or profiles) of contextual risk and protective factors for dating violence perpetration across the neighborhood, school, friend and family contexts. We then examine the longitudinal associations between these contextual risk profiles, assessed during middle school, and trajectories of psychological and physical dating violence perpetration across grades 8 through 12. Five contextual risk profiles were identified: school, neighborhood, and family risk; school and family risk; school and friend risk; school and neighborhood risk; and low risk. The highest levels of psychological and physical perpetration across grades 8 through 12 were among adolescents in the profile characterized by high levels of school, neighborhood, and family risk. Results suggest that early interventions to reduce violence exposure and increase social regulation across multiple social contexts may be effective in reducing dating violence perpetration across adolescence.


Subject(s)
Intimate Partner Violence , Adolescent , Female , Humans , Male , Models, Psychological , Risk Factors , Social Environment
9.
J Youth Adolesc ; 47(11): 2371-2383, 2018 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30043190

ABSTRACT

Typological theoretical perspectives suggest that the consequences of involvement in peer and dating violence may depend on the particular pattern of violent behaviors that youth experience and/or engage in. Yet few studies have examined whether distinct patterns of dating and peer violence involvement differentially predict developmental outcomes. Using two waves of data, the current study examined the prospective associations between distinct patterns of peer and dating aggression and victimization, identified using latent class analysis, and a range of potential developmental outcomes in a general population sample of adolescents in the 8th to 10th grades (n = 3068; 46% female, 58% White, 31% Black, 11% other race/ethnicity). The findings suggest that, compared to youth involved in other patterns of violence, youth involved in peer and dating violence as aggressors and victims are at greatest risk for negative sequelae, although results differed considerably for girls and boys and on the outcome variable and comparison groups being examined.


Subject(s)
Adolescent Behavior , Intimate Partner Violence , Peer Group , Adolescent , Aggression , Bullying/statistics & numerical data , Crime Victims/statistics & numerical data , Female , Humans , Interpersonal Relations , Male , North Carolina , Prospective Studies
11.
J Youth Adolesc ; 46(8): 1727-1742, 2017 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28005228

ABSTRACT

Theory and research suggest that there may be significant heterogeneity in the development, manifestation, and consequences of adolescent dating violence that is not yet well understood. The current study contributed to our understanding of this heterogeneity by identifying distinct patterns of involvement in psychological, physical, and sexual dating violence victimization and perpetration in a sample of Latino youth (n = 201; M = 13.87 years; 42% male), a group that is understudied, growing, and at high risk for involvement in dating violence. Among both boys and girls, latent class analyses identified a three-class solution wherein the largest class demonstrated a low probability of involvement in dating violence across all indices ("uninvolved"; 56% of boys, 64% of girls) and the smallest class demonstrated high probability of involvement in all forms of dating violence except for sexual perpetration among girls and physical perpetration among boys ("multiform aggressive victims"; 10% of boys, 11% of girls). A third class of "psychologically aggressive victims" was identified for which there was a high probability of engaging and experiencing psychological dating violence, but low likelihood of involvement in physical or sexual dating violence (34% of boys, 24% of girls). Cultural (parent acculturation, acculturation conflict), family (conflict and cohesion) and individual (normative beliefs, conflict resolution skills, self-control) risk and protective factors were associated with class membership. Membership in the multiform vs. the uninvolved class was concurrently associated with emotional distress among girls and predicted emotional distress longitudinally among boys. The results contribute to understanding heterogeneity in patterns of involvement in dating violence among Latino youth that may reflect distinct etiological processes.


Subject(s)
Adolescent Behavior/psychology , Crime Victims/statistics & numerical data , Intimate Partner Violence/statistics & numerical data , Sex Offenses/statistics & numerical data , Adolescent , Adolescent Behavior/ethnology , Child , Crime Victims/psychology , Female , Hispanic or Latino , Humans , Interpersonal Relations , Intimate Partner Violence/ethnology , Intimate Partner Violence/psychology , Male , Sex Offenses/psychology , Sexual Behavior , Surveys and Questionnaires
12.
Prev Sci ; 17(3): 357-66, 2016 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26494314

ABSTRACT

Moms and Teens for Safe Dates (MTSD) is a dating abuse (DA) prevention program for teens exposed to domestic violence. In a randomized controlled trial (RCT), MTSD prevented certain types of DA victimization (psychological and physical) and perpetration (psychological and cyber) among teens with higher, but not lower, exposure to domestic violence. We built on these findings by using moderated mediation analysis to examine whether level of teen exposure to domestic violence conditioned the indirect effects of MTSD on these types of DA through targeted mediators. MTSD consisted of six mailed activity booklets. Mothers who had been former victims of domestic violence delivered the program to their teens. Mother and teen pairs were recruited into the RCT through community advertising and completed baseline and 6-month follow-up interviews (N = 277 pairs). As expected, MTSD had significant favorable effects for teens with higher but not lower exposure to domestic violence on several mediators that guided program content, including teen conflict management skills and mother-perceived severity of DA, self-efficacy for enacting DA prevention efforts, and comfort in communicating with her teen. MTSD had significant main effects on other mediators including teen feeling of family closeness and cohesion and mother-perceived susceptibility of her teen to DA. As expected, all significant indirect effects of MTSD on DA outcomes through mediators were for teens with higher exposure to domestic violence. Findings have implications for developing DA victimization and perpetration prevention programs for teens with high exposure to domestic violence.


Subject(s)
Domestic Violence/prevention & control , Interpersonal Relations , Adolescent , Adult , Female , Humans , Male
13.
J Youth Adolesc ; 45(4): 672-86, 2016 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26746242

ABSTRACT

The high risk of perpetrating physical dating violence, bullying, and sexual harassment by adolescents exposed to domestic violence points to the need for programs to prevent these types of aggression among this group. This study of adolescents exposed to domestic violence examined whether these forms of aggression share risk factors that could be targeted for change in single programs designed to prevent all three types of aggression. Analyses were conducted on 399 mother victims of domestic violence and their adolescents, recruited through community advertising. The adolescents ranged in age from 12 to 16 years; 64 % were female. Generalized estimating equations was used to control for the covariation among the aggression types when testing for shared risk factors. Approximately 70 % of the adolescents reported perpetrating at least one of the three forms of aggression. In models examining one risk factor at a time, but controlling for demographics, adolescent acceptance of sexual violence, mother-adolescent discord, family conflict, low maternal monitoring, low mother-adolescent closeness, low family cohesion, depressed affect, feelings of anger, and anger reactivity were shared across all three aggression types. In multivariable models, which included all of the risk factors examined and the demographic variables, low maternal monitoring, depressed affect and anger reactivity remained significant shared risk factors. Our findings suggest that programs targeting these risk factors for change have the potential to prevent all three forms of aggression. In multivariable models, poor conflict management skills was a risk for bullying and sexual harassment, but not dating violence; acceptance of dating violence was a risk for dating violence and bullying, but not sexual harassment; and none of the examined risk factors were unique to aggression type. The study's implications for the development of interventions and future research are discussed.


Subject(s)
Bullying/statistics & numerical data , Domestic Violence/psychology , Interpersonal Relations , Intimate Partner Violence/statistics & numerical data , Sexual Harassment/statistics & numerical data , Adolescent , Adolescent Behavior/psychology , Aggression/psychology , Female , Humans , Male , Mother-Child Relations/psychology , Risk Factors , Sex Offenses
14.
J Youth Adolesc ; 44(3): 696-707, 2015 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25189287

ABSTRACT

Theoretical and empirical evidence suggests that stressful life events are associated with the perpetration of intimate partner violence among adults, but little attention has been given to the relationship between stressful life events and adolescent dating abuse, a prevalent form of violence that results in serious and long-lasting consequences. The current study addresses this gap by examining associations between family-, peer-, school-, and health-related stressful life events and the perpetration of both psychological and physical forms of dating abuse in a sample of 1,125 adolescents (54.6% female, 18% Black), and determining whether these associations are moderated by attributes of the family (closeness to parent) and the adolescent (sex and self-esteem). The total number of stressful events and school-related events were positively associated with the perpetration of psychological dating abuse and family-related events were related to the perpetration of psychological dating abuse for boys, but not girls. Closeness to parent buffered the effect of stressful health-related events on the perpetration of physical dating abuse, but exacerbated the effect of stressful family-related events on the perpetration of physical dating abuse. Health-related events were associated with physical perpetration for those with high, but not low self-esteem. Finally, the total number of stressful events and family-related events were related to the perpetration of physical dating abuse by boys, but not by girls. Taken together, these findings suggest that stressful life events play an important role in adolescent dating abuse, and should be taken into consideration when developing adolescent dating abuse prevention programs.


Subject(s)
Adolescent Behavior/psychology , Courtship/psychology , Interpersonal Relations , Life Change Events , Violence/psychology , Adolescent , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Male
15.
J Trauma Stress ; 27(2): 244-8, 2014 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24639101

ABSTRACT

Suicide is a prevalent problem among veterans deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan. Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and psychiatric conditions, such as posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), are potentially important risk factors for suicide in this population, but the literature is limited by a dearth of research on female veterans and imprecise assessment of TBI and suicidal behavior. This study examined 824 male and 825 female U.S. veterans who were enrolled in the baseline assessment of the Veterans After-Discharge Longitudinal Registry (Project VALOR), an observational registry of veterans with and without PTSD who deployed in support of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and were enrolled in the Veterans Affairs healthcare system. Results indicated that current depressive symptoms, PTSD, and history of prior TBI were all significantly associated with current suicidal ideation (Cohen's d = 0.91, Cramers' Vs = .19 and .08, respectively). After adding a number of variables to the model, including psychiatric comorbidity, TBI history was associated with increased risk of current suicidal ideation among male veterans only (RR = 1.55). TBI is an important variable to consider in future research on suicide among veterans of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, particularly among male veterans.


Subject(s)
Brain Injuries/psychology , Depressive Disorder/psychology , Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic/psychology , Suicidal Ideation , Veterans/psychology , Adult , Afghan Campaign 2001- , Brain Injuries/epidemiology , Comorbidity , Depressive Disorder/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Iraq War, 2003-2011 , Longitudinal Studies , Male , Multivariate Analysis , Sex Distribution , Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic/epidemiology , United States
16.
Am J Prev Med ; 66(6): 963-970, 2024 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38309671

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Recent research has indicated an association between both poverty and income inequality and firearm homicides. Increased minimum wages may serve as a strategy for reducing firearm violence by increasing economic security among workers earning low wages and reducing the number of families living in poverty. This study aimed to examine the association between state minimum wage and firearm homicides in the U.S. between 2000 and 2020. METHODS: State minimum wage, obtained from Temple's Law Atlas and augmented by legal research, was conceptualized using the Kaitz Index. State-level homicide counts were obtained from 2000 to 2020 multiple-cause-of death mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System. Log-linear regressions were conducted to model the associations between state minimum wage and firearm homicides, stratifying by demographic groups. Analyses were conducted in 2023. RESULTS: A 1% point increase in a state's Kaitz Index was associated with a 1.3% (95% CI: -2.1% to -0.5%) decrease in a state's firearm homicide rate. When interacted with quartile of firearm ownership, the Kaitz Index was associated with decreases in firearm homicide in all except the lowest quartile. These findings were largely consistent across stratifications. CONCLUSIONS: Changing a state's minimum wage, whereby a full-time minimum wage worker's salary is closer to a state's median income, may be an option for reducing firearm homicides.


Subject(s)
Firearms , Homicide , Salaries and Fringe Benefits , Humans , Homicide/statistics & numerical data , Homicide/trends , Firearms/statistics & numerical data , Firearms/legislation & jurisprudence , Firearms/economics , United States/epidemiology , Salaries and Fringe Benefits/statistics & numerical data , Salaries and Fringe Benefits/trends , Male , Female , Adult , Middle Aged , Poverty/statistics & numerical data , Young Adult , Adolescent , Income/statistics & numerical data
17.
Child Abuse Negl ; 153: 106844, 2024 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38761717

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Empirical studies have demonstrated associations between ten original adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and multiple health outcomes. Identifying expanded ACEs can capture the burden of other childhood adversities that may have important health implications. OBJECTIVE: We sought to identify childhood adversities that warrant consideration as expanded ACEs. We hypothesized that experiencing expanded and original ACEs would be associated with poorer adult health outcomes compared to experiencing original ACEs alone. PARTICIPANTS: The 11,545 respondents of the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLS) and Child and Young Adult Survey were 48.9 % female, 22.7 % Black, 15.8 % Hispanic, 36.1 % White, 1.7 % Asian/Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander/Native American/Native Alaskan, and 7.5 % Other. METHODS: This study used regression trees and generalized linear models to identify if/which expanded ACEs interacted with original ACEs in association with six health outcomes. RESULTS: Four expanded ACEs-basic needs instability, lack of parental love and affection, community stressors, and mother's experience with physical abuse during childhood -significantly interacted with general health, depressive symptom severity, anxiety symptom severity, and violent crime victimization in adulthood (all p-values <0.005). Basic needs instability and/or lack of parental love and affection emerged as correlates across multiple outcomes. Experiencing lack of parental love and affection and original ACEs was associated with greater anxiety symptoms (p = 0.022). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to use supervised machine learning to investigate interaction effects among original ACEs and expanded ACEs. Two expanded ACEs emerged as predictors for three adult health outcomes and warrant further consideration in ACEs assessments.


Subject(s)
Adverse Childhood Experiences , Humans , Female , Male , Adverse Childhood Experiences/statistics & numerical data , Adult , Longitudinal Studies , Child , Young Adult , Adolescent , Health Status , Regression Analysis , Depression/epidemiology , Crime Victims/statistics & numerical data , Crime Victims/psychology , Anxiety/epidemiology , United States/epidemiology , Adult Survivors of Child Abuse/psychology , Adult Survivors of Child Abuse/statistics & numerical data
18.
JAMA Netw Open ; 6(3): e233413, 2023 03 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36930150

ABSTRACT

Importance: Firearm homicides are a major public health concern; lack of timely mortality data presents considerable challenges to effective response. Near real-time data sources offer potential for more timely estimation of firearm homicides. Objective: To estimate near real-time burden of weekly and annual firearm homicides in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this prognostic study, anonymous, longitudinal time series data were obtained from multiple data sources, including Google and YouTube search trends related to firearms (2014-2019), emergency department visits for firearm injuries (National Syndromic Surveillance Program, 2014-2019), emergency medical service activations for firearm-related injuries (biospatial, 2014-2019), and National Domestic Violence Hotline contacts flagged with the keyword firearm (2016-2019). Data analysis was performed from September 2021 to September 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Weekly estimates of US firearm homicides were calculated using a 2-phase pipeline, first fitting optimal machine learning models for each data stream and then combining the best individual models into a stacked ensemble model. Model accuracy was assessed by comparing predictions of firearm homicides in 2019 to actual firearm homicides identified by National Vital Statistics System death certificates. Results were also compared with a SARIMA (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average) model, a common method to forecast injury mortality. Results: Both individual and ensemble models yielded highly accurate estimates of firearm homicides. Individual models' mean error for weekly estimates of firearm homicides (root mean square error) varied from 24.95 for emergency department visits to 31.29 for SARIMA forecasting. Ensemble models combining data sources had lower weekly mean error and higher annual accuracy than individual data sources: the all-source ensemble model had a weekly root mean square error of 24.46 deaths and full-year accuracy of 99.74%, predicting the total number of firearm homicides in 2019 within 38 deaths for the entire year (compared with 95.48% accuracy and 652 deaths for the SARIMA model). The model decreased the time lag of reporting weekly firearm homicides from 7 to 8 months to approximately 6 weeks. Conclusions and Relevance: In this prognostic study of diverse secondary data on machine learning, ensemble modeling produced accurate near real-time estimates of weekly and annual firearm homicides and substantially decreased data source time lags. Ensemble model forecasts can accelerate public health practitioners' and policy makers' ability to respond to unanticipated shifts in firearm homicides.


Subject(s)
Homicide , Models, Statistical , Wounds, Gunshot , Humans , Firearms , Homicide/statistics & numerical data , Machine Learning , United States/epidemiology , Wounds, Gunshot/mortality , Reproducibility of Results , Forecasting/methods
19.
J Interpers Violence ; 36(3-4): 1141-1167, 2021 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29294978

ABSTRACT

Recent studies of intimate partner violence (IPV) in high-resource countries suggest that men and women may perpetrate similar rates of violence against their partners, yet the prevalence and etiology of female-perpetrated IPV, especially in comparison with IPV victimization among females, remains largely understudied in low-resource, high-prevalence countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Using multivariate logistic regression models, the current study examines the prevalence of and risk factors associated with past 12-month experiences of isolated physical IPV perpetration (i.e., violence perpetrated against an intimate partner not in self-defense) and physical IPV victimization among a nationally representative sample of women of reproductive age (15-49 years) from Tanzania who completed the Tanzanian Demographic and Health Survey Domestic Violence Module (n = 5,372). Approximately 1.5% reported perpetrating violence in the past 12 months, whereas 35% reported victimization in the same time period. Risk factors of past 12-month IPV perpetration included past 12-month IPV victimization, making cash or in-kind earnings, having autonomy in decision making, and acceptance of justifications for wife beating. Women much younger than their partners had lower odds of IPV perpetration. Risk factors of past 12-month IPV victimization included past 12-month IPV perpetration, educational attainment, having children, partner's alcohol consumption, partner's decision making, acceptance of justifications for wife beating, and exposure to parental IPV. Making cash or in-kind earnings was the only protective factor against victimization. Findings suggest that female IPV perpetration and victimization may result from a combination of factors including power differentials between partners and attitudes about the acceptability of using violence. Future research directions and implications for policy and prevention efforts to reduce IPV in Tanzania are discussed.


Subject(s)
Crime Victims , Intimate Partner Violence , Adolescent , Adult , Child , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Prevalence , Risk Factors , Tanzania/epidemiology , Young Adult
20.
J Interpers Violence ; 36(7-8): NP4230-NP4249, 2021 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29991312

ABSTRACT

Although numerous studies have established a link between intimate partner violence (IPV) victimization and maternal mental health, extant research examining this association has not considered heterogeneity in the forms of IPV that women experience. This is an important gap given that typological perspectives suggest that mental health consequences of IPV victimization may depend on the particular pattern of IPV that is experienced. The current study used latent class analysis to (a) identify and characterize distinct patterns of physical, psychological, and sexual IPV and male controlling behavior in a sample of pregnant South African women (n = 1,480) and (b) examine associations between IPV patterns and emotional distress during pregnancy (baseline) and 9 months postpartum (follow-up). Latent class analysis identified a three-class solution wherein the largest class demonstrated a low probability of IPV victimization across all indicators (nonvictims; 72% of the sample) and the smallest class demonstrated high probabilities of having experienced moderate and severe forms of IPV victimization as well as male controlling behavior (multiform severe controlling IPV; 4% of the sample). A third class (moderate IPV) was identified for which there was a high probability of experiencing moderate, but not severe, physical and psychological IPV (24% of the sample). Age, education, cohabitation status, experience of childhood abuse, and forced first sex were associated with class membership. Multiform severe controlling IPV victims reported significantly greater emotional distress than moderate IPV victims and nonvictims at baseline and follow-up. The results contribute to understanding heterogeneity in the patterns of IPV that women experience that may reflect distinct etiological processes and warrant distinct prevention and treatment approaches.


Subject(s)
Bullying , Crime Victims , Intimate Partner Violence , Psychological Distress , Child , Female , Humans , Male , Postpartum Period , Pregnancy
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