Prognostic scores for ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients predict graft loss and mortality in recurrent primary biliary cholangitis after liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recurrent primary biliary cholangitis (rPBC) develops in approximately 30% of patients and negatively impacts graft and overall patient survival after liver transplantation (LT). There is a lack of data regarding the response rate to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in rPBC. We evaluated a large, international, multi-center cohort to assess the performance of PBC scores in predicting the risk of graft and overall survival after LT in patients with rPBC. METHODS: A total of 332 patients with rPBC after LT were evaluated from 28 centers across Europe, North and South America. The median age at the time of rPBC was 58.0 years [IQR 53.2-62.6], and 298 patients (90%) were female. The biochemical response was measured with serum levels of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and bilirubin, and Paris-2, GLOBE and UK-PBC scores at 1 year after UDCA initiation. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 8.7 years [IQR 4.3-12.9] after rPBC diagnosis, 52 patients (16%) had graft loss and 103 (31%) died. After 1 year of UDCA initiation the histological stage at rPBC (hazard ratio [HR] 3.97, 95% CI 1.36-11.55, p = 0.01), use of prednisone (HR 3.18, 95% CI 1.04-9.73, p = 0.04), ALP xULN (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.26-2.01, p <0.001), Paris-2 criteria (HR 4.14, 95% CI 1.57-10.92, p = 0.004), GLOBE score (HR 2.82, 95% CI 1.71-4.66, p <0.001), and the UK-PBC score (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.03-1.09, p <0.001) were associated with graft survival in the multivariate analysis. Similar results were observed for overall survival. CONCLUSION: Patients with rPBC and disease activity, as indicated by standard PBC risk scores, have impaired outcomes, supporting efforts to treat recurrent disease in similar ways to pre-transplant PBC. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: One in three people who undergo liver transplantation for primary biliary cholangitis develop recurrent disease in their new liver. Patients with recurrent primary biliary cholangitis and incomplete response to ursodeoxycholic acid, according to conventional prognostic scores, have worse clinical outcomes, with higher risk of graft loss and mortality in similar ways to the disease before liver transplantation. Our results supportsupport efforts to treat recurrent disease in similar ways to pre-transplant primary biliary cholangitis.

Development and Validation of a Scoring System to Predict Response to Obeticholic Acid in Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Obeticholic acid (OCA) is the only licensed second-line therapy for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). With novel therapeutics in advanced development, clinical tools are needed to tailor the treatment algorithm. We aimed to derive and externally validate the OCA response score (ORS) for predicting the response probability of individuals with PBC to OCA. METHODS: We used data from the Italian RECAPITULATE (N = 441) and the IBER-PBC (N = 244) OCA real-world prospective cohorts to derive/validate a score including widely available variables obtained either pre-treatment (ORS) or also after 6 months of treatment (ORS+). Multivariable Cox regressions with backward selection were applied to obtain parsimonious predictive models. The predicted outcomes were biochemical response according to POISE (alkaline phosphatase [ALP]/upper limit of normal [ULN]<1.67 with a reduction of at least 15%, and normal bilirubin), or ALP/ULN<1.67, or normal range criteria (NR: normal ALP, alanine aminotransferase [ALT], and bilirubin) up to 24 months. RESULTS: Depending on the response criteria, ORS included age, pruritus, cirrhosis, ALP/ULN, ALT/ULN, GGT/ULN, and bilirubin. ORS+ also included ALP/ULN and bilirubin after 6 months of OCA therapy. Internally validated c-statistics for ORS were 0.75, 0.78, and 0.72 for POISE, ALP/ULN<1.67, and NR response, which raised to 0.83, 0.88, and 0.81 with ORS+, respectively. The respective performances in validation were 0.70, 0.72, and 0.71 for ORS and 0.80, 0.84, and 0.78 for ORS+. Results were consistent across groups with mild/severe disease. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and externally validated a scoring system capable to predict OCA response according to different criteria. This tool will enhance a stratified second-line therapy model to streamline standard care and trial delivery in PBC.

Dynamics of Liver Stiffness Measurement and Clinical Course of Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), static liver stiffness measurement (LSM) has proven prognostic value. However, the added prognostic value of LSM time course in this disease remains uncertain. METHODS: We conducted an international retrospective cohort study among patients with PBC treated with ursodeoxycholic acid and followed by vibration-controlled transient elastography between 2003 and 2022. Using joint modeling, the association of LSM trajectory and the incidence of serious clinical events (SCE), defined as cirrhosis complications, liver transplantation, or death, was quantified using the hazard ratio and its confidence interval. RESULTS: A total of 6362 LSMs were performed in 3078 patients (2007 on ursodeoxycholic acid alone; 13% with cirrhosis), in whom 316 SCE occurred over 14,445 person-years (median follow-up, 4.2 years; incidence rate, 21.9 per 1000 person-years). LSM progressed in 59% of patients (mean, 0.39 kPa/year). After adjusting for prognostic factors at baseline, including LSM, any relative change in LSM was associated with a significant variation in SCE risk (P < .001). For example, the adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) associated with a 20% annual variation in LSM were 2.13 (1.89-2.45) for the increase and 0.40 (0.33-0.46) for the decrease. The association between LSM trajectory and SCE risk persisted regardless of treatment response or duration, when patients with cirrhosis were excluded, and when only death or liver transplantation was considered. CONCLUSIONS: Tracking longitudinal changes in LSM using vibration-controlled transient elastography provides valuable insights into PBC prognosis, offering a robust predictive measure for the risk of SCE. LSM could be used as a clinically relevant surrogate end point in PBC clinical trials.

Current Perspectives on the Molecular and Clinical Relationships between Primary Biliary Cholangitis and Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is an autoimmune liver disease characterised by the immune-mediated destruction of small and medium intrahepatic bile ducts, with variable outcomes and progression. This review summarises the state of the art regarding the risk of neoplastic progression in PBC patients, with a particular focus on the molecular alterations present in PBC and in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which is the most frequent liver cancer in these patients. Major risk factors are male gender, viral infections, e.g., HBV and HCV, non-response to UDCA, and high alcohol intake, as well as some metabolic-associated factors. Overall, HCC development is significantly more frequent in patients with advanced histological stages, being related to liver cirrhosis. It seems to be of fundamental importance to unravel eventual dysfunctional molecular pathways in PBC patients that may be used as biomarkers for HCC development. In the near future, this will possibly take advantage of artificial intelligence-designed algorithms.

Are Gender Differences Important for Autoimmune Liver Diseases?

Gender Medicine has had an enormous expansion over the last ten years. Autoimmune liver diseases include several conditions, i.e., autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), and conditions involving the liver or biliary tree overlapping with AIH, as well as IgG4-related disease. However, little is known about the impact of sex in the pathogenesis and natural history of these conditions. The purpose of this review is to provide an update of the gender disparities among the autoimmune liver diseases by reviewing the data published from 1999 to 2023. The epidemiology of these diseases has been changing over the last years, due to the amelioration of knowledge in their diagnosis, pathogenesis, and treatment. The clinical data collected so far support the existence of sex differences in the natural history of autoimmune liver diseases. Notably, their history could be longer than that which is now known, with problems being initiated even at a pediatric age. Moreover, gender disparity has been observed during the onset of complications related to end-stage liver disease, including cancer incidence. However, there is still an important debate among researchers about the impact of sex and the pathogenesis of these conditions. With this review, we would like to emphasize the urgency of basic science and clinical research to increase our understanding of the sex differences in autoimmune liver diseases.

Risk Factors for Recurrence of Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis after Liver Transplantation: Single-Center Data.

BACKGROUND: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), comprising 5-15% of European liver transplantation (LT) cases, poses a significant challenge due to the risk of post-transplant disease recurrence (rPSC). This single-center study aimed to determine the rPSC rate and long-term post-LT outcomes in PSC patients and to identify potentially modifiable risk factors of rPSC. METHODS: All PSC patients receiving LT at Padua Hospital from 1993 to 2021 were included. Recipient data were collected pre-LT, at LT, and during the follow-up. Donor and LT features were recorded. The rPSC rate was assessed according to Mayo Clinic criteria. Patient and graft survival were reported. RESULTS: Thirty-three patients were included. The main indication of LT was decompensated cirrhosis (70%). Nine patients (27%) developed rPSC during a median follow-up of 59 months (45-72). A longer cold ischemia time (p = 0.026), donor female gender (p = 0.049), inflammatory bowel disease reactivation (IBD) post LT (p = 0.005) and hepaticojejunostomy (p = 0.019) were associated with a higher risk of rPSC. Graft and patient survival at 1, 5 and 10 years post LT, 94%, 86%, 74% and 97%, 89%, 77% respectively, were not affected by rPSC development. CONCLUSION: Specific donor and surgical features might increase the risk of rPSC. Identifying predictive factors for rPSC to prevent graft loss is challenging but could lead to a more personalized organ allocation and follow-up in PSC transplanted patients. IBD reactivation might have a pathogenic role in rPSC. In our single-center experience, rPSC did not affect patient and graft survival.