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1.
Nature ; 623(7985): 132-138, 2023 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37853126

ABSTRACT

Hospital-based transmission had a dominant role in Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) epidemics1,2, but large-scale studies of its role in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are lacking. Such transmission risks spreading the virus to the most vulnerable individuals and can have wider-scale impacts through hospital-community interactions. Using data from acute hospitals in England, we quantify within-hospital transmission, evaluate likely pathways of spread and factors associated with heightened transmission risk, and explore the wider dynamical consequences. We estimate that between June 2020 and March 2021 between 95,000 and 167,000 inpatients acquired SARS-CoV-2 in hospitals (1% to 2% of all hospital admissions in this period). Analysis of time series data provided evidence that patients who themselves acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection in hospital were the main sources of transmission to other patients. Increased transmission to inpatients was associated with hospitals having fewer single rooms and lower heated volume per bed. Moreover, we show that reducing hospital transmission could substantially enhance the efficiency of punctuated lockdown measures in suppressing community transmission. These findings reveal the previously unrecognized scale of hospital transmission, have direct implications for targeting of hospital control measures and highlight the need to design hospitals better equipped to limit the transmission of future high-consequence pathogens.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Cross Infection , Disease Transmission, Infectious , Inpatients , Pandemics , Humans , Communicable Disease Control , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/transmission , Cross Infection/epidemiology , Cross Infection/prevention & control , Cross Infection/transmission , Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention & control , Disease Transmission, Infectious/statistics & numerical data , England/epidemiology , Hospitals , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Quarantine/statistics & numerical data , SARS-CoV-2
2.
BMC Infect Dis ; 24(1): 64, 2024 Jan 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38191324

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 testing of hospitalised patients began in April-2020, with twice weekly healthcare worker (HCW) testing introduced in November-2020. Guidance recommending asymptomatic testing was withdrawn in August-2022. Assessing the impact of this decision from data alone is challenging due to concurrent changes in infection prevention and control practices, community transmission rates, and a reduction in ascertainment rate from reduced testing. Computational modelling is an effective tool for estimating the impact of this change. METHODS: Using a computational model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in an English hospital we estimate the effectiveness of several asymptomatic testing strategies, namely; (1) Symptomatic testing of patients and HCWs, (2) testing of all patients on admission with/without repeat testing on days 3 and 5-7, and (3) symptomatic testing plus twice weekly asymptomatic HCW testing with 70% compliance. We estimate the number of patient and HCW infections, HCW absences, number of tests, and tests per case averted or absence avoided, with differing community prevalence rates over a 12-week period. RESULTS: Testing asymptomatic patients on admission reduces the rate of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection by 8.1-21.5%. Additional testing at days 3 and 5-7 post admission does not significantly reduce infection rates. Twice weekly asymptomatic HCW testing can reduce the proportion of HCWs infected by 1.0-4.4% and monthly absences by 0.4-0.8%. Testing asymptomatic patients repeatedly requires up to 5.5 million patient tests over the period, and twice weekly asymptomatic HCW testing increases the total tests to almost 30 million. The most efficient patient testing strategy (in terms of tests required to prevent a single patient infection) was testing asymptomatic patients on admission across all prevalence levels. The least efficient was repeated testing of patients with twice weekly asymptomatic HCW testing in a low prevalence scenario, and in all other prevalence levels symptomatic patient testing with regular HCW testing was least efficient. CONCLUSIONS: Testing patients on admission can reduce the rate of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection but there is little benefit of additional post-admission testing. Asymptomatic HCW testing has little incremental benefit for reducing patient cases at low prevalence but has a potential role at higher prevalence or with low community transmission. A full health-economic evaluation is required to determine the cost-effectiveness of these strategies.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Cross Infection , Humans , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19 Testing , SARS-CoV-2 , State Medicine , Health Personnel , Hospitals , Cross Infection/diagnosis , Cross Infection/prevention & control
3.
BMC Infect Dis ; 24(1): 475, 2024 May 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38714946

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Prior to September 2021, 55,000-90,000 hospital inpatients in England were identified as having a potentially nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection. This includes cases that were likely missed due to pauci- or asymptomatic infection. Further, high numbers of healthcare workers (HCWs) are thought to have been infected, and there is evidence that some of these cases may also have been nosocomially linked, with both HCW to HCW and patient to HCW transmission being reported. From the start of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic interventions in hospitals such as testing patients on admission and universal mask wearing were introduced to stop spread within and between patient and HCW populations, the effectiveness of which are largely unknown. MATERIALS/METHODS: Using an individual-based model of within-hospital transmission, we estimated the contribution of individual interventions (together and in combination) to the effectiveness of the overall package of interventions implemented in English hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic. A panel of experts in infection prevention and control informed intervention choice and helped ensure the model reflected implementation in practice. Model parameters and associated uncertainty were derived using national and local data, literature review and formal elicitation of expert opinion. We simulated scenarios to explore how many nosocomial infections might have been seen in patients and HCWs if interventions had not been implemented. We simulated the time period from March-2020 to July-2022 encompassing different strains and multiple doses of vaccination. RESULTS: Modelling results suggest that in a scenario without inpatient testing, infection prevention and control measures, and reductions in occupancy and visitors, the number of patients developing a nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection could have been twice as high over the course of the pandemic, and over 600,000 HCWs could have been infected in the first wave alone. Isolation of symptomatic HCWs and universal masking by HCWs were the most effective interventions for preventing infections in both patient and HCW populations. Model findings suggest that collectively the interventions introduced over the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in England averted 400,000 (240,000 - 500,000) infections in inpatients and 410,000 (370,000 - 450,000) HCW infections. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions to reduce the spread of nosocomial infections have varying impact, but the package of interventions implemented in England significantly reduced nosocomial transmission to both patients and HCWs over the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Cross Infection , Health Personnel , SARS-CoV-2 , Humans , COVID-19/transmission , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/epidemiology , Cross Infection/prevention & control , Cross Infection/transmission , England/epidemiology , Computer Simulation , Infection Control/methods , State Medicine , Masks/statistics & numerical data
4.
BMC Infect Dis ; 23(1): 900, 2023 Dec 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38129789

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that during the COVID pandemic, a number of patient and HCW infections were nosocomial. Various measures were put in place to try to reduce these infections including developing asymptomatic PCR (polymerase chain reaction) testing schemes for healthcare workers. Regularly testing all healthcare workers requires many tests while reducing this number by only testing some healthcare workers can result in undetected cases. An efficient way to test as many individuals as possible with a limited testing capacity is to consider pooling multiple samples to be analysed with a single test (known as pooled testing). METHODS: Two different pooled testing schemes for the asymptomatic testing are evaluated using an individual-based model representing the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a 'typical' English hospital. We adapt the modelling to reflect two scenarios: a) a retrospective look at earlier SARS-CoV-2 variants under lockdown or social restrictions, and b) transitioning back to 'normal life' without lockdown and with the omicron variant. The two pooled testing schemes analysed differ in the population that is eligible for testing. In the 'ward' testing scheme only healthcare workers who work on a single ward are eligible and in the 'full' testing scheme all healthcare workers are eligible including those that move across wards. Both pooled schemes are compared against the baseline scheme which tests only symptomatic healthcare workers. RESULTS: Including a pooled asymptomatic testing scheme is found to have a modest (albeit statistically significant) effect, reducing the total number of nosocomial healthcare worker infections by about 2[Formula: see text] in both the lockdown and non-lockdown setting. However, this reduction must be balanced with the increase in cost and healthcare worker isolations. Both ward and full testing reduce HCW infections similarly but the cost for ward testing is much less. We also consider the use of lateral flow devices (LFDs) for follow-up testing. Considering LFDs reduces cost and time but LFDs have a different error profile to PCR tests. CONCLUSIONS: Whether a PCR-only or PCR and LFD ward testing scheme is chosen depends on the metrics of most interest to policy makers, the virus prevalence and whether there is a lockdown.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Cross Infection , Humans , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Retrospective Studies , Hospitals , Health Personnel , Cross Infection/diagnosis , Cross Infection/epidemiology , Cross Infection/prevention & control
5.
BMC Infect Dis ; 22(1): 324, 2022 Apr 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35365070

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 outbreaks still occur in English care homes despite the interventions in place. METHODS: We developed a stochastic compartmental model to simulate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 within an English care home. We quantified the outbreak risk with baseline non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) already in place, the role of community prevalence in driving outbreaks, and the relative contribution of all importation routes into a fully susceptible care home. We also considered the potential impact of additional control measures in care homes with and without immunity, namely: increasing staff and resident testing frequency, using lateral flow antigen testing (LFD) tests instead of polymerase chain reaction (PCR), enhancing infection prevention and control (IPC), increasing the proportion of residents isolated, shortening the delay to isolation, improving the effectiveness of isolation, restricting visitors and limiting staff to working in one care home. We additionally present a Shiny application for users to apply this model to their facility of interest, specifying care home, outbreak and intervention characteristics. RESULTS: The model suggests that importation of SARS-CoV-2 by staff, from the community, is the main driver of outbreaks, that importation by visitors or from hospitals is rare, and that the past testing strategy (monthly testing of residents and daily testing of staff by PCR) likely provides negligible benefit in preventing outbreaks. Daily staff testing by LFD was 39% (95% 18-55%) effective in preventing outbreaks at 30 days compared to no testing. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing the frequency of testing in staff and enhancing IPC are important to preventing importations to the care home. Further work is needed to understand the impact of vaccination in this population, which is likely to be very effective in preventing outbreaks.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Humans , Infection Control , Vaccination
6.
BMC Infect Dis ; 22(1): 556, 2022 Jun 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35717168

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 is known to transmit in hospital settings, but the contribution of infections acquired in hospitals to the epidemic at a national scale is unknown. METHODS: We used comprehensive national English datasets to determine the number of COVID-19 patients with identified hospital-acquired infections (with symptom onset > 7 days after admission and before discharge) in acute English hospitals up to August 2020. As patients may leave the hospital prior to detection of infection or have rapid symptom onset, we combined measures of the length of stay and the incubation period distribution to estimate how many hospital-acquired infections may have been missed. We used simulations to estimate the total number (identified and unidentified) of symptomatic hospital-acquired infections, as well as infections due to onward community transmission from missed hospital-acquired infections, to 31st July 2020. RESULTS: In our dataset of hospitalised COVID-19 patients in acute English hospitals with a recorded symptom onset date (n = 65,028), 7% were classified as hospital-acquired. We estimated that only 30% (range across weeks and 200 simulations: 20-41%) of symptomatic hospital-acquired infections would be identified, with up to 15% (mean, 95% range over 200 simulations: 14.1-15.8%) of cases currently classified as community-acquired COVID-19 potentially linked to hospital transmission. We estimated that 26,600 (25,900 to 27,700) individuals acquired a symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in an acute Trust in England before 31st July 2020, resulting in 15,900 (15,200-16,400) or 20.1% (19.2-20.7%) of all identified hospitalised COVID-19 cases. CONCLUSIONS: Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to hospitalised patients likely caused approximately a fifth of identified cases of hospitalised COVID-19 in the "first wave" in England, but less than 1% of all infections in England. Using time to symptom onset from admission for inpatients as a detection method likely misses a substantial proportion (> 60%) of hospital-acquired infections.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Cross Infection , COVID-19/epidemiology , Cross Infection/epidemiology , Hospitalization , Hospitals , Humans , SARS-CoV-2
7.
J Immunol ; 204(3): 644-659, 2020 02 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31862711

ABSTRACT

Tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, continues to be a major global health problem. Lung granulomas are organized structures of host immune cells that function to contain the bacteria. Cytokine expression is a critical component of the protective immune response, but inappropriate cytokine expression can exacerbate TB. Although the importance of proinflammatory cytokines in controlling M. tuberculosis infection has been established, the effects of anti-inflammatory cytokines, such as IL-10, in TB are less well understood. To investigate the role of IL-10, we used an Ab to neutralize IL-10 in cynomolgus macaques during M. tuberculosis infection. Anti-IL-10-treated nonhuman primates had similar overall disease outcomes compared with untreated control nonhuman primates, but there were immunological changes in granulomas and lymph nodes from anti-IL-10-treated animals. There was less thoracic inflammation and increased cytokine production in lung granulomas and lymph nodes from IL-10-neutralized animals at 3-4 wk postinfection compared with control animals. At 8 wk postinfection, lung granulomas from IL-10-neutralized animals had reduced cytokine production but increased fibrosis relative to control animals. Although these immunological changes did not affect the overall disease burden during the first 8 wk of infection, we paired computational modeling to explore late infection dynamics. Our findings support that early changes occurring in the absence of IL-10 may lead to better bacterial control later during infection. These unique datasets provide insight into the contribution of IL-10 to the immunological balance necessary for granulomas to control bacterial burden and disease pathology in M. tuberculosis infection.


Subject(s)
Granuloma/immunology , Inflammation/immunology , Interleukin-10/metabolism , Lung/pathology , Lymph Nodes/immunology , Mycobacterium tuberculosis/physiology , Tuberculosis/immunology , Animals , Antibodies, Neutralizing/metabolism , Cells, Cultured , Disease Models, Animal , Humans , Immunity , Lung/immunology , Macaca fascicularis , Pulmonary Fibrosis
8.
Immunol Rev ; 285(1): 147-167, 2018 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30129209

ABSTRACT

Immune responses to pathogens are complex and not well understood in many diseases, and this is especially true for infections by persistent pathogens. One mechanism that allows for long-term control of infection while also preventing an over-zealous inflammatory response from causing extensive tissue damage is for the immune system to balance pro- and anti-inflammatory cells and signals. This balance is dynamic and the immune system responds to cues from both host and pathogen, maintaining a steady state across multiple scales through continuous feedback. Identifying the signals, cells, cytokines, and other immune response factors that mediate this balance over time has been difficult using traditional research strategies. Computational modeling studies based on data from traditional systems can identify how this balance contributes to immunity. Here we provide evidence from both experimental and mathematical/computational studies to support the concept of a dynamic balance operating during persistent and other infection scenarios. We focus mainly on tuberculosis, currently the leading cause of death due to infectious disease in the world, and also provide evidence for other infections. A better understanding of the dynamically balanced immune response can help shape treatment strategies that utilize both drugs and host-directed therapies.


Subject(s)
Computational Biology/methods , Inflammation/immunology , Lung/pathology , Models, Immunological , Mycobacterium tuberculosis/physiology , Tuberculosis/immunology , Animals , Antitubercular Agents/therapeutic use , Feedback, Physiological , Humans , Inflammation/therapy , Lung/drug effects , Models, Theoretical , Signal Transduction , Tuberculosis/therapy
9.
Nursing ; 52(2): 40-45, 2022 Feb 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35085195

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT: Lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, questioning (or queer), and other sexual and gender minority (LGBTQ+) youth face various forms of bullying and mistreatment that may lead to suicide. Nurses can help recognize, address, and mitigate challenges associated with suicide among LGBTQ+ youth.


Subject(s)
Homosexuality, Female , Sexual and Gender Minorities , Suicide Prevention , Transgender Persons , Adolescent , Bisexuality , Female , Humans , Violence
10.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 16(12): e1008520, 2020 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33370784

ABSTRACT

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection causes tuberculosis (TB), a disease characterized by development of granulomas. Granulomas consist of activated immune cells that cluster together to limit bacterial growth and restrict dissemination. Control of the TB epidemic has been limited by lengthy drug regimens, antibiotic resistance, and lack of a robustly efficacious vaccine. Fibrosis commonly occurs during treatment and is associated with both positive and negative disease outcomes in TB but little is known about the processes that initiate fibrosis in granulomas. Human and nonhuman primate granulomas undergoing fibrosis can have spindle-shaped macrophages with fibroblast-like morphologies suggesting a relationship between macrophages, fibroblasts, and granuloma fibrosis. This relationship has been difficult to investigate because of the limited availability of human pathology samples, the time scale involved in human TB, and overlap between fibroblast and myeloid cell markers in tissues. To better understand the origins of fibrosis in TB, we used a computational model of TB granuloma biology to identify factors that drive fibrosis over the course of local disease progression. We validated the model with granulomas from nonhuman primates to delineate myeloid cells and lung-resident fibroblasts. Our results suggest that peripheral granuloma fibrosis, which is commonly observed, can arise through macrophage-to-myofibroblast transformation (MMT). Further, we hypothesize that MMT is induced in M1 macrophages through a sequential combination of inflammatory and anti-inflammatory signaling in granuloma macrophages. We predict that MMT may be a mechanism underlying granuloma-associated fibrosis and warrants further investigation into myeloid cells as drivers of fibrotic disease.


Subject(s)
Granuloma/pathology , Macrophages/pathology , Myofibroblasts/pathology , Systems Biology , Tuberculosis/pathology , Fibrosis , Humans , Mycobacterium tuberculosis/immunology , STAT1 Transcription Factor/metabolism , STAT3 Transcription Factor/metabolism
11.
J Pediatr Nurs ; 61: 151-156, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34062445

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Early recognition and response to clinical deterioration is critical to patient safety. Failures or delays in recognition and response often manifest as emergency transfers to the intensive care unit (ICU). We describe implementation of a program to improve recognition and response to clinical deterioration within the pediatric inpatient acute care setting (i.e., medical-surgical, hematology-oncology, and intermediate care units). DESIGN AND METHODS: We assembled an inter-professional team including nurses, physicians, and hospital leaders to evaluate preventable patient harm events associated with failures in identifying and responding to clinical deterioration and resultant emergency transfers to the intensive care unit (ICU). We evaluated an existing situational awareness framework incorporating principles of high-reliability organizations, refined the framework utilizing internal event analyses data, and subsequently implemented a program reducing emergency transfers. RESULTS: Emergency transfers to the ICU from acute care settings decreased by more than 70%, and to date, this improvement has sustained. Nurses report increased satisfaction and empowerment to proactively escalate their concerns, respond to changes in a patient's condition, and reduce uncertainty about the plan of care. CONCLUSIONS: The program has enhanced situational awareness, reduced emergency transfers, and fostered a culture of accountability and collaboration in alignment with the organizational core value of safety. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: Developing a reliable system to support the healthcare team in recognizing and responding to clinical deterioration reduces the risk of care delays. Applying situational awareness to other high-risk situations, additional areas for program expansion were identified, to include emergency department admissions and behavioral health patients.


Subject(s)
Child, Hospitalized , Intensive Care Units , Child , Hospitalization , Humans , Patient Safety , Reproducibility of Results
12.
Transfusion ; 60(12): 2918-2928, 2020 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33140420

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: At Canadian Blood Services, platelet concentrate (PC) shelf life was extended to 7 days with a large-volume, delayed-sampling bacterial screening algorithm. We present the development study and postimplementation results. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: In the development study, PCs inoculated with five bacteria (various concentrations) were incubated for 7 days with daily sampling for BacT/ALERT cultures and bacterial quantification. After implementation, from August 2017 to December 2019, a total of 223 156 pools and 39 725 apheresis units and 5310 outdated PCs were screened. Since March 2018, cocomponents associated to false-positive results have been released to inventory. RESULTS: In the development study, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Serratia marcescens, and Staphylococcus aureus were detected at concentrations of at least 0.01 colony-forming units (CFUs)/mL at 24 hours postinoculation. However, Staphylococcus epidermidis was detected at concentrations of less than 0.16 CFUs/mL only more than 48 hours postinoculation. After implementation, 776 (0.35%) and 303 (0.77%) initial-positive results and 201 (0.09%) and 16 (0.04%) confirmed-positive results were obtained for pools and apheresis units, respectively, predominantly with Cutibacterium acnes. Other organisms included staphylococci, streptococci, Klebsiella oxytoca and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. One nonfatal reaction involving a 7-day pool contaminated with S. epidermidis occurred. Approximately, 1-in-1000 false-negative screening results were obtained during testing of outdated PCs. Approximately 1000 cocomponents associated with false-positive results were released into inventory. Combined PC outdating at Canadian Blood Services and hospitals was reduced from 18.9% to 13.1%. CONCLUSION: Screening of 7-day PCs increased bacterial detection mainly of anaerobes and reduced outdating. The incidence of septic transfusion events has decreased approximately threefold. A longer surveillance period is needed to evaluate the value of anaerobic cultures and residual safety risk.


Subject(s)
Bacteria/growth & development , Bacteriological Techniques , Blood Platelets/microbiology , Blood Preservation , Blood Safety , Canada , Humans , Time Factors
13.
BMC Biotechnol ; 19(1): 32, 2019 06 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31164159

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Few natural product pathways from rare Actinomycetes have been studied due to the difficulty in applying molecular approaches in these genetically intractable organisms. In this study, we sought to identify more integrating vectors, using phage int/attP loci, that would efficiently integrate site-specifically in the rare Actinomycete, Amycolatopsis marina DSM45569. RESULTS: Analysis of the genome of A. marina DSM45569 indicated the presence of attB-like sequences for TG1 and R4 integrases. The TG1 and R4 attBs were active in in vitro recombination assays with their cognate purified integrases and attP loci. Integrating vectors containing either the TG1 or R4 int/attP loci yielded exconjugants in conjugation assays from Escherichia coli to A. marina DSM45569. Site-specific recombination of the plasmids into the host TG1 or R4 attB sites was confirmed by sequencing. CONCLUSIONS: The homologous TG1 and R4 attB sites within the genus Amycolatopsis have been identified. The results indicate that vectors based on TG1 and R4 integrases could be widely applicable in this genus.


Subject(s)
Actinobacteria/genetics , Genetic Vectors/genetics , Genome, Bacterial/genetics , Recombination, Genetic , Actinobacteria/virology , Amycolatopsis , Attachment Sites, Microbiological/genetics , Base Sequence , Integrases/genetics , Integrases/metabolism , Sequence Homology, Nucleic Acid , Viral Proteins/genetics , Viral Proteins/metabolism
14.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 13(2): e1005351, 2017 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28158307

ABSTRACT

A calibrated computational model reflects behaviours that are expected or observed in a complex system, providing a baseline upon which sensitivity analysis techniques can be used to analyse pathways that may impact model responses. However, calibration of a model where a behaviour depends on an intervention introduced after a defined time point is difficult, as model responses may be dependent on the conditions at the time the intervention is applied. We present ASPASIA (Automated Simulation Parameter Alteration and SensItivity Analysis), a cross-platform, open-source Java toolkit that addresses a key deficiency in software tools for understanding the impact an intervention has on system behaviour for models specified in Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML). ASPASIA can generate and modify models using SBML solver output as an initial parameter set, allowing interventions to be applied once a steady state has been reached. Additionally, multiple SBML models can be generated where a subset of parameter values are perturbed using local and global sensitivity analysis techniques, revealing the model's sensitivity to the intervention. To illustrate the capabilities of ASPASIA, we demonstrate how this tool has generated novel hypotheses regarding the mechanisms by which Th17-cell plasticity may be controlled in vivo. By using ASPASIA in conjunction with an SBML model of Th17-cell polarisation, we predict that promotion of the Th1-associated transcription factor T-bet, rather than inhibition of the Th17-associated transcription factor RORγt, is sufficient to drive switching of Th17 cells towards an IFN-γ-producing phenotype. Our approach can be applied to all SBML-encoded models to predict the effect that intervention strategies have on system behaviour. ASPASIA, released under the Artistic License (2.0), can be downloaded from http://www.york.ac.uk/ycil/software.


Subject(s)
Algorithms , Models, Biological , Programming Languages , Software , Systems Biology/methods , Computer Simulation
15.
Eur J Epidemiol ; 33(7): 635-644, 2018 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29572656

ABSTRACT

To date, Alzheimer's disease (AD) clinical trials have been largely unsuccessful. Failures have been attributed to a number of factors including ineffective drugs, inadequate targets, and poor trial design, of which the choice of endpoint is crucial. Using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, we have calculated the minimum detectable effect size (MDES) in change from baseline of a range of measures over time, and in different diagnostic groups along the AD development trajectory. The Functional Activities Questionnaire score had the smallest MDES for a single endpoint where an effect of 27% could be detected within 3 years in participants with Late Mild Cognitive Impairment (LMCI) at baseline, closely followed by the Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDRSB) score at 28% after 2 years in the same group. Composite measures were even more successful than single endpoints with an MDES of 21% in 3 years. Using alternative cognitive, imaging, functional, or composite endpoints, and recruiting patients that have LMCI could improve the success rate of AD clinical trials.


Subject(s)
Alzheimer Disease/drug therapy , Brain/drug effects , Brain/diagnostic imaging , Cognition/drug effects , Neuroimaging/methods , Humans , Magnetic Resonance Imaging , Treatment Outcome
16.
Br J Nurs ; 27(7): 402-404, 2018 Apr 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29634329

ABSTRACT

Hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) has been shown to be the second most common healthcare-acquired infection (HCAI) after urinary tract infection and linked to more than half of all deaths from HCAIs. Preventing the infection could potentially save many lives. The author therefore proposes that HAP could be prevented by the implementation of a risk-assessment tool. A hypothetical risk-assessment tool is discussed. Several potential risk factors are proposed; however, further research into these risk factors and the appropriate weighting to give these in developing such a tool is required.


Subject(s)
Cross Infection/epidemiology , Cross Infection/prevention & control , Healthcare-Associated Pneumonia/epidemiology , Healthcare-Associated Pneumonia/prevention & control , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Cross Infection/economics , Cross Infection/mortality , Female , Healthcare-Associated Pneumonia/economics , Healthcare-Associated Pneumonia/mortality , Hospital Costs , Humans , Incidence , Length of Stay , Male , Middle Aged , Pressure Ulcer/prevention & control , Risk Assessment/methods , Risk Factors , Young Adult
17.
Cell Tissue Res ; 370(1): 29-39, 2017 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28560691

ABSTRACT

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most frequent tumor types in Western countries. Approximately 20 % of patients show metastasis at the time of diagnosis, with the liver being one of the most affected organs. Transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-ß) plays a regulatory role not only in the physiology of the normal colon but also in the development of CRC and its metastatic process. In this review, we analyze the molecular mechanisms leading to TGF-ß dysregulation in tumor and stroma cells and the modification of the microenvironment that fosters CRC metastasis. Recent genomic studies have identified a CRC subtype with a mesenchymal and aggressive phenotype having TGF-ß as a hub gene of this signature. Consistent with these findings, the inhibition of TGF-ß signaling has been shown to impair experimental CRC metastasis to the liver. Based on these and other results conducted in various tumor types, the pharmaceutical industry has developed a variety of strategies to target TGF-ß. We provide up-to-date information of these therapies, which are currently in preclinical or clinical trials.


Subject(s)
Colon/pathology , Colorectal Neoplasms/pathology , Rectum/pathology , Transforming Growth Factor beta/metabolism , Animals , Colon/drug effects , Colon/metabolism , Colorectal Neoplasms/drug therapy , Colorectal Neoplasms/genetics , Colorectal Neoplasms/metabolism , Drug Discovery/methods , Epithelial-Mesenchymal Transition/drug effects , Gene Expression Regulation, Neoplastic/drug effects , Humans , Liver Neoplasms/drug therapy , Liver Neoplasms/metabolism , Liver Neoplasms/pathology , Liver Neoplasms/secondary , Molecular Targeted Therapy/methods , Neoplasm Metastasis/drug therapy , Neoplasm Metastasis/genetics , Neoplasm Metastasis/pathology , Neoplastic Stem Cells/drug effects , Neoplastic Stem Cells/metabolism , Neoplastic Stem Cells/pathology , Rectum/drug effects , Rectum/metabolism , Signal Transduction/drug effects , Transforming Growth Factor beta/analysis , Transforming Growth Factor beta/genetics
18.
J Biol Chem ; 289(38): 26554-26565, 2014 Sep 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25104356

ABSTRACT

The target of rapamycin complex 1 (TORC1) is a key conserved regulator of eukaryotic cell growth. The xenobiotic rapamycin is a potent inhibitor of the yeast complex. Surprisingly, the EGO complex, a nonessential in vivo activator of TORC1, is somehow required for yeast cells to recover efficiently from a period of treatment with rapamycin. Why? Here, we found that rapamycin is only a partial inhibitor of TORC1. We confirmed that saturating amounts of rapamycin do not fully inhibit proliferation of wild-type cells, and we found that the residual proliferation in the presence of the drug is dependent on the EGO complex and on the activity of TORC1. We found that this residual TORC1-dependent proliferation is key to recovery from rapamycin treatment. First, the residual proliferation rate correlates with the ability of cells to recover from treatment. Second, the residual proliferation rate persists long after washout of the drug and until cells recover. Third, the total observable pool of cell-associated rapamycin is extremely stable and decreases only with increasing cell number after washout of the drug. Finally, consideration of the residual proliferation rate alone accurately and quantitatively accounts for the kinetics of recovery of wild-type cells and for the nature and severity of the ego- mutant defect. Overall, our results revealed that rapamycin is a partial inhibitor of yeast TORC1, that persistence of the drug limits recovery, and that rapamycin is not detoxified by yeast but is passively diluted among progeny cells because of residual proliferation.


Subject(s)
Antifungal Agents/pharmacology , Saccharomyces cerevisiae Proteins/physiology , Saccharomyces cerevisiae/growth & development , Sirolimus/pharmacology , Transcription Factors/physiology , Antifungal Agents/metabolism , Caffeine/pharmacology , Drug Resistance, Fungal , Gene Knockout Techniques , Saccharomyces cerevisiae/drug effects , Saccharomyces cerevisiae/metabolism , Saccharomyces cerevisiae Proteins/antagonists & inhibitors , Saccharomyces cerevisiae Proteins/genetics , Sirolimus/metabolism , Transcription Factors/antagonists & inhibitors
20.
Bioconjug Chem ; 25(11): 2030-7, 2014 Nov 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25250692

ABSTRACT

Hypoxia has been associated with retinal diseases which lead the causes of irreversible vision loss, including diabetic retinopathy, retinopathy of prematurity, and age-related macular degeneration. Therefore, technologies for imaging hypoxia in the retina are needed for early disease detection, monitoring of disease progression, and assessment of therapeutic responses in the patient. Toward this goal, we developed two hypoxia-sensitive imaging agents based on nitroimidazoles which are capable of accumulating in hypoxic cells in vivo. 2-nitroimidazole or Pimonidazole was conjugated to fluorescent dyes to yield the imaging agents HYPOX-1 and HYPOX-2. Imaging agents were characterized in cell culture and animal models of retinal vascular diseases which exhibit hypoxia. Both HYPOX-1 and -2 were capable of detecting hypoxia in cell culture models with >10:1 signal-to-noise ratios without acute toxicity. Furthermore, intraocular administration of contrast agents in mouse models of retinal hypoxia enabled ex vivo detection of hypoxic tissue. These imaging agents are a promising step toward translation of hypoxia-sensitive molecular imaging agents in preclinical animal models and patients.


Subject(s)
Hypoxia/diagnosis , Molecular Imaging/methods , Molecular Probes , Retina/metabolism , Animals , Cell Line , Cell Survival , Fluorescein-5-isothiocyanate/chemistry , Humans , Hypoxia/metabolism , Mice , Molecular Probes/chemistry , Nitroimidazoles/chemistry , Retina/pathology , Retinal Neurons/pathology
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