ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) incidence in India continues to be high due, in large part, to long delays experienced by patients before successful diagnosis and treatment initiation, especially in the private sector. This diagnostic delay is driven by patients' inclination to switch between different types of providers and providers' inclination to delay ordering of accurate diagnostic tests relevant to TB. Our objective is to quantify the impact of changes in these behavioral characteristics of providers and patients on diagnostic delay experienced by pulmonary TB patients. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a discrete event simulation model of patients' diagnostic pathways that captures key behavioral characteristics of providers (time to order a test) and patients (time to switch to another provider). We used an expectation-maximization algorithm to estimate the parameters underlying these behavioral characteristics, with quantitative data encoded from detailed interviews of 76 and 64 pulmonary TB patients in the 2 Indian cities of Mumbai and Patna, respectively, which were conducted between April and August 2014. We employed the estimated model to simulate different counterfactual scenarios of diagnostic pathways under altered behavioral characteristics of providers and patients to predict their potential impact on the diagnostic delay. Private healthcare providers including chemists were the first point of contact for the majority of TB patients in Mumbai (70%) and Patna (94%). In Mumbai, 45% of TB patients first approached less-than-fully-qualified providers (LTFQs), who take 28.71 days on average for diagnosis. About 61% of these patients switched to other providers without a diagnosis. Our model estimates that immediate testing for TB by LTFQs at the first visit (at the current level of diagnostic accuracy) could reduce the average diagnostic delay from 35.53 days (95% CI: 34.60, 36.46) to 18.72 days (95% CI: 18.01, 19.43). In Patna, 61% of TB patients first approached fully qualified providers (FQs), who take 9.74 days on average for diagnosis. Similarly, immediate testing by FQs at the first visit (at the current level of diagnostic accuracy) could reduce the average diagnostic delay from 23.39 days (95% CI: 22.77, 24.02) to 11.16 days (95% CI: 10.52, 11.81). Improving the diagnostic accuracy of providers per se, without reducing the time to testing, was not predicted to lead to any reduction in diagnostic delay. Our study was limited because of its restricted geographic scope, small sample size, and possible recall bias, which are typically associated with studies of patient pathways using patient interviews. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that encouraging private providers to order definitive TB diagnostic tests earlier during patient consultation may have substantial impact on reducing diagnostic delay in these urban Indian settings. These results should be combined with disease transmission models to predict the impact of changes in provider behavior on TB incidence.
Subject(s)
Delayed Diagnosis/prevention & control , Models, Theoretical , Tuberculosis, Pulmonary/diagnosis , Tuberculosis/diagnosis , Antitubercular Agents/therapeutic use , Behavior/physiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Health Personnel , Humans , India , Private Sector , Tuberculosis/drug therapy , Tuberculosis, Pulmonary/epidemiologyABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: There is a pressing need for systematic approaches for monitoring how much TB treatment is ongoing in the private sector in India: both to cast light on the true scale of the problem, and to help monitor the progress of interventions currently being planned to address this problem. METHODS: We used commercially available data on the sales of rifampicin-containing drugs in the private sector, adjusted for data coverage and indication of use. We examined temporal, statewise trends in volumes (patient-months) of TB treatment from 2013 to 2016. We additionally analysed the proportion of drugs that were sold in combination packaging (designed to simplify TB treatment), or as loose pills. RESULTS: Drug sales suggest a steady trend of TB treatment dispensed by the private sector, from 18.4 million patient-months (95% CI 17.3-20.5) in 2013 to 16.8 patient-months (95% CI 15.5-19.0) in 2016. Overall, seven of 29 states in India accounted for more than 70% of national-level TB treatment volumes, including Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Bihar. The overwhelming majority of TB treatment was dispensed not as loose pills, but in combination packaging with other TB drugs, accounting for over 96% of private sector TB treatment in 2017. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest consistent levels of TB treatment in the private sector over the past 4 years, while highlighting specific states that should be prioritized for intervention. Drug sales data can be helpful for monitoring a system as large, disorganised and opaque as India's private sector.
Subject(s)
Antibiotics, Antitubercular/therapeutic use , Health Care Sector/trends , Tuberculosis/drug therapy , Health Care Sector/economics , Humans , India , Rifampin/therapeutic useABSTRACT
In a Guest Editorial on World TB Day, Madhukar Pai and Puneet Dewan identify programmatic and policy changes needed to end TB by 2035.
Subject(s)
Global Health , Health Policy , Health Resources , Tuberculosis/prevention & control , Humans , Tuberculosis/diagnosis , Tuberculosis/therapySubject(s)
Global Health/legislation & jurisprudence , Quality of Health Care/trends , Research/economics , Tuberculosis, Pulmonary/economics , Tuberculosis, Pulmonary/prevention & control , Cost of Illness , Disease Eradication , Global Health/statistics & numerical data , Goals , Health Policy , Health Priorities , Humans , Incidence , Leadership , Mortality , Mycobacterium tuberculosis/drug effects , Mycobacterium tuberculosis/pathogenicity , Political Systems , Quality of Health Care/standards , Tuberculosis, Pulmonary/drug therapy , Tuberculosis, Pulmonary/epidemiology , World Health Organization/economicsABSTRACT
Cough is a common and commonly ignored symptom of lung disease. Cough is often perceived as difficult to quantify, frequently self-limiting, and non-specific. However, cough has a central role in the clinical detection of many lung diseases including tuberculosis (TB), which remains the leading infectious disease killer worldwide. TB screening currently relies on self-reported cough which fails to meet the World Health Organization (WHO) accuracy targets for a TB triage test. Artificial intelligence (AI) models based on cough sound have been developed for several respiratory conditions, with limited work being done in TB. To support the development of an accurate, point-of-care cough-based triage tool for TB, we have compiled a large multi-country database of cough sounds from individuals being evaluated for TB. The dataset includes more than 700,000 cough sounds from 2,143 individuals with detailed demographic, clinical and microbiologic diagnostic information. We aim to empower researchers in the development of cough sound analysis models to improve TB diagnosis, where innovative approaches are critically needed to end this long-standing pandemic.
Subject(s)
Cough , Triage , Cough/diagnosis , Humans , Tuberculosis/diagnosis , Artificial IntelligenceABSTRACT
The current active-latent paradigm of tuberculosis largely neglects the documented spectrum of disease. Inconsistency with regard to definitions, terminology, and diagnostic criteria for different tuberculosis states has limited the progress in research and product development that are needed to achieve tuberculosis elimination. We aimed to develop a new framework of classification for tuberculosis that accommodates key disease states but is sufficiently simple to support pragmatic research and implementation. Through an international Delphi exercise that involved 71 participants representing a wide range of disciplines, sectors, income settings, and geographies, consensus was reached on a set of conceptual states, related terminology, and research gaps. The International Consensus for Early TB (ICE-TB) framework distinguishes disease from infection by the presence of macroscopic pathology and defines two subclinical and two clinical tuberculosis states on the basis of reported symptoms or signs of tuberculosis, further differentiated by likely infectiousness. The presence of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis and an associated host response are prerequisites for all states of infection and disease. Our framework provides a clear direction for tuberculosis research, which will, in time, improve tuberculosis clinical care and elimination policies.
Subject(s)
Consensus , Delphi Technique , Tuberculosis , Humans , Tuberculosis/prevention & control , Tuberculosis/diagnosis , Mycobacterium tuberculosis/isolation & purificationABSTRACT
Cough is a common and commonly ignored symptom of lung disease. Cough is often perceived as difficult to quantify, frequently self-limiting, and non-specific. However, cough has a central role in the clinical detection of many lung diseases including tuberculosis (TB), which remains the leading infectious disease killer worldwide. TB screening currently relies on self-reported cough which fails to meet the World Health Organization (WHO) accuracy targets for a TB triage test. Artificial intelligence (AI) models based on cough sound have been developed for several respiratory conditions, with limited work being done in TB. To support the development of an accurate, point-of-care cough-based triage tool for TB, we have compiled a large multi-country database of cough sounds from individuals being evaluated for TB. The dataset includes more than 700,000 cough sounds from 2,143 individuals with detailed demographic, clinical and microbiologic diagnostic information. We aim to empower researchers in the development of cough sound analysis models to improve TB diagnosis, where innovative approaches are critically needed to end this long-standing pandemic.
ABSTRACT
Better access to tuberculosis testing is a key priority for fighting tuberculosis, the leading cause of infectious disease deaths in people. Despite the roll-out of molecular WHO-recommended rapid diagnostics to replace sputum smear microscopy over the past decade, a large diagnostic gap remains. Of the estimated 10Ā·6 million people who developed tuberculosis globally in 2022, more than 3Ā·1 million were not diagnosed. An exclusive focus on improving tuberculosis test accuracy alone will not be sufficient to close the diagnostic gap for tuberculosis. Diagnostic yield, which we define as the proportion of people in whom a diagnostic test identifies tuberculosis among all people we attempt to test for tuberculosis, is an important metric not adequately explored. Diagnostic yield is particularly relevant for subpopulations unable to produce sputum such as young children, people living with HIV, and people with subclinical tuberculosis. As more accessible non-sputum specimens (eg, urine, oral swabs, saliva, capillary blood, and breath) are being explored for point-of-care tuberculosis testing, the concept of yield will be of growing importance. Using the example of urine lipoarabinomannan testing, we illustrate how even tests with limited sensitivity can diagnose more people with tuberculosis if they enable increased diagnostic yield. Using tongue swab-based molecular tuberculosis testing as another example, we provide definitions and guidance for the design and conduct of pragmatic studies that assess diagnostic yield. Lastly, we show how diagnostic yield and other important test characteristics, such as cost and implementation feasibility, are essential for increased effective population coverage, which is required for optimal clinical care and transmission impact. We are calling for diagnostic yield to be incorporated into tuberculosis test evaluation processes, including the WHO Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations process, providing a crucial real-life implementation metric that complements traditional accuracy measures.
Subject(s)
Tuberculosis , Humans , Diagnostic Tests, Routine , Sputum/microbiology , Tuberculosis/diagnosisABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To determine the content of certain antituberculosis (TB) drugs supplied at TB treatment centres of the Revised National TB Control Programme (RNTCP) in the state of Tamil Nadu, India. METHODS: Eight districts across the state were selected, and the following drugs were collected from five settings (District TB centre, TB unit, designated microscopy centres, DOT providers) in each district: rifampicin (150 and 450Ā mg), isoniazid (300Ā mg), pyrazinamide (500 and 750Ā mg), ethambutol (400 and 600Ā mg), ethionamide (250Ā mg), levofloxacin (500Ā mg) and cycloserine (250Ā mg). A maximum of 10 tablets/capsules were collected from each setting. The drugs were coded prior to analysis. All drugs were assayed by validated spectrophotometric methods. The acceptable limits for drug content were taken as 90-110% of the stated content. RESULTS: More than 90% of tablets of rifampicin 450Ā mg, isoniazid 300Ā mg, pyrazinamide 500 and 750Ā mg, ethambutol 400 and 600Ā mg and ethionamide 250Ā mg were within acceptable limits. Eighty per cent of rifampicin 150Ā mg, 21% of cycloserine 250Ā mg and 87% of levofloxacin 500Ā mg were within acceptable limits. The mean cycloserine content was below the acceptable limit in all districts, the mean drug content being 200Ā mg (range: 108-245Ā mg). CONCLUSION: This systematic study showed that the stated drug content of cycloserine was not reached in all districts. Deterioration of cycloserine could be minimised by storing the drug in refrigerators. The geographical location of the districts had no influence on the drug content.
Subject(s)
Antitubercular Agents/analysis , Antitubercular Agents/standards , Tuberculosis/drug therapy , Antitubercular Agents/therapeutic use , Cycloserine/analysis , Cycloserine/standards , Cycloserine/therapeutic use , Drug Stability , Drug Storage/methods , Drug Storage/standards , Drug Therapy, Combination/standards , Ethambutol/analysis , Ethambutol/standards , Ethambutol/therapeutic use , Ethionamide/analysis , Ethionamide/standards , Ethionamide/therapeutic use , Humans , India , Isoniazid/analysis , Isoniazid/standards , Isoniazid/therapeutic use , Levofloxacin , Ofloxacin/analysis , Ofloxacin/standards , Ofloxacin/therapeutic use , Pyrazinamide/analysis , Pyrazinamide/standards , Pyrazinamide/therapeutic use , Rifampin/analysis , Rifampin/standards , Rifampin/therapeutic use , SpectrophotometryABSTRACT
The Phase II (2006-2012) of the Revised National Tuberculosis Control Programme (RNTCP) has been successful in achieving its objectives. Tuberculosis (TB) disease burden (prevalence and mortality) in India has reduced significantly when compared to 1990 levels, and India is on track to achieve the TB related millennium development goals. Despite significant progress, TB still continues to be one of the major public health problems in the country, and intensified efforts are required to reduce TB transmission and accelerate reductions in TB incidence, particularly in urban areas and difficult terrains. Achieving 'Universal access' is possible and necessary for the country. RNTCP during the 12 th Five Year Plan (2012-2017) aims to achieve 'Universal access' to quality assured TB diagnosis and treatment and elaborate plans are being made. This requires broad and concerted efforts and support from all stakeholders with substantial enhancement of commitment and financing at all levels. This paper describes the new vision of RNTCP and an overview of how this will be achieved.
Subject(s)
Government Programs , Tuberculosis, Multidrug-Resistant/diagnosis , Tuberculosis, Multidrug-Resistant/epidemiology , Health Personnel , Humans , India/epidemiology , Tuberculosis, Multidrug-Resistant/prevention & control , Urban PopulationABSTRACT
Cough assessment is central to theĀ clinical management of respiratory diseases, including tuberculosis (TB), but strategies to objectively and unobtrusively measure cough are lacking. Acoustic epidemiology is an emerging field that uses technology to detect cough sounds and analyze cough patterns to improve health outcomes among people with respiratory conditions linked to cough. This field is increasingly exploring the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) for more advanced applications, such as analyzing cough sounds as a biomarker for disease screening. While much of the data are preliminary, objective cough assessment could potentially transform disease control programs, including TB, and support individual patient management. Here, we present an overview of recent advances in this field and describe how cough assessment, if validated, could support public health programs at various stages of the TB care cascade.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The control of tuberculosis (TB) in India is complicated by the presence of a large, disorganised private sector where most patients first seek care. Following pilots in Mumbai and Patna (two major cities in India), an initiative known as the 'Public-Private Interface Agency' (PPIA) is now being expanded across the country. We aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of scaling up PPIA operations, in line with India's National Strategic Plan for TB control. METHODS: Focusing on Mumbai and Patna, we collected cost data from implementing organisations in both cities and combined this data with models of TB transmission dynamics. Estimating the cost per disability adjusted life years (DALY) averted between 2014 (the start of PPIA scale-up) and 2025, we assessed cost-effectiveness using two willingness-to-pay approaches: a WHO-CHOICE threshold based on per-capita economic productivity, and a more stringent threshold incorporating opportunity costs in the health system. FINDINGS: A PPIA scaled up to ultimately reach 50% of privately treated TB patients in Mumbai and Patna would cost, respectively, US$228 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 159 to 320) per DALY averted and US$564 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 409 to 775) per DALY averted. In Mumbai, the PPIA would be cost-effective relative to all thresholds considered. In Patna, if focusing on adherence support, rather than on improved diagnosis, the PPIA would be cost-effective relative to all thresholds considered. These differences between sites arise from variations in the burden of drug resistance: among the services of a PPIA, improved diagnosis (including rapid tests with genotypic drug sensitivity testing) has greatest value in settings such as Mumbai, with a high burden of drug-resistant TB. CONCLUSIONS: To accelerate decline in TB incidence, it is critical first to engage effectively with the private sector in India. Mechanisms such as the PPIA offer cost-effective ways of doing so, particularly when tailored to local settings.
Subject(s)
Private Sector , Tuberculosis , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Health Care Sector , Humans , India/epidemiology , Tuberculosis/drug therapy , Tuberculosis/epidemiology , Tuberculosis/prevention & controlABSTRACT
Inexpensive, simple, rapid diagnostics are necessary for efficient detection, treatment, and mitigation of COVID-19. Assays for SARS-CoV2 using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) offer good sensitivity and excellent specificity, but are expensive, slowed by transport to centralized testing laboratories, and often unavailable. Antigen-based assays are inexpensive and can be rapidly mass-produced and deployed at point-of-care, with lateral flow assays (LFAs) being the most common format. While various manufacturers have produced commercially available SARS-Cov2 antigen LFAs, access to validated tests remains difficult or cost prohibitive in low-and middle-income countries. Herein, we present a visually read open-access LFA (OA-LFA) using commercially-available antibodies and materials for the detection of SARS-CoV-2. The LFA yielded a Limit of Detection (LOD) of 4 TCID50/swab of gamma irradiated SARS-CoV-2 virus, meeting the acceptable analytical sensitivity outlined by in World Health Organization target product profile. The open-source architecture presented in this manuscript provides a template for manufacturers around the globe to rapidly design a SARS-CoV2 antigen test.
Subject(s)
Antigens, Viral/immunology , COVID-19 Testing/methods , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/immunology , Coronavirus Nucleocapsid Proteins/immunology , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , COVID-19/virology , Humans , Limit of Detection , Point-of-Care Systems , RNA, Viral/immunology , Sensitivity and SpecificityABSTRACT
Rapid tests for SARS-COV-2 infection are important tools for pandemic control, but current rapid tests are based on proprietary designs and reagents. We report clinical validation results of an open-access lateral flow assay (OA-LFA) design using commercially available materials and reagents, along with RT-qPCR and commercially available comparators (BinaxNOWĀ® and SofiaĀ®). Adult patients with suspected COVID-19 based on clinical signs and symptoms, and with symptoms ≤7 days duration, underwent anterior nares (AN) sampling for the OA-LFA, SofiaĀ®, BinaxNOW ™, and RT-qPCR, along with nasopharyngeal (NP) RT-qPCR. Results indicate a positive predictive agreement with NP sampling as 69% (60% -78%) OA-LFA, 74% (64% - 82%) SofiaĀ®, and 82% (73% - 88%) BinaxNOW™. The implication for these results is that we provide an open-access LFA design that meets the minimum WHO target product profile for a rapid test, that virtually any diagnostic manufacturer could produce.
Subject(s)
Antigens, Viral/analysis , COVID-19/diagnosis , Immunoassay , SARS-CoV-2/metabolism , Area Under Curve , COVID-19/virology , Humans , Nasopharynx/virology , Point-of-Care Systems , RNA, Viral/analysis , RNA, Viral/metabolism , ROC Curve , Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Sensitivity and SpecificityABSTRACT
The global COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent demand for large numbers of inexpensive, accurate, rapid, point-of-care diagnostic tests. Analyte-based assays are suitably rapid and inexpensive and can be rapidly mass-produced, but for sufficiently accurate performance, they require highly optimized antibodies and assay conditions. We used an automated liquid handling system, customized to handle arrays of lateral flow (immuno)assays (LFAs) in a high-throughput screen, to identify anti-nucleocapsid antibodies that will perform optimally in an LFA. We tested 1021 anti-nucleocapsid antibody pairs as LFA capture and detection reagents with the goal of highlighting pairs that have the greatest affinity for the nucleocapsid protein of SARS-CoV-2 within the LFA format. In contrast to traditional antibody screening methods (e.g., ELISA, bio-layer interferometry), the method described here integrates real-time reaction kinetics with transport in, and immobilization directly onto, nitrocellulose. We have identified several candidate antibody pairs that are suitable for further development of an LFA for SARS-CoV-2.
ABSTRACT
Severe acute respiratory coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a novel viral pathogen and therefore a challenge to accurately diagnose infection. Asymptomatic cases are common and so it is difficult to accurately identify infected cases to support surveillance and case detection. Diagnostic test developers are working to meet the global demand for accurate and rapid diagnostic tests to support disease management. However, the focus of many of these has been on molecular diagnostic tests, and more recently serologic tests, for use in primarily high-income countries. Low- and middle-income countries typically have very limited access to molecular diagnostic testing due to fewer resources. Serologic testing is an inappropriate surrogate as the early stages of infection are not detected and misdiagnosis will promote continued transmission. Detection of infection via direct antigen testing may allow for earlier diagnosis provided such a method is sensitive. Leading SARS-CoV-2 biomarkers include spike protein, nucleocapsid protein, envelope protein, and membrane protein. This research focuses on antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein due to the number of monoclonal antibodies that have been developed for therapeutic research but also have potential diagnostic value. In this study, we assessed the performance of antibodies to the spike glycoprotein, acquired from both commercial and private groups in multiplexed liquid immunoassays, with concurrent testing via a half-strip lateral flow assays (LFA) to indicate antibodies with potential in LFA development. These processes allow for the selection of pairs of high-affinity antispike antibodies that are suitable for liquid immunoassays and LFA, some of which with sensitivity into the low picogram range with the liquid immunoassay formats with no cross-reactivity to other coronavirus S antigens. Discrepancies in optimal ranking were observed with the top pairs used in the liquid and LFA formats. These findings can support the development of SARS-CoV-2 LFAs and diagnostic tools.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Impact of novel high-quality tuberculosis (TB) tests such as Xpert MTB/RIF has been limited due to low uptake among private providers in high-burden countries including India. Our objective was to assess the impact of a demand generation intervention comprising field sales force on the uptake of high-quality TB tests by providers and its financial sustainability for private labs in the long run. METHODS: We implemented a demand generation intervention across five Indian cities between October 2014 and June 2016 and compared the change in the quantity of Xpert cartridges ordered by labs in these cities from before (February 2013-September 2014) to after intervention (October 2014-December 2015) to corresponding change in labs in comparable non-intervention cities. We embedded this difference-in-differences estimate within a financial model to calculate the internal rate of return (IRR) if the labs were to invest in an Xpert machine with or without the demand generation intervention. RESULTS: The intervention resulted in an estimated 60 additional Xpert cartridges ordered per lab-month in the intervention group, which yielded an estimated increase of 11 500 tests over the post-intervention period, at an additional cost of US$13.3-US$17.63 per test. Further, we found that investing in this intervention would increase the IRR from 4.8% to 5.5% for hospital labs but yield a negative IRR for standalone labs. CONCLUSIONS: Field sales force model can generate additional demand for Xpert at private labs, but additional strategies may be needed to ensure its financial sustainability.
Subject(s)
Diagnostic Tests, Routine , Tuberculosis , Humans , India/epidemiology , Tuberculosis/diagnosis , Tuberculosis/epidemiologyABSTRACT
There is increasing interest in future, highly-potent 'pan-TB' regimens against tuberculosis (TB), that may be equally effective in both drug-susceptible and rifampicin-resistant (RR) forms of TB. Taking the example of India, the country with the world's largest burden of TB, we show that adoption of these regimens could be: (i) epidemiologically impactful, and (ii) cost-saving to the national TB programme, even if the regimen itself is more costly than current TB treatment. Mathematical modelling suggests that deployment of a pan-TB regimen in 2022 would reduce the annual incidence of TB in 2030 by 23.9% [95% Bayesian credible intervals [CrI] 17.6-30.8%] if used to treat all TB cases, and by 2.30% [95% CrI 1.57-3.48%] if used to treat only RR-TB. Notably, with a regimen costing less than USD 359 (95% CrI 287-441), treating all diagnosed TB cases with the pan-TB regimen yielded greater cost-savings than treating just those diagnosed with RR-TB. One limitation of our approach is that it does not capture the risk of resistance to the new regimen. We discuss ways in which this risk could be mitigated using modern adherence support mechanisms, as well as drug sensitivity testing at the point of TB diagnosis, to prevent new resistant forms from becoming established. A combination of such approaches would be important for maximising the useful lifetime of any future regimen.
Subject(s)
Antitubercular Agents/therapeutic use , Drug Discovery , Models, Statistical , Tuberculosis/drug therapy , Humans , India , Rifampin/therapeutic useABSTRACT
In India, the country with the world's largest burden of tuberculosis (TB), most patients first seek care in the private healthcare sector, which is fragmented and unregulated. Ongoing initiatives are demonstrating effective approaches for engaging with this sector, and form a central part of India's recent National Strategic Plan: here we aimed to address their potential impact on TB transmission in urban settings, when taken to scale. We developed a mathematical model of TB transmission dynamics, calibrated to urban populations in Mumbai and Patna, two major cities in India where pilot interventions are currently ongoing. We found that, when taken to sufficient scale to capture 75% of patient-provider interactions, the intervention could reduce incidence by upto 21.3% (95% Bayesian credible interval (CrI) 13.0-32.5%) and 15.8% (95% CrI 7.8-28.2%) in Mumbai and Patna respectively, between 2018 and 2025. There is a stronger impact on TB mortality, with a reduction of up to 38.1% (95% CrI 20.0-55.1%) in the example of Mumbai. The incidence impact of this intervention alone may be limited by the amount of transmission that has already occurred by the time a patient first presents for care: model estimates suggest an initial patient delay of 4-5 months before first seeking care, followed by a diagnostic delay of 1-2 months before ultimately initiating TB treatment. Our results suggest that the transmission impact of such interventions could be maximised by additional measures to encourage early uptake of TB services.
Subject(s)
Models, Theoretical , Patient Acceptance of Health Care , Private Sector , Tuberculosis/prevention & control , Cities , Delayed Diagnosis , Humans , India , Tuberculosis/diagnosis , Tuberculosis/mortality , Urban PopulationABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Private providers dominate health care in India and provide most tuberculosis (TB) care. Yet efforts to engage private providers were viewed as unsustainably expensive. Three private provider engagement pilots were implemented in Patna, Mumbai and Mehsana in 2014 based on the recommendations in the National Strategic Plan for TB Control, 2012-17. These pilots sought to improve diagnosis and treatment of TB and increase case notifications by offering free drugs and diagnostics for patients who sought care among private providers, and monetary incentives for providers in one of the pilots. As these pilots demonstrated much higher levels of effectiveness than previously documented, we sought to understand program implementation costs and predict costs for their national scale-up. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a common cost structure across these three pilots comprising fixed and variable cost components. We conducted a retrospective, activity-based costing analysis using programmatic data and qualitative interviews with the respective program managers. We estimated the average recurring costs per TB case at different levels of program scale for the three pilots. We used these cost estimates to calculate the budget required for a national scale up of such pilots. The average cost per privately-notified TB case for Patna, Mumbai and Mehsana was estimated to be US$95, US$110 and US$50, respectively, in May 2016 when these pilots were estimated to cover 50%, 36% and 100% of the total private TB patients, respectively. For Patna and Mumbai pilots, the average cost per case at full scale, i.e. 100% coverage of private TB patients, was projected to be US$91 and US$101, respectively. In comparison, the national TB program's budget for 2015 averages out to $150 per notified TB case. The total annual additional budget for a national scale up of these pilots was estimated to be US$267 million. CONCLUSIONS: As India seeks to eliminate TB, extensive national engagement of private providers will be required. The cost per privately-notified TB case from these pilots is comparable to that already being spent by the public sector and to the projected cost per privately-notified TB case required to achieve national scale-up of these pilots. With additional funds expected to execute against national TB elimination commitments, the scale-up costs of these operationally viable and effective private provider engagement pilots are likely to be financially viable.