Understanding and Addressing Widening Racial Inequalities in Drug Overdose.

The fourth wave of the United States overdose crisis-driven by the polysubstance use of fentanyl with stimulants and other synthetic substances-has driven sharply escalating racial/ethnic inequalities in drug overdose death rates. Here the authors present a detailed portrait of the latest overdose trends and synthesize the literature to describe where, how, and why these inequalities are worsening. By 2022 overdose deaths among Native and Black Americans rose to 1.8 and 1.4 times the rate seen among White Americans, respectively. This reflects that Black and Native Americans have been disproportionately affected by fentanyl and the combination of fentanyl and stimulants at the national level and in virtually every state. The highest overdose deaths rates are currently seen among Black Americans 55-64 years of age as well as younger cohorts of Native Americans 25-44 years of age. In 2022-the latest year of data available-deaths among White Americans decreased relative to 2021, whereas rates among all other groups assessed continued to rise. Moving forward, Fundamental Cause Theory shows us a relevant universal truth of implementation science: in socially unequal societies, new technologies typically end up favoring more privileged groups first, thereby widening inequalities unless underlying social inequalities are addressed. Therefore, interventions designed to reduce addiction and overdose death rates that are not explicitly designed to also improve racial/ethnic inequalities will often unintentionally end up worsening them. Well-funded community-based programs, with Black and Native leadership, providing harm reduction resources, naloxone, and medications for opioid use disorder in the context of comprehensive, culturally appropriate healthcare and other services, represent the highest priority interventions to decrease inequalities.

Drug overdose mortality rates by educational attainment and sex for adults aged 25-64 in the United States before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, 2015-2021.

INTRODUCTION: Dramatic increases in U.S. drug overdose deaths involving synthetic opioids, especially fentanyl, beginning around 2014 have driven a marked progression in overall drug overdose deaths in the U.S., which sharply rose to unprecedented levels amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Disparities in drug overdose deaths by educational attainment (EA) during the fentanyl era of the drug overdose epidemic and its intersection with the COVID-19 pandemic have not been widely scrutinized. METHODS: Utilizing restricted-use mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System and population estimates from the American Community Survey, we estimated annual national age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) from drug overdoses jointly stratified by EA and sex for adults aged 25-64 from 2015 to 2021. State-level AAMRs in 2015 and 2021 were also estimated to examine the geographic variation in the cumulative evolution of EA-related disparities over the course of the analysis period. RESULTS: Nationally, AAMRs rose fastest among persons with at most a high school-level education, whereas little to no change was observed for bachelor's degree holders, widening pre-existing disparities. During the analysis period, the difference in national AAMRs between persons with at most a high school-level education and bachelor's degree holders increased from less than 8-fold (2015) to approximately 13-fold (2021). The national widening of EA-related disparities accelerated amid the COVID-19 pandemic, and they widened in nearly every state. Among non-bachelor's degree holders, national AAMRs increased markedly faster for males. CONCLUSIONS: The widening disparities in drug overdose deaths by EA are a likely indicator of a rapidly increasing socioeconomic divide in drug overdose mortality more broadly. Policy strategies should address upstream socioeconomic drivers of drug use and overdose, particularly among males.

Leveraging pooled medical examiner records to surveil complex and emerging patterns of polysubstance use in the United States.

BACKGROUND: The United States (US) is an extreme global outlier for drug-related death rates. However, data describing drug-related deaths are generally available only on an 8-13-month lag. Furthermore, granular details about substance-involvement are often not available, which particularly stymies efforts to track fatal polysubstance and novel psychoactive substance use. Detailed medical examiner records provide a powerful source of information for drug-related death surveillance, but have been underutilized. METHODS: We pooled medical examiner data from five US states and 14 counties that together comprise 18% of the US population to examine demographic, geographic, and drug-specific trends in polysubstance drug-related deaths. We employed mixed effects logistic regression to identify demographic factors associated with polysubstance rather than single substance drug-related deaths. We assessed the correlations between drug classes and described geographic variation in the prevalence of specific drugs and the presence of novel and emerging psychoactive substances. RESULTS: Our sample included 73,077 drug-related deaths from 2012 through early 2022. Nearly two-thirds of drug-related deaths were polysubstance-involved, with the number and percentage growing annually. High percentages of polysubstance drug-related deaths were observed in both urban and rural jurisdictions. After adjusting for year and jurisdiction, female, American Indian and Alaska Native, and White individuals had the most elevated odds of polysubstance drug-related deaths. Drug-related deaths involving benzodiazepines or opioids, whether pharmaceutical or illicit, and other pharmaceutical drugs were most likely to have polysubstance involvement, while methamphetamine-involved deaths were least likely to involve multiple substances. Strong correlations were observed between prescription opioids and prescription benzodiazepines, fentanyl and xylazine, and designer benzodiazepines and novel synthetic opioids. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of detailed medical examiner records reveals the breadth and complexity of polysubstance drug-related deaths in the US. Future efforts to use this unique resource can improve population-based surveillance of drug-related deaths to better tailor interventions and solutions to this critical health crisis.

Changes in injecting versus smoking heroin, fentanyl, and methamphetamine among people who inject drugs in San Diego, California, 2020-2023.

BACKGROUND: Amidst an increasingly toxic drug supply in North America, people who inject drugs may be transitioning to smoking them. We aimed to assess changes in injecting and smoking opioids and methamphetamine among a cohort of people who inject drugs from San Diego, California. METHODS: Over five six-month periods spanning October 2020-April 2023, we assessed prevalence of injecting and smoking opioids or methamphetamine and whether participants used these drugs more frequently by smoking than injecting. Multivariable Poisson regression via generalized estimating equations was used to examine time trends. RESULTS: Of 362 participants, median age was 40 years; a minority were female (29%), Hispanic/Latinx/Mexican (45%), and housed (33%). Among this cohort, of whom 100% injected (and 84% injected and smoked) in period one (October 2020-April 2021), by period five (November 2022-April 2023), 34% only smoked, 59% injected and smoked, and 7% only injected. By period five, the adjusted relative risk (aRR) of injecting opioids was 0.41 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.33, 0.51) and the aRR for injecting methamphetamine was 0.50 (95% CI: 0.39, 0.63) compared to period one. Risks for smoking fentanyl rose significantly during period three (aRR=1.44, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.94), four (aRR=1.65, 95% CI: 1.24, 2.20) and five (aRR=1.90, 95% CI: 1.43, 2.53) compared to period one. Risks for smoking heroin and methamphetamine more frequently than injecting these drugs increased across all periods. CONCLUSIONS: Opioid and methamphetamine injection declined precipitously, with notable increases in smoking these drugs. Research is needed to understand the health consequences of these trends.

Changes in injecting versus smoking heroin, fentanyl, and methamphetamine among people who inject drugs in San Diego, California, 2020 to 2023.

Background: Amidst a rapidly evolving drug supply in North America, people who inject drugs may be transitioning to smoking them. We aimed to assess changes in injecting and smoking heroin, fentanyl and methamphetamine among a cohort of people who injected drugs at baseline from San Diego, California. Methods: Over five six-month periods spanning October 2020-April 2023, we assessed prevalence of injecting and smoking opioids or methamphetamine and whether participants used these drugs more frequently by smoking than injecting. Multivariable Poisson regression via Generalized Estimating Equations was used to examine time trends. Results: Of 362 participants, median age was 40 years; most were male (72%), non-Hispanic (55%), and unhoused (67%). Among this cohort, of whom 100% injected (or injected and smoked) at baseline, by period five (two years later), 34% reported only smoking, while 59% injected and smoked, and 7% only injected. By period five, the adjusted relative risk (aRR) of injecting opioids was 0.41 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.33, 0.51) compared to period one, and the aRR for injecting methamphetamine was 0.50 (95% CI: 0.39, 0.63). Compared to period one, risks for smoking fentanyl rose significantly during period three (aRR=1.44, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.94), four (aRR=1.65, 95% CI: 1.24, 2.20) and five (aRR=1.90, 95% CI: 1.43, 2.53). Risks for smoking heroin and methamphetamine more frequently than injecting these drugs increased across all periods. Conclusions: Opioid and methamphetamine injection declined precipitously, with notable increases in smoking these drugs. Research is urgently needed to understand the health consequences of these trends.

Global Assessment of Palliative Care Need: Serious Health-Related Suffering Measurement Methodology.

CONTEXT: Inequities and gaps in palliative care access are a serious impediment to health systems especially in low- and middle-income countries and the accurate measurement of need across health conditions is a critical step to understanding and addressing the issue. Serious Health-related Suffering (SHS) is a novel methodology to measure the palliative care need and was originally developed by The Lancet Commission on Global Access to Palliative Care and Pain Relief. In 2015, the first iteration - SHS 1.0 - was estimated at over 61 million people worldwide experiencing at least 6 billion days of SHS annually as a result of life-limiting and life-threatening conditions. OBJECTIVES: In this paper, an updated methodology - SHS 2.0 - is presented building on the work of the Lancet Commission and detailing calculations, data requirements, limitations, and assumptions. METHODS AND RESULTS: The updates to the original methodology focus on measuring the number of people who die with (decedents) or live with (non-decedents) SHS in a given year to assess the number of people in need of palliative care across health conditions and populations. Detail on the methodology for measuring the number of days of SHS that was pioneered by the Lancet Commission, is also shared, as this second measure is essential for determining the health system responses that are necessary to address palliative care need and must be a priority for future methodological work on SHS. CONCLUSIONS: The methodology encompasses opportunities for applying SHS to future policy making assessment of future research priorities particularly in light of the dearth of data from low- and middle-income countries, and sharing of directions for future work to develop SHS 3.0.

US drug overdose mortality rose faster among hispanics than non-hispanics from 2010 to 2021.

BACKGROUND: Historically, overdose mortality rates among Hispanics have been lower than non-Hispanics. The purpose of this analysis was to characterize the U.S. overdose crisis among Hispanics compared to non-Hispanics. METHODS: We used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiological Research (WONDER) platform to obtain drug overdose mortality rates per 100,000 population between 2010 and 2021 for Hispanics and non-Hispanics. We examined the relative percent change and specific drug involvement (2010-2021) and state-level disparities (2010-2020) among Hispanics versus non-Hispanics. We calculated rate ratios by state and annual percent change in total and for each specific drug. Statistical analyses were performed using R software version 4.0.3 (R Project for Statistical Computing). RESULTS: Nationally, from 2010 to 2021, Hispanic overdose rates rose from 5.6 to 21.7 per 100,000, an increase of 287.5 % compared to 13.5-35.1 per 100,000, an increase of 160 % among non-Hispanics. The average annual percent change was 12 % for Hispanics and 9 % for non-Hispanics. The three most common drug classes involved in overdose deaths among both groups included: Fentanyls and synthetic opioids; cocaine; and prescription opioids. Hispanic overdose rates were higher than non-Hispanic rates in New Mexico, Colorado, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania in 2020, versus only Michigan in 2010. CONCLUSIONS: We observed disparities in overdose mortality growth among Hispanics compared to non-Hispanics from 2010 to 2021. These disparities highlight the urgency to develop community-centered solutions that take into consideration the social and structural inequalities that exacerbate the effects of the opioid overdose crisis on Hispanic communities.

Longitudinal changes in co-involved drugs, comorbidities, and demographics of methamphetamine-related deaths in Los Angeles County.

INTRODUCTION: We conducted a population-based observational study of all medical examiner cases in Los Angeles County from January 2012 through June 2021 in which methamphetamine was listed as a cause of or contributing factor to death (n = 6125). We aimed to characterize demographics, comorbidities, and co-involved substances in methamphetamine-related deaths longitudinally in Los Angeles County, California. METHODS: We used detailed death record data to manually classify fatalities by involvement of each organ system, opioids, alcohol, cocaine, other drugs or medications, and external/traumatic causes. Primary outcomes included: the number of methamphetamine-involved deaths, demographics of decedents, percentage of methamphetamine deaths also involving other drugs, and percentage of methamphetamine deaths involving different organ systems. We performed Mann Kendall tests of trends to identify statistically significant longitudinal changes. RESULTS: During the study period, the percentage of methamphetamine-related deaths involving opioids significantly increased from 16 % in 2012 to 54 % in 2021 (p < 0.001). Concurrently, the percentage involving cardiovascular causes significantly decreased from 47 % to 26 % (p < 0.05). Methamphetamine-related deaths in LAC increasingly affected people experiencing homelessness, for whom the percentage tripled from 13 % in 2012 to 35 % in 2021. The share of decedents under 40 years old increased from 33 % to 41 %. The percentage of Black or African American decedents increased over five-fold from 3 % to 17 %. CONCLUSIONS: Methamphetamine-related deaths involving opioids more than tripled in Los Angeles County from 2012 to 2021, reflecting the drug supply's shift to illicit fentanyl. More than a quarter involved cardiovascular causes. These findings have implications for treatment and prevention, including scaling up contingency management, distributing naloxone to people who primarily use stimulants, and including cardiovascular care alongside these interventions directly targeted to reduce harms of methamphetamine use.

International COVID-19 mortality forecast visualization: covidcompare.io.

COVID-19 mortality forecasting models provide critical information about the trajectory of the pandemic, which is used by policymakers and public health officials to guide decision-making. However, thousands of published COVID-19 mortality forecasts now exist, many with their own unique methods, assumptions, format, and visualization. As a result, it is difficult to compare models and understand under which circumstances a model performs best. Here, we describe the construction and usability of covidcompare.io, a web tool built to compare numerous forecasts and offer insight into how each has performed over the course of the pandemic. From its launch in December 2020 to June 2021, we have seen 4600 unique visitors from 85 countries. A study conducted with public health professionals showed high usability overall as formally assessed using a Post-Study System Usability Questionnaire. We find that covidcompare.io is an impactful tool for the comparison of international COVID-19 mortality forecasting models.