Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Is Associated with Common Genetic Variants and Limited Rare Variants.

Rationale: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a rare, irreversible, and progressive disease of the lungs. Common genetic variants, in addition to nongenetic factors, have been consistently associated with IPF. Rare variants identified by candidate gene, family-based, and exome studies have also been reported to associate with IPF. However, the extent to which rare variants, genome-wide, may contribute to the risk of IPF remains unknown. Objectives: We used whole-genome sequencing to investigate the role of rare variants, genome-wide, on IPF risk. Methods: As part of the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine Program, we sequenced 2,180 cases of IPF. Association testing focused on the aggregated effect of rare variants (minor allele frequency ⩽0.01) within genes or regions. We also identified individual rare variants that are influential within genes and estimated the heritability of IPF on the basis of rare and common variants. Measurements and Main Results: Rare variants in both TERT and RTEL1 were significantly associated with IPF. A single rare variant in each of the TERT and RTEL1 genes was found to consistently influence the aggregated test statistics. There was no significant evidence of association with other previously reported rare variants. The SNP heritability of IPF was estimated to be 32% (SE = 3%). Conclusions: Rare variants within the TERT and RTEL1 genes and well-established common variants have the largest contribution to IPF risk overall. Efforts in risk profiling or the development of therapies for IPF that focus on TERT, RTEL1, common variants, and environmental risk factors are likely to have the largest impact on this complex disease.

Agent Orange Exposure and Risk of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis among U.S. Veterans.

Rationale: There is limited literature exploring the relationship between military exposures and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Objectives: To evaluate whether exposure to Agent Orange is associated with an increased risk of IPF among veterans. Methods: We used Veterans Health Administration data to identify patients diagnosed with IPF between 2010 and 2019. We restricted the cohort to male Vietnam veterans and performed multivariate logistic regression to examine the association between presumptive Agent Orange exposure and IPF. We conducted sensitivity analyses restricting the cohort to army veterans (highest theoretical burden of exposure, surrogate for dose response) and a more specific case definition of IPF. Fine-Gray competing risk models were used to evaluate age to IPF diagnosis. Measurements and Main Results: Among 3.6 million male Vietnam veterans, 948,103 (26%) had presumptive Agent Orange exposure. IPF occurred in 2.2% of veterans with Agent Orange exposure versus 1.9% without exposure (odds ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.16; P < 0.001). The relationship persisted after adjusting for known IPF risk factors (odds ratio, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.06-1.10; P < 0.001). The attributable risk among exposed veterans was 7% (95% CI, 5.3-8.7%; P < 0.001). Numerically greater risk was observed when restricting the cohort to 1) Vietnam veterans who served in the army and 2) a more specific definition of IPF. After accounting for the competing risk of death, veterans with Agent Orange exposure were still more likely to develop IPF. Conclusions: Presumptive Agent Orange exposure is associated with greater risk of IPF. Future research should validate this association and investigate the biological mechanisms involved.

Integrating Clinical Probability into the Diagnostic Approach to Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: An International Working Group Perspective.

Background: When considering the diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), experienced clinicians integrate clinical features that help to differentiate IPF from other fibrosing interstitial lung diseases, thus generating a "pre-test" probability of IPF. The aim of this international working group perspective was to summarize these features using a tabulated approach similar to chest HRCT and histopathologic patterns reported in the international guidelines for the diagnosis of IPF, and to help formally incorporate these clinical likelihoods into diagnostic reasoning to facilitate the diagnosis of IPF. Methods: The committee group identified factors that influence the clinical likelihood of a diagnosis of IPF, which was categorized as a pre-test clinical probability of IPF into "high" (70-100%), "intermediate" (30-70%), or "low" (0-30%). After integration of radiological and histopathological features, the post-test probability of diagnosis was categorized into "definite" (90-100%), "high confidence" (70-89%), "low confidence" (51-69%), or "low" (0-50%) probability of IPF. Findings: A conceptual Bayesian framework was created, integrating the clinical likelihood of IPF ("pre-test probability of IPF") with the HRCT pattern, the histopathology pattern when available, and/or the pattern of observed disease behavior, into a "post-test probability of IPF." The diagnostic probability of IPF was expressed using an adapted diagnostic ontology for fibrotic interstitial lung diseases. Interpretation: The present approach will help incorporate the clinical judgment into the diagnosis of IPF, thus facilitating the application of IPF diagnostic guidelines and, ultimately improving diagnostic confidence and reducing the need for invasive diagnostic techniques.

Relative environmental and social disadvantage in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution exposure is associated with disease severity, progression and mortality in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Combined impacts of environmental and socioeconomic factors on outcomes in patients with IPF are unknown. The objectives of this study were to characterise the relationships between relative environmental and social disadvantage with clinical outcomes in patients with IPF. METHODS: Patients with IPF were identified from a longitudinal database at University of California, San Francisco. Residential addresses were geocoded and linked to the CalEnviroScreen 3.0 (CES), a tool that quantifies environmental burden in California communities, combining population, environmental and pollution vulnerability into individual and composite scores (higher scores indicating greater disadvantage). Unadjusted and adjusted linear and logistic regression and Fine and Gray proportional hazards models were used. RESULTS: 603 patients were included. Higher CES was associated with lower baseline forced vital capacity ( ß =-0.073, 95% CI -0.13 to -0.02; p=0.006) and diffusion capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide ( ß =-0.11, 95% CI -0.16 to -0.06; p<0.001). Patients in the highest population vulnerability quartile were less likely to be on antifibrotic therapy (OR=0.33; 95% CI 0.18 to 0.60; p=0.001) at time of enrolment, compared with those in the lowest quartile. An association between CES and mortality was suggested, but sensitivity analyses demonstrated inconsistent results. Relative disadvantage of the study cohort appeared lower compared with the general population. CONCLUSIONS: Higher environmental exposures and vulnerability were associated with lower baseline lung function and lower antifibrotic use, suggesting that relative socioenvironmental disadvantage has meaningful impacts on patients with IPF.

Acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: international survey and call for harmonisation.

Acute exacerbation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (AE-IPF) is an often deadly complication of IPF. No focussed international guidelines for the management of AE-IPF exist. The aim of this international survey was to assess the global variability in prevention, diagnostic and treatment strategies for AE-IPF.Pulmonologists with ILD expertise were invited to participate in a survey designed by an international expert panel.509 pulmonologists from 66 countries responded. Significant geographical variability in approaches to manage AE-IPF was found. Common preventive measures included antifibrotic drugs and vaccination. Diagnostic differences were most pronounced regarding use of Krebs von den Lungen-6 and viral testing, while high-resolution computed tomography, brain natriuretic peptide and D-dimer are generally applied. High-dose steroids are widely administered (94%); the use of other immunosuppressant and treatment strategies is highly variable. Very few (4%) responders never use immunosuppression. Antifibrotic treatments are initiated during AE-IPF by 67%. Invasive ventilation or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation are mainly used as a bridge to transplantation. Most physicians educate patients comprehensively on the severity of AE-IPF (82%) and consider palliative care (64%).Approaches to the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of AE-IPF vary worldwide. Global trials and guidelines to improve the prognosis of AE-IPF are needed.

Corticosteroid use is not associated with improved outcomes in acute exacerbation of IPF.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: AE-IPF has profound prognostic implications, preceding approximately half of all IPF-related deaths. Despite this clinical significance, there are limited data to guide management decisions. Corticosteroids remain the mainstay of treatment despite a lack of strong supporting evidence and mounting concern that they may be harmful. We assessed the impact of corticosteroid therapy on in-hospital mortality in AE-IPF patients. METHODS: AE-IPF subjects were retrospectively identified in the UCSF medical centre's electronic health records from 1 January 2010 to 1 August 2018 using a code-based algorithm followed by case validation. The relationship between corticosteroid treatment and in-hospital mortality was assessed using a Cox model and a propensity score to control for confounding by indication. Secondary outcomes included hospital readmissions and overall survival. RESULTS: In total, 82 AE-IPF subjects were identified, of whom 37 patients (45%) received corticosteroids. AE-IPF subjects treated with corticosteroids were more likely to require ICU level care and mechanical ventilation. There was no statistically significant association between corticosteroid treatment and in-hospital mortality (propensity score weighted, adjusted HR: 1.31; 95% CI: 0.26-6.55; P = 0.74). Overall survival was reduced in AE-IPF subjects receiving corticosteroids (HR: 6.17; 95% CI: 1.35-28.14; P = 0.019). CONCLUSION: Our study found no evidence that corticosteroid use improves outcomes in IPF patients admitted to the hospital with acute exacerbation. Furthermore, corticosteroid use may contribute to reduced overall survival following an exacerbation. Observational cohort studies using larger real-world cohorts can more definitively assess the relationship between corticosteroid treatment and short-term outcomes in AE-IPF.

Resequencing Study Confirms That Host Defense and Cell Senescence Gene Variants Contribute to the Risk of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

Rationale: Several common and rare genetic variants have been associated with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, a progressive fibrotic condition that is localized to the lung. Objectives: To develop an integrated understanding of the rare and common variants located in multiple loci that have been reported to contribute to the risk of disease. Methods: We performed deep targeted resequencing (3.69 Mb of DNA) in cases (n = 3,624) and control subjects (n = 4,442) across genes and regions previously associated with disease. We tested for associations between disease and 1) individual common variants via logistic regression and 2) groups of rare variants via sequence kernel association tests. Measurements and Main Results: Statistically significant common variant association signals occurred in all 10 of the regions chosen based on genome-wide association studies. The strongest risk variant is the MUC5B promoter variant rs35705950, with an odds ratio of 5.45 (95% confidence interval, 4.91-6.06) for one copy of the risk allele and 18.68 (95% confidence interval, 13.34-26.17) for two copies of the risk allele (P = 9.60 × 10-295). In addition to identifying for the first time that rare variation in FAM13A is associated with disease, we confirmed the role of rare variation in the TERT and RTEL1 gene regions in the risk of IPF, and found that the FAM13A and TERT regions have independent common and rare variant signals. Conclusions: A limited number of common and rare variants contribute to the risk of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in each of the resequencing regions, and these genetic variants focus on biological mechanisms of host defense and cell senescence.

The added value of comorbidities in predicting survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a multicentre observational study.

BACKGROUND: The gender-age-physiology (GAP) model was developed to predict the risk of death. Comorbidities are common in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and may impact on survival. We evaluated the ability of comorbidities to improve prediction of survival in IPF patients beyond the variables included in the GAP model. METHODS: We developed a prediction model named TORVAN using data from two independent cohorts. Continuous and point-score prediction models were developed with estimation of full and sparse versions of both. Model discrimination was assessed using the C-index and calibrated by comparing predicted and observed cumulative mortality at 1-5 years. RESULTS: Discrimination was similar for the sparse continuous model in the derivation and validation cohorts (C-index 71.0 versus 70.0, respectively), and significantly improved the performance of the GAP model in the validation cohort (increase in C-index of 3.8, p=0.001). In contrast, the sparse point-score model did not perform as well in the validation cohort (C-index 72.5 in the derivation cohort versus 68.1 in the validation cohort), but still significantly improved upon the performance of the GAP model (C-index increased by 2.5, p=0.037). CONCLUSIONS: The inclusion of comorbidities in TORVAN models significantly improved the discriminative performance in prediction of risk of death compared to GAP.

Significance of bronchiolocentric fibrosis in patients with histopathological usual interstitial pneumonia.

AIMS: To evaluate the clinical significance of bronchiolocentric fibrosis (BCF) in patients with a histopathological pattern of usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP). METHODS AND RESULTS: Two hundred and fifty-two patients with pathological UIP pattern were identified. Two hundred and fifteen of these patients (215 of 252) had the multidisciplinary diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Prospectively defined clinical, radiological and pathological features (including BCF) were recorded, and peripheral blood MUC5B genotype and telomere length were measured. BCF was observed in 38% (96 of 252) of all patients and 33% (72 of 215) of IPF patients; its presence was associated with a non-IPF diagnosis on multivariate analysis (odds ratio = 3.71, 95% confidence interval = 1.68-8.19). BCF was not significantly associated with environmental exposures, gastroesophageal reflux, cigarette smoking or radiological patterns. There was no significant association of BCF with MUC5B genotype or telomere length. BCF has no significant impact on survival time. CONCLUSIONS: Most patients with BCF and a histopathological pattern of UIP have IPF. However, this combined fibrotic pattern is associated with a non-IPF multidisciplinary diagnosis, with approximately one-quarter of these patients being diagnosed as chronic hypersensitivity pneumonia or unclassifiable interstitial fibrosis. The presence of BCF in these patients is not significantly associated with presumed clinical risk factors for bronchiolocentric involvement, radiological findings, MUC5B genotype, telomere length or survival time.

Identification of Diagnostic Criteria for Chronic Hypersensitivity Pneumonitis: An International Modified Delphi Survey.

RATIONALE: Current diagnosis of chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis (cHP) involves considering a combination of clinical, radiological, and pathological information in multidisciplinary team discussions. However, this approach is highly variable with poor agreement between centers. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to identify diagnostic criteria for cHP that reach consensus among international experts. METHODS: A 3-round modified Delphi survey was conducted between April and August 2017. Forty-five experts in interstitial lung disease from 14 countries participated in the online survey. Diagnostic items included in round 1 were generated using expert interviews and literature review. During rounds 1 and 2, experts rated the importance of each diagnostic item on a 5-point Likert scale. The a priori threshold of consensus was ≥ 75% of experts rating a diagnostic item as very important or important. In the third round, experts graded the items that met consensus as important and provided their level of diagnostic confidence for a series of clinical scenarios. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Consensus was achieved on 18 of the 40 diagnostic items. Among these, experts gave the highest level of importance to the identification of a causative antigen, time relation between exposure and disease, mosaic attenuation on chest imaging, and poorly formed non-necrotizing granulomas on pathology. In clinical scenarios, the diagnostic confidence of experts in cHP was heightened by the presence of these diagnostic items. CONCLUSION: This consensus-based approach for the diagnosis of cHP represents a first step towards the development of international guidelines for the diagnosis of cHP.

Diagnosis of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis. An Official ATS/ERS/JRS/ALAT Clinical Practice Guideline.

BACKGROUND: This document provides clinical recommendations for the diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). It represents a collaborative effort between the American Thoracic Society, European Respiratory Society, Japanese Respiratory Society, and Latin American Thoracic Society. METHODS: The evidence syntheses were discussed and recommendations formulated by a multidisciplinary committee of IPF experts. The evidence was appraised and recommendations were formulated, written, and graded using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation approach. RESULTS: The guideline panel updated the diagnostic criteria for IPF. Previously defined patterns of usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) were refined to patterns of UIP, probable UIP, indeterminate, and alternate diagnosis. For patients with newly detected interstitial lung disease (ILD) who have a high-resolution computed tomography scan pattern of probable UIP, indeterminate, or an alternative diagnosis, conditional recommendations were made for performing BAL and surgical lung biopsy; because of lack of evidence, no recommendation was made for or against performing transbronchial lung biopsy or lung cryobiopsy. In contrast, for patients with newly detected ILD who have a high-resolution computed tomography scan pattern of UIP, strong recommendations were made against performing surgical lung biopsy, transbronchial lung biopsy, and lung cryobiopsy, and a conditional recommendation was made against performing BAL. Additional recommendations included a conditional recommendation for multidisciplinary discussion and a strong recommendation against measurement of serum biomarkers for the sole purpose of distinguishing IPF from other ILDs. CONCLUSIONS: The guideline panel provided recommendations related to the diagnosis of IPF.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a prototype of chronic, progressive, and fibrotic lung disease. Healthy tissue is replaced by altered extracellular matrix and alveolar architecture is destroyed, which leads to decreased lung compliance, disrupted gas exchange, and ultimately respiratory failure and death. In less than a decade, understanding of the pathogenesis and management of this disease has been transformed, and two disease-modifying therapies have been approved, worldwide. In this Seminar, we summarise the presentation, pathophysiology, diagnosis, and treatment options available for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. This disease has improved understanding of the mechanisms of lung fibrosis, and offers hope that similar approaches will transform the management of patients with other progressive fibrotic lung diseases.

Pirfenidone Reduces Respiratory-related Hospitalizations in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

RATIONALE: Respiratory-related hospitalizations of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) are more frequent than those for acute IPF exacerbations and are associated with poor outcomes. OBJECTIVES: To compare the risk of nonelective hospitalization by type (all-cause, respiratory related, and non-respiratory related) and death after hospitalization with use of pirfenidone versus placebo over 52 weeks using data derived from three phase III IPF clinical trials. METHODS: Individual patient data was pooled from three phase III randomized, placebo-controlled studies of pirfenidone for IPF (the two CAPACITY [Clinical Studies Assessing Pirfenidone in IPF: Research of Efficacy and Safety Outcomes] trials and the ASCEND [Assessment of Pirfenidone to Confirm Efficacy and Safety in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis] trial), including all patients randomized to pirfenidone 2,403 mg/d (n = 623) or placebo (n = 624). The risk of hospitalization over 52 weeks was compared using standard time-to-event methods. Among those hospitalized, the risk of death after hospitalization was compared with adjustment for treatment group propensity. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A total of 1,247 patients (692 from the CAPACITY trials and 555 from the ASCEND trial) were included in the pooled analysis. Pirfenidone was associated with lower risk of respiratory-related hospitalization than placebo (7% vs. 12%; hazard ratio [HR], 0.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.36-0.77; P = 0.001), but all-cause (HR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.70-1.19; P = 0.528) or non-respiratory-related hospitalization (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 0.92-1.88; P = 0.145) was not. Among those hospitalized for any reason, treatment with pirfenidone was associated with lower risk of death after hospitalization up to 52 weeks after randomization, but this association was no longer significant with longer follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: In a pooled analysis of three phase III IPF clinical trials, patients receiving pirfenidone had a lower risk of nonelective respiratory-related hospitalization over the course of 1 year. The effect of pirfenidone on death after hospitalization is uncertain.

Effect of Emphysema Extent on Serial Lung Function in Patients with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

RATIONALE: Patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema may have artificially preserved lung volumes. OBJECTIVES: In this post hoc analysis, we investigated the relationship between baseline emphysema and fibrosis extents, as well as pulmonary function changes, over 48 weeks. METHODS: Data were pooled from two phase III, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials of IFN-γ-1b in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (GIPF-001 [NCT00047645] and GIPF-007 [NCT00075998]). Patients with Week 48 data, baseline high-resolution computed tomographic images, and FEV1/FVC ratios less than 0.8 or greater than 0.9 (<0.7 or >0.9 in GIPF-007), as well as randomly selected patients with ratios of 0.8-0.9 and 0.7-0.8, were included. Changes from baseline in pulmonary function at Week 48 were analyzed by emphysema extent. The relationship between emphysema and fibrosis extents and change in pulmonary function was assessed using multivariate linear regression. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Emphysema was identified in 38% of patients. A negative correlation was observed between fibrosis and emphysema extents (r = -0.232; P < 0.001). In quartile analysis, patients with the greatest emphysema extent (28 to 65%) showed the smallest FVC decline, with a difference of 3.32% at Week 48 versus patients with no emphysema (P = 0.047). In multivariate analyses, emphysema extent greater than or equal to 15% was associated with significantly reduced FVC decline over 48 weeks versus no emphysema or emphysema less than 15%. No such association was observed for diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide or composite physiologic index. CONCLUSIONS: FVC measurements may not be appropriate for monitoring disease progression in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema extent greater than or equal to 15%.

Efficacy and safety of nintedanib in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Nintedanib (formerly known as BIBF 1120) is an intracellular inhibitor that targets multiple tyrosine kinases. A phase 2 trial suggested that treatment with 150 mg of nintedanib twice daily reduced lung-function decline and acute exacerbations in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. METHODS: We conducted two replicate 52-week, randomized, double-blind, phase 3 trials (INPULSIS-1 and INPULSIS-2) to evaluate the efficacy and safety of 150 mg of nintedanib twice daily as compared with placebo in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. The primary end point was the annual rate of decline in forced vital capacity (FVC). Key secondary end points were the time to the first acute exacerbation and the change from baseline in the total score on the St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire, both assessed over a 52-week period. RESULTS: A total of 1066 patients were randomly assigned in a 3:2 ratio to receive nintedanib or placebo. The adjusted annual rate of change in FVC was -114.7 ml with nintedanib versus -239.9 ml with placebo (difference, 125.3 ml; 95% confidence interval [CI], 77.7 to 172.8; P<0.001) in INPULSIS-1 and -113.6 ml with nintedanib versus -207.3 ml with placebo (difference, 93.7 ml; 95% CI, 44.8 to 142.7; P<0.001) in INPULSIS-2. In INPULSIS-1, there was no significant difference between the nintedanib and placebo groups in the time to the first acute exacerbation (hazard ratio with nintedanib, 1.15; 95% CI, 0.54 to 2.42; P=0.67); in INPULSIS-2, there was a significant benefit with nintedanib versus placebo (hazard ratio, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.19 to 0.77; P=0.005). The most frequent adverse event in the nintedanib groups was diarrhea, with rates of 61.5% and 18.6% in the nintedanib and placebo groups, respectively, in INPULSIS-1 and 63.2% and 18.3% in the two groups, respectively, in INPULSIS-2. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, nintedanib reduced the decline in FVC, which is consistent with a slowing of disease progression; nintedanib was frequently associated with diarrhea, which led to discontinuation of the study medication in less than 5% of patients. (Funded by Boehringer Ingelheim; INPULSIS-1 and INPULSIS-2 ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT01335464 and NCT01335477.).

CXCL14 is a candidate biomarker for Hedgehog signalling in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is associated with aberrant expression of developmental pathways, including Hedgehog (Hh). As Hh signalling contributes to multiple pro-fibrotic processes, Hh inhibition may represent a therapeutic option for IPF. However, no non-invasive biomarkers are available to monitor lung Hh activity. METHODS: We assessed gene and protein expression in IPF and control lung biopsies, mouse lung, fibroblasts stimulated in vitro with sonic hedgehog (SHh), and plasma in IPF patients versus controls, and cancer patients before and after treatment with vismodegib, a Hh inhibitor. RESULTS: Lung tissue from IPF patients exhibited significantly greater expression of Hh-related genes versus controls. The gene most significantly upregulated in both IPF lung biopsies and fibroblasts stimulated in vitro with SHh was CXCL14, which encodes a soluble secreted chemokine whose expression is inhibited in vitro by the addition of vismodegib. CXCL14 expression was induced by SHh overexpression in mouse lung. Circulating CXCL14 protein levels were significantly higher in plasma from IPF patients than controls. In cancer patients, circulating CXCL14 levels were significantly reduced upon vismodegib treatment. CONCLUSIONS: CXCL14 is a systemic biomarker that could be used to identify IPF patients with increased Hh pathway activity and monitor the pharmacodynamic effects of Hh antagonist therapy in IPF. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Post-results, NCT00968981.

The use of pretest probability increases the value of high-resolution CT in diagnosing usual interstitial pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have suggested that non-definitive patterns on high-resolution CT (HRCT) scan provide sufficient diagnostic specificity to forgo surgical lung biopsy in the diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). The objective of this study was to determine test characteristics of non-definitive HRCT patterns for identifying histopathological usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP). METHODS: Patients with biopsy-proven interstitial lung disease (ILD) and non-definitive HRCT scans were identified from two academic ILD centres. Test characteristics for HRCT patterns as predictors of UIP on surgical lung biopsy were derived and validated in independent cohorts. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, 64/385 (17%) had possible UIP pattern on HRCT; 321/385 (83%) had inconsistent with UIP pattern. 113/385 (29%) patients had histopathological UIP pattern in the derivation cohort. Possible UIP pattern had a specificity of 91.2% (95% CI 87.2% to 94.3%) and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 62.5% (95% CI 49.5% to 74.3%) for UIP pattern on surgical lung biopsy. The addition of age, sex and total traction bronchiectasis score improved the PPV. Inconsistent with UIP pattern demonstrated poor PPV (22.7%, 95% CI 18.3% to 27.7%). HRCT pattern specificity was nearly identical in the validation cohort (92.7%, 95% CI 82.4% to 98.0%). The substantially higher prevalence of UIP pattern in the validation cohort improved the PPV of HRCT patterns. CONCLUSIONS: A possible UIP pattern on HRCT has high specificity for UIP on surgical lung biopsy, but PPV is highly dependent on underlying prevalence. Adding clinical and radiographic features to possible UIP pattern on HRCT may provide sufficient probability of histopathological UIP across prevalence ranges to change clinical decision-making.