Derivation and independent validation of kidneyintelX.dkd: A prognostic test for the assessment of diabetic kidney disease progression.

AIMS: To develop and validate an updated version of KidneyIntelX (kidneyintelX.dkd) to stratify patients for risk of progression of diabetic kidney disease (DKD) stages 1 to 3, to simplify the test for clinical adoption and support an application to the US Food and Drug Administration regulatory pathway. METHODS: We used plasma biomarkers and clinical data from the Penn Medicine Biobank (PMBB) for training, and independent cohorts (BioMe and CANVAS) for validation. The primary outcome was progressive decline in kidney function (PDKF), defined by a ≥40% sustained decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate or end-stage kidney disease within 5 years of follow-up. RESULTS: In 573 PMBB participants with DKD, 15.4% experienced PDKF over a median of 3.7 years. We trained a random forest model using biomarkers and clinical variables. Among 657 BioMe participants and 1197 CANVAS participants, 11.7% and 7.5%, respectively, experienced PDKF. Based on training cut-offs, 57%, 35% and 8% of BioMe participants, and 56%, 38% and 6% of CANVAS participants were classified as having low-, moderate- and high-risk levels, respectively. The cumulative incidence at these risk levels was 5.9%, 21.2% and 66.9% in BioMe and 6.7%, 13.1% and 59.6% in CANVAS. After clinical risk factor adjustment, the adjusted hazard ratios were 7.7 (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.0-19.6) and 3.7 (95% CI 2.0-6.8) in BioMe, and 5.4 (95% CI 2.5-11.9) and 2.3 (95% CI 1.4-3.9) in CANVAS, for high- versus low-risk and moderate- versus low-risk levels, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Using two independent cohorts and a clinical trial population, we validated an updated KidneyIntelX test (named kidneyintelX.dkd), which significantly enhanced risk stratification in patients with DKD for PDKF, independently from known risk factors for progression.

Clinical Utility of KidneyIntelX in Early Stages of Diabetic Kidney Disease in the CANVAS Trial.

INTRODUCTION: KidneyIntelX is a composite risk score, incorporating biomarkers and clinical variables for predicting progression of diabetic kidney disease (DKD). The utility of this score in the context of sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors and how changes in the risk score associate with future kidney outcomes are unknown. METHODS: We measured soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor (TNFR)-1, soluble TNFR-2, and kidney injury molecule 1 on banked samples from CANagliflozin cardioVascular Assessment Study (CANVAS) trial participants with baseline DKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] 30-59 mL/min/1.73 m2 or urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio [UACR] ≥30 mg/g) and generated KidneyIntelX risk scores at baseline and years 1, 3, and 6. We assessed the association of baseline and changes in KidneyIntelX with subsequent DKD progression (composite outcome of an eGFR decline of ≥5 mL/min/year [using the 6-week eGFR as the baseline in the canagliflozin group], ≥40% sustained decline in the eGFR, or kidney failure). RESULTS: We included 1,325 CANVAS participants with concurrent DKD and available baseline plasma samples (mean eGFR 65 mL/min/1.73 m2 and median UACR 56 mg/g). During a mean follow-up of 5.6 years, 131 participants (9.9%) experienced the composite kidney outcome. Using risk cutoffs from prior validation studies, KidneyIntelX stratified patients to low- (42%), intermediate- (44%), and high-risk (15%) strata with cumulative incidence for the outcome of 3%, 11%, and 26% (risk ratio 8.4; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.0, 14.2) for the high-risk versus low-risk groups. The differences in eGFR slopes for canagliflozin versus placebo were 0.66, 1.52, and 2.16 mL/min/1.73 m2 in low, intermediate, and high KidneyIntelX risk strata, respectively. KidneyIntelX risk scores declined by 5.4% (95% CI: -6.9, -3.9) in the canagliflozin arm at year 1 versus an increase of 6.3% (95% CI: 3.8, 8.7) in the placebo arm (p < 0.001). Changes in the KidneyIntelX score at year 1 were associated with future risk of the composite outcome (odds ratio per 10 unit decrease 0.80; 95% CI: 0.77, 0.83; p < 0.001) after accounting for the treatment arm, without evidence of effect modification by the baseline KidneyIntelX risk stratum or by the treatment arm. CONCLUSIONS: KidneyIntelX successfully risk-stratified a large multinational external cohort for progression of DKD, and greater numerical differences in the eGFR slope for canagliflozin versus placebo were observed in those with higher baseline KidneyIntelX scores. Canagliflozin treatment reduced KidneyIntelX risk scores over time and changes in the KidneyIntelX score from baseline to 1 year associated with future risk of DKD progression, independent of the baseline risk score and treatment arm.

Derivation and validation of a machine learning risk score using biomarker and electronic patient data to predict progression of diabetic kidney disease.

AIM: Predicting progression in diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is critical to improving outcomes. We sought to develop/validate a machine-learned, prognostic risk score (KidneyIntelX™) combining electronic health records (EHR) and biomarkers. METHODS: This is an observational cohort study of patients with prevalent DKD/banked plasma from two EHR-linked biobanks. A random forest model was trained, and performance (AUC, positive and negative predictive values [PPV/NPV], and net reclassification index [NRI]) was compared with that of a clinical model and Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) categories for predicting a composite outcome of eGFR decline of ≥5 ml/min per year, ≥40% sustained decline, or kidney failure within 5 years. RESULTS: In 1146 patients, the median age was 63 years, 51% were female, the baseline eGFR was 54 ml min-1 [1.73 m]-2, the urine albumin to creatinine ratio (uACR) was 6.9 mg/mmol, follow-up was 4.3 years and 21% had the composite endpoint. On cross-validation in derivation (n = 686), KidneyIntelX had an AUC of 0.77 (95% CI 0.74, 0.79). In validation (n = 460), the AUC was 0.77 (95% CI 0.76, 0.79). By comparison, the AUC for the clinical model was 0.62 (95% CI 0.61, 0.63) in derivation and 0.61 (95% CI 0.60, 0.63) in validation. Using derivation cut-offs, KidneyIntelX stratified 46%, 37% and 17% of the validation cohort into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups for the composite kidney endpoint, respectively. The PPV for progressive decline in kidney function in the high-risk group was 61% for KidneyIntelX vs 40% for the highest risk strata by KDIGO categorisation (p < 0.001). Only 10% of those scored as low risk by KidneyIntelX experienced progression (i.e., NPV of 90%). The NRIevent for the high-risk group was 41% (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: KidneyIntelX improved prediction of kidney outcomes over KDIGO and clinical models in individuals with early stages of DKD.

Analytical validation of a multi-biomarker algorithmic test for prediction of progressive kidney function decline in patients with early-stage kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: The KidneyIntelX™ test applies a machine learning algorithm that incorporates plasma biomarkers and clinical variables to produce a composite risk score to predict a progressive decline in kidney function in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and early-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD). The following studies describe the analytical validation of the KidneyIntelX assay including impact of observed methodologic variability on the composite risk score. METHODS: Analytical performance studies of sensitivity, precision, and linearity were performed on three biomarkers assayed in multiplexed format: kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1), soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 (sTNFR-1) and soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-2 (sTNFR-2) based on Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) guidelines. Analytical variability across twenty (20) experiments across multiple days, operators, and reagent lots was assessed to examine the impact on the reproducibility of the composite risk score. Analysis of cross-reactivity and interfering substances was also performed. RESULTS: Assays for KIM-1, sTNFR-1 and sTNFR-2 demonstrated acceptable sensitivity. Mean within-laboratory imprecision coefficient of variation (CV) was established as less than 9% across all assays in a multi-lot study. The linear range of the assays was determined as 12-5807 pg/mL, 969-23,806 pg/mL and 4256-68,087 pg/mL for KIM-1, sTNFR-1 and sTNFR-2, respectively. The average risk score CV% was less than 5%, with 98% concordance observed for assignment of risk categories. Cross-reactivity between critical assay components in a multiplexed format did not exceed 1.1%. CONCLUSIONS: The set of analytical validation studies demonstrated robust analytical performance across all three biomarkers contributing to the KidneyIntelX risk score, meeting or exceeding specifications established during characterization studies. Notably, reproducibility of the composite risk score demonstrated that expected analytical laboratory variation did not impact the assigned risk category, and therefore, the clinical validity of the reported results.

A Real-World Precision Medicine Program Including the KidneyIntelX Test Effectively Changes Management Decisions and Outcomes for Patients With Early-Stage Diabetic Kidney Disease.

INTRODUCTION/OBJECTIVE: The KidneyIntelX is a multiplex, bioprognostic, immunoassay consisting of 3 plasma biomarkers and clinical variables that uses machine learning to predict a patient's risk for a progressive decline in kidney function over 5 years. We report the 1-year pre- and post-test clinical impact on care management, eGFR slope, and A1C along with engagement of population health clinical pharmacists and patient coordinators to promote a program of sustainable kidney, metabolic, and cardiac health. METHODS: The KidneyIntelX in vitro prognostic test was previously validated for patients with type 2 diabetes and diabetic kidney disease (DKD) to predict kidney function decline within 5 years was introduced into the RWE study (NCT04802395) across the Health System as part of a population health chronic disease management program from [November 2020 to April 2023]. Pre- and post-test patients with a minimum of 12 months of follow-up post KidneyIntelX were assessed across all aspects of the program. RESULTS: A total of 5348 patients with DKD had a KidneyIntelX assay. The median age was 68 years old, 52% were female, 27% self-identified as Black, and 89% had hypertension. The median baseline eGFR was 62 ml/min/1.73 m2, urine albumin-creatinine ratio was 54 mg/g, and A1C was 7.3%. The KidneyIntelX risk level was low in 49%, intermediate in 40%, and high in 11% of cases. New prescriptions for SGLT2i, GLP-1 RA, or referral to a specialist were noted in 19%, 33%, and 43% among low-, intermediate-, and high-risk patients, respectively. The median A1C decreased from 8.2% pre-test to 7.5% post-test in the high-risk group (P < .001). UACR levels in the intermediate-risk patients with albuminuria were reduced by 20%, and in a subgroup treated with new scripts for SGLT2i, UACR levels were lowered by approximately 50%. The median eGFR slope improved from -7.08 ml/min/1.73 m2/year to -4.27 ml/min/1.73 m2/year in high-risk patients (P = .0003), -2.65 to -1.04 in intermediate risk, and -3.26 ml/min/1.73 m2/year to +0.45 ml/min/1.73 m2/year in patients with low-risk (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Deployment and risk stratification by KidneyIntelX was associated with an escalation in action taken to optimize cardio-kidney-metabolic health including medications and specialist referrals. Glycemic control and kidney function trajectories improved post-KidneyIntelX testing, with the greatest improvements observed in those scored as high-risk.

Real World Evidence and Clinical Utility of KidneyIntelX on Patients With Early-Stage Diabetic Kidney Disease: Interim Results on Decision Impact and Outcomes.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE: The lack of precision to identify patients with early-stage diabetic kidney disease (DKD) at near-term risk for progressive decline in kidney function results in poor disease management often leading to kidney failure requiring unplanned dialysis. The KidneyIntelX is a multiplex, bioprognostic, immunoassay consisting of 3 plasma biomarkers and clinical variables that uses machine learning to generate a risk score for progressive decline in kidney function over 5-year in adults with early-stage DKD. Our objective was to assess the impact of KidneyIntelX on management and outcomes in a Health System in the real-world evidence (RWE) study. METHODS: KidneyIntelX was introduced into a large metropolitan Health System via a population health-defined approved care pathway for patients with stages 1 to 3 DKD between [November 2020 to March 2022]. Decision impact on visit frequency, medication management, specialist referral, and selected lab values was assessed. We performed an interim analysis in patients through 6-months post-test date to evaluate the impact of risk level with clinical decision-making and outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 1686 patients were enrolled in the RWE study and underwent KidneyIntelX testing and subsequent care pathway management. The median age was 68 years, 52% were female, 26% self-identified as Black, and 94% had hypertension. The median baseline eGFR was 59 ml/minute/1.73 m2, urine albumin-creatinine ratio was 69 mg/g, and HbA1c was 7.7%. After testing, a clinical encounter in the first month occurred in 13%, 43%, and 53% of low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk patients, respectively and 46%, 61%, and 71% had at least 1 action taken within the first 6 months. High-risk patients were more likely to be placed on SGLT2 inhibitors (OR = 4.56; 95% CI 3.00-6.91 vs low-risk), and more likely to be referred to a specialist such as a nephrologist, endocrinologist, or dietician (OR = 2.49; 95% CI 1.53-4.01) compared to low-risk patients. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of KidneyIntelX, clinical guidelines and educational support resulted in changes in clinical management by clinicians. After testing, there was an increase in visit frequency, referrals for disease management, and introduction to guideline-recommended medications. These differed by risk category, indicating an impact of KidneyIntelX risk stratification on clinical care.

A Post Hoc Analysis of KidneyIntelX and Cardiorenal Outcomes in Diabetic Kidney Disease.

KidneyIntelX, a bioprognostic test for assessing risk of CKD progression, risk stratified individuals for kidney, heart failure, and death outcomes in the Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study.Individuals scored as high risk seemed to derive more of benefit from treatment with canagliflozin versus placebo.These findings may serve to increase adoption of underutilized therapies for cardiorenal risk reduction in patients with diabetic kidney disease.

Initial Validation of a Machine Learning-Derived Prognostic Test (KidneyIntelX) Integrating Biomarkers and Electronic Health Record Data To Predict Longitudinal Kidney Outcomes.

Background: Individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) or the apolipoprotein L1 high-risk (APOL1-HR) genotypes are at increased risk of rapid kidney function decline (RKFD) and kidney failure. We hypothesized that a prognostic test using machine learning integrating blood biomarkers and longitudinal electronic health record (EHR) data would improve risk stratification. Methods: We selected two cohorts from the Mount Sinai BioMe Biobank: T2D (n=871) and African ancestry with APOL1-HR (n=498). We measured plasma tumor necrosis factor receptors (TNFR) 1 and 2 and kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1) and used random forest algorithms to integrate biomarker and EHR data to generate a risk score for a composite outcome: RKFD (eGFR decline of ≥5 ml/min per year), or 40% sustained eGFR decline, or kidney failure. We compared performance to a validated clinical model and applied thresholds to assess the utility of the prognostic test (KidneyIntelX) to accurately stratify patients into risk categories. Results: Overall, 23% of those with T2D and 18% of those with APOL1-HR experienced the composite kidney end point over a median follow-up of 4.6 and 5.9 years, respectively. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of KidneyIntelX was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.79) in T2D, and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.77 to 0.83) in APOL1-HR, outperforming the clinical models (AUC, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.65 to 0.67] and 0.72 [95% CI, 0.71 to 0.73], respectively; P<0.001). The positive predictive values for KidneyIntelX were 62% and 62% versus 46% and 39% for the clinical models (P<0.01) in high-risk (top 15%) stratum for T2D and APOL1-HR, respectively. The negative predictive values for KidneyIntelX were 92% in T2D and 96% for APOL1-HR versus 85% and 93% for the clinical model, respectively (P=0.76 and 0.93, respectively), in low-risk stratum (bottom 50%). Conclusions: In patients with T2D or APOL1-HR, a prognostic test (KidneyIntelX) integrating biomarker levels with longitudinal EHR data significantly improved prediction of a composite kidney end point of RKFD, 40% decline in eGFR, or kidney failure over validated clinical models.

The Alps and the imagination.

In the late 19th century, mountaineer and essayist Sir Leslie Stephen wrote that the Alps were "Europe's Playground." His words were prescient: the Alps are today one of the continent's most valued recreation areas. However, the importance of Stephen's words can only be appreciated when set in historical context. One hundred years earlier, his remark would have been laughed at. Until the late 18th century the Alps were a source of fear to travellers and of mystery to scientists. They were an uncharted wilderness at the heart of the world's most crowded continent. Yet, within a remarkably short space of time, they were mapped, developed and exploited. Their current status as "playground" is bound intrinsically to a shift in imagination, beginning in the 16th century and accelerating dramatically between the years 1800 and 1914, that has transformed them, in popular perception, from a realm of terror and superstition to one of beauty, relaxation and contemplation. Driven by fresh perspectives in the fields of science, music, literature and aesthetics, the metamorphosis has affected our appreciation not only of the Alps but of every mountain range in the world.