Prediabetes, diabetes and loss of disability-free survival in a community-based older cohort: a post-hoc analysis of the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly trial.

BACKGROUND: Evidence for the prognostic implications of hyperglycaemia in older adults is inconsistent. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate disability-free survival (DFS) in older individuals by glycaemic status. METHODS: This analysis used data from a randomised trial recruiting 19,114 community-based participants aged ≥70 years, who had no prior cardiovascular events, dementia and physical disability. Participants with sufficient information to ascertain their baseline diabetes status were categorised as having normoglycaemia (fasting plasma glucose [FPG] < 5.6 mmol/l, 64%), prediabetes (FPG 5.6 to <7.0 mmol/l, 26%) and diabetes (self-report or FPG ≥ 7.0 mmol/l or use of glucose-lowering agents, 11%). The primary outcome was loss of disability-free survival (DFS), a composite of all-cause mortality, persistent physical disability or dementia. Other outcomes included the three individual components of the DFS loss, as well as cognitive impairment-no dementia (CIND), major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and any cardiovascular event. Cox models were used for outcome analyses, with covariate adjustment using inverse-probability weighting. RESULTS: We included 18,816 participants (median follow-up: 6.9 years). Compared to normoglycaemia, participants with diabetes had greater risks of DFS loss (weighted HR: 1.39, 95% CI 1.21-1.60), all-cause mortality (1.45, 1.23-1.72), persistent physical disability (1.73, 1.35-2.22), CIND (1.22, 1.08-1.38), MACE (1.30, 1.04-1.63) and cardiovascular events (1.25, 1.02-1.54) but not dementia (1.13, 0.87-1.47). The prediabetes group did not have an excess risk for DFS loss (1.02, 0.93-1.12) or other outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Among older people, diabetes was associated with reduced DFS, and higher risk of CIND and cardiovascular outcomes, whereas prediabetes was not. The impact of preventing or treating diabetes in this age group deserves closer attention.

The Effects of Statins on Cardiovascular and Inflammatory Biomarkers in Primary Prevention: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Statins are well-established for their treatment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) due to their cholesterol-lowering effects and potential anti-inflammatory properties. Although previous systematic reviews demonstrate that statins reduce inflammatory biomarkers in the secondary prevention of CVD, none examine their effects on cardiac and inflammatory biomarkers in a primary prevention setting. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine the effects of statins on cardiovascular and inflammatory biomarkers among individuals without established CVD. The biomarkers included are: cardiac troponin, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), C-reactive protein (CRP), tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), interleukin-6 (IL-6), soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule (sVCAM), soluble intercellular adhesion molecule (sICAM), soluble E-selectin (sE-selectin) and endothelin-1 (ET-1). A literature search was performed through Ovid MEDLINE, Embase and CINAHL Plus for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) published up to June 2021. RESULTS: Overall, 35 RCTs with 26,521 participants were included in our meta-analysis. Data was pooled using random effects models presented as standardised mean differences (SMD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Combining 36 effect sizes from 29 RCTs, statin use resulted in a significant reduction in CRP levels (SMD -0.61; 95% CI -0.91, -0.32; P<0.001). This reduction was observed for both hydrophilic (SMD -0.39; 95% CI -0.62, -0.16; P<0.001) and lipophilic statins (SMD -0.65; 95% CI -1.01, -0.29; P<0.001). There were no significant changes in serum concentrations of cardiac troponin, NT-proBNP, TNF-α, IL-6, sVCAM, sICAM, sE-selectin and ET-1. CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis demonstrates that statin use reduces serum CRP levels in a primary prevention setting for CVD, with no clear effect on the other eight biomarkers studied.

Comparison of statins for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease and persistent physical disability in older adults.

PURPOSE: Recent epidemiological evidence has suggested that use of lipid-lowering medications, particularly statins, was associated with reduced cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and persistent physical disability in healthy older adults. However, the comparative efficacy of different statins in this group remains unclear. This study aimed to compare different forms of statins in their associations with CVD and physical disability in healthy older adults. METHODS: This post hoc analysis included data from 5981 participants aged ≥ 70 years (≥ 65 if US minorities; median age:74.0) followed for a median of 4.7 years, who had no prior CVD events or physical disability and reported using a statin at baseline. The incidence of the composite and components of major adverse cardiovascular events and persistent physical disability were compared across different statins according to their type, potency, and lipophilicity using multivariable Cox proportional-hazards models. RESULTS: Atorvastatin was the most used statin type at baseline (37.9%), followed by simvastatin (29.6%), rosuvastatin (25.5%), and other statins (7.0%, predominantly pravastatin). In comparisons of specific statins according to type and lipophilicity (lipophilic vs. hydrophilic statin), observed differences in all outcomes were small and not statistically significant (all p values > 0.05). High-potency statin use (atorvastatin and rosuvastatin) was marginally associated with lower risk of fatal CVD events compared with low-/moderate-potency statin use (hazard ratio: 0.59; 95% confidence interval: 0.35, 1.00). CONCLUSION: There were minimal differences in CVD outcomes and no significant difference in persistent physical disability between various forms of statins in healthy older adults. Future investigations are needed to confirm our results.

Impact of age at type 2 diabetes mellitus diagnosis on mortality and vascular complications: systematic review and meta-analyses.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Few studies examine the association between age at diagnosis and subsequent complications from type 2 diabetes. This paper aims to summarise the risk of mortality, macrovascular complications and microvascular complications associated with age at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Data were sourced from MEDLINE and All EBM (Evidence Based Medicine) databases from inception to July 2018. Observational studies, investigating the effect of age at diabetes diagnosis on macrovascular and microvascular diabetes complications in adults with type 2 diabetes were selected according to pre-specified criteria. Two investigators independently extracted data and evaluated all studies. If data were not reported in a comparable format, data were obtained from authors, presented as minimally adjusted ORs (and 95% CIs) per 1 year increase in age at diabetes diagnosis, adjusted for current age for each outcome of interest. The study protocol was recorded with PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42016043593). RESULTS: Data from 26 observational studies comprising 1,325,493 individuals from 30 countries were included. Random-effects meta-analyses with inverse variance weighting were used to obtain the pooled ORs. Age at diabetes diagnosis was inversely associated with risk of all-cause mortality and macrovascular and microvascular disease (all p < 0.001). Each 1 year increase in age at diabetes diagnosis was associated with a 4%, 3% and 5% decreased risk of all-cause mortality, macrovascular disease and microvascular disease, respectively, adjusted for current age. The effects were consistent for the individual components of the composite outcomes (all p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Younger, rather than older, age at diabetes diagnosis was associated with higher risk of mortality and vascular disease. Early and sustained interventions to delay type 2 diabetes onset and improve blood glucose levels and cardiovascular risk profiles of those already diagnosed are essential to reduce morbidity and mortality. Graphical abstract.

Older participant perspectives on permanent study drug discontinuation in an ongoing primary prevention trial of statins.

PURPOSE: Study drug discontinuation is commonplace in clinical trials of older populations. Little is known about why older participants discontinue the study drug. This qualitative study aimed to understand factors contributing to permanent study drug discontinuation among participants aged ≥ 70 years within an ongoing primary prevention trial of statins by exploring their experiences and perceptions. METHODS: Trial participants who had permanently discontinued the study drug within 2 years of randomisation were purposively sampled by age (< 75 and ≥ 75 years) and sex to participate in semi-structured phone interviews between March 2019 and February 2020. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and analysed thematically. RESULTS: Thirty participants were interviewed (21 females; mean age, 77 years), and three themes were identified from the data. Perceived adverse events (AEs) and their effect on daily living (mobility, functional capacity, quality of life) were identified as the major factors leading to the participants permanently discontinuing their study drug, despite an ambiguity about the cause of the AE. For some, concurrent challenging life circumstances further lowered their tolerance to perceived AEs thus making discontinuation more likely. A few discontinuations were attributed to other factors (e.g. GP advice, unrelated illness). CONCLUSION: Among healthy older participants enrolled in a statin trial, perceived AEs and their related impact were key factors contributing to the permanent study drug discontinuation. Addressing anticipated participant-reported AEs and their concerns about drug-related side effects at trial entry, as well as offering timely medical assistance and support when AEs occur, may be useful to reduce drug discontinuation rates.

Predictors of first-year nonadherence and discontinuation of statins among older adults: a retrospective cohort study.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to examine the level of and predictors of statin nonadherence and discontinuation among older adults. METHODS: Among 22 340 Australians aged ≥65 years who initiated statin therapy from January 2014 to December 2015, we estimated the first-year nonadherence (proportion of days covered [PDC] <0.80) and discontinuation (≥90 days without statin coverage) rates. Predictors of nonadherence and discontinuation were examined via multivariable logistic regression. Analyses were performed separately for general beneficiaries (with a higher co-payment; n = 4841) and concessional beneficiaries (with a lower co-payment; n = 17 499). RESULTS: During the one-year follow-up, 55.1% were nonadherent (concessional 52.6%; general beneficiaries 64.2%) and 44.7% discontinued statins (concessional 43.1%; general beneficiaries 50.4%). Among concessional beneficiaries, those aged 75-84 years and ≥85 years were more likely to discontinue than people aged 65-74 years (odds ratio 1.11, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.19 and 1.38, 1.23-1.54, respectively). Diabetes was associated with an increased likelihood of nonadherence and discontinuation, while hypertension, angina and congestive heart failure were associated with a lower likelihood of nonadherence and discontinuation. Anxiety was associated with an increased likelihood of discontinuation, but polypharmacy (concurrent use of five or more drugs) was associated with a lower likelihood of nonadherence and discontinuation. Statin initiation by a general medical practitioner was associated with both increased likelihood of nonadherence and discontinuation. Similar predictors of nonadherence and discontinuation were identified for the general beneficiaries. CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults prescribed statins, first-year nonadherence and discontinuation are high. Specific population subgroups such as people aged ≥85 years, those with diabetes or anxiety may require additional attention to improve statin adherence.

A 10-Year Trend in Statin Use Among Older Adults in Australia: an Analysis Using National Pharmacy Claims Data.

BACKGROUND: Statins have become standard of care in the prevention and treatment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. The objective of this study was to examine the trends in statin use among Australians aged ≥ 65 years for the period 2007-2016. METHODS: Data from the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme covering a 10% random sample of the Australian population were analysed. The 1-year prevalence and incidence of statin use were determined for each year, as were the percentage of statin dispensations according to statin type or intensity and the percentage of new users prescribed each statin type or intensity. To describe relative changes, age-sex adjusted rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were determined via Poisson regression modelling using 2007 as the reference year. RESULTS: The 1-year prevalence of statin use increased consistently each year from 34.2% in 2007 to 44.1% in 2016 (RR 1.29, 95% CI 1.28-1.31). The 1-year incidence was 68.5 per 1000 in 2007 and 59.0 per 1000 in 2016 (RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.84-0.90). Women were 18% (age-adjusted rate ratio [aRR] 0.82, 95% CI 0.79-0.83) less likely than men to initiate statins across all years. The incidence of statin use was also highest among individuals aged 65-74 years, who were about 15% (sex-adjusted rate ratio [sRR] 1.15, 95% CI 1.13-1.16) and 45% (sRR 1.45, 95% CI 1.44-1.47) more likely to initiate statins than those aged 75-84 and ≥ 85 years, respectively. Atorvastatin was the most commonly dispensed statin across all years. The proportion of new users dispensed high-intensity statins increased year-on-year from 23.6% in 2007 to 30.5% in 2016 (RR 1.26, 95% CI 1.21-1.31). CONCLUSION: The proportion of older adults in Australia using statins has increased over the last decade, although the incidence has declined. Atorvastatin is the most commonly dispensed statin and the use of high intensity statin has increased.

Improvements in life expectancy among Australians due to reductions in smoking: Results from a risk percentiles approach.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco smoking is a major burden on the Australian population in terms of health, social and economic costs. Because of this, in 2008, all Australian Governments agreed to set targets to reduce prevalence of smoking to 10 % by 2018 and subsequently introduced several very strong anti-smoking measures. On this backdrop, we estimated in 2012-13 the impact of several scenarios related to reduction of smoking prevalence to 10 % across the entire Australian population and for below specific ages, on improving life expectancy. METHODS: Using the risk percentiles method the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AUSDIAB) baseline survey and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) age-sex specific death counts were analyzed. RESULTS: Amongst men the gains in life expectancy associated with 10 % smoking prevalence are generally greater than those of women with average life expectancy for men increasing by 0.11 to 0.41 years, and for women by 0.12 to 0.29 years. These are at best 54 % and 49 % for men and women of the gains achieved by complete smoking cessation. The gains plateau for interventions targeting those <70 and <80 years. Amongst smokers the potential gains are much greater, with an increase in average life expectancy amongst men smokers of 0.43 to 2.08 years, and 0.73 to 2.05 years amongst women smokers. These are at best 46 % and 38 % for men and women smokers of the gains achieved by complete smoking cessation. CONCLUSION: The estimated optimum gain in life expectancy is consistent with potentially moderate gains which occur when both men and women below 60 years are targeted to reduce smoking prevalence to 10 %.

Vitamin E supplementation and mortality in healthy people: a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the effect of oral vitamin E supplementation on all-cause mortality in apparently healthy people. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted on randomised controlled trials (RCTs) with ≥ 6 months of follow up investigating the effect of vitamin E supplementation on healthy adults in developed countries. Electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) and reference lists of trial reports were searched for RCTs published between 1966 and June 2012. Three investigators assessed eligibility of identified trials. Disagreements were resolved by consensus. Two investigators independently extracted data according to the criteria. RESULTS: There were 18 RCTs identified with 142,219 apparently healthy participants (71,116 in vitamin E intervention groups and 71,103 in control groups) that were included in the final analysis. Fixed effect and random effects analysis of the 18 trials revealed that supplementation with vitamin E was not associated with all-cause mortality (relative risk 1.01, 95% confidence interval 0.97 - 1.05, p = 0.65). Subgroup analyses by type of vitamin E (natural or synthetic), dose or duration of exposure, study design or quality, and pre-specified mortality outcome showed no association with all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence from pooled analysis of 18 randomised controlled trials undertaken in apparently healthy people shows no effect of vitamin E supplementation at a dose of 23-800 IU/day on all-cause mortality.

Daily low-dose aspirin and incident type 2 diabetes in community-dwelling healthy older adults: a post-hoc analysis of efficacy and safety in the ASPREE randomised placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation has been implicated in the pathogenesis of diabetes. This study investigated the randomised treatment effect of low-dose aspirin on incident type 2 diabetes and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) concentrations among older adults. METHODS: ASPREE was a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of daily oral low-dose aspirin. The study population included community-dwelling individuals aged 70 years or older (≥65 years for US minority ethnic groups) in the USA and Australia who were free of cardiovascular disease, independence-limiting physical disability, or dementia. For the post-hoc analysis, we excluded participants with diabetes at baseline or with incomplete or missing incident diabetes data during follow-up. Participants were randomly assigned 1:1 to oral 100 mg daily enteric-coated aspirin or placebo. Incident diabetes was defined as self-reported diabetes, commencement of glucose-lowering medication, or a FPG concentration of 7·0 mmol/L or more assessed at annual follow-up visits among participants with no diabetes at baseline. We used Cox proportional hazards models and mixed-model repeated measures to assess the effect of aspirin on incident diabetes and FPG concentrations in the intention-to-treat population. We assessed major bleeding in participants who had taken at least one dose of study medication. FINDINGS: Between March 10, 2010, and Dec 24, 2014, a total of 16 209 participants were included (8086 [49·9%] randomly assigned to aspirin and 8123 [50·1%] randomly assigned to placebo). During a median follow-up of 4·7 years (IQR 3·6-5·7), 995 (in 6·1% individuals) incident cases of type 2 diabetes were recorded (459 in the aspirin group and 536 in the placebo group). Compared with placebo, the aspirin group had a 15% reduction in risk of incident diabetes (hazard ratio 0·85 [95% CI 0·75 to 0·97]; p=0·013) and a slower rate of increase in FPG concentration at year 5 (between-group difference estimate -0·048 mmol/L [95% CI -0·079 to -0·018]; p=0·0017). Major bleeding (major gastrointestinal bleeding, intracranial bleeding, and clinically significant bleeding at other sites) occurred in 510 (3·2%) of 16 104 participants (300 [3·7%] in the aspirin group and 210 [2·6%] in the placebo group). Compared with placebo, the aspirin group had a 44% increase in risk of major bleeding (hazard ratio 1·44 [95% CI 1·21 to 1·72]; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Aspirin treatment reduced the incidence of type 2 diabetes and slowed the increase in FPG concentration but increased major bleeding among community-dwelling older adults. Given the increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes among older adults, the potential for anti-inflammatory agents such as aspirin to prevent type 2 diabetes or improve glucose levels warrants further study with a comprehensive assessment of all potential safety events of interest. FUNDING: US National Institute on Aging, US National Cancer Institute, National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, Monash University, and the Victorian Cancer Agency.

Low-Density-Lipoprotein Cholesterol and Mortality Outcomes Among Healthy Older Adults: A Post Hoc Analysis of ASPREE Trial.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic implication of cholesterol levels in older adults remains uncertain. This study aimed to examine the relationship between low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) and mortality outcomes in older individuals. METHODS: This post hoc analysis examined the associations of LDL-c levels with mortality risks from all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and combined non-CVD/noncancer conditions in a cohort of individuals aged ≥65 years from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly trial (NCT01038583). At baseline, participants had no diagnosed dementia, physical disability, or CVD, and were not taking lipid-lowering agents. Outcome analyses were performed using multivariable Cox models. RESULTS: We analyzed 12 334 participants (mean age: 75.2 years). Over a median 7-year follow-up, 1 250 died. Restricted cubic splines found a U-shaped relation for LDL-c and all-cause mortality, cancer mortality, and noncancer/non-CVE mortality (nadir: 3.3-3.4 mmol/L); the risk of CVD mortality was similar at LDL-c below 3.3 mmol/L and increased above 3.3 mmol/L. Similar trends were observed in analyses modeling LDL-c by quartiles. When modeling LDL-c as a continuous variable, the risk of all-cause mortality, cancer mortality, and noncancer/non-CVD mortality was decreased by 9%, 16%, and 18%, respectively, per 1-mmol/L higher LDL-c, and the risk of CVD mortality was increased by 19% per 1-mmol/L higher LDL-c. Reduced all-cause and non-CVD/noncancer mortality risks were only significant in males but not females (pinteraction < .05). CONCLUSIONS: There were U-shaped relationships between LDL-c and all-cause mortality, cancer mortality, and noncancer/non-CVD mortality in healthy older adults. Higher LDL-c levels were associated with an increased risk of CVD mortality. Future studies are warranted to confirm our results.

Demand at the emergency department front door: 10-year trends in presentations.

OBJECTIVES: To measure the increase in volume and age-specific rates of presentations to public hospital emergency departments (EDs), as well as any changes in ED length of stay (LOS); and to describe trends in ED utilisation. DESIGN, PATIENTS AND SETTING: Population-based retrospective analysis of Department of Health public hospital ED data for metropolitan Melbourne for 1999-00 to 2008-09. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Presentation numbers; presentation rates per 1000 person-years; ED LOS. RESULTS: ED presentations increased from 550,662 in 1999-00 to 853,940 in 2008-09. This corresponded to a 32% rise in rate of presentation (95% CI, 29%-35%), an average annual increase of 3.6% (95% CI, 3.4%-3.8%) after adjustment for population changes. Almost 40% of all patients remained in the ED for ≥4 hours in 2008-09, with LOS increasing over time for patients who were more acutely unwell. The likelihood of presentation rose with increasing age, with people aged≥85 years being 3.9 times as likely to present as those aged 35-59 years (95% CI, 3.8-4.0). The volume of older people presenting more than doubled over the decade. They were more likely to arrive by emergency ambulance and were more acutely unwell than 35-59 year olds, with 75% having an LOS≥4 hours and 61% requiring admission in 2008-09. CONCLUSION: The rise in presentation numbers and presentation rates per 1000 person-years over 10 years was beyond that expected from demographic changes. Current models of emergency and primary care are failing to meet community needs at times of acute illness. Given these trends, the proposed 4-hour targets in 2012 may be unachievable unless there is significant redesign of the whole system.

Antihypertensive drug class in combination with lipid lowering treatment for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in the elderly.

BACKGROUND: Antihypertensives and lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) are often used concurrently. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether there was a difference in clinical outcomes when older patients with LLT were prescribed angiotensin-converting-enzyme-inhibitors (ACE-Is) compared with diuretics. METHODS: This analysis included 648 LLT older users free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) from a trial comparing ACE-I versus diuretic-based therapy. Comparisons were made between LLT+ACE-I (n = 335) and LLT+diuretic groups (n = 313) using multivariable Cox proportional-hazard models. Primary endpoints were all-cause and CVD mortality (in-trial [4.1-year]+post-trial [6.9-year]) and secondary endpoints (in-trial) were the composite of all-cause mortality and first CVD events and its components, CVD mortality and incident diabetes. RESULTS: There were no significant differences between the two groups for the primary endpoints over the in-trial plus post-trial follow-up, nor was there a difference for any secondary outcomes over the in-trial follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The LLT+ACE-I and LLT+diuretic combinations showed similar effects in CVD-free older individuals. Randomised trials are needed to provide conclusive evidence.

Impact of Blood Lipids on 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk in Individuals Without Dyslipidemia and With Low Risk Factor Burden.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association of plasma lipids with the prevalence of subclinical atherosclerosis and 10-year risk of incident cardiovascular (CV) events among healthy individuals without dyslipidemia and with low risk factor burden. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The analysis (June 24, 2020, through June 12, 2021) included 1204 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) study who were current nonsmokers and did not have CV disease, hypertension (blood pressure ≥130/80 mm Hg or antihypertensive use), diabetes (fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL or glucose-lowering medication use), and dyslipidemia (low-density-lipoprotein-cholesterol [LDL-C] ≥160 mg/dL, high-density-lipoprotein-cholesterol [HDL-C] <40 mg/dL, total cholesterol [TC] ≥240 mg/dL, triglycerides [TGs] ≥150 mg/dL, or lipid-lowering medication use) at baseline. Associations of lipids with baseline atherosclerosis (presence of carotid plaque and/or coronary calcification) and incident CV events over 10 years were examined using multivariable relative risk regression and Cox regression, respectively. RESULTS: At baseline, participants' median age was 54 (IQR, 49 to 62) years, and 10-year CV risk was 2.7% (IQR, 1.0% to 6.6%); 43.4% had subclinical atherosclerosis. A 1-SD higher LDL-C (23.4 mg/dL), TC (24.7 mg/dL), non-HDL-C (25.3 mg/dL), TC/HDL-C (0.75), and LDL-C/HDL-C (0.66) was associated with a higher prevalence of atherosclerosis of between 6% and 9% (P<.05). For every 1-SD higher LDL-C, non-HDL-C, TC/HDL-C, LDL-C/HDL-C, and TG/HDL-C (0.49), the 10-year incidence of CV events was significantly increased by 40%, 44%, 51%, 49%, and 39%, respectively. For every 1-SD lower HDL-C (13.5 mg/dL), CV risk was increased by 37%. Triglycerides had no association with either outcome. CONCLUSION: Except for TGs, all lipid variables were associated with atherosclerosis and future risk of CV disease among persons without dyslipidemia and with low risk factor burden.

The challenges of population ageing: accelerating demand for emergency ambulance services by older patients, 1995-2015.

OBJECTIVE: To measure the growth in emergency ambulance use across metropolitan Melbourne since 1995, to measure the impact of population growth and ageing on these services, and to forecast demand for these services in 2015. DESIGN AND SETTING: A population-based retrospective analysis of Ambulance Victoria's metropolitan emergency ambulance transportation data for the period from financial year 1994-95 to 2007-08, and modelling of demand in the financial year 2014-15. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Numbers and rates of emergency ambulance transportations. RESULTS: The crude annual rate of emergency transportations across all age groups increased from 32 per 1000 people in 1994-95 to 58 per 1000 people in 2007-08. The rate of transportation for all ages increased by 75% (95% CI, 62%-89%) over the 14-year study period, representing an average annual growth rate of 4.8% (95% CI, 4.3%-5.3%) beyond that explained by demographic changes. Patients aged ≥ 85 years were eight times (incident rate ratio, 7.9 [95% CI, 7.6-8.3]) as likely to be transported than those aged 45-69 years over this period. Forecast models suggest that the number of transportations will increase by 46%-69% between 2007-08 and 2014-15, disproportionately driven by increasing usage by patients aged ≥ 85 years. CONCLUSIONS: These findings confirm a dramatic rise in emergency transportations over the study period, beyond that expected from demographic changes. Rates increased across all age groups, but more so in older patients. In the future, such acceleration is likely to have major effects on ambulance services and acute hospital capacity. This calls for further investigation of underlying causes and alternative models of care.

Determining priority for joint replacement: comparing the views of orthopaedic surgeons and other professionals.

OBJECTIVE: To assess which patient characteristics influence the assessments of urgency for surgery by orthopaedic surgeons and non-orthopaedic professionals. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Cross-sectional study of 80 patients requiring elective hip or knee replacement attending a public hospital orthopaedic outpatient clinic or orthopaedic surgeon's private rooms. Patients were interviewed after being placed on the surgery waiting list. The interview asked about the severity of their joint disease and its effects on physical capability, psychological distress and social circumstances. Patient interviews were summarised and presented to assessors who ranked groups of eight patients in order of their perceived urgency for surgery. Eleven orthopaedic surgeon assessors completed 360 patient ratings and nine non-orthopaedic assessors from various professions, including physiotherapy, social work, research, management and engineering, completed 720 patient ratings. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Visual analogue scale rating of patient urgency for surgery; patient rankings for surgery; scores for individual domain contributions to urgency rating. RESULTS: A broad spread of perceived urgency was evident among the patients. For each group of eight patients, there was moderate agreement on overall urgency rankings between the two groups of assessors. Linear regression demonstrated that pain was the dominant determinant of urgency score for both assessor groups. Orthopaedic surgeons also took into account limitations to mobility and concurrent medical illness but gave less priority to psychological distress or social circumstances. For the non-orthopaedic assessors, limitations to mobility, social circumstances and psychological distress also contributed to urgency. CONCLUSION: Both orthopaedic surgeons and non-orthopaedic professionals considered pain the most important factor in establishing urgency and priority for joint replacement. Only the non-orthopaedic professionals considered psychosocial factors important when determining priority for surgery. Broader community discussion about prioritisation for elective surgery is needed to facilitate agreement about which patients factors should be considered.

Streamlining elective surgery care in a public hospital: the Alfred experience.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of redesigning and streamlining perioperative services. DESIGN: A before-and-after evaluation, with retrospective analysis of de-identified administrative data. SETTING: A major tertiary hospital, Melbourne, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Patients undergoing elective surgery, February 2005 - February 2010. INTERVENTION: Implementing a process redesign to streamline clinical pathways for elective surgery, with a focus on the patient journey from referral to discharge, and establishing a separate, dedicated elective surgery facility. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Numbers of patients waiting beyond national recommended waiting times for elective surgery; hospital-initiated postponement (HIP) rates for elective surgery; and lengths of stay (LOS), both combined and for specific diagnostic-related groups. RESULTS: The clinical process redesign resulted in a sustained downward trend in the number of elective surgery patients waiting longer than national recommended maximum waiting times. HIP rates were reduced to 1% in the dedicated elective surgery facility, and there was a significant reduction in the combined LOS, as well as the LOS for the most common surgical procedures (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical process redesign of perioperative services and collocation of a separate elective surgery centre improved (i) timeliness of care for elective surgery patients and (ii) key indicators (LOS and HIP rates) for planned elective admissions.

Systematic review of trends in emergency department attendances: an Australian perspective.

Emergency departments (EDs) in many developed countries are experiencing increasing pressure due to rising numbers of patient presentations and emergency admissions. Reported increases range up to 7% annually. Together with limited inpatient bed capacity, this contributes to prolonged lengths of stay in the ED; disrupting timely access to urgent care, posing a threat to patient safety. The aim of this review is to summarise the findings of studies that have investigated the extent of and the reasons for increasing emergency presentations. To do this, a systematic review and synthesis of published and unpublished reports describing trends and underlying drivers associated with the increase in ED presentations in developed countries was conducted. Most published studies provided evidence of increasing ED attendances within developed countries. A series of inter-related factors have been proposed to explain the increase in emergency demand. These include changes in demography and in the organisation and delivery of healthcare services, as well as improved health awareness and community expectations arising from health promotion campaigns. The factors associated with increasing ED presentations are complex and inter-related and include rising community expectations regarding access to emergency care in acute hospitals. A systematic investigation of the demographic, socioeconomic and health-related factors highlighted by this review is recommended. This would facilitate untangling the dynamics of the increase in emergency demand.