Applying infectious disease forecasting to public health: a path forward using influenza forecasting examples.

BACKGROUND: Infectious disease forecasting aims to predict characteristics of both seasonal epidemics and future pandemics. Accurate and timely infectious disease forecasts could aid public health responses by informing key preparation and mitigation efforts. MAIN BODY: For forecasts to be fully integrated into public health decision-making, federal, state, and local officials must understand how forecasts were made, how to interpret forecasts, and how well the forecasts have performed in the past. Since the 2013-14 influenza season, the Influenza Division at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted collaborative challenges to forecast the timing, intensity, and short-term trajectory of influenza-like illness in the United States. Additional efforts to advance forecasting science have included influenza initiatives focused on state-level and hospitalization forecasts, as well as other infectious diseases. Using CDC influenza forecasting challenges as an example, this paper provides an overview of infectious disease forecasting; applications of forecasting to public health; and current work to develop best practices for forecast methodology, applications, and communication. CONCLUSIONS: These efforts, along with other infectious disease forecasting initiatives, can foster the continued advancement of forecasting science.

Male-to-Female Sexual Transmission of Zika Virus-United States, January-April 2016.

We report on 9 cases of male-to-female sexual transmission of Zika virus in the United States occurring January-April 2016. This report summarizes new information about both timing of exposure and symptoms of sexually transmitted Zika virus disease, and results of semen testing for Zika virus from 2 male travelers.

A bipartite Tobacco mosaic virus-defective RNA (dRNA) system to study the role of the N-terminal methyl transferase domain in cell-to-cell movement of dRNAs.

Plant viruses, in particular Tobacco mosaic virus (TMV), are model systems to study RNA and protein trafficking in plants. Although TMV cell-to-cell transport controlled by the 30-kDa movement protein (MP) has been intensively studied, it was only recently demonstrated that the 126/183-kDa replicase proteins are also involved in cell-to-cell movement. Elucidating the role(s) of 126/183-kDa proteins in movement is complicated because these proteins have multiple functions associated with replication and gene expression. To overcome these difficulties we developed a TMV helper virus-defective RNA (dRNA) system to study the role of replicase protein sequences in dRNA cell-to-cell movement. Artificially constructed dRNAs lacking sequences encoding the helicase and polymerase domains of the replicase proteins and portions of the MP were viable in protoplasts and plants in the presence of helper virus. Expression of at least approximately 50% of the methyl transferase (MT) domain was required for efficient dRNA movement in Nicotiana benthamiana. dRNAs that encoded the N-terminal 64 replicase amino acids or lacked a translatable MT domain failed to move or moved poorly. TMV dRNAs expressing 258 amino acids of the replicase protein moved into all specialized non-vascular tissues, whereas dRNAs expressing replicase sequences beyond amino acid 258 were restricted to the epidermis and palisade mesophyll tissues. Furthermore, second-site mutations within the dRNA-encoded truncated replicase protein altered efficiency in dRNA cell-to-cell movement.