Changes in skin cancer morbidity between 1971-72 and 1977-78.

Skin cancer incidence rates for two geographic areas of the United States were analyzed for detection of significant changes in risk over a 6-year period (1971-72 to 1977-78). Changes in rates were examined by cell type, anatomic site, sex, and age. In general risk has increased, but the size of the increase varied by cell type, sex, and anatomic site. Statistically significant increases were limited to tumors of the basal type. The risk of basal cell skin cancer appears to have increased about 18% or almost 3% per year. Increases did not depend on age group. Among males the increases were most notable for sites other than face, head, and neck, whereas among females the increases were not associated with site.

Statistical analysis of a carcinogen mixture experiment. I. Liver carcinogens.

This paper describes factorial experiments designed to determine whether 2 liver carcinogens act synergistically to produce liver cancers in Fischer 344 rats. Four hepatocarcinogens, cycad flour, lasiocarpine (CAS: 303-34-4), aflatoxin B1 (CAS: 1162-65-8), and dipentylnitrosamine (CAS: 13256-06-9), were studied in pairwise combinations. Each of the 6 possible pairs was studied by means of 4 X 4 factorial experiment, each agent being fed at zero and at 3 non-zero doses. Methods of analysis designed explicitly for this study were derived to study interaction. These methods were supplemented by standard statistical methods appropriate for one-at-a-time studies. Antagonism was not discovered in any chemical mixture. Some chemical mixtures did interact synergistically. Findings for male and female animals were generally, but not always, in agreement.

Comparison and evaluation of some experimental designs for use in carcinogen screening.

The development and evaluation of experimental designs for routine in vivo screening of chemicals for potential carcinogenic activity were considered. Such designs have played an important role in the Carcinogenesis Bloassay Program of the National Cancer Institute (NCI). In particular, the current one-stage 50-animal/group screen used by the NCI was considered. A specific two-stage alternative was proposed in which 35 animals/group were used; this alternative allowed for retesting of equivocal compounds. The proposed designs were evaluated in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and throughout. Despite the large number of tests made for each compound, the false-positive rate was found to be less than 0.07 for the current screen and less than 0.05 for the proposed two-stage alternative. The power of the one-stage and two-stage screens was comparable. The two-stage screen was shown to make about 30% more decisions per test period with a savings of around 28% in the expected number of animals needed per compound tested.

Cancer surveillance series: changing patterns of cutaneous malignant melanoma mortality rates among whites in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Mortality from melanoma among whites is still increasing in the United States. In this study, we describe the changing patterns of melanoma mortality rates among whites by demographic factors and geography and further assess the relationship between the geographic patterns and the UV radiation (UV-B) level. METHODS: Age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates were computed by use of the 1970 U.S. population standard. Annual percent changes of mortality were estimated by fitting regression lines to the logarithm of rates. The relationships between melanoma mortality rates and UV-B level over time were assessed by weighted regressions. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: From 1950-1954 through 1990-1994, melanoma mortality rates increased by 191% and 84% among males and females, respectively. Mortality rates peaked in the 1930 through 1950 birth cohorts for females and in the 1935 through 1950 birth cohorts for males. In the 1950 through 1969 study period, melanoma mortality rates showed a strong North-South gradient, but the gradient weakened in recent periods. The absolute change in mortality for a 10% increase in UV-B among females decreased from 0.08 additional deaths per 100 000 person-years in 1950-1959 to 0.01 additional deaths in 1990-1995. In contrast, the absolute change in mortality among males showed little change over time; additional deaths increased from 0.11 to 0.12 per 100 000 person-years. CONCLUSIONS: Melanoma mortality in the United States reflects the complex interplay of UV radiation levels in each geographic region, the sun-protection behaviors of each generation of males and females in childhood and adulthood, the geographic mobility of the population, and the risk awareness and early detection.

False-positive and false-negative rates for carcinogenicity screens.

The implementation of a number of chemical carcinogen screening programs has been accompanied by the observation that some screens might have high false-positive error rates. With designs presently used at the National Cancer Institute and historical spontaneous tumor rates based upon control animals in previous experiments, we compute upper bounds on the false-positive error rates for several screening strategies. False-positive results are much less likely to occur at tissue sites with low spontaneous tumor rates; hence the site at which a significant tumor increase occurs is important. There is danger in relying solely upon the finding of statistical significance without incorporating biological knowledge and corroborative evidence such as the presence of a dose-response relationship or experimentally consistent results in different species or sexes. A report by the National Cancer Institute Carcinogenesis Program demonstrates these concepts.

Epidemiology of squamous cell conjunctival cancer.

The etiology of squamous cell carcinoma of the conjunctiva (SCCC) is not well known. A possible role of UVB radiation is suggested by an excess of SCCC in tropical countries and by the association between squamous cell skin cancer and exposure to UVB. Human papillomavirus type 16 also may be involved, given that it has been detected in benign and malignant conjunctival lesions and is the primary etiological agent involved in carcinoma of the anogenital tract. To examine the relationship between UVB exposure and SCCC, population-based age-adjusted incidence rates of SCCC and of conjunctival melanoma and squamous cell cancer of the eyelid were plotted against the UVB insolation of each registry site. Incidence data were examined further for patterns of second primary cancers among people with SCCC. SCCC was rare in the United States, with an incidence rate of 0.03 per 100,000 persons, although the rate was approximately 5-fold higher among males and whites. Regression analysis suggested a link between UVB exposure and SCCC rates (beta = 2.25; r = 0.58) that was as strong as that for squamous cell carcinoma of the eyelid (beta = 2.73; r = 0.62) and much stronger than for conjunctival melanoma (beta = 0.28; r = 0.02). Risk of a second malignancy after SCCC was not increased overall (20 observed and 14.1 expected), although a significant excess of salivary gland cancer (4 observed and 0.03 expected) and a borderline excess of lung cancer (6 observed and 2.4 expected) were noted. These observations suggest that UV radiation likely contributes to SCCC development. Additional research is needed to define the other exposures and host susceptibility that likely interact with UV-related genetic damage in the multifactorial development of this rare neoplasm.

Reproducibility studies and interlaboratory concordance for androgen assays in female plasma.

We conducted studies to determine the magnitude and sources of variability in androgen assay results and to identify laboratories capable of performing such assays for large epidemiological studies. We studied androstanediol (ADIOL), androstanediol glucuronide (ADIOL G), androstenedione (ADION), androsterone glucuronide (ANDRO G), androsterone sulfate (ANDRO S), dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEA S), dihydrotestosterone (DHT), and testosterone (TESTO). A single sample of plasma was obtained from five postmenopausal women, five premenopausal women in the midfollicular phase of the menstrual cycle, and five women in the midluteal phase, divided into aliquots, and stored at -70 degrees. Four sets of two coded aliquots from each woman were then sent to participating labs for analysis at monthly intervals over 4 months. Using the logarithm of assay measurements, we estimated the components of variance and three measures of reproducibility. The usual coefficient of variation is a function of the components that are under the control of the laboratory. The intraclass correlation between measurements for a given individual is the proportion of the total variability that is associated with individuals. The minimum detectable relative difference is important to evaluate study feasibility. Results suggest that a single sample of ADIOL G, DHEA, DHEA S, and ANDRO G (with two lab replicates per sample) can be used to discriminate reliably among women in a given menstrual phase or menopausal status. The results for DHT, TESTO, ADION, and ANDRO S are more problematic and suggest that the present measurement techniques should be used with care, especially with midluteal phase women. The results for ADIOL suggest that this assay is not yet ready for use in epidemiological studies.

A new ELISA kit for measuring urinary 2-hydroxyestrone, 16alpha-hydroxyestrone, and their ratio: reproducibility, validity, and assay performance after freeze-thaw cycling and preservation by boric acid.

There is considerable controversy regarding the role of estrogen metabolites in breast cancer risk, fueled in part by the development of a rapid ELISA that is suitable for large scale investigations. An earlier version of the ELISA could detect values of the 2-hydroxyestrone (2-OHE1) and 16alpha-hydroxyestrone (16alpha-OHE1) metabolites as low as 2 ng/ml and produce consistent results in premenopausal urines. However, reproducibility was problematic in postmenopausal urines where concentrations of these compounds are much lower. In response to our concern, a new ELISA was developed with a sensitivity of 0.625 ng/ml, which we evaluated using the same pre- and postmenopausal urine samples analyzed in the earlier ELISA. In this report, we present findings on the new kit with regard to reproducibility of the 2-OHE1 and 16alpha-OHE1 measurements, comparability of results with gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy values, and with regard to the stability of the metabolites after repeated freeze-thaw cycles and after preservation by boric acid. For the most part, we found the new ELISA to be reproducible, with assay coefficients of variation ranging from 10 to 20%, and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) ranging from 80 to 95% in both the pre- and postmenopausal urines. ELISA results for 16alpha-OHE1 differed from 1 day (i.e., batch) to the next, and the absolute values of the metabolites obtained by the ELISA were consistently lower than but well correlated with those obtained by gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy. Values of the 2-OHE1:16alpha-OHE1 ratio also differed between the methods, but because the range of values was not large, the magnitude of these differences was not as great. For the ratio, the correlation between methods was excellent, and the ICCs were high for both groups of women. After preservation by boric acid, values of the ratio varied according to acid concentration but not in a linear fashion. Ratio values were similar in urine samples exposed to four different freeze-thaw cycle treatments, although values for all treatments were consistently lower in one batch. Because batch-to-batch variability was not negligible, it is advisable that matched cases and controls be analyzed in the same batch. Provided this is done, the relatively low assay coefficient of variation and high ICC demonstrate that the new ELISA kit can reliably measure the 2-OHE1:16alpha-OHE1 ratio and detect small case-control differences in large population-based studies, where rapid and relatively easy laboratory methods are critical.

Reproducibility studies and interlaboratory concordance for assays of serum hormone levels: estrone, estradiol, estrone sulfate, and progesterone.

We conducted studies to measure sources of assay variability for estrone, estradiol, estrone sulfate, and progesterone for postmenopausal women (n = 5) and for women in the mid-follicular (n = 5) and mid-luteal (n = 5) phases of the menstrual cycle. A single blood sample from each woman was divided into 2.5-ml aliquots and stored at -70 degrees C, and sets of two aliquots were sent at monthly intervals to each of three laboratories (four for progesterone). Each aliquot was analyzed in duplicate. Thus, within each menstrual category, we were able to estimate the components of variance due to variation among women, variation among aliquots, variation among duplicate measurements, and variation among the 4 analysis days. Using the logarithm of assay measurements, we estimated the percentage of variance attributable to variation among women in each menstrual category, 100 rho, is the estimated intraclass correlation. For each assay, 100 rho exceeded 90% for mid-follicular and mid-luteal women. For postmenopausal women, values of 100 rho exceed 84% for estrone in two laboratories. Values of 100 rho were lower for progesterone in postmenopausal women, although a value of 84% was estimated from one laboratory. These studies indicate that estrogen assays over a period of 3 months permit reliable comparisons among women in a given menstrual category. Progesterone measurements are likewise reliable for women in the mid-follicular and mid-luteal phases but somewhat less satisfactory for postmenopausal women. These assessments of variability pertain only to laboratory techniques and do not allow for secular variation in intra-woman hormone levels. Moreover, although these measurements tend to be reliable enough for making comparisons among women, estimates of coefficients of variation for estrogens are about 10% for mid-follicular and mid-luteal phase women and about 11-20% for postmenopausal women. Coefficients of variation for progesterone are about 10% for mid-luteal, 20% for mid-follicular, and 30% for postmenopausal women.

Reproducibility and validity of radioimmunoassays for urinary hormones and metabolites in pre- and postmenopausal women.

The reproducibility of RIAs of circulating sex hormones has been evaluated as part of recent epidemiological investigations, but none seem to have addressed the reproducibility or validity of RIAs for urinary hormones or their metabolites. As part of a case-control study of breast cancer in Asian-American women, 12-h overnight urine samples were obtained, and a methodological study was conducted to identify laboratories capable of assaying urinary hormones. For the reproducibility component of this study, two laboratories with extensive experience in hormone assays measured urinary estrone, estradiol, estriol, pregnanediol glucuronide, and estrone glucuronide using samples from 15 women (5 midfollicular, 5 midluteal, and 5 postmenopausal). Variance estimates from these measurements were used to calculate the laboratory variability (coefficient of variation) and to assess the magnitude of the biological variability among the women in relation to the total variability (intraclass correlation coefficient). For the validity component, urinary estrone, estradiol, and estriol levels were measured in the same samples by gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy in the laboratory of Dr. Herman Adlercreutz (University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland). We found that the degree of assay reproducibility differed between the laboratories, but that laboratory variability was usually low compared with the range of hormone values among women, particularly for the estrogens. Values for estrone and estradiol were well correlated among all of the laboratories. For estriol, the RIAs tended to overestimate levels compared with gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy. In one laboratory, assays for pregnanediol glucuronide and estrone glucuronide were consistently reproduced; in the other, the reproducibility of the RIA for pregnanediol glucuronide was problematic, and estrone glucuronide was not measured. Despite some limitations, urinary hormones and their metabolites can be reliably measured by current RIAs in large investigations attempting to link hormone level to disease risk and may be particularly advantageous for studies of postmenopausal women, where serum concentrations of estrone and estradiol are low and assay measurements are not as dependable.

Insulin-like growth factors and prostate cancer: a population-based case-control study in China.

Insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) have potent mitogenic and antiapoptotic effects on prostate epithelial cells. Through modulation of IGF bioactivity and other mechanisms, IGF-binding proteins (IGFBPs) also have growth-regulatory effects on prostate cells. Recently, IGF-I and IGFBP-3 have been implicated in prostate cancer risk among Western populations. To assess whether IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-1, or IGFBP-3 are also associated with prostate cancer in a low-risk population, we measured plasma levels of these factors among 128 newly diagnosed prostate cancer cases and 306 randomly selected population controls in Shanghai, China. Relative to the lowest quartile of IGF-I levels, men in the highest quartile had a 2.6-fold higher prostate cancer risk, with a significant trend [odds ratio (OR) = 2.63; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 1.19-5.79; P(trend) = 0.01]. In contrast, men in the highest quartile of IGFBP-3 levels had a 46% decreased risk relative to the lowest quartile (OR = 0.54; 95% CI = 0.26-1.15; P(trend) = 0.08). A similar but less distinct result was observed for IGFBP-1 (OR = 0.60; 95% CI = 0.31-1.17; P(trend) = 0.25). Men in the highest quartile for the IGF-I:IGFBP-3 molar ratio (an indirect measure of free IGF-I) had a 2.5-fold higher risk compared with the lowest quartile (OR = 2.51; 95% CI = 1.32-4.75, P(trend) < 0.001). These associations were more pronounced after adjustment for serum 5alpha-androstane-3alpha,17beta-diol glucuronide and sex hormone-binding globulin levels. There was no significant association with IGF-II levels. Our findings in a low-risk population provide evidence that IGF-I, IGFBP-3, and IGFBP-1 are determinants of prostate cancer and indicate that additional studies are needed to evaluate their effects on ethnic and geographic incidence differentials and to elucidate carcinogenic mechanisms.

Cancer and a fatiguing illness in Northern Nevada--a causal hypothesis.

PURPOSE: We investigated the possibility that chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) predisposes to cancer by comparing the cancer pattern in an area in northern Nevada, where an outbreak of a fatiguing illness, which included cases of CFS, was reported, to an area in southern Nevada, where no such illness was reported. METHODS: Data from the computerized Nevada Cancer Registry were utilized to compare incidence rates of four malignancies--brain cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), lung cancer, and breast cancer--in Washoe and Lyon Counties, where an unexplained fatiguing illness was reported during 1984-86, with comparably sized Clark County, where no such illness was reported. RESULTS: Higher incidences of NHL and primary brain tumors were noted in the two northern Nevada counties (Washoe and Lyon) in 1986 and 1987 respectively, compared to the southern Nevada (Clark) county. Similar patterns were not seen for breast or lung cancer. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a model for investigating the possible predisposition of CFS patients to develop cancer using other cohorts, but it is currently premature to accept such a link at this time.

Quantifying estrogen metabolism: an evaluation of the reproducibility and validity of enzyme immunoassays for 2-hydroxyestrone and 16alpha-hydroxyestrone in urine.

Rapid and simple enzyme immunoassays (EIAs) were recently developed to measure 2-hydroxyestrone and 16alpha-hydroxyestrone in unextracted urine. The balance between these competing estrogen metabolism pathways may serve as a biomarker of breast cancer risk. Before testing these assays in epidemiologic studies, we evaluated their reproducibility, and validity relative to gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy (GC-MS). Overnight 12-hr urine collections from five midfollicular premenopausal women, five midluteal premenopausal women, and five postmenopausal women were aliquoted and stored at -70 degrees C. Two aliquots from each woman were assayed with the EIAs in a random, blinded order, monthly over 4 months and 1 year later. Reproducibility over 4 months was good for both metabolites in premenopausal women (coefficient of variation = 8-14%) and satisfactory in postmenopausal women (approximately 19%). Reproducibility over 12 months remained good in premenopausal women, but was poor in postmenopausal women, with mean readings increasing 50 to 100%. Wide variation in estrogen metabolite levels enabled a single EIA measurement to characterize individual differences among premenopausal women in midfollicular (intraclass correlation coefficient = 98-99%) and midluteal phase (85-91%). A narrower range in metabolite levels among postmenopausal women reduced discrimination (78-82%). The correlation between EIA and GC-MS measurement was excellent for both metabolites (r>0.9), except for 2-hydroxyestrone in postmenopausal women (r=0.6). Analysis of absolute agreement suggested that both EIAs were less sensitive than GC-MS, and each detected nonspecific background. The low concentration of estrogen metabolites in urine from postmenopausal women may explain the problems with reproducibility and validity in this menstrual group. Accordingly, more sensitive EIAs have been developed and are now being evaluated.

Can protocol-specified doses of chemotherapy and radiotherapy be used as a measure of treatment actually received? A CCG/NIH study on long-term survivors of acute lymphocytic leukemia.

In a cohort of 593 long-term survivors of acute lymphocytic leukemia identified through the Children's Cancer Group (CCG), treatment abstracts were obtained and compared to protocol information on radiation therapy and intravenous chemotherapy. This was done in order to evaluate the actual compliance to protocol-specified treatment, and assess if protocol-specified doses can be used in studies of late effects of treatment. The compliance to protocol-specified type of treatment ranged between 95.3% (intrathecal methotrexate) and 98.6% (adriamycin) for chemotherapy, and between 94.1% (cranial radiation) and 97.0% (extended field radiation) for radiation. Concordance with the protocol-specified chemotherapy dose (+/- 25%) was 57.5% for adriamycin, 91.3% for daunomycin, and 48.5% for cyclophosphamide. When concordance was low, most patients received doses that were lower than expected. Concordance with chemotherapy was significantly lower for high-dose regimens than for low-dose regimens. Concordance with protocol-specified radiation dose (+/- 10%) was 87.4% for cranial radiation, 87.8% for spinal radiation, and 85.7% for extended field radiation. Concordance with treatment did not differ by gender, relapse status, or age at diagnosis. In this cohort of leukemia survivors, the validity of type of treatment was greater than the validity of dosage. Great care should be used when drawing conclusions about effects of treatment dosage. Although costly and time consuming, it appears that chart reviews are the most appropriate way to collect information about dose-related effects of therapy.

Experiences of cancer in children and adolescents.

In an effort to understand the effect of cancer diagnosis and treatment in children and adolescents, and to identify issues that should be addressed with newly diagnosed patients, 85 patients with Ewing's sarcoma family tumors (ESFT) were interviewed about their experience of having cancer. This represents 90% of all eligible patients who survived at least 3 years since their diagnosis and who were treated for ESFT at the National Cancer Institute (NCI) from 1965-1993. The mean age of patients at the time of diagnosis was 15.8 +/- 5.3 years, and mean time since diagnosis was 13.6 +/- 6.4 years. Patients from this cohort had a disease usually related to poor outcome. Patients answered five open-ended written questions. Negative experiences that they described included transient and permanent discomfort and disabilities related to cancer; disruption of life or relationships; and emotional aspects of cancer diagnosis or treatment. Positive aspects of having cancer included changed attitudes about self and life, improved relationships with others, or better job performance. Advice for newly diagnosed patients most often dealt with the emotional aspects of cancer. The importance of patient-to-patient support was frequently described. Overall, having cancer was not an entirely negative experience, and it may result in introspection and improved relationships with others.

Pathways Linking Treatment Intensity and Psychosocial Outcomes among Adult Survivors of Childhood Leukemia.

To determine the pathways between treatment intensity (age at diagnosis, dosage of chemotherapy [intrathecal methotrexate; IT-MTX] and cranial radiation [CRT]) and various psychosocial outcomes, review of medical records and structured interviews were carried out in 510 adult survivors of childhood leukemia. Structural equation modeling revealed that higher treatment intensity during childhood (indicated by treatment with high-dose CRT, low-dose IT-MTX, and adjusted by younger age at diagnosis) predicted more health- compromising behaviors as adults through lower educational achievement. Additionally, higher childhood treatment intensity predicted current negative mood both directly and via changes in perceived limitations. The present study's findings suggest that higher treatment intensity during childhood may serve as a risk factor for adult survivors' health-compromising behaviors through neuropsychological deficits that arise from cancer treatment.

A population-based cohort study on early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma treated with radiotherapy alone: with special reference to older patients.

BACKGROUND: Combined modality treatment has reduced the risk of relapse among younger early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) patients. Older HL patients may not tolerate chemotherapy and their prognosis is less favorable. We conducted a population-based study to evaluate long-term follow-up outcome in older early-stage HL patients initially treated with radiotherapy (RT) alone. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We included 308 consecutive patients (22% were >or=60 years) diagnosed 1972-1999 (median follow-up 20 years; range 1-28). Using Cox regression models we defined risk of relapse and survival in relation to clinical factors. RESULTS: 272/308 (88%) patients obtained complete remission following first-line RT alone. Among these, 42% relapsed within a median of 21 months. The relapse rate was independent of gender and age at diagnosis (median age 32 years, range 14-85); however, lymphocyte-predominant HL was associated with borderline (P=0.049) 56% decreased risk of relapse. Among patients<60 years and >or=60 years, we observed 29 (median latency 10 years, range 2-25) and 11 (median latency 3 years, range 1-10) second tumors, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Older age (>or=60 years) was not associated with an increased risk of relapse following RT alone. Given the risks of iatrogenic morbidity/mortality of chemotherapy in older patients, RT alone could be an alternative first-line therapy in early-stage older HL patients.

Cancer mortality and asbestos deposits.

Asbestos deposits are found in many parts of the United States. In this paper the question is asked: Is there an increase in risk from cancer associated with naturally-occurring asbestos? In an attempt to control for the urban effect, geographic gradient and socioeconomic class, each county in the United States with asbestos deposits was matched for percent of area that was urban and for median years in school with two nearby counties that did not have known asbestos deposits. The study of cancer mortality rates in these matched counties provides no evidence that naturally-occurring asbestos is a great hazard to the general population of counties with asbestos depostis.