Diffusion analysis of single particle trajectories in a Bayesian nonparametrics framework.

Single particle tracking (SPT), where individual molecules are fluorescently labelled and followed over time, is an important tool that allows the spatiotemporal dynamics of subcellular biological systems to be studied at very fine temporal and spatial resolution. Mathematical models of particle motion are typically based on Brownian diffusion, reflecting the noisy environment that biomolecules inhabit. In order to study changes in particle behaviour within individual tracks, Hidden Markov models (HMM) featuring multiple diffusive states have been used as a descriptive tool for SPT data. However, such models are typically specified with an a priori defined number of particle states and it has not been clear how such assumptions have affected their outcomes. Here, we propose a method for simultaneously inferring the number of diffusive states alongside the dynamic parameters governing particle motion. Our method is an infinite HMM (iHMM) with the general framework of Bayesian nonparametric models. We directly extend previous applications of these concepts in molecular biophysics to the SPT framework and propose and test an additional constraint with the goal of accelerating convergence and reducing computational time. We test our iHMM using simulated data and apply it to a previously analyzed large SPT dataset for B cell receptor motion on the plasma membrane of B cells of the immune system.

Importance of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy in older age groups.

IMPORTANCE: An effective vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 will reduce morbidity and mortality and allow substantial relaxation of physical distancing policies. However, the ability of a vaccine to prevent infection or disease depends critically on protecting older individuals, who are at highest risk of severe disease. OBJECTIVE: We quantitatively estimated the relative benefits of COVID-19 vaccines, in terms of preventing infection and death, with a particular focus on effectiveness in elderly people. DESIGN: We applied compartmental mathematical modelling to determine the relative effects of vaccines that block infection and onward transmission, and those that prevent severe disease. We assumed that vaccines showing high efficacy in adults would be deployed, and examined the effects of lower vaccine efficacy among the elderly population. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Our mathematical model was calibrated to simulate the course of an epidemic among the entire population of British Columbia, Canada. Within our model, the population was structured by age and levels of contact. MAIN OUTCOME(S) AND MEASURE(S): We assessed the effectiveness of possible vaccines in terms of the predicted number of infections within the entire population, and deaths among people aged 65 years and over. RESULTS: In order to reduce the overall rate of infections in the population, high rates of deployment to all age groups will be critical. However, to substantially reduce mortality among people aged 65 years and over, a vaccine must directly protect a high proportion of people in that group. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Effective vaccines deployed to a large fraction of the population are projected to substantially reduce infection in an otherwise susceptible population. However, even if transmission were blocked highly effectively by vaccination of children and younger adults, overall mortality would not be substantially reduced unless the vaccine is also directly protective in elderly people. We strongly recommend: (i) the inclusion of people aged 65 years and over in future trials of COVID-19 vaccine candidates; (ii) careful monitoring of vaccine efficacy in older age groups following vaccination.

Limitations of Qdot labelling compared to directly-conjugated probes for single particle tracking of B cell receptor mobility.

Single-particle tracking (SPT) is a powerful method for exploring single-molecule dynamics in living cells with nanoscale spatiotemporal resolution. Photostability and bright fluorescence make quantum dots (Qdots) a popular choice for SPT. However, their large size could potentially alter the mobility of the molecule of interest. To test this, we labelled B cell receptors on the surface of B-lymphocytes with monovalent Fab fragments of antibodies that were either linked to Qdots via streptavidin or directly conjugated to the small organic fluorophore Cy3. Imaging of receptor mobility by total internal reflection fluorescence microscopy (TIRFM), followed by quantitative single-molecule diffusion and confinement analysis, definitively showed that Qdots sterically hinder lateral mobility regardless of the substrate to which the cells were adhered. Qdot labelling also drastically altered the frequency with which receptors transitioned between apparent slow- and fast-moving states and reduced the size of apparent confinement zones. Although we show that Qdot-labelled probes can detect large differences in receptor mobility, they fail to resolve subtle differences in lateral diffusion that are readily detectable using Cy3-labelled Fabs. Our findings highlight the utility and limitations of using Qdots for TIRFM and wide-field-based SPT, and have significant implications for interpreting SPT data.