Factors Associated with Persistence of Severe Asthma from Late Adolescence to Early Adulthood.

RATIONALE: Asthma severity in children generally starts mild but may progress and stay severe for unknown reasons. OBJECTIVES: Identify factors in childhood that predict persistence of severe asthma in late adolescence and early adulthood. METHODS: The Childhood Asthma Management Program is the largest and longest asthma trial in 1041 children aged 5-12 years with mild to moderate asthma. We evaluated 682 participants from the program with analyzable data in late adolescence (age 17-19) and early adulthood (age 21-23). MEASUREMENTS: Severe asthma was defined using criteria from the American Thoracic Society and the National Asthma Education and Prevention Program to best capture severe asthma. Logistic regression with stepwise elimination was used to analyze clinical features, biomarkers, and lung function predictive of persistence of severe asthma. MAIN RESULTS: In late adolescence and early adulthood 12% and 19% of the patents had severe asthma, respectively; only 6% were severe at both time periods. For every 5% decrease in post bronchodilator FEV1/FVC in childhood, the odds of persistence of severe asthma increased 2.36-fold (95% CI: 1.70-3.28; p <0.0001), for participants with maternal smoking during pregnancy odds of persistence of severe asthma increased 3.17-fold (95% CI: 1.18-8.53, p=0.02). Reduced growth lung function trajectory was significantly associated with persistence of severe asthma compared to normal growth. CONCLUSIONS: Lung function and maternal smoking during pregnancy were significant predictors of severe asthma from late adolescence to early adulthood. Interventions to preserve lung function early may prevent disease progression.

Stability of Do-Not-Resuscitate Orders in Hospitalized Adults: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: Prior work has shown substantial between-hospital variation in do-not-resuscitate orders, but stability of do-not-resuscitate preferences between hospitalizations and the institutional influence on do-not-resuscitate reversals are unclear. We determined the extent of do-not-resuscitate reversals between hospitalizations and the association of the readmission hospital with do-not-resuscitate reversal. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: California Patient Discharge Database, 2016-2018. PATIENTS: Nonsurgical patients admitted to an acute care hospital with an early do-not-resuscitate order (within 24 hr of admission). INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We identified nonsurgical adult patients who survived an initial hospitalization with an early-do-not-resuscitate order and were readmitted within 30 days. The primary outcome was the association of do-not-resuscitate reversal with readmission to the same or different hospital from the initial hospital. Secondary outcomes included association of readmission to a low versus high do-not-resuscitate-rate hospital with do-not-resuscitate reversal. Among 49,336 patients readmitted within 30 days following a first do-not-resuscitate hospitalization, 22,251 (45.1%) experienced do-not-resuscitate reversal upon readmission. Patients readmitted to a different hospital versus the same hospital were at higher risk of do-not-resuscitate reversal (59.5% vs 38.5%; p < 0.001; adjusted odds ratio = 2.4; 95% CI, 2.3-2.5). Patients readmitted to low versus high do-not-resuscitate-rate hospitals were more likely to have do-not-resuscitate reversals (do-not-resuscitate-rate quartile 1 77.0% vs quartile 4 27.2%; p < 0.001; adjusted odds ratio = 11.9; 95% CI, 10.7-13.2). When readmitted to a different versus the same hospital, patients with do-not-resuscitate reversal had higher rates of mechanical ventilation (adjusted odds ratio = 1.9; 95% CI, 1.6-2.1) and hospital death (adjusted odds ratio = 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.3). CONCLUSIONS: Do-not-resuscitate reversals at the time of readmission are more common than previously reported. Although changes in patient preferences may partially explain between-hospital differences, we observed a strong hospital effect contributing to high do-not-resuscitate-reversal rates with significant implications for patient outcomes and resource.

Localization of Macrophages in the Human Lung via Design-based Stereology.

Rationale: Interstitial macrophages (IMs) and airspace macrophages (AMs) play critical roles in lung homeostasis and host defense, and are central to the pathogenesis of a number of lung diseases. However, the absolute numbers of macrophages and the precise anatomic locations they occupy in the healthy human lung have not been quantified.Objectives: To determine the precise number and anatomic location of human pulmonary macrophages in nondiseased lungs and to quantify how this is altered in chronic cigarette smokers.Methods: Whole right upper lobes from 12 human donors without pulmonary disease (6 smokers and 6 nonsmokers) were evaluated using design-based stereology. CD206 (cluster of differentiation 206)-positive/CD43+ AMs and CD206+/CD43- IMs were counted in five distinct anatomical locations using the optical disector probe.Measurements and Main Results: An average of 2.1 × 109 IMs and 1.4 × 109 AMs were estimated per right upper lobe. Of the AMs, 95% were contained in diffusing airspaces and 5% in airways. Of the IMs, 78% were located within the alveolar septa, 14% around small vessels, and 7% around the airways. The local density of IMs was greater in the alveolar septa than in the connective tissue surrounding the airways or vessels. The total number and density of IMs was 36% to 56% greater in the lungs of cigarette smokers versus nonsmokers.Conclusions: The precise locations occupied by pulmonary macrophages were defined in nondiseased human lungs from smokers and nonsmokers. IM density was greatest in the alveolar septa. Lungs from chronic smokers had increased IM numbers and overall density, supporting a role for IMs in smoking-related disease.

Transitional human alveolar type II epithelial cells suppress extracellular matrix and growth factor gene expression in lung fibroblasts.

Epithelial-fibroblast interactions are thought to be very important in the adult lung in response to injury, but the specifics of these interactions are not well defined. We developed coculture systems to define the interactions of adult human alveolar epithelial cells with lung fibroblasts. Alveolar type II cells cultured on floating collagen gels reduced the expression of type 1 collagen (COL1A1) and α-smooth muscle actin (ACTA2) in fibroblasts. They also reduced fibroblast expression of hepatocyte growth factor (HGF), fibroblast growth factor 7 (FGF7, KGF), and FGF10. When type II cells were cultured at an air-liquid interface to maintain high levels of surfactant protein expression, this inhibitory activity was lost. When type II cells were cultured on collagen-coated tissue culture wells to reduce surfactant protein expression further and increase the expression of some type I cell markers, the epithelial cells suppressed transforming growth factor-ß (TGF-ß)-stimulated ACTA2 and connective tissue growth factor (CTGF) expression in lung fibroblasts. Our results suggest that transitional alveolar type II cells and likely type I cells but not fully differentiated type II cells inhibit matrix and growth factor expression in fibroblasts. These cells express markers of both type II cells and type I cells. This is probably a normal homeostatic mechanism to inhibit the fibrotic response in the resolution phase of wound healing. Defining how transitional type II cells convert activated fibroblasts into a quiescent state and inhibit the effects of TGF-ß may provide another approach to limiting the development of fibrosis after alveolar injury.

One-Year Outcomes Following Tracheostomy for Acute Respiratory Failure.

OBJECTIVES: Tracheostomy utilization has dramatically increased recently. Large gaps exist between expected and actual outcomes resulting in significant decisional conflict and regret. We determined 1-year patient outcomes and healthcare utilization following tracheostomy to aid in decision-making and resource allocation. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: All California hospital discharges from 2012 to 2013 with follow-up through 2014. PATIENTS: Nonsurgical patients who received a tracheostomy for acute respiratory failure. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Our primary outcome was 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality. We also determined hospitals readmissions rates and healthcare utilization in the first year following tracheostomy. We identified 8,343 tracheostomies during the study period. One-year mortality following tracheostomy was high, 46.5%. Older adults (≥ 65 yr) had significantly higher mortality compared with younger patients (< 65 yr) (54.7% vs 36.5%; p < 0.0001). Median survival for older adults was 175 days (95% CI, 150-202 d) compared with greater than 1 year for younger adults (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.14-1.36). Within 1 year of tracheostomy, 60.3% of patients required hospital readmission. Older adults were more likely to be readmitted in the first year after tracheostomy compared with younger adults (66.1% vs 55.2%; adjusted hazard ratio, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.09-1.29). Total short-term acute care hospital costs (index and readmissions) in the first year after tracheostomy were high (mean, $215,369; SD, $160,874). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term outcomes following tracheostomy are extremely poor with high mortality, morbidity, and healthcare resource utilization especially among older patients. Some subsets of younger patients may have better outcomes compared with the general tracheostomy population. Short-term acute care costs were extremely high in the first year following tracheostomy. If extended to the entire U.S. population, total short-term acute care hospital costs approach $11 billion dollars per year for tracheostomy-related to acute respiratory failure. These findings may aid families and surrogates in the decision-making process.

Hospital Mechanical Ventilation Volume and Patient Outcomes: Too Much of a Good Thing?

OBJECTIVES: Prior studies investigating hospital mechanical ventilation volume-outcome associations have had conflicting findings. Volume-outcome relationships within contemporary mechanical ventilation practices are unclear. We sought to determine associations between hospital mechanical ventilation volume and patient outcomes. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: The California Patient Discharge Database 2016. PATIENTS: Adult nonsurgical patients receiving mechanical ventilation. INTERVENTIONS: The primary outcome was hospital death with secondary outcomes of tracheostomy and 30-day readmission. We used multivariable generalized estimating equations to determine the association between patient outcomes and hospital mechanical ventilation volume quartile. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We identified 51,689 patients across 274 hospitals who required mechanical ventilation in California in 2016. 38.2% of patients died in the hospital with 4.4% receiving a tracheostomy. Among survivors, 29.5% required readmission within 30 days of discharge. Patients admitted to high versus low volume hospitals had higher odds of death (quartile 4 vs quartile 1 adjusted odds ratio, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.17-1.68) and tracheostomy (quartile 4 vs quartile 1 adjusted odds ratio, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.21-2.06). However, odds of 30-day readmission among survivors was lower at high versus low volume hospitals (quartile 4 vs quartile 1 adjusted odds ratio, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.67-0.89). Higher hospital mechanical ventilation volume was weakly correlated with higher hospital risk-adjusted mortality rates (ρ = 0.16; p = 0.008). These moderately strong observations were supported by multiple sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to previous studies, we observed worse patient outcomes at higher mechanical ventilation volume hospitals. In the setting of increasing use of mechanical ventilation and changes in mechanical ventilation practices, multiple mechanisms of worse outcomes including resource strain are possible. Future studies investigating differences in processes of care between high and low volume hospitals are necessary.

Protein Tyrosine Phosphatase-N13 Promotes Myofibroblast Resistance to Apoptosis in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

RATIONALE: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive, fibrotic interstitial lung disease characterized by (myo)fibroblast accumulation and collagen deposition. Resistance to Fas-induced apoptosis is thought to facilitate (myo)fibroblast persistence in fibrotic lung tissues by poorly understood mechanisms. OBJECTIVES: To test the hypothesis that PTPN13 (protein tyrosine phosphatase-N13) is expressed by IPF lung (myo)fibroblasts, promotes their resistance to Fas-induced apoptosis, and contributes to the development of pulmonary fibrosis. METHODS: PTPN13 was localized in lung tissues from patients with IPF and control subjects by immunohistochemical staining. Inhibition of PTPN13 function in primary IPF and normal lung (myo)fibroblasts was accomplished by: 1) downregulation with TNF-α (tumor necrosis factor-α)/IFN-γ, 2) siRNA knockdown, or 3) a cell-permeable Fas/PTPN13 interaction inhibitory peptide. The role of PTPN13 in the development of pulmonary fibrosis was assessed in mice with genetic deficiency of PTP-BL, the murine ortholog of PTPN13. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: PTPN13 was constitutively expressed by (myo)fibroblasts in the fibroblastic foci of patients with IPF. Human lung (myo)fibroblasts, which are resistant to Fas-induced apoptosis, basally expressed PTPN13 in vitro. TNF-α/IFN-γ or siRNA-mediated PTPN13 downregulation and peptide-mediated inhibition of the Fas/PTPN13 interaction in human lung (myo)fibroblasts promoted Fas-induced apoptosis. Bleomycin-challenged PTP-BL-/- mice, while developing inflammatory lung injury, exhibited reduced pulmonary fibrosis compared with wild-type mice. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that PTPN13 mediates the resistance of human lung (myo)fibroblasts to Fas-induced apoptosis and promotes pulmonary fibrosis in mice. Our results suggest that strategies aimed at interfering with PTPN13 expression or function may represent a novel strategy to reduce fibrosis in IPF.

Every presentation is a performance.

Good presentation skills are important. Why? When you improve your presentation skills, you improve your ability to engage your audience and communicate whatever science you happen to do. In graduate school you learn how to do research, and you sometimes learn how to teach, but how often do you actually learn how to give an effective, engaging presentation? In this personal view I recount some of my early experiences as a presenter and some of the techniques I use to (hopefully) engage my audiences.

Statistical considerations in reporting cardiovascular research.

The problem of inadequate statistical reporting is long standing and widespread in the biomedical literature, including in cardiovascular physiology. Although guidelines for reporting statistics have been available in clinical medicine for some time, there are currently no guidelines specific to cardiovascular physiology. To assess the need for guidelines, we determined the type and frequency of statistical tests and procedures currently used in the American Journal of Physiology-Heart and Circulatory Physiology. A PubMed search for articles published in the American Journal of Physiology-Heart and Circulatory Physiology between January 1, 2017, and October 6, 2017, provided a final sample of 146 articles evaluated for methods used and 38 articles for indepth analysis. The t-test and ANOVA accounted for 71% (212 of 300 articles) of the statistical tests performed. Of six categories of post hoc tests, Bonferroni and Tukey tests were used in 63% (62 of 98 articles). There was an overall lack in details provided by authors publishing in the American Journal of Physiology-Heart and Circulatory Physiology, and we compiled a list of recommended minimum reporting guidelines to aid authors in preparing manuscripts. Following these guidelines could substantially improve the quality of statistical reports and enhance data rigor and reproducibility.

CT-based Visual Classification of Emphysema: Association with Mortality in the COPDGene Study.

Purpose To determine whether visually assessed patterns of emphysema at CT might provide a simple assessment of mortality risk among cigarette smokers. Materials and Methods Of the first 4000 cigarette smokers consecutively enrolled between 2007 and 2011 in this COPDGene study, 3171 had data available for both visual emphysema CT scores and survival. Each CT scan was retrospectively visually scored by two analysts using the Fleischner Society classification system. Severity of emphysema was also evaluated quantitatively by using percentage lung volume occupied by low-attenuation areas (voxels with attenuation of -950 HU or less) (LAA-950). Median duration of follow-up was 7.4 years. Regression analysis for the relationship between imaging patterns and survival was based on the Cox proportional hazards model, with adjustment for age, race, sex, height, weight, pack-years of cigarette smoking, current smoking status, educational level, LAA-950, and (in a second model) forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1). Results Observer agreement in visual scoring was good (weighted κ values, 0.71-0.80). There were 519 deaths in the study cohort. Compared with subjects who did not have visible emphysema, mortality was greater in those with any grade of emphysema beyond trace (adjusted hazard ratios, 1.7, 2.5, 5.0, and 4.1, respectively, for mild centrilobular emphysema, moderate centrilobular emphysema, confluent emphysema, and advanced destructive emphysema, P < .001). This increased mortality generally persisted after adjusting for LAA-950. Conclusion The visual presence and severity of emphysema is associated with significantly increased mortality risk, independent of the quantitative severity of emphysema. Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Explorations in statistics: the log transformation.

Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This thirteenth installment of Explorations in Statistics explores the log transformation, an established technique that rescales the actual observations from an experiment so that the assumptions of some statistical analysis are better met. A general assumption in statistics is that the variability of some response Y is homogeneous across groups or across some predictor variable X. If the variability-the standard deviation-varies in rough proportion to the mean value of Y, a log transformation can equalize the standard deviations. Moreover, if the actual observations from an experiment conform to a skewed distribution, then a log transformation can make the theoretical distribution of the sample mean more consistent with a normal distribution. This is important: the results of a one-sample t test are meaningful only if the theoretical distribution of the sample mean is roughly normal. If we log-transform our observations, then we want to confirm the transformation was useful. We can do this if we use the Box-Cox method, if we bootstrap the sample mean and the statistic t itself, and if we assess the residual plots from the statistical model of the actual and transformed sample observations.

Identifying a Deletion Affecting Total Lung Capacity Among Subjects in the COPDGene Study Cohort.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a progressive disease with both environmental and genetic risk factors. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified multiple genomic regions influencing risk of COPD. To thoroughly investigate the genetic etiology of COPD, however, it is also important to explore the role of copy number variants (CNVs) because the presence of structural variants can alter gene expression and can be causal for some diseases. Here, we investigated effects of polymorphic CNVs on quantitative measures of pulmonary function and chest computed tomography (CT) phenotypes among subjects enrolled in COPDGene, a multisite study. COPDGene subjects consist of roughly one-third African American (AA) and two-thirds non-Hispanic white adult smokers (with or without COPD). We estimated CNVs using PennCNV on 9,076 COPDGene subjects using Illumina's Omni-Express genome-wide marker array. We tested for association between polymorphic CNV components (defined as disjoint intervals of copy number regions) for several quantitative phenotypes associated with COPD within each racial group. Among the AAs, we identified a polymorphic CNV on chromosome 5q35.2 located between two genes (FAM153B and SIMK1, but also harboring several pseudo-genes) giving genome-wide significance in tests of association with total lung capacity (TLCCT ) as measured by chest CT scans. This is the first study of genome-wide association tests of polymorphic CNVs and TLCCT . Although the ARIC cohort did not have the phenotype of TLCCT , we found similar counts of CNV deletions and amplifications among AA and European subjects in this second cohort.

Association between Functional Small Airway Disease and FEV1 Decline in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

RATIONALE: The small conducting airways are the major site of airflow obstruction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and may precede emphysema development. OBJECTIVES: We hypothesized a novel computed tomography (CT) biomarker of small airway disease predicts FEV1 decline. METHODS: We analyzed 1,508 current and former smokers from COPDGene with linear regression to assess predictors of change in FEV1 (ml/yr) over 5 years. Separate models for subjects without and with airflow obstruction were generated using baseline clinical and physiologic predictors in addition to two novel CT metrics created by parametric response mapping (PRM), a technique pairing inspiratory and expiratory CT images to define emphysema (PRM(emph)) and functional small airways disease (PRM(fSAD)), a measure of nonemphysematous air trapping. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Mean (SD) rate of FEV1 decline in ml/yr for GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) 0-4 was as follows: 41.8 (47.7), 53.8 (57.1), 45.6 (61.1), 31.6 (43.6), and 5.1 (35.8), respectively (trend test for grades 1-4; P < 0.001). In multivariable linear regression, for participants without airflow obstruction, PRM(fSAD) but not PRM(emph) was associated with FEV1 decline (P < 0.001). In GOLD 1-4 participants, both PRM(fSAD) and PRM(emph) were associated with FEV1 decline (P < 0.001 and P = 0.001, respectively). Based on the model, the proportional contribution of the two CT metrics to FEV1 decline, relative to each other, was 87% versus 13% and 68% versus 32% for PRM(fSAD) and PRM(emph) in GOLD 1/2 and 3/4, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: CT-assessed functional small airway disease and emphysema are associated with FEV1 decline, but the association with functional small airway disease has greatest importance in mild-to-moderate stage chronic obstructive pulmonary disease where the rate of FEV1 decline is the greatest. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 00608764).

Explorations in statistics: the assumption of normality.

Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This twelfth installment of Explorations in Statistics explores the assumption of normality, an assumption essential to the meaningful interpretation of a t test. Although the data themselves can be consistent with a normal distribution, they need not be. Instead, it is the theoretical distribution of the sample mean or the theoretical distribution of the difference between sample means that must be roughly normal. The most versatile approach to assess normality is to bootstrap the sample mean, the difference between sample means, or t itself. We can then assess whether the distributions of these bootstrap statistics are consistent with a normal distribution by studying their normal quantile plots. If we suspect that an inference we make from a t test may not be justified-if we suspect that the theoretical distribution of the sample mean or the theoretical distribution of the difference between sample means is not normal-then we can use a permutation method to analyze our data.

The thrill of the paper, the agony of the review.

The process of first writing a scientific paper and then responding to reviewer comments can be challenging and sometimes-some might say often-frustrating. In this personal view, I recount some of my experiences as an author, and I offer some strategies to write a paper and to then respond to comments from the people who reviewed it.

General parity between trio and pairwise breeding of laboratory mice in static caging.

Changes made in the 8th edition of the Guide for the Care and Use of Laboratory Animals included new recommendations for the amount of space for breeding female mice. Adopting the new recommendations required, in essence, the elimination of trio breeding practices for all institutions. Both public opinion and published data did not readily support the new recommendations. In response, the National Jewish Health Institutional Animal Care and Use Committee established a program to directly compare the effects of breeding format on mouse pup survival and growth. Our study showed an overall parity between trio and pairwise breeding formats on the survival and growth of the litters, suggesting that the housing recommendations for breeding female mice as stated in the current Guide for the Care and Use of Laboratory Animals should be reconsidered.

Explorations in statistics: statistical facets of reproducibility.

Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This eleventh installment of Explorations in Statistics explores statistical facets of reproducibility. If we obtain an experimental result that is scientifically meaningful and statistically unusual, we would like to know that our result reflects a general biological phenomenon that another researcher could reproduce if (s)he repeated our experiment. But more often than not, we may learn this researcher cannot replicate our result. The National Institutes of Health and the Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology have created training modules and outlined strategies to help improve the reproducibility of research. These particular approaches are necessary, but they are not sufficient. The principles of hypothesis testing and estimation are inherent to the notion of reproducibility in science. If we want to improve the reproducibility of our research, then we need to rethink how we apply fundamental concepts of statistics to our science.

Association Between Expiratory Central Airway Collapse and Respiratory Outcomes Among Smokers.

IMPORTANCE: Central airway collapse greater than 50% of luminal area during exhalation (expiratory central airway collapse [ECAC]) is associated with cigarette smoking and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, its prevalence and clinical significance are unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether ECAC is associated with respiratory morbidity in smokers independent of underlying lung disease. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Analysis of paired inspiratory-expiratory computed tomography images from a large multicenter study (COPDGene) of current and former smokers from 21 clinical centers across the United States. Participants were enrolled from January 2008 to June 2011 and followed up longitudinally until October 2014. Images were initially screened using a quantitative method to detect at least a 30% reduction in minor axis tracheal diameter from inspiration to end-expiration. From this sample of screen-positive scans, cross-sectional area of the trachea was measured manually at 3 predetermined levels (aortic arch, carina, and bronchus intermedius) to confirm ECAC (>50% reduction in cross-sectional area). EXPOSURES: Expiratory central airway collapse. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was baseline respiratory quality of life (St George's Respiratory Questionnaire [SGRQ] scale 0 to 100; 100 represents worst health status; minimum clinically important difference [MCID], 4 units). Secondary outcomes were baseline measures of dyspnea (modified Medical Research Council [mMRC] scale 0 to 4; 4 represents worse dyspnea; MCID, 0.7 units), baseline 6-minute walk distance (MCID, 30 m), and exacerbation frequency (events per 100 person-years) on longitudinal follow-up. RESULTS: The study included 8820 participants with and without COPD (mean age, 59.7 [SD, 6.9] years; 4667 [56.7%] men; 4559 [51.7%] active smokers). The prevalence of ECAC was 5% (443 cases). Patients with ECAC compared with those without ECAC had worse SGRQ scores (30.9 vs 26.5 units; P < .001; absolute difference, 4.4 [95% CI, 2.2-6.6]) and mMRC scale scores (median, 2 [interquartile range [IQR], 0-3]) vs 1 [IQR, 0-3]; P < .001]), but no significant difference in 6-minute walk distance (399 vs 417 m; absolute difference, 18 m [95% CI, 6-30]; P = .30), after adjustment for age, sex, race, body mass index, forced expiratory volume in the first second, pack-years of smoking, and emphysema. On follow-up (median, 4.3 [IQR, 3.2-4.9] years), participants with ECAC had increased frequency of total exacerbations (58 vs 35 events per 100 person-years; incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.49 [95% CI, 1.29-1.72]; P < .001) and severe exacerbations requiring hospitalization (17 vs 10 events per 100 person-years; IRR, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.51-2.21]; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In a cross-sectional analysis of current and former smokers, the presence of ECAC was associated with worse respiratory quality of life. Further studies are needed to assess long-term associations with clinical outcomes.

Pulmonary arterial enlargement and acute exacerbations of COPD.

BACKGROUND: Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are associated with accelerated loss of lung function and death. Identification of patients at risk for these events, particularly those requiring hospitalization, is of major importance. Severe pulmonary hypertension is an important complication of advanced COPD and predicts acute exacerbations, though pulmonary vascular abnormalities also occur early in the course of the disease. We hypothesized that a computed tomographic (CT) metric of pulmonary vascular disease (pulmonary artery enlargement, as determined by a ratio of the diameter of the pulmonary artery to the diameter of the aorta [PA:A ratio] of >1) would be associated with severe COPD exacerbations. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, observational trial that enrolled current and former smokers with COPD. We determined the association between a PA:A ratio of more than 1 and a history at enrollment of severe exacerbations requiring hospitalization and then examined the usefulness of the ratio as a predictor of these events in a longitudinal follow-up of this cohort, as well as in an external validation cohort. We used logistic-regression and zero-inflated negative binomial regression analyses and adjusted for known risk factors for exacerbation. RESULTS: Multivariate logistic-regression analysis showed a significant association between a PA:A ratio of more than 1 and a history of severe exacerbations at the time of enrollment in the trial (odds ratio, 4.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.43 to 6.65; P<0.001). A PA:A ratio of more than 1 was also independently associated with an increased risk of future severe exacerbations in both the trial cohort (odds ratio, 3.44; 95% CI, 2.78 to 4.25; P<0.001) and the external validation cohort (odds ratio, 2.80; 95% CI, 2.11 to 3.71; P<0.001). In both cohorts, among all the variables analyzed, a PA:A ratio of more than 1 had the strongest association with severe exacerbations. CONCLUSIONS: Pulmonary artery enlargement (a PA:A ratio of >1), as detected by CT, was associated with severe exacerbations of COPD. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT00608764 and NCT00292552.).