ESTIpop: a computational tool to simulate and estimate parameters for continuous-time Markov branching processes.

SUMMARY: ESTIpop is an R package designed to simulate and estimate parameters for continuous-time Markov branching processes with constant or time-dependent rates, a common model for asexually reproducing cell populations. Analytical approaches to parameter estimation quickly become intractable in complex branching processes. In ESTIpop, parameter estimation is based on a likelihood function with respect to a time series of cell counts, approximated by the Central Limit Theorem for multitype branching processes. Additionally, simulation in ESTIpop via approximation can be performed many times faster than exact simulation methods with similar results. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: ESTIpop is available as an R package on Github (https://github.com/michorlab/estipop). SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

DIFFpop: a stochastic computational approach to simulate differentiation hierarchies with single cell barcoding.

SUMMARY: DIFFpop is an R package designed to simulate cellular differentiation hierarchies using either exponentially-expanding or fixed population sizes. The software includes functionalities to simulate clonal evolution due to the emergence of driver mutations under the infinite-allele assumption as well as options for simulation and analysis of single cell barcoding and labeling data. The software uses the Gillespie Stochastic Simulation Algorithm and a modification of expanding or fixed-size stochastic process models expanded to a large number of cell types and scenarios. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: DIFFpop is available as an R-package along with vignettes on Github (https://github.com/ferlicjl/diffpop). SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Computational Model of Progression to Multiple Myeloma Identifies Optimum Screening Strategies.

PURPOSE: Recent advances have uncovered therapeutic interventions that might reduce the risk of progression of premalignant diagnoses, such as monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) to multiple myeloma (MM). It remains unclear how to best screen populations at risk and how to evaluate the ability of these interventions to reduce disease prevalence and mortality at the population level. To address these questions, we developed a computational modeling framework. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used individual-based computational modeling of MGUS incidence and progression across a population of diverse individuals to determine best screening strategies in terms of screening start, intervals, and risk-group specificity. Inputs were life tables, MGUS incidence, and baseline MM survival. We measured MM-specific mortality and MM prevalence after MGUS detection from simulations and mathematic modeling predictions. RESULTS: Our framework is applicable to a wide spectrum of screening and intervention scenarios, including variation of the baseline MGUS to MM progression rate and evolving MGUS, in which progression increases over time. Given the currently available point estimate of progression risk reduction to 61% risk, starting screening at age 55 years and performing follow-up screening every 6 years reduced total MM prevalence by 19%. The same reduction could be achieved with starting screening at age 65 years and performing follow-up screening every 2 years. A 40% progression risk reduction per patient with MGUS per year would reduce MM-specific mortality by 40%. Specifically, screening onset age and screening frequency can change disease prevalence, and progression risk reduction changes both prevalence and disease-specific mortality. Screening would generally be favorable in high-risk individuals. CONCLUSION: Screening efforts should focus on specifically identified groups with high lifetime risk of MGUS, for which screening benefits can be significant. Screening low-risk individuals with MGUS would require improved preventions.