Household Transmission Dynamics of Seasonal Human Coronaviruses.

BACKGROUND: Household transmission studies inform how viruses spread among close contacts, but few characterize household transmission of endemic coronaviruses. METHODS: We used data collected from 223 households with school-age children participating in weekly disease surveillance over 2 respiratory virus seasons (December 2015 to May 2017), to describe clinical characteristics of endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV-229E, HcoV-HKU1, HcoV-NL63, HcoV-OC43) infections, and community and household transmission probabilities using a chain-binomial model correcting for missing data from untested households. RESULTS: Among 947 participants in 223 households, we observed 121 infections during the study, most commonly subtype HCoV-OC43. Higher proportions of infected children (<19 years) displayed influenza-like illness symptoms than infected adults (relative risk, 3.0; 95% credible interval [CrI], 1.5-6.9). The estimated weekly household transmission probability was 9% (95% CrI, 6-13) and weekly community acquisition probability was 7% (95% CrI, 5-10). We found no evidence for differences in community or household transmission probabilities by age or symptom status. Simulations suggest that our study was underpowered to detect such differences. CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights the need for large household studies to inform household transmission, the challenges in estimating household transmission probabilities from asymptomatic individuals, and implications for controlling endemic CoVs.

Influenza and other respiratory viral infections associated with absence from school among schoolchildren in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Information on the etiology and age-specific burden of respiratory viral infections among school-aged children remains limited. Though school aged children are often recognized as driving the transmission of influenza as well as other respiratory viruses, little detailed information is available on the distribution of respiratory infections among children of different ages within this group. Factors other than age including gender and time spent in school may also be important in determining risk of infection but have been little studied in this age group. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study to determine the etiology of influenza like illness (ILI) among 2519 K-12 students during the 2012-13 influenza season. We obtained nasal swabs from students with ILI-related absences. Generalized linear mixed-effect regressions determined associations of outcomes, including ILI and laboratory-confirmed respiratory virus infection, with school grade and other covariates. RESULTS: Overall, 459 swabs were obtained from 552 ILI-related absences. Respiratory viruses were found in 292 (63.6%) samples. Influenza was found in 189 (41.2%) samples. With influenza B found in 134 (70.9%). Rates of influenza B were significantly higher in grades 1 (10.1, 95% CI 6.8-14.4%), 2 (9.7, 6.6-13.6%), 3 (9.3, 6.3-13.2%), and 4 (9.9, 6.8-13.8%) than in kindergarteners (3.2, 1.5-6.0%). After accounting for grade, sex and self-reported vaccination status, influenza B infection risk was lower among kindergarteners in half-day programs compared to kindergarteners in full-day programs (OR = 0.19; 95% CI 0.08-0.45). CONCLUSIONS: ILI and influenza infection is concentrated in younger schoolchildren. Reduced infection by respiratory viruses is associated with a truncated school day for kindergarteners but this finding requires further investigation in other grades and populations.

Modeling the effect of school closures in a pandemic scenario: exploring two different contact matrices.

BACKGROUND: School closures may delay the epidemic peak of the next influenza pandemic, but whether school closure can delay the peak until pandemic vaccine is ready to be deployed is uncertain. METHODS: To study the effect of school closures on the timing of epidemic peaks, we built a deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered model of influenza transmission. We stratified the U.S. population into 4 age groups (0-4, 5-19, 20-64, and ≥ 65 years), and used contact matrices to model the average number of potentially disease transmitting, nonphysical contacts. RESULTS: For every week of school closure at day 5 of introduction and a 30% clinical attack rate scenario, epidemic peak would be delayed by approximately 5 days. For a 15% clinical attack rate scenario, 1 week closure would delay the peak by 9 days. Closing schools for less than 84 days (12 weeks) would not, however, reduce the estimated total number of cases. CONCLUSIONS: Unless vaccine is available early, school closure alone may not be able to delay the peak until vaccine is ready to be deployed. Conversely, if vaccination begins quickly, school closure may be helpful in providing the time to vaccinate school-aged children before the pandemic peaks.

How should social mixing be measured: comparing web-based survey and sensor-based methods.

BACKGROUND: Contact surveys and diaries have conventionally been used to measure contact networks in different settings for elucidating infectious disease transmission dynamics of respiratory infections. More recently, technological advances have permitted the use of wireless sensor devices, which can be worn by individuals interacting in a particular social context to record high resolution mixing patterns. To date, a direct comparison of these two different methods for collecting contact data has not been performed. METHODS: We studied the contact network at a United States high school in the spring of 2012. All school members (i.e., students, teachers, and other staff) were invited to wear wireless sensor devices for a single school day, and asked to remember and report the name and duration of all of their close proximity conversational contacts for that day in an online contact survey. We compared the two methods in terms of the resulting network densities, nodal degrees, and degree distributions. We also assessed the correspondence between the methods at the dyadic and individual levels. RESULTS: We found limited congruence in recorded contact data between the online contact survey and wireless sensors. In particular, there was only negligible correlation between the two methods for nodal degree, and the degree distribution differed substantially between both methods. We found that survey underreporting was a significant source of the difference between the two methods, and that this difference could be improved by excluding individuals who reported only a few contact partners. Additionally, survey reporting was more accurate for contacts of longer duration, and very inaccurate for contacts of shorter duration. Finally, female participants tended to report more accurately than male participants. CONCLUSIONS: Online contact surveys and wireless sensor devices collected incongruent network data from an identical setting. This finding suggests that these two methods cannot be used interchangeably for informing models of infectious disease dynamics.

School closures due to seasonal influenza: a prospective data collection-based study of eleven influenza seasons-United States, 2011-2022.

Background: While numerous studies explore pandemic-associated school closures, literature is scant regarding seasonal influenza-associated closures. We previously reported summaries on COVID-19 pandemic-related school closures in the United States (US), which affected virtually all schools in the nation. The current prospective study aims to address the knowledge gap for seasonal influenza-related closures in the United States. Methods: We conducted systematic daily online searches from August 1, 2011 to June 30, 2022, to identify public announcements of unplanned school closures in the US lasting ≥1 day, selecting those that mentioned influenza and influenza-like illness (ILI) as reason for school closure (ILI-SCs). We studied ILI-SC temporal patterns and compared them with reported outpatient ILI-related healthcare visits. Findings: We documented that ILI-SCs occurred annually, with yearly totals ranging from 11 ILI-SCs in both the 2013-2014 and 2020-2021 school years to 2886 ILI-SCs in the 2019-2020 school year among more than 100,000 kindergarten through twelfth grade schools in the US. ILI-SCs occurred concurrently with widespread illness and the strongest correlations were observed during influenza A (H3N2)-dominant seasons, most notably in the 2016-2017 (Spearman rank correlation (rs) = 0.83) and the 2017-2018 (rs = 0.84) school years. ILI-SCs were heavily centered in U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Region 4 (states of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee) [60% (6040/9166, Region 4/Total school closures)] and disproportionately impacted rural and lower-income communities. Interpretation: Outside of a pandemic, disease-related school closures are extreme and generally rare events for US schools and communities. Timely compilation of publicly available ILI-SC announcements could enhance influenza surveillance, particularly in severe influenza seasons or pandemics when ILI-SCs are prevalent. Funding: This work was supported by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Co-authors (NZ, YZ, HG, AU) were or are US CDC employees, and FJ was a contractor through Cherokee Nation Operational Solutions, LLC, which supported FJ's salary, but had no additional role in the study.

Immunological response to fractional-dose yellow fever vaccine administered during an outbreak in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo: results 5 years after vaccination from a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In 2016, outbreaks of yellow fever in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo led to a global vaccine shortage. A fractional dose of 17DD yellow fever vaccine (containing one-fifth [0·1 ml] of the standard dose) was used during a pre-emptive mass campaign in August, 2016, in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo among children aged 2 years and older and non-pregnant adults (ie, those aged 18 years and older). 1 year following vaccination, 97% of participants were seropositive; however, the long-term durability of the immune response is unknown. We aimed to conduct a prospective cohort study and invited participants enrolled in the previous evaluation to return 5 years after vaccination to assess durability of the immune response. METHODS: Participants returned to one of six health facilities in Kinshasa in 2021, where study staff collected a brief medical history and blood specimen. We assessed neutralising antibody titres against yellow fever virus using a plaque reduction neutralisation test with a 50% cutoff (PRNT50). Participants with a PRNT50 titre of 10 or higher were considered seropositive. The primary outcome was the proportion of participants seropositive at 5 years. FINDINGS: Among the 764 participants enrolled, 566 (74%) completed the 5-year visit. 5 years after vaccination, 539 (95·2%, 95% CI 93·2-96·7) participants were seropositive, including 361 (94·3%, 91·5-96·2) of 383 who were seronegative and 178 (97·3%, 93·8-98·8) of 183 who were seropositive at baseline. Geometric mean titres (GMTs) differed significantly across age groups for those who were initially seronegative with the lowest GMT among those aged 2-5 years and highest among those aged 13 years and older. INTERPRETATION: A fractional dose of the 17DD yellow fever vaccine induced an immunologic response with detectable titres at 5 years among the majority of participants in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. These findings support the use of fractional-dose vaccination for outbreak prevention with the potential for sustained immunity. FUNDING: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance through the CDC Foundation. TRANSLATION: For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Sexually transmitted infections among HIV-infected adults in HIV care programs in Kenya: a national sample of HIV clinics.

BACKGROUND: Identifying sexually transmitted infections (STI) in HIV-infected individuals has potential to benefit individual and public health. There are few guidelines regarding routine STI screening in sub-Saharan African HIV programs. We determined sexual risk behavior and prevalence and correlates of STI in a national survey of large HIV treatment programs in Kenya. METHODS: A mobile screening team visited 39 (95%) of the 42 largest HIV care programs in Kenya and enrolled participants using population-proportionate systematic sampling. Participants provided behavioral and clinical data. Genital and blood specimens were tested for trichomoniasis, gonorrhea, chlamydia, syphilis, and CD4 T-lymphocyte counts. RESULTS: Among 1661 adults, 41% reported no sexual partners in the past 3 months. Among those who reported sex in the past 3 months, 63% of women reported condom use during this encounter compared with 77% of men (P < 0.001). Trichomoniasis was the most common STI in women (10.9%) and men (2.8%); prevalences of gonorrhea, chlamydia, and syphilis were low (<1%-2%). Among women, younger age (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 0.96 per year; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.94-0.98) and primary school education or lower level (adjusted OR, 2.16; 95% CI, 1.37-3.40) were independently associated with trichomoniasis, whereas CD4 count, cotrimoxazole use, and reported condom use were not. Reported condom use at last sex was associated with reporting that the clinic provided condoms among both women (OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.17-2.35) and men (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.18-4.82). CONCLUSIONS: Women attending Kenyan HIV care programs had a 10.9% prevalence of trichomoniasis, suggesting that screening for this infection may be useful. Condom provision at clinics may enhance secondary HIV prevention efforts.

Association between transfusion with human herpesvirus 8 antibody-positive blood and subsequent mortality.

BACKGROUND: Human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8) is endemic in Uganda and transmissible by blood. We evaluated mortality following transfusion of HHV-8 antibody-positive blood. METHODS: In a hospital-based, observational, prospective cohort study with a 6-month follow-up, we examined the effect of HHV-8 antibody-positive blood on transfusion recipients surviving at least 7 days. RESULTS: Of 1092 recipients, 471 (43.1%) were transfused with HHV-8 antibody-positive blood. Median age was 1.8 years (range, 0.1-78); 111 (10.2%) died during follow-up. After adjusting for confounders (increasing age, human immunodeficiency virus infection, illness other than malaria, receipt of multiple transfusions), recipients of HHV-8 antibody-positive blood stored ≤4 days ("short-stored") were more likely to die than recipients of HHV-8 antibody-negative blood (adjusted hazards ratio [AHR], 1.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21-3.05; P = .01). The AHR of the effect of each additional short-stored HHV-8 antibody-positive transfusion was 1.79 (95% CI, 1.33-2.41; P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: Transfusion with short-stored HHV-8 antibody-positive blood was associated with an increased risk of death. Further research is warranted to determine if a causal pathway exists and to verify the observed association between acute HHV-8 infection and premature mortality.

Neural circuit mechanisms linking courtship and reward in Drosophila males.

Courtship has evolved to achieve reproductive success in animal species. However, whether courtship itself has a positive value remains unclear. In the present work, we report that courtship is innately rewarding and can induce the expression of appetitive short-term memory (STM) and long-term memory (LTM) in Drosophila melanogaster males. Activation of male-specific P1 neurons is sufficient to mimic courtship-induced preference and memory performance. Surprisingly, P1 neurons functionally connect to a large proportion of dopaminergic neurons (DANs) in the protocerebral anterior medial (PAM) cluster. The acquisition of STM and LTM depends on two distinct subsets of PAM DANs that convey the courtship-reward signal to the restricted regions of the mushroom body (MB) γ and α/ß lobes through two dopamine receptors, D1-like Dop1R1 and D2-like Dop2R. Furthermore, the retrieval of STM stored in the MB α'/ß' lobes and LTM stored in the MB α/ß lobe relies on two distinct MB output neurons. Finally, LTM consolidation requires two subsets of PAM DANs projecting to the MB α/ß lobe and corresponding MB output neurons. Taken together, our findings demonstrate that courtship is a potent rewarding stimulus and reveal the underlying neural circuit mechanisms linking courtship and reward in Drosophila males.

Predictors for Uptake of Vaccines Offered during the Second Year of Life: Second Dose of Measles-Containing Vaccine and Meningococcal Serogroup A-Containing Vaccine, Ghana, 2020.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the drivers of coverage for vaccines offered in the second year of life (2YL) is a critical focus area for Ghana's life course approach to vaccination. This study characterizes the predictors of vaccine receipt for 2YL vaccines-meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine (MACV) and the second dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV2)-in Ghana. METHODS: 1522 children aged 18-35 months were randomly sampled through household surveys in the Greater Accra Region (GAR), Northern Region (NR), and Volta Region (VR). The association between predictors and vaccination status was modeled using logistic regression with backwards elimination procedures. Predictors included child, caregiver, and household characteristics. RESULTS: Coverage was high for infant vaccines (>85%) but lower for 2YL vaccines (ranging from 60.2% for MACV in GAR to 82.8% for MCV2 in VR). Predictors of vaccination status varied by region. Generally, older, first-born children, those living in rural settlements and those who received their recommended infant vaccines by their first birthday were the most likely to have received 2YL vaccines. Uptake was higher among those with older mothers and children whose caregivers were aware of the vaccination schedule. CONCLUSIONS: Improving infant immunization uptake through increased community awareness and targeted strategies, such as parental reminders about vaccination visits, may improve 2YL vaccination coverage.

COVID-19 Vaccine Perceptions among Ebola-Affected Communities in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2021.

Populations affected by humanitarian crises and emerging infectious disease outbreaks may have unique concerns and experiences that influence their perceptions toward vaccines. In March 2021, we conducted a survey to examine the perceptions toward COVID-19 vaccines and identify the factors associated with vaccine intention among 631 community members (CMs) and 438 healthcare workers (HCWs) affected by the 2018-2020 Ebola Virus Disease outbreak in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo. A multivariable logistic regression was used to identify correlates of vaccine intention. Most HCWs (81.7%) and 53.6% of CMs felt at risk of contracting COVID-19; however, vaccine intention was low (27.6% CMs; 39.7% HCWs). In both groups, the perceived risk of contracting COVID-19, general vaccine confidence, and male sex were associated with the intention to get vaccinated, with security concerns preventing vaccine access being negatively associated. Among CMs, getting the Ebola vaccine was associated with the intention to get vaccinated (RR 1.43, 95% CI 1.05-1.94). Among HCWs, concerns about new vaccines' safety and side effects (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.57-0.91), religion's influence on health decisions (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.34-0.61), security concerns (OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.37-0.74), and governmental distrust (OR 0.50, 95% CI 0.35-0.70) were negatively associated with vaccine perceptions. Enhanced community engagement and communication that address this population's concerns could help improve vaccine perceptions and vaccination decisions. These findings could facilitate the success of vaccine campaigns in North Kivu and similar settings.

Ebola vaccine uptake and attitudes among healthcare workers in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2021.

Introduction: During the 2018-2020 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), prevention and control measures, such as Ebola vaccination were challenging by community mistrust. We aimed to understand perceptions regarding Ebola vaccination and identify determinants of Ebola vaccine uptake among HCWs. Methods: In March 2021, we conducted a cross-sectional survey among 438 HCWs from 100 randomly selected health facilities in three health zones (Butembo, Beni, Mabalako) affected by the 10th EVD outbreak in North Kivu, DRC. HCWs were eligible if they were ≥ 18 years and were working in a health facility during the outbreak. We used survey logistic regression to assess correlates of first-offer uptake (i.e., having received the vaccine the first time it was offered vs. after subsequent offers). Results: Of the 438 HCWs enrolled in the study, 420 (95.8%) reported that they were eligible and offered an Ebola vaccine. Among those offered vaccination, self-reported uptake of the Ebola vaccine was 99.0% (95% confidence interval (CI) [98.5-99.4]), but first-offer uptake was 70.2% (95% CI [67.1, 73.5]). Nearly all HCWs (94.3%; 95% CI [92.7-95.5]) perceived themselves to be at risk of contracting EVD. The most common concern was that the vaccine would cause side effects (65.7%; 95% CI [61.4-69.7]). In the multivariable analysis, mistrust of the vaccine source or how the vaccine was produced decreased the odds of first-time uptake. Discussion: Overall uptake of the Ebola vaccine was high among HCWs, but uptake at the first offer was substantially lower, which was associated with mistrust of the vaccine source. Future Ebola vaccination efforts should plan to make repeated vaccination offers to HCWs and address their underlying mistrust in the vaccines, which can, in turn, improve community uptake.

Causes, characteristics, and patterns of prolonged unplanned school closures prior to the COVID-19 pandemic-United States, 2011-2019.

INTRODUCTION: Outside of pandemics, there is little information about occurrence of prolonged unplanned K-12 school closures (PUSC). We describe here the reasons, characteristics, and patterns of PUSC in the United States during 8 consecutive inter-pandemic academic years, 2011-2019. METHODS: From August 1, 2011 through June 30, 2019, daily systematic online searches were conducted to collect data on publicly announced unplanned school closures lasting ≥1 school days in the United States. Closures were categorized as prolonged when schools were closed for ≥5 unplanned days (approximating one full workweek), excluding weekends and scheduled days off per school calendars. RESULTS: During the eight academic years, a total of 22,112 PUSCs were identified, affecting over 800,000 teachers and 13 million students that resulted in 91.5 million student-days lost. A median of 62.9% of students in PUSC-affected schools were eligible for subsidized school meals. Most affected schools were in cities (35%) and suburban areas (33%). Natural disasters (47%), adverse weather conditions (35%), and budget/teacher strikes (15%) were the most frequently cited reasons for PUSC; illness accounted for 1%, and building/facility issues, environmental issues and violence together accounted for the remaining 2%. The highest number of PUSCs occurred in Health and Human Services Regions 2, 3, 4, and 6 encompassing areas that are frequently in the path of hurricanes and tropical storms. The majority of PUSCs in these regions were attributed to a handful of hurricanes during the fall season, including hurricanes Sandy, Irma, Harvey, Florence, and Matthew. CONCLUSIONS: PUSCs occur annually in the United States due to a variety of causes and are associated with a substantive loss of student-days for in-school learning. Both these prior experiences with PUSCs and those during the current COVID-19 pandemic illustrate a need for creating sustainable solutions for high-quality distance learning and innovative supplemental feeding programs nationwide, especially in disaster-prone areas.

Policy and practice of checking vaccination status at school in 2018, a global overview.

BACKGROUND: Checking vaccination status at school is widely recommended as a strategy to strengthen routine childhood vaccination coverage. Documentation of approaches, challenges, strengths, and impact of this strategy in a variety of contexts is key to enhancing adoption and implementation. However, there is limited information about the prevalence of policies and the implementation of checking vaccination status at school globally. METHODS: A one-time supplementary survey was circulated with the annual World Health Organization (WHO) and United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) Joint Reporting Form in 2019 to all WHO member states and non-member state reporting entities. Additional publicly available country-level data, including primary school enrollment, home-based record (HBR) ownership, and World Bank income classification were linked to the supplementary survey responses, which were descriptively analyzed. RESULTS: We received survey responses from 130 of the 194 (67%) WHO member states and 15 non-member state reporting entities. Almost half (46%) of the respondents reported having a law requiring proof of vaccination to enter at least one level of education, and 60% of the respondents reported having a law that requires checking vaccination status at school in 2018. Three-quarters of the respondents (77%) reported the practice of routinely checking vaccination status at school. Both laws and the practice of checking were more common in the WHO Region of the Americas and the WHO European Region, and in high- and upper-middle-income countries. Individual HBR was the document most frequently checked. Catch-up vaccination occurred most frequently at health centers. Evaluation of checking vaccination status at school to determine what has worked and its effect was infrequently reported. CONCLUSION: Despite widespread implementation of checking vaccination status at school in 2018, documentation of the experiences in planning and implementing this strategy, and its effects remains sparse, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.

COVID-19-associated school closures and related efforts to sustain education and subsidized meal programs, United States, February 18-June 30, 2020.

Pre-emptive school closures are frontline community mitigation measures recommended by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for implementation during severe pandemics. This study describes the spatiotemporal patterns of publicly announced school closures implemented in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and assesses how public K-12 districts adjusted their methods of education delivery and provision of subsidized meals. During February 18-June 30, 2020, we used daily systematic media searches to identify publicly announced COVID-19-related school closures lasting ≥1 day in the United States (US). We also collected statewide school closure policies from state government websites. Data on distance learning and subsidized meal programs were collected from a stratified sample of 600 school districts. The first COVID-19-associated school closure occurred on February 27, 2020 in Washington state. By March 30, 2020, all but one US public school districts were closed, representing the first-ever nearly synchronous nationwide closure of public K-12 schools in the US. Approximately 100,000 public schools were closed for ≥8 weeks because of COVID-19, affecting >50 million K-12 students. Of 600 districts sampled, the vast majority offered distance learning (91.0%) and continued provision of subsidized meal programs (78.8%) during the closures. Despite the sudden and prolonged nature of COVID-19-associated school closures, schools demonstrated flexibility by implementing distance learning and alternate methods to continue subsidized meal programs.

Predicting virologically confirmed influenza using school absences in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, USA during the 2007-2015 influenza seasons.

BACKGROUND: Children are important in community-level influenza transmission. School-based monitoring may inform influenza surveillance. METHODS: We used reported weekly confirmed influenza in Allegheny County during the 2007 and 2010-2015 influenza seasons using Pennsylvania's Allegheny County Health Department all-age influenza cases from health facilities, and all-cause and influenza-like illness (ILI)-specific absences from nine county school districts. Negative binomial regression predicted influenza cases using all-cause and illness-specific absence rates, calendar week, average weekly temperature, and relative humidity, using four cross-validations. RESULTS: School districts reported 2 184 220 all-cause absences (2010-2015). Three one-season studies reported 19 577 all-cause and 3012 ILI-related absences (2007, 2012, 2015). Over seven seasons, 11 946 confirmed influenza cases were reported. Absences improved seasonal model fits and predictions. Multivariate models using elementary school absences outperformed middle and high school models (relative mean absolute error (relMAE) = 0.94, 0.98, 0.99). K-5 grade-specific absence models had lowest mean absolute errors (MAE) in cross-validations. ILI-specific absences performed marginally better than all-cause absences in two years, adjusting for other covariates, but markedly worse one year. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest seasonal models including K-5th grade absences predict all-age-confirmed influenza and may serve as a useful surveillance tool.

Age-specific social mixing of school-aged children in a US setting using proximity detecting sensors and contact surveys.

Comparisons of the utility and accuracy of methods for measuring social interactions relevant to disease transmission are rare. To increase the evidence base supporting specific methods to measure social interaction, we compared data from self-reported contact surveys and wearable proximity sensors from a cohort of schoolchildren in the Pittsburgh metropolitan area. Although the number and type of contacts recorded by each participant differed between the two methods, we found good correspondence between the two methods in aggregate measures of age-specific interactions. Fewer, but longer, contacts were reported in surveys, relative to the generally short proximal interactions captured by wearable sensors. When adjusted for expectations of proportionate mixing, though, the two methods produced highly similar, assortative age-mixing matrices. These aggregate mixing matrices, when used in simulation, resulted in similar estimates of risk of infection by age. While proximity sensors and survey methods may not be interchangeable for capturing individual contacts, they can generate highly correlated data on age-specific mixing patterns relevant to the dynamics of respiratory virus transmission.

Age-specific social mixing of school-aged children in a US setting using proximity detecting sensors and contact surveys.

Comparisons of the utility and accuracy of methods for measuring social interactions relevant to disease transmission are rare. To increase the evidence base supporting specific methods to measure social interaction, we compared data from self-reported contact surveys and wearable proximity sensors from a cohort of schoolchildren in the Pittsburgh metropolitan area. Although the number and type of contacts recorded by each participant differed between the two methods, we found good correspondence between the two methods in aggregate measures of age-specific interactions. Fewer, but longer, contacts were reported in surveys, relative to the generally short proximal interactions captured by wearable sensors. When adjusted for expectations of proportionate mixing, though, the two methods produced highly similar, assortative age-mixing matrices. These aggregate mixing matrices, when used in simulation, resulted in similar estimates of risk of infection by age. While proximity sensors and survey methods may not be interchangeable for capturing individual contacts, they can generate highly correlated data on age-specific mixing patterns relevant to the dynamics of respiratory virus transmission.

School dismissal as a pandemic influenza response: When, where and for how long?

We used individual-based computer simulation models at community, regional and national levels to evaluate the likely impact of coordinated pre-emptive school dismissal policies during an influenza pandemic. Such policies involve three key decisions: when, over what geographical scale, and how long to keep schools closed. Our evaluation includes uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, as well as model output uncertainties arising from variability in serial intervals and presumed modifications of social contacts during school dismissal periods. During the period before vaccines become widely available, school dismissals are particularly effective in delaying the epidemic peak, typically by 4-6 days for each additional week of dismissal. Assuming the surveillance is able to correctly and promptly diagnose at least 5-10% of symptomatic individuals within the jurisdiction, dismissals at the city or county level yield the greatest reduction in disease incidence for a given dismissal duration for all but the most severe pandemic scenarios considered here. Broader (multi-county) dismissals should be considered for the most severe and fast-spreading (1918-like) pandemics, in which multi-month closures may be necessary to delay the epidemic peak sufficiently to allow for vaccines to be implemented.

Transcriptome profiling revealed novel transcriptional regulators in maize responses to Ostrinia furnacalis and jasmonic acid.

Chewing insects cause severe yield losses in crop production worldwide. Crop plants counteract chewing insects by transcriptionally promoting a repertoire of defense gene products that are either toxic to, or attractive to the natural enemies of, pest insects. However, the complexity of the transcriptional reprogramming in plant defense response against chewing insects is still not well understood. In this study, the genome-wide early responses in maize seedlings to Asian corn borer (ACB, Ostrinia furnacalis) and also to jasmonic acid(JA), the pivotal phytohormone controlling plant defense response against herbivory, were transcriptionally profiled by RNA-Seq. Clustering of differentially expressed genes (DEGs) along with functional enrichment analysis revealed important biological processes regulated in response to ACB infestation and/or jasmonic acid. Moreover, DEGs with distinct expression patterns were differentially enriched with diverse families of cis-elements on their promoters. Multiple inventories of differentially expressed transcription factors (DETFs) in each DEG group were also analyzed. A transient expression assay using transfected maize protoplastswas established to examine the potential roles of DETFs in maize defense response and JA signaling, and this was used to show that ZmNAC60, an ACB- and JA-inducible DETF, represented a novel positive regulator of JA and defense pathway genes. This study provided a comprehensive transcriptional picture for the early dynamics of maize defense responses and JA signaling, and the identification of DETFs offered potential targets for further functional genomics investigation of master regulators in maize defense responses against herbivory.