Catheter-associated urinary tract infection and urinary tract abnormalities in young children: A retrospective study.

INTRODUCTION: Studies investigating the role of urinary tract abnormalities in the development of catheter-associated urinary tract infections (CAUTI) in young children are limited. Thus, in the present study, we aimed to determine whether there is an association between CAUTI and urinary tract abnormalities. METHODS: We performed abdominal imaging studies on all patients aged <6 years with CAUTI admitted to the pediatric intensive care units (PICU) and high care unit (HCU) at Keio university or Fukuoka Children's Hospital from April 1, 2018 to July 31, 2022. Among 40 children who developed CAUTI, 13 (33 %) had abnormal urogenital images. Further, two case-control studies were conducted before and after propensity score matching, and the groups were compared using multivariable logistic regression models to analyze the effects of various factors on CAUTI development. RESULTS: In the multivariate logistic regression models, abnormal urogenital images (OR 5.30 [95 % CI, 2.40-11.7] and OR 3.44 [95 % CI, 1.16-9.93]) and duration of catheterization >10 days (OR 2.76 [95 % CI, 1.28-5.96] and OR 3.44 [95 % CI, 1.16-9.93]) were found to be significantly associated with development of CAUTI, both before (39 cases, 459 controls) and after propensity score matching (36 cases, 72 controls). Further, CAUTI in young children in the PICU or HCU was significantly associated with imaging abnormalities of the urinary tract. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that not only the presence of catheters, but also urinary tract malformations may contribute to the development of CAUTI in young children.

Clinical significance of serum cytokine profiles for differentiating between Kawasaki disease and its mimickers.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the clinical significance of serum cytokine profiles for differentiating between Kawasaki disease (KD) and its mimickers. METHODS: Patients with KD, including complete KD, KD shock syndrome (KDSS), and KD with macrophage activation syndrome (KD-MAS), and its mimickers, including multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children, toxic shock syndrome, and Yersinia pseudotuberculosis infection, were enrolled. Serum levels of interleukin (IL)-6, soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor type II (sTNF-RII), IL-10, IL-18, and chemokine (C-X-C motif) ligand 9 (CXCL9) were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and compared them with clinical manifestations. RESULTS: Serum IL-6, sTNF-RII, and IL-10 levels were significantly elevated in patients with KDSS. Serum IL-18 levels were substantially elevated in patients with KD-MAS. Patients with KD-MAS and KD mimickers had significantly elevated serum CXCL9 levels compared with those with complete KD. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that serum IL-6 was the most useful for differentiating KDSS from the others, IL-18 and CXCL9 for KD-MAS from complete KD, and CXCL9 for KD mimickers from complete KD and KD-MAS. CONCLUSION: Serum cytokine profiles may be useful for differentiating between KD and its mimickers.

A registry study of Kawasaki disease patients with coronary artery aneurysms (KIDCAR): a report on a multicenter prospective registry study three years after commencement.

The long-term prognosis of patients with Kawasaki disease (KD) complicated by coronary artery aneurysms (CAA) is still unclear. The present, multicenter registry study aimed to study the factors associated with coronary events (CE) and determine an appropriate management method for patients with KD complicated with CAA. Patients with KD with onset after 2015 and with a medium-sized or large CAA having an actual diameter ≥ 4 mm or a Z-score ≥ 5.0 at 30 days and later after KD onset were included in the annual survey. The primary endpoint was the time-dependent incidence of CE. Associated factors were also examined. In total, 179 patients from 53 centers were enrolled and followed up for a median of 501 days. The median age at KD onset was 2.2 years, 137 patients were male (77%), 47 had incomplete KD (26%), and 36 had large CAA (20%). CE occurred in 13 patients (7%; 95% confidence interval: 4-12%); eight (62%) experienced CE within 1 year, and all the patients experienced a CE within 2 years. All but one patient received antiplatelet drugs and warfarin. Patients with a large CAA had significantly more CAA (2.8 vs. 1.7, p < 0.001), more cases of warfarin use (86% vs. 43%, p < 0.001), and were more likely to have CE (28% vs. 2%, p < 0.001) than those with a medium-sized CAA. On univariate Cox regression analysis, the factors significantly associated with CE were large CAA (hazard ratio (HR): 17.0), three or more CAA (HR: 23.3), and beaded CAA (HR: 15.9). Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that the only associated factor was a large CAA. CONCLUSION: Patients with a large CAA were more likely to have a CE within 2 years. Antithrombotic therapy with warfarin did not eliminate the CE risk, and better therapies are desirable. WHAT IS KNOWN: • Coronary artery aneurysms are a serious complication of Kawasaki disease, and coronary events are sometimes fatal. • In previous, retrospective studies in Japan, large aneurysms, male sex, and refractoriness to initial immunoglobulin therapy were considered risk factors for coronary events. WHAT IS NEW: • Of 179 patients with a medium sized or large aneurysm, 13 (7%) experienced coronary events, all of which occurred within 2 years of onset. Factors significantly associated with coronary events were large aneurysms, three or more aneurysms, and beaded aneurysms.

A predictive score for detecting vesicoureteral reflux in children with their first Escherichia coli-induced urinary tract infection.

OBJECTIVES: In children with a first Escherichia coli-induced febrile urinary tract infection (fUTI), routine voiding cytourethrography (VCUG) is not recommended for detecting vesicoureteral reflux (VUR). Meanwhile, the sensitivity of renal and bladder ultrasound (RBUS) for detecting VUR is insufficient. Aiming to implement VCUG properly for children with a first E. coli-induced fUTI, we attempted to construct a predictive scoring system for the early screening of VUR. METHODS: This study enrolled patients aged <2 years of age hospitalized for their first E. coli-induced fUTI during the period when VCUG was implemented for all patients (2007-14, non-selective group [n = 111]) and only for those with VUR-suspected RBUS findings, bacteremia or acute focal bacterial nephritis (2016-19, selective group [n = 102]). We evaluated the accuracy of the current criteria and the VUR predictive score constructed using data from the non-selective group. RESULTS: In the non-selective group, 32 patients had VUR (29%). In the selective group, 20 of 45 VCUG-tested patients had VUR (44%). Among 57 patients not undergoing VCUG in the selective group, 8 had a recurrence of fUTI, 3 of whom were diagnosed with VUR. In the non-selective group, 9 patients with VUR did not fulfill the current criteria and the VUR predictive score consisting of young age, female sex, prolonged fever, hypoproteinemia, hyponatremia and hyperglycemia, showed higher sensitivity, specificity than the current criteria. CONCLUSIONS: The current imaging/bacteriological criteria were ineffective in screening for VUR in patients with their first E. coli-induced fUTI. The VUR predictive score can be an accurate indicator for implementing VCUG.

Nationwide surveillance of bacterial pathogens isolated from children conducted by the surveillance committee of Japanese Society of Chemotherapy, the Japanese Association for Infectious Diseases, and the Japanese Society for Clinical Microbiology in 2017: General overview of pathogenic antimicrobial susceptibility.

A nationwide surveillance of the antimicrobial susceptibility of pediatric patients to bacterial pathogens was conducted by Japanese Society of Chemotherapy, the Japanese Association for Infectious Diseases, and the Japanese Society for Clinical Microbiology in Japan in 2017. The isolates were collected from 18 medical facilities between March 2017 and May 2018 by the three societies. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was conducted at the central laboratory (Infection Control Research Center, Kitasato University, Tokyo) according to the methods recommended by the Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute. Susceptibility testing was evaluated in 926 strains (331 Streptococcus pneumoniae, 360 Haemophilus influenzae, 216 Moraxella catarrhalis, 5 Streptococcus agalactiae, and 14 Escherichia coli). The ratio of penicillin-resistant S. pneumoniae was 0% based on CLSI M100-ED29 criteria. However, three meropenem or tosufloxacin resistant S. pneumoniae isolates were obtained. Among H. influenzae, 13.1% of them were found to be ß-lactamase-producing ampicillin resistant strains, while 20.8% were ß-lactamase non-producing ampicillin-resistant strains. No capsular type b strains were detected. In M. catarrhalis, 99.5% of the isolates were ß-lactamase-producing strains. All S. agalactiae and E. coli strains were isolated from sterile body sites (blood or cerebrospinal fluid). The ratio of penicillin-resistant S. agalactiae was 0%, while that of extended spectrum ß-lactamase-producing E. coli was 14.3%.

Delayed Development of Coronary Artery Aneurysm in Patients with Kawasaki Disease Who Were Clinically Responsive to Immunoglobulin.

OBJECTIVE: To clarify the frequency and characteristics of discrepant outcomes of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) between fever and coronary artery aneurysms (CAAs) in patients with Kawasaki disease. STUDY DESIGN: This study included 325 patients who responded to oral aspirin and IVIG alone. The main outcome was CAA 4 weeks after disease onset. CAA was defined as ≥2.5 of maximum z score (Zmax) representing the highest value of 4 coronary artery branches. Immunoglobulin dosage and sequential changes in Zmax were reviewed to investigate the effects on fever and timing of CAA development. Logistic regression analyses with receiver operating characteristic curves using clinical and laboratory variables including the initial Zmax were performed to identify predictors of CAA at 4 weeks. RESULTS: CAAs were either persistent or appeared de novo 4 weeks after diagnosis in 13 of 325 patients who responded to a single or repeated IVIG. Four single-dose IVIG-responders developed CAA although they had pretreatment Zmax of <2.0. The 2 single-dose IVIG responders with the greatest pretreatment Zmax (>4.5) developed persistent CAA. Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated Zmax of 2.57 as the cut-off for predicting CAA. Multivariable analyses identified >2.5 Zmax (OR 9.08, 95% CI 1.26-65.3, P = .028, 50% sensitivity, 91% specificity) as the sole risk factor for CAA at 4 weeks in single-dose IVIG responders. CONCLUSIONS: Delayed development and persistence of CAA in single-dose IVIG responders indicate that some factors other than those responsible for systemic inflammation may contribute to vasculitis in CAA. Baseline Zmax 2.5 aids in predicting CAAs.

[Bacteriological Analysis of Pneumococcus Detected from the Sputum of Hospitalized Children].

7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) has been included in the routine immunization schedule since April 2013 in Japan. Serotype replacement - a phenomenon by which serotypes are replaced by non-vaccine serotypes after vaccine introduction - has been reported in invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Pneumococcus in sputum samples is one of the major causes of bronchopulmonary infection in children. We tried to verify whether serotype replacement of Pneumococcus occurs in sputum samples in a similar manner as in IPD. From August 2014 to September 2015, we performed antimicrobial susceptibility testing and serotyping of Streptococcus pneumoniae from sputum samples and investigated the history of PCV from hospitalized children with S. pneumoniae bronchopulmonary infection. From the results of our investigation, 80.3% of children have received PCV at least once. Serotypes of Pneumococcus were determined in 92.4% of tested strains and PCV13 strains accounted for only 9.8%. Major isolated serotypes were 15A (21.3%), 35B (19.7%), and 6C (13.1%). Those were not included in PCV13, i.e. serotype replacement occurs in bronchopulmonary infection just as in IPD. The results of antimicrobial susceptibility testing for Penicillin G indicated that penicillin-resistant S. pneumoniae (PRSP) accounted for 4.5%, penicillin-intermediate resistant S. pneumoniae (PISP) accounted for 47.0% and penicillin-susceptible S. pneumoniae (PSSP) accounted for 48.5%. When examining the drug susceptibility by serotypes, 15A, 19A, 23A and 35B showed a high percentage of non-susceptibility. This means there is a difference in the resistant trend by serotypes. In our study, it became clear that verifying of the serotypes of Pneumococcus in sputum is meaningful and surveillance of serotypes is important for evaluation of vaccination as IPD.

Evolutionary dynamics of the novel ST22-PT methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus clone co-harbouring Panton-Valentine leucocidin and duplicated toxic shock syndrome toxin 1 genes.

OBJECTIVES: Globally, the isolation of community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) harbouring both the Panton-Valentine leucocidin (PVL) and toxic shock syndrome toxin 1 (TSST-1) genes is rare. However, we encountered an outbreak of the ST22-PT clone exhibiting this phenotype in Japan. Notably, the TSST-1 gene was duplicated in most of the strains. This study aimed to elucidate the mechanisms underlying this gene duplication. METHODS: A total of 90 MRSA isolates were collected from the skin of outpatients in Fukuoka City, Japan, between 2017 and 2019. Whole-genome sequencing was performed on MRSA strains that were PVL and TSST-1 positive. RESULTS: A total of 43 (47.8%) strains produced TSST-1, 20 (22.2%) produced PVL, and 16 (17.8%) produced both. Fifteen isolates were classified as ST22/SCCmec type IVa (ST22-PT clone) and one as ST1/SCCmec type V (ST1-PT clone). Three distinct ST22-PT clones were identified: Fukuoka clone I (one PVL gene and one TSST-1 gene), Fukuoka clone II (addition of a TSST-1 gene to Fukuoka clone I), and Fukuoka clone III (marked by a chromosomal inversion in a large region from Fukuoka clone II). DISCUSSION: Fukuoka clone I may have integrated a novel pathogenicity island bearing the TSST-1 gene, leading to the emergence of Fukuoka clone II with a duplicated TSST-1 gene. This duplication subsequently instigated a chromosomal inversion in a large region owing to the homologous sequence surrounding TSST-1, giving rise to Fukuoka clone III. These findings provide crucial insights into the genetic evolution of MRSA.

CD14 down-modulation as a real-time biomarker in Kawasaki disease.

Objectives: The objectives of this study were to investigate the pathophysiology of Kawasaki disease (KD) from immunological and oxidative stress perspectives, and to identify real-time biomarkers linked to innate immunity and oxidative stress in KD. Methods: We prospectively enrolled 85 patients with KD and 135 patients with diverse conditions including immune, infectious and non-infectious diseases for this investigation. Flow cytometry was used to analyse the surface expression of CD14, CD38 and CD62L on monocytes, along with a quantitative assessment of CD14 down-modulation. Additionally, oxidative stress levels were evaluated using derivatives of reactive oxygen metabolites (d-ROMs) and antioxidant capacity measured by a free radical elective evaluator system. Results: During the acute phase of KD, we observed a prominent CD14 down-modulation on monocytes, reflecting the indirect detection of circulating innate immune molecular patterns. Moreover, patients with KD showed a significantly higher CD14 down-modulation compared with infectious and non-infectious disease controls. Notably, the surface expression of CD14 on monocytes was restored concurrently with responses to intravenous immunoglobulin and infliximab treatment in KD. Furthermore, d-ROM levels in patients with KD were significantly elevated compared with patients with infectious and non-infectious diseases. Following intravenous immunoglobulin treatment, oxidative stress levels decreased in patients with KD. Conclusion: Monitoring CD14 down-modulation on monocytes in real-time is a valuable strategy for assessing treatment response, distinguishing KD relapse from concomitant infections and selecting second-line therapy after IVIG treatment in KD patients. The interplay between inflammation and oxidative stress likely plays a crucial role in the development of KD.

Clinical Usefulness of T-Cell Receptor Vß Repertoire Analysis for Differentiating Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Japanese Children From Toxic Shock Syndrome and Kawasaki Disease.

The specific expansion of T-cell receptor ß chain variable region (TCR-Vß21.3 + ) CD4 + and CD8 + T cells was observed in Japanese patients with multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children. In contrast, these findings were not observed in patients with toxic shock syndrome and Kawasaki disease. T-cell receptor ß chain variable region repertoire analysis to detect specific expansion of Vß21.3 + T cells might be useful for differentiating multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children from toxic shock syndrome and Kawasaki disease.

Clinical Characteristics of Cryopyrin-Associated Periodic Syndrome and Long-Term Real-World Efficacy and Tolerability of Canakinumab in Japan: Results of a Nationwide Survey.

OBJECTIVE: We assess the clinical characteristics of patients with cryopyrin-associated periodic syndrome (CAPS) in Japan and evaluate the real-world efficacy and safety of interleukin-1 (IL-1) inhibitors, primarily canakinumab. METHODS: Clinical information was collected retrospectively, and serum concentrations of canakinumab and cytokines were analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 101 patients were included, with 86 and 15 carrying heterozygous germline and somatic mosaic mutations, respectively. We identified 39 mutation types, and the common CAPS-associated symptoms corresponded with those in previous reports. Six patients (5.9% of all patients) died, with four of the deaths caused by CAPS-associated symptoms. Notably, 73.7% of patients (100%, 79.6%, and 44.4% of familial cold autoinflammatory syndrome, Muckle-Wells syndrome, and chronic infantile neurological cutaneous articular syndrome/neonatal onset multisystem inflammatory disease, respectively) achieved complete remission with canakinumab, and early therapeutic intervention was associated with better auditory outcomes. In some patients, canakinumab treatment stabilized the progression of epiphysial overgrowth and improved height gain, visual acuity, and renal function. However, 23.7% of patients did not achieve inflammatory remission with crucial deterioration of organ damage, with two dying while receiving high-dose canakinumab treatment. Serological analysis of canakinumab and cytokine concentrations revealed that the poor response was not related to canakinumab shortage. Four inflammatory nonremitters developed inflammatory bowel disease (IBD)-unclassified during canakinumab treatment. Dual biologic therapy with canakinumab and anti-tumor necrosis factor-α agents was effective for IBD- and CAPS-associated symptoms not resolved by canakinumab monotherapy. CONCLUSION: This study provides one of the largest epidemiologic data sets for CAPS. Although early initiation of anti-IL-1 treatment with canakinumab is beneficial for improving disease prognosis, some patients do not achieve remission despite a high serum concentration of canakinumab. Moreover, IBD may develop in CAPS after canakinumab treatment.

Efficacy of immunoglobulin plus prednisolone for prevention of coronary artery abnormalities in severe Kawasaki disease (RAISE study): a randomised, open-label, blinded-endpoints trial.

BACKGROUND: Evidence indicates that corticosteroid therapy might be beneficial for the primary treatment of severe Kawasaki disease. We assessed whether addition of prednisolone to intravenous immunoglobulin with aspirin would reduce the incidence of coronary artery abnormalities in patients with severe Kawasaki disease. METHODS: We did a multicentre, prospective, randomised, open-label, blinded-endpoints trial at 74 hospitals in Japan between Sept 29, 2008, and Dec 2, 2010. Patients with severe Kawasaki disease were randomly assigned by a minimisation method to receive either intravenous immunoglobulin (2 g/kg for 24 h and aspirin 30 mg/kg per day) or intravenous immunoglobulin plus prednisolone (the same intravenous immunoglobulin regimen as the intravenous immunoglobulin group plus prednisolone 2 mg/kg per day given over 15 days after concentrations of C-reactive protein normalised). Patients and treating physicians were unmasked to group allocation. The primary endpoint was incidence of coronary artery abnormalities during the study period. Analysis was by intention to treat. This trial is registered with the University Hospital Medical Information Network clinical trials registry, number UMIN000000940. FINDINGS: We randomly assigned 125 patients to the intravenous immunoglobulin plus prednisolone group and 123 to the intravenous immunoglobulin group. Incidence of coronary artery abnormalities was significantly lower in the intravenous immunoglobulin plus prednisolone group than in the intravenous immunoglobulin group during the study period (four patients [3%] vs 28 patients [23%]; risk difference 0·20, 95% CI 0·12-0·28, p<0·0001). Serious adverse events were similar between both groups: two patients had high total cholesterol and one neutropenia in the intravenous immunoglobulin plus prednisolone group, and one had high total cholesterol and another non-occlusive thrombus in the intravenous immunoglobulin group. INTERPRETATION: Addition of prednisolone to the standard regimen of intravenous immunoglobulin improves coronary artery outcomes in patients with severe Kawasaki disease in Japan. Further study of intensified primary treatment for this disease in a mixed ethnic population is warranted. FUNDING: Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.

Safety of Re-dosing Nirsevimab Prior to RSV Season 2 in Children With Heart or Lung Disease.

In children with congenital heart disease and/or chronic lung disease entering their second respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) season, 200 mg nirsevimab had a similar safety profile to that of palivizumab and resulted in nirsevimab serum exposures associated with efficacy in healthy infants, supporting efficacy in this population at risk of severe RSV disease.

Lumicitabine, an orally administered nucleoside analog, in infants hospitalized with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection: Safety, efficacy, and pharmacokinetic results.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is the leading cause of infant hospitalizations and mortality. Lumicitabine, an oral nucleoside analog was studied for the treatment of RSV. The phase 1b and phase 2b studies reported here assessed the safety, pharmacokinetics, and pharmacodynamics of lumicitabine in infants/neonates hospitalized with RSV. In the phase 1b study, infants (≥1 to ≤12 months) and neonates (<28 days) received a single-ascending or multiple-ascending doses (single loading dose [LD] then 9 maintenance doses [MD] of lumicitabine, or placebo [3:1]). In the phase 2b study, infants/children (28 days to ≤36 months old) received lumicitabine 40/20 mg/kg, 60/40 mg/kg LD/MD twice-daily or placebo (1:1:1) for 5 days. Safety, pharmacokinetics, and efficacy parameters were assessed over 28 days. Lumicitabine was associated with a dose-related increase in the incidence and severity of reversible neutropenia. Plasma levels of ALS-008112, the active nucleoside analog, were dose-proportional with comparable mean exposure levels at the highest doses in both studies. There were no significant differences between the lumicitabine groups and placebo in reducing viral load, time to viral non-detectability, and symptom resolution. No emergent resistance-associated substitutions were observed at the RSV L-gene positions of interest. In summary, lumicitabine was associated with a dose-related increase in the incidence and severity of reversible neutropenia and failed to demonstrate antiviral activity in RSV-infected hospitalized infants. This contrasts with the findings of the previous RSV-A adult challenge study where significant antiviral activity was noted, without incidence of neutropenia. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02202356 (phase 1b); NCT03333317 (phase 2b).

Severe encephalopathy associated with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 variant infection in a neonate.

INTRODUCTION: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), including the Omicron variant, is less severe in children than in adults. To date, there has been no detailed description of COVID-19-associated severe encephalopathy due to the Omicron variant during the neonatal and early infantile periods. CASE PRESENTATION: During the outbreak of the Omicron variant, a 29-day-old male presented with a pale and ill appearance. The patient was intubated for mechanical ventilation owing to recurrent apnea, which subsequently turned out to be a breath-holding that may have been caused by seizure. In addition, nonconvulsive status epilepticus was observed. Total duration of repetitive seizure activities was approximately 30 min per hour when seizures were most severe. Brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) on day 14 revealed extensive hyperintensity in the T2 sequence, hypointensity in the fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) sequence in the deep and subcortical white matter, and diffusion restriction in the corpus callosum. The Omicron BA.1 variant of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 was detected in his respiratory sample. Follow-up MRI on day 45 revealed multiple cystic cavitations. CONCLUSION: Although COVID-19 is not severe in most children, life-threatening conditions such as COVID-19-associated severe encephalopathy can occur during the neonatal and early infantile periods.

Incidence and risk factors of acute encephalopathy with biphasic seizures in febrile status epilepticus.

OBJECTIVE: To clarify the incidence and risk factors of acute encephalopathy with biphasic seizures and late reduced diffusion (AESD) in pediatric patients with febrile status epilepticus (FSE). METHODS: We retrospectively surveyed patients with FSE (≥20 min and ≥40 min) who were younger than 6 years by mailing a questionnaire to 1123 hospitals in Japan. The survey period was 2 years. We then collected clinical data on patients with prolonged febrile seizures (PFS) ≥40 min and those with AESD, and compared clinical data between the PFS and AESD groups. RESULTS: The response rate for the primary survey was 42.3%, and 28.0% of hospitals which had applicable cases responded in the secondary survey. The incidence of AESD was 4.3% in patients with FSE ≥20 min and 7.1% in those with FSE ≥40 min. In the second survey, a total of 548 patients had FSE ≥40 min (AESD group, n = 93; PFS group, n = 455). Univariate analysis revealed significant between-group differences in pH, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, lactate dehydrogenase, creatine kinase, NH3, procalcitonin (PCT), uric acid, blood urea nitrogen, creatinine (Cr), and lactate. Multivariate analysis using stratified values showed that high PCT was an only risk factor for AESD. A prediction score of ≥3 was indicative of AESD, as determined using the following indexes: HCO3- < 20 mmol/L (1 point), Cl <100 mEq/L (1 point), Cr ≥0.35 mg/dL (1 point), glucose ≥200 mg/dL (1 point), and PCT ≥1.7 pg/mL (2 points). The scoring system had sensitivity of 84.2% and specificity of 81.0%. CONCLUSION: Incidence data and prediction scores for AESD will be useful for future intervention trials for AESD.