Mapping HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2017.

HIV/AIDS is a leading cause of disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence has demonstrated that there is substantial local variation in the prevalence of HIV; however, subnational variation has not been investigated at a high spatial resolution across the continent. Here we explore within-country variation at a 5 × 5-km resolution in sub-Saharan Africa by estimating the prevalence of HIV among adults (aged 15-49 years) and the corresponding number of people living with HIV from 2000 to 2017. Our analysis reveals substantial within-country variation in the prevalence of HIV throughout sub-Saharan Africa and local differences in both the direction and rate of change in HIV prevalence between 2000 and 2017, highlighting the degree to which important local differences are masked when examining trends at the country level. These fine-scale estimates of HIV prevalence across space and time provide an important tool for precisely targeting the interventions that are necessary to bringing HIV infections under control in sub-Saharan Africa.

Listening to the Voices of Health Care Workers During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Qualitative Study Providing In-Depth Insights Into Ethical and Individual Challenges.

In their daily practice, health care workers (HCWs) experience the effects of tensions between professional ethos and work realities, which can lead to ethical dilemmas. We aim to explore the ethical dilemmas that affected HCWs in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic and to understand these in the context of the German health system. Between April and December 2022, we interviewed HCWs from various levels of care and key informants responsible for decisions related to HCWs in Germany. Three themes were identified in the data analyzed from 78 participants. The first highlighted the potency of pre-existing health system problems during the COVID-19 pandemic. The second captured the ethical dilemmas that were described as having arisen due to the tension between professional ethos and structural constraints. The third included factors related to increasing or diminishing the implications of ethical dilemmas. A lack of opportunities for HCWs to participate in political and managerial decisions was suggested to result in policies that do not meet the needs of HCWs and patients. Positive interpersonal interactions were described as helpful when coping with dilemmatic decision-making situations. In order to avoid negative consequences caused by unresolved ethical dilemmas, including moral distress, among HCWs, staff shortages and decision-making in the German health system urgently need to be addressed. HCWs' working conditions regularly evoke ethical dilemmas, particularly during public health emergencies. Together with HCWs, decision-makers must develop new models for working in health care settings that are in line with HCWs' professional ethos.

Caregiver acceptance of malaria vaccination for children under 5 years of age and associated factors: cross-sectional household survey, Guinea and Sierra Leone, 2022.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is a leading cause of death and reduced life span in Guinea and Sierra Leone, where plans for rolling out the malaria vaccine for children are being made. There is little evidence about caregiver acceptance rates to guide roll-out policies. To inform future vaccine implementation planning, this analysis aimed to assess potential malaria vaccine acceptance by caregivers and identify factors associated with acceptance in Guinea and Sierra Leone. METHODS: A cross-sectional household survey using lot quality assurance sampling was conducted in three regions per country between May 2022 and August 2022. The first survey respondent in each household provided sociodemographic information. A household member responsible for childcare shared their likelihood of accepting a malaria vaccine for their children under 5 years and details about children's health. The prevalence of caregiver vaccine acceptance was calculated and associated factors were explored using multivariable logistic regression modelling calculating adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Caregivers in 76% of 702 sampled households in Guinea and 81% of 575 households in Sierra Leone were accepting of a potential vaccine for their children. In both countries, acceptance was lower in remote areas than in urban areas (Guinea: aOR 0.22 [95%CI 0.09-0.50], Sierra Leone: 0.17 [0.06-0.47]). In Guinea, acceptance was lower among caregivers living in the richest households compared to the poorest households (0.10 [0.04-0.24]), among those whose children were tested for malaria when febrile (0.54 [0.34-0.85]) and in households adopting more preventative measures against malaria (0.39 [0.25-0.62]). Better knowledge of the cause of malaria infection was associated with increased acceptance (3.46 [1.01-11.87]). In Sierra Leone, vaccine acceptance was higher among caregivers living in households where the first respondent had higher levels of education as compared to lower levels (2.32 [1.05-5.11]). CONCLUSION: In both countries, malaria vaccine acceptance seems promising for future vaccine roll-out programmes. Policy makers might consider regional differences, sociodemographic factors, and levels of knowledge about malaria for optimization of implementation strategies. Raising awareness about the benefits of comprehensive malaria control efforts, including vaccination and other preventive measures, requires attention in upcoming campaigns.

Comparative effectiveness of contact tracing interventions in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review.

Contact tracing is a non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) widely used in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Its effectiveness may depend on a number of factors including the proportion of contacts traced, delays in tracing, the mode of contact tracing (e.g. forward, backward or bidirectional contact training), the types of contacts who are traced (e.g. contacts of index cases or contacts of contacts of index cases), or the setting where contacts are traced (e.g. the household or the workplace). We performed a systematic review of the evidence regarding the comparative effectiveness of contact tracing interventions. 78 studies were included in the review, 12 observational (ten ecological studies, one retrospective cohort study and one pre-post study with two patient cohorts) and 66 mathematical modelling studies. Based on the results from six of the 12 observational studies, contact tracing can be effective at controlling COVID-19. Two high quality ecological studies showed the incremental effectiveness of adding digital contact tracing to manual contact tracing. One ecological study of intermediate quality showed that increases in contact tracing were associated with a drop in COVID-19 mortality, and a pre-post study of acceptable quality showed that prompt contact tracing of contacts of COVID-19 case clusters / symptomatic individuals led to a reduction in the reproduction number R. Within the seven observational studies exploring the effectiveness of contact tracing in the context of the implementation of other non-pharmaceutical interventions, contact tracing was found to have an effect on COVID-19 epidemic control in two studies and not in the remaining five studies. However, a limitation in many of these studies is the lack of description of the extent of implementation of contact tracing interventions. Based on the results from the mathematical modelling studies, we identified the following highly effective policies: (1) manual contact tracing with high tracing coverage and either medium-term immunity, highly efficacious isolation/quarantine and/ or physical distancing (2) hybrid manual and digital contact tracing with high app adoption with highly effective isolation/ quarantine and social distancing, (3) secondary contact tracing, (4) eliminating contact tracing delays, (5) bidirectional contact tracing, (6) contact tracing with high coverage in reopening educational institutions. We also highlighted the role of social distancing to enhance the effectiveness of some of these interventions in the context of 2020 lockdown reopening. While limited, the evidence from observational studies shows a role for manual and digital contact tracing in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic. More empirical studies accounting for the extent of contact tracing implementation are required.

Comparative effectiveness of financing models in development assistance for health and the role of results-based funding approaches: a scoping review.

Over the past three decades, there has been an unprecedented growth in development assistance for health through different financing models, ranging from donations to results-based approaches, to improve health in low- and middle-income countries. Since then, the global burden of disease has started to shift. However, it is still not entirely clear what the comparative effect of the different financing models is. To assess the effect of these financing models on various healthcare targets, we systematically reviewed the peer-reviewed and gray literature. We identified 19 studies and found that results-based financing approaches have an overall positive impact on institutional delivery rates and numbers of healthcare facility visits, though this impact varies greatly by context.Donors might be better served by providing a results-based financing scheme combining demand and supply side health-related schemes. It is essential to include rigorous monitoring and evaluation strategies when designing financing models.

SARS-CoV-2 infections in migrant populations in Germany: results from the COVID-19 snapshot monitoring survey.

OBJECTIVES: Research shows that there is an increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in migrants and ethnic minorities. However, increasing evidence indicates that socio-economic factors, such as employment, education and income, contribute to the association between migrant status and SARS-CoV-2 infection. This study aimed to examine the association between migrant status and the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Germany and to discuss potential explanations for these associations. STUDY DESIGN: This was a cross-sectional study. METHODS: Data from the German COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring online survey were analysed, and hierarchical multiple linear regression models were used to calculate the probabilities of self-reported SARS-CoV-2 infection. Predictor variables were integrated in a stepwise method as follows: (1) migrant status (defined by own or parental country of birth other than Germany); (2) gender, age and education; (3) household size; (4) household language; and (5) occupation in the health sector, including an interaction term of migrant status (yes) and occupation in the health sector (yes). RESULTS: Of 45,858 participants, 3.5% reported a SARS-CoV-2 infection, and 16% were migrants. Migrants, participants in large households, those speaking a language other than German in their household and those working in the health sector were more likely to report SARS-CoV-2 infection. The probability of reporting SARS-CoV-2 infection was 3.95 percentage points higher for migrants than non-migrants; this probability decreased when integrating further predictor variables. The strongest association of reporting a SARS-CoV-2 infection was observed for migrants working in the health sector. CONCLUSIONS: Migrants and health sector employees, and especially migrant health workers, are at an increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The results show that the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection is determined by living and working conditions rather than migrant status.

Impact of the Salud Mesoamerica Initiative on delivery care choices in Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua.

BACKGROUND: The Salud Mesoamérica Initiative (SMI) is a public-private collaboration aimed to improve maternal and child health conditions in the poorest populations of Mesoamerica through a results-based aid mechanism. We assess the impact of SMI on the staffing and availability of equipment and supplies for delivery care, the proportion of institutional deliveries, and the proportion of women who choose a facility other than the one closest to their locality of residence for delivery. METHODS: We used a quasi-experimental design, including baseline and follow-up measurements between 2013 and 2018 in intervention and comparison areas of Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Honduras. We collected information on 8754 births linked to the health facility closest to the mother's locality of residence and the facility where the delivery took place (if attended in a health facility). We fit difference-in-difference models, adjusting for women's characteristics (age, parity, education), household characteristics, exposure to health promotion interventions, health facility level, and country. RESULTS: Equipment, inputs, and staffing of facilities improved after the Initiative in both intervention and comparison areas. After adjustment for covariates, institutional delivery increased between baseline and follow-up by 3.1 percentage points (ß = 0.031, 95% CI -0.03, 0.09) more in intervention areas than in comparison areas. The proportion of women in intervention areas who chose a facility other than their closest one to attend the delivery decreased between baseline and follow-up by 13 percentage points (ß = - 0.130, 95% CI -0.23, - 0.03) more than in the comparison group. CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate that women in intervention areas of SMI are more likely to go to their closest facility to attend delivery after the Initiative has improved facilities' capacity, suggesting that results-based aid initiatives targeting poor populations, like SMI, can increase the use of facilities closest to the place of residence for delivery care services. This should be considered in the design of interventions after the COVID-19 pandemic may have changed health and social conditions.

Health care workers' experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has challenged health systems worldwide, especially the health workforce, a pillar crucial for health systems resilience. Therefore, strengthening health system resilience can be informed by analyzing health care workers' (HCWs) experiences and needs during pandemics. This review synthesizes qualitative studies published during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic to identify factors affecting HCWs' experiences and their support needs during the pandemic. This review was conducted using the Joanna Briggs Institute methodology for scoping reviews. A systematic search on PubMed was applied using controlled vocabularies. Only original studies presenting primary qualitative data were included. RESULTS: 161 papers that were published from the beginning of COVID-19 pandemic up until 28th March 2021 were included in the review. Findings were presented using the socio-ecological model as an analytical framework. At the individual level, the impact of the pandemic manifested on HCWs' well-being, daily routine, professional and personal identity. At the interpersonal level, HCWs' personal and professional relationships were identified as crucial. At the institutional level, decision-making processes, organizational aspects and availability of support emerged as important factors affecting HCWs' experiences. At community level, community morale, norms, and public knowledge were of importance. Finally, at policy level, governmental support and response measures shaped HCWs' experiences. The review identified a lack of studies which investigate other HCWs than doctors and nurses, HCWs in non-hospital settings, and HCWs in low- and lower middle income countries. DISCUSSION: This review shows that the COVID-19 pandemic has challenged HCWs, with multiple contextual factors impacting their experiences and needs. To better understand HCWs' experiences, comparative investigations are needed which analyze differences across as well as within countries, including differences at institutional, community, interpersonal and individual levels. Similarly, interventions aimed at supporting HCWs prior to, during and after pandemics need to consider HCWs' circumstances. CONCLUSIONS: Following a context-sensitive approach to empowering HCWs that accounts for the multitude of aspects which influence their experiences could contribute to building a sustainable health workforce and strengthening health systems for future pandemics.

Performance of passive case detection for malaria surveillance: results from nine countries in Mesoamerica and the Dominican Republic.

BACKGROUND: In malaria elimination settings, available metrics for malaria surveillance have been insufficient to measure the performance of passive case detection adequately. An indicator for malaria suspected cases with malaria test (MSCT) is proposed to measure the rate of testing on persons presenting to health facilities who satisfy the definition of a suspected malaria case. This metric does not rely on prior knowledge of fever prevalence, seasonality, or external denominators, and can be used to compare detection rates in suspected cases within and between countries, including across settings with different levels of transmission. METHODS: To compute the MSCT, an operational definition for suspected malaria cases was established, including clinical and epidemiological criteria. In general, suspected cases included: (1) persons with fever detected in areas with active malaria transmission; (2) persons with fever identified in areas with no active transmission and travel history to, or residence in areas with active transmission (either national or international); and (3) persons presenting with fever, chills and sweating from any area. Data was collected from 9 countries: Belize, Colombia (in areas with active transmission), Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama (September-March 2020). A sample of eligible medical records for 2018 was selected from a sample of health facilities in each country. An algorithm was constructed to assess if a malaria test was ordered or performed for cases that met the suspected case definition. RESULTS: A sample of 5873 suspected malaria cases was obtained from 239 health facilities. Except for Nicaragua and Colombia, malaria tests were requested in less than 10% of all cases. More cases were tested in areas with active transmission than areas without cases. Travel history was not systematically recorded in any country. CONCLUSIONS: A statistically comparable, replicable, and standardized metric was proposed to measure suspected malaria cases with a test (microscopy or rapid diagnostic test) that enables assessing the performance of passive case detection. Cross-country findings have important implications for malaria and infectious disease surveillance, which should be promptly addressed as countries progress towards malaria elimination. Local and easy-to-implement tools could be implemented to assess and improve passive case detection.

The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic growth in the 37 OECD member states.

We estimated the impact of a comprehensive set of non-pharmeceutical interventions on the COVID-19 epidemic growth rate across the 37 member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic and between October and December 2020. For this task, we conducted a data-driven, longitudinal analysis using a multilevel modelling approach with both maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation. We found that during the early phase of the epidemic: implementing restrictions on gatherings of more than 100 people, between 11 and 100 people, and 10 people or less was associated with a respective average reduction of 2.58%, 2.78% and 2.81% in the daily growth rate in weekly confirmed cases; requiring closing for some sectors or for all but essential workplaces with an average reduction of 1.51% and 1.78%; requiring closing of some school levels or all school levels with an average reduction of 1.12% or 1.65%; recommending mask wearing with an average reduction of 0.45%, requiring mask wearing country-wide in specific public spaces or in specific geographical areas within the country with an average reduction of 0.44%, requiring mask-wearing country-wide in all public places or all public places where social distancing is not possible with an average reduction of 0.96%; and number of tests per thousand population with an average reduction of 0.02% per unit increase. Between October and December 2020 work closing requirements and testing policy were significant predictors of the epidemic growth rate. These findings provide evidence to support policy decision-making regarding which NPIs to implement to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.

De-escalation strategies for non-pharmaceutical interventions following infectious disease outbreaks: a rapid review and a proposed dynamic de-escalation framework.

BACKGROUND: The severity of COVID-19, as well as the speed and scale of its spread, has posed a global challenge. Countries around the world have implemented stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) to control transmission and prevent health systems from being overwhelmed. These NPI have had profound negative social and economic impacts. With the timeline to worldwide vaccine roll-out being uncertain, governments need to consider to what extent they need to implement and how to de-escalate these NPI. This rapid review collates de-escalation criteria reported in the literature to provide a guide to criteria that could be used as part of de-escalation strategies globally. METHODS: We reviewed literature published since 2000 relating to pandemics and infectious disease outbreaks. The searches included Embase.com (includes Embase and Medline), LitCovid, grey literature searching, reference harvesting and citation tracking. Over 1,700 documents were reviewed, with 39 documents reporting de-escalation criteria included in the final analysis. Concepts retrieved through a thematic analysis of the included documents were interlinked to build a conceptual dynamic de-escalation framework. RESULTS: We identified 52 de-escalation criteria, the most common of which were clustered under surveillance (cited by 43 documents, 10 criteria e.g. ability to actively monitor confirmed cases and contact tracing), health system capacity (cited by 30 documents, 11 criteria, e.g. ability to treat all patients within normal capacity) and epidemiology (cited by 28 documents, 7 criteria, e.g. number or changes in case numbers). De-escalation is a gradual and bi-directional process, and resurgence of infections or emergence of variants of concerns can lead to partial or full re-escalation(s) of response and control measures in place. Hence, it is crucial to rely on a robust public health surveillance system. CONCLUSIONS: This rapid review focusing on de-escalation within the context of COVID-19 provides a conceptual framework and a guide to criteria that countries can use to formulate de-escalation plans.

[Risk communication in the containment of the COVID-19 pandemic: challenges and promising approaches]. / Risikokommunikation bei der Eindämmung der COVID-19-Pandemie: Herausforderungen und Erfolg versprechende Ansätze.

Risk communication plays a central role in public health emergencies: it must enable informed decisions, promote protective or life-sustaining behaviour, and maintain trust in public institutions. In addition, uncertainties in knowledge must be named transparently; irrational fears and rumours must be refuted. Success factors for risk communication are the participation of citizens as well as the continuous recording of risk perception and risk competence in population groups. The current COVID-19 (corona virus disease 2019) pandemic poses specific challenges for risk communication.The state of knowledge on many important aspects concerning COVID-19 was and is often uncertain or preliminary, e.g. on transmission, symptoms, long-term effects and immunity. Communication is characterised by scientific language and an array of figures and statistics, which can render the content difficult to understand. Alongside the official announcements and statements by experts, COVID-19 is widely communicated on social media, spreading misinformation and speculation; this "infodemic" can complicate risk communication.Various national and international scientific projects will help tailor risk communication on COVID-19 to target groups and thereby render it more effective. These projects include explorative studies on how people deal with COVID-19-related information; the COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring (COSMO) project, a regularly conducted online survey on risk perception and protective behaviour; and an interdisciplinary qualitative study that compares the design, implementation and effectiveness of risk communication strategies in four countries.

Assessing COVID-19 through the lens of health systems' preparedness: time for a change.

The last months have left no-one in doubt that the COVID-19 pandemic is exerting enormous pressure on health systems around the world, bringing to light the sub-optimal resilience of even those classified as high-performing. This makes us re-think the extent to which we are using the appropriate metrics in evaluating health systems which, in the case of this pandemic, might have masked how unprepared some countries were. It also makes us reflect on the strength of our solidarity as a global community, as we observe that global health protection remains, as this pandemic shows, focused on protecting high income countries from public health threats originating in low and middle income countries. To change this course, and in times like this, all nations should come together under one umbrella to respond to the pandemic by sharing intellectual, human, and material resources. In order to work towards stronger and better prepared health systems, improved and resilience-relevant metrics are needed. Further, a new model of development assistance for health, one that is focused on stronger and more resilient health systems, should be the world's top priority.

Child and adolescent injury burden in the eastern mediterranean region: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease 1990-2017.

BACKGROUND: Child and adolescent injury is one of the leading causes of child death globally with a large proportion occurring in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs). Similarly, the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries borne a heavy burden that largely impact child and adolescent safety and health in the region. We aim to assess child and adolescent injury morbidity and mortality and estimate its burden in the Eastern Mediterranean Region based on findings from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries and Risk Factors study 2017. METHODS: Data from the Global Burden of Disease GBD 2017 were used to estimate injury mortality for children aged 0-19, Years of Life Lost (YLLs), Years lived with Disability (YLDs) and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) by age and sex from 1990 to 2017. RESULTS: In 2017, an estimated 133,117 (95% UI 122,587-143,361) children died in EMR compared to 707,755 (95% UI 674401.6-738,166.6) globally. The highest rate of injury deaths was reported in Syria at 183.7 (95% UI 181.8-185.7) per 100,000 population. The leading cause of injury deaths was self-harm and interpersonal violence followed by transport injury. The primary cause of injury DALYs in EMR in 2017 was self-harm and interpersonal violence with a rate of 1272.95 (95% UI 1228.9 - 1319.2) almost 3-times the global rate. CONCLUSION: Almost 19% of global child injury related deaths occur in the EMR. Concerted efforts should be integrated to inform policies and adopt injury preventive strategies to reduce injury burden and promote child and adolescent health and well-being in EMR countries.

Health system strategies to increase HIV screening among pregnant women in Mesoamerica.

BACKGROUND: To propose health system strategies to meeting the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations on HIV screening through antenatal care (ANC) services, we assessed predictors of HIV screening, and simulated the impact of changes in these predictors on the probability of HIV screening in Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico (State of Chiapas), Nicaragua, Panama, and El Salvador. METHODS: We interviewed a representative sample of women of reproductive age from the poorest Mesoamerican areas on ANC services, including HIV screening. We used a multivariate logistic regression model to examine correlates of HIV screening. First differences in expected probabilities of HIV screening were simulated for health system correlates that were associated with HIV screening. RESULTS: Overall, 40.7% of women were screened for HIV during their last pregnancy through ANC. This rate was highest in El Salvador and lowest in Guatemala. The probability of HIV screening increased with education, household expenditure, the number of ANC visits, and the type of health care attendant of ANC visits. If all women were to be attended by a nurse, or a physician, and were to receive at least four ANC visits, the probability of HIV screening would increase by 12.5% to reach 45.8%. CONCLUSIONS: To meet WHO's recommendations for HIV screening, special attention should be given to the poorest and least educated women to ensure health equity and progress toward an HIV-free generation. In parallel, health systems should be strengthened in terms of testing and human resources to ensure that every pregnant woman gets screened for HIV. A 12.5% increase in HIV screening would require a minimum of four ANC visits and an appropriate professional attendance of these visits.

Small area estimation of under-5 mortality in Bangladesh, Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia using spatially misaligned data.

BACKGROUND: The under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) is an important metric of child health and survival. Country-level estimates of U5MR are readily available, but efforts to estimate U5MR subnationally have been limited, in part, due to spatial misalignment of available data sources (e.g., use of different administrative levels, or as a result of historical boundary changes). METHODS: We analyzed all available complete and summary birth history data in surveys and censuses in six countries (Bangladesh, Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia) at the finest geographic level available in each data source. We then developed small area estimation models capable of incorporating spatially misaligned data. These small area estimation models were applied to the birth history data in order to estimate trends in U5MR from 1980 to 2015 at the second administrative level in Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia and at the third administrative level in Bangladesh. RESULTS: We found substantial variation in U5MR in all six countries: there was more than a two-fold difference in U5MR between the area with the highest rate and the area with the lowest rate in every country. All areas in all countries experienced declines in U5MR between 1980 and 2015, but the degree varied both within and between countries. In Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, and Zambia we found areas with U5MRs in 2015 that were higher than in other parts of the same country in 1980. Comparing subnational U5MR to country-level targets for the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), we find that 12.8% of areas in Bangladesh did not meet the country-level target, although the country as whole did. A minority of areas in Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia met the country-level MDG targets while these countries as a whole did not. CONCLUSIONS: Subnational estimates of U5MR reveal significant within-country variation. These estimates could be used for identifying high-need areas and positive deviants, tracking trends in geographic inequalities, and evaluating progress towards international development targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals.

Health in Yemen: losing ground in war time.

BACKGROUND: The effect of the ongoing war in Yemen on maternal and child health (MCH) has not been comprehensively assessed. Providing a situational analysis at the governorate level is critical to assist in planning a response and allocating resources. METHODS: We used multiple national- and governorate-level data sources to provide estimates of 12 relevant MCH indicators in 2016 around child vaccination, and child and maternal nutritional status, and the change in these estimates for the period 2013-2016 based on shock variables including change in gross domestic product, burden of airstrikes per 1000 population, change in access to untreated water sources and unimproved toilets, and change in wheat flour prices. We also used findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2016 study. RESULTS: Vaccine coverage decreased for all antigens between 2013 and 2016 among children 12-23 months. The largest decrease, 36·4% for first-dose measles vaccine, was in Aden. Among children under the age of five, incidence of diarrhea was at 7·0 (5·5-8·9) episodes per person-year. The prevalence of moderate and severe child anemia ranged from 50·9% (24·9-73·1) in Sana'a City to 97·8% (94·1-99·2) in Shabwah in 2016. Prevalence of underweight among women of reproductive age ranged from 15·3% (8·1-24·6) in Sana'a city to 32·1% (24·1-39·7) in Hajjah, with a national average of 24·6% (18·7-31·5). CONCLUSIONS: The war and siege on Yemen has had a devastating impact on the health of women and children. Urgent efforts to secure food, essential medicines, antibiotics, deworming medicine, and hygiene kits, and cold chains for immunization are needed. Yemen is in dire need of clean water and proper sanitation to reduce the spread of disease, especially diarrhea.

Results-based aid with lasting effects: sustainability in the Salud Mesoamérica Initiative.

BACKGROUND: The Salud Mesoamérica Initiative is a public-private partnership aimed at reducing maternal and child morbidity and mortality for the poorest populations in Central America and the southernmost state of Mexico. Currently at the midpoint of implementation and with external funding expected to phase out by 2020, SMI's sustainability warrants evaluation. In this study, we examine if the major SMI components fit into the Dynamic Sustainability Framework to predict whether SMI benefits could be sustainable beyond the external funding and to identify threats to sustainability. METHODS: Through the 2016 Salud Mesoamérica Initiative Process Evaluation, we applied qualitative methods including document review, key informant interviews, focus group discussions, and a social network analysis to address our objective. RESULTS: SMI's design continuously evolves and aligns with national needs and objectives. Partnerships, the regional approach, and the results-based aid model create a culture that prioritizes health care. SMI's sector-wide approach and knowledge-sharing framework strengthen health systems. Evidence-based practice promotes policy dialogue and scale-up of interventions. CONCLUSION: Most SMI elements fit within the Dynamic Sustainability Framework, suggesting a likelihood of sustainability after external funding ceases, and subsequent application of lessons learned by the global community. This includes a flexible design, partnerships and a culture of prioritizing healthcare, health systems strengthening mechanisms, policy changes, and scale-ups of interventions. However, threats to sustainability, including possible transient culture of prioritizing health care, dissipation of reputational risk and financial partnerships, and personnel turnover, need to be addressed.

Trends and Patterns of Differences in Infectious Disease Mortality Among US Counties, 1980-2014.

Importance: Infectious diseases are mostly preventable but still pose a public health threat in the United States, where estimates of infectious diseases mortality are not available at the county level. Objective: To estimate age-standardized mortality rates and trends by county from 1980 to 2014 from lower respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, HIV/AIDS, meningitis, hepatitis, and tuberculosis. Design and Setting: This study used deidentified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and population counts from the US Census Bureau, NCHS, and the Human Mortality Database. Validated small-area estimation models were applied to these data to estimate county-level infectious disease mortality rates. Exposures: County of residence. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-standardized mortality rates of lower respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, HIV/AIDS, meningitis, hepatitis, and tuberculosis by county, year, and sex. Results: Between 1980 and 2014, there were 4 081 546 deaths due to infectious diseases recorded in the United States. In 2014, a total of 113 650 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 108 764-117 942) deaths or a rate of 34.10 (95% UI, 32.63-35.38) deaths per 100 000 persons were due to infectious diseases in the United States compared to a total of 72 220 (95% UI, 69 887-74 712) deaths or a rate of 41.95 (95% UI, 40.52-43.42) deaths per 100 000 persons in 1980, an overall decrease of 18.73% (95% UI, 14.95%-23.33%). Lower respiratory infections were the leading cause of infectious diseases mortality in 2014 accounting for 26.87 (95% UI, 25.79-28.05) deaths per 100 000 persons (78.80% of total infectious diseases deaths). There were substantial differences among counties in death rates from all infectious diseases. Lower respiratory infection had the largest absolute mortality inequality among counties (difference between the 10th and 90th percentile of the distribution, 24.5 deaths per 100 000 persons). However, HIV/AIDS had the highest relative mortality inequality between counties (10.0 as the ratio of mortality rate in the 90th and 10th percentile of the distribution). Mortality from meningitis and tuberculosis decreased over the study period in all US counties. However, diarrheal diseases were the only cause of infectious diseases mortality to increase from 2000 to 2014, reaching a rate of 2.41 (95% UI, 0.86-2.67) deaths per 100 000 persons, with many counties of high mortality extending from Missouri to the northeastern region of the United States. Conclusions and Relevance: Between 1980 and 2014, there were declines in mortality from most categories of infectious diseases, with large differences among US counties. However, over this time there was an increase in mortality for diarrheal diseases.

Global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors for young people's health during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: Young people's health has emerged as a neglected yet pressing issue in global development. Changing patterns of young people's health have the potential to undermine future population health as well as global economic development unless timely and effective strategies are put into place. We report the past, present, and anticipated burden of disease in young people aged 10-24 years from 1990 to 2013 using data on mortality, disability, injuries, and health risk factors. METHODS: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) includes annual assessments for 188 countries from 1990 to 2013, covering 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. We used the comparative risk assessment approach to assess how much of the burden of disease reported in a given year can be attributed to past exposure to a risk. We estimated attributable burden by comparing observed health outcomes with those that would have been observed if an alternative or counterfactual level of exposure had occurred in the past. We applied the same method to previous years to allow comparisons from 1990 to 2013. We cross-tabulated the quantiles of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by quintiles of DALYs annual increase from 1990 to 2013 to show rates of DALYs increase by burden. We used the GBD 2013 hierarchy of causes that organises 306 diseases and injuries into four levels of classification. Level one distinguishes three broad categories: first, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders; second, non-communicable diseases; and third, injuries. Level two has 21 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive categories, level three has 163 categories, and level four has 254 categories. FINDINGS: The leading causes of death in 2013 for young people aged 10-14 years were HIV/AIDS, road injuries, and drowning (25·2%), whereas transport injuries were the leading cause of death for ages 15-19 years (14·2%) and 20-24 years (15·6%). Maternal disorders were the highest cause of death for young women aged 20-24 years (17·1%) and the fourth highest for girls aged 15-19 years (11·5%) in 2013. Unsafe sex as a risk factor for DALYs increased from the 13th rank to the second for both sexes aged 15-19 years from 1990 to 2013. Alcohol misuse was the highest risk factor for DALYs (7·0% overall, 10·5% for males, and 2·7% for females) for young people aged 20-24 years, whereas drug use accounted for 2·7% (3·3% for males and 2·0% for females). The contribution of risk factors varied between and within countries. For example, for ages 20-24 years, drug use was highest in Qatar and accounted for 4·9% of DALYs, followed by 4·8% in the United Arab Emirates, whereas alcohol use was highest in Russia and accounted for 21·4%, followed by 21·0% in Belarus. Alcohol accounted for 9·0% (ranging from 4·2% in Hong Kong to 11·3% in Shandong) in China and 11·6% (ranging from 10·1% in Aguascalientes to 14·9% in Chihuahua) of DALYs in Mexico for young people aged 20-24 years. Alcohol and drug use in those aged 10-24 years had an annual rate of change of >1·0% from 1990 to 2013 and accounted for more than 3·1% of DALYs. INTERPRETATION: Our findings call for increased efforts to improve health and reduce the burden of disease and risks for diseases in later life in young people. Moreover, because of the large variations between countries in risks and burden, a global approach to improve health during this important period of life will fail unless the particularities of each country are taken into account. Finally, our results call for a strategy to overcome the financial and technical barriers to adequately capture young people's health risk factors and their determinants in health information systems. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.