ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of changes in import tariffs on sweetened beverages. DESIGN: Interrupted time series analysis was used to examine sweetened beverage tariff increases of 40-60 % in 2008 and to 75 % in 2012, and an approximately 11 % decrease in 2014 when an excise tax replaced the tariff. Post-tax trends were compared with a counterfactual modelled on the pre-tax trend for: quarterly price of an indicator beverage, monthly beverage import volumes (both 2001-2017) and quarterly sales volumes (2012-2017). In a controlled analysis, taxed beverage imports were compared with a sugary snacks control. SETTING: Cook Islands. PARTICIPANTS: NA. RESULTS: In the first year, after the 2008 tariff increase the price of the selected indicator soft drink increased by 7·3 % (95 % CI 6·3 %, 8·3 %) but after the 2012 tariff increase it decreased by 13·9 % (95 % CI -14·9 %, -12·8 %). At the same time, the import volumes of taxed beverages decreased by 13·2 % (95 % CI -38·1 %, 17·8 %) and 2·9 % (95 % CI -41·6 %, 72·5 %), respectively, and decreased by 24·8 % (95 % CI -36·9, -9·8) and 10·2 % (95 % CI -37·1, 37·5) in the controlled analysis. After the 2014 tax decrease, the price of the indicator soft drink decreased by 23·6 % (95 % CI -26·0 %, -21·1 %), sweetened beverage imports increased by 4·5 % (95 % CI -39·5 %, 156·0 %) and sales of full-sugar soft drinks increased by 31 % (95 % CI -21 %, 243 %). CONCLUSIONS: The increased import tariffs on sweetened beverages appeared to be effective for reducing import volumes, but this was partly reversed by the reduced tax/tariff in 2014.
Subject(s)
Sugar-Sweetened Beverages , Beverages , Commerce , Humans , Interrupted Time Series Analysis , TaxesABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to examine changes in beverage expenditure patterns before and after a T$0.50/L sweetened-beverage (SB) excise was introduced in Tonga in 2013, by household income, household age composition and island of residence. METHODS: Two cross-sectional surveys involved households being randomly sampled (the Household Income and Expenditure Surveys in 2009 (n = 1982) and 2015/16 (n = 1800)). Changes in soft drink (taxed), bottled water, and milk (both untaxed) expenditure were examined namely: (i) prevalence of households purchasing the beverage; (ii) average expenditure per person (inflation-adjusted); (iii) expenditure as a proportion of household food budget; and (iv) expenditure per person as a proportion of equivalised income. RESULTS: The pattern found was of decreases in all soft drink expenditure outcomes and these appeared to be greater in low-income than high-income households for purchasing prevalence (- 30% and - 25% respectively, t-test p = 0.98), per-capita expenditure (- 37% and - 34%, p = 0.20) and food budget share (- 27% and - 7%, p = 0.65), but not income share (- 6% and - 32%, p = 0.71). The large expenditure increases in bottled water appeared to be greater in low-income than high-income households for purchasing prevalence (355 and 172%, p = 0.32) and food budget share (665 and 468%, p = 0.09), but greater in high-income households for per-capita expenditure (121 and 373%, p < 0.01) and income share (83 and 397%, p = 0.50). CONCLUSIONS: The sweetened-beverage tax was associated with reduced soft drink purchasing and increased bottled water expenditure. Low-income households appeared to have slightly greater declines in soft drink expenditure.
Subject(s)
Commerce , Health Expenditures , Animals , Beverages , Cross-Sectional Studies , Humans , Taxes , TongaABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The Pacific Island nation of Tonga (a middle-income country) introduced a sweetened beverage tax of T$0.50/L in 2013, with this increasing further in 2016 (to T$1.00/L), and in 2017 (T$1.50/L; US$0.02/oz). Given the potential importance of such types of fiscal intervention for preventing chronic disease, we aimed to evaluate the impact of these tax changes in Tonga. METHODS: Interrupted time series analysis was used to examine monthly import volumes and quarterly price and manufacturing 1 year after each tax change, compared with a counterfactual based on existing trends. Autocorrelation was adjusted for when present, and adjustments were made for changes in GDP per capita, visitor numbers, season and T$/US$ exchange rate. RESULTS: In the year after the 2013, 2016 and 2017 tax increases, the price of an indicator soft drink increased by 16.8% (95%CI: 6.3 to 29.6), 3.7% (- 0.6 to 8.3) and 17.6% (6.0 to 32.0) respectively. Imports of sweetened beverages decreased with changes of - 10.4% (- 23.6 to 9.0), - 30.3% (- 38.8 to - 20.5) and - 62.5% (- 73.1 to - 43.4) respectively. Juice imports changed by - 54.2% (- 93.2 to - 1.1), and sachet drinks by - 15.5% (- 67.8 to 88.3) after the 2017 tax increase. Tonga water bottling (T$) increased in value by 143% (69 to 334) after the 2016 tax increase and soft drink manufacturing increased by 20% (2 to 46, albeit 5% market share). CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with international evaluations of sugar-sweetened beverage taxes, the taxes in Tonga were associated with increased prices, decreased taxed beverages imports, and increased locally bottled water.
Subject(s)
Commerce/trends , Interrupted Time Series Analysis/economics , Sugar-Sweetened Beverages/economics , Taxes , TongaABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: There is a need for accurate and precise food price elasticities (PE, change in consumer demand in response to change in price) to better inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. METHODS/DESIGN: The Price Experiment and Modelling (Price ExaM) study aims to: I) derive accurate and precise food PE values; II) quantify the impact of price changes on quantity and quality of discrete food group purchases and; III) model the potential health and disease impacts of a range of food taxes and subsidies. To achieve this, we will use a novel method that includes a randomised Virtual Supermarket experiment and econometric methods. Findings will be applied in simulation models to estimate population health impact (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) using a multi-state life-table model. The study will consist of four sequential steps: 1. We generate 5000 price sets with random price variation for all 1412 Virtual Supermarket food and beverage products. Then we add systematic price variation for foods to simulate five taxes and subsidies: a fruit and vegetable subsidy and taxes on sugar, saturated fat, salt, and sugar-sweetened beverages. 2. Using an experimental design, 1000 adult New Zealand shoppers complete five household grocery shops in the Virtual Supermarket where they are randomly assigned to one of the 5000 price sets each time. 3. Output data (i.e., multiple observations of price configurations and purchased amounts) are used as inputs to econometric models (using Bayesian methods) to estimate accurate PE values. 4. A disease simulation model will be run with the new PE values as inputs to estimate QALYs gained and health costs saved for the five policy interventions. DISCUSSION: The Price ExaM study has the potential to enhance public health and economic disciplines by introducing internationally novel scientific methods to estimate accurate and precise food PE values. These values will be used to model the potential health and disease impacts of various food pricing policy options. Findings will inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12616000122459 (registered 3 February 2016).
Subject(s)
Commerce/economics , Financing, Government/economics , Financing, Government/statistics & numerical data , Food/economics , Food/statistics & numerical data , Taxes/economics , Taxes/statistics & numerical data , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Australia , Bayes Theorem , Commerce/statistics & numerical data , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Models, Econometric , New Zealand , Young AdultABSTRACT
This article demonstrates the synthesis of 1,2,4-triazole derivatives and their applications in medicine particularly as anti-breast cancer agents which is a major issue of the present. The synthesized compounds were characterized by elemental analysis, FT-IR and NMR. DFT was used to study the quantum chemical calculations of geometries and vibrational wave numbers of 3-hydroxynaphthyl and p-tolyl substituted 1,2,4-triazoles in the ground state. The scaled harmonic vibrational frequencies obtained from the DFT method were compared with those of the FT-IR spectra and found good agreement. The synthesized 1,2,4-triazole-naphthyl hybrids were screened for the anticancer activity against MCF-7 breast cancer lines. Among them compounds 3 and 7 showed broad spectrum anticancer activity with IC50 values 9.7 µM and 7.10 µM, respectively and their activity is comparable to that of the standard drugs. The molecular model for binding between the compounds (1-8) and the active site of BRCA2 was obtained on the basis of the computational docking results and the structure-activity relationship.
Subject(s)
Antineoplastic Agents/chemistry , Antineoplastic Agents/pharmacology , Breast Neoplasms/pathology , Cell Proliferation/drug effects , Triazoles/chemistry , Triazoles/pharmacology , Antineoplastic Agents/chemical synthesis , Drug Design , Female , Humans , In Vitro Techniques , MCF-7 Cells , Models, Molecular , Triazoles/chemical synthesisABSTRACT
Pricing policies such as taxes and subsidies are important tools in preventing and controlling a range of threats to public health. This is particularly so in tobacco and alcohol control efforts and efforts to change dietary patterns and physical activity levels as a means of addressing increases in noncommunicable diseases. To understand the potential impact of pricing policies, it is critical to understand the nature of price elasticities for consumer products. For example, price elasticities are key parameters in models of any food tax or subsidy that aims to quantify health impacts and cost-effectiveness. We detail relevant terms and discuss key issues surrounding price elasticities to inform public health research and intervention studies.
Subject(s)
Biomedical Research/economics , Commerce/economics , Health Promotion/economics , Public Health , Biomedical Research/methods , Economics , Health Promotion/methods , Humans , Models, EconometricABSTRACT
Cancer classification and gene selection are important applications in DNA microarray gene expression data analysis. Since DNA microarray data suffers from the high-dimensionality problem, automatic gene selection methods are used to enhance the classification performance of expert classifier systems. In this paper, a new penalized logistic regression method that performs simultaneous gene coefficient estimation and variable selection in DNA microarray data is discussed. The method employs prior information about the gene coefficients to improve the classification accuracy of the underlying model. The coordinate descent algorithm with screening rules is given to obtain the gene coefficient estimates of the proposed method efficiently. The performance of the method is examined on five high-dimensional cancer classification datasets using the area under the curve, the number of selected genes, misclassification rate and F-score measures. The real data analysis results indicate that the proposed method achieves a good cancer classification performance with a small misclassification rate, large area under the curve and F-score by trading off some sparsity level of the underlying model. Hence, the proposed method can be seen as a reliable penalized logistic regression method in the scope of high-dimensional cancer classification.
ABSTRACT
This study uses the output volatility-augmented environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) model to determine the dynamic short- and long-term impacts of the volatility of economic growth (VOL) on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Turkey from 1980 to 2015. The results of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach indicate that there is a long-run relationship between CO2, per capita real GDP, per capita energy use, and VOL. The coefficients obtained from the ARDL estimation indicate that economic growth and energy use increase CO2 emissions, while VOL decreases CO2 emissions in the long run. Moreover, the coefficients obtained from the ARDL error correction model show that VOL decreases CO2 emissions in the short run, as well. We also find that the EKC is valid in Turkey. This implies for the Turkish case that achieving macro-stability under a "just transition" is key for achieving both economic and environmental benefits from ratifying international agreements such as Paris Agreement and EU Green Deal.
Subject(s)
Carbon Dioxide , Economic Development , Carbon Dioxide/analysis , Gross Domestic Product , Models, Theoretical , TurkeyABSTRACT
N-(1,3-Benzothiazol-2-yl)-N-(1,4,5,6-tetrahydro-1H-pyrimidine-2-yl) amine was synthesized and characterized by elemental analysis, FT-IR, NMR and X-ray single crystal diffraction. The compound structure belongs to the triclinic system with the P-1 space group with unit cell parameters a = 11.9290(4), b = 13.2547(4) and c = 15.3904(5) Å. Hirhsfeld surface analysis is performed to revealintermolecular interactions with these interactions. The molecular structure, vibrational spectroscopic data and HOMOs and LUMOs analyses were calculated by using the DFT/B3LYP method with the 6-311 + G(d,p)) basis set. Some of pharmacokinetic parameters and drug-likeness properties of the compound were also performed. Besides these, the present work is a searching to test N-(1,3-benzothiazol-2-yl)-N-(1,4,5,6-tetrahydro-1H-pyrimidine-2-yl) amine as an inhibitor for the SARS-CoV-2. For this aim, the molecular docking analysis of the synthesized compound was applied along with Favipiravir. Besides the docking results, ADMET properties of the compound were also calculated.Communicated by Ramaswamy H. Sarma.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humans , Molecular Docking Simulation , Spectroscopy, Fourier Transform Infrared , Models, Molecular , Pyrimidines/pharmacology , Pyrimidines/chemistry , AminesABSTRACT
PURPOSE: To estimate the association between same-sex marriage legalization and deaths by suicide among youth. METHODS: The study used country-level suicide data sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study for all 36 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries for the period 1991-2017. We analyzed the suicide rates of all youth, male youth, and female youth aged 10-24 years using multiple policy-evaluation methods-difference-in-differences, matrix completion, and generalized synthetic control via expectation-maximization-to estimate the impact of same-sex marriage legalization at the country level. Secondary analysis considered several covariate specifications, evaluated the immediacy and persistence of the estimated associations, and assessed whether any observed association was limited to early adopters of same-sex marriage. RESULTS: The state-of-the-art matrix completion analysis indicated that same-sex marriage legalization was associated with a decline in the youth suicide rate of 1.191 deaths per 100,000 individuals (95% CI = -1.66, -.64; p < .001), corresponding to a reduction of 17.90% compared to the youth suicide rate at the time of legalization. This decline was most pronounced in males for whom the suicide rate fell by 1.993 (CI = -2.76, -1.12; p < .001) compared to a decrease of .348 for female youth (CI = -.60, -.06; p = .02), corresponding to decreases of 19.98% and 10.90%, respectively. These associations persisted after legalization, but to differing degrees depending on model specification. CONCLUSIONS: Developed countries that are yet to legalize same-sex marriage have an opportunity to put downward pressure on youth suicide.
Subject(s)
Marriage , Suicide , Adolescent , Female , Humans , MaleABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To systematically characterise sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax policy changes in Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs) from 2000 to 2019. METHODS: Medline, Google Scholar, Pacific Islands Legal Information Institute database, Factiva and news and government websites were systematically searched up to October 2019. Information was extracted on the date and SSB tax level change, tax type, included beverages, and earmarking; and checked for consistency with local experts. RESULTS: Three-quarters of PICTs had an SSB tax (n=16/21) and 11 of these were excise taxes that included both imported and locally produced beverages. The level of tax was over 20% in 14 jurisdictions. SSB tax was increased by more than 20 percentage points in eight PICTs. Most taxes were ad valorem or volumetric, three were earmarked and only two taxes targeted sugar-sweetened fruit juices. The majority of countries (14/21) had different tax rates for imported and locally produced beverages. CONCLUSIONS: More than three-quarters of PICTs have SSB taxes. More than one-third increased these taxes since 2000 at an amount that is expected to reduce soft drink consumption. Implications for public health: Despite high-quality tax design elements in some PICTs, SSB control policies could generally be strengthened to improve health benefits, e.g. by targeting all SSBs and earmarking revenue for health.
Subject(s)
Commerce , Sugar-Sweetened Beverages/economics , Taxes , Consumer Behavior , Humans , Pacific Islands , PolicyABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Food taxes and subsidies are one intervention to address poor diets. Price elasticity (PE) matrices are commonly used to model the change in food purchasing. Usually a PE matrix is generated in one setting then applied to another setting with differing starting consumptions and prices of foods. This violates econometric assumptions resulting in likely mis-estimation of total food consumption. In this paper we demonstrate this problem, canvass possible options for rescaling all consumption after applying a PE matrix, and illustrate the use of a total food expenditure elasticity (TFEe; the expenditure elasticity for all food combined given the policy-induced change in the total price of food). We use case studies of: NZ$2 per 100g saturated fat (SAFA) tax, NZ$0.4 per 100g sugar tax, and a 20% fruit and vegetable (F&V) subsidy. METHODS: We estimated changes in food purchasing using a NZ PE matrix applied conventionally, and then with TFEe adjustment. Impacts were quantified for pre- to post-policy changes in total food expenditure and health adjusted life years (HALYs) for the total NZ population alive in 2011 over the rest of their lifetime using a multistate lifetable model. RESULTS: Two NZ studies gave TFEe's of 0.68 and 0.83, with international estimates ranging from 0.46 to 0.90 (except a UK outlier of 0.04). Without TFEe adjustment, total food expenditure decreased with the tax policies and increased with the F&V subsidy-implausible directions of shift given economic theory and the external TFEe estimates. After TFEe adjustment, HALY gains reduced by a third to a half for the two taxes and reversed from an apparent health loss to a health gain for the F&V subsidy. With TFEe adjustment, HALY gains (in 1000's) were: 1,805 (95% uncertainty interval 1,337 to 2,340) for the SAFA tax; 1,671 (1,220 to 2,269) for the sugar tax; and 953 (453 to 1,308) for the F&V subsidy. CONCLUSIONS: If PE matrices are applied in settings beyond where they were derived, additional scaling is likely required. We suggest that the TFEe is a useful scalar, but we also encourage other researchers to examine this issue and propose alternative options.
Subject(s)
Consumer Behavior/economics , Food/economics , Health Expenditures , Marketing , Models, Economic , Taxes/economics , HumansABSTRACT
The aim was to conduct a systematic review of real-world sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax evaluations and examine the overall impact on beverage purchases and dietary intake by meta-analysis. Medline, EconLit, Google Scholar, and Scopus databases were searched up to June 2018. SSB tax evaluations from any formal jurisdiction from cities to national governments were eligible if there was a comparison between pre-post tax (n = 11) or taxed and untaxed jurisdiction(s) (n = 6). The consumption outcome comprised sales, purchasing, and intake (reported by volume, energy, or frequency). Taxed and untaxed beverage consumption outcomes were examined separately by meta-analysis with adjustment for the size of each tax. The study was registered at PROSPERO (CRD42018100620). The equivalent of a 10% SSB tax was associated with an average decline in beverage purchases and dietary intake of 10.0% (95% CI: -5.0% to -14.7%, n = 17 studies, 6 jurisdictions) with considerable heterogeneity between results (I2 = 97%).The equivalent of a 10% SSB tax was also associated with a nonsignificant 1.9% increase in total untaxed beverage consumption (eg, water) (95% CI: -2.1% to 6.1%, n = 6 studies, 4 jurisdictions). Based on real-world evaluations, SSB taxes introduced in jurisdictions around the world appear to have been effective in reducing SSB purchases and dietary intake.
Subject(s)
Consumer Behavior/statistics & numerical data , Obesity/prevention & control , Sugar-Sweetened Beverages/statistics & numerical data , Taxes/statistics & numerical data , Commerce , Consumer Behavior/economics , Energy Intake , Humans , Sugar-Sweetened Beverages/economicsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Most evidence on health-related food taxes and subsidies relies on observational data and effects on single nutrients or foods instead of total diet. The aim of this study was to measure the effect of randomly assigned food price variations on consumer purchasing, where sets of prices emulated commonly discussed food tax and subsidy policies, including a subsidy on fruit and vegetables, a sweetened beverage tax, and taxes on foods according to sugar, sodium, and saturated fat content. METHODS: In this study, adult participants (≥18 years) in New Zealand completed up to five weekly shops in a virtual supermarket. Each shopping occasion was randomly allocated to control (no change in prices) or one or more pricing options simulating the following: a fruit and vegetable subsidy (20%), a sweetened beverage tax (20% or 40%), a saturated fat tax (NZ$2 per 100 g or $4 per 100 g saturated fat), a salt tax ($0·02 per 100 mg or $0·04 per 100 mg sodium), or sugar tax ($0·40 per 100 g or $0·80 per 100 g sugar). The primary outcome was the healthiness of the total shopping basket for each weekly shop (% of total unit food items defined as healthy). Low and high price change options were combined in analyses (eg, results for a saturated fat tax are an average of $2 per 100 g or $4 per 100 g). FINDINGS: Between Feb 1, and Dec 1, 2016, we randomly assigned 1132 shoppers, of whom 1038 (91·7%) completed at least one shop and 743 (71·6%) completed all five shops. Overall, data from 4258 shops were included in the analysis, including 645 control shops, 2545 shops where one policy was activated, and 1068 shops with two (or more) policies activated. In the control condition, 67·90% (SD 13·01) of food purchases were classified as healthy. Three of the five policies increased this proportion by a small, but significant amount (saturated fat tax mean absolute difference 1·77%, 95% CI 1·03 to 2·52, p<0·0001; sugar tax 1·09%, 0·26 to 1·91, p=0·0099; and salt tax 1·31%, 0·50 to 2·13, p=0·0016). The sweetened beverage tax and fruit and vegetable subsidy resulted in non-significant increases of 0·18% (95% CI -0·49 to 0·85, p=0·60) and 0·41% (-0·26 to 1·07, p=0·23), respectively. Both the saturated fat tax and salt tax resulted in the following important substitution effects: an increase in fruit and vegetable purchases as a percentage by weight of all food purchases (saturated fat tax 4·0%, 0·9 to 7·1; salt tax 4·3%, 0·9 to 7·7); but also an increase in sugar as a percentage of total energy (saturated fat tax 5·0%, 2·1 to 7·9; salt tax 3·2%, 0·0 to 6·5). Interaction terms for combined policies were mostly non-significant, consistent with additive effects of policy combinations. INTERPRETATION: Price changes representing saturated fat, sugar, and salt taxes increased total healthy food purchases. As we observed important substitution effects, a combination of different tax and subsidy policies might be the most effective way to improve diets and decrease diet-related chronic diseases. FUNDING: Health Research Council of New Zealand.
Subject(s)
Commerce/statistics & numerical data , Consumer Behavior/statistics & numerical data , Food/economics , Adult , Female , Humans , MaleABSTRACT
Methyl N-arylthiocarbamates (2a-d) and dimethyl N-aryldithiocarbonimidates (2e-i) were synthesized from the reaction of aromatic amines with carbon disulfide and methyl iodide and NaOH in various quantitative amounts. 2-Arylamino-2-imidazolines (3a-i) were prepared by heating both methyl N-arylthiocarbamates (2a-d) and dimethyl N-aryldithiocarbonimidates (2e-i) with 1,2-diaminoethane under reflux. o-chlorobenzyl derivatives of [1,3,4]-thiadiazole-2-yl substituted aminoimidazoline compounds were synthesized by treatment of [1,3,4]-thiadiazole-2-yl substituted aminoimidazolines (3h-i) with 2-benzyl chloride in basic medium and DMSO. Some of the synthesized compounds were tested in vitro for their antimicrobial activity. All of the selected compounds showed some antimicrobial activity against test microorganisms. Compounds 2f and 3f which have 1,3-benzothiazol ring exhibited a weak activity against Candida globrata.
Subject(s)
Anti-Infective Agents/chemical synthesis , Anti-Infective Agents/pharmacology , Bacteria/drug effects , Candida glabrata/drug effects , Imidazolines/chemical synthesis , Imidazolines/pharmacology , Imidoesters/chemical synthesis , Imidoesters/pharmacology , Microbial Sensitivity Tests , Structure-Activity Relationship , Thiocarbamates/chemical synthesis , Thiocarbamates/pharmacologyABSTRACT
A computational Petra/Osiris/Molinspiration/DFT(POM/DFT) based model has been developed for the identification of physico-chemical parameters governing the bioactivity of ruthenium-staurosporine complexes 2-4 containing an antitumoral-kinase (TK) pharmacophore sites. The four compounds 1-4 analyzed here were previously screened for their antitumor activity, compounds 2 and 4 are neutral, whereas analogue compound 3 is a monocation with ruthenium(II) centre. The highest anti- antitumor activity was obtained for compounds 3 and 4, which exhibited low IC(50) values (0.45 and 8 nM, respectively), superior to staurosporine derivative (pyridocarbazole ligand 1, 150 · 10(3) nM). The IC(50) of 3 (0.45 nM), represents 20,000 fold increased activity as compared to staurosporine derivative 1. The increase of bioactivity could be attributed to the existence of pi-charge transfer from metal-staurosporine to its (CO(δ)--NH(δ+)) antitumor pharmacophore site.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Health-related food taxes and subsidies may promote healthier diets and reduce mortality. Our aim was to estimate the effects of health-related food taxes and subsidies on deaths prevented or postponed (DPP) in New Zealand. METHODS: A macrosimulation model based on household expenditure data, demand elasticities and population impact fractions for 18 diet-related diseases was used to estimate effects of five tax and subsidy regimens. We used price elasticity values for 24 major commonly consumed food groups in New Zealand, and food expenditure data from national Household Economic Surveys. Changes in mortality from cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and other diet-related diseases were estimated. FINDINGS: A 20% subsidy on fruit and vegetables would result in 560 (95% uncertainty interval, 400 to 700) DPP each year (1.9% annual all-cause mortality). A 20% tax on major dietary sources of saturated fat would result in 1,500 (950 to 2,100) DPP (5.0%), and a 20% tax on major dietary sources of sodium would result in 2,000 (1300 to 2,700) DPP (6.8%). Combining taxes on saturated fat and sodium with a fruit and vegetable subsidy would result in 2,400 (1,800 to 3,000) DPP (8.1% mortality annually). A tax on major dietary sources of greenhouse gas emissions would generate 1,200 (750 to 1,700) DPP annually (4.0%). Effects were similar or greater for Maori and low-income households in relative terms. CONCLUSIONS: Health-related food taxes and subsidies could improve diets and reduce mortality from diet-related disease in New Zealand. Our study adds to the growing evidence base suggesting food pricing policies should improve population health and reduce inequalities, but there is still much work to be done to improve estimation of health impacts.
Subject(s)
Diet/economics , Disease/economics , Epidemiologic Studies , Food/economics , Health/economics , Models, Econometric , Mortality , Taxes/economics , Ethnicity , Humans , Income , New Zealand/epidemiologyABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Targeted food pricing policies may improve population diets. To assess their effects on inequalities, it is important to determine responsiveness to price changes across income levels and ethnic groups. OBJECTIVE: Our goal was to estimate price elasticity (PE) values for major commonly consumed food groups in New Zealand, by income and ethnicity. PE values represent percentage change in demand associated with 1% change in price of that good (own-PE) or another good (cross-PE). DESIGN: We used food expenditure data from national household economic surveys in 2007/08 and 2009/10 and Food Price Index data from 2007 and 2010. Adopting an Almost Ideal Demand System approach, own-PE and cross-PE estimates were derived for 24 food categories, household income quintiles, and two ethnic groups (Maori and non-Maori). RESULTS: Own-PE estimates (with two exceptions) ranged from -0.44 to -1.78. Cross-PE estimates were generally small; only 31% of absolute values were greater than 0.10. Excluding the outlier 'energy drinks', nine of 23 food groups had significantly stronger own-PEs for the lowest versus highest income quintiles (average regression-based difference across food groups -0.30 (95% CI -0.62 to 0.02)). Six own-PEs were significantly stronger among Maori; the average difference for Maori: non-Maori across food groups was -0.26 (95% CI -0.52 to 0.00). CONCLUSIONS: Food pricing policies have potential to improve population diets. The greater sensitivity of low-income households and Maori to price changes suggests the beneficial effects of such policies on health would be greatest for these groups.