Low probability of disease cure in advanced ovarian carcinomas before the PARP inhibitor era.

BACKGROUND: In ovarian carcinomas, the likelihood of disease cure following first-line medical-surgical treatment has been poorly addressed. The objective was to: (a) assess the likelihood of long-term disease-free (LDF) > 5 years; and (b) evaluate the impact of the tumour primary chemosensitivity (assessed with the modelled CA-125 KELIM) with respect to disease stage, and completeness of debulking surgery. METHODS: Three Phase III trial datasets (AGO-OVAR 9; AGO-OVAR 7; ICON-7) were retrospectively investigated in an "adjuvant dataset", whilst the Netherlands Cancer Registry was used in a "neoadjuvant dataset". The prognostic values of KELIM, disease stage and surgery outcomes regarding the likelihood of LDF were assessed using univariate/multivariate analyses. RESULTS: Of 2029 patients in the "adjuvant dataset", 82 (4.0%) experienced LDF (Stage I-II: 25.9%; III: 2.1%; IV: 0.5%). Multivariate analyses identified disease stage and KELIM (OR = 4.24) as independent prognostic factors. Among the 1452 patients from the "neoadjuvant dataset", 36 (2.4%) had LDF (Stage II-III: 3.3%; IV: 1.3%). Using multivariate tests, high-risk diseases (OR = 0.18) and KELIM (OR = 2.96) were significant. CONCLUSION: The probability of LDF > 5 years after first-line treatment in 3486 patients (<4%) was lower than thought. These data could represent a reference for future studies meant to assess progress related to PARP inhibitors.

Comparative analysis of predictive values of the kinetics of 11 circulating miRNAs and of CA125 in ovarian cancer during first line treatment (a GINECO study).

OBJECTIVE: MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are promising biomarkers in ovarian cancer. Their kinetics during treatment might be useful for monitoring disease burden, and guiding treatments in patients treated with peri-operative chemotherapy and interval debulking surgery (IDS). METHODS: Serial blood samples of patients enrolled in the randomized phase II CHIVA trial, comparing first line carboplatin-paclitaxel +/- nintedanib (NCT01583322) and IDS, were investigated to assess the kinetics of 11 relevant miRNAs. Their prognostic/predictive values regarding the likelihood of complete IDS, and the patient survival, were assessed and compared to those of CA125 kinetics. The selection of the miRNAs (miR-15b-5p, miR-16-5p, miR-20a-5p, miR-21-5p, miR-93-5p, miR-122-5p, miR-150-5p, miR-195-5p, miR-200b-3p, miR-148b-5p and miR-34a-5p) was based on the expression levels found with a large explorative panel, and on the literature data. RESULTS: 756 serial blood samples from 119 patients were analyzed for a total of 8172 miRNA assays, and 1299 CA125 values. The longitudinal kinetics of the miRNA expressions were highly inconsistent, and were not related to CA125 dynamics. The miRNA changes during neoadjuvant treatment were not found associated with RECIST tumor response or IDS outcomes. Decreases of miR-34a-5p and miR-93-5p were associated with PFS benefit (p = .009) and OS benefits (p < .001), respectively, using univariate tests. CONCLUSIONS: The longitudinal kinetics of miRNA expressions during neoadjuvant treatment in ovarian cancer patients were inconsistent, and were not found to be associated with tumor burden changes. Although some prognostic value could be discussed, no predictive value regarding tumor responses or IDS quality could be identified.

EVESOR, a model-based, multiparameter, Phase I trial to optimize the benefit/toxicity ratio of everolimus and sorafenib.

AIM: This novel multiparameter Phase I study aimed to optimize doses/dosing schedules of everolimus and sorafenib drug combination, based on modeling/simulation (NCT01932177). PATIENTS & METHODS: About 26 patients with solid tumors were treated in four different dosing schedules. Everolimus once daily + sorafenib twice daily were given continuously in arms A and B, and intermittently in arms C (alternating every other week) and D (everolimus continuous and sorafenib 3 days on/4 days off). RESULTS: Continuous schedules exhibited higher toxicity risks than intermittent schedules (64.1 vs 35.9%; p < 0.0001), and trends for lower disease control rates (80 vs 100%). No significant pharmacokinetic interaction was identified. CONCLUSION: Feasibility of EVESOR trial is demonstrated. Intermittent schedules might provide better tolerance and efficacy than continuous schedules.

Dynamic modeling in ovarian cancer: an original approach linking early changes in modeled longitudinal CA-125 kinetics and survival to help decisions in early drug development.

OBJECTIVE: Early prediction of the expected benefit of treatment in recurrent ovarian cancer (ROC) patients may help in drug development decisions. The actual value of 50% CA-125 decrease is being reconsidered. The main objective of the present study was to quantify the links between longitudinal assessments of CA-125 kinetics and progression-free survival (PFS) in treated recurrent ovarian cancer (ROC) patients. METHODS: The CALYPSO randomized phase III trial database comparing two platinum-based regimens in ROC patients was randomly split into a "learning dataset" and a "validation dataset". A parametric survival model was developed to associate longitudinal modeled CA-125 changes (ΔCA125), predictive factors, and PFS. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated with simulations. RESULTS: The PFS of 534 ROC patients were properly characterized by a parametric mathematical model. The modeled ΔCA125 from baseline to week 6 was a better predictor of PFS than the modeled fractional change in tumor size. Simulations confirmed the model's predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS: We present the first parametric survival model quantifying the relationship between PFS and longitudinal CA-125 kinetics in treated ROC patients. The model enabled calculation of the increase in ΔCA125 required to observe a predetermined benefit in PFS to compare therapeutic strategies in populations. Therefore, ΔCA125 may be a predictive marker of the expected gain in PFS and an early predictive tool in drug development decisions.

Open-label uncontrolled pilot study to evaluate complementary therapy with Ruta graveolens 9c in patients with advanced cancer.

BACKGROUND: Patients with advanced metastatic disease are often treated aggressively with multiple lines of chemotherapy, even in the last month of life. The benefit of such an approach remains uncertain. The objective of the study was to investigate whether Ruta graveolens 9c homeopathic medicine can improve quality of life (QoL) and tumour progression in patients with advanced cancer. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This was a single-centre, open-label, uncontrolled, pilot study. Patients (>18-years, life-expectancy ≥3 months, performance status ≤2) with locally-advanced solid tumours or metastases, previously treated with all available standard anti-cancer treatments were recruited. Oral treatment consisted of two 1-mL ampoules of Ruta graveolens (9c dilution) given daily for a minimum of 8 weeks, or until tumour and/or clinical progression. Primary outcome was QoL measured using the EORTC QLQ-C30 questionnaire. Secondary outcome measures were anxiety/depression measured using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), WHO performance status (PS), tumour progression assessed using RECIST criteria and tumour markers, survival and tolerance. RESULTS: Thirty-one patients were included (mean age: 64.3 years). Mean duration of treatment was 3.3 months (median: 2.1). QoL global health status improved significantly between baseline and week 8 (P < 0.001) and week 16 (P = 0.035), but was at the limit of significance (P = 0.057) at the end of the study. There was no significant change in anxiety/depression or PS during treatment. Ruta graveolens 9c had no obvious effect on tumour progression. Median survival was 6.7 months [95%CI: 4.8-14.9]. Ruta graveolens 9c was well-tolerated. CONCLUSION: Some patients treated with Ruta graveolens 9c had a transitory improvement in QoL, but the effectiveness of this treatment remains to be confirmed in further studies.

Prognostic Value of the Modeled Prostate-Specific Antigen KELIM Confirmation in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer Treated With Taxanes in FIRSTANA.

PURPOSE: In a previous exploratory study, modeled early longitudinal prostate-specific antigen (PSA) kinetics observed within the 100-first treatment days with androgen deprivation therapy with or without docetaxel was associated with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with prostate cancer with rising PSA levels after primary local therapy. This prognostic value had to be confirmed in different settings. The objectives were to assess PSA kinetics modeling in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) treated with chemotherapy in FIRSTANA trial and to investigate modeled PSA kinetic parameters prognostic/predictive value. MATERIALS AND METHODS: FIRSTANA phase III trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01308567) assessed whether cabazitaxel is superior to docetaxel in terms of PFS/OS in patients with chemotherapy-naïve mCRPC. PSA longitudinal kinetics was assessed using the previous kinetic-pharmacodynamics model. Patient modeled ELIMination rate constant K (PSA.KELIM) was used to categorize favorable/unfavorable PSA declines (standardized PSA.KELIM < or ≥ 1.0 days-1) and further correlated with PFS/OS. RESULTS: In total, 1,050 of 1,168 enrolled patients were assessable for PSA.KELIM estimation. The median PSA.KELIM was 0.02 days-1. In univariate analyses, PSA.KELIM exhibited a significant prognostic value regarding survival: unfavorable versus favorable PSA.KELIM; median PFS, 3.6 months (95% CI, 3.0 to 4.2) versus 4.7 months (95% CI, 3.9 to 5.2), P = .002; median OS, 17.4 months (95% CI, 14.8 to 19.3) versus 28.4 months (95% CI, 26.7 to 31.6), P < .001. In multivariate analyses, PSA.KELIM was significant for PFS (hazard ratio [HR], 0.79 [95% CI, 0.67 to 0.93], P = .005) and OS (HR, 0.51 [95% CI, 0.44 to 0.60], P < .001), together with baseline radiological tumor progression and PSA doubling time. PSA.KELIM predictive value was not significant across treatment arms. CONCLUSION: This external validation study confirmed previous results about modeled PSA longitudinal kinetics prognostic value regarding PFS/OS in patients with mCRPC treated with taxanes. PSA.KELIM could be used to identify a subpopulation with poor prognosis, who may benefit from treatment intensification.

Confirmation of the utility of the CA-125 elimination rate (KELIM) as an indicator of the chemosensitivity in advanced-stage ovarian cancer in a "real-life setting".

OBJECTIVE: The modeled CA-125 ELIMination rate constant K (KELIM) has been validated as a marker of response to chemotherapy in >12,000 patients with advanced epithelial ovarian carcinoma (EOC) treated in first-line setting enrolled in >12 clinical trials. Patient KELIM is calculable online https://www.biomarker-kinetics.org/presentation. The objective was to investigate the prognostic value of KELIM in a large real-life national cancer registry with non-selected patients. METHODS: We investigated 4,025 EOC patients from the Netherlands Cancer Registry treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) ± followed by interval debulking surgery (IDS). Patient KELIM values were calculated in patients with ≥ 3 CA-125 measurements during NACT. KELIM was standardized with a pre-specified cut-off and scored as unfavorable/favorable (<1.0/≥1.0). KELIM's prognostic value regarding radiological response, completeness of IDS, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) was assessed using univariate/multivariate analyses. RESULTS: The data from 1,582 patients treated with heterogeneous chemotherapy regimens and sequences were assessable. KELIM was prognostic for radiological response and the likelihood of complete IDS after NACT (odds ratio=2.59; 95% confidence interval [CI]=2.04-3.29). Moreover, KELIM was independently associated with PFS (hazard ratio [HR]=0.76; 95% CI=0.66-0.87), and OS (HR=0.79; 95% CI=0.69-0.91). Combining KELIM with the completeness of the IDS resulted in 3 prognostic groups (satisfactory, intermediate, and poor) with significant OS differences, namely a good, intermediate, and poor survival respectively. CONCLUSION: The value of KELIM, as a pragmatic indicator of response to chemotherapy, was maintained in a large real-life population-based cohort, highlighting its applicability in routine conditions.

The strong prognostic value of KELIM, a model-based parameter from CA 125 kinetics in ovarian cancer: data from CALYPSO trial (a GINECO-GCIG study).

BACKGROUND: Unexpected results were recently reported about the poor surrogacy of Gynecologic Cancer Intergroup (GCIG) defined CA-125 response in recurrent ovarian cancer (ROC) patients. Mathematical modeling may help describe CA-125 decline dynamically and discriminate prognostic kinetic parameters. METHODS: Data from CALYPSO phase III trial comparing 2 carboplatin-based regimens in ROC patients were analyzed. Based on population kinetic approach, serum [CA-125] concentration-time profiles during first 50 treatment days were fit to a semi-mechanistic model with following parameters: "d[CA-125]/dt=(KPROD∗exp (BETA∗t))∗Effect-KELIM∗[CA-125]" with time, t; tumor growth rate, BETA; CA-125 tumor production rate, KPROD; CA-125 elimination rate, KELIM and K-dependent treatment indirect Effect. The predictive values of kinetic parameters were tested regarding progression-free survival (PFS) against other reported prognostic factors. RESULTS: Individual CA-125 kinetic profiles from 895 patients were modeled. Three kinetic parameters categorized by medians had predictive values using univariate analyses: K; KPROD and KELIM (all P<0.001). Using Cox multivariate analysis, 5 independent predictors of PFS remained significant: GCIG CA-125 response (favoring carboplatin-paclitaxel arm), treatment arm, platinum free-interval, measurable lesions and KELIM (HR=0.53; 95% CI 0.45-0.61; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Mathematical modeling of CA-125 kinetics in ROC patients enables understanding of the time-change components during chemotherapy. The contradictory surrogacy of GCIG-defined CA-125 response was confirmed. The modeled CA-125 elimination rate KELIM, potentially assessable in routine, may have promising predictive value regarding PFS. Further validation of this predictive marker is warranted.

Benefit From Fractionated Dose-Dense Chemotherapy in Patients With Poor Prognostic Ovarian Cancer: ICON-8 Trial.

PURPOSE: An international meta-analysis identified a group of patients with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) with a very poor survival because of two unfavorable features: (1) a poor chemosensitivity defined by an unfavorable modeled CA-125 ELIMination rate constant K (KELIM) score <1.0 with the online calculator CA-125-Biomarker Kinetics, and (2) an incomplete debulking surgery. We assumed that patients belonging to this poor prognostic group would benefit from a fractionated densified chemotherapy regimen. METHODS: The data set of ICON-8 phase III trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01654146), where patients with EOC were treated with the standard three-weekly, or the weekly dose-dense, carboplatin-paclitaxel regimens and debulking primary surgery (immediate primary surgery [IPS] or delayed primary [or interval] surgery [DPS]), was investigated. The association between treatment arm efficacy, standardized KELIM (scored as favorable ≥1.0, or unfavorable <1.0), and surgery completeness was assessed by univariate/multivariate analyses in IPS and DPS cohorts. RESULTS: Of 1,566 enrolled patients, KELIM was calculated with the online model in 1,334 with ≥3 CA-125 available values (85%). As previously reported, both KELIM and surgery completeness were complementary prognostic covariates, and could be combined into three prognostic groups with large OS differences: (1) good if favorable KELIM and complete surgery; (2) intermediate if either unfavorable KELIM or incomplete surgery; and (3) poor if unfavorable KELIM and incomplete surgery. Weekly dose-dense chemotherapy was associated with PFS/OS improvement in the poor prognostic group in both the IPS cohort (PFS: hazard ratio [HR], 0.50; 95% CI, 0.31 to 0.79; OS: HR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.95) and the DPS cohort (PFS: HR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.76; OS: HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.82). CONCLUSION: Fractionated dose-dense chemotherapy might be beneficial for patients belonging to the poor prognostic group characterized by lower tumor chemosensitivity assessed with the online calculator CA-125-Biomarker Kinetics and incomplete debulking surgery. Further investigation in the future SALVOVAR trial is warranted.

Mathematical modeling of the early modeled CA-125 longitudinal kinetics (KELIM-PARP) as a pragmatic indicator of rucaparib efficacy in patients with recurrent ovarian carcinoma in ARIEL2 & STUDY 10.

BACKGROUND: PARP inhibitors (PARPi) have revolutionized the management of advanced ovarian carcinoma, and were investigated as forefront treatment in recurrent disease. The objective was to explore if mathematical modeling of the early longitudinal CA-125 kinetics could be used as a pragmatic indicator of the subsequent rucaparib efficacy, like it is for platinum-based chemotherapy. METHODS: The datasets of ARIEL2 and Study 10 involving recurrent HGOC patients treated with rucaparib were retrospectively investigated. The same strategy as those successfully developed for platinum chemotherapy, based on CA-125 ELIMination rate constant K (KELIM™), was implemented. Individual values of rucaparib-adjusted KELIM (KELIM-PARP) were estimated based on the longitudinal CA-125 kinetics during the first 100 treatment days, and then scored as favorable (KELIM-PARP ≥1.0) or unfavorable (KELIM-PARP <1.0). The prognostic value of KELIM-PARP regarding treatment efficacy (radiological response, and progression-free survival (PFS)) was assessed using univariable/multivariable analyses, with respect to platinum-sensitivity and homologous recombination deficiency (HRD) status. FINDINGS: The data from 476 patients were assessed. The CA-125 longitudinal kinetics during the first 100-treatment days could be accurately assessed using the KELIM-PARP model. In patients with platinum-sensitive diseases, BRCA mutational status KELIM-PARP score and were associated with subsequent complete/partial radiological responses (KELIM-PARP: odds-ratio = 2.81, 95% CI 1.86-4.52), and PFS (KELIM-PARP: hazard-ratio = 0.67, 95% CI 0.50-0.91). The patients with BRCA-wild type cancer and favorable KELIM-PARP experienced long PFS with rucaparib regardless of HRD. In platinum-resistant disease patients, KELIM-PARP was associated with subsequent radiological response (odds-ratio = 2.80, 95% CI 1.82-4.72). INTERPRETATION: This proof-of-concept study confirms the early CA-125 longitudinal kinetics during rucaparib in recurrent HGOC patients are assessable by mathematical modeling, to generate individual a KELIM-PARP score associated with the subsequent efficacy. This pragmatic strategy might be useful for selecting the patients for PARPi-based combination regimens, when identifying efficacy biomarker is challenging. Further assessment of this hypothesis is warranted. FUNDING: The present study was supported by Clovis Oncology with a grant to academic research association.

A PK-PD model linking biomarker dynamics to progression-free survival in patients treated with everolimus and sorafenib combination therapy, EVESOR phase I trial.

PURPOSE: The objective was to develop a pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) model linking everolimus and sorafenib exposure with biomarker dynamics and progression-free survival (PFS) based on data from EVESOR trial in patients with solid tumors treated with everolimus and sorafenib combination therapy and to simulate alternative dosing schedules for sorafenib. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Everolimus (5-10 mg once daily, qd) and sorafenib (200-400 mg twice daily, bid) were administered according to four different dosing schedules in 43 solid tumor patients. Rich PK and PD sampling for serum angiogenesis biomarkers was performed. Baseline activation of RAS/RAF/ERK (MAPK) pathway was assessed by quantification of mRNA specific gene panel in tumor biopsies. The PK-PD modeling was performed using NONMEM® software. RESULTS: An indirect response PK-PD model linking sorafenib plasma exposure with soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2 (sVEGFR2) dynamics was developed. Progression-free survival (PFS) was described by a parametric time-to-event model. Higher decreases in sVEGFR2 at day 21 and higher baseline activation of MAPK pathway were associated with longer PFS (p = 0.002 and p = 0.007, respectively). The simulated schedule sorafenib 200 mg bid 5 days-on/2 days-off + continuous everolimus 5 mg qd was associated with median PFS of 4.3 months (95% CI 1.6-14.4), whereas the median PFS in the EVESOR trial was 3.6 months (95% CI 2.7-4.2, n = 43). CONCLUSION: Sorafenib 200 mg bid 5 days-on/2 days-off + everolimus 5 mg qd continuous was selected for an additional arm of EVESOR trial to evaluate whether this simulated schedule is associated with higher clinical benefit. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01932177.

Clinical results of the EVESOR trial, a multiparameter phase I trial of everolimus and sorafenib combination in solid tumors.

PURPOSE: Everolimus (EVE) and sorafenib (SOR) combination was associated with synergistic activity in preclinical models. However, previous clinical studies were hampered by cumulative toxicities when both were given continuously. The academic EVESOR trial (NCT01932177) was designed to assess alternative doses and intermittent dosing schedules of EVE and SOR combination therapy to improve the benefit-risk ratio for patients with solid tumors. METHODS: EVESOR is a multiparameter dose-escalation phase I trial investigating different doses and dosing schedules, with the final objective of generating data for modeling and simulation. Patients were allocated into continuous (A and B) or intermittent (C and D) schedules to determine the recommended phase II dose (RP2D). The clinical outcomes are presented here. RESULTS: Forty-three patients were included from 2013 to 2019. Most of them had gynecological (25.6%), cholangiocarcinomas (23.2%), colorectal (14.0%), and breast cancers (11.6%). Dose-escalation up to EVE 10 mg QD and SOR 400 mg BID was possible on intermittent schedules. Five dose-limiting toxicities were observed, and dose reductions were required in 39.5% patients, stabilizing at EVE 5 mg and SOR 200 mg BID for 58.1% of them. The overall response rate was 6.3%, and disease control rate was 75.0%. The median progression-free survival (PFS) was 3.6 months. The longest median PFS were observed in cholangiocarcinomas (9.9 months), and gynecological adenocarcinomas (9.2 months). CONCLUSION: Intermittent arms were associated with improved efficacy/toxicity profiles; and EVE 5 mg QD and SOR 200 mg BID was defined a clinically feasible dose. Strong signs of efficacy were found in cholangiocarcinomas and gynecologic carcinomas. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01932177.

Survival and modelled cancer antigen-125 ELIMination rate constant K score in ovarian cancer patients in first-line before poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitor era: A Gynaecologic Cancer Intergroup meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: In patients with advanced ovarian cancer, the modelled CA-125 ELIMination rate constant K (KELIM) is an early indicator of the tumour intrinsic chemosensitivity. We assessed the prognostic and surrogate values of KELIM with respect to those of surgery outcome (based on post-operative residual lesions) in the Gynaecologic Cancer Intergroup (GCIG) individual patient data meta-analysis MAOV (Meta-Analysis in OVarian cancer) built before the emergence of poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) inhibitors. METHODS: The dataset was split into learning and validation cohorts (ratio 1:2). The individual modelled KELIM values were estimated, standardised by the median value, then scored as unfavourable (<1.0) or favourable (≥1.0). Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) analyses were performed with a two-step meta-analytic approach and surrogacy through a two-level meta-analytic model. RESULTS: KELIM was assessed in 5884 patients from eight first-line trials (learning, 1962; validation, 3922). A favourable KELIM score was significantly associated with longer OS (validation set, median, 78.8 versus 28.4 months, hazard-ratios [HR] 0.46, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.41-0.50, C-index 0.68), and longer PFS (validation set, median 30.5 versus 9.8 months, HR 0.49, 95% CI, 0.45-0.54, C-index 0.68), as were International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage and debulking surgery outcome. Three prognostic groups were identified based on the surgery outcome and KELIM score, with large differences in OS (105.1, ∼45.0, and 22.1 months) and PFS (58.1, ∼15.0, and 8.0 months). Surrogacy for OS and for PFS was not established. CONCLUSION: KELIM is an independent prognostic biomarker for survival, complementary to surgery outcome, representing a new determinant of first-line treatment success.

Modeled Early Longitudinal PSA Kinetics Prognostic Value in Rising PSA Prostate Cancer Patients after Local Therapy Treated with ADT +/- Docetaxel.

BACKGROUND: In metastatic prostate cancer (PCa) patients, androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) combined with chemotherapy or next-generation androgen receptor targeted agents is a new standard treatment. The objective of the present study is to assess longitudinal PSA kinetics during treatment using mathematical modeling, to identify the modeled PSA kinetic parameters able to exhibit early prognostic/predictive values. METHODS: Phase III clinical trial dataset (NCT00764166) comparing ADT +/- docetaxel in 250 locally treated patients for PCa with rising PSA levels, who were at high risk of metastatic disease was assessed. A kinetic-pharmacodynamic (K-PD) model was used to fit PSA kinetics during the first 100 treatment days, to estimate the modeled PSA production rate K (KPROD) and elimination constant rate K (KELIM). The prognostic value of these parameters, considered as categorized (favorable vs. unfavorable) covariates regarding PSA progression-free survival (PSA-PFS) and overall survival (OS), was assessed using univariate/multivariate analyses. RESULTS: Data from 177/250 patients was assessed. KELIM exhibited a significant prognostic value regarding PSA-PFS and KPROD regarding OS (univariate analysis). In the PSA-PFS final multivariate model, KELIM and the primary therapy type were significant. The OS multivariate model integrated both KPROD and baseline PSA doubling-time. CONCLUSION: In this first study assessing the modeled PSA kinetics prognostic value in PCa patients treated with systemic treatments, KELIM and KPROD exhibited respective prognostic values regarding PSA-PFS and OS.

Identification of Patients With Ovarian Cancer Experiencing the Highest Benefit From Bevacizumab in the First-Line Setting on the Basis of Their Tumor-Intrinsic Chemosensitivity (KELIM): The GOG-0218 Validation Study.

PURPOSE: In patients with high-grade ovarian cancer, predictors of bevacizumab efficacy in first-line setting are needed. In the ICON-7 trial, a poor tumor intrinsic chemosensitivity (defined by unfavorable modeled cancer antigen-125 [CA-125] ELIMination rate constant K [KELIM] score) was a predictive biomarker. Only the patients with high-risk disease (suboptimally resected stage III, or stage IV) exhibiting unfavorable KELIM score < 1.0 had overall survival (OS) benefit from bevacizumab (median: 29.7 v 20.6 months; hazard ratio [HR], 0.78). An external validation study in the GOG-0218 trial was performed. METHODS: In GOG-0218, 1,873 patients were treated with carboplatin-paclitaxel ± concurrent-maintenance bevacizumab/placebo. Patient KELIM values were calculated with CA-125 kinetics during the first 100 chemotherapy days by the Lyon University team. The association between KELIM score (favorable ≥ 1.0, or unfavorable < 1.0) and bevacizumab benefit for progression-free survival (PFS)/OS was independently assessed by NGR-GOG using univariate/multivariate analyses. RESULTS: KELIM was assessable in 1,662 patients with ≥ 3 CA-125 available values. An unfavorable KELIM score was associated with bevacizumab benefit compared with placebo (PFS: HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.59 to 0.82; OS: HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.03), whereas a favorable KELIM was not (PFS: HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.79 to 1.17; OS: HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.89 to 1.39). The highest benefit was observed in patients with a high-risk disease exhibiting unfavorable KELIM, for PFS (median: 9.1 v 5.6 months; HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.78), and for OS (median: 35.1 v 29.1 months; HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.65 to 0.97). CONCLUSION: This GOG-0218 trial investigation validates ICON-7 findings about the association between poor tumor chemosensitivity and benefit from concurrent-maintenance bevacizumab, suggesting that bevacizumab may mainly be effective in patients with poorly chemosensitive disease. Bevacizumab may be prioritized in patients with a high-risk and poorly chemosensitive disease to improve their PFS/OS (patient KELIM score calculator available on the Biomarker Kinetics website).

The Increasing Prognostic and Predictive Roles of the Tumor Primary Chemosensitivity Assessed by CA-125 Elimination Rate Constant K (KELIM) in Ovarian Cancer: A Narrative Review.

Ovarian cancer is the gynecological cancer with the worst prognosis and the highest mortality rate because 75% of patients are diagnosed with advanced stage III-IV disease. About 50% of patients are now treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by interval debulking surgery (IDS). In that context, there is a need for accurate predictors of tumor primary chemosensitivity, as it may impact the feasibility of subsequent IDS. Across seven studies with more than 12,000 patients, including six large randomized clinical trials and a national cancer registry, along with a mega-analysis database with 5842 patients, the modeled CA-125 ELIMination rate constant K (KELIM), the calculation of which is based on the longitudinal kinetics during the first three cycles of platinum-based chemotherapy, was shown to be a reproducible indicator of tumor intrinsic chemosensitivity. Indeed, KELIM is strongly associated with the likelihood of complete IDS, subsequent platinum-free interval, progression-free survival, and overall survival, along with the efficacy of maintenance treatment with bevacizumab or veliparib. As a consequence, KELIM might be used to guide more subtly the medical and surgical treatments in a first-line setting. Moreover, it could be used to identify the patients with poorly chemosensitive disease, who will be the best candidates for innovative treatments meant to reverse the chemoresistance, such as cell cycle inhibitors or immunotherapy.

Bevacizumab for Newly Diagnosed Ovarian Cancers: Best Candidates Among High-Risk Disease Patients (ICON-7).

Bevacizumab is approved as a maintenance treatment in first-line setting in advanced-stage III-IV ovarian cancers, because GOG-0218 and ICON-7 phase III trials demonstrated progression-free survival benefits. However, only the subgroup of patients with high-risk diseases (stage IV, and incompletely resected stage III) derived an overall survival (OS) gain in the ICON-7 trial (4.8 months). The modeled CA-125 elimination rate constant K (KELIM) parameter, based on the longitudinal CA-125 kinetics during the first 100 days of chemotherapy, is a potential indicator of the tumor primary chemo-sensitivity. In the ICON-7 trial dataset, the OS of patients within the low- and high-risk disease groups was assessed according to treatment arms and KELIM. Among the patients with high-risk diseases, those with favorable standardized KELIM of at least 1.0 (n = 214, 46.7%) had no survival benefit from bevacizumab, whereas those with unfavorable KELIM less than 1.0 (n = 244, 53.2%) derived the highest OS benefit (absolute difference = 9.1 months, 2-sided log-rank P = .10; Cox hazard ratio = 0.78, 95% confidence interval = 0.58 to 1.04, 2-sided P = .09).

Validation of an online tool for early prediction of the failure-risk in gestational trophoblastic neoplasia patients treated with methotrexate.

PURPOSE: In a low-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN) treated with methotrexate (MTX), the modeled hCG (human chorionic gonadotropin) residual concentration (hCGres), calculated with NONMEM program® (NM) during the first 50 treatment days, is a predictor of MTX-resistance risk. This model was implemented with another algorithm on https://www.biomarker-kinetics.org/hCG . The objective was to confirm the validity of the website estimations with respect to NM. METHODS: The consistencies of modeled hCGres estimated by NM and by the website were assessed in a dataset of 60 fictive patients with simulated hCG profiles, as well as in an independent database of 531 actual patients. Moreover, the hCGres predictive values regarding MTX failure-risk were assessed. RESULTS: The values of hCGres obtained with both methods were highly consistent in the fictive patient and in the actual patient datasets: median relative prediction errors (RPE) were - 0.059 and 9.9 × 10-7, respectively. The ROC AUCs for predictions of MTX failure-risk were 0.90 (95% CI 0.87,0.93) with both NM and the website. The gradual association between increasing hCGres and the 2-year MTX failure-free survival was confirmed. CONCLUSION: There is a high consistency of hCGres estimates obtained with the two methods. The website is meant to help clinicians in the interpretation of hCG decline curves of MTX-treated GTN patients. hCGres is now validated for more than 1690 patients in four independent datasets, and its recognition as an early predictor of MTX resistance for treatment adjustment and for the future studies should be considered.

CA-125 ELIMination Rate Constant K (KELIM) Is a Marker of Chemosensitivity in Patients with Ovarian Cancer: Results from the Phase II CHIVA Trial.

PURPOSE: In patients with ovarian cancer receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy, the first-line treatment success will depend on both the tumor-primary chemosensitivity and the completeness of interval debulking surgery (IDS). The modeled CA-125 ELIMination rate constant K (KELIM), calculated with the CA-125 longitudinal kinetics during the first 100 chemotherapy days, is a validated early marker of tumor chemosensitivity. The objective was to investigate the role of the chemosensitivity relative to the success of first-line medical-surgical treatment. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: The CA-125 concentrations were prospectively measured in the randomized phase II trial CHIVA (NCT01583322, carboplatin-paclitaxel regimen ± nintedanib, and IDS, n = 188 patients). The KELIM predictive value regarding the tumor response rate, likelihood of complete IDS, risk of subsequent platinum-resistant relapse (PtRR), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) was assessed using univariate and multivariate tests. RESULTS: The data from 134 patients were analyzed. KELIM was an independent and major predictor of subsequent PtRR risk, and of survivals. The final logistic regression model, including KELIM [OR = 0.13; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.03-0.49] and complete IDS (no vs. yes, OR = 0.30; 95% CI, 0.11-0.76) highlights the preponderant role of chemosensitivity on the success of the first-line treatment. In patients with highly chemosensitive diseases, the patient prognosis was driven more by the chemotherapy-induced antitumor effects than by the surgery. CONCLUSIONS: The tumor-primary chemosensitivity, assessed by the modeled CA-125 KELIM calculated during neoadjuvant chemotherapy (http://www.biomarker-kinetics.org/CA-125-neo), may be a major parameter to consider for decision-making regarding IDS attempt, and selecting patients for treatments meant to reverse the primary chemoresistance.See related commentary by May and Oza, p. 4432.