ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Obeticholic acid (OCA) is the only licensed second-line therapy for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). With novel therapeutics in advanced development, clinical tools are needed to tailor the treatment algorithm. We aimed to derive and externally validate the OCA response score (ORS) for predicting the response probability of individuals with PBC to OCA. METHODS: We used data from the Italian RECAPITULATE (N = 441) and the IBER-PBC (N = 244) OCA real-world prospective cohorts to derive/validate a score including widely available variables obtained either pre-treatment (ORS) or also after 6 months of treatment (ORS+). Multivariable Cox regressions with backward selection were applied to obtain parsimonious predictive models. The predicted outcomes were biochemical response according to POISE (alkaline phosphatase [ALP]/upper limit of normal [ULN]<1.67 with a reduction of at least 15%, and normal bilirubin), or ALP/ULN<1.67, or normal range criteria (NR: normal ALP, alanine aminotransferase [ALT], and bilirubin) up to 24 months. RESULTS: Depending on the response criteria, ORS included age, pruritus, cirrhosis, ALP/ULN, ALT/ULN, GGT/ULN, and bilirubin. ORS+ also included ALP/ULN and bilirubin after 6 months of OCA therapy. Internally validated c-statistics for ORS were 0.75, 0.78, and 0.72 for POISE, ALP/ULN<1.67, and NR response, which raised to 0.83, 0.88, and 0.81 with ORS+, respectively. The respective performances in validation were 0.70, 0.72, and 0.71 for ORS and 0.80, 0.84, and 0.78 for ORS+. Results were consistent across groups with mild/severe disease. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and externally validated a scoring system capable to predict OCA response according to different criteria. This tool will enhance a stratified second-line therapy model to streamline standard care and trial delivery in PBC.
ABSTRACT
Autoimmune liver diseases (AILDs) are complex diseases with unknown causes and immune-mediated pathophysiology. In primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) disease modifying drugs are available which improve patient quality and quantity of life. In primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) no medical therapy is available and the only accepted treatment is liver transplantation (LT). PBC, PSC and AIH possess features that describe the archetype of patients within each disorder. On the other hand, the classical disorders are not homogeneous, and patients within each diagnosis may present with a range of clinical, biochemical, serological, and histological findings. Singularly, they are considered rare diseases, but together, they account for approximately 20% of LTs in Europe and USA. Management of these patients is complex, as AILDs are relatively uncommon in clinical practice with challenges in developing expertise, disease presentation can be sneaky, clinical phenotypes and disease course are heterogeneous. Prognostic models are key tools for clinicians to assess patients' risk and to provide personalized care to patients. Aim of this review is to discuss challenges of the management of AILDs and how the available prognostic models can help. We will discuss the prognostic models developed in AILDs, with a special focus on the prognostic models that can support the clinical management of patients with AILDs: in PBC models based on ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) response and markers of liver fibrosis; in PSC several markers including biochemistry, disease stage and radiological semiquantitative markers; and finally in AIH, markers of disease stage and disease activity.