ABSTRACT
This study aimed at estimating, in a prospective scenario, the potential economic impact of a possible epidemic of WNV infection in Belgium, based on 2012 values for the equine and human health sectors, in order to increase preparedness and help decision-makers. Modelling of risk areas, based on the habitat suitable for Culex pipiens, the main vector of the virus, allowed us to determine equine and human populations at risk. Characteristics of the different clinical forms of the disease based on past epidemics in Europe allowed morbidity among horses and humans to be estimated. The main costs for the equine sector were vaccination and replacement value of dead or euthanised horses. The choice of the vaccination strategy would have important consequences in terms of cost. Vaccination of the country's whole population of horses, based on a worst-case scenario, would cost more than EUR 30 million; for areas at risk, the cost would be around EUR 16-17 million. Regarding the impact on human health, short-term costs and socio-economic losses were estimated for patients who developed the neuroinvasive form of the disease, as no vaccine is available yet for humans. Hospital charges of around EUR 3,600 for a case of West Nile neuroinvasive disease and EUR 4,500 for a case of acute flaccid paralysis would be the major financial consequence of an epidemic of West Nile virus infection in humans in Belgium.
Subject(s)
Disease Outbreaks/economics , Epidemics , Horse Diseases/economics , West Nile Fever/epidemiology , West Nile virus/isolation & purification , Animal Husbandry/economics , Animals , Belgium/epidemiology , Culex/virology , Disease Outbreaks/veterinary , Female , Horse Diseases/epidemiology , Horse Diseases/virology , Horses , Humans , Male , Prospective Studies , Vaccination/economics , West Nile Fever/economics , West Nile Fever/veterinaryABSTRACT
To prioritize 100 animal diseases and zoonoses in Europe, we used a multicriteria decision-making procedure based on opinions of experts and evidence-based data. Forty international experts performed intracategory and intercategory weighting of 57 prioritization criteria. Two methods (deterministic with mean of each weight and probabilistic with distribution functions of weights by using Monte Carlo simulation) were used to calculate a score for each disease. Consecutive ranking was established. Few differences were observed between each method. Compared with previous prioritization methods, our procedure is evidence based, includes a range of fields and criteria while considering uncertainty, and will be useful for analyzing diseases that affect public health.