Impact of severe lymphopenia on the early prediction of clinical outcome in hospitalized patients with pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the impact of an optimal and reproducible cutoff value set according to a predefined lymphopenia scale as an early predictor of in-hospital mortality and other outcomes in patients hospitalized with pneumococcal pneumonia and positive urinary antigen at admission to the emergency department. METHODS: An observational cohort study was conducted based on analysis of a prospective registry of consecutive immunocompetent adults hospitalized for pneumococcal pneumonia in two tertiary hospitals. Generalized additive models were constructed to assess the smooth relationship between in-hospital mortality and lymphopenia. RESULTS: We included 1173 patients. Lymphopenia on admission was documented in 686 (58.4%). No significant differences were observed between groups regarding the presence of comorbidities. Overall, 299 (25.5%) patients were admitted to intensive care and 90 (7.6%) required invasive mechanical ventilation. Fifty-nine (5%) patients died, among them 23 (38.9%) in the first 72 h after admission. A lymphocyte count < 500/µL, documented in 282 (24%) patients, was the predefined cutoff point that best predicted in-hospital mortality. After adjustment, these patients had higher rates of intensive care admission (OR 2.9; 95% CI 1.9-4.3), invasive mechanical ventilation (OR 2.2; 95% CI 1.2-3.9), septic shock (OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.1-2.9), treatment failure (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.2-3.5), and in-hospital mortality (OR 2.2; 95% 1.1-4.9). Severe lymphopenia outperformed PSI score in predicting early and 30-day mortality in patients classified in the higher-risk classes. CONCLUSION: Lymphocyte count < 500/µL could be used as a reproducible predictor of complicated clinical course in patients with an early diagnosis of pneumococcal pneumonia.

Impact of prior SARS-COV-2 infection and vaccination on COVID-19 hospital admission and mortality amongst nursing home residents.

BACKGROUND: Nursing home residents (NHRs) have experienced disproportionately high risk of severe outcomes due to COVID-19 infection. AIM: We investigated the impact of COVID-19 vaccinations and previous SARS-CoV-2 episodes in preventing hospitalization and mortality in NHRs. METHODS: Retrospective study of a cohort of all NHRs in our area who were alive at the start of the vaccination campaign. The first three doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine and prior COVID-19 infections were registered. The main outcomes were hospital admission and mortality during each follow up. Random effects time-varying Cox models adjusted for age, sex, and comorbidities were fitted to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) according to vaccination status. RESULTS: COVID-19 hospitalization and death rates for unvaccinated NHRs were respectively 2.39 and 1.42 per 10,000 person-days, falling after administration of the second dose (0.37 and 0.34) and rising with the third dose (1.08 and 0.8). Rates were much lower amongst people who had previously had COVID-19. Adjusted HRs indicated a significant decrease in hospital admission amongst those with a two- and three-dose status; those who had had a previous COVID-19 infection had even lower hospital admission rates. Death rates decreased as NHRs received two and three doses, and the probability of death was much lower among those who had previously had the infection. CONCLUSIONS: The effectiveness of current vaccines against severe COVID-19 disease in NHRs remains high and SARS-CoV-2 episodes prior to vaccination entail a major reduction in hospitalization and mortality rates. The protection conferred by vaccines appears to decline in the following months. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04463706.

COVID-19 in young and middle-aged adults: predictors of poor outcome and clinical differences.

INTRODUCTION: Young and middle-aged adults are the largest group of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 and some of them develop severe disease. OBJECTIVE: To investigate clinical manifestations in adults aged 18-65 years hospitalized for COVID-19 and identify predictors of poor outcome. Secondary objectives: to explore differences compared to the disease in elderly patients and the suitability of the commonly used community-acquired pneumonia prognostic scales in younger populations. METHODS: Multicenter prospective registry of consecutive patients hospitalized for COVID-19 pneumonia aged 18-65 years between March and May 2020. We considered a composite outcome of "poor outcome" including intensive care unit admission and/or use of noninvasive ventilation, continuous positive airway pressure or high flow nasal cannula oxygen and/or death. RESULTS: We identified 513 patients < 65 years of age, from a cohort of 993 patients. 102 had poor outcomes (19.8%) and 3.9% died. 78% and 55% of patients with poor outcomes were classified as low risk based on CURB and PSI scores, respectively. A multivariate Cox regression model identified six independent factors associated with poor outcome: heart disease, absence of chest pain or anosmia, low oxygen saturation, high LDH and lymphocyte count < 800/mL. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 in younger patients carries significant morbidity and differs in some respects from this disease in the elderly. Baseline heart disease is a relevant risk factor, while anosmia and pleuritic pain are associated to better prognosis. Hypoxemia, LDH and lymphocyte count are predictors of poor outcome. We consider that CURB and PSI scores are not suitable criteria for deciding admission in this population.

Initial Inflammatory Profile in Community-acquired Pneumonia Depends on Time since Onset of Symptoms.

RATIONALE: Assessment of the inflammatory response can help the decision-making process when diagnosing community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), but there is a lack of information about the influence of time since onset of symptoms. OBJECTIVES: We studied the impact of the number of days since onset of symptoms on inflammatory cytokines and biomarker concentrations at CAP diagnosis in hospitalized patients. METHODS: We performed a secondary analysis in two prospective cohorts including 541 patients in the derivation cohort and 422 in the validation cohort. The time since onset of symptoms was self-reported, and patients were classified as early presenters (<3 d) and nonearly presenters. Biomarkers (C-reactive protein [CRP] and procalcitonin [PCT] in both cohorts) and cytokines in the derivation cohort (IL-1, - 6, -8, -10, and tumor necrosis factor-α) were measured within 24 hours of hospital admission. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: In early presenters, CRP was significantly lower, whereas PCT, IL-6, and IL-8 were higher. Nonearly presenters showed significantly lower PCT, IL-6, and IL-8 levels. In the validation cohort, CRP and PCT exhibited identical patterns: CRP levels were 36.4% greater in patients with 3 or more days since onset of symptoms than in those with less than 3 days since symptom onset in the derivation cohort and 38.2% in the validation cohort. PCT levels were 40% lower in patients with 3 or more days since onset of symptoms in the derivation cohort and 56% in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Time since symptom onset modifies the systemic inflammatory profile at CAP diagnosis. This information has relevant clinical implications for management, and it should be taken into account in the design of future clinical trials.

Age-related differences in management and outcomes in hospitalized healthy and well-functioning bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia patients: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Limited data are available regarding fit and healthy patients with pneumonia at different ages. We evaluated the association of age with clinical presentation, serotype and outcomes among healthy and well-functioning patients hospitalized for bacteremic pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia. METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort study of consecutive healthy and well-functioning patients hospitalized for this type of pneumonia. Patients were stratified into younger (18 to 64 years) and older (≥65 years) groups. RESULTS: During the study period, 399 consecutive patients were hospitalized with bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia. We included 203 (50.8%) patients who were healthy and well-functioning patients, of whom 71 (35%) were classified as older. No differences were found in antibiotic treatment, treatment failure rate, antibiotic resistance, or serotype, except for serotype 7F that was less common in older patients. In the adjusted multivariate analysis, the older patients had higher 30-day mortality (OR 6.83; 95% CI 1.22-38.22; P = 0.028), but were less likely to be admitted to the ICU (OR 0.14; 95% CI 0.05-0.39; P < 0.001) and had shorter hospital stays (OR 0.71; 95% CI 0.54-0.94; P = 0.017). CONCLUSIONS: Healthy and well-functioning older patients have higher mortality than younger patients, but nevertheless, ICU admission was less likely and hospital stays were shorter. These results suggest that the aging process is a determinant of mortality, beyond the functional status of patients with bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia.

Streptococcus pneumoniae antigen in urine: diagnostic usefulness and impact on outcome of bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia in a large series of adult patients.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Urinary pneumococcal antigen detection provides good results in the diagnosis of pneumococcal pneumonia but has rarely been used in bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia and it is not known whether it is associated with outcome in this type of pneumonia. Our objectives were to assess the usefulness of an immunochromatographic technique for detecting the pneumococcal antigen in urine in a large prospective study of patients with bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia and explore any potential association with outcomes. METHODS: This study, carried out over 8 years, included all adult immunocompetent patients admitted for bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia. An immunochromatographic test for the Streptococcus pneumoniae antigen in urine was performed in the first 24 h. The sensitivity of test was assessed and patients were divided into two groups according to test results to explore differences on admission and during the course of the illness using logistic regression models. RESULTS: Of the 350 patients with bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia included, 261 (74.6%) were positive for the antigen. Patient characteristics were very similar on admission and differences in severity (Pneumonia Severity Index) were not statistically significant. In the adjusted analysis, antigen-positive patients had a higher risk of intensive care unit admission, treatment failure and adverse outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The sensitivity of the immunochromatographic urinary antigen test was 74.6% and positive results were associated with poorer clinical outcome. We therefore recommend systematic use of this test when pneumonia is diagnosed in the emergency department.

Pneumococcal pneumonia: differences according to blood culture results.

BACKGROUND: Bacteremia by Streptococcus pneumoniae has been traditionally associated with poor outcomes in patients with pneumonia; however, data on its impact on outcomes are limited and are sometimes contradictory. METHODS: We performed a prospective study in two hospitals in northern Spain in which cases diagnosed with pneumococcal pneumonia were selected from a cohort of hospitalized patients with pneumonia between January 2001 and July 2009. We compared patients with pneumococcal bacteremic pneumonia with those with pneumococcal non-bacteremic pneumonia. RESULTS: We compared 492 patients with negative blood culture and 399 with positive culture results. Host related factors were very similar in both groups. Severity of illness on admission measured by CURB-65 score was similar in both groups. Adjusted analysis showed a greater likelihood of septic shock during in-hospital course among patients with pneumococcal bacteremia (OR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.2-3.5; P=0.006). Likewise, patients with positive blood culture had greater in-hospital mortality (OR 2.1; 95% CI, 1.1- -3.9; P=0.02), 15-day mortality (OR 3.6; 95% CI, 1.7-7.4; P=0.0006), and 30-day mortality (OR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.5-5; P=0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Although host related factors and severity on admission were very similar in the two groups, bacteremic patients had worse in-hospital course and outcomes. Bacteraemia in pneumococcal pneumonia is of prognostic significance.

Basic host response parameters to classify mortality risk in COVID-19 and community-acquired pneumonia.

Improved phenotyping in pneumonia is necessary to strengthen risk assessment. Via a feasible and multidimensional approach with basic parameters, we aimed to evaluate the effect of host response at admission on severity stratification in COVID-19 and community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Three COVID-19 and one CAP multicenter cohorts including hospitalized patients were recruited. Three easily available variables reflecting different pathophysiologic mechanisms-immune, inflammation, and respiratory-were selected (absolute lymphocyte count [ALC], C-reactive protein [CRP] and, SpO2/FiO2). In-hospital mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission were analyzed as outcomes. A multivariable, penalized maximum likelihood logistic regression was performed with ALC (< 724 lymphocytes/mm3), CRP (> 60 mg/L), and, SpO2/FiO2 (< 450). A total of 1452, 1222 and 462 patients were included in the three COVID-19 and 1292 in the CAP cohort for the analysis. Mortality ranged between 4 and 32% (0 to 3 abnormal biomarkers) and 0-9% in SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia and CAP, respectively. In the first COVID-19 cohort, adjusted for age and sex, we observed an increased odds ratio for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 with elevated biomarkers altered (OR 1.8, 3, and 6.3 with 1, 2, and 3 abnormal biomarkers, respectively). The model had an AUROC of 0.83. Comparable findings were found for ICU admission, with an AUROC of 0.76. These results were confirmed in the other COVID-19 cohorts Similar OR trends were reported in the CAP cohort; however, results were not statistically significant. Assessing the host response via accessible biomarkers is a simple and rapidly applicable approach for pneumonia.

Clinical prediction rules for adverse evolution in patients with COVID-19 by the Omicron variant.

OBJECTIVE: We identify factors related to SARS-CoV-2 infection linked to hospitalization, ICU admission, and mortality and develop clinical prediction rules. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of 380,081 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection from March 1, 2020 to January 9, 2022, including a subsample of 46,402 patients who attended Emergency Departments (EDs) having data on vital signs. For derivation and external validation of the prediction rule, two different periods were considered: before and after emergence of the Omicron variant, respectively. Data collected included sociodemographic data, COVID-19 vaccination status, baseline comorbidities and treatments, other background data and vital signs at triage at EDs. The predictive models for the EDs and the whole samples were developed using multivariate logistic regression models using Lasso penalization. RESULTS: In the multivariable models, common predictive factors of death among EDs patients were greater age; being male; having no vaccination, dementia; heart failure; liver and kidney disease; hemiplegia or paraplegia; coagulopathy; interstitial pulmonary disease; malignant tumors; use chronic systemic use of steroids, higher temperature, low O2 saturation and altered blood pressure-heart rate. The predictors of an adverse evolution were the same, with the exception of liver disease and the inclusion of cystic fibrosis. Similar predictors were found to be related to hospital admission, including liver disease, arterial hypertension, and basal prescription of immunosuppressants. Similarly, models for the whole sample, without vital signs, are presented. CONCLUSIONS: We propose risk scales, based on basic information, easily-calculable, high-predictive that also function with the current Omicron variant and may help manage such patients in primary, emergency, and hospital care.

Is the long-term mortality similar in COVID-19 and community-acquired pneumonia?

Introduction: There are no data on the association of type of pneumonia and long-term mortality by the type of pneumonia (COVID-19 or community-acquired pneumonia [CAP]) on long-term mortality after an adjustment for potential confounding variables. We aimed to assess the type of pneumonia and risk factors for long-term mortality in patients who were hospitalized in conventional ward and later discharged. Methods: Retrospective analysis of two prospective and multicentre cohorts of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and CAP. The main outcome under study was 1-year mortality in hospitalized patients in conventional ward and later discharged. We adjusted a Bayesian logistic regression model to assess associations between the type of pneumonia and 1-year mortality controlling for confounders. Results: The study included a total of 1,693 and 2,374 discharged patients in the COVID-19 and CAP cohorts, respectively. Of these, 1,525 (90.1%) and 2,249 (95%) patients underwent analysis. Until 1-year follow-up, 69 (4.5%) and 148 (6.6%) patients from the COVID-19 and CAP cohorts, respectively, died (p = 0.008). However, the Bayesian model showed a low probability of effect (PE) of finding relevant differences in long-term mortality between CAP and COVID-19 (odds ratio 1.127, 95% credibility interval 0.862-1.591; PE = 0.774). Conclusion: COVID-19 and CAP have similar long-term mortality after adjusting for potential confounders.

Etiology of community-acquired pneumonia in a population-based study: link between etiology and patients characteristics, process-of-care, clinical evolution and outcomes.

BACKGROUND: The etiologic profile of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) for each age group could be similar among inpatients and outpatients. This fact brings up the link between etiology of CAP and its clinical evolution and outcome. Furthermore, the majority of pneumonia etiologic studies are based on hospitalized patients, whereas there have been no recent population-based studies encompassing both inpatients and outpatients. METHODS: To evaluate the etiology of CAP, and the relationship among the different pathogens of CAP to patients characteristics, process-of-care, clinical evolution and outcomes, a prospective population-based study was conducted in Spain from April 1, 2006, to June 30, 2007. Patients (age >18) with CAP were identified through the family physicians and the hospital area. RESULTS: A total of 700 patients with etiologic evaluation were included: 276 hospitalized and 424 ambulatory patients. We were able to define the aetiology of pneumonia in 55.7% (390/700). The most frequently isolated organism was S. pneumoniae (170/390, 43.6%), followed by C. burnetti (72/390, 18.5%), M. pneumoniae (62/390, 15.9%), virus as a group (56/390, 14.4%), Chlamydia species (39/390, 106%), and L. pneumophila (17/390, 4.4%). The atypical pathogens and the S. pneumoniae are present in pneumonias of a wide spectrum of severity and age. Patients infected by conventional bacteria were elderly, had a greater hospitalization rate, and higher mortality within 30 days. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides information about the etiology of CAP in the general population. The microbiology of CAP remains stable: infections by conventional bacteria result in higher severity, and the S. pneumoniae remains the most important pathogen. However, atypical pathogens could also infect patients in a wide spectrum of severity and age.

Early Recognition of Low-Risk SARS-CoV-2 Pneumonia: A Model Validated With Initial Data and Infectious Diseases Society of America/American Thoracic Society Minor Criteria.

BACKGROUND: A shortage of beds in ICUs and conventional wards during the COVID-19 pandemic led to a collapse of health care resources. RESEARCH QUESTION: Can admission data and minor criteria by the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) and the American Thoracic Society (ATS) help identify patients with low-risk SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This multicenter cohort study included 1,274 patients in a derivation cohort and 830 (first wave) and 754 (second wave) patients in two validation cohorts. A multinomial regression analysis was performed on the derivation cohort to compare the following patients: those admitted to the ward (assessed as low risk); those admitted to the ICU directly; those transferred to the ICU after general ward admission; and those who died. A regression analysis identified independent factors for low-risk pneumonia. The model was subsequently validated. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, similarities existed among those either directly admitted or transferred to the ICU and those who died. These patients could, therefore, be merged into one group. Five independently associated factors were identified as being predictors of low risk (not dying and/or requiring ICU admission) (ORs, with 95% CIs): peripheral blood oxygen saturation/Fio2 > 450 (0.233; 0.149-0.364); < 3 IDSA/ATS minor criteria (0.231; 0.146-0.365); lymphocyte count > 723 cells/mL (0.539; 0.360-0.806); urea level < 40 mg/dL (0.651; 0.426-0.996); and C-reactive protein level < 60 mg/L (0.454; 0.285-0.724). The areas under the curve were 0.802 (0.769-0.835) in the derivation cohort, and 0.779 (0.742-0.816) and 0.801 (0.757-0.845) for the validation cohorts (first and second waves, respectively). INTERPRETATION: Initial biochemical findings and the application of < 3 IDSA/ATS minor criteria make early identification of low-risk SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia (approximately 80% of hospitalized patients) feasible. This scenario could facilitate and streamline health care resource allocation for patients with COVID-19.

Comparison of the prognostic performance of the CURB-65 and a modified version of the pneumonia severity index designed to identify high-risk patients using the International Community-Acquired Pneumonia Collaboration Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Although the PSI and CURB-65 represent well-validated prediction rules for pneumonia prognosis, PSI was designed to identify patients at low risk and CURB- 65 patients at high risk of mortality. We compared the prognostic performance of a modified version of the PSI designed to identify high-risk patients (i.e., PSI-HR) to CURB-65 in predicting short-term mortality. METHODS: Using data from 6 pneumonia cohorts, we designed PSI-HR as a 6-class prediction rule using the original prognostic weights of all PSI variables and modifying the risk score thresholds to define risk classes. We calculated the proportion of low-risk and high-risk patients using CURB-65 and PSI-HR and 30-day mortality in these subgroups. We compared the rules' sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for mortality at all risk class thresholds and assessed discriminatory power using areas under their receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs). RESULTS: Among 13,874 patients with pneumonia, 1,036 (7.5%) died. For PSI-HR versus CURB-65, aggregate mortality was lower in low-risk patients (1.6% vs. 2.2%, p = 0.005) and higher in high-risk patients (36.5% vs. 32.2%, p = 0.27). PSI-HR had higher sensitivities than CURB-65 at all thresholds; PSI-HR also had higher specificities at the 3 lowest thresholds and specificities within 0.5% points of CURB-65 at the 2 highest thresholds. The AUROC was larger for PSI-HR than CURB- 65 (0.82 vs. 0.77, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: PSI-HR demonstrated superior prognostic accuracy to CURB-65 at the lower end of the severity spectrum and identified high-risk patients with nonsignificant higher short-term mortality at the higher end.

New-onset atrial fibrillation in patients with pneumococcal pneumonia. Impact of timing and duration on short- and medium-term mortality.

OBJETIVES: To assess the incidence, related factors, timing and duration of new- onset atrial fibrillation in a cohort of consecutive patients diagnosed with pneumococcal pneumonia. METHODS: Observational study including all immunocompetent adults hospitalized for pneumococcal pneumonia. Patients were classified by time (atrial fibrillation recognized on emergency room arrival or developed during hospitalization) and duration (paroxysmal or persistent). Patients were followed-up for 6 months after discharge. RESULTS: We included 1092 patients, of whom 109 (9.9%) had new-onset atrial fibrillation. An early event was documented in 87 (79.8%) cases. Arrhythmia was classified as paroxysmal in 78 patients. Older age, heavy drinking, respiratory rate ≥ 30/minute, leukopenia, severe inflammation and bacteremia were independent risk factors for developing new-onset atrial fibrillation on admission. Overall, 48 (4.4%) patients died during hospitalization, the rate being higher in those patients who developed new-onset arrhythmia (17.9% vs 2.9% p<0.001). Among patients with events recognized at admission, in-hospital mortality was higher in those with persistent arrhythmia (34.8% vs 6.3%, p = 0.002) and 6-month survival was better among those who developed paroxysmal event. CONCLUSIONS: The development of new-onset atrial fibrillation was associated with pneumonia severity, and higher in-hospital mortality. Bacteremia and severe systemic inflammation were factors associated with its development.

Non-bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia: general characteristics and early predictive factors for poor outcome.

Purpose: Nowadays, most cases of pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia (PCAP) are diagnosed by positive urinary antigen. Our aims were to analyse process of care in patients hospitalised with non-bacteremic PCAP (NB-PCAP) and identify factors associated with poor outcome (PO) in this population.Methods: We conducted a prospective study, including patients hospitalised for NB-PCAP (positive urinary antigen and negative blood culture) over a 15 year period. We performed multivariate analysis of predisposing factors for PO, defined as need for mechanical ventilation and/or shock and/or in-hospital death.Results: Of the 638 patients included, 4.1% died in hospital and 12.8% had PO. Host-related factors were similar in patients with and without PO, but patients with PO had higher illness severity on admission. Adjusted analysis revealed the following independent factors associated with PO: being a nursing home resident (OR: 6.156; 95% CI: 1.827-20.750; p = .003), respiratory rate ≥30 breaths/min (OR: 3.030; 95% CI: 1.554-5.910; p = .001), systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg (OR: 4.789; 95% CI: 1.967-11.660; p = .001), diastolic blood pressure <60 mmHg (OR: 2.820; 95% CI: 1.329-5.986; p = .007), pulse rate ≥125 beats/min (OR: 3.476; 95% CI: 1.607-7.518; p = .002), pH <7.35 (OR: 9.323; 95% CI: 3.680-23.622; p < .001), leukocytes <4000/µL (OR: 10.007; 95% CI: 2.960-33.835; p < .001), and severe inflammation (OR: 2.364; 95% CI 1.234-4.526; p = .009). The area under the curve for predicting PO was 0.890 (95% CI: 0.851-0.929).Conclusions: Since patients with PO seem different and had worse in-hospital course, we identified eight independent risk factors for PO measurable on admission.

Factors influencing long-term survival after hospitalization with pneumococcal pneumonia.

OBJECTIVE: To assess survival and identify predictors of survival more than 30-days after discharge in a cohort of consecutive patients diagnosed with pneumococcal pneumonia. METHODS: Observational study including all consecutive immunocompetent adult patients surviving more than 30-days after hospitalization. The bacteriological diagnosis was based on the results of urinary antigen testing and/or blood culture. Life expectancy was calculated for each patient considering their sex, age and date of discharge. RESULTS: We included 1114 patients that survived more than 30- days after discharge. Of them, 431 (38.6%) died during follow-up (median follow-up of 6.7 years). Age, history of cancer, liver disease, chronic renal disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cerebrovascular disease, atrial arrhythmia and coronary disease, red cell distribution width (RDW) > 15%, positive blood culture, hematocrit < 30% and living in a nursing home were independent risk factors for reduced long-term survival after hospital discharge. Cumulative 1-, 3- and 5-year survival rates were 93.9%, 85.3% and 76%, respectively. Among non-survivors, 361 (83.8%) died earlier than expected given their life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS: Survival after hospital discharge is mainly associated with age and comorbidities. The findings of bacteremia and elevated RDW on admission could help identify patients at high risk of long-term mortality.

Evolution of serotypes in bacteremic pneumococcal adult pneumonia in the period 2001-2014, after introduction of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in bizkaia (spain).

The introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV7 and PCV13) in children has led to a change in the pattern of pneumococcal serotypes causing pneumococcal disease in adults. The aim of this study is to analyze the distribution of pneumococcal serotypes in adults with bacteremic pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia (BPP) after the introduction of PCVs in childhood, and the impact of age and comorbidity on this distribution. We conducted an observational study of all adults hospitalized with BPP between 2001 and 2014, in two tertiary hospitals. Overall, we identified 451 cases of BPP (2001-2005: 194, 2006-2010: 134, 2011-2014: 123). The rate of appearance of new cases decreased over the study period. In 70% of the cases, the serotypes found were among those included in PCV13. The most prevalent serotypes were 3 (23.1%), 7F (14.6%), 19A (8.4%) and 1 (7.5%). There was a significant trend to decrease in the percentage of BPP cases due to PCV7 from period 2001-2005 to 2011-2014 (p = 0.0166) and a significant trend to increase in the six serotypes added to form PCV 13 (p = 0.0003). Serotype 3 was the most frequent in patients who developed complications during hospitalization. We did not detect a significant increase in cases caused by non-PCV13 serotypes. The most frequent non-PCV13 serotype was 22F. In conclusion, a significant proportion of adults continue to develop BPP with vaccine serotypes despite infant pneumococcal vaccination. There is a need for further strategies to reduce the current burden of this disease on adults.

Pneumonia: criteria for patient instability on hospital discharge.

BACKGROUND: A study was undertaken to identify and weigh at the time of hospital discharge simple clinical variables that could predict short-term outcomes in patients with pneumonia. METHODS: In a prospective observational cohort study of 870 patients discharged alive after hospitalization for pneumonia, we collected oxygenation and vital signs on discharge and assessed mortality and readmission within 30 days. From the beta-parameter obtained in a multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression model, a score was assigned to each predictive variable. The effects of instability at discharge on outcomes within 30 days thereafter were examined by adjusted models with use of the pneumonia severity index at hospital admission, the length of stay, the Charlson comorbidity index, or the preillness functional status. RESULTS: Four variables related to a 30-day mortality rate from all causes were identified in the multivariate model; these included one major criterion (temperature >37.5 degrees C) and three minor criteria (systolic BP < 90 mm Hg or diastolic BP < 60 mm Hg, respiratory rate > 24 breaths/min, and oxygen saturation < 90%). The developed score remained significantly associated with a higher risk-adjusted rate of death. Patients with a score > or = 2 (one major criterion or two minor criteria) had a sixfold-greater risk-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of death (HR, 5.8; 95% confidence interval, 2.5 to 13.1). CONCLUSIONS: Four criteria of instability on discharge seem to be related to the mortality rate after discharge, but each of the factors must be weighed differently. The resulting score is a simple alternative that can be used by clinicians in the discharge process.

Predicting 1-year mortality after hospitalization for community-acquired pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a major public health problem with high short- and long-term mortality. The main aim of this study was to develop and validate a specific prognostic index for one-year mortality in patients admitted for CAP. METHODS: This was an observational, prospective study of adults aged ≥18 years admitted to Galdakao-Usansolo Hospital (Bizkaia, Spain) from January 2001 to July 2009 with a diagnosis of CAP surviving the first 15 days. The entire cohort was divided into two parts, in order to develop a one-year mortality predictive model in the derivation cohort, before validation using the second cohort. RESULTS: A total of 2351 patients were included and divided into a derivation and a validation cohort. After deaths within 15 days were excluded, one-year mortality was 10.63%. A predictive model was created in order to predict one-year mortality, with a weighted score that included: aged over 80 years (4 points), congestive heart failure (2 points), dementia (6 points), respiratory rate ≥30 breaths per minute (2 points) and blood urea nitrogen >30 mg/dL (3 points) as predictors of higher risk with C-index of 0.76. This new model showed better predictive ability than current risk scores, PSI, CURB65 and SCAP with C-index of 0.73, 0.69 and 0.70, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: An easy-to-use score, called the one-year CAPSI, may be useful for identifying patients with a high probability of dying after an episode of CAP.